Pavin Smith Unlikely To Return In 2025 Due To Quad Strain
Pavin Smith is “likely” done for the 2025 season, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters (including Jacob Gurvis of MLB.com) earlier today. Lovullo noted that Smith has not been officially shut down for the season, but after he went on the injured list with a strained left quad yesterday it seems unlikely he’ll be able to get healthy and back up to speed in time to appear before the end of the season.
Smith, 29, appeared in 87 games for the Diamondbacks this season and has slashed .258/.362/.434 with a wRC+ of 122. That’s solid production on paper, but those surface level numbers cover up what was a strange, up-and-down season for the former seventh-overall pick. Smith started the year as one of the hottest hitters in the majors, as he slashed an unbelievable .342/.373/.640 through the end of April. Even during that hot stretch, he was striking out at a hefty 28.1% clip but made up for it by hitting for significant power and floating a massive .488 BABIP.
That batted ball luck was going to run out at some point, however, and his next 48 games saw him hit just .232/.336/.384 in 146 plate appearances. His 13.7% walk rate in that stretch remained quite impressive, but his power largely disappeared and he struck out at an ugly 32.9% clip. It wasn’t long after that when Smith suffered an oblique strain that left him sidelined for the majority of July and much of August. He’s appeared in just 14 games in the back half of Arizona’s schedule, and in those limited appearances he’s hit .195/.244/.268 with a 32.6% strikeout rate in 46 plate appearances.
With such a hot start to the year followed by a lengthy cooldown later in the first half, it would be easy to write off Smith’s early-season performance as a simple flash in the pan. There could certainly be merit to that assessment, but it’s also worth noting that his injury-marred second half left him with little opportunity to make adjustments in order to respond to those struggles he began to have after the calendar flipped to May. In conjunction with Smith’s brilliant partial season in 2024, where he slashed .272/.371/.568 in 97 plate appearances after the All-Star break, it’s anyone’s guess what sort of production the Diamondbacks will be able to get out of Smith next year. It seems likely he could be tasked with sharing time at first base with Tyler Locklear in at least some capacity, though Locklear’s .169/.256/.247 slash line in 23 games for Arizona this year hasn’t exactly inspired confidence to this point.
In the short term, Smith’s at-bats at DH will be handled by Ketel Marte. That’s because, as Lovullo noted to reporters (including Gurvis) this evening, Marte is dealing with what the manager described as “fatigue” in his right forearm. That forearm issue has led the Snakes to play Marte out of the DH spot in each of the past two games rather than play him at his usual position of second base. With Jordan Lawlar now on the roster to get increased reps at the hot corner, perhaps more DH time for Marte down the stretch could mean additional opportunities for Blaze Alexander to remain in the lineup even when Lawlar is playng. Alexander has hit a respectable .234/.331/.441 in 49 games this year while splitting time between second and third base.
Astros Sign Matt Bowman To Minor League Deal
The Astros announced this evening that they’ve signed right-hander Matt Bowman to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Sugar Land. Bowman had been released by the Orioles earlier today, but has now found a new organization to call home for the remainder of the 2025 campaign.
Bowman, 34, made his big league debut in 2016 and spent four seasons with the Cardinals and Reds, posting a 4.02 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 183 games at the big league level before injuries sidelined him for several years. He returned to the majors in 2023 for a three-game stint as a member of the Yankees, and in 2024 he bounced between four clubs before finally settling in as a member of the Orioles in August of last year. He posted a solid 3.45 ERA with a 21.2% strikeout rate in 15 games for Baltimore last year, and after being outrighted off the club’s roster he re-signed on a minor league deal last offseason.
Bowman was briefly added back to the Baltimore’s 40-man roster in March to prevent him from opting out of his deal, but was promptly outrighted to the minors on Opening Day only to be selected onto the roster once again on March 30. He was selected to the roster three more times over the course of 2025 but struggled to a 6.20 ERA in 24 2/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 15.8% in the majors throughout that roller coaster of roster moves. His 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings of work with Triple-A Norfolk wasn’t exactly inspiring, either, though his 21.8% strikeout rate in those outings was certainly an improvement.
Now, Bowman will try to carve out a role for himself in Houston. The right-hander will be eligible to join the Astros in the postseason if the club were to have interest in bringing him onto the 40-man roster because he was able to join the organization prior to September 1, at which point any new additions to the organization would not be eligible for the playoff roster. Of course, it’s a stretch that Bowman would receive much consideration for the club’s playoff roster given that it’s not yet clear whether or not the Astros will even afford him an opportunity on their MLB roster at all this September. Cody Bolton, Jordan Weems, and Tayler Scott are among the other non-roster relief arms in the Astros organization who could vie for playing time if the club finds itself in need of depth during the season’s final month.
Vinny Nittoli Opts Out Of Orioles Deal
Right-hander Vinny Nittoli is opting out of his minor league deal with the Orioles, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. Nittoli will now head into free agency and be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs on a fresh contract.
Nittoli, 34, was a 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2014 and has spent his decade in professional baseball largely as a minor league journeyman. After spending a few years in Seattle’s minor league system, Nittoli departed affiliated ball in 2017 and spent two seasons pitching for the independent American Association before making his return to the minor leagues. Over the course of 12-year professional career, he’s suited up for the Mariners, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Mets, A’s, Orioles, and Brewers at the Triple-A level. In all that time, however, he’s received only scattered playing time in the majors with 15 big league appearances in total.
In that sporadic MLB playing time, Nittoli has pitched to a 2.41 ERA with a 4.30 FIP across 18 2/3 innings of work. Nittoli has struck out just 17.3% of his opponents while walking 6.7%, but those numbers of course come in too small of a sample size to draw any substantial conclusions from. After spending a great deal of time at Triple-A, looking at his results at that level may tell a more complete story. He’s posted a 4.76 ERA at the highest level of the minors in 223 innings across parts of six seasons. With that said, he’s struck out a much more robust 28.3% of his opponents while walking 8.4%.
Those stronger strikeout numbers have been enough to get Nittoli plenty of interest from all of those aforementioned organizations on minor league deals over the years, but this year’s poor results even in the minors have limited his ability to crack a major league roster. In 39 1/3 innings of work between the Triple-A affiliates of the Brewers and Orioles this year, Nittoli has posted a 4.58 ERA, including a ghastly 6.35 in ten appearances in Baltimore’s organization after opting out of the pact he’d spent the first half of the year with Milwaukee on. Now Nittoli has opted out once again and will look to find a job that provides a better path to the majors ahead ahead of September 1, after which time newly-signed players are not eligible to participate in the postseason with their new club. As for the Orioles, they still have arms like Yaramil Hiraldo, Josh Walker, and Elvin Rodriguez on the 40-man roster as depth options for their bullpen over the season’s final month.
Orioles Outright Cody Poteet
The Orioles announced this afternoon that right-hander Cody Poteet has been activated from the 60-day injured list and outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. The club had not previously announced that Poteet was placed on waivers, but he evidently cleared and now will head to the minor leagues if he accepts the assignment.
Poteet, 31, made just one appearance for the Orioles this year where he surrendered five runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings of work while walking two and striking out just one. A fourth-round pick by the Marlins all the way back in 2015, Poteet did not make his big league debut until 2021. He spent two years in Miami as an up-and-down swing man, with a 4.45 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 58 2/3 innings of work. That roughly league-average work (with below average peripherals) on the mound, but a UCL injury limited him in 2022. He signed with the Royals on a minor league deal while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery but returned to free agency following the 2023 season having made just one appearance for Triple-A Omaha that year.
Poteet signed a big league deal with the Yankees prior to the 2024 season, and it was in the Bronx where the right-hander posted the best numbers of his career. Poteet made only five appearances (four starts) for New York last year, but in those 24 1/3 frames he posted a sensational 2.22 ERA. The right-hander’s peripherals (including a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 4.03 FIP) weren’t quite as impressive as those raw results, but he still demonstrated the ability to be a valuable depth starter and swing man for the Yankees. He was tendered a contract for the 2025 campaign by the Yankees and stuck around on the club’s 40-man roster but was traded to the Cubs back in December as the return for Cody Bellinger.
The right-hander entered Spring Training with the Cubs but did not make the club’s roster out of camp after a strong showing from non-roster invitee Brad Keller. Poteet was DFA’d to make room for Keller on the roster and found himself back in the AL East shortly thereafter when he was traded to the Orioles in late March. After Poteet made his aforementioned single appearance for the Orioles on April 20, he was shelved with right shoulder inflammation that has kept him out of action ever since. Poteet did begin a rehab assignment last week and threw two scoreless innings for the Norfolk Tides, and now that he’s been activated from the shelf and outrighted to the minors he’ll continue pitching for the Tides through the end of the year if he decides to remain in the organization.
Of course, that’s not necessarily guaranteed. Poteet was outrighted to the minors by the Marlins previously in his career, meaning that he has the opportunity to reject Baltimore’s assignment in favor of electing free agency. Poteet will remain eligible for a team’s postseason roster if he signs with another organization prior to September 1, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land elsewhere as a depth option for a pitching-hungry club still in the playoff hunt. Of course, with Poteet only built up to one inning so far and minimal work at the big league level this season, the righty might also simply go wherever gives him the best shot of cracking a big league roster in September, whether that’s staying in the Orioles organization or signing a fresh contract elsewhere.
Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In
While a few of this season’s awards don’t appear to be terribly competitive headed into the final month of the season, one race that still appears to be wide open is that for the AL Cy Young award. MLBTR last checked in on the race back in June, at which point Tigers ace Tarik Skubal was viewed as the heavy favorite to capture his second consecutive Cy Young, with nearly 46% of the vote and nearly double second place finisher’s total.
Skubal is still a strong contender for the award, of course, and perhaps even the favorite. Through 26 starts this year, the southpaw has logged 166 innings of 2.28 ERA ball. He’s struck out 33.5% of his opponents with a phenomenal 3.9% walk rate, giving him the best K-BB% in baseball this year. That mix of strikeout stuff and pinpoint command is Skubal’s bread and butter, as his other metrics this year have been closer to average than exceptional. His ground ball rate is a cromulent 40.7% this year, and his 8.7% barrel rate ranks 15th among 30 qualified AL hurlers. Skubal’s last start was an unusual one, as he surrendered six runs in 6 2/3 innings of work but only one of those six runs was considered earned. Even with those five runs not countered against his ledger, he’s posted a 3.05 ERA and 3.55 FIP in the month of August. That performance is strong but not quite on the level of some other contenders.
While Skubal’s numbers haven’t changed too drastically since June, he’s found a rival for his position as the AL’s best lefty strikeout artist in the form of Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The 26-year-old has more or less matched Skubal in virtually every stat. He had 166 1/3 innings of work to Skubal’s aforementioned 166 through 26 starts, though Crochet’s six-innings of two-run ball against the Orioles yesterday pushed his total up to 172 1/3. His 2.40 ERA is within spitting distance of Skubal’s own figure, and his 31.1% strikeout rate is just a couple of points behind. Where he falls more significantly behind Skubal is his walk rate, as he’s allowed free passes at a 6.1% clip.
He makes up for the gap in K-BB% somewhat with stronger batted ball numbers, however. He’s generating grounders at a 48.5% clip, and his 7.2% barrel rate is the sixth-best figure in the AL. For those inclined towards more traditional metrics, Crochet also sports an AL-best 14 wins on his record. Crochet’s 3.19 ERA in August didn’t separate him from Skubal significantly, but his peripherals (including a 2.96 FIP) are significantly better over that span. If he can turn those peripherals into production in September, perhaps that will be enough to separate himself from Skubal.
Of course, Crochet and Skubal aren’t the only two options to consider. Astros right-hander Hunter Brown is in the midst of a breakout season that deserves serious consideration. Through 26 starts, Brown’s 155 2/3 innings of work lag behind the totals of the two lefties, but his numbers are undeniably impressive. He’s posted a 2.37 ERA with a 46.0% ground ball rate and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Brown’s 6.1% barrel rate is the second-best figure in the AL this year, though he’s held back somewhat by his 7.6% walk rate.
When looking at Brown’s recent work, it’s something of a mixed bag. His 1.71 ERA in August is obviously fantastic, but it comes with an asterisk after he allowed four unearned runs in his most recent start. His 22.2% strikeout rate is also far below his typical norms, but his 2.71 FIP is nothing short of excellent. Brown seems to be a step behind both Skubal and Crochet at this point, but it’s easy to imagine him pushing himself more firmly into the conversation with a strong September.
Brown, Skubal, and Crochet seem like the top three players in the race at this point, but there are some other arms who deserve acknowledgment as well. Nathan Eovaldi has a sensational 1.73 ERA in 22 starts this year, but with just 130 innings of work and a rotator cuff strain that’s likely season-ending, it would be a shock if he got more than down-ballot consideration for the award. Jacob deGrom‘s first healthy season in half a decade has been extremely impressive with a 2.79 ERA, but the 37-year-old’s peripherals pale in comparison to the other top starters in the league. Max Fried‘s season with the Yankees started out incredibly impressive, but his 5.33 ERA since the start of July has likely pushed him out of the conversation for the most part.
With just a month left to go in the season, who do you think will come out on top in the AL Cy Young race? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win the 2025 AL Cy Young?
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Tarik Skubal 60% (2,941)
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Garrett Crochet 30% (1,456)
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Someone Else 6% (295)
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Hunter Brown 5% (225)
Total votes: 4,917
The Opener: Sale, Tolle, Tong
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. Sale to return:
The Braves are expected to activate ace lefty Chris Sale from the 60-day IL this weekend. The veteran southpaw has been sidelined since June due to a fracture in his ribcage, but prior to that he had been firmly in the conversation to win a second consecutive NL Cy Young award with a 2.52 ERA, a 2.69 FIP, and a 30.8% strikeout rate. While Atlanta has no hope of making the postseason at this point, Sale’s return to action is important for the lefty on an individual level, given his lost seasons from 2020 to 2022, when he made just 11 total starts due to a variety of injuries. If he can take the ball five times down the stretch, he’ll have reached 20 starts in three consecutive seasons since his days as the workhorse ace of the Red Sox back in 2017. The Braves have available space on their 40-man roster to accommodate Sale, so only an active roster move will be needed to activate him.
2. Tolle to debut:
While the former lefty ace of the Red Sox is set to return from the IL in Atlanta this weekend, fans in Boston are hoping they’ll witness the start of another lefty ace’s career at the same time. That’s because left-hander Payton Tolle is expected to be called up for his MLB debut today. The club’s second-round pick in last year’s draft, Tolle has sprinted through the minors, posting a 3.04 ERA in 20 appearances across three levels. He’s been even better since graduating from High-A, with a 2.36 ERA and a 34.2% strikeout rate in 42 innings of work at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Tolle’s rapid ascent will now culminate in a chance to impact a playoff race in the majors as the Red Sox jockey with the Yankees and Mariners for Wild Card positioning down the stretch. The lefty’s first assignment will be a tough one. He’ll be tasked with taking on Pirates ace Paul Skenes (2.07 ERA) at Fenway Park in a game scheduled for 7:10pm local time.
3. Tong to debut:
Tolle isn’t the only top pitching prospect set to make his MLB debut today. Over in the National League, the Mets are set to welcome right-hander Jonah Tong to the majors when he makes his big league debut against the Marlins this evening. The game is scheduled for 7:10pm local time and will see Tong take on another of the sport’s top young arms in righty Eury Perez (3.44 ERA). In 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Tong has a dazzling 1.43 ERA to go along with an absurd 40.5% strikeout rate. With the Mets holding onto the NL’s final Wild Card spot at the moment, they’ll be banking on the 2022 seventh-rounder continuing his success in the majors.
Poll: NL Rookie Of The Year Check-In
Within the last few years, the Rookie of the Year award has grown to have more meaning than it had in the past. Changes in the most recent collective bargaining agreement allow the award to bestow a full year of MLB service time on the top two finishers, even if they would have otherwise entered the offseason with less than that. Beyond that, any player who was a top-100 prospect on a pair of prominent preseason lists (Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN) can net his club an extra pick by winning the award if he breaks camp with his club or was called up less than two weeks into the season. That’s raised the stakes on the two Rookie of the Year races, but who will ultimately come out on top?
Here’s a look at this year’s candidates in the National League, listen in alphabetical order by last name:
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves
The 24-year-old Baldwin is having a banner rookie season for Atlanta after an injury suffered by Sean Murphy during Spring Training opened up the Opening Day catcher job. Baldwin took the reins and never looked back. Through 96 games, he’s hitting .276/.347/.454 with a wRC+ of 126. He’s smacked 14 homers in 337 plate appearances, but more impressive is Baldwin’s plate discipline. The youngster is striking out just 16% of the time while walking at a solid 8.9% clip. That production has been enough to get the lion’s share of time behind the plate in spite of Murphy’s status as a former All-Star and Gold Glove award winner on a hefty contract. If there’s an issue with Baldwin’s profile, it’s that he’s a merely pedestrian defender behind the plate. Scouts expected him to be no more than average behind the plate, and so far the metrics have played that out as he has -1 Catching Runs this year according to Statcast. Baldwin and Murphy are now splitting the workload between catcher and DH, so Baldwin should see regular at-bats down the stretch. If he wins the award, he’ll net the Braves a PPI pick.
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers
Collins celebrated his 28th birthday last month, making him by far the oldest player on this list. He’s been a game changer for an excellent Brewers club in left field, however, with a .270/.368/.421 (125 wRC+) slash line in 109 games. Collins has chipped in 28 extra-base hits and 15 steals and drawn walks at an excellent 12.3% clip. That penchant for drawing walks fuels an on-base percentage that sits just barely outside the top 20 among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year. Collins’ age and lack of a premium defensive position could hold him back in the eyes of some voters, but the switch-hitter does have one big thing going for him: he’s doing his best work now. Since the All-Star break, Collins has hit .288/.377/.475 with a wRC+ of 139.
Cade Horton, RHP, Cubs
The Cubs’ first rounder in the 2022 draft, Horton came up to fill out the rotation in a pinch back in May and has generally looked the part of a quality big league starter. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP in 93 2/3 innings of work. That’s by far the best ERA among all rookie pitchers with at least 80 innings, and he’s been on the shortlist for the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break with a microscopic 0.49 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 24.8% strikeout rate. Horton’s season-long strikeout rate of just 20.1% isn’t all that impressive, and his relatively limited innings may hurt him with some voters. Even so, the 24-year-old should get plenty of attention with the way he’s pitched in the second half so far, and a big final month could further cement his case. Horton was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the season but wasn’t called up early enough to net the Cubs a pick based on this year’s Rookie of the Year voting (though he could still garner them a pick with a top-3 Cy Young finish before reaching arbitration).
Chad Patrick, RHP, Brewers
Patrick might be overlooked by some voters who could be attracted to the strong second half numbers of Collins and Horton. Even so, he’s a legitimate contender for the award. Patrick’s 105 innings across 21 appearances (20 starts) lead NL rookies. He’s posted a 3.60 ERA with a nearly identical 3.68 FIP while striking out 23.9% of his opponents. Perhaps the biggest flaw in Patrick’s case is that the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A for just over a month. He didn’t pitch in the majors between July 5 and Aug. 19. He’s also worn down as the season has gone on, with a 5.09 ERA and 4.45 FIP in his last seven starts. Patrick will need to turn things around in September if he’s going to make a play for the award, but a strong start to his big league career in April and May could be enough to keep him in the conversation.
Other Options
That aforementioned quartet appear to be the likeliest candidates for the award, but they aren’t the only names to consider. Playing time will be a factor for Miami’s Jakob Marsee, but if the 24-year-old can keep hitting the way he has in 26 games since his Aug. 1 recall (.356/.422/.667, 195 wRC+), his otherworldly performance will get some attention anyway. Teammate Agustin Ramirez leads NL rookies in home runs (18) and plate appearances (463), but he’s posted awful defensive marks behind the plate and is sitting on a .287 on-base percentage (.228/.287/.424 overall). Brewers righty Jacob Misiorowski was the talk of the game after his first few starts, but he spent two weeks on the injured list after being clipped by a comebacker and has been tagged for 13 earned runs in his past 14 1/3 innings (four starts). He’s only at 43 2/3 innings on the season, too, which hurts his candidacy.
Hyeseong Kim has been an above-average hitter for the Dodgers and contributed defensive versatility, but he’s been on the injured list for a month and is unlikely to get enough playing time to merit consideration. Nationals righty Brad Lord is in the midst of a solid season as a swingman, but a 5.47 ERA in August does him no favors. Third basemen Caleb Durbin and Matt Shaw have both had decent enough years but are sure to be overshadowed by their teammates when it comes to balloting.
Who do MLBTR readers think will ultimately come out on top in the NL’s Rookie of the Year balloting? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will win NL Rookie of the Year?
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Drake Baldwin 46% (2,241)
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Cade Horton 26% (1,263)
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Isaac Collins 20% (996)
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Someone Else 7% (360)
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Chad Patrick 1% (59)
Total votes: 4,919
The Opener: Slaten, Chapman, Pitchers’ Duel
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Slaten to return:
The Red Sox are set to welcome right-hander Justin Slaten back from the injured list today. Slaten went down with shoulder inflammation back in May and has been sidelined ever since. Slaten made his big league debut with Boston in 2024 after being plucked from the Rangers in the 2023 Rule 5 draft and has been excellent. The 27-year-old touts a 3.09 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 78 2/3 big league innings. This year, Slaten pitched in 24 games with a 3.47 ERA and 3.09 FIP. While those numbers are a bit higher than last year, he should still be an asset to the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch. Slaten is on the 60-day injured list, but no 40-man roster move will need to be made to accommodate him after Abraham Toro‘s recent DFA opened up a 40-man spot.
2. Chapman’s no-hit streak:
Sticking with the Boston bullpen, closer Aroldis Chapman is arguably having the best season of his 16-year MLB career — despite this being his age-37 campaign. He’s striking out 38.7% of his opponents with a sensational 1.04 ERA and 1.83 FIP across 52 innings of work and has picked up 26 saves. His 7.3% walk rate is considerably better than average for a reliever, and that’s the only way opposing hitters have been able to get on base of late. As noted by Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, Chapman has recorded 35 consecutive outs without allowing a hit. It’s an incredible stretch that dates all the way back to July 26. The Red Sox face the Orioles in the final game of a four-game series today. Chapman has already faced Baltimore three times during this no-hit stretch, including twice during this series.
3. Pitchers’ duel in San Francisco:
The Cubs and Giants are wrapping up a three-game set at Oracle Park later today, and it’ll end with an impressive pitching matchup. Right-hander Logan Webb is set to take the mound for the home team in the midst of an excellent season where he’s pitched to a 3.13 ERA with a spectacular 2.60 FIP. His 166 2/3 innings pitched lead the majors, and he’s striking out a strong 26% of batters faced while issuing walks at just a 5.4% clip. Webb’s opponent will be southpaw Shota Imanaga, who has a sterling 3.03 ERA in 19 starts this season. His 4.33 FIP leaves much to be desired, but he’s looked more like himself in August: 2.33 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 28.1% strikeout rate in his past four starts. This afternoon’s game is scheduled to begin at 12:45pm local time.
Poll: The Rangers And The Waiver Wire
The Rangers decided to add at this year’s trade deadline and acquired several arms to beef up the pitching staff. Merrill Kelly was the headliner, but the team also swung deals for Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton in an effort to make up for somewhat lacking production from the club’s offense. That strategy, unfortunately, hasn’t worked. The Rangers’ position in the standings hasn’t changed much as they’ve remained stuck around .500, as has been the case for most of the year.
With the start of September just a few days away, a Rangers club that has been on the cusp between contending and retooling all season is now faced with one final point of decision-making: Should they stay the course and hope for a white hot September that pushes them into the postseason? Or should they throw in the towel and try to sneak back under the luxury tax after the club’s deadline trades pushed their projected payroll slightly over the edge?
They have the opportunity to do the latter if they put Kelly, Coulombe, Maton, and other veterans on expiring deals through waivers. If those players get claimed, they’ll move on to the claiming team and the Rangers will be off the hook for the final month of their salary. Aside from those players who were added at the trade deadline, other expiring deals like those of Chris Martin, Patrick Corbin, Shawn Armstrong and Hoby Milner could make sense for the team to make available. Even Adolis Garcia, who remains under club control via arbitration for the 2026 season, could make sense to make available on waivers given his status as a potential non-tender candidate.
Doing so might give the team additional financial flexibility for the offseason as they look ahead to 2026. Ownership preferred to remain under the tax threshold and reset its penalty levels this past offseason. Their deadline push was made with the team’s postseason odds around 40-50%. Those odds have plummeted, with FanGraphs giving them a 7.2% chance and PECOTA pegging them at 9.8%.
Texas would avoid paying roughly one-sixth of the full season salary for any player who gets claimed off waivers. That means parting ways with Kelly (who is making $7MM this year) would save the club around $1.2MM. Cheaper players like Maton ($2MM) would only shave a little over $300K off the team payroll if claimed.
Of course, saving that money doesn’t do much for the club if it isn’t enough to put them under the luxury tax, and there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to shed enough money to do so. The team saw with Jon Gray earlier this month that there’s no guarantee a player will be plucked off waivers just because he’s been placed there.
The Rangers’ next most expensive pending free agent is Tyler Mahle, and he’s only just resumed throwing off the mound as he tries to work his way back from a rotator cuff strain. It’s hard to imagine a team placing what’d be a roughly $2.75MM bet that Mahle would not only be able to make it back by season’s end but also return to his prior levels of efficacy. It’s a similar situation with Martin, who has been out since late July with a calf strain and still isn’t on a rehab assignment (though he’d amount to a less costly $916K gamble).
Looking beyond the financial aspect of Texas’s decision, it’s worth considering the club’s position in the standings. The 67-67 Rangers have gone just 10-14 since the trade deadline and have lost 12 of their last 20 games. They’ll need a winning percentage a lot better than .400 in September if they’re going to have any hope of making the postseason. Still, a playoff berth isn’t entirely out of the question. Texas is currently 4.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, which is held by the Mariners. They’re six games back of the Yankees in the second AL Wild Card spot as well as the Astros for the AL West title. They still play Houston six times and also have three-game sets with the Brewers and Mets. Their other 16 games are against teams with losing records.
Those six games against the Astros in September give the Rangers more control over their destiny than most clubs have by this point on the calendar. Perhaps that’s reason enough to stay the course. After all, it would be disappointing for the organization if a rare healthy season from Jacob deGrom went to waste.
On the other hand, the club’s core of players is facing some health challenges. Evan Carter, Marcus Semien and Nathan Eovaldi have all been shelved with what are very likely season-ending injuries in recent days. The loss of Martin in the bullpen has also been a real blow, and it’s unclear if he’ll make it back to the field before the end of the season.
How do MLBTR readers think the Rangers should handle their situation? Should they place a handful of short-term veterans on waivers to try to duck under the tax line and save money for another run in 2026, or would it be best to keep the team together and try to win this year despite dwindling playoff odds and mounting injury concerns? Have your say in the poll below:
Should the Rangers put expiring contracts on waivers?
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Yes, waive expiring contracts and try to save money for 2026. 71% (1,540)
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No, keep the team together and try to win this year. 29% (618)
Total votes: 2,158
The Opener: Waiver Activity, Priester, Cherington
Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:
1. Waiver activity incoming:
It’s become common in recent years for teams that have fallen out of the playoff race to place veteran players (especially impending free agents) on outright waivers late in the year, offering them up to possible contenders who would like to claim them. That process is typically done before September 1 to allow players claimed off waivers to participate in the postseason with their new club. With the start of September just a few days away, activity has already started to pick up. The Pirates designated veteran lefty Andrew Heaney for assignment yesterday, and Guardians first baseman Carlos Santana is on outright waivers at the moment. There’s a number of other players who could feasibly be offered up on waivers as soon as today if their club decides they’re too far out of the race and/or if they simply want to shed some payroll with an eye toward the offseason. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at a handful of players who could fit this bill last week in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
2. Can Quinn Priester and the Brewers extend their streak?
Milwaukee’s April acquisition of right-hander Quinn Priester from the Red Sox has been pivotal to their 2025 success. The right-hander’s 3.44 ERA and 4.37 FIP are both solid enough figures, but what really jumps off the page is the team’s success when he takes the ball. The Brewers haven’t lost a game where Priester took the mound since May 24. Since then, the twice-traded former top prospect has gone 10-0 in 15 starts. All five of his no-decisions in that span have ended in victory for the team. It’s a remarkable three-month stretch, even though his 3.01 ERA and 4.20 FIP don’t suggest quite that level of dominance. Today, the Brewers will go for a 16th consecutive win with Priester on the mound against Ryne Nelson (3.63 ERA) and the Diamondbacks.
3. Ben Cherington joins the MLBTR Podcast:
The latest episode of the MLBTR Podcast is available today, and it features Pirates GM Ben Cherington as a special guest. In the episode, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald chats with Cherington about some of the challenges of being a small-market GM, the team’s conversations over Paul Skenes with the first pick of the 2023 draft, and the fact that Pittsburgh has not signed any free agents to multi-year deals during Cherington’s time at the helm. Today’s podcast is available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts, and it will also be published here on MLBTR later this morning.