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White Sox “Unlikely” To Move Luis Robert Jr. By Trade Deadline

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While the White Sox have been one of the primary sellers in the deadline market, one of their top trade candidates doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, as reporter Francys Romero (X link) hears from sources that Luis Robert Jr. is “unlikely” to be on the move at this point.  MLB.com’s Scott Merkin concurs, and so while an unexpectedly big trade offer might change things before tomorrow’s 5pm CT deadline, odds are Robert will still be in a White Sox uniform on July 31.

Robert missed about two months this season due to a hip flexor strain, and is hitting .201/.242/.440 with 12 homers and 13 steals over 220 plate appearances entering today’s action.  With just a 99 wRC+ to show for his production, Robert isn’t exactly putting on a show for potential suitors, so it isn’t surprising that the White Sox might want to hold off until the offseason to reignite any trade talks.  If Robert returns to his 2023 form over the season’s final two months, it will do a lot to re-establish his trade value and to help Chicago’s chances at finding a suitable return.

Signed to a six-year, $50MM contract before his MLB career even began, Robert is still something of an unproven quantity as he approaches his 27th birthday, as injuries have limited his full potential.  Playing in 145 games last season, Robert hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and finished 12th in AL MVP voting, which provided evidence that Robert can be an elite player when healthy.  A more serious hip flexor issue in 2021 and then a variety of injuries in 2022 limited him to 166 games over those two seasons, though he still managed a .307/.344/.486 slash line and 25 home runs in 697 PA, basically delivering the equivalent of one impressive full season.

Beyond Robert’s production on the field, his contractual control adds to his value as a trade chip.  He is owed $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox then hold $20MM club options on his services for both 2026 and 2027.  This is quite a reasonable price for a player with a superstar ceiling, and thus the Sox could add for a huge trade package to further aid their rebuilding efforts.

Given the potential length of Robert’s deal, the White Sox could even still view him as a contributor to their next winning team, if they feel they’re starting to make headway on a revived roster.  Of course, that would require a lot of progress in pretty short order from a 27-81 team that is threatening to deliver one of baseball’s worst-ever seasons, so it might seem like a long shot if the Sox are able to get on track before Robert’s time with the club is over.

Dodgers Acquire Amed Rosario

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The Dodgers and Rays continue to be two of the deadline’s more active teams, as Los Angeles reacquired Amed Rosario from Tampa Bay.  Minor league righty Michael Flynn heads to the Rays in return in a one-for-one swap.  To create roster space for Rosario, the Dodgers have designated Ryan Yarbrough for assignment

Rosario has now been a deadline pickup for the Dodgers in consecutive years, after L.A. acquired him from the Guardians in exchange for Noah Syndergaard last July.  Rosario hit .256/.301/.408 over 133 plate appearances for the Dodgers following the trade, primarily playing second base with a few appearances at his old shortstop position, after primarily playing short in his previous six seasons with the Guardians and Mets.

After signing a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Rays last winter, Rosario moved into more of a full utility role, spending most of his time at second base and left field while still getting substantial playing time at shortstop and third base.  The initial expectation was that the right-handed hitting Rosario would mostly face left-handed pitching, but between injuries and his respectable splits, Rosario ended up facing more right-handers than southpaws while hitting an overall .307/.331/.417 across 275 PA for Tampa Bay.  Rosario has a 115 wRC+, which would be a career high if he can keep it going over the rest of the season.

Rosario could just slot back right back into regular second-base duty in a platoon with Gavin Lux, but a larger role is probably in store for Rosario while the Dodgers try to manage several injuries.  With Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, and the newly-acquired Tommy Edman all on the mend, Rosario figures to get a decent dose of playing time all over the infield.

With only around $500K still owed to Rosario in salary for the rest of the season, the trade is a cost-effective move for the Dodgers that might pay big dividends, considering Rosario’s quality numbers and his familiarity with playing in Los Angeles.  The deal also continues Andrew Friedman’s long history of trading with his former team, as the L.A. president of baseball operations has swung several deals since leaving the Rays for the Dodgers back in 2014.

Flynn is just over a week away from his 28th birthday, and he’ll get to celebrate by once more changing organizations during his pro career.  A sixth-round pick for the Pirates in 2018, Flynn also spent time in the Mariners’ farm system before joining the Dodgers this season, and he has a 4.95 ERA over 36 1/3 relief innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

As with most Pacific Coast League numbers, a look behind the ERA is necessary in the hitter-friendly league, and Flynn has a 32.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.  His strikeout numbers have increased exponentially over his last two seasons, and given the Rays’ penchant for uncovering hidden gems, it stands to reason that Tampa has seen something in Flynn that might put him in line for his Major League debut.

Since the Dodgers’ injury woes also extend to their pitching staff, Yarbrough’s DFA counts as a bit of a surprise, as he has been a fairly effective arm for L.A. since being picked up from the Royals at last year’s trade deadline.  This season Yarbrough has a 3.74 ERA in 67 1/3 innings while working as a long reliever and occasional bulk pitcher, albeit with such unimpressive metrics as an 8.9% walk rate and a 13.9% strikeout rate.  That latter number is one of the lowest K-rates in the sport, though he has also been one of the league’s best at limiting hard contact, albeit with some significant help from a .214 BABIP.

Yarbrough’s 4.96 SIERA apparently carried more weight for the Dodgers than his ERA of over a run lower, so Los Angeles has now sent the veteran to the DFA wire.  The left-hander’s ability to eat innings out of the pen could make him a candidate for a waiver claim, particularly since several teams might have holes to fill in their relief corps if other relievers are traded by the deadline.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers were acquiring Rosario. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Flynn was going back to Tampa. Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported the Yarbrough DFA.

Guardians Acquire Lane Thomas

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The Guardians have landed outfielder Lane Thomas in a trade with the Nationals, both teams announced. A trio of prospects — left-hander Alex Clemmey and infielders Jose Tena and Rafael Ramirez — are going back to Washington.

It was almost exactly three years ago that Thomas was part of another prominent deadline trade, coming to Washington from the Cardinals in exchange for Jon Lester.  The move to the Nats and more consistent playing time unlocked something in Thomas, who performed brilliantly over the remainder of the 2021 season and then settled into a regular role in the Nationals’ outfield over the last three years.  This season, Thomas has hit .253/.331/.407 with eight homers and 28 steals (out of 40 attempts) over 341 plate appearances, despite missing about a month of action with a sprained MCL.

Thomas’ emergence in Washington was soon followed by more trade speculation, as it wasn’t clear whether or not the Nationals would view this newfound breakout player as a building block, or as a trade asset to aid in their rebuild.  Today’s move answers that question, as the Nats have dealt Thomas (who turns 29 next month) in the second of his three arbitration-eligible seasons.  Thomas is earning $5.45MM this season and will be in for a raise next year before hitting the free agency market in the 2025-26 offseason.

This extra year of control added to Thomas’ trade value, and ironically, the Guards themselves have traditionally looked to deal such increasingly-pricey players as they approach the end of their team control.  With Cleveland in first place in the AL Central, the Guardians have instead looked to bolster their roster in major fashion, as Thomas can step right in as the team’s new regular right fielder.  The left-handed hitting Will Brennan should still get a decent chunk of at-bats since Thomas has been much better against southpaws than against right-handed pitchers this season, but Thomas brings a needed right-handed bat to a Cleveland lineup perhaps a bit overloaded with lefty-swingers and switch-hitters.

The Guardians are opting for extra hitting over defense here, as Thomas’ public defensive metrics (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -8.1 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average) have been very lacking.  Cleveland has traditionally prioritized glovework in the outfield, yet while the lineup’s production has been better in 2024 than in recent seasons, Guards hitters have provided roughly average numbers league-wide.  It seems quite possible the Guardians might still address their bigger need for rotation help before tomorrow’s deadline, but the Thomas trade is a key first step towards upgrading the roster for the stretch run.

From Washington’s perspective, the three-player package is a nice return for a season and two months’ worth of Thomas’ services.  The Nationals have added one MLB-ready player in Tena who has already gotten some time in the Show, and two longer-term assets, including a noteworthy pitching prospect in Clemmey.

Cleveland’s second-round pick in the 2023 draft, Clemmey is just 11 days removed from his 19th birthday, and he has a 4.67 ERA over 69 1/3 innings at A-level Lynchburg this season.  Clemmey has struck out batters at an impressive 32.6% rate, but his 15.8% walk rate is evidence of some control issues early in his pro career.

Baseball America ranked Clemmey seventh among Guardians prospects and MLB Pipeline had him eighth on their list, with both outlets wowed by his high-90s fastball.  The fastball earned a 70 grade from both scouting reports and his curveball received a 60, giving him some impressive upside for rotation work if he can develop at least one more quality offering.  While projections might be a bit difficult for such a young pitcher, Clemmey already looks like he could be a quality reliever, though obviously the Nationals will fully explore his potential as a starter.

Ramirez was ranked 20th in BA’s list of Guardians prospects and 22nd by MLB Pipeline.  He is the son of former Braves/Astros infielder Rafael Ramirez Sr., and while the elder Ramirez spent most of his 13 Major League seasons at shortstop, the 19-year-old Ramirez might eventually end up as a third baseman or second baseman, as per the scouting reports.  Ramirez is in his third year of pro ball and hasn’t hit much in A-ball this season after posting much bigger numbers in rookie ball in 2023.

Tena made his big league debut in the form of 18 games and 34 PA for Cleveland last season, and he has appeared in three games for the Guards in 2024.  An international signing in 2017, Tena has spent his whole career in Cleveland’s farm system, and he has an eye-popping .308/.365/.522 slash line and 22 homers in 494 career PA at the Triple-A level.

Despite these big numbers, the 23-year-old Tena always seemed to be a bit of an odd man out amidst the Guards’ infield picture, especially with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez locking down two positions.  Tena’s big strikeout numbers probably didn’t play well within a Cleveland organization that prizes contact hitting, but he’ll now get another opportunity in the District.  The Nationals have an infield cornerstone of their own in CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. has done well to re-establish himself as a regular second baseman, though Tena could potentially look to make an impact at third base or in a utility role.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) was the first to report that Cleveland acquired Thomas, and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X) reported that Clemmey was part of the trade package.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan specified that the Nationals would be receiving three players in return for Thomas, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report on the inclusion of Tena and Ramirez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger From 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs have activated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list, according to multiple reporters.  Bellinger has been on the IL since July 11 after he was hit by a Cionel Perez pitch, resulting in a fracture in his left middle finger.  Fortunately for Bellinger and the Cubs, the injury hasn’t proven to be too serious, and Bellinger has been taking part in baseball activities.

The activation comes as a bit of a surprise due to the immediacy, as manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) earlier today that Bellinger would return in a few days’ time.  However, Bellinger apparently looked so good in his hitting progression that the club feels comfortable in activating him in time for today’s game with the Reds.  Counsell recently suggested that Bellinger could return as a DH at first, as he was feeling comfortable hitting but was still having some issues throwing (Bellinger is left-handed).

Bellinger has hit .269/.331/.410 with nine home runs over 344 plate appearances this season, and he missed a couple of weeks due to a rib fracture earlier this year in addition to his just-completed IL stint.  While Bellinger’s 108 wRC+ is above average, it is well below the 134 wRC+ he posted in 2023, and not what the Cubs were expecting when he was re-signed to a three-year, $80MM free agent deal last winter.

Since Bellinger can opt out of that contract after the season, he’ll have two more months to post some bigger numbers and build a better platform for another foray into the free agent market.  If Bellinger decides to just stay with Chicago, he can also opt out following the 2025 campaign, giving him some extra flexibility down the road as he considers his long-term future.  Between this contractual uncertainty, his recent injury absence, and his just-okay numbers, Bellinger is probably unlikely to be dealt by a Chicago team that has been doing more adding than subtracting in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Brewers To Place Trevor Megill On 15-Day Injured List

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The Brewers will be placing right-hander Trevor Megill on the 15-day injured list due to a back problem, according to multiple members of the team’s beat (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Acquired in a trade with the Twins in April 2023, Megill is the latest in a string of relievers to hit a new level of performance after coming to Milwaukee.  Megill had a 6.03 ERA over his first 68 2/3 career big league innings with the Cubs and Twins in 2021-22, but with some intriguing secondary metrics that hinted at a higher ceiling, and he delivered on that potential with a 3.63 ERA over 34 2/3 frames with Milwaukee last season.

Megill has been even better in 2024, with a 2.41 ERA and excellent walk (5.9%) and strikeout (29.4%) rates over 33 2/3 innings in the Crew’s bullpen.  While he has allowed a lot of hard contact and has become rather an extreme fly ball pitcher this season, Megill’s 98.8mph fastball has been one of baseball’s more dominant offerings, pairing nicely with his curve to fool batters.

This performance has come in several high-leverage circumstances, as Megill has acted as Milwaukee’s closer (saving 20 of 23 chances) while Devin Williams has missed almost the entire season due to stress fractures in his back.  Williams only made his season debut yesterday, so the Brewers are facing some unfortunate irony in losing Megill to a back problem just as Williams returns.  Bryan Hudson was also just placed on the 15-day IL due to an oblique strain, in another big hit to the relief corps.  Nick Mears was acquired in a trade with the Rockies on Saturday, but with Hudson and now Megill both out, the Brewers could certainly look to further bolster the bullpen prior to tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Cubs Acquire Isaac Paredes For Christopher Morel, Two Prospects

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The Cubs and Rays have lined up on an eye-opening trade in advance of the deadline, as Isaac Paredes is on his way to Chicago.  Christopher Morel and right-handers Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson, comprise the three-player package heading to Tampa Bay in the other end of the deal.

Paredes has been a popular figure in trade rumors in recent days, with such teams as the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Mariners all linked to the All-Star.  Instead, a more surprising suitor has won the bidding, as Paredes will instead go to a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central with a 50-56 record.

Still, it isn’t entirely surprising that the Cubs have made such a bold move, as the team is clearly aiming to contend in 2025 after stumbling to their disappointing result this year.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the Cubs’ deadline moves would be made with an eye towards competing next season as opposed to making a late run now, though Paredes is certainly a boost to Chicago’s lineup right now.

There are also some long-term ties at play, since Paredes began his pro career as an international signing for the Cubs back in 2015.  He was moved along with Jeimer Candelario to the Tigers at the 2017 deadline in the trade that brought Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago, and Paredes made his MLB debut in a Detroit uniform in 2020.

Acquired in a trade with the Tigers early in the 2022 season, Paredes emerged as a very productive regular over his three years in Tampa.  He has a 129 wRC+ over his 1377 plate appearances in a Rays uniform, highlighted by a 31-homer season in 2023 and an All-Star appearance this year.  Despite a recent slump, Paredes is still hitting .247/.355/.438 with 16 home runs this season, across 425 PA while getting regular work at both corner infield spots.

Most of that work came at third base, and Paredes figures to take right over from Morel at the hot corner at Wrigley Field.  Paredes’ glovework as a third baseman has been more solid than outstanding, yet even average defense is a big upgrade from Morel, whose struggles in the field have been well documented.  The right-handed hitting Paredes could also spell Michael Busch (a lefty-swinger) at first base when a tough southpaw is on the mound, and Paredes also has a good deal of experience at second base, even though the Rays have used him only in the corner infield spots in 2024.  On paper, however, the Cubs already have their 2025 starting infield set, with Paredes at third base, Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second base, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop.

Infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos are two of Chicago’s top prospects, so their arrival in a year or two could further shake up the Cubs’ infield picture and perhaps where Paredes ultimately ends up around the diamond.  In perhaps the key element of today’s trade, the Cubs have plenty of time to figure this all out, as Paredes is under arbitration control through the 2027 season.  Paredes is earning a $3.4MM salary this year, in the first of four arb-eligible seasons via his Super Two status.

Even though Paredes was only just starting his trips through the arb process, that escalating price tag surely factored into the Rays’ decision to part ways with a controllable, productive player who is still just 25 years old.  With payroll always a concern in Tampa, the Rays have never shied away from selling high on a player before his price tag becomes too onerous for the organization, as part of the Rays’ constant churn of replacing pricier players for cheaper options that can provide similar or better production.

This strategy has been on full display since the start of July, as Tampa Bay has now moved Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Phil Maton in the last four weeks.  This blitz of trades figures to continue right up until the July 30th deadline, and such names as Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks have also been mentioned as potential trade candidates.  All of these moves have come despite the fact that the Rays are still playing solid baseball, as their 54-52 record has them only 3.5 games out of the final AL wild card berth.

Star prospect Junior Caminero has been expected to receive a longer look in the big leagues at this point this season, and very well could have been called up already if his minor league season hadn’t been interrupted by injuries.  With Paredes traded, Caminero now has a clear path to regular playing time at third base, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Caminero in Tampa Bay later this week once the dust has fully settled from the team’s deadline moves.

Morel is only in his third Major League season, but he has thus far played at every position except first base and catcher as the Cubs have tried to find a suitable way to get Morel’s bat into the lineup.  Second base could be a more viable option for Morel now that he is no longer blocked by Hoerner, or the Rays could cycle him into their first base/DH mix as well.

Perhaps the first order of business is getting Morel’s bat on track, as he has hit only .199/.302/.374 with 18 homers in 420 PA this season.  Between this 93 wRC+ and his tough defensive number, Morel has been a sub-replacement level player in 2024, with a -0.1 fWAR.  It is an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old, who hit a much more respectable .241/.311/.471 with 42 homers in his first 854 MLB plate appearances.

There is probably always going to be a lot of swing-and-miss in Morel’s game, but even being a “three true outcomes” type of player has plenty of utility if Morel can keep drawing walks and putting the ball over the fence.  The Rays are also surely thinking that a change of scenery could benefit Morel, or perhaps that the team’s own staff can help him unlock some greater potential (as has been done with Paredes and a number of other hitters who can come through Tampa’s organization).

Bigge was a 12th-round pick out of Harvard in the 2019 draft, and he made his MLB debut just this month, amassing a 2.70 ERA in his first 3 1/3 innings (over four appearances) in the Show.  Bigge has worked only as a reliever in his pro career, and delivered a 4.25 ERA across 159 innings in the minors, with a big 30.42% strikeout rate but also a 15.06% walk rate.

The control is the biggest obstacle preventing Bigge from fully realizing his potential, as MLB Pipeline rates his cutter, slider, and his upper-90s fastball all as plus pitches, and his curveball also has promise.  However, Pipeline puts Bigge only 29th in their ranking of Chicago’s prospects, with those control problems in mind.  Bigge has so much tantalizing stuff that it is easy to see why the Rays had interest, and given Tampa Bay’s history of pitching development, nobody would be surprised if Bigge becomes a dangerous bullpen weapon with his new team.

Johnson was a 15th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2023 draft, and the Ball State product has a 3.54 ERA in 61 total innings in 2024 (33 2/3 frames in A ball, and 27 1/3 innings at high-A).  Starting 10 of his 18 games, Johnson has also shown some nice ability to miss bats, with a 32.5% strikeout rate in his brief pro career.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) was the first to report that Paredes was heading to Chicago.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Rays were receiving Morel as part of a three-player package, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported Bigge and Johnson as the other two players.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cardinals Notes: Edman, Brebbia, Matz, Kloffenstein

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While the Cardinals are looking to buy at the deadline as they chase an NL wild card slot, the team could also pursue some strategic selling, as the Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that the Dodgers have interest in Tommy Edman’s services.  The versatile Edman could provide depth or even a starting role at multiple positions for an injury-riddled Dodgers team, and it be can argued that St. Louis already has enough position-player depth to make Edman expendable.

Of course, the chief obstacle to a deal is Edman’s own health status, as he has still yet to play in a big league game this season.  Edman underwent wrist surgery last fall and the rehab process has taken considerably longer than expected — his recovery has been delayed by a couple of shutdowns due to recurring wrist soreness, as well as a sprained ankle.  He has played in seven games during his rehab assignment with Double-A Springfield, but only as a DH, rather than any action in the field.

The Cards would certainly be selling low on a player who generated 5.4 fWAR as recently as 2022, between Edman’s strong glovework all over the diamond and an above-average (106 wRC+) performance at the plate.  However, 2022 represented the high-water mark of Edman’s offensive production over a full season, as he had an 89 wRC+ in 2021 and a 92 wRC+ in 528 PA last season.

The two-year, $16.5MM extension Edman signed last January also puts a significant price tag on his services, with about $2.4MM still owed to him this season and then $9.5MM owed in 2025.  The Cardinals would almost certainly have to eat a big chunk of that money to accommodate a trade, unless they perhaps swapped Edman to the Dodgers or another team for another unfavorable contract.

Such a creative move might in some way address the Cardinals’ other deadline needs, which Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat outlines as a right-handed hitting outfielder, starting pitching, and some bullpen depth.  For this latter goal, Jones reports that the Cards have interest in White Sox reliever John Brebbia.

It would be a reunion between the Cardinals and the veteran reliever, as Brebbia broke into the big leagues with St. Louis in 2017 and quickly established himself as a workhorse.  Brebbia posted a 3.14 ERA over 175 relief innings over the 2017-19 season, but a Tommy John surgery kept him sidelined for the entire 2020 season, and the Cards non-tendered him following that lost year.  He re-established himself pitching for the Giants from 2021-23, and signed a one-year free agent deal with the White Sox this past winter that pays him $4MM in salary, with a $1.5MM buyout of a $6MM mutual option for 2025.

Brebbia’s work with the Sox has been a lot better than his 5.22 ERA might indicate, as a .352 BABIP has inflated the righty’s bottom-line numbers.  In terms of secondary metrics, Brebbia has a strong 29.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate, as well as above-average hard-contact numbers.  With the White Sox in clear sell mode, Brebbia is a likely candidate to be on the move before the deadline, and St. Louis could among several terms intrigued by Brebbia’s Statcast line rather than his misleading ERA.

The Cardinals figure to land pitching even some internal arms are on the mend, as Steven Matz is tentatively slated to begin a minor league rehab assignment later this week (as per the St. Louis Post-Dispatch).  Matz’s injury-plagued tenure with the Cards has now seen him miss almost three months due to back problems, with the southpaw posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 innings in April before being sidelined.  Since Matz’s rehab work has already been shut down twice by recurring back pain, this next rehab assignment doesn’t represent a clear sign that the veteran is fully on the road to recovery, but he did log two simulated innings in a throwing session on Saturday.

In more concerning injury news, Adam Kloffenstein has discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Oliver Marmol told Jones and other reporters.  Kloffenstein is currently on the minor league injured list as testing is being done to determine the nature and extent of the problem.  Acquired in the Jordan Hicks trade with the Blue Jays last summer, Kloffenstein has a 4.74 ERA in 89 1/3 innings and 17 Triple-A starts this season, and he made his Major League debut in cup-of-coffee form with one inning in the Cards’ 6-5 win over the Giants on June 20.

Latest On Tigers’ Trade Candidates

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“The Tigers are listening to everything” in regards to trade possibilities, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes, as the team is at least open to moving both pending free agents and players under longer-term control.  It remains unclear exactly how aggressive the Tigers might be in moving anyone who isn’t controlled beyond 2025, as while it costs the team nothing to test the market for offers, Detroit does broadly expect to finally get back to contention next season.

With a 52-54 record, the Tigers are still technically in contention this season, as they sit only 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card berth.  A stirring 14-8 record in July has kept Detroit alive in the playoff picture, yet with the postseason still something of a longshot, this recent surge hasn’t been enough to detract from the Tigers’ plan to move some veterans.

Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha have been mentioned in trade rumors already, but Petzold notes that the Tigers are “shopping” catcher Carson Kelly.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in a piece earlier this month, Kelly has rebounded after a couple of down years to assume close to an even split of Detroit’s catching duties alongside Jake Rogers. Kelly has is hitting .242/.327/.393 with seven home runs over 202 plate appearances, translating to an above-average 106 wRC+.

Despite the importance of the catching position, it is relatively rare to see prominent backstops dealt at the deadline, due in part to all of the added prep work that a catcher must handle behind the scenes.  Since so much of the job is based around handling pitchers and calling games, it can quite difficult for a catcher to join a new team and immediately be tasked with learning the tendencies for an entire new set of hurlers.

This alone complicates Detroit’s efforts to move Kelly, not to mention the fact that a lot of other contenders are relatively set at the catching position.  That said, you never know what teams might emerge with needs — the Red Sox weren’t seemingly in search of catching on paper, yet Boston acquired Danny Jansen from the Blue Jays yesterday.  Kelly is also pretty inexpensive, as has about $1.22MM remaining on his $3.5MM salary for the 2024 season.

In terms of players with extra control, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller can each be retained via club options for the 2025 season.  (Chafin’s option is worth $6.5MM with a $500K buyout, while Miller’s option is for $4.25MM with a $250K buyout.)  According to Petzold, the Tigers are leaning towards picking up both options for now, though their plans could change if another team makes a good enough offer for either pitcher by Tuesday’s deadline.

Chafin has more value as a left-handed reliever, plus his numbers are better than Miller’s this season.  Chafin has a 3.25 ERA with an outstanding 29.9% strikeout rate over 36 innings, and while he is still prone to issuing free passes, the veteran’s 9.6% walk rate is still markedly improved over his 12.5% figure from 2023.  Miller is something of the opposite, as he has a strong 5.4% walk rate but his other numbers are a lot rougher — a 4.66 ERA in 36 2/3 frames out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

Sticking with the relief corps, Petzold reports that the Tigers have gotten trade interest in both Jason Foley and Will Vest, but the club is unlikely to move either right-hander.  Foley and Vest are both controlled through 2027 and won’t even reach their first rounds of salary arbitration until this coming offseason, so barring a very compelling offer, Detroit has no reason to consider moving relievers who aim to be part of the bullpen plans for years to come.

Foley in particular has performed well as Detroit’s closer this season, saving 15 of 18 chances and posting a 3.22 ERA in 36 1/3 innings.  If there is a reason for the Tigers to think about selling high, it could be that Foley doesn’t fit the traditional model for a lights-out stopper.  Foley is a grounder specialist with surprisingly low strikeout totals for a pitcher with a 96.9mph fastball, though his slider has been much more effective than his heater this season.

Vest has quietly posted strong numbers for two seasons in a row now, following up his 2.98 ERA in 48 1/3 innings in 2023 with a 3.15 ERA in 45 2/3 frames this year.  Somewhat akin to Foley, Vest also doesn’t miss many bats, but he is very good at limiting hard contact.  Only six percent of Vest’s fly balls have left the yard over the last two seasons, and his 2.9% barrel rate is in the 97th percentile of all pitchers in 2024.

Kodai Senga Likely To Miss Rest Of Regular Season Due To “High Grade” Calf Strain

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TODAY: Senga has been moved to the 60-day injured list to open up a 40-man roster spot for Jesse Winker, who was officially acquired from the Nationals.  Sept. 25 is now the earliest that Senga is eligible to return to action, but by all accounts his 2024 season seems to be over.

SATURDAY, 12:46PM: Senga has a “high grade” calf strain and isn’t likely to pitch again during the regular season, manager Carlos Mendoza told ESPN’s Jorge Castillo (X link) and other reporters.  There is a rough recovery timeline of 8-10 weeks, so it is possible Senga might be available should the Mets make a postseason run.

11:24AM: Kodai Senga’s first start of the 2024 season was cut short by injury, and the Mets announced today that the right-hander has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left calf strain.  Righty Eric Orze was also optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, and the two roster spots will be filled by Tylor Megill (called up from Triple-A) and new arrival Ryne Stanek (acquired yesterday in a trade with the Mariners).

After suffering a capsule strain in his shoulder during Spring Training, Senga’s recovery was delayed by some mechanical adjustments and then a triceps injury, pushing his season debut back to last night’s game against the Braves.  Despite the long layoff, Senga was looking sharp, and finished the start with two earned runs on two hits and a walk over 5 1/3 innings of work.  Unfortunately, that final out of Senga’s start saw the righty fall to the ground while leaving the mound during an Austin Riley pop-up, and Senga very gingerly walked off the field after consulting with team trainers.

Senga was scheduled to undergo an MRI today, and the results of that scan have now led to this immediate placement on the 15-day IL.  More details on the severity of the strain will likely be revealed later today, though from the admittedly non-scientific method of looking at the obvious pain on Senga’s face in the aftermath of the injury, one would suspect he’ll be missing longer than just 15 days.  Depending on the nature of the strain, it isn’t out of the question that Senga’s season could be in jeopardy.

Even if Senga is able to pitch again in 2024, the calf strain is another brutal setback in what has been a frustrating sophomore season for the righty in Major League Baseball.  The longtime NPB star came to the majors with much fanfare when he signed a five-year, $75MM free agent deal with New York during the 2022-23 offseason, and immediately delivered on the hype by posting a 2.98 ERA over 166 1/3 innings in 2023.  Amidst an otherwise hugely disappointing season for the Mets, Senga’s quick impact at least provided some hope that the franchise might be able to turn things around in relatively short order.

Ironically, the Mets have indeed gotten on track this year, except with virtually no contributions from Senga apart from Friday’s start.  The rotation has been something of a weak link in general due to injuries, though the group of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana have been solid if unspectacular.  Senga’s return was supposed to add an ace alongside that trio, but New York has now been bit again by the injury bug, between Senga’s calf strain and Christian Scott’s UCL strain.

Megill or Jose Butto could get another look in the rotation with Senga out, as Adrian Houser is probably no longer an option after being designated for assignment earlier this week.  With the Mets increasingly looking like legitimate contenders, the trade deadline presents an obvious route for the Amazins to bring a new starter into the fold, though naturally such deals are difficult to find.  Any new pitchers will add to New York’s already immense luxury tax bill, and president of baseball operations David Stearns might not be too keen on trading significant talent from the farm system.

Yankees, Padres Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees and Padres are two of the teams expressing interest in left-hander Blake Snell, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (links to X).  Reports surfaced earlier this week that Snell was drawing interest from pitching-needy contenders, and New York and San Diego are the first clubs specifically known to gotten in touch with the Giants over Snell’s availability.

It remains to be seen if the Giants will actually move Snell, or be deadline sellers in any real capacity given that the team is still just 4.5 games out of a wild card berth.  Snell is himself a major factor in San Francisco’s renewed hopes of contention, as the southpaw has been almost untouchable since returning from the injured list.  Over his last four starts, Snell has a 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate, highlighted by a 15-strikeout gem of an outing against the Rockies yesterday.

This is the type of rotation-carrying production was what the Giants were hoping to receive when they signed the reigning Cy Young Award winner to a two-year, $62MM deal back in March.  However, Snell’s lengthy stint in free agency and subsequent lack of proper Spring Training work wreaked havoc on his performance, resulting in two IL stints (with an adductor strain and a groin strain) and a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts in a Giants uniform.

This recent injury history will obviously weigh on the minds of any team that does approach the Giants about a Snell trade, not to mention the fact that Snell can opt out of the second year (and $30MM salary) of his contract.  The presence of this opt-out clause means that Snell isn’t exactly a rental player, thus creating extra financial risk for an acquiring team, and some difficulty in working out an acceptable trade package with San Francisco.  Snell’s recent form increases the chances that he might exercise his player option, but if any more injury issues arise, Snell could pass on his opt-out and remain on the books for that hefty $30MM payday next year.

Snell is naturally a known quantity to the Padres after pitching with San Diego from 2021-23, but the financial aspect of a Snell trade is particularly noteworthy for a Padres team that is trying to remain under the luxury tax threshold this season, in order to reset its penalty status after two years of overages.  San Diego’s acquisition of Jason Adam from the Rays earlier today resulted in a pretty minor financial hit, though the Padres had to give up a hefty prospect package to obtain the reliever.  Payroll aside, there is also the broader fact that it seems rather unlikely that the Giants would trade Snell to a division rival.

The Bronx Bombers have long had Snell on their radar, and the six-year, $150MM offer Snell reportedly received from the Yankees in January is the highest contract known to be on the table for the left-hander during his elongated free agent market.  As Heyman notes, the luxury tax is also a factor given that New York has already topped the upper tier ($297MM) of tax penalties.  RosterResource estimates that the Yankees’ Competitive Balance Tax number is just shy of $312.9MM, and thus they would face a 110% tax on any further salaries added to their ledger.

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