Blue Jays Notes: Deadline, Vlad, Horwitz
The Blue Jays enter the summer as one of the most fascinating teams to monitor ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Sitting with a disappointing 29-32 record that has them in the AL East cellar, Toronto could upend the trade market if names like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and others eventually are made available to contending teams. They’ve not yet reached the point where that’s under consideration, however. GM Ross Atkins recently went on record to quash such rumblings, stating that it “doesn’t make any sense” for the Jays to consider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero.
There’s some logic behind that sentiment, to be sure. The Jays may be buried with a 14-game deficit in the division, but they’re also only four games back of the third AL Wild Card spot at the moment. That’s despite the fact that key bats like Bichette, Guerrero, George Springer and offseason signee Justin Turner have underperformed. (Turner had a blistering April but fell into perhaps the worst slump of his career in May.) It hasn’t manifested yet, but the talent is certainly there for the Jays’ offense to go on a run and surge back into the playoff picture.
Any fans hoping for a proactive trade to boost the offense or an early waving of the white flag appear to be in for a letdown, however. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Jays aren’t planning to make any firm calls on their deadline approach until after the All-Star break.
Some could read that as an indication that if the Jays’ standing in the Wild Card race dramatically falls off, perhaps they’ll reconsider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero. While there are few absolutes in the game — the Nationals famously traded Juan Soto less than two months after GM Mike Rizzo publicly proclaimed he would not do so, for instance — the overwhelming majority of instances where an executive goes on record to publicly downplay such a possibility tend to play out just as the GM or president in question indicates. That said, with Jansen, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier and others all signed/controlled only through this season or next, the Jays would still have plenty of attractive trade chips if they do end up as sellers.
That All-Star break target for a final call gives the current roster about six weeks to right the ship and prove that there is indeed a playoff-caliber club here — as was the general expectation heading into the season. The Jays are already getting creative in ways to change up their defensive alignment in an effort to get more bats in the lineup, giving Guerrero some starts at third base for the first time since 2019. It’s not an everyday arrangement, but manager John Schneider has suggested Guerrero could play there every five or six games or so, giving Toronto an avenue to have Guerrero and Justin Turner at the corners with both Jansen and Alejandro Kirk in the lineup (one at DH, the other at catcher).
Some may wonder why the Jays don’t simply play Turner at third base with more regularity, given that it’s been his primary position in an excellent big league career. But the 39-year-old Turner has made 11 starts at the hot corner between Boston and Toronto over the past two seasons and committed a glaring five errors in that time. While Guerrero isn’t going to provide plus defense himself, it seems the Jays prefer him to Turner from a defensive standpoint. Turner hasn’t played third base for the Jays since May 7.
Moving Guerrero to third base on occasion isn’t the only defensive shuffle that could be on the horizon, though. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith points out that Toronto has begun getting first baseman Spencer Horwitz reps at second base down in Triple-A and could soon look to him as a second base option at the big league level. Horwitz has now made 11 starts and tallied 87 innings at the position. It’s not an overwhelming amount of experience, but with Horwitz boasting an outrageous .332/.455/.510 slash in 255 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Jays are understandably seeking more ways to get him into the lineup.
The added flexibility will give Schneider some more ways to creatively construct his lineup. The ostensibly looming promotion of Horwitz will require Toronto to jettison one position player from the roster, and Toronto has a number of underperforming options to consider. Daniel Vogelbach has been limited to DH against right-handed pitching and managed only a .203/.282/.328 slash on the season. The aforementioned Kiermaier is hitting only .202/.254/.303, though he remains an elite outfield defender. Cavan Biggio‘s .200/.323/.293 marks his fourth straight year of middling results at the dish.
However the Jays choose to proceed, getting Horwitz onto the big league roster in the near future seems prudent, particularly with Guerrero and Bichette beginning to turn things around at the plate. Guerrero entered today’s game hitting .356/.433/.477 over his past 150 plate appearances and has already launched a three-run homer. Bichette’s slow start lasted longer, but he entered play Thursday with a .303/.324/.470 batting line over his past 16 games (68 plate appearances).
Rockies Recall Greg Jones For MLB Debut
2:00pm: The Rockies have now made the official announcement, recalling Jones and Toglia while placing both Bryant and Bouchard on the 10-day IL. Bryant’s ailment is listed as a left rib contusion while Bouchard’s is a right ankle sprain.
1:08pm: The Rockies are set to recall infielder/outfielder Greg Jones from Triple-A Albuquerque for what’ll be his major league debut, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Jones is already with the club in St. Louis, and the Rockies appear set to place not only Kris Bryant (as reported yesterday) but also fellow outfielder Sean Bouchard on the injured list. Harding notes that Bouchard, who exited last night’s game with an apparent foot or ankle injury after running out a sacrifice bunt (video link), was on crutches in the clubhouse prior to the game.
Acquired from the Rays in a spring training trade sending pitching prospect Joe Rock to Tampa Bay, the 26-year-old Jones was the No. 22 overall pick in the 2019 draft. After impressing with a 2019 run in Low-A and a 2021 run in High-A, his bat stalled out in Double-A and Triple-A, however, and his prospect stock tumbled accordingly. Jones had a rebound last year when he slashed .278/.344/.467 in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting (101 wRC+), which was enough to pique Colorado’s interest and bring about that offseason swap.
While Jones spent about a month on the injured list this season, he’s gotten into 20 Triple-A games and taken 89 plate appearances, batting .240/.360/.387 with a hefty 12.4% walk rate against an also sizable 28.1% strikeout rate. Jones has popped two home runs and, despite his limited time on the field, already swiped 15 bases in 16 attempts. He’s played both shortstop and center field in Albuquerque this year, spending more time at the latter of the two.
Strikeouts have been an issue for Jones throughout his minor league tenure, but scouting reports have credited him as a 70- or even 80-grade runner with a plus arm and huge athleticism. Injuries have regularly kept him off the field though, and paired with the lost minor league season in 2020, Jones has just 293 professional games despite being drafted nearly five years ago.
Those roadblocks in his development have left him rougher around the edges than most 26-year-old minor leaguers, but there’s a clear collection of impressive tools in his skill set if he can eventually hone his bat-to-ball skills with more reps. Doing so at the game’s top level will be a challenge in and of itself, but with Bouchard and Bryant likely headed to the IL alongside outfielders Nolan Jones and Jordan Beck, the Rockies aren’t exactly teeming with outfield options. Michael Toglia is already expected to take Bryant’s spot on the big league club, and Jones is the only other outfielder on Colorado’s 40-man roster.
Diamondbacks Claim Thyago Vieira
The D-backs claimed hard-throwing righty Thyago Vieira off waivers from the Orioles, who’d previously designated him for assignment, per an announcement out of Baltimore. The Diamondbacks already have two open spots on the 40-man roster and thus will only need to open a 26-man roster spot for the out-of-options Vieira.
Vieira isn’t the only bullpen move coming for the Snakes, however. Ari Alexander of KPRC-2 reports that they’re calling lefty Joe Jacques up from Triple-A Reno for what’ll be the southpaw’s team debut. Arizona claimed Jacques off waivers from Boston back in April.
The 30-year-old Vieira made just one appearance for the O’s, who acquired him from the Brewers following a separate DFA. He faced five batters in his lone Orioles appearance but didn’t record an out, yielding a hit and four walks. He’d go on to be charged for three earned runs. He also struggled through 22 1/3 innings in Milwaukee and currently sports an ugly 6.85 ERA on the season. In 51 career innings at the MLB level, Vieira has a 6.71 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate and bloated 13% walk rate.
It’s a nondescript track record, but Vieira is also one of MLB’s hardest throwers, averaging 98 mph on his heater and frequently touching triple digits. Command has been an ongoing issue for him, but the raw power of his repertoire continues to pique teams’ interest. The right-hander also had a nice run with the Yomiuri Giants of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball from 2020-22, posting a 3.61 ERA with a hearty 26.2% strikeout rate. Since Vieira is out of minor league options, he’ll immediately join the big league bullpen, but that lack of flexibility could also have him on a short leash if he continues to struggle as he did in Milwaukee and Baltimore.
Both Vieira and Jacques will add fresh arms to an Arizona bullpen that needed to cover seven innings in a blowout loss after Jordan Montgomery lasted just two innings. Relievers Bryce Jarvis, Brandon Hughes and Logan Allen all pitched at least two innings yesterday and figure to be unavailable today if at all possible. Righty Kevin Ginkel threw 35 pitches a day prior as well, adding to the currently taxed nature of manager Torey Lovullo’s relief corps.
Reds Option Graham Ashcraft
The Reds announced Thursday that they’ve optioned struggling right-hander Graham Ashcraft to Triple-A Louisville. His spot on the roster will go to reliever Emilio Pagan, who’s being reinstated after a stint on the 15-day injured list due to a triceps injury.
It’s the first time Ashcraft, 26, has been optioned to the minors since May 2022, when he was sent down a day after making his MLB debut in a spot start. The 2019 sixth-rounder started 19 games for Cincinnati in 2022 and another 26 games last year. Were it not for a calf strain and a stress reaction in his foot, he’d have been ticketed for a full slate of starts in the Reds’ rotation last season.
Though Ashcraft has struggled with consistency, he’s at times looked the part of a viable third or fourth starter in the Reds’ rotation. He opened last season with a dominant 2.00 ERA in his first six trips to the hill, and while his K-BB profile didn’t support quite that level of success, he was showing huge ground-ball tendencies and finding success with a new cutter and revamped slider that looked far better than his 2022 version of the same pitch.
A disastrous stretch followed, wherein Ashcraft was shellacked for 47 earned runs in 33 innings over his next eight starts — including outings that saw him yield ten, eight, seven (twice) and six earned runs. Lost as he looked in that span of six weeks, Ashcraft then rattled off a dozen starts of 2.58 ERA ball to close out his season, averaging 6 1/3 innings per start along the way and never allowing more than three runs in any one start. The big righty still had a subpar strikeout rate in that excellent run but offset that flaw with improved command and strong ground-ball tendencies. It was a promising finish to a season — one that seemed to speak louder than his ultimately pedestrian 4.76 ERA.
The 2024 season has again been a struggle, though not to the extent of last year’s eye-popping slump. Ashcraft currently sports a 5.05 ERA with a well below-average 17.4% strikeout rate but a strong 7.5% walk rate and encouraging 49% ground-ball rate. However, after averaging more than six innings per start down the stretch last year and pitching into the sixth inning in five of his first six starts this season, Ashcraft has struggled with efficiency of late. He’s pitched into the sixth just once in his past six trips to the hill. Though he’s averaging less than 4 2/3 frames per outing in this stretch, he’s done so while requiring an average of 89 pitches along the way.
Unsurprisingly, Ashcraft’s results have suffered. He posted a 3.63 ERA through his first six starts but has turned in a 6.83 mark since that time. His walk rate has spiked from 6.1% to 9%, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 20.1% to 14.3%. He’ll now try to get back on track in Louisville.
From a service time vantage point, Ashcraft’s demotion isn’t likely to alter his path to free agency. He entered the season with 1.136 years of MLB service, meaning he only needed another 36 days to reach two years and stay on track for free agency in the 2028-29 offseason. That said, he was on track to be a very likely Super Two player, making him arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, and that’ll become unlikely if his stay in Louisville lasts more than a couple weeks.
The Reds will continue to deploy a rotation including Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott and Frankie Montas. Veteran swingman Nick Martinez, signed to a two-year deal, could step back into the rotation in place of Ashcraft for the time being. Triple-A starters Connor Phillips, Christian Roa, Lyon Richardson and Carson Spiers are all on the 40-man roster and could represent alternative options, but Spiers is the only one of that group who’s pitched particularly well in Louisville this season. He’s made four long relief appearances for Cincinnati already this season, totaling 13 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball. Lefty Brandon Williamson has yet to pitch in the big leagues this season due to a shoulder injury but is another candidate, as he’s made four minor league rehab starts and is nearing the end of his rehab window.
White Sox Open To Offers On Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet
The White Sox are baseball’s worst team by a long shot and seemed to acknowledge that likelihood even before the season began when they traded Dylan Cease to the Padres in spring training. San Diego is already reportedly interested in yet another Sox pitcher, lefty Garrett Crochet, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Sox are open to offers not only on Crochet but on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Passan categorizes the ChiSox as “open for business” and lists Robert, Crochet, Erick Fedde and virtually all of the team’s short-term veterans as players who could be moved between now and the trade deadline.
Fedde, Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Mike Clevinger, John Brebbia, Tim Hill and other players who aren’t signed long-term — Fedde is signed through next season, the others are all free agents this winter — all stood as obvious trade candidates to begin with. I wrote about Fedde’s trade candidacy for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. DeJong recently said on 670 The Score in Chicago that he and Pham both fully expect to be traded. That anyone from that group is viewed as likely to change hands is only logical.
Names like Robert and Crochet being available is far less certain, even for a rebuilding club like the Sox, given the amount of club control each has remaining. In Robert’s case, he’s signed through the 2027 season in the form of a $12.5MM salary this season, a $15MM salary in 2025 and a pair of club options valued at $20MM apiece (both with a $2MM buyout). Crochet entered the 2024 campaign with three years of big league service, meaning he’s in his first arbitration season and has another pair of seasons of club control beyond 2024.
It bears emphasizing that the Sox being “open” to offers or “willing to trade” either player is far different from the team actively shopping said players. That open-minded approach is also far from a guarantee that either will be moved. The substantial control remaining beyond the current season means Chicago GM Chris Getz will set an enormous asking price on both players, and both will still retain tremendous trade value into the offseason and even into next year’s deadline if a deal doesn’t come together this summer.
Robert, still just 26 years old, returned from the injured list yesterday after an absence of nearly two months. He suffered a Grade 2 strain of his hip flexor early in the season and was sidelined for the bulk of April and the entirety of May. He wasted little time in reminding the type of impact he brings to a game, going 2-for-4 with a homer in his return effort. The Cuban-born five-tool standout has played in only eight games and taken just 33 plate appearances this season but carries a .250/.273/.594 batting line with three homers.
Last year saw Robert take his always tantalizing game to new heights. The dynamic center fielder stayed healthy for a career-high 145 games and posted a stout .264/.315/.542 batting line with a career-high 38 home runs, 36 doubles, a triple and 20 stolen bases (in 24 tries). Robert ranked in the 84th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast, and was among the league leaders in barrel rate. He’s a premium outfield defender with plus range and an above-average arm — evidenced both by gaudy Statcast percentile rankings and by career marks of +13 Defensive Runs Saved and +24 Outs Above Average in 3116 innings of work.
Durability and an over-aggressive approach at the plate are the primary knocks on Robert, who is two months into his fifth MLB season and already has five career IL placements for injury (plus another shorter stay on the Covid-related injured list). Robert played in 56 of 60 games during his rookie showing in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but he logged just 68 and 98 games in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and he could finish the 2024 season with fewer than 100 games played as well, thanks to one already lengthy absence. He’s now had significant strains of his left and right hip flexors, in addition to an MCL sprain and a wrist strain in his career.
In terms of Robert’s approach at the plate, the results are strong so it’s hard to be too critical. But Robert rarely walks (career 5.3%) and chases pitches off the plate more than nearly any player in the sport. Since his 2020 debut, only Salvador Perez, Harold Ramirez and Javier Baez swing at more balls out of the strike zone than Robert’s massive 46.3% (at least among qualified hitters). His 54.6% contact rate on such swings is well below average, and his career 83.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is also a couple points south of par. It hasn’t led to an exorbitant strikeout rate just yet — Robert has fanned in 25.5% of his career plate appearances — but it’s a less-than-ideal trend that could worsen if Robert loses what Statcast currently measures as elite bat speed (seventh fastest in the majors, on average).
There’s little precedent for a player of this quality with this level of affordability and team control being traded. Robert is owed just under $8MM through season’s end as of this writing plus another $45MM over the next three seasons. Three-and-a-half years of an MVP-caliber talent at a maximum rate of $63MM is a raucous bargain by today’s contractual standards. Teams may be wary of Robert’s injury history and free-swinging ways, but he’s signed for the remainder of his 20s and would be a legitimately franchise-altering deadline acquisition if a team can put together an impressive enough trade offer. Robert might not quite command the type of haul the Padres sent to the Nats for Juan Soto a couple years back, but he’s closer to that level of value than the standard deadline trade candidates. Getz alluded to as much in the offseason, calling Robert “one of the best players in baseball” and noting that he was a “difficult player to trade.”
There are similarities, in terms of trade value, when it comes to Crochet. It’s rare to see a high-end pitcher with two and a half seasons of club control traded at the deadline. Crochet is extra appealing given that his injuries and former role in the bullpen have tamped down his first-year arbitration price. He’s being paid only $800K this season. He’ll be due a pair of notable raises in each of the next two offseasons but still isn’t likely to command even $15MM in salary over those two years.
The 24-year-old Crochet’s transition from reliever to starter hit a brief snag with a trio of rough outings in mid-April, but he’s on an absolute tear right now and looks the part of a frontline starter, as one might expect for a former first-round talent who has long been touted to have ace upside. In 13 starts, Crochet is sitting on a 3.49 earned run average with vastly better fielding-independent marks (2.87 FIP, 2.48 SIERA). That’s due largely to his elite strikeout and walk numbers; Crochet has punched out 33.7% of his opponents against just a 5.4% walk rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average 45.9% clip and averaging a blazing 96.9 mph on his heater.
Since that set of consecutive rough outings in April, Crochet has been on another planet. Arguably baseball’s best pitcher in that time, he’s logged a 1.35 ERA with a 53-to-7 K/BB ratio over his past 40 innings. Crochet allowed five, seven and five earned runs in his run of three straight rocky April outings. He’s yielded two or fewer runs in each of his ten other starts this season.
Rival clubs might be wary of how well he’ll hold up over the course of a full season in the rotation. It’s a fair qualm, as Crochet pitched just 25 innings last season and didn’t pitch at all in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year’s 69 2/3 innings are already a new career-high for the lefty, who entered 2024 with only 85 1/3 professional innings total (majors and minors combined). That said, even if there are concerns about Crochet fading down the stretch, there’s considerable long-term upside, as one would imagine the effects of a full starter’s workload will be more normalized for him in 2025 and 2026. If he wears down later this year, he’s also quite familiar with pitching in short relief.
Any trepidation about how he’ll hold up this year hasn’t stopped the Padres from reaching out to the White Sox. They’ve reportedly inquired on the lefty and have strong interest in him, which makes sense given not only Crochet’s dominance and San Diego’s need for arms, but also his minimal salary and the Friars’ relative proximity to the luxury tax barrier. Adding one of the game’s most dominant pitchers while barely even advancing your luxury tax line ought to hold overwhelming appeal for the majority of the team’s highest-spending clubs. At the same time, Crochet’s minimal salary also makes him appealing to small-market clubs with payroll concerns. Short of the innings worries, he’s an ideal trade target.
Because of that, the asking price on Crochet figures to be extreme, just as it will be with Robert. If Getz and his team genuinely make both available and play some bidders against one another, the Sox could genuinely overhaul the entire farm system with this pair of trades — to say nothing of deals involving Fedde, Pham and the other previously mentioned veterans. It’s going to take an enormous package of prospects to pry either player from the Sox, but with widespread mediocrity permeating the National League and leaving few teams in position to truly wave the white flag on the 2024 season, it could be a seller’s market. There’s no salvaging this lost season for the South Siders, but getting one or both of these trades right could wildly accelerate their rebuilding efforts.
Mets Release Omar Narvaez, Jorge Lopez
The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve released veteran catcher Omar Narvaez and right-hander Jorge Lopez. Both were designated for assignment last week, and both are now free agents. New York also selected the contract of catcher Joe Hudson from Triple-A Syracuse, moving righty Shintaro Fujinami to the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot. Hudson is a candidate to serve as an extra player for the Mets’ London Series against the Phillies, where each team will be granted a 27th player.
The 32-year-old Narvaez is playing out the second season of a two-year, $15MM contract he signed in the 2022-23 offseason. He had the right to opt out of said contract following the 2023 season, but after a .211/.283/.297 showing in his first year with the club, he unsurprisingly passed on that opportunity. He’s struggled even more in 2024, hitting just .154/.191/.185 in 69 trips to the plate.
Though his run with the Mets was dismal, Narvaez was a quality regular for several years leading up to that deal. From 2018-22, he slashed .254/.337/.397 between the White Sox, Mariners and Brewers — even landing an All-Star nod with the ’21 Brewers. Milwaukee also worked with Narvaez to dramatically improve his glovework — specifically his framing skills — improving upon the below-average grades he drew during his time with Seattle and Chicago.
Any team in need of some catching help could take a flier on Narvaez and would owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the Mets still owe him, but they’re on the hook for the bulk of his $8MM salary regardless. The Marlins and Cubs have had the game’s worst production behind the plate this season, and while Narvaez himself has had an extremely rough go of it, his track record might be appealing to them or another club with suspect backstops.
Lopez’s time with the Mets ended in controversial fashion. The right-hander, showing ample frustration after a poor outing, angrily lobbed his glove into the stands as he walked off the field. After the game, when asked about his actions, the Puerto Rican-born righty said he did not regret his actions and offered a candid assessment. Lopez, speaking his second language without an interpreter by his side, has stressed that he intended to state that he had been “the worst —-ing teammate” in MLB (presumably due to that outburst). But it was difficult in the moment to discern whether he’d said “worst teammate” or called the Mets the “worst team,” and when asked to clarify, he suggested both (again, without an interpreter/translator at his side).
The situation was further muddied by Lopez telling the media that he hadn’t spoken to Mets management about the issue, when he in fact had discussed it with manager Carlos Mendoza. The Mets wound up designating Lopez for assignment. In the hours after the incident, it came to light that he’s also been dealing with significant personal distress. His young son is on a transplant list and awaiting a donor. Add in that Lopez has previously spent time on the injured list due to anxiety issues, and it becomes clear that there’s far more at play than simply losing his temper and some mistaken words.
As with Narvaez, any club can now sign Lopez and owe him only the prorated minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. The manner in which his Mets tenure drew to a close will likely impact his market, but while not excusing his actions, it’s also easy to look at the situation from personal/human standpoint and understand why things may have unraveled for the 31-year-old righty.
Lopez pitched fairly well with the Mets, logging 26 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball. A sub-par 17.1% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate both lead fielding-independent metrics to take a more bearish view of his work, however (4.65 FIP, 4.46 SIERA). Lopez had a breakout 2022 showing with the Orioles and Twins but followed that up with a sub-par 2023 campaign spent mostly in Minnesota.
After a brilliant start to the season in which he was unscored upon into May, Lopez hit a rough patch and wound up taking some time away from the Twins due to his anxiety. He expressed gratitude to the team for allowing him to focus on his mental health upon his return to the club. Unfortunately, his results following the break were still sub-par, and the Twins wound up flipping him to the Marlins in a deadline deal sending Dylan Floro back to Minnesota.
Taken in totality, the last three seasons from Lopez have yielded solid, if inconsistent results. He’s pitched 156 1/3 innings and logged a 4.03 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate and 51.2% grounder rate. Lopez’s strikeouts and ground-ball tendencies have trended downward since 2022, however, as has the velocity on his power sinker — which at at 97.8 mph in ’22 but averaged 95.4 mph with the Mets this season. Whatever comes next for the right-hander, the hope beyond the baseball field is that his son finds the donor he needs and that Lopez continues to prioritize his mental health.
Turning to the journeyman Hudson, this will be the 33-year-old’s first time on a big league roster since the 2020 season. He’s appeared in 18 big league games and taken 33 plate appearances, going 5-for-30 with a double, two walks, six strikeouts and a sacrifice in that time. The former sixth-round pick has been with nine organizations in his professional career, including brief MLB stints with the Mariners, Angels and Cardinals. In 19 games with the Syracuse Mets this season, he’s hitting .222/.364/.444 with three home runs and three doubles.
Cubs’ Hoyer On Deadline Approach, Needs
The 2024 Cubs surged out to a 17-10 start for the season’s first month, turning in a +20 run differential and looking every bit like a favorite in the National League Central. The script has flipped over the past month-plus, however, as Chicago has gone 12-19 and allowed 25 more runs than they’ve scored in the 31 games since. They’re now six games back of a Brewers club that holds a relatively commanding lead in the division.
Thankfully for the Cubs — and many other non-division leaders in the National League — the 2024 NL is rife with mediocrity thus far. Only four NL clubs have a winning record more than a third of the way through the season. Chicago’s modest 30-31 standing on the season is actually enough to give them a one-game lead for the third NL Wild Card spot. (Conversely, the 33-27 Twins hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.)
With the Cubs still squarely in the playoff picture and just under eight weeks to go until the 2024 trade deadline, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is unsurprisingly looking ahead with a buyer’s mentality. The longtime Cubs exec chatted with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney about his team’s recent play, conceding that they’ve “played poor baseball in a lot of ways” but expressing confidence that there’s a turnaround on the horizon.
Hoyer added that he’s “constantly looking to improve our team” and more specifically lamented the lack of home-run power on his squad. “You need to be able to homer at the right times,” said Hoyer. “And you need to be able to score in bunches. That’s something we haven’t done, especially early. … You got to put pressure on the opposing manager. You got to get into the bad part of the bullpen. We haven’t done a good enough job.”
The Cubs are a middle-of-the-pack team on the season as a whole, with 60 round-trippers on the year. But over the past 30 days, Chicago’s 24 home runs are tied for 22nd in the majors. In that span, the Cubs rank 29th in baseball with a .216 average, 21st with a .299 on-base percentage and 28th with a .347 slugging percentage. Their combined 23.7% strikeout rate is also the sixth-highest in the majors.
Digging in a bit further, the Cubs have seen strong production from Cody Bellinger over the past month. Ian Happ has hit for a low average with a middling OBP but shown plenty of power. It’s been the inverse for Michael Busch, who’s hit .189 and flailed away with a 37% strikeout rate but also drawn walks in more than one of five plate appearances, keeping his batting line afloat with a strong OBP.
The rest of the roster has struggled all around at the plate, with particular difficulty from Dansby Swanson and (to a lesser extent) double-play partner Nico Hoerner over the past month. Both are premium defenders who are signed long-term, however, so neither will be displaced anytime soon.
Bellinger has played some more first base recently in light of Busch’s contact struggles, but that’s left further questions in the outfield, where Seiya Suzuki has struggled upon hie return from the injured list and Pete Crow-Armstrong has yet to find his stride in a small sample of big league at-bats. Over at third base, Christopher Morel has struggled on both sides of the ball recently — yesterday’s home run notwithstanding. The Cubs’ catching tandem of Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya, meanwhile, has been one of the worst in baseball from an offensive standpoint, combining for a .176/.220/.261 slash.
Speculatively speaking, the most straightforward areas at which to add would be third base, catcher or designated hitter. A third baseman with some power and a solid glove would be particularly prudent, as it’d allow Morel to move to more of a DH-heavy role. There might not be many such hitters on the market, however, particularly if the Rockies stick to their reported desire to hang onto Ryan McMahon. If the Astros wind up selling, impending free agent Alex Bregman is a logical target, but Houston GM Dana Brown recently downplayed the notion that Houston would trade pieces away. Toronto GM Ross Atkins took a similar approach in suggesting trades of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and/or Bo Bichette don’t “make any sense” for his club.
The market could have a few catchers available, particularly if the Blue Jays or Rockies are willing to part with impending free agents Danny Jansen and Elias Diaz. Of course, the trade market will continue to come into focus as the deadline draws nearer and as teams more firmly cement themselves as playoff contenders or more decisively fall back in the standings.
Taking a bigger-picture look, Bellinger’s ability to play all three outfield positions and first base gives Hoyer and his staff some flexibility in the type of hitter they pursue. If Busch continues to struggle, he could be optioned to Iowa, with Bellinger taking over first base on a full-time basis and the Cubs targeting an outfielder. If Busch can rebound, the Cubs could pursue any outfielder whose bat they covet, knowing Bellinger could slot into any of the three outfield slots, and that he, Happ, Suzuki and a new acquisition could rotate through the outfield and DH slots.
However they choose to go about it, the Cubs seem likely to be in the market for some extra punch heading into next month’s trade deadline. That’ll surely be true of many teams looking to bolster their rosters, but Chicago’s need is a bit more acute — and the roster offers multiple points for potential upgrades.
Dinelson Lamet Elects Free Agency
Right-hander Dinelson Lamet, who’d been pitching with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in Oklahoma City, has elected free agency, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Presumably, the minor league deal he inked with the Dodgers back in February contained an early June opt-out date that he chose to exercise.
Lamet, 31, briefly had his contract selected to the big league roster earlier this season. He pitched just 4 1/3 innings before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers, and accepting an outright assignment back to OKC. The former Padres hurler allowed just one earned run in that brief MLB stint. He’s spent the rest of the season in the rotation down in Triple-A, where he’s logged a 4.82 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 12.9% walk rate and 44.4% ground-ball rate in 37 1/3 innings. Lamet’s bottom-line results have improved of late (3.81 ERA over his past six starts), but his command remains problematic (13.6% walk rate in that stretch).
Early in his career, Lamet looked the part of a potential rising star in San Diego. He debuted in his age-24 campaign back in 2017 and notched a hefty 28.7% strikeout rate while holding his own with a 4.57 ERA over 21 starts. His 2018 season, however, was lost to Tommy John surgery.
Upon returning in 2019, Lamet lowered that ERA to 4.07 while upping his strikeout rate to 33.5% and cutting his walk rate to 9.6%. By the time the 2020 season rolled around, the 6’3″ flamethrower looked to be putting it all together. Lamet made a “full” slate of 12 starts during the pandemic-shortened season and posted a brilliant 2.09 ERA with a career-best 34.8% strikeout rate against a better-than-average 7.5% walk rate. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting.
Lamet opened the 2021 season on the injured list due to inflammation in his right forearm — a worrying development for a pitcher just three years removed from UCL surgery. He was activated in late April and eased into the season with a series of two- and three-inning “starts” and long relief appearances. San Diego pushed his workload more in the summer months, as Lamet made several five-inning starts before landing back on the injured list with further forearm troubles. When he returned in September, he was a full-time reliever — and that’s been his primary role since.
Lamet posted a 4.08 ERA in 315 2/3 innings over parts of five years with the Padres, striking out nearly 31% of his opponents along the way. He was struggling through what looked like a lost 2022 season when traded to the Brewers as a financial component of the ’22 Josh Hader blockbuster, however. Milwaukee immediately designated him for assignment, at which point the Rockies scooped him up on waivers. Lamet had a decent finish in Colorado, which helped him to avoid a non-tender, but he posted an 11.71 ERA in 27 2/3 innings between the Rox and Red Sox in 2023.
All told, Lamet has pitched to an 8.25 ERA in 64 1/3 big league innings dating back to Opening Day 2022. It’s an unsightly track record, but he’s turned in decent results as a starter with the Dodgers’ top minor league affiliate and can now market himself as an option to a team needing immediate rotation depth or any club seeking bullpen help.
Jose Urquidy To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
The Astros announced that right-hander Jose Urquidy will undergo elbow surgery, ending his 2024 season. Houston also confirmed that righty Cristian Javier will undergo season-ending elbow surgery, as was first reported yesterday by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. The team didn’t specify the nature of either surgery, though Rome indicated in his original report that Javier will require Tommy John surgery. Urquidy’s surgery is being performed today, so more details will likely be available once it’s completed. Javier is slated to have his procedure performed tomorrow.
Urquidy, 29, opened the season on the injured list with a forearm strain and will now miss the entire campaign. He did pitch a bit in the minor leagues on a rehab assignment last month, but he was lifted from what’ll be his final outing of the year after experiencing renewed pain in his forearm/elbow. The Astros subsequently announced that Urquidy was seeking a second opinion, which is frequently an ominous sign for injured pitchers.
When he’s been healthy enough to take the mound, Urquidy has proven himself to be a reliable rotation cog in Houston. Outside of an ugly 5.29 ERA last year in a season that was plagued by shoulder troubles, he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA in every season of his career, leaving him with a lifetime 3.98 mark in 405 MLB frames. His 19.6% strikeout rate is three percentage points below the league average, but Urquidy has offset that with a terrific 5.8% walk rate in his career. Home runs have been an issue, as is the case for many shorter righties with average fastball velocity, but his changeup has been an excellent pitch that’s helped him keep lefties at bay (.203/.255/.364).
Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that Urquidy could be headed for Tommy John surgery — which would be the second such procedure of his career. He previously had Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2017. Urquidy has also missed time in both 2021 and 2023 due to shoulder injuries. Whether this new procedure will be a standard Tommy John operation or a newer iteration that includes augmentation from an internal brace remains to be seen.
Either way, if this indeed proves to be a UCL-related surgery, it’s quite possible it’ll end Urquidy’s tenure with the Astros entirely. He’s being paid $3.75MM this season and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Houston would likely need to commit the same salary to Urquidy again for a 2025 season that would be mostly spent on the injured list.
Even if Urquidy were to agree to the maximum 40% pay cut permissible under the arbitration system, that’d still be a notable price to pay for a pitcher who might not make it back until late in the season — if he returns at all. If Urquidy had multiple seasons of club control remaining, the ‘Stros might make that concession, but the right-hander is slated to become a free agent following the 2025 campaign anyhow. It’s always possible they’ll come to some kind of agreement on a two-year deal that’s backloaded with most of the salary falling in 2026, but the injury unfortunately renders Urquidy a clear non-tender candidate.
With regard to the 2024 season, the official losses of both Urquidy and Javier is a gut-punch for a floundering Astros club. Houston sits at 28-34, placing them seven games behind the division-leading Mariners and six games back of the third AL Wild Card spot.
Poor starting pitching has been the most prominent reason for Houston’s decline in the AL West. In addition to Urquidy and Javier, the Astros have seen Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez both spend time on the injured list. Right-handers Hunter Brown and J.P. France — the latter now on the minor league IL due to a shoulder injury — have both taken significant steps back in 2024. Rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley have been hit hard (the latter in a single MLB spot start). Even with Ronel Blanco in the midst of a surprise breakout during his age-30 season, the Astros’ collective 4.71 rotation ERA ranks 26th in the majors.
Reinforcements should be on the horizon in the form of righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., though neither pitcher’s return is imminent just yet. Garcia, on the mend from Tommy John surgery performed last June, is facing live hitters and could soon head out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’d presumably require several starts before being deemed an option for the MLB rotation, however. McCullers, who had flexor surgery last summer, is a few weeks behind Garcia in his recovery process. In theory, Garcia could be back around the All-Star break, with McCullers not terribly far behind him — but that’s assuming no setbacks. And by that point, it’s also fair to wonder whether the Astros would feel the urgency to rush either pitcher.
Houston general manager Dana Brown said recently that he doesn’t envision any scenario where the Astros end up as trade deadline sellers, but it’s difficult to see how they’d be aggressive buyers if they fall much further back in the standings. There are just under eight weeks for the team to right the ship, and while a course correction is hardly implausible, the current paper-thin rotation depth means Houston will need its rotation to hold things down and perform much better while waiting on Garcia and McCullers.
Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, Brown and Arrighetti will carry on as the starting five for now, but the aforementioned Henley is the only other healthy starter on the 40-man roster. The Astros did sign lefty Eric Lauer to a minor league deal last month, and they could easily open 40-man space for him by putting Javier or Urquidy on the 60-day injured list. But Henley has been tagged for a 5.44 ERA in Triple-A this season, while Lauer was torched for seven runs over three innings in his first start with Triple-A Sugar Land. Houston can ill-afford another injury of note on the big league staff at the moment.
Marlins Outright Woo-Suk Go
The Marlins announced yesterday that right-hander Woo-Suk Go went unclaimed on outright waivers following last week’s DFA. He’s been assigned back to Triple-A Jacksonville, where he’ll continue to pitch but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster.
The 25-year-old Go was a star closer for the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins who came to North American ball this past offseason via the posting system. Signed to a two-year, $4.5MM contract by the Padres, Go was expected to open the year in San Diego’s bullpen and perhaps even work his way into a late-inning role. Upon arrival to spring training, however, Go’s typically upper 90s fastball reportedly checked in more in the 92-94 mph range. The Padres optioned him to Double-A to begin the year and wound up including him in the surprising early-season trade that sent Luis Arraez from Miami to San Diego.
Go’s inclusion in the swap always looked to be more of a cost-cutting measure for the Padres than a perk for the Fish. By including Go in the deal and getting the Marlins to pay down all but the prorated league minimum on Arraez’s deal, the Friars actually wound up cutting payroll and reducing their luxury-tax bill in the trade. The fact that Miami quickly designated Go for assignment and passed him through outright waivers only further supports the notion that he was effectively a financial component of that swap.
To Go’s credit, he’s pitched pretty well in the upper minors to begin the season. In 21 1/3 frames, he’s worked to a 3.80 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate, a 6.7% walk rate and a sharp 49.2% ground-ball rate. It should be noted that the majority of Go’s strikeouts came during his Double-A stint with the Padres, however. He’s fanned only three of the 36 batters he’s faced with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate in Jacksonville (8.3%).
There’s still plenty of time for Go to pitch his way into the Marlins’ bullpen picture — particularly if he can regain some of his velocity or find a way to miss more bats with lesser life on his heater. Go won’t turn 26 until August, so youth is on his side, and his track record in South Korea is excellent. Over a five-year period with LG Twins from 2019-23, Go piled up 139 saves while recording a 2.39 ERA with a 30.2% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate and a ground-ball rate north of 60%.