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Orioles Notes: Elias, Middle Infield, Mancini, Ynoa, Mallee

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Orioles GM Mike Elias addressed several topics in an interview on 105.7 The Fan radio tonight, with MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter links) and MLB.com’s Joe Trezza (Twitter links) among the reporters who shared some highlights.  Elias noted that the Orioles’ winter shopping list includes pitching, veteran middle infield help, and a defensive shortstop.  Such a focus on the middle infield doesn’t necessarily indicate a change from the combination of shortstop Jonathan Villar and second baseman Hanser Alberto, though given Villar’s big $10.4MM projected arbitration salary has led to a lot of speculation that the O’s will look to trade or non-tender him.  While not mentioning any names, Elias said the club has to make “tough decisions” in regards to whether or not to tender contracts to all seven of their arb-eligible players.

In other general transactional news, Elias again stated that his front office is open to listening on trade offers for any player as Baltimore continues its rebuild.  This includes Trey Mancini, though Elias said “we expect him to stay here,” noting that he hopes Mancini could be signed to a long-term contract.

More from Charm City…

  • Gabriel Ynoa re-signed with the Orioles the same day that he was outrighted off their 40-man roster last offseason, though another quick reunion doesn’t appear likely this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  It isn’t to say that Ynoa might not return on another minor league deal, but the righty will first see if he can land a Major League contract — possibly a tall order after a 2019 season that saw Ynoa post a 5.61 ERA, 2.58 K/BB rate, and 5.4 K/9 over 110 1/2 innings for Baltimore, while surrendering a whopping 29 home runs.  The O’s may also look for more accomplished pitching options before maybe circling back to Ynoa later in the offseason.
  • From that same piece, Kubatko also reports that the Orioles had John Mallee as a candidate to join the team’s coaching staff before Mallee accepted a position with the Angels as their new assistant hitting coach.  Mallee had some significant ties to the Orioles, as he and manager Brandon Hyde both worked together on the Cubs’ coaching staff under Joe Maddon, and Mallee was the Astros’ hitting coach in 2013-14 when Baltimore GM Mike Elias was working in Houston’s front office.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Newly-hired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom faces an immediate challenge in getting the Red Sox back to the postseason while simultaneously navigating a difficult payroll situation.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After 15 seasons in the Rays’ front office, Bloom is no stranger to the difficulties of trying to manage a payroll while also trying to keep a competitive team on the field.  It’s just that now, Bloom will be dealing with a payroll more than three times as larger than anything he ever dealt with in Tampa Bay — not to mention exponentially more pressure from fans, media, and his own bosses.  As evidenced with predecessors Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski, not even a recent World Series victory can save the head of a Red Sox front office if team ownership isn’t satisfied with immediate results.

As of late September, the organization’s plan was to get under the $208MM Competitive Balance Bax threshold, though Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy somewhat walked that back by stating that avoiding the luxury tax was a “goal but not a mandate.”  The Sox have exceeded the CBT threshold in each of the last two seasons, and thus as a three-time repeater would face a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM line in 2020, plus an added 12.5% surtax if their luxury payroll falls within the $228-$248MM range.

As currently comprised, the Red Sox have a luxury tax number of just over $236.3MM (as per Roster Resource) for next season.  Ducking under the $228MM mark seems feasible.  However, it would take some judicious cutting and/or creative trades to slide under the $208MM threshold and reset Boston’s tax penalties entirely, given the number of needs on the roster.

Obligatory reminder: the luxury tax is not an exorbitantly punitive sum.  Exceeding the top level of the luxury tax in 2018 cost the Red Sox roughly $11.95MM (and a ten-slot drop in their 2019 draft order), and their 2019 tax penalty will be in the neighborhood of $13.05MM, as per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, with no change to their draft position.  Every organization has a budget, and it’s understandable that Red Sox ownership is less willing to pay tax penalties for an 84-win team than it was for a World Series champion, but there isn’t any concrete reason why Boston (or any big-market team) should be treating the CBT as an actual salary cap.  There is surely no small amount of annoyance within the MLBPA and the player agent community that another large-market franchise is seemingly more focused on trimming payroll instead of spending.

It’s also worth noting that Boston’s payroll situation would be a lot clearer if ownership hadn’t given Dombrowski the green light to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi in free agency last winter or to give Chris Sale a five-year extension that begins in 2020.  Those two contracts, plus the $96MM still owed to David Price, now all loom large as question marks after all three pitchers battled injuries last season.  Some level of a rebound is certainly possible, but it’s unlikely that all three will be healthy and pitch up to peak standards next year, leaving the Red Sox without much flexibility for rotation upgrades.  Eduardo Rodriguez has a checkered injury history of his own, but the southpaw was a bright spot last season, posting a 3.81 ERA over a career-high 203 1/3 innings.

For the remaining rotation spot, the Sox could look to sign any number of low-cost veterans, and maybe even reunite with Rick Porcello.  Or, since the Red Sox already began using openers last season, the club could instead deploy a full-time opener/bulk pitcher combo in the fifth starter position rather than a proper starting pitcher.  Given that Bloom was one of the architects of the opener strategy in Tampa Bay, this might be a more likely (and cost-effective) route for the Sox to take rather than spend a few extra million on an innings-eating starter.  It might not even be out of the question for the team to explore putting an opener in front of Eovaldi, if injuries continue to be a factor.

A deep bullpen is a necessity for a team using an opener, and the relief corps is another area of need.  Brandon Workman’s role will be of interest, as the veteran righty emerged as Boston’s closer down the stretch and posted an impressive 1.88 ERA and 13.1 K/9 over 71 2/3 innings.  There was some volatility in those numbers, as Workman (like virtually every Sox reliever in 2019) had control issues (5.7 BB/9).

The Red Sox could prefer to use Workman in a setup role rather than as a closer, or at least acquire another arm who has ninth-inning experience as depth to work behind Workman.  Sergio Romo is a known quantity to Bloom from his time in Tampa, and Romo would also come at a much lower price than other top relievers on the market; a play for Will Smith seems out of the question, and Boston’s spending concerns could possibly even keep them out of the Will Harris/Drew Pomeranz tier.  Names like Chris Martin, Craig Stammen, or Daniel Hudson could all be considered, as could a pursuit of a bounce-back candidate Dellin Betances.

Turning to position players, one of the team’s biggest offseason questions has already been answered, as J.D. Martinez decided not to opt out of the remaining three years of his contract.  An opt-out would’ve taken $22MM in average annual salary off of Boston’s books and given them more tax breathing room, though it would’ve come at the cost of one of the game’s best sluggers.

Instead, Martinez will now rejoin Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers in one of the sport’s most fearsome lineup quartets.  Catcher Christian Vazquez enjoyed the best hitting season of his career, though the Sox will be looking for more from Andrew Benintendi in 2020 after the outfielder scuffled through a down year.

With Mitch Moreland and Brock Holt headed for free agency, and Dustin Pedroia’s playing future still unclear, both first base and second base are up for grabs.  Michael Chavis had a solid rookie year and is a candidate for regular playing time at either position.  Top prospect Bobby Dalbec could work his way into the first base conversation as early as next season.  A left-handed bat would be the ideal complement to the right-handed hitting Chavis and Dalbec, and for both bat-sided and versatility reasons, re-signing Holt (or a Holt type like Eric Sogard) would make a lot of sense.  Bringing Moreland back is also possible if the Red Sox are comfortable with Chavis as a second baseman, but the team will have plenty of options to consider on the crowded first base/DH market.

The Red Sox have already cut down on their projected arbitration costs by parting ways with Steven Wright, Gorkys Hernandez, and Chris Owings, while also adding lefty Josh Osich to the list after claiming him from the White Sox.  That results in a projected savings of $4.5MM, and a bit more money could be saved if the Sox non-tendered Sandy Leon or Marco Hernandez.  As much as the Sox prize Leon’s defense and game-calling abilities, they could see $2.8MM as a high price for a player with no offensive value.

As generally strong as this position player mix looks, there has been a great deal of speculation about whether all of the key players will be back in 2020.  Injuries and contracts make Price, Sale, and Eovaldi difficult to trade — to varying extents.  Unless the Sox take another unfavorable contract back in return, pay down some of the remaining salary and/or attach young talent from their already-thin minor league system to entice a rival team to absorb one of these salaries, they’ll have a difficult time finding a taker.  Therefore, the easiest route to creating payroll space would be to trade a high-salaried position player.

Bogaerts clearly isn’t going anywhere, and Martinez will be able to modify his three-team no-trade list later this month, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link).  Given the lack of win-now teams with a DH opening, that list can be tailored to the current market, thus making a Martinez trade difficult for Boston.  That leaves Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. as the likeliest candidates to be dealt.  Bradley is projected for an $11MM salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility — a hefty number for a player who has had below-average offensive production for the last three seasons and (of greater concern) also had a drop-off with the glove in 2019, according to the UZR/150 (-1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (-1).

The Red Sox don’t plan to non-tender Bradley, as they’ll explore trade possibilities in an offseason that doesn’t feature much in the way of interesting free-agent center fielders.  Moving Bradley for a starter, reliever, first baseman, or second baseman would be a canny way of addressing a need if not necessarily saving on payroll, though any number of multi-player arrangements could be explored.  In terms of replacing Bradley, Betts or Benintendi could be moved into center field, with the Sox then acquiring a lower-cost corner outfielder.

And then there’s the possibility of a Betts trade, which would be much more of a game-changer.  Betts is only under contract for one more season, and he has been open about his interest in reaching the free agent market rather than signing an extension with the Red Sox (though he has said he enjoys playing in Boston).  With Martinez and his salary back in the fold, it could increase the chances of Betts being dealt, as painful as it would be to unload one of the game’s best players.

To land Betts, a team would have to be willing to give up a noteworthy combination of big league-ready young talent and prospects for just one season of Betts’ services, and also be capable of absorbing his $27.7MM in projected salary.  In exploring the Betts trade market last month, I listed the Phillies, Reds, Mets, and Padres as perhaps the best candidates since all four teams are aggressively planning to contend in 2020, though it’s possible more clubs could enter the mix depending on how other offseason business plays out.

The Rays swung several creative trades during Bloom’s tenure, so any number of multi-team possibilities could be explored to create a Betts deal that would most benefit the Sox from both a financial and player return standpoint.  One would imagine, however, that Bloom will look into myriad cost-cutting measures before getting around to the Plan C or Plan D that would be a Betts trade.  Kennedy’s comments suggest that the Red Sox could settle for just getting into the lowest tier (spending between $208MM-$228MM) of luxury tax penalties, if avoiding the tax entirely will severely hamper the team’s chances of competing in 2020.

Ownership has made it clear that winning is still the priority, so the Red Sox will try to emulate the Dodgers (led by Andrew Friedman, Bloom’s old boss in Tampa Bay) in escaping luxury tax purgatory while still reaching the postseason on an annual basis.  It will be a tall order, though with all the talent already on the roster, the Sox could only be a few moves — albeit perhaps large moves — away from another playoff berth.

Red Sox Notes: JDM, Betts, Trades, Porcello

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Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy felt J.D. Martinez’s opt-out decision “was a hard one to read” and “I honestly thought it could go either way,” though Kennedy is obviously pleased to have Martinez back in the fold, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes.  Martinez’s choice will naturally have a big impact on Boston’s financial situation, particularly since the team is looking to shed some payroll and possibly get under the luxury tax threshold, though Kennedy was only focused on what Martinez’s return will mean for the club on the field.

“You never want to lose a talented player.  Of course, there are hard decisions teams have to make in terms of parting ways with guys in every sport,” Kennedy said.  “What J.D. Martinez has done for the Red Sox and hopefully will continue to do, is not just a big bat in the middle of the lineup.  He also helps elevate other players on the team and that’s widely documented.  That’s helpful.  That’s a good thing.  Now we move on.”

More from Fenway Park…

  • It isn’t yet known if Martinez staying will make it more likely that the Sox could trade Mookie Betts in order to solve their luxury tax issues, though Kennedy said (via Cotillo) the club is still hoping to enter into extension talks this winter.  “We love Mookie Betts….We’ve engaged in discussions with him and his representatives in the past and we’ll continue to engage with them,” Kennedy said.  No negotiations have taken place to date this offseason, which isn’t surprising given that most teams wait until closer to Spring Training to begin extension talks (plus, Chaim Bloom was only just hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer).  While the Sox have been proactive in locking up in-house stars over the years, most recently inking Xander Bogaerts and Chris Sale to extensions last spring.  Betts, however, has been clear about his desire to test the free agency after the 2020 season, and with the open market now less than a year away, it remains to be seen if the Red Sox can get anywhere in convincing him to stay.
  • Whether Betts is part of a blockbuster deal or not, Bloom’s hiring would seem to indicate that the Sox will be much more active on the trade market under their new front office boss than they were under Dave Dombrowski.  Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes that since the start of November 2016, when Bloom and Rays GM Erik Neander took over Tampa’s front office, the Rays swung 65 different trades.  In that same timeframe, the Sox made only 21 deals.  While the two franchises are obviously in quite different places in terms of payroll and roster creation strategy, it does stand to reason that trades may be a much larger part of Boston’s efforts to reshape the team.
  • Could a reunion with Rick Porcello be in the cards?  The Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato looks at the pros and cons, noting that Porcello perhaps could have a rebound year and, at worst, will eat innings within a rotation full of injury question marks.  That said, Bloom (who has no past history with Porcello) could prefer to acquire a starter with a higher potential ceiling, and who’d cost less than what Porcello is likely to find on the open market.  MLBTR projects Porcello for a one-year, $11MM contract — no small amount for a Red Sox team that is ideally trying to avoid the luxury tax.

Tigers Re-Sign Five Players To Minors Contracts

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The Tigers announced that left-hander Nick Ramirez, right-handers Tim Adleman and Anthony Castro, outfielder Jose Azocar, and first baseman Frank Schwindel have all been re-signed to minor league contracts.  Ramirez and Schwindel were the only members of this quintet to see MLB action in 2019, as both made their big league debuts.

The 30-year-old Ramirez made a fairly solid first accounting of himself in the big leagues, posting a 4.07 ERA, 2.11 K/BB rate, 46.2% grounder rate, and 8.4 K/9 over 79 2/3 relief innings.  He also held left-handed hitters to only a .644 OPS over 117 plate appearances, and while his numbers against right-handed batters weren’t as good (.801 OPS in 231 PA), the splits weren’t drastic enough to make Ramirez a non-viable option for 2020 given the new three-batter minimum rule being instituted.  Since Ramirez pitched beyond one inning in 28 of his 46 games, his durability and multi-inning usage make him an intriguing choice to return to the Tigers’ pen next season.

Schwindel signed with the Tigers in June after being released by the Royals the previous month.  Originally an 18th-round pick for Kansas City in the 2013 draft, Schwindel cracked the Show in his seventh pro season, appearing in six games for the Royals.  For his career, Schwindel has a .285/.318/.472 slash line and 118 home runs over 3222 minor league plate appearances.

Mariners Announce Coaching Changes

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The Mariners have unveiled their coaching staff for the 2020 season, with three new faces joining the crew.  Pete Woodworth will replace Paul Davis as Seattle’s pitching coach, as Davis will take on a new position as the organization’s chief pitching strategist.  Carson Vitale will be the team’s new Major League field coordinator, while Jarret DeHart will become the assistant hitting coach, working alongside second-year hitting coach Tim Laker.

All three are internal hires, coming up to the big league club after previously working in the Mariners’ farm system.  Woodward has been moving up the affiliate ranks as a pitching coach for the last four seasons, most recently serving as the pitching coach for Double-A Arkansas.  Vitale has been the Mariners’ minor league field coordinator for the last two seasons.  DeHart has also been with the organization for the last two years, working as the hitting coach for the M’s Arizona League team in 2018 and spending last season as a roving minor league hitting strategist.

The coaching staff as a whole will have a different yet familiar look, as several incumbent coaches will be taking on new roles.  Jared Sandberg, who was the previous Major League field coordinator, will now be Scott Servais’ bench coach.  Manny Acta, who worked as bench coach for the last two seasons and as the third base coach in 2016-17, will be coaching at the hot corner once again, replacing the departing Chris Prieto.

Brian De Lunas is another coach resuming an old position, as he will step into the bullpen coach job that was held by Jim Brower in 2019.  De Lunas was Seattle’s bullpen coach in 2018 before working as director of pitching development strategies in 2019.

Laker and first base/infield coach Perry Hill will both be back in their same coaching roles in 2020.

AL East Notes: Chapman, Yankees, Liu, Edwin

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Some items from around the AL East…

  • Negotiations between Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees about the closer’s contract extension apparently came down to the final moments before the deadline for Chapman to decide whether or not to exercise his opt-out clause, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Chapman was hoping to have two extra years added onto the remaining two years on his pre-existing contract, but ultimately settled for just one extra season ($18MM for the 2022 season).
  • The impact of Chapman’s new contract on the Yankees’ luxury tax situation is examined by Joel Sherman of the New York Post, who observes that the extension won’t lead to any savings due to the “true-up charge” associated with the specific breakdown of how Chapman’s salaries were paid out over the first three years of his deal, largely due to a signing bonus payout.  As a result, Chapman’s new tax number is $17.5MM over the next three years, which doesn’t help alleviate the crunch for a Yankees team that Sherman figures is already approaching the $208MM threshold for 2020 just with pre-existing roster talent.  The Yankees will face tax penalties for surpassing the second level ($226MM) of the tax threshold in 2019, and it remains to be seen how far over the $208MM threshold ownership will allow the front office to go in 2020.  As Sherman notes, ownership would presumably balk at surpassing the top penalty level of $248MM, which would impact the Yankees’ chances of adding a mega-salary (i.e. for a Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg) and retaining free agents like Didi Gregorius or Dellin Betances.
  • A brief scouting report on newly-signed Red Sox right-hander Chih-Jung Liu is provided by former big leaguer Chien-Ming Wang to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, as Wang has worked with the 20-year-old prospect.  Liu “needs to improve his slider and splitter to have a good out pitch” and “needs to build up his arm strength and pitch count,” Wang said.  These aren’t unusual criticisms for any young pitcher, especially for a case like Liu, who mostly played shortstop in high school and only recently got back into pitching.  Liu is also “bright” and “seems to be able to adapt to [a] new environment quickly,” Wang said, and he also noted that Liu asked him how to throw a sinkerball, Wang’s signature pitch.  Abraham reports that the Phillies and Diamondbacks were among the other teams who had interest in Liu before the Red Sox signed him for $750K.
  • Now that Edwin Encarnacion is officially a free agent, could the slugger potentially return to the Blue Jays?  There is room on paper, as Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have a vacancy at first base/DH since Justin Smoak is also headed for free agency, and Encarnacion could likely be had on a fairly inexpensive one-year deal.  However, with the Blue Jays still in rebuild mode, Nicholson-Smith figures it probably makes more sense for the club to “find the next Encarnacion instead,” i.e. a player who can be an important contributor for several years.  Toronto GM Ross Atkins has also spoken of wanting a first baseman who can play multiple positions, while Encarnacion is limited to first base (and could best be suited for a DH role altogether).

Jake Arrieta Declines To Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Phillies righty Jake Arrieta won’t exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, keeping him in his deal with the Phillies for the 2020 season, the Associated Press reports.  Arrieta will earn $20MM for the 2020 season, the final year of the three-year, $75MM pact he signed with Philadelphia in March 2018.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported in October that Arrieta was going to remain with the Phillies, and indeed, it became increasingly obvious throughout the veteran right-hander’s injury-marred year that the opt-out clause wouldn’t be a factor.  Arrieta revealed in July that he was trying to keep pitching despite suffering from a bone spur in his throwing elbow, and while he toughed it out as long as possible, Arrieta eventually hit the injured list in mid-August and soon underwent season-ending surgery.

The end result was a 4.64 ERA, 2.16 K/BB rate, and 7.3 K/9 over 135 2/3 innings for Arrieta, easily his least-impressive performance since his early-career struggles as a member of the Orioles in 2010-12.  Arrieta posted by far the largest hard-hit ball (38%) and home run (19.4%) percentages of his career, while his 7.1% swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest total of his career.

Arrieta’s stay in the 2017-18 free agent market was a lengthy one, as he was hampered by the qualifying offer and a feeling amongst some teams that he was beginning to a decline following a good but not great 2017 season with the Cubs.  Over two seasons with the Phillies, Arrieta has a 4.26 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 51.4% grounder rate, and 2.30 K/BB rate — decent numbers, though hardly what the Phils expected from a pitcher earning $25MM in average annual value.

The best-case scenario for Arrieta and the Phillies is that the bone spur was the root cause of his struggles, and he’ll rebound for a healthy and productive age-34 season.  That would be a welcome boost to a Phillies team that was let down by its starting pitching almost across the board last season, though Philadelphia is expected to be pursuing some upgrades this winter.  A good year from Arrieta would also increase his chances at another multi-year in free agency next offseason, as a repeat of his 2019 numbers would likely limit his market to only one-year offers.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays won 96 games to return to the postseason in style, defeating the A’s in the wild card game and then taking the Astros to five games in the ALDS.  Tampa Bay will now look to put the final touches on a roster that can get the franchise back into the World Series.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Blake Snell, SP: $46MM through 2023
  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $36MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Brandon Lowe, 2B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10.5MM club option for 2025)
  • Charlie Morton, SP: $15MM through 2020 (plus vesting option for 2021)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Rays suffered one major departure before the offseason even began, as senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom left the organization to become the new Red Sox chief baseball officer.  Losing a longtime member of the front office is a blow, and losing Bloom to a deep-pocketed division rival is an even tougher pill to swallow, though the Rays will look to fill the void with internal promotions.

In a way, it’s not unlike how the Rays have historically dealt with losing a big name on the field  — simply rely on the organizational depth and try to keep moving forward.  We saw that philosophy in action in 2019, as the Rays tied for the second-winningest season in franchise history even while missing key players like Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, and Matt Duffy to the injured list for extended periods of time.

With so much talent already in place and (in theory) better health, it’s possible this winter might not feature quite as much roster churn as past Tampa Bay offseasons.  That said, GM Erik Neander and his staff are forever mindful of maximizing their talent core and managing the payroll at the same time.  As per Roster Resource, the Rays currently have just under $73.8MM committed for 2020 salaries, something of a high figure by Tampa’s standards — the Rays’ Opening Day payroll has exceeded the $70MM mark only five times in club history.

That projected payroll will be lowered due to at least a couple of non-tenders, with Zunino and Duffy standing out as the most obvious candidates.  The former lost his starting catching job to Travis d’Arnaud and the latter struggled through yet another injury-plagued year.

A case could also be made that Guillermo Heredia or Jesus Aguilar could be non-tendered or perhaps traded prior to the arbitration deadline.  The Rays could feel they can do better than Heredia in the backup outfield role, and Aguilar could be expendable with both Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe and perhaps another acquisition (more on that shortly) in the first base/DH mix.  Since the Rays are also facing a 40-man roster crunch in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, they could be aggressive in their non-tender decisions as a way of both creating roster space and saving a few dollars at the same time.  The Rays could also explore bringing back any non-tendered players on lower salaries later in the offseason.

Looking around the everyday lineup, the trio of Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Austin Meadows will return in the outfield.  Pham and Meadows were big pluses for the Rays last year, though Kiermaier struggled through his second consecutive subpar year at the plate.  Given that Kiermaier is Tampa’s highest-paid position player but has constantly been plagued with injuries and an inconsistent bat, it wouldn’t be outlandish to imagine that the Rays would explore trade possibilities, if any reasonable offers could be found.  However, the likelier scenario is that Kiermaier returns, as the Rays don’t have any other real center field candidates in the offing.

Around the infield, Willy Adames is locked in at shortstop, though super-prospect Wander Franco could potentially start to make his presence felt by late 2020.  Diaz and Brandon Lowe are respectively penciled in for the bulk of third base and second base duties, with Joey Wendle bouncing between the two positions and Lowe also capable of seeing some time at first base or in the corner outfield.  If Duffy returns, he’d be deployed at third base, opening Diaz up to spend some time as a right-handed counterpoint to Choi and Nate Lowe at first base and DH.  Daniel Robertson and Mike Brosseau would also be hand for bench roles.

It isn’t a bad unit, though in the wake of 2019’s injuries, the Rays might prefer the stability of adding a big bat who can play every day.  The first base/DH spot is the most logical space for such a player, particularly a right-handed bat.  A player with multi-positional versatility would fit the Rays’ model, and Florida native and World Series hero Howie Kendrick is an interesting option on the free agent market.

If the Rays were content with a strict first baseman/DH, however, and were open to spending a bit more as they chase a potential championship, a free agent like Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion could potentially be in play.  It wouldn’t even be out of the question to see either Abreu or Encarnacion get only one-year offers given how the market has treated veteran first basemen in recent years, making such players more enticing to the Rays as a one-year splurge.

To address depth needs, the Rays haven’t ruled out reunions with free agents Avisail Garcia or Eric Sogard, depending on how the market shakes out for either player.  Re-signing Sogard to the infield mix could push Diaz into the role as the right-handed complement to Choi and Lowe. Instead, Garcia could see some time at DH or in right field, allowing for Meadows or other players to cycle through the DH slot on partial rest days.

Travis d’Arnaud is another player the Rays would like to have back, though he might have priced himself out of Tampa’s range after a career-reviving 92-game stint with the team.  d’Arnaud was both productive and healthy in 2019, and now looks to be the second-best option on the free agent catcher market after Yasmani Grandal.

Catcher has been enough of a problem area for the Rays over the years that they might be willing to engage in a minor bidding war if they like what they’ve seen in d’Arnaud, as otherwise, the club will again be looking for answers behind the plate.  d’Arnaud signing elsewhere would make it perhaps almost a necessity that Zunino be retained, as otherwise, Michael Perez would be Tampa’s top in-house choice as the starting catcher, leaving the Rays sifting through the second- or third-tier options on the free agent or trade markets.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen pitched very well last season, and the team will bring just about its entire crop of arms back for another year of constant restocking and reshuffling between the majors and Triple-A Durham.  Emilio Pagan had a big year and is again slated to receive the bulk of closing duties, though the Rays are flexible enough with their bullpen usage that Diego Castillo, Colin Poche, or perhaps a variety of other pitchers could receive save chances depending on the situation.  The Rays are likely to add at least one veteran arm to their mix, though perhaps even just on a minor league contract.

One area that isn’t likely to receive much attention is starting pitching, as the Rays are tentatively hoping that a healthy rotation of Charlie Morton, Snell, Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and Ryan Yarbrough can be one of baseball’s best.  It’s worth noting that even with all the injuries, the Rays already had one of the sport’s top rotations in 2019, as the Rays continued to achieve great results with their use of the opener for (as it turned out) multiple turns in the starting five.  Chirinos and Yarbrough were both “promoted” to regular starter roles after being primarily used as bulk pitchers behind an opener, so the Rays could continue using them as normal starters, or perhaps again turn to an opener given how successful the strategy has been.

Top prospect and two-way player Brendan McKay made his MLB debut in 2019 and is an intriguing wild card for both the rotation or even the DH mix.  Midseason pickup Trevor Richards, Austin Pruitt, or former top prospects Anthony Banda and Jose De Leon could also factor in as further depth options, or bulk pitchers.

The Rays’ playoff success isn’t likely to lead to any uncharacteristic spending, as the club’s last big splurge in the 2013-14 offseason (when Andrew Friedman still ran the baseball operations department) backfired, and indirectly contributed to four straight losing seasons from 2014-17.  That said, after signing Morton to a $30MM deal last winter, one can’t deny the possibility that Neander could have another bold move or two in store in order to put the Rays over the top in the AL East.

Reds Exercise Club Option On Freddy Galvis

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Nov. 1: The Reds have formally announced that Galvis’ option has indeed been picked up.

Oct. 31: The Reds will exercise their $5.5MM club option on Freddy Galvis for the 2020 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The Reds had a $4.5MM decision to make on the veteran shortstop, as Galvis’ contract contained a $1MM buyout.

Galvis hit .260/.296/.438 with a career-best 23 homers over 589 plate appearances last season, coming over to Cincinnati in a midseason trade from the Blue Jays.  He was one of many players to benefit from inflated power numbers in the homer-happy 2019 season, as his batting average, OBP, and even his slugging percentage weren’t too far removed from career norms.  Playing mostly at shortstop in Toronto and then mostly as a second baseman with the Reds, Galvis posted decent defensive statistics at both positions, making him a flexible bench piece for next season as Cincinnati decides on its next step in the middle infield.

Jose Peraza and Derek Dietrich are also on hand as potential infield candidates, and Nick Senzel could also potentially factor back into the second base mix if the Reds opt to acquire an everyday center fielder rather than continue to deploying Senzel on the grass.  Galvis’ $5.5MM is more than either Peraza ($3.6MM) or Dietrich ($3.1MM) are projected to earn in arbitration, making one or both players expendable as non-tender candidates.  With the Reds firmly intent on a postseason berth next year, they could be aggressive in looking for an everyday shortstop AND center fielder, thus making Senzel the new second baseman and keeping Galvis in a utility infield role.

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