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Mets Hoping To Re-Sign Adam Ottavino

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As the Mets look to rebuild their bullpen, the team is hoping to bring back veteran Adam Ottavino, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma adds that Ottavino is thought to be seeking a multi-year deal, while the Mets are looking to keep it to a one-year guarantee.

Ottavino, 37, was a terrific setup man in Queens last year, tossing 65 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA relief work. He halved his walk rate from a year earlier in Boston, dropping from 12.7% to post a 6.2% rate in 2023 while still maintaining a strong 30.6% strikeout rate. He also posted a 51.9% ground-ball rate, his best figure since 2016.

It was a bounce back year for the Brooklyn-native, who’d struggled in his previous two campaigns. Signed to a three-year, $27MM deal by the Yankees in 2019 after a number years of quality relief work in Colorado, Ottavino was dominant in his first season in the Bronx, pitching to a 1.90 ERA in 66 1/3 innings. He took a major step back a year later, winding up with a 5.89 ERA in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. That prompted the Yankees to flip him to the rival Red Sox, and while there was some improvement, his 4.21 ERA in 62 innings was still well short of his best.

That allowed the Mets to sign him to a modest $4MM guarantee for 2022, and he’ll surely be seeking a significant raise on that figure this winter. As Puma notes, the Mets believe Ottavino enjoys pitching in his hometown, but it’s unclear if that’d be enough for him to forgo a possible multi-year deal elsewhere if the Mets are only willing to offer him a one-year deal.

The Mets are rebuilding their bullpen after the departures of Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens, Trevor May and Joely Rodriguez to free agency. They’ve already re-signed Edwin Diaz to record-breaking contract, while they’ve claimed Stephen Ridings from the Yankees and acquired Jeff Brigham and Elieser Hernandez from the Marlins. There’s still work to do though, particularly in the high-leverage spots so the Mets have plenty of motivation to try and bring back Ottavino.

Just about any contending club could do with a bullpen arm like Ottavino, so the veteran should have plenty of interest. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $14MM guarantee, and the likes of the Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Braves, Giants and Blue Jays could have interest among many others.

Orioles Seeking Multiple Veteran Starting Pitchers

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The Orioles are expected to be busy this winter, as they look to add to a young roster that is showing signs of life after a lengthy rebuild. Left-handed hitting and pitching is top of the list for Baltimore, and Roch Kubatko of MASN notes that the Orioles want “multiple veteran starting pitchers”.

It’s already been reported that the Orioles aren’t expected to do business with the top tier of free agents, ruling them out of the likes of Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom. Instead, they could be aggressive in going after a couple of second and third tier starters to supplement the current crop of pitchers.

As things stand, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth are four starting options on the roster. Kremer worked to a 3.23 ERA through 21 starts, and while a low BABIP helped him out, there’s enough to suggest he’ll get a chance in the rotation again. Voth is arbitration eligible for the first time and projected to make a modest $2MM salary in 2023. He had a 3.04 ERA in 83 innings after coming over from Washington, and also figures to be part of the rotation.

The other clear option on the roster currently is Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore’s top pitching prospect. He’s yet to make an appearance in the big leagues, but Kubatko is predicting him to make their opening day rotation. The just-turned 23-year-old threw 69 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year, punching out batters 35.8% of the time against a 7.7% walk rate to post a 2.20 ERA.

Should Kremer, Voth and Rodriguez take three spots in the opening day rotation, that’d leave Wells and Bradish as depth options (and both have minor league options) and two spots open for external additions. John Means is the other internal name to consider, but he had Tommy John surgery in April and it’s not clear when he could feature in 2023. So who could the Orioles be in play for?

With a right-handed-heavy provisional rotation, it’d make sense for them to pursue a lefty option. Carlos Rodon is the top option available there, but he falls into the top tier that it seems the Orioles are reluctant to shop in, so instead they could look to add Jose Quintana, a veteran who enjoyed a terrific bounce back season with the Pirates and Cardinals, and would add valuable leadership to a young Baltimore clubhouse. Sean Manaea struggled with the Padres in 2022 but he’d been a reliable arm in Oakland prior to that.

Elsewhere, Chris Bassitt and Jameson Taillon represent solid right-handed options. Both were reliable mid-rotation arms for the Mets and Yankees respectively, and would solidify the rotation. Bassitt turned down a qualifying offer, so the Orioles would have to sacrifice their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft should they go down that route.

Yomiuri Giants Showing Interest In Tyler Beede

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The Yomiuri Giants of the Nippon Professional Baseball league are showing interest in adding right-handed pitcher Tyler Beede for the upcoming season, according to Hochi News (h/t Sung Min Kim). Beede was released by the Pirates last month after spending the 2022 campaign with them and San Francisco.

Beede, 29, was drafted 14th overall by the Giants back in 2014, but never managed to live up to the first round pedigree over four years in the big leagues. Across 187 innings between the Giants and Pirates, Beede pitched to a 5.34 ERA, averaging a 19.1% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. Most of those innings were logged in the 2019 season, when Beede pitched 117 innings of 5.08 ERA ball largely out of the Giants’ rotation.

Tommy John surgery ruled him out of the shortened 2020 season, and a significant chunk of the 2021 campaign as well. The Giants cut ties with him after a handful of relief appearances this year, and he was picked up by the rebuilding Pirates. The change of scenery didn’t bring about a change of results though, as Beede worked to a 5.23 ERA in 51 2/3 innings. He also saw his strikeout rate drop to 14.8% while putting up a 9.7% walk rate.

Pittsburgh designated Beede for assignment towards the end of the season and he became a free agent in October.

The report also adds that Yomiuri are looking to sign former Royals and Blue Jays pitcher Foster Griffin as well as Beede. Griffin was also drafted in the first round in 2014 (28th by the Royals) has made just a handful of appearances across two years in the big leagues, tossing eight innings of 6.75 ERA ball for the Royals and Blue Jays. The left-hander was much better at Triple-A, where he worked to a 2.10 ERA across 51 1/3 innings of relief work.

Rays Interested In Sean Murphy

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The Rays are one of a number of teams showing trade interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The line of suitors for Murphy is expected to be long, and already includes the Red Sox and White Sox, while a host of other teams including the Cardinals, Astros and Yankees could feasibly be interested. It’s also worth noting that the Guardians discussed a Murphy deal in the summer, while Dennis Lin of The Athletic adds that the Padres also pursued Murphy during the season, and both of those teams could conceivably circle back to restart those trade discussions.

Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headline a thin free agent catching class, so Murphy represents an attractive alternative on the trade market for catcher-hungry teams this winter. The 28-year-old is under club control for three more seasons, and Matt Swartz of MLBTR pegged him for a $3.5MM salary in arbitration. While the prospect haul to acquire him will be significant, that salary is an incredibly affordable rate for a player who was worth 5.1 fWAR last season, and has firmly established himself as one of the best catchers in the game.

The Rays tendered contracts to Christian Bethancourt ($1.6MM projection) and Francisco Mejia ($2.2MM) so they do have catching options on the roster, but neither are clear starters. Bethancourt came over to the Rays from Oakland last summer and posted a 1.9 fWAR season with a 101 wRC+ in his first big league campaign since 2017. Mejia saw his BB and K rate go in the wrong directions on the way to a .242/.264/.381 line in 93 games.

Murphy would be a clear upgrade on either. He hit 18 home runs on a .250/.332/.426 line in 2022, good for a 122 wRC+ or 22% above league average. He also cut back on his strikeouts, shaving off five percent from his career mark which tended to hover around 25%. Behind the plate Murphy ranked sixth in baseball for Statcast’s Catcher Framing Runs, and threw out roughly a third of runners attempting stolen bases on him. He also won a Gold Glove in 2021.

Tampa Bay’s farm system ranked 12th in the game by Baseball America during the middle of the 2022 season, and featured five of the top-100 prospects in the game – Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Curtis Mead, Jonathan Aranda and Carson Williams, so there’s certainly the young talent there to get a deal done.

It’s not clear how the Rays’ catching depth chart would shape up were a Murphy trade to materialize. They could look to sell high on Bethancourt on the back of his strong 2022 campaign and operate a Murphy-Mejia tandem behind the plate. Given Murphy has caught 119 and 116 games the past two years, it seems unlikely they’d carry three catchers. Of course, after trading Ji-Man Choi to Pittsburgh, they could opt to utilize Mejia as a bench bat/first-base option, although they’d certainly be looking to see a bounce back from him offensively in that scenario.

Mets Considering Justin Verlander

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TODAY: Verlander and the Mets spoke together in a Zoom meeting last week, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

NOVEMBER 19: The Mets are hopeful of re-signing Jacob deGrom, but if they fail in that pursuit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has emerged as a “prominent possibility” for the team, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Puma cites a source that confirms the Mets are indeed considering the former Astros ace.

deGrom is still every chance to stay in New York of course, and the Mets already believe they are his preferred team, but it certainly shows the Mets’ intention to again be active at the top of the starting pitching market, be that deGrom or not.

Verlander, 39, showed no signs of age in 2022, making one of the more remarkable returns from Tommy John surgery to toss 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball for Houston, win the Cy Young award and take home a World Series ring.  Though his strikeout rate dipped below 30% for the first time since joining Houston (down to 27.85), his fastball velocity remained in tact (and actually improved on his last full season), and he accounted for the dip in strikeouts by posting the equal-best walk rate of his lengthy career (4.4%).

It’s a stunning turnaround for a pitcher that threw just six innings between 2020-21, and sets himself up nicely to add to his already illustrious career. He’s already got three Cy Young awards, one MVP, two World Series titles and is now 56 wins away from the 300-win milestone. That last one may seem like a stretch, but Verlander has averaged 18.33 wins a season over his last three full seasons, so it’s certainly not out of the question if he bags a three-year deal. It’s likely Verlander will seek deals from teams that give him the best chance to win, and a return to the Astros remains a strong possibility, while teams such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies could join the Mets in the race for his signature.

It speaks to the quality of Verlander’s output even as he’s aged that MLBTR recently predicted he’d take home a three-year, $120MM deal, even though he’ll turn 40 in February. While the performance remains elite, the thought of paying a pitcher $40MM into his age-42 season must give some owner’s pause though. Instead, perhaps the Mets might bump up Verlander’s AAV beyond the $43.3MM record that Max Scherzer takes home, and keep it to a more manageable two-year deal.

In any event, it shows the Mets are set to be aggressive in adding a frontline starter to partner Scherzer in 2023. Of course, deGrom and Verlander aren’t the only options either, and the Mets could be in on Carlos Rodon and Kodai Senga as well to bolster their light rotation stocks. Currently Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are slated to start 2023, while David Peterson and Tylor Megill could also have roles at the back of the rotation, depending on how New York’s off-season unfolds.

Latest On Orioles’ Off-Season Plans

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As Baltimore enters the off-season on the heels of their best season since 2016, the areas they’ll be looking to upgrade in are becoming clearer. Roch Kubatko of MASN writes that Baltimore is already active in the starting pitching market, while left-handed hitting is their focus on the offensive side of things.

Kubatko reports that Baltimore is already talking to multiple representatives of free agent pitchers, but notes that they aren’t likely to be spending at the top of the starting pitching market. Instead, that could mean targeting the numerous second tier arms available including the likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and more.

Currently, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Kyle Bradish are penciled into the Orioles’ rotation but none are necessarily locks. Kremer and Voth were the only two to post sub-4 ERAs last season, but they both benefited a bit from a low opponent BABIP and a high strand rate. In any event, some combination of those four and one or two outside additions could form Baltimore’s rotation to start the 2023. John Means would also figure to be a part of the rotation, but it’s unclear when he’ll return from April Tommy John surgery.

That group would lack a clear ace, but the team does have top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez on the cusp of the majors, and he could feature on opening day, or at least early in the season. While a young pitcher is far from a sure thing – even one as impressive as Rodriguez – the Orioles are certainly hoping he can blossom into a frontline starter just as their contention window begins to open. DL Hall struggled in a handful of relief options this year, but he’s the fourth best prospect according to Baseball America and could well be a rotation option in 2023 as well.

On the hitting side of things, Kubatko’s report says the Orioles will target corner outfield, first base and designated hitter as areas to upgrade, with a specific focus on left-handed hitters. He speculates that Michael Brantley, the recently non-tendered former NL MVP Cody Bellinger, or Brandon Belt could be options there. Indeed, there’s a number of candidates that fit the bill, and the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Josh Bell and Michael Conforto could also make sense for Baltimore.

The Orioles currently have Anthony Santander and Austin Hays penciled into the corner spots, with Ryan Mountcastle at first base. All three have been solid contributors for the Orioles, but for a team that’s looking to take the next towards contention, it wouldn’t hurt to see that group upgraded or reshuffled to make room for an outside addition, particularly given the team has no locked in DH for 2023. Santander, for instance, is projected to make $7.5MM in arbitration and not likely to lose much playing time, but could see more time at DH given his limited defensive appeal with a new corner outfielder coming. Similarly, Mountcastle could spend more time at DH if the team brings in a new first baseman.

Mets Believe Jacob deGrom Wants To Stay

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Jacob deGrom is expected to have many suitors this winter, but according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the veteran right-hander prefers to stay in Queens. While any deal would require a significant investment, Puma writes that provided there’s not a major discrepancy between offers, deGrom would rather re-sign in New York.

deGrom opted out of his contract at the end of the season, and his free agency will be a fascinating one. The 34-year-old is unquestionably one of the most talented pitchers in the game and deserves to be paid accordingly, but his age and injury history will make teams leery of a long term commitment. According to Puma, the Mets are steering clear of a four or five year commitment, instead preferring to give deGrom a shorter contract that could include option years based on the pitcher meeting certain incentives.

The long term concerns over deGrom are justified, he didn’t pitch at all between July 7, 2021 and August 2, 2022 due to multiple injury problems. Upon returning, he was his usual dominant self, striking out a staggering 42.7% of batters against a 3.4% walk rate on the way to a 3.08 ERA over 11 starts. In fact, whenever healthy he’s been an unbelievably dominant pitcher, pitching to a career 2.59 ERA over 209 starts.

It’s a huge risk/reward free agency given the enormous AAV deGrom will command, but a host of big-market contending clubs will be interested. Puma notes that deGrom places a high value on winning, and believes the Mets are in a position to contend for World Series titles regularly, aiding their case. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $135MM deal for deGrom, which would give him a record AAV of $45MM, just eclipsing the $43.33MM AAV Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.

That sort of commitment would take the Mets’ payroll close to the estimated $282MM mark from this season (per RosterResource), and with other holes in their rotation and bullpen particularly it seems likely their payroll will push closer to $300MM in 2023. The Mets currently have Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Tylor Megill pencilled in as rotation options, so they’ll almost certainly be in the market for multiple starters this winter, even after a possible deGrom signing.

Hanshin Tigers Close To Signing Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse

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The Hanshin Tigers of the Nippon Professional League are close to signing former MLB players Jeremy Beasley and Sheldon Neuse, as well as former big league prospects Brian Keller and Johan Mieses, according to Yahoo Japan.  Meanwhile, the Tigers have renewed former Tiger, Angel and Pirate Kyle Keller’s contract for around $1.5MM, and the deal contains an additional $300K in possible incentives.

Beasley, 27 tomorrow, was recently released by the Pirates, but last pitched in the majors for the Blue Jays. He had a 4.80 ERA in nine relief appearances spanning 15 innings, and owns a career 5.84 ERA across 24 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks in the past three seasons. He’s shown the ability to punch out major league hitters, striking out batters at a 29% clip, although that comes with a 12.3% walk rate.

Neuse was a second round pick for the Nationals back in 2016, but made his way to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle deal a year later. Across three seasons with the Athletics and Dodgers, Neuse owns a .212/.262/.296 batting line with seven home runs in 420 plate appearances. He’s primarily spent time at second and third base, but has also logged time at first base, shortstop and both corner outfield positions.

Brian Keller was drafted in the 39th round of the 2016 draft by the Yankees, and made it as high as Triple-A with them. He was claimed off waivers ahead of the past season by the Red Sox, and spent the last year at their Triple-A affiliate. There, Keller pitched 113 innings of 3.27 ERA ball, making 20 starts and 11 relief appearances. He struck out a little over a quarter of the batters he faced, but walked batters just over ten percent of the time.

Mieses, 27, has bounced around the minor leagues a bit, spending time with the Dodgers and Cardinals before joining the Red Sox in 2021. The outfielder spent the past year at Triple-A, slashing an impressive .271/.387/.537 with 12 home runs across 60 games. All of those appearances came in right field or as the DH, although he has appeared at the other two outfield spots in previous seasons.

Kyle Keller, 29, spent the past season with Hanshin after being released by the Pirates at the end of the 2021 season. He turned in a 2.72 ERA in 49 2/3 innings with 64 strikeouts and just 12 walks. He struggled during his time in the big leagues, pitching to a 5.83 ERA across 46 1/3 innings for the Marlins, Angels and Pirates, but he seems to have found success in Japan so it’s not surprising to see him stick around for another season.

Note: A prior version of this post incorrectly stated Keller’s salary as approximately $1.3MM. MLBTR regrets the error.

Rays, Royals Linked With Dominic Smith

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The Rays and Royals “could have interest”in free agent slugger Dominic Smith, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. Smith was recently non-tendered by the Mets after a disappointing campaign in 2022.

Two years ago such a move would have been unfathomable after Smith slashed .316/.377/.616 with ten home runs in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, earning down-ballot NL MVP votes for his efforts. However, it’s been a tough slide for the 27-year-old who’s been worth a combined -1.1 fWAR in the two seasons since.

The beginning of that slide came last year, when Smith played through a partially torn labrum in his shoulder and hit just .244/.304/.363 with 11 home runs. His struggles continued into 2022 as he battled for regular playing time, he ended up splitting time between Triple-A and the big leagues. With the Mets, he’d finish up hitting .194/.276/.286 without a single home run, good for a wRC+ of just 67. He went a lot better at Triple-A, slashing .284/.367/.472 with ten home runs in 54 games.

The Mets’ decision to non-tender him drew to a close and underwhelming time in Queens for a player who was drafted 11th overall in 2013 and regularly featured on top-100 prospect lists. His combined 150 wRC+ over the 2019 and 2020 campaigns showed Smith had the talent to excel at the highest level, but emergence of Pete Alonso blocked Smith at first base and he had to spend a fair bit of time in the outfield, where he graded out poorly.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged Smith for a $4MM salary in arbitration, so given his age, talent and low-cost it’s not surprising to see a couple of smaller market teams linked to him. The severe drop in power since his shoulder problems is a big concern, but he had a strong line at Triple-A and it’s possible he’d benefit from the regular playing time he often found hard to come by in New York.

For the Rays, the need at first base is obvious after they traded Ji-Man Choi to the Pirates early in the off-season. Smith could take over as Tampa Bay’s everyday first baseman, while filling in in the outfield and at designated hitter when needed.

It’s less obvious in Kansas City, where the emergence of rookie Vinnie Pasquantino at first base makes the addition of another left handed slugger less important. Of course, the Royals don’t currently have a clear DH option, and Smith could well spend time there while spelling Pasquantino at first base from time-to-time, but they do also have left handed hitter Ryan O’Hearn, and Salvador Perez will likely spend time at the DH spot moving forward, so there’s not a clear need for a hitter like Smith.

There’s no guarantee Smith would perform like a starter for either team, even if they’re willing to offer him regular playing time. However, there’s plenty of upside for the acquiring team, which would also control him via arbitration for the 2024 season, while the likely insignificant financial cost would make parting ways a bit more palatable if Smith were to continue his struggles to begin the season.

Twins Acquire Kyle Farmer

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The Reds and Twins agreed on a Friday evening trade sending infielder Kyle Farmer from Cincinnati to Minnesota. The Reds landed right-hander Casey Legumina in return. Farmer is second year arbitration-eligible, and is projected to make $5.9MM, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ predictions.

Farmer, 32, turned in a solid, if unspectacular, season for the Reds, batting .255/.315/.386 with 14 home runs. That was good for a wRC+ of 90, or ten percent worse than league average. He split time between short (98 games) and third base (36 games), grading out better at third where he was worth two Outs Above Average, against -3 at shortstop.

Originally drafted as a catcher in the eighth round of the 2013 draft by the Dodgers, Farmer made his debut 2017 with L.A. He’d go on to make 97 plate appearances over the next two seasons, working mostly at catcher and third base, before going to the Reds as part of a blockbuster deal involving Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood.

The Reds used him in 15 games at catcher in 2019, but he mostly bounced around the infield positions and that wound up being the last of his time behind the plate. He’d spent the next couple of seasons as a utility infielder before winning their starting shortstop job for 2021. While he turned in a .263/.316/.416 line with 16 home runs that year, he did play some above-average defense, earning six Outs Above Average.

While Farmer’s numbers have never really stood out, he’s generally been a sound contributor and has been worth 3.3 fWAR across 292 games over the past couple of seasons. He can be controlled via arbitration for two more seasons, so he won’t reach free agency until after the 2024 campaign.

It’s the second major trade of the day for the Twins, after they shipped out Gio Urshela and his projected $9.2MM salary. Urshela was a bit more valuable for the Twins last year (2.4 fWAR), but Farmer offers a saving of around $3MM, and greater positional flexibility. It’s entirely possible Farmer returns to a utility role in Minnesota. With Urshela out the door, the Twins could well go with Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez at the corners, with Jorge Polanco at second. That’d mean either Farmer or an external addition at shortstop, but regardless, the arrival of Farmer gives them a bit more flexibility there.

Legumina started 2022 at High-A but spent much of the season at Double-A. He struggled as a starter, making 16 starts this year with a 5.23 ERA, striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings. As a result of his struggles, the Twins moved him to the bullpen and he immediately stood out. There, the 25-year-old threw 22 1/3 innings of 3.57 ERA, with his strikeouts rising to 12.7 per nine innings. Legumina has a four pitch mix, combining a mid-90s fastball with a slider, changeup and curveball.

The eighth round draft pick from 2019 was added to the Twins 40-man roster a few days ago ahead of the Rule 5 draft protection deadline, so he’ll take a spot on the Reds 40-man moving forward as well.

Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of the Athletic first reported the Reds and Twins were in agreement on a trade sending Farmer to Minnesota. C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic was first to report Cincinnati would receive Legumina in return.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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