The Opener: World Series, Padres, Twins
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Blue Jays tie the World Series:
The World Series is all tied up after the Blue Jays managed to get to Shohei Ohtani, who surrendered four runs in six innings of work last night in a 6-2 victory for the Jays. That puts the Dodgers on the back foot somewhat, as they enter Game 5 needing a win to avoid leaving their home turf on the verge of elimination. With that at stake, the Dodgers will turn to southpaw Blake Snell (2.35 ERA) four his second start of the series. They’ll hope for better results than he garnered in his first start against the Jays, as he surrendered five runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out just four in his five innings of work in Game 1. Pitching opposite Snell will be right-hander Trey Yesavage (3.21 ERA), who had a decent but abbreviated outing in Game 1 where he surrendered two runs on four hits and three walks while striking out five across four innings. Tonight’s game at Dodger Stadium is scheduled to begin at 5pm local time.
2. Padres enter second round of interviews in managerial search:
The Padres are moving on to the next stage of their efforts to replace Mike Shildt in the dugout, per reporting yesterday, as they narrow their focus to a group of finalists that includes future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. It’s unclear which other candidates remain in the mix for the job, although both pitching coach Ruben Niebla and bench coach Brian Esposito were at least part of the first round of interviews. Special assistant (and former Mariners manager) Scott Servais, Rangers special assistant (and former Padres catcher) Nick Hundley, and Cubs bench coach (and former Padres bench coach) Ryan Flaherty have all been connected to the position at one point or another, as well.
3. Twins nearing managerial decision:
While the Padres enter the final stages of their search, a decision could be on the way in Minnesota as well. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested last night that the Twins could decide on their new manager by the end of the week, and a quartet of finalists for the job has already been reported: Flaherty and Servais are both in the mix for that job as well alongside former Pirates manager Derek Shelton and Yankees hitting coach James Rowson. Given the overlap in candidates between the Twins’ and Padres’ searches, it’s entirely possible that one of the two clubs making their decision could spur action from the other, particularly if Servais or Flaherty is named manager by either club. Atlanta, Washington, and Colorado have all yet to decide their next manager as well, though in the case of the Rockies that process won’t get underway until a new head of baseball operations is named.
Padres Interview Albert Pujols In Managerial Search
October 28: Pujols had a second, in-person interview today, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres have narrowed the search down to the finalists. Pitching coach Ruben Niebla and bench coach Brian Esposito were also interviewed in the first round, though it is unclear if they are still being considered. Meanwhile, former Mariners manager and current Padres special assistant for player development Scott Servais is also in the mix, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
October 20: As the Padres search for a replacement for retiring manager Mike Shildt, they’re setting their sights on a big name: future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. According to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Pujols is set to interview for the position with the Padres, though it’s not yet known when that interview will take place.
Pujols’s name isn’t exactly new as a managerial candidate. He spent the early part of the offseason closely connected to the Angels as a potential successor to Ron Washington and Ray Montgomery in Anaheim. He was thought the be the favorite for that position at one point and was even known to be discussing a contract with Angels brass less than two weeks ago, but since then it’s been reported that Pujols will interview with Baltimore while the Halos have begun interviewing other candidates. While Pujols managing in Anaheim doesn’t seem to be off the table, it no longer appears to be a foregone conclusion as it once might have.
San Diego makes a third managerial vacancy that Pujols is set to interview for, and it’s quite an attractive one. Unlike the Orioles and Angels, the Padres made it to the postseason this year before falling to the Cubs in three games during the Wild Card series. While the Dodgers have a firm grip on the NL West that they don’t seem likely to relinquish any time soon, San Diego has made the playoffs in four of the last six seasons and even advanced to the NLCS back in 2022. They’ve averaged 88.5 wins per season over the past four years and have a talented core of players that includes Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Mason Miller, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Nick Pivetta, among others.
With that said, it’s also worth noting that the Padres are set to lose front-of-the-rotation arms Dylan Cease and Michael King this winter, with the starting rotation serving as a major question mark headed into next year. The questions regarding the rotation and the fact that some of the club’s star players like Machado are getting older could mean that the Padres don’t have quite as bright of a future as a team like the Orioles, which is littered with exciting young players in their prime who figure to be under team control for years to come.
Pujols is far from the only candidate for the Padres job, of course. Acee notes that pitching coach Ruben Niebla is expected to interview for the position. Cubs Bench Coach Ryan Flaherty, who also served as bench coach in San Diego under Bob Melvin and was a finalist for the manager’s chair before it ultimately went to Shildt two years ago, is also a speculated candidate for the job. Former Padres catcher and Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley is known to be of interest to San Diego for the role, but he recently withdrew from consideration from the manager role with the Giants due to family considerations and it’s not known if he would consider taking the Padres job at this point.
The Opener: World Series, Springer, Coaching Staffs
As the Fall Classic continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. World Series goes long in Game 3:
The Blue Jays fell to the Dodgers in heartbreaking fashion last night as Freddie Freeman hit a walk off homer in the 18th inning to end the game in a 6-5 with for Los Angeles. The game is now tied for the longest game in World Series history with the 18-inning affair in 2018 between the Red Sox and Dodgers, which also ended on a walk-off homer at Dodger Stadium. As the teams get ready for a pivotal Game 4 at 5pm local time this evening, the starting pitchers will be more important than ever after a game where both bullpens emptied the tank.
Shohei Ohtani (2.87 ERA) is set to take the mound for L.A. tonight for his first start since the ten-strikeout, three-homer game to clinch against the Brewers that has widely been called the greatest individual performance during a postseason game in MLB history. His opponent will be right-hander Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA), who surrendered four runs in 9 2/3 innings of work across two starts during the ALCS.
2. Jays, Springer await MRI results:
A shadow looming over last night’s game from Toronto’s perspective, even prior to the devastating loss, was the status of veteran slugger George Springer. One of the most impactful hitters in postseason history, Springer exited last night’s game due to what the team is currently describing as “right side discomfort.” The diagnosis immediately brings to mind concerns over an oblique injury, which would surely bring Springer’s season to an abrupt end if confirmed by an MRI. Springer had already gone for testing before the end of last night’s game, and we should know more about his status ahead of Game 4 later today. If Springer were to be sidelined, one silver lining would be that putting Bo Bichette at DH could allow the Jays to use him a bit more aggressively than they have so far by avoiding the toll taken by fielding.
3. Coaching staff changes around the game:
While the Dodgers and Blue Jays continue their fight for the commissioner’s trophy, other teams around the league are already in offseason mode. While much of the focus to this point has been on managerial searches and subsequent hirings, there have been a number of coaching moves made around the league as well. Just yesterday, the Mets brought in a new hitting coach while parting ways with their first base coach, and the Pirates hired their next pitching coach. There’s a number of other coaching vacancies around the league, but one team in particular to keep an eye on would be the Guardians after they lost associate manager Craig Albernaz to the Orioles when he took over their managerial gig and major league field coordinator Kai Correa when he departed to become the Mets’ next bench coach.
Mariners Notes: Naylor, Polanco, Suarez
The Mariners have not exactly been shy about their desire to re-sign first baseman Josh Naylor as he heads into free agency this winter. For a club that seemingly does not have much financial flexibility this offseason, that could take up the majority of Seattle’s budget space, and would seemingly make reunions with second baseman Jorge Polanco and third baseman Eugenio Suarez unlikely. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times offered some additional perspective on the club’s trio of pending free agent infielders yesterday that suggests things may not be that simple, however.
While Naylor has been emphasized as the club’s priority, Divish suggests that it’s possible Polanco actually winds up being the one most likely to sign. That’s in part due to Naylor’s age, with Divish noting that he’s likely to seek a deal longer than three years in free agency. That’s the sort of contract that has typically fallen outside of Seattle’s comfort zone under Dipoto in free agency, although it’s not hard to imagine that the Mariners might view Naylor as an exception to that. After all, the club has been willing to go far beyond the two years and $24MM Mitch Garver deal that remains Dipoto’s largest expenditure in free agency when it comes to extensions. Luis Castillo extended on a five-year deal in his age-29 season, while Cal Raleigh‘s six-year extension came in his age-28 campaign.
Naylor won’t turn 29 until next June, so committing to a player who has already spent time in the organization on a deal that takes him to his age-32 or -33 season is hardly unthinkable in a vacuum. Even so, it’s undeniable that Polanco’s contract is far more likely to fall into the Mariners’ typical comfort zone when it comes to free agents. Divish writes that Polanco is likely to command a contract “similar” to the aforementioned Garver deal and that he’s unlikely to receive a third guaranteed year on his next contract. There’s some logic to that assumption given the tough market Polanco found in free agency last winter, although he’s coming off a much stronger season in 2025 even has he heads into his age-32 campaign.
With that said, if the Mariners will attempt to wait out the market on their three infielders in order to try and bring one back at a relative bargain, Polanco standing as the most likely one to fall through the cracks due to his age, injury history, and previous struggles on the open market would make some sense. At the very least, that sort of scenario seems to be the kind of situation where Divish sees a reunion between the Mariners and Suarez as a possibility. Divish writes that, as Suarez heads into his age-34 season with his 35th birthday coming next July, a contract that keeps him in Seattle beyond one additional year seems “unlikely.” Coming off a season where he clubbed 49 home runs and made his second career All-Star appearance, it’s hard to imagine that Suarez won’t be able to get at least a two-year deal in free agency this winter barring a surprisingly cold market.
Given Seattle’s apparent financial limitations, it’s hard to imagine more than one of their trio of free agent infielders returning in 2026 unless a trade opens up additional payroll space this winter. RosterResource projects them for a $132MM payroll in 2025 as things stand, roughly $31MM below their stated target. While it’s at least theoretically possible that two of the three could fit within that budget without shedding salary, it would leave them with virtually no room to maneuver beyond that.
That would be a problem when other areas of the roster could use attention besides the infield, as Divish floats the possibility of bringing in relief help to fortify a bullpen that will lose Caleb Ferguson this winter or perhaps making an addition in the outfield, where Victor Robles and Dominic Canzone currently appear poised to platoon in right, as other possible avenues for the Mariners to upgrade this winter. Even if Robles and Canzone remain in place as the likely duo in right field, finding a platoon partner for Luke Raley at DH or upgrading the bench could be worthwhile pursuits to explore as well.
Mets Hire Troy Snitker As Hitting Coach
The Mets are hiring Troy Snitker to serve as their next hitting coach, according to a report from Andy Martino of SNY.
Snitker, 36, is the son of former Braves manager Brian Snitker. Drafted in the 19th round of the 2011 draft by Atlanta, he spent three seasons catching in the minors for the organization. After retiring as a player, he joined the Astros organization as a hitting coach for the club’s Double-A affiliate in Corpus Christi before being promoted to the big league staff prior to the 2019 season.
Snitker spent seven seasons as a hitting coach for the Astros and won a World Series with the club in 2022. He was among a number of coaches and front office staff the team parted ways with following a disappointing 2025 season where Houston missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016. Even with last year’s playoff loss, it’s hard not to be impressed by the Astros’ offense during Snitker’s tenure with the club. The team hit .259/.329/.435 during his tenure, with the second-highest wRC+ (111) behind the Dodgers and the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
He didn’t wait long to find his next position, as he’s now joining the Mets following their own overhaul of their coaching staff following a frustrating 2025 campaign where they narrowly missed the playoffs themselves. New York already brought in Jeff Albert to run the team’s hitting program in 2026, and Snitker will work under Albert in that regard. Together, Albert and Snitker will be tasked with reworking a hitting program that performed well overall, with a 112 wRC+ that ranked fifth in baseball in 2025.
Much of that production was thanks to stars Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Francisco Lindor, however, and disappointing seasons from young members of the team’s supporting cast like Mark Vientos and Luisangel Acuna suggest there could be some room for improvement when it comes to the development side of things. That’s something Snitker could help with, seeing as his time in the organization coincided with the development of Astros stars like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Pena.
The Opener: World Series, Orioles, Manager/GM Searches
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. World Series heads to Los Angeles:
The World Series departed Toronto yesterday all tied up after a dominant complete game from right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now both teams have arrived in L.A. for Game 3. On the mound for the Dodgers is right-hander Tyler Glasnow (3.19), while the Blue Jays will counter with veteran righty Max Scherzer (5.19 ERA). The future Hall of Famer had an uneven year, but he did manage to strike out five in 5 2/3 innings while surrendering two runs in a start against Seattle in Game 4 of the ALCS. Glasnow, meanwhile, pitched 1 2/3 scoreless frames in Game 1 of the NLDS before firing off six scoreless in Game 4 of that series. He went on to allow one run in 5 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. Tonight’s game is scheduled for 5pm local time in Los Angeles.
2. Orioles have their manager:
Per reporting last night, it was reported that the Orioles are finalizing a deal to make Guardians associate manager the new manager in Baltimore. Albernaz, who celebrates his 43rd birthday later this week, was promoted to associate manager under Stephen Vogt this year after spending his first season in Cleveland as his bench coach. He previously worked on the Giants’ big league coaching staff and worked in the minor leagues as a manager for the Rays.
Now that he’s poised to get his first big league opportunity, the news takes a highly coveted candidate off the board for other organizations. It also creates a vacancy on the Guardians’ coaching staff that will need to be filled, and comes with some level of intrigue regarding whether or not the Orioles will retain Tony Mansolino as a part of their coaching staff under Albernaz. Mansolino served as the club’s third base coach for years before being promoted to interim manager for the majority of the 2025 season.
3. Managerial, GM vacancies still to be filled:
While the hiring of Albernaz takes another managerial gig off the board, there’s still plenty of hirings left to happen this winter. The Twins are known to have a group of four finalists for their manager job, while the Rockies are known to have at least two finalists in their search for the team’s next head of baseball operations. The Padres are known to have conducted some interviews, including one of future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. The Nationals have interviewed former Orioles manager Brandon Hyde, and there are managerial vacancies in Atlanta and perhaps Colorado as well. Which franchise will next set course for their future with a major hire?
Extension Candidate: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Few players captured more attention throughout the 2025 season than Pete Crow-Armstrong. The young center fielder seemed to launch himself into superstardom in the first half this year, with 20 doubles, 21 homers, and 25 steals through the end of June. That worked out to a .263/.299/.537 slash line, good for a 128 wRC+ with elite defense in center field that made him an early rival for Shohei Ohtani in this year’s MVP race. He followed up that brilliant performance with a far less exciting second half, as he slashed just .228/.274/.412 (86 wRC+) with 17 doubles, ten home runs, and ten steals from July 1 onward.
Crow-Armstrong’s second-half slump was enough to knock him far out of the MVP conversation, but his season-long numbers remain impressive. In 157 games, the 23-year-old hit .247/.287/.481 (109 wRC+) with 35 steals in 43 attempts and an MLB-best +24 Outs Above Average for his work in center field. All of that combined to be worth 6.0 bWAR and 5.4 fWAR, good for 11th and 15th respectively among qualified hitters this year. A five- or six-win season from a 23-year-old who entered the year with less than 150 games of big league experience is hard to view as anything other than an exciting success, and that’s how Jed Hoyer characterized it in his end-of-season press conference shortly after the Cubs’ season came to a close in Game 5 of the NLDS.
“In totality, he had a great year,” Hoyer said of Crow-Armstrong, as relayed by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Hoyer went on to describe Crow-Armstrong as “the best defensive player in baseball” and noted that “when he’s hitting, he’s a superstar.”
All of that rings true based on his performance this season, and as the Cubs head into an offseason where Hoyer acknowledged they hope to have extension conversations with several players, Mooney writes that locking up the team’s star center fielder “figures to be the top priority.”
It won’t be the first time the Cubs and Crow-Armstrong talk about extending his stay in Chicago beyond his years of team control. The sides discussed an extension towards the beginning of the year, before his standout first half, and Crow-Armstrong passed on a deal that reportedly would’ve maxed out around $75MM with a guarantee in the $60MM-$70MM range. Crow-Armstrong, of course, rejected that offer, and while Hoyer expressed an openness to discussing an extension with the youngster’s camp during the season no further progress on the topic was reported throughout the year. Perhaps that’s not surprising, given the unusual year Crow-Armstrong just had.
If the Cubs do intend to reopen extension talks with their budding star, what could a sensible contract look like? After entering 2025 just barely short of a full year of MLB service time, Crow-Armstrong currently remains under control through the end of the 2030 season. At that point, he figures to be ticketed for free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker offers a wide range of comparable players in recent years. Players like Ke’Bryan Hayes, Lawrence Butler, and Ezequiel Tovar had less than two years of MLB service when they signed their deals, like Crow-Armstrong. They all landed extensions in the $60MM to $70MM range that the Cubs reportedly offered prior to this season, but those deals were blown out of the water by the $134.2MM guarantee Jackson Merrill landed in his eight-year extension with the Padres back in April.
Merrill is a year younger than Crow-Armstrong, meaning he signed his deal at the start of his age-22 season while Crow-Armstrong would be signing ahead of his age-24 season this offseason. Both players had five seasons left under club control before free agency, however, and were coming off similarly elite platform seasons; Merril’s 130 wRC+ outshone Crow-Armstrong, but his lesser defense and baserunning left him with a roughly comparable 5.3 fWAR. They also play the same position, making Merrill’s recent deal a logical point of reference for Crow-Armstrong overall.
It’s the second-highest guarantee an outfielder with less than two seasons of MLB service time has received in MLB history, behind the $210MM guarantee the Mariners offered Julio Rodriguez that can max out at $470MM over 17 years if all incentives are reached and options are exercised. Given that Rodriguez was in the midst of posting a 148 wRC+ with 5.7 fWAR and 6.2 bWAR in just 132 games as a 21-year-old rookie when he signed his extension, it’s safe to expect that a deal for Crow-Armstrong would come in closer to Merrill’s contract.
A contract similar to the one signed by Merrill could make some sense, and an eight-year, $140MM contract would beat Merrill’s contract in terms of both guarantee and average annual value. However, the Cubs may not be interested in such a large guarantee for only three additional seasons of team control, while Crow-Armstrong may not want to head into free agency at the tail end of his physical prime as a player who derives as much value from speed and defense.
Then, perhaps, the sides could get together on a longer contract that would buy out more free agent years. An 11-year deal that runs through the 2036 season would keep Crow-Armstrong in town for the rest of his prime and buy out six free agent years. An 11-year, $187MM guarantee would narrowly eclipse Merrill by both guarantee and AAV, while also narrowly beating out the eight-year, $184MM contract the Cubs gave Jason Heyward during the 2015-16 offseason for the largest deal in franchise history.
It would be a risky investment given Crow-Armstrong’s lackluster plate discipline, which left him with the third-highest swinging-strike rate in the majors this year. Given that risk and the fact that Crow-Armstrong is not set to even reach arbitration until next winter, it would be understandable if the Cubs decided to wait and see how the 2026 season played out before committing that sort of money to their center fielder.
On the other hand, the upside in Crow-Armstrong’s profile is obvious and Chicago’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market on free agents in recent years could mean that waiting another year could put Crow-Armstrong out of Chicago’s price range entirely. Rolling the dice on an extension for Crow-Armstrong could be the team’s best bet of securing a long-term, star-caliber talent. Meanwhile, it would be understandable if Crow-Armstrong was motivated to lock in long-term financial security ahead of a 2026-27 offseason where a contentious round of collective bargaining over the sport’s economic future is widely expected.
Lars Nootbaar May Start 2026 Season On Injured List Following Surgery
Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar was among the players that St. Louis brass announced underwent surgery earlier this month, as he went under the knife on October 7 to shave down Haglund’s deformities on both heels. At the time, Nootbaar’s timetable for a return to action was unclear, but today president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom revealed to Matt Pauley of KMOX Sports in a radio interview that Opening Day is neither entirely off the table nor entirely guaranteed for Nootbaar following his surgery. Bloom adds that they don’t intend to rush the rehab process in order to get him back on time for the start of the season, but that if he were to miss time to open the season the absence would be limited.
As far as timelines for offseason surgeries go, Nootbaar’s doesn’t seem too worrisome. It would naturally be less than ideal if he were to miss time to open the 2026 campaign but, with the Cardinals headed into a likely rebuilding phase as it is, the handful of games Nootbaar is at risk of missing at the start of the season are unlikely to be the difference in the club’s postseason chances next year. Given that Nootbaar is coming off a career-worst season where he hit just .234/.325/.361 (96 wRC+) following three consecutive seasons where he posted a wRC+ of 114 or higher, a few extra days missed at the start of the season would be well worth it for the Cardinals if it means that Nootbaar puts his best foot forward as he tries to return to the more robust offensive form he had flashed in previous seasons.
The 28-year-old is under team control with St. Louis for two more seasons before he’s slated to reach free agency during the 2027-28 offseason. For a Cardinals team that might not return to contention until Nootbaar is already a free agent, he’s certainly a logical trade candidate. Today’s news about Nootbaar’s uncertain status for Opening Day might make a trade slightly less likely to come together, but the impact on his market is likely at least relatively negligible.
After all, clubs already knew Nootbaar would be rehabbing from surgery this offseason and his dip in performance last year might have made the Cardinals hesitant to deal him before giving him the opportunity to rebound and improve his stock following his recent surgery. St. Louis has little incentive to risk selling low on Nootbaar given that he could theoretically be dealt at the 2026 trade deadline and still be available to an interested club for two pennant races and eligible for a Qualifying Offer following the 2027 season, should the QO still exist after the next round of collective bargaining negotiations next winter.
Looking at the Cardinals’ current depth chart, the possibility of losing Nootbaar for a few games to open the year shouldn’t be too much of a problem if the rest of the team’s positional corps remains healthy. Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan could all see time in the outfield next year, to say nothing of potential depth options like Nathan Church and Michael Siani behind that primary group. Donovan is generally viewed as more likely to spend time on the infield next year, especially if the club manages to trade Nolan Arenado this winter, but Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese should be able to fill in for Donovan when he plays the outfield.
What Can The Reds Expect From Matt McLain In 2026?
It was a good season for the Reds in 2025, on balance. Hunter Greene replicated his excellent 2024 and cemented himself as one of the game’s top young starters, Andrew Abbott enjoyed a career-year that saw him make his first trip to the All-Star game, and despite winning just 83 games the club managed to squeak into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2013.
With all that being said, however, there are clear flaws with the team as presently constructed and it’s not at all hard to see where the team needs to improve if they hope to return to the playoffs next year for another bite at the apple. The Cincinnati offense disappointed across the board this season, with even star shortstop Elly De La Cruz hitting 11 fewer extra-base hits and swiping 30 fewer bases than last year despite similar on-base numbers.
In a season where virtually every piece of the club’s offensive nucleus fell short of expectations, it seems a bit unfair to single out any one player. Even so, the struggles second baseman Matt McLain faced stand out among the crowd. McLain was one of the most exciting young players in baseball as recently as 2023, when his sensational 89-game rookie season earned him a fifth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2024 season due to injuries and in some regards looked like a shell of his former self this season.
That’s not to say he regressed across the board. McLain’s 28.9% strikeout rate this season was a near perfect match for the 28.5% clip he struck out at back in 2023. His 9.5% walk rate was actually a substantial improvement over the 7.7% rate he posted in his rookie campaign. His defense was also phenomenal as he finished the year with +6 Fielding Run Value, a figure bested by just eight qualified middle infielders in baseball this year. That’s a substantial step up from the +1 FRV McLain offered in his rookie campaign.
Those are all positive (or, in the case of McLain’s strikeout rate, at least neutral) signs relative to 2023. It’s also where the good times come to an end, however. McLain’s power was down substantially by just about every metric this past year. After slugging 16 homers in 89 games as a rookie, he hit 15 across 147 games this year. His doubles also dropped from 23 to 18, while his triples actually dropped from four all the way down to zero. Hitting ten fewer extra-base hits in 174 more plate appearances is a drop in power output that’s nothing short of alarming, and McLain’s paltry .124 ISO put him in the bottom 20 among qualified hitters this year. His barrel rate dropped more than three points from 2023, and his hard-hit rate has dropped nearly two.
That falls short of even some notoriously contact-oriented hitters like Jung Hoo Lee and Jacob Wilson. While those players (not to mention hitters with even less power like Luis Arraez and Nico Hoerner) get away with that minimal power output thanks to elite bat-to-ball skills, but McLain’s lack of improvement in the strikeout department leaves him unable to emulate that brand of hitting. Barring a massive drop in strikeout rate next year, McLain will need to recapture some of that power if he’s going to improve over this year’s paltry 77 wRC+, much less approach the 129 wRC+ he posted in his rookie season.
Just how feasible is that? It’s hard to believe that he’ll get back to that level he flashed in 2023 entirely, because that was buoyed in no small part by a .385 BABIP. A BABIP of .350 is typically viewed as around the upper limit of the sustainable year-to-year range, and McLain’s .292 BABIP this year falls firmly into that more sustainable range. It’s possible it ticks back up in the future, but reversing that more than 90-point drop appears to be little more than a pipe dream. Getting back above league average, however, seems to be a far more reasonable ask, and one that could turn McLain into a key piece of Cincinnati’s core once again.
He’ll need to adjust his approach a bit if he’s going to get there. McLain’s hard-hit rate was only marginally lower than his rookie season in 2025, but he lost more than a quarter of his barrels on a rate basis this season. Some of that can surely be attributed to a stark drop in line drives. While McLain’s grounder rate stayed stagnant at 38.7% between this year and 2023, his line drive rate dropped from a 24.2% clip as a rookie to just 17.2% this year. To put those numbers in context, his line drive rate this year ranked 132nd among 145 qualified hitters, while his 2023 rate would’ve ranked eighth this year among that same group.
Getting back to a more line drive oriented approach could help McLain both recoup some of those lost extra-base hits, and it would also help with his steeply declining BABIP. McLain hit 44.2% of his batted balls in the air this year, a top-30 clip in the majors. That works well for hitters like Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber who have the power to slug 40+ homers on an annual basis, but it’s a much less effective recipe for success for someone with McLain’s profile. He pulled the ball less often than all but 23 of the league’s qualified hitters this year, leaving him with a lot of fly outs and pop ups but little production to show for it.
If McLain can lower his launch angle a bit next year, he could get back to hitting the sweet spot more often than he did this year. That was the secret ingredient that made McLain so effective in 2023, as his 39.6% sweet spot rate ranked in the 94th percentile among all MLB hitters. That dropped to just 34.0% this year, which placed him in the 43rd percentile. The good news for McLain and the Reds is that a change in approach is far easier to correct than a step back in underlying skills, and McLain’s discipline, defense, speed and bat speed all seem to be either right where they were in his rookie year or even better. That makes it relatively easy to imagine him re-emerging as a core piece of a Reds lineup that will need to generate a lot more offense this year if they want to build on their cameo in the playoffs this season.
East Notes: Bichette, Rays, Scott
With Bo Bichette back on the roster as the Blue Jays challenge the Dodgers in the World Series, it didn’t take long for him to be asked about his impending free agency. As noted by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, Bichette generally dismissed the question as something he doesn’t have the time to think about amid a World Series run, though he did acknowledge that his “goal” is to remain with the Blue Jays for the rest of his career.
That’s not exactly new information, as Bichette has long indicated a desire to spend his whole career in a Blue Jays uniform. Bichette has previously spoken of his desire to only play for one team throughout his whole career, and the ability to do so alongside longtime teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after Guerrero landed his own extension earlier this year surely makes the idea of sticking around in Toronto all the more appealing. With that said, there had been no extension talks between Bichette and club brass as recently as April.
Perhaps some discussions have taken place in the intervening months, of course, but with free agency just days away it seems all but certain that Bichette will hit the open market without signing an extension. That doesn’t mean he can’t be re-signed, of course, but the Blue Jays won’t be the only suitor for his services once he’s available to all 30 clubs and it’s unclear if Toronto is willing to add another major contract to the books after signing Guerrero to an extension worth half a billion dollars.
More from MLB’s East divisions…
- The Rays may now be operating under new ownership, but they’re still facing plenty of stadium uncertainty in the wake of the club’s recent failed stadium deal and the damage done to Tropicana Field by Hurricane Milton last year. While it would be impossible to expect a meaningful update on a long-term stadium solution just one month into Patrick Zalupski’s tenure as control person, commissioner Rob Manfred did tell reporters (as relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) prior to Game 2 of the World Series yesterday that the league is “hopeful” that the Trop will be ready for Tampa’s opening homestand, scheduled to begin on April 6. While Manfred seemingly left the door open to the possibility that the stadium won’t be ready for those games, he said that “it certainly is going to be ready very early in the year.” That’s good news for the Rays, seeing as they were forced to play their home games in a minor league ballpark this year as a result of the damage to the Trop.
- Turning towards the National League, Will Sammon of The Athletic writes that Mets youngster Christian Scott is nearing the end of his rehab program as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Scott, 26, made his big league debut last year with a 4.56 ERA in nine starts but hasn’t pitched in an official game at any level since. He entered 2024 as a fringe top-100 prospect, however, and Sammon suggests that the right-hander could be another young arm in the mix for a rotation work with the Mets next year alongside players like Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. With that said, a crowded group of rotation options that is likely to get at least one major addition this winter might make it hard for the righty to find consistent starts without a rash of injuries creating an opportunity.