It’s no secret that the Rays operate differently from virtually every other team in baseball. They trade from and reshape their roster aggressively at virtually every opportunity in order to keep the team from ever needing to rebuild, and it’s a system that’s worked for quite some time at this point. From Willy Adames to Tyler Glasnow to Randy Arozarena, most players don’t stay in Tampa for long and get traded before they’d actually have a chance to sniff free agency and walk away for nothing.
The conventional wisdom for quite some time has been that as a Rays star nears free agency, a trade is inevitable. That would seemingly spell the end of Brandon Lowe’s time with the team. He can be retained via a $11.5MM club option in 2026 but is set to reach free agency after that. Tampa is coming off an 85-loss season in 2025, a worrying sign for a team that hasn’t lost more games than that since 2007. For most clubs, that would further reinforce the need to trade Lowe and focus on the future. With that being said, the Rays aren’t most clubs. Could they continue to zag where other teams would zig and view a tough 2025 season as all the more reason to keep Lowe in the fold?
The 31-year-old is coming off his second All-Star appearance but had a fairly typical season by his standards. In 134 games this year, Lowe slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 homers and 19 doubles. That performance was good for a wRC+ of 114, and he’s typically been around 15 to 25% better than league average by that measure throughout his career. Pretty much any team that doesn’t employ Ketel Marte would happily take that sort of offensive production from the keystone, but Lowe’s offense is especially important for Tampa given that he was one of just four above-average hitters on the roster in 2025 alongside Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, and Yandy Diaz.
That left the Rays as a below average offensive club despite banner seasons from both Aranda and Caminero, with a collective wRC+ of 98 as a team. They also ranked in the bottom half of the league in home runs this year, with the aforementioned four players accounting for 115 of the club’s 182 bombs. Tampa’s offense is one in need of addition rather than subtraction, and it’s hard to imagine the Rays getting more production out of the second base position by trading Lowe away.
Perhaps if the Rays had an elite option waiting in the wings to take over, as they did when they traded Paredes to clear the deck for Caminero, trading Lowe would be an easy call. But it’s more difficult to stick to the typical Tampa playbook when internal options to replace him are somewhat lackluster. Christopher Morel hasn’t panned out since being acquired in the Isaac Paredes trade, and while Carson Williams is a top prospect with a chance to impact the club in 2026, the Rays would be better served allowing him to push Taylor Walls back into a bench role than moving Lowe to make room for him at the keystone. Richie Palacios could be an interesting solution, but moving him to second would only further weaken an outfield that already needs reinforcements.
While the arguments for keeping Lowe in the fold are clear, there is reason to at least consider trading him despite those concerns. Lowe is arguably on the downswing at the moment. His .307 on-base percentage this year was the worst of his career. After walking at a reliable 10%+ clip throughout the majority of his career, he’s now seen his walk rate drop precipitously in back-to-back seasons. He went from 11.5% in 2023 to 7.8% and 6.9% in the two most recent campaigns.
This year was his worst defensive season at second base, and an infield with Williams at second base and Walls at shortstop would be a massive improvement defensively. While that combination wouldn’t hit as well as Lowe and Williams, an outfield that generated a paltry 85 wRC+ this year would be relatively easy to improve and make up for the loss of Lowe’s bat.
Looking at the team’s situation more broadly, Aranda and Caminero are under team control through 2029 and 2030 respectively while Williams figures to be controlled through 2031. That’s an exciting core of young talent, but they’ll need reinforcements as players like Lowe, Pete Fairbanks, Diaz, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen depart the organization over the next two seasons. Letting Lowe walk for nothing would be a big risk for the team’s long-term competitive future, especially if the team’s new ownership group isn’t interested in escalating a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll.
On the other hand, Lowe’s apparent decline might make potential suitors hesitant to give up significant value for him. Installing Lowe in an outfield corner, where he already has 50 career appearances, would be an alternative way to both mitigate the concerns about his defensive ability on the infield while also getting more offensive production from the outfield next year. However, Lowe hasn’t played on the grass since 2022.
The Rays also don’t find themselves hurting for payroll flexibility this offseason as much as they do most years after offloading Ha-Seong Kim, Danny Jansen, and Zack Littell from their books during the season. They could even still recoup value for Lowe at the deadline if they find themselves in position to sell for the third year in a row.
How do MLBTR readers think the Rays will handle Lowe this offseason? Will he still be with the team come Opening Day, or will they trade him before then? Have your say in the poll below:
