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The Opener: Pepiot, Thomas, Red Sox, MLBTR Chat

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With more than 20% of the 2024 season in the books, here are four things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Pepiot to the IL?

Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot was struck in the leg by a pitch during the third inning of his start against the Mets over the weekend, and while both initial x-rays were negative and a follow-up CT scan did not reveal a fracture, manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) last night that the right-hander is still likely to require a trip to the injured list. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for the Rays, as Pepiot had carried a strong 3.12 ERA and 3.32 FIP into his abbreviated start over the weekend and had established himself as a reliable arm in the club’s rotation since joining the Rays in the Tyler Glasnow trade this past winter.

Left-hander Jacob Lopez is the only pitcher on the 40-man roster to be drawing starts at the Triple- A level, but he’s struggled badly in both the major and minor leagues this season. If the club doesn’t want to insert Lopez into the rotation while Pepiot is out, former top prospect Brendan McKay could be an option after performing excellently across five starts at the Double-A level this season. Of course, the Rays could also simply rely on their bullpen to cover the innings lost from Pepiot’s injury, as they frequently have in the past when short on starting pitching.

2. Thomas to undergo MRI:

Diamondbacks center fielder Alek Thomas “felt a little something” in his hamstring over the weekend and took Monday off to try and avoid the issue worsening, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert), but upon returning to baseball activity yesterday Thomas still didn’t feel completely normal. As a result, Arizona brass decided to send the 24-year-old for an MRI to further evaluate the situation. Thomas appeared in just four games this season before going on the injured list at the end of March due to a strained hamstring.

While Corbin Carroll has performed well defensively in center field and Jake McCarthy has hit well in Thomas’s stead, a notable setback would still be a costly hit to the team’s depth. A delayed return from Thomas, who’s played just four games this season, puts off a tricky decision on how to handle the outfield mix going forward. Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. entered the season as the clear starters at the outfield corners but both have struggled to this point — Gurriel has faded after a blistering start — while McCarthy has excelled despite opening the season in a bench role.

3. Red Sox to shuffle roster:

A handful of roster moves are expected for the Red Sox later today, headlined by the return of right-hander Nick Pivetta from the injured list. Also returning from the injured list is utility infielder Romy Gonzalez, with righty Naoyuki Uwasawa headed to Triple-A and infielder Zack Short poised to be designated for assignment in the corresponding moves.

Pivetta’s return to the rotation comes as the Red Sox are set to face longtime ace Chris Sale in Atlanta for the first time since he was swapped to the Braves in exchange for infielder Vaughn Grissom. While Grissom has only just returned from the injured list after being sidelined by groin and hamstring issues to this point in the season, Sale has enjoyed a renaissance with the Braves as he’s posted a solid 3.44 ERA with an even better 3.01 FIP across six starts. He’ll toe the rubber opposite Pivetta at 7:20pm local time this evening.

4. MLBTR Chat Today:

The 2024 season is now in full swing, and two teams recently got a head start on trade season with the Luis Arraez trade. If you have questions regarding your favorite club’s start to the campaign, or perhaps questions that look ahead to this summer’s trade deadline and the 2024-25 offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a live chat with readers today at 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to join in on the chat once it begins or read the transcript after it is completed.

The Opener: Pitchers’ Duel, Yankees/Astros, Recent Opt-Outs

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Pitchers’ Duel in Atlanta:

Just two weeks after Red Sox right-hander Kutter Crawford faced off against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga in an early-season pitcher’s duel that pitted the then-best righty and lefty in baseball by ERA against each other in Boston, Crawford will again take the mound opposite one of the other best starting pitchers in the league to this point in the young 2024 season: Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Crawford sports an excellent 1.56 ERA with a 2.52 FIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate through seven starts this season. Those figures are very similar to those posted by Lopez in five starts this season: a 1.50 ERA, 2.94 FIP and 27% strikeout rate.

Those hot starts have left Crawford as the fifth-best starter in baseball by ERA with at least 30 innings of work this season, while Lopez ranks fourth. The strong results early in the season are all the more impressive given the fact that neither hurler was starting games this time last year; Lopez had pitched almost exclusively in relief over the past two seasons before being stretched out by Atlanta this winter, while Crawford was bumped to the bullpen in early April of last year and did not return to the Boston rotation until June. The two righties are set to face off this at 7:20pm local time this evening in Atlanta.

2. Series Preview: Astros @ Yankees

A three-game set featuring one of the more heated inter-division rivalries in recent years is set to kick off at 7:05pm local time in the Bronx this evening as the Yankees host the Astros. The look of the rivalry is very different six weeks into the regular season than it was in 2023, however. Last season saw the Astros capture their sixth-consecutive full-season AL West crown and make their seventh-consecutive trip to the ALCS as the Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since 2016, but this year the Astros have struggled badly in the early going while the Yankees have gotten off to a strong start on the back of offseason addition Juan Soto.

That’s left the Astros (12-22) with a nearly mirror opposite record to the surging Yankees (23-13) headed into this week’s series. It’s an important series for both clubs, with Houston desperate to make up ground in the AL West and avoid falling even further out of the playoff picture while the Yankees sit just one game back of the AL East-leading Orioles. Tonight’s game will see the Astros send future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (2.08 ERA in 2024) to the mound opposite Yankees righty Luis Gil (3.19 ERA). Gil will be followed by left-hander Carlos Rodon (3.68 ERA) on the mound for New York tomorrow, while the Astros figure to counter with youngster Spencer Arrighetti (8.27 ERA). Right-handers Ronel Blanco (2.09 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (3.41 ERA) will finish off the series for the Astros and Yankees respectively on Thursday.

3. Recent veterans who’ve opted out:

First baseman Mike Ford, left-hander Chasen Shreve and right-hander Mychal Givens opted out of their respective minor league deals with the Reds, with the Rangers and with the Marlins last week.

Ford, in particular, has had a massive start to the season in Triple-A, hitting .297/.381/.538 with six homers in 105 plate appearances. That followed a huge spring training performance in which he hit .455/.486/.727 in 35 trips to the plate. Shreve posted a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 Triple-A frames and posted a 4.63 ERA in 44 1/3 big league innings last year. He’s worked to a career 3.97 ERA in 356 MLB frames. Givens was tagged for 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings with the Marlins’ top affiliate, but half of those came in his first appearance of the season after signing late in spring training. Knee and shoulder injuries limited him to four innings last year, but he has a lengthy track record as a successful late-inning arm. Any of the three could help out a big league club and should come off the board again before long.

The Opener: Prospect Promotions, Steele, Martin

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With 20% of the 2024 regular season now in the books, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Prospect promotions incoming:

The Guardians plan to select the contract of first baseman Kyle Manzardo prior to today’s game against the Tigers this evening. Cleveland will need to make room on both its active and 40-man rosters to accommodate the addition of Manzardo, though the former will be accomplished by the club’s expected placement of outfielder Steven Kwan on the 10-day IL. Also reportedly receiving the bump to the majors today is Giants right-hander Mason Black. He too will require corresponding moves on both the 40-man and active rosters before this afternoon’s game against the Phillies.

Acquired from the Rays at last year’s trade deadline in exchange for Aaron Civale, the 23-year-old Manzardo is a consensus top-100 talent with little left to prove in the minor leagues, slashing an incredible .303/.375/.642 in 128 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level this year. A full-time first baseman, Manzardo’s defensive limitations leave him likely to handle either first or DH alongside Josh Naylor, with Estevan Florial moving to occupy left field in Kwan’s absence. As for Black, he appears poised to step into the San Francisco rotation after the club lost left-hander Blake Snell to the injured list and received a combined 4 2/3 innings from starting pitchers Keaton Winn and Logan Webb over the weekend. Black, a 24-year-old with an excellent 1.01 ERA in six starts at the Triple-A level this season, figures to be tasked with helping to give the club’s bullpen a much-needed breather.

2. Steele to be activated:

Cubs left-hander Justin Steele has been on the injured list since suffering a hamstring strain on Opening Day. Steele made his first All-Star team in 2023, posted a 3.06 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.02 FIP, and finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting last year. He’d been cruising through 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball at the time of his injury.

The Cubs will need to make a corresponding move to make room for Steele on the active roster prior to the game. Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad have all been outstanding in Steele’s absence, and the staff ace’s return should further bolster a starting staff that ranks third in the majors with a 3.13 ERA this year. Steele’s return will also allow the club to move either Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown to the bullpen, thereby strengthening the relief corps.

3. Could Martin be facing an IL stint?

Veteran right-hander Chris Martin was dominant in his first season with the Red Sox last year, pitching to a sterling 1.05 ERA with a 2.44 FIP in 55 appearances while acting as the primary set-up man for closer Kenley Jansen. Things haven’t gone quite as smoothly for the 37-year-old in his second year with the club, however. While he’s struck out a strong 25% of batters faced, Martin has seen his ERA balloon to 5.11 this season and has made just one appearance since the calendar flipped to May.

Per Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe, that absence has been due to Martin dealing with “lingering soreness” in his non-throwing shoulder that could ultimately require a trip to the injured list. While an injury in Martin’s left shoulder is certainly not as serious as one in his right would be, Abraham notes that the Red Sox are concerned that the soreness could impact his mechanics and negatively impact his throwing arm down the line. Should Martin require a trip to the shelf, left-hander Bailey Horn is the only relief arm available to come up from the minors currently on the 40-man roster. If the club is willing to clear a 40-man spot, veterans like Lucas Luetge and Joely Rodriguez or a prospect like Luis Guerrero would become available.

Giants Select Jakson Reetz, Designate Mitch White For Assignment

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The Giants announced a set of roster moves this afternoon including selecting the contract of catcher Jakson Reetz ahead of tonight’s game against the Phillies to take the place of veteran catcher Tom Murphy, who was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left knee sprain. Right-hander Mitch White was designated for assignment to make room for Reetz on the 40-man roster, while righty Daulton Jefferies was recalled to replace White on the active roster. Robert Murray of FanSided first reported Reetz’s selection to the majors, while Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area first suggested that Reetz would be the next man up in the event of an additional roster move.

Reetz, 28, was a third-round pick by the Nationals in the 2014 draft but didn’t make his MLB debut until 2021, when he appeared in two games with the club while filling in for injured veteran Yan Gomes alongside Tres Barrera. He received just two plate appearances at the big league level, going one-for-two with a double before being sent back to the minor leagues. Reetz has not appeared in the majors since then, instead bouncing between the Nationals, Royals, Brewers, and Giants minor league systems.

Despite his lack of MLB opportunities in recent years, Reetz has generally hit quite well at the Triple-A level, particularly for a catcher. He owns a career slash line of .234/.328/.478 in 577 trips to the plate at the level and enjoyed a particularly strong season with the Giants last year, for whom he slashed .243/.342/.500 in 82 games behind the dish.

While Reetz’s strong defensive reputation behind the plate and solid offensive numbers likely would have earned him a look by now in another organization, San Francisco is deep enough behind the plate to have parted ways with former top prospect Joey Bart earlier this season due to a roster crunch. However, with Patrick Bailey on the injured list due to a concussion and Murphy now out with an injury of his own, the Giants are now left to rely on 2023 Rule 5 Draft pick Blake Sabol and Reetz behind the plate for the time being.

As for Murphy, the veteran backstop told reporters (including The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly) following yesterday’s game that he had “felt a pop” while blocking the ball and was slated to undergo an MRI today. No timetable has been made available for the 33-year-old’s return to action, though even a short absence is a blow the San Francisco given the club’s quickly evaporating depth behind the plate. Murphy signed with the club this past offseason on a two-year, $8.25MM deal to serve as Bailey’s backup but has struggled in the early going this season, slashing just .118/.211/.235 in 13 games. Hopefully, the time on the shelf will offer Murphy a chance to reset ahead of returning to the Giants later on in the season.

As for White, his brief tenure with his hometown team may be coming to an end as the club will have seven days to either trade the right-hander or attempt to pass him through waivers. Should White successfully clear waivers, the Giants would have the opportunity to outright the righty to the minor leagues. The 29-year-old righty once received top-100 prospect buzz as a member of the Dodgers and posted a strong 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with the club across parts of three seasons but has struggled badly since being traded to the Blue Jays prior to the 2022 trade deadline.

White posted a 7.65 ERA in 24 appearances with the Blue Jays before the club ultimately designated him for assignment earlier this year, at which point he was swapped to the Giants in a cash deal. White’s return to the NL West hasn’t gone well as he’s been lit up for seven runs on eight hits and five walks while striking out just one in 5 1/3 innings of work. Taking his place on the roster will be Jefferies, who allowed 13 runs (nine earned) in 4 2/3 innings with the Giants earlier this season but has settled in at the Triple-A level with a solid 3.44 ERA in 18 1/3 frames since then.

Dodgers Place Evan Phillips On 15-Day Injured List

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The Dodgers announced this afternoon that right-hander Evan Phillips has been place on the 15-day injured list, with veteran righty Blake Treinen being activated off the IL in the corresponding move. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) this afternoon that Phillips suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain when his spike caught in the outfield grass while playing catch yesterday. Roberts added that the club is hoping that Phillips will only require a minimum stint on the shelf due to the issue.

Even if Phillips only requires the 15 day minimum, the news is still a major blow to the Dodgers. The 29-year-old has been among the most dominant relievers in baseball this year with a microscopic 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings of work to go with eight saves, a 1.32 FIP, and a 30.9% strikeout rate. The righty has been an anchor for the club’s bullpen, which has struggled somewhat despite a decent 3.47 ERA overall.

The group’s collective 4.19 FIP is bottom-ten in the majors and its xFIP, fWAR, and groundball rate are all well below league average. Perhaps most concerning of all is that the club’s relief corps isn’t striking many batters out; only the Giants’, Diamondbacks’, and Rockies’ relievers have struck out batters at a lower clip. Those lackluster metrics are further compounded by the club’s overuse of the bullpen to this point in the season; Dodgers relief arms have thrown a whopping 142 2/3 innings this season, second to only the Marlins in the majors.

Given the state of the club’s bullpen, it’s perhaps not a surprise that Roberts told reporters he wasn’t sure who would close games while Phillips is on the shelf. Daniel Hudson appears to be the most obvious choice, as he’s acted as the club’s primary set-up man this season and sports a solid 3.60 ERA in 15 appearances, but he’s blown back-to-back save opportunities and has already allowed four home runs this year. Joe Kelly has been Hudson’s partner in setting up for Phillips, but the veteran righty has struggled to a 4.85 ERA in 13 innings of work this season.

It’s possible then, that Treinen could find himself thrust into the closer’s role now that he’s back in the big leagues. The right-hander has always been nothing short of excellent for the club when healthy: in 103 innings of work in a Dodgers uniform, Treinen boasts a 2.45 ERA and 3.00 FIP with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 56.2% groundball rate. He’s certainly found success in the closer’s role before as well, including the 2018 campaign when he posted a 0.78 ERA in 80 1/3 innings of work for the A’s while picking up 38 saves and finish sixth in AL Cy Young award voting.

Despite his excellent resume, however, closing games would be a tall ask for a pitcher who last appeared on a big league mound in 2022 and has just five innings of work to his name since the end of the 2021 season. It’s possible, then, that the club could simply opt for a closer-by-committee situation while Phillips is on the shelf, particularly if the injury ends up being as minor as currently believed. In that case, Treinen could get occasional save opportunities alongside the likes of Hudson, Alex Vesia, and perhaps even Michael Grove.

Padres Select Donovan Solano

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The Padres announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Donovan Solano. Infielder Eguy Rosario was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move, and San Diego’s 40-man roster now stands at 40.

Solano, 36, is a veteran of ten MLB seasons who first made his debut back in 2012. He struggled to hit at the big league level earlier in his career, with a .257/.306/.331 slash line in 370 games from 2012 to 2016, and didn’t appear at all at the major league level in 2017 or 2018. Since resurfacing with the Giants back in 2019, however, Solano has emerged as one of the more underrated utility hitters in the game in recent years. Since returning to the big leagues in 2019, Solano has slashed an impressive .296/.355/.413 (112 wRC+) without a single below-average offensive season during that timeframe. He’s been even more effective against southpaws, boasting a 119 wRC+ and just a 17.2% strikeout rate against lefty pitchers over the past five years.

On top of that strong work at the plate, Solano has offered considerable positional flexibility. He’s appeared at all four infield spots throughout his career, and while the veteran last appeared in a game at shortstop back in 2021 and has primarily played first base in recent years, he’s still more than capable of covering both second and third base as needed with Outs Above Average grading him as a scratch to slightly below average defender at both positions in each of the last three seasons.

The addition of Solano to the club’s positional mix adds yet another quality infielder to a roster deep in infield talent. With former infielders Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. now playing the outfield on a full-time basis in San Diego, the Solano figures to join the newly-acquired Luis Arraez in taking starts at first, second, and third base when necessary to back up regular infielders Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth. Arraez figures to get the lion’s share of playing time at DH, though Solano figures to act as a solid right-handed complement to both he and Cronenworth to provide manager Mike Shildt with a bit of extra flexibility and protection against injuries.

Making room for Solano’s addition to the active roster is Rosario. The 24-year-old made his MLB debut back in 2022 with the Padres and has generally impressed in an up-and-down role over the past three seasons, but his most recent stint in the majors was perhaps the most impressive of all. In 52 trips to the plate that came mostly by way of platooning with Tyler Wade at third base while Machado recovered from offseason surgery earlier this year, Rosario hit a fantastic .250/.294/.542 (141 wRC+) with a whopping eight extra base hits, including three home runs.

That impressive work at the plate combined with Rosario’s ability to play both second and third base as well as shortstop figure to make him a leading candidate to return to the majors in San Diego should an injury require the club to dip into its depth options. Until then, Rosario will return to the Triple-A level where he’s slashed a solid .282/.363/.486 over the past two seasons.

Marlins Select Eli Villalobos

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The Marlins announced this afternoon that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Eli Villalobos. Right-hander Darren McCaughan was designated for assignment in the corresponding move. If Villalobos appears in a game with the club, it’ll be his major league debut.

Villalobos, 26, came up through Miami’s minor league system and was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November 2022 to protect him from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft but found himself squeezed off the club’s roster early in the 2023 season, at which point he was claimed by the Pirates. He was later DFA’d by the Pirates to make room for top prospect Henry Davis on their 40-man roster and was promptly claimed by the Marlins in late June, ending his three-month sojourn out of the organization. Villalobos was once again designated for assignment by Miami shortly thereafter but this time cleared waivers and was outrighted to the minor leagues, where he has remained ever since.

Now, Villalobos will once again get a spot on the Marlins’ 40-man roster and this time will receive an active roster spot to go with it. The right-hander is more or less a pure relief prospect who hasn’t started a game since the 2019 season but has been relief on for multi-inning appearances at the Triple-A level this year, where he’s pitched to a 4.73 ERA in 13 1/3 innings of work across nine appearances while topping out at 51 pitches in a single outing. That ability to pitch multiple innings could make Villalobos a long relief option for the Marlins behind today’s starter, Sixto Sanchez, who is still building up his pitch count and threw just 68 pitches last time out.

It’s a role that McCaughan occupied with the club in recent days. The 28-year-old was a 12th-round pick by the Mariners in the 2017 draft and pitched fourteen innings for his original club from 2021 to 2023 before joining the Marlins this offseason. He was selected to the club’s roster last week to fill the role of long man in the bullpen and struggled through 4 2/3 innings against Oakland last night, allowing eight runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out just two. The brutal outing brings his career ERA at the big league level to 9.16, and the righty’s 5.26 ERA in 89 career games at the Triple-A level inspires little confidence in his ability to be more than a depth option at the big league level going forward. The Marlins will have one week to trade McCaughan or attempt to pass the righty through waivers.

NL East Notes: Robles, Bohm, Murphy

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Nationals center fielder Victor Robles has played just four games this season due to a hamstring strain he suffered in early April, and manager Dave Martinez told reporters (per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) on Friday that he’s “running really well” in his rehab assignment, indicating he remains on track for a return at some point this month.

Perhaps more notably, Martinez indicated that Robles isn’t likely to take back the starting job in center field upon his return. 24-year-old youngster Jacob Young has made a strong impression as a regular in Robles’s absence, with a .311/.354/.378 slash line in 81 trips to the plate. That production is good for a 113 wRC+, and Young has also gone 12-for-13 on the basepaths. That type of offensive production would be hard for the club to part with, but its nonetheless surprising that the Nationals don’t plan to return Robles, a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport who has patrolled the position for eight seasons, to his usual spot in the lineup.

With Young seemingly taking over as the regular center fielder long term, Martinez noted that Robles will still play center field on occasion but “could play some right field as well.” The club has relied on Eddie Rosario and Alex Call in right field as of late, with the veteran Rosario struggling badly to an eye-popping -10 wRC+ to this point in the season that indicates he’s been 110% worse than league average at the plate. Call has impressed with five hits and three walks in 21 trips to the plate this season, but that production has come across just seven games at the big league level.

More from around the NL East…

  • The Phillies suffered a major injury scare last night when third baseman Alec Bohm exited the club’s win over the Giants with right hip tightness. The move was labeled precautionary by manager Rob Thomson (as noted by Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) in the aftermath of yesterday’s game and Bohm himself indicated to reporters (including Coffey) that he isn’t particularly concerned about the issue. That Bohm seemingly won’t require a trip to the injured list is surely a massive relief for Phillies fans, as the club lost Trea Turner to the shelf yesterday and he had been the club’s second best hitter behind Bohm this year. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a look at Bohm’s hot start this season, during which he’s hit a whopping .364/.435/.579 in 138 trips to the plate.
  • Braves backstop Sean Murphy has been ramping up baseball activities as he rehabs an oblique injury that sidelined him during the first game of the season back in March. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Murphy had already been ramping up his throwing from behind the plate and caught a few bullpen sessions but has now progressed to swinging the bat, starting with him hitting off a tee during the club’s road trip to Seattle last week. The return of Murphy would surely be a major boost to Atlanta, as the 29-year-old has emerged as one of the best catchers in the sport in recent seasons. That said, veteran Travis d’Arnaud has done exceptionally well in Murphy’s absence, slashing an incredible .269/.341/.564 with a whopping five home runs in just 88 trips to the plate this season.

Royals Notes: Marsh, Lynch, Selby, Hernandez

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The Royals have been without right-hander Alec Marsh for just over a week now, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters yesterday (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that even though Marsh is expected to throw just 60-65 pitches in a rehab start today, the team is hopeful he’ll be able to return to the big league rotation after just one rehab appearance assuming today’s outing goes well.

That timeline would put Marsh, 26 later this month, in line for a minimum stay on the injured list and line him up to take the ball in Anaheim against the Angels on Friday. If the righty is able to return after a minimum stint, it would provide a huge boost to the Royals as they look to capitalize on a hot start that has seen them go 20-14 to this point in the season, putting them just 1.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Prior to his placement on the shelf due to an elbow contusion late last month, Marsh had been a big part of the club’s success. Through five starts this season, the right-hander sports a sterling 2.70 ERA and a 3.26 FIP in spite of a lackluster 15.9% strikeout rate. While he’s posted a strong 6.5% walk rate to this point in the season, the youngster’s .235 BABIP allowed and minuscule 3.2% home run/fly ball ratio both suggest that regression could be on the way for him, as do his 4.66 xERA and 4.39 xFIP. Even in the event that Marsh’s results regress back to that of a mid-to-back of the rotation arm, however, it would still be a substantial improvement over his rookie campaign. Marsh struggled badly in 74 1/3 innings of work in the majors last year, posting a 5.69 ERA with a near-matching 5.70 FIP despite a 24.9% strikeout rate.

While Marsh prepares for his return to the big leagues, the Royals announced today that they’ve recalled left-hander Daniel Lynch IV, optioning right-hander Colin Selby to make room for Lynch on the active roster. Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star relayed last night that Lynch was slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Rangers. Lynch, 27, was once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport but has struggled at the big league level to this point in his career, with a 5.19 ERA and 4.79 FIP in 252 innings of work across 51 starts dating back to his debut during the 2021 season. Those numbers include nine starts at the big league level last year where he posted a 4.64 ERA and 5.17 FIP amid rotator cuff and shoulder issues.

Lynch returned to action during Spring Training but ultimately lost out on the fifth starter role in Kansas City to Marsh, leaving him relegated to the Triple-A level to open the season. He’s struggled badly through six starts at the level this season, posting a 5.86 ERA in 27 2/3 innings of work while striking out just 17.3% of batters faced. Nonetheless, the Royals will turn to him for today’s start, where he’ll take on the tough assignment of facing the reigning World Series champion Rangers.

Marsh isn’t the only pitcher who’s making progress in their attempt to return from the injured list. Per MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, right-hander Carlos Hernandez is beginning to ramp up his activity during a rehab assignment at the Triple-A level after missing the start of the season due to a shoulder impingement. The Royals have mostly enjoyed steady production from their bullpen this season thanks to veteran additions such as John Schreiber, Tyler Duffy, and Nick Anderson, but righty Matt Sauer has struggled badly in a long relief role to this point in the season and the healthy return of Hernandez, who struck out 25.7% of batters faced last year en route to a solid 4.28 FIP, could offer Kansas City a more reliable option for length out of the bullpen.

Cardinals Activate Dylan Carlson From Injured List

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TODAY: The Cardinals have officially announced Carlson’s activation. Pages was optioned to make room for the center fielder on the club’s active roster.

May 4: The Cardinals are set to activate outfielder Dylan Carlson from the 10-day injured list tomorrow, according to The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Catcher Pedro Pages is expected to be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Woo also relays that left-hander Matthew Liberatore is expected to move from the bullpen to the rotation to take the ball in tomorrow afternoon’s game against the White Sox.

Carlson, 25, appeared poised to enter the season as the everyday center fielder in St. Louis until a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder sidelined him just before Opening Day. In his absence, the Cardinals have scuffled to a 15-18 start that leaves them just half a game out of last place in the NL Central. Much of those struggles can be attributed to a lack of offense from the club’s lineup, which has posted a collective 86 wRC+ that ranks sixth from the bottom in the majors. That figure has been dragged down by brutal offensive production from the club’s outfield mix, which to this point in the season has consisted of a combination of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani. With Donovan’s 92 wRC+ leading the pack, Cardinals outfielders have combined for a paltry slash line of .188/.268/.294 with an NL-worst wRC+ of 66.

Given those significant struggles, Carlson’s return to action is welcome news for fans in St. Louis even as he himself is far from a sure thing offensively. The club’s first-round pick in the 2016 draft, Carlson was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport when he reached the majors during the shortened 2020 season and earned a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting during his first full campaign the following year. While he hit a solid .266/.343/.437 in 149 games that year, he’s struggled to repeat that production over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Carlson has slashed just .230/.316/.364 with a below-average 94 wRC+ in 204 combined games. Still, those numbers are at least decent for a center fielder and would represent a major upgrade over the club’s current production at the position, where is hitting .182/.280/.227 with a wRC+ of 56.

As for Liberatore, the 24-year-old has performed admirably in 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season with a 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, but a lackluster 16.4% strikeout rate and a much higher 4.18 FIP suggest that the lefty’s solid results have benefited from good fortune. While those questionable peripherals aren’t necessarily a reason for the Cardinals to avoid using him in the rotation, starting Liberatore is nonetheless a confusing choice given the lefty hasn’t thrown more than 38 pitches in a game since March and has struggled badly in the role throughout his major league career with a 5.72 ERA through 18 starts.

It’s not yet clear if Liberatore’s move to the rotation is a sign that he’s the club’s long-term replacement for veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is reportedly expected to miss at least “a couple of weeks” with a lower back strain, or if Liberatore’s start tomorrow will merely be a spot start before he passes the baton to one of the club’s other options, such as southpaw Zack Thompson or prospect Sem Robberse. Thompson made two starts for the club earlier this season but was optioned to Triple-A after allowing ten runs in 3 1/3 innings of work following a move to the bullpen, while Robberse has dominated Triple-A to the tune of a 1.77 ERA in six starts but has yet to make his major league debut.

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