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Latest On Twins’ Controllable Pitchers

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The Twins are increasingly leaning toward the sell side of things as the trade deadline looms next week. Minnesota is open to moving rental players and reportedly will at least listen to offers on some of its more appealing and controllable pitchers, though the chances of a trade appear slim. Top starter Joe Ryan and relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax — all under club control through 2027 — have drawn the most attention to date. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, however, that the asking price on Duran and Jax has been so high that some teams aren’t even spending time contemplating a real run at Ryan, whose price would be even higher. Minnesota has been seeking “at least two top-100-caliber prospects” to part with either Duran or Jax, per Passan.

[Related: Minnesota Twins Trade Deadline Outlook]

It’s a steep ask, though an understandable one. Both Duran and Jax have power arsenals and elite bat-missing ability that’s coupled with good command. Both are affordable. Duran is earning $4.125MM in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Jax is earning $2.365MM.

Since making his debut with the Twins in 2022, Duran has ranked among the game’s elite relievers. The 27-year-old sits north of 100 mph with his fastball and pairs it with an upper-90s sinker/splitter hybrid (“splinker”) that misses bats and piles up grounders. In 230 2/3 big league innings, Duran boasts a 2.46 ERA, 30.8% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate, 63.7% ground-ball rate and just 0.66 homers per nine innings pitched. He’s sitting on a 1.94 ERA in 46 1/3 frames this season and has 15 saves and a hold in 18 save opportunities this year.

Jax, 30, has a more pedestrian 4.09 ERA due largely to some early home runs but arguably has even more overpowering arrows in his quiver. He doesn’t sit 100 mph like his teammate but averages better than 97 mph and misses more bats. The former third-round pick has set down 36.4% of his opponents on strikes this season and walked only 6.4% of the batters he’s faced. Jax boasts a deep arsenal of six pitches but relies first and foremost on a sweeper and changeup that miss bats at elite levels. Among the 524 big league pitchers with even 10 innings pitched this season, Jax ranks fifth with a 19.4% swinging-strike rate, trailing only Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Mason Miller and Fernando Cruz.

Understandably, the cost to acquire either pitcher is set at a lofty level. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez nonetheless writes that he’s gotten the sense Minnesota will move at least one of the two. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the two relievers have been heavily scouted by contending clubs in all of their most recent appearances.

As for Ryan, it’d presumably take an even larger offer for the Twins to consider parting with him. The 29-year-old All-Star has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, working to a 2.63 ERA with a 29.2% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate in 116 1/3 innings. He’s been consistent along the way, holding opponents to two or fewer runs in 15 of 19 starts and averaging better than six innings per start. Ryan is earning just $3MM this season and is owed two more raises in arbitration over the next two offseasons.

An alternative for teams inquiring with the Twins about their bullpen would be 33-year-old Brock Stewart, who’s also controlled through the 2027 season. Stewart has a lengthy injury history but has been excellent since signing a minor league deal with the Twins a few years ago. Injuries have interrupted each of his three seasons with Minnesota, but Stewart has a sparkling 2.38 ERA with a 31.9% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate in 75 2/3 innings dating back to 2023. He’s averaging 96 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker this season and is earning just $870K. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently listed Stewart among his nine under-the-radar bullpen targets for contending clubs.

Dodgers Could Make Dustin May Available

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The Dodgers have considered the possibility of trading right-hander Dustin May, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. His colleague, Fabian Ardaya, hears similarly and reminds that Los Angeles has traded starters from its big league roster at each of the past two deadlines (James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard).

Los Angeles has a bevy of starters on the roster, but many are injured. May’s 99 innings rank second on the team, as do his 17 starts, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto in both categories. Clayton Kershaw is the only other Dodger with even ten starts on the year. That said, L.A. recently welcomed Tyler Glasnow back from the injured list. Shohei Ohtani has resumed pitching, though he’s yet to top three innings in a start. Emmet Sheehan returned from Tommy John surgery in mid-June and has pitched well. Blake Snell is expected back soon. He’s made three rehab starts, building up to four innings his last time out, and has allowed a total of two runs in nine frames with a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio.

The Dodgers are known to be exploring the market for high-end relievers. May isn’t going to be a key component — or a component at all — in any trade where the Dodgers pry a top reliever like Emmanuel Clase, Ryan Helsley or Jhoan Duran away from their current teams. He’s a free agent at season’s end and thus wouldn’t hold interest to a club that’s gravitating toward the sell side of the deadline spectrum. However, trading May could bring in a reliever in a one-for-one swap with another contender seeking rotation help or could net some additional prospects to help soften the hit to the farm system if the Dodgers make a splash elsewhere.

It’s perhaps telling that the Dodgers don’t simply move May to the ’pen himself, though he’d presumably prefer to avoid such a move. He’s in his final season before free agency and his first year back after a 2024 season lost to flexor surgery rehab and a separate esophageal surgery. There’s no indication at all that May would push back on a more lasting move to relief work, to be clear, but it’s arguably in the 27-year-old righty’s best interest to continue on as a starter and build that workload up in his platform year. May followed Ohtani with 4 2/3 innings of long relief his last time.

May’s 2025 season has brought mixed results. His 99 innings are already a career-high at the MLB level for the frequently injured righty. He got out to a nice start (4.09 ERA, 24.2 K%, 8.5 BB% through June 2) but has hit a rockier stretch lately. Dating back to June 9, May has pitched 37 1/3 innings with a 5.79 ERA, 17.2% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. May’s velocity has held up, but he’s pushing into uncharted waters in terms of big league workload and doing so in his first season back on the mound following a year off. Some struggles are not necessarily surprising.

Because of that, the Dodgers would be selling low on May. However, given his status as an impending free agent who’s unlikely to receive a qualifying offer anyhow, the alternative would be hanging onto him and letting him go for no return at season’s end. If the Dodgers are either concerned about his ability to downshift to a bullpen role or simply want to do right by the player and find him an opportunity to continue working out of a rotation, a trade in the next week would make sense.

Giants Notes: Devers, Birdsong, Rotation, Outfield

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Rafael Devers made the first start of his career at first base for the Giants this week and, coincidentally or not, belted his first two home runs in nearly a month the following day. The recently acquired Giants infielder has now tallied three straight multi-hit games an looks to be emerging from a lengthy slump. He said after his first base debut that he briefly felt a bit nervous at his new position but quickly settled in (link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

With Devers now ticketed for more regular work at first base, Wilmer Flores seems likely to pick up more DH at-bats. He’d been struggling at the plate while playing the infield corners (primarily first base) over the past month. For a player who struggled through knee troubles all last season before that knee ended his 2024 campaign, getting off his feet a bit more in the DH spot could prove beneficial. Devers is also playing through a back issue, but the two can perhaps now share time between the two spots in the short term. Devers added after last night’s game that he thinks he’s a better hitter when playing in the field, noting that it “keeps my head out of just thinking about the next at-bat.”

While Devers will surely be their biggest acquisition of the summer, there’s still room for the 54-49 Giants to upgrade the roster. They’ve been looking into second base options (Isiah Kiner-Falefa reportedly among them), and some recent struggles near the back of the rotation — coupled with lefty Kyle Harrison’s inclusion in the Devers return — have created some questions on the starting staff as well.

[Related: San Francisco Giants Trade Deadline Outlook]

San Francisco optioned right-hander Hayden Birdsong to Triple-A Sacramento earlier this week after a start in which he yielded five runs to the Braves (in large part because of four walks) without recording an out. That proved to be the tipping point, but Birdsong’s struggles extended well beyond that one nightmare outing. The 23-year-old was the talk of spring training thanks to a dominant performance and looked like a revelation out of the bullpen early in the season. San Francisco moved him into the rotation in late May, and the early returns were good: five starts, 25 innings, 3.24 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate.

Things went downhill from there. Birdsong was tagged for 14 runs in 12 1/3 innings across his next three starts. He bounced back with a strong performance against the A’s but then bottomed out with this week’s collapse versus Atlanta. All told, he has a 10.38 ERA (22 runs, 20 earned) over his past five starts — a span of just 17 1/3 innings.

The Giants are still weighing their options to replace Birdsong, but the back of the rotation’s struggles don’t end there. Justin Verlander finally picked up his first win as a Giant yesterday but did so while scattering five walks over five scoreless innings. He’s started 17 games and pitched to a 4.70 ERA over the life of 84 1/3 innings. Since returning from a monthlong IL stint due to a pectoral strain on June 18, Verlander has a 5.29 ERA with a 19.2% strikeout rate.

Verlander is the clear fourth starter behind Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and breakout righty Landen Roupp at the moment. In-house alternatives like Trevor McDonald, Carson Ragsdale and Mason Black have posted underwhelming results in Triple-A. Righty Carson Seymour has been working in long relief but pitched pretty well as a starter in Triple-A. There’s certainly room to add a starter to solidify the back of the staff and provide some insurance against an injury to Webb or Ray — either of which would be a devastating loss.

Both Rubinand John Shea and Kerry Crowley of the San Francisco Standard called out a right-handed-hitting outfielder as a potential area for upgrade this week. It’s a sensible pursuit, given Mike Yastrzemski’s longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching. The Giants have given 110 plate appearances to 23-year-old Luis Matos this year, but he’s posted just a .173/.218/.375 batting line in that time.

Righty-swinging outfielders expected to be available include Minnesota’s Harrison Bader, Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, the Orioles’ Ramon Laureano and perhaps Chas McCormick of the Astros or Adolis Garcia of the Rangers. Not all of those outfielders will change hands, of course. The White Sox would very likely need to pay down some of Robert’s salary, but they’re willing to do so and he’s caught fire at the plate recently, making him a more interesting option than he might’ve been even one month ago.

Orioles Place Félix Bautista On Injured List Due To Shoulder Discomfort

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The Orioles announced Thursday that closer Félix Bautista has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. Righty Kade Strowd has been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to take his spot on the active roster.

Bautista, 30, is in his first season back on the mound after missing the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery. He has, in many ways, picked up where he left off pre-injury and reclaimed his status as a high-end reliever. He’s tossed 34 2/3 innings, saved 19 games and logged a 2.60 ERA with a gaudy 35.2% strikeout rate.

Bautista’s command, however, isn’t as sharp as it was prior to surgery. He’s walked 16.2% of his opponents this year — way up from the 10% mark he recorded in 2022-23. Bautista has also changed up his pitch selection, scrapping his four-seamer in favor of a sinker. That’s led to an uptick in grounders (50.7% in 2025 compared to 39.9% in 2022-23) but fewer whiffs. Impressive as that 35.2% strikeout rate is, it pales in comparison to the superhuman 46.4% rate he posted in 2023. Bautista’s sinker, notably, is sitting 97.2 mph — a good bit shy of the 99.3 mph he averaged on his four-seamer prior to surgery.

The Orioles control Bautista via arbitration for another two seasons beyond the current one. He’s come up in trade rumblings over the past month, but not because the Orioles have been shopping him. Contending clubs around the league have long since zeroed in on the Orioles as a club that will function as a seller on the summer market and have hoped to pry Bautista loose. The O’s have reportedly listened out of due diligence, but general manager Mike Elias has been clear that he has every intention of competing in 2026. Bautista will play a prominent role in that effort. Elias has, accordingly, been focused primarily on discussing players who are “towards the end of their contracts,” as he put it last week.

Whatever slim chance there was of a team making an overwhelming offer to convince the O’s to part with Bautista was dashed with today’s placement on the injured list. Contending clubs would almost certainly have balked at the exorbitant asking price even for a healthy Bautista. Now that there’s uncertainty regarding the health of his shoulder, it’ll be next to impossible for the O’s to find someone willing to meet whatever sky-high price they’d set.

Bautista is set for an MRI to determine the extent of the discomfort, which arose yesterday while he was getting loose in the bullpen, interim manager Tony Mansolino told the Orioles’ beat (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner). Mansolino added that he’s not yet sure who will step into closing duties while Bautista is sidelined. Right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and left-hander Gregory Soto have been next in the pecking order in terms of high-leverage work for the Orioles, but they’re both impending free agents who will likely be traded within the next week. Hard-throwing Yennier Cano has plenty of experience in high-leverage spots but is in the midst of an uneven season that saw him optioned to Triple-A for a bit earlier this summer.

Rockies To Select Nick Anderson

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The Rockies are set to select the contract of right-hander Nick Anderson from Triple-A Albuquerque, as first reported by Chase Ford of MiLB Central. Colorado is off today while traveling to Baltimore for a three-game set against the Orioles, so the move might not be formally announced until tomorrow.

Anderson, 35, signed a minor league pact with Colorado back in late May. He spent the early portion of the season with the Cardinals’ Triple-A club after originally signing a minor league deal with St. Louis. He opted out of that deal before landing with the Rox.

A veteran of five big league seasons, Anderson has an outstanding track record of results in the majors but a poor track record of health. Dating back to the 2020 season, he’s missed time with a shoulder strain, an internal brace procedure on his right ulnar collateral ligament, plantar fasciitis, a back strain and forearm inflammation.

When healthy enough to take the field, Anderson has pitched 158 1/3 innings with a 3.18 ERA, a 31.6% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. He boasts an excellent 34.1% opponents’ chase rate and 15.4% swinging-strike rate in his big league career.

Anderson has pitched 11 1/3 innings with the Rockies’ Triple-A club and allowed six runs on 13 hits and six walks (three intentional) with 15 strikeouts. It comes out to a 4.76 ERA, though nearly all of the damage against him came in one nightmare outing where he yielded four runs to the Padres’ Triple-A club without recording an out.

The Rockies’ 4.91 bullpen ERA is fifth-worst in the majors, and over the past month they’re at a 5.87 mark that ranks 28th in MLB. Jake Bird, their most effective reliever for much of the season, has run into a particularly rough patch over the past 30 days (10 runs in 8 2/3 frames). It’s not a surprise to see Colorado taking a look at a fresh arm.

Beyond that, it’s quite possible that some members of the bullpen will be shipped off to new clubs in the week between now and the July 31 trade deadline. Recent struggles notwithstanding, Bird stands as a logical trade candidate alongside veterans Tyler Kinley and Jimmy Herget. If the Rockies want to go a step further, controllable power arms like Seth Halvorsen and Victor Vodnik would surely command prominent interest. Vodnik is controlled through 2029, however, while Halvorsen is controlled all the way through 2030.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Sandy Alcantara

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As the Padres gear up for a deadline that seems like it’ll see them operate on both the buying and selling side of the market, they’ve reached out to the Marlins to inquire about right-hander Sandy Alcantara, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

San Diego’s interest in Alcantara comes less than 24 hours after it was reported that they’ve been willing to discuss fellow righty Dylan Cease with other clubs. Lin adds that he’s heard similarly. Both right-handers have underperformed this season but feature strong track records and power arsenals. Shipping out an underperforming former Cy Young finalist to bring in an underperforming former Cy Young winner might seem like shuffling the deck chairs, but there’s typically a method to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s deadline madness.

Cease is earning $13.75MM in his final season of club control before reaching free agency. Alcantara is earning $17MM this season and is signed for the same amount in 2026, with a $21MM club option for the 2027 season. If the Padres were to trade Cease and acquire Alcantara, they would essentially be swapping out — not directly for one another, of course — two pitchers of comparable upside but coming away with the one who provides rotation stability beyond the current season.

As ever, there are roadblocks to be considered. The Padres’ baseball operations staff isn’t believed to have much financial flexibility at its disposal presently. That was a key driver in their frugal slate of offseason signings (e.g. Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Elias Diaz, Martin Maldonado, Jose Iglesias), and it’s also a factor in why they’re listening to offers on Cease in the first place.

Even if they were to trade Cease and the entirety of his remaining salary, turning and adding Alcantara would add about $1.153MM onto the current payroll — and do so at a time when the Padres are also looking for help in left field and behind the plate. That said, the Marlins were willing to pay down virtually all of Luis Arraez’s salary when they lined up with the Padres on a May 2024 trade. Doing so allowed Miami to ask for more talent in exchange and allowed the Padres to get the player they coveted even in the face of payroll constraints from ownership. They could try a similar path here.

That brings up a potentially even more prominent roadblock: a thin farm system. San Diego’s prospect cache has been repeatedly leveraged to acquire veteran players over the years and left the team with a top-heavy system. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are considered among the sport’s very best young talents. The Padres are ostensibly loath to part with either, and the rest of the system is less compelling.

Trading Cease could help in that regard. Even with the right-hander falling shy of his prior standards this season, he’s still averaging better than 97 mph on his heater and missing bats at an elite level. He’d surely command a notable return. It’s possible Cease could be swapped out for big league help at another position of need (e.g. the previously referenced left field or catcher), but a contending club would likely be reluctant to give the Padres a big league outfielder or catcher in exchange for a rental arm. A trade for prospects would be more straightforward, and because the Padres are a luxury tax payor, there’s incentive to move him rather than make a qualifying offer. Their CBT status would drop the compensation for Cease from a pick after the first round to a pick after the fourth.

Speculatively speaking, the Padres can look to find a trade partner for Cease while in the same breath using some of that return to help pry Alcantara loose from Miami. They could potentially even structure it as a three-team trade, though that’s not necessary. They went through a similar sequence in the 2023-24 offseason when trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a prospect package headlined by right-hander Drew Thorpe, only to turn and trade Thorpe to the White Sox a couple months later as part of the package to acquire Cease.

Adding Alcantara would be of extra importance to the Padres because of that remaining club control. Both Cease and Michael King are free agents at season’s end. Next year’s rotation outlook currently includes Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish (in his age-39 season), Joe Musgrove (in his return from Tommy John surgery) and some combination of Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Pivetta can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season.

Whether some form of Cease/Alcantara shell game comes to fruition or not, the mere fact that the Padres are looking into the possibility serves as a prominent reminder of the type of frenetic dealing that has become a hallmark of the Preller-led Padres this time of year. With several holes on the roster, a tight payroll and a farm system that could work against them, the stage appears to be set for another July of creative dealing from the Padres.

Mariners Have Shown Interest In Ryan McMahon

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D-backs slugger and former Mariner Eugenio Suárez is reported to be the Mariners’ top trade target, but he’s not a surefire bet to be available with Arizona on the periphery of the NL Wild Card chase. Seattle wouldn’t put all of its eggs in one basket anyhow — Suárez would have several motivated bidders trying to acquire him — so it’s not a big surprise to see Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post report that the Mariners are among the teams to show interest in Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon.

[Related: Seattle Mariners Trade Deadline Outlook]

The 30-year-old McMahon wouldn’t bring the same type of power as Suárez, but he’s younger with a much better glove and is signed for an additional two seasons. After a brutal start to his season and a poor final few months in 2024, McMahon has bounced back to his previous form. Dating back to May 1, he’s slashing .249/.333/.478 with 14 home runs, a dozen doubles and a triple. His 11.2% walk rate is strong, though a 29.7% strikeout rate in that span and a lengthy history of sub-par contact skills does present one concern.

McMahon does have pronounced home/road splits. He entered play Wednesday batting .253/.368/.500 at Coors Field and .189/.265/.324 on the road. He’d hardly be the first player to struggle on the road while playing home games at altitude and then even things out when traded to a more neutral setting, though. Prominent names like Matt Holliday, Dexter Fowler and Nolan Arenado (among others) have shown considerable home/road splits while playing for the Rockies before going on to find plenty of success elsewhere. That said, going from Coors Field to Seattle’s T-Mobile Park — perhaps the most pitcher-friendly setting in MLB — would potentially be a rude awakening.

McMahon has been particularly hot of late, hitting in six straight games and batting .345/.406/.848 with four homers and two doubles across his past eight contests. (That does not include the walk he drew in his first plate appearance of today’s game.) He’s being paid $12MM in 2025 — with about $4.32MM yet to be paid out — and is owed $16MM per year in 2026-27.

Although McMahon isn’t as complete a player as Matt Chapman, his remaining contract (which covers his age-31 and age-32 seasons) is a fraction of the six-year, $151MM contract Chapman signed starting in his age-32 season. McMahon’s contract looks affordable by comparison, and while much of the Mariners’ activity over the past two years has been dictated by ownership mandates to scale back payroll, ownership is reportedly willing to bump the payroll at this summer’s deadline.

Third base has been a weak spot for the Mariners throughout the season. Rookie Ben Williamson has been the primary option for Seattle, providing strong defense but virtually nothing in terms of power or on-base skills. The 24-year-old Williamson, Seattle’s second-round pick in 2023, rushed to the majors after just 14 games in Triple-A. He’s hitting .256/.289/.315 with one home run in his first 268 major league plate appearances.

Entering the season, the hope was that veteran switch-hitter Jorge Polanco — who re-signed as a free agent over the winter — would transition from second base to third base. Knee and side injuries have left Polanco as a designated hitter more often than not, however. His bat has more than held up its end of the equation, evidenced by a strong .254/.313/.462 slash with 15 homers and a tiny 14.2% strikeout rate. Polanco has played just 113 innings in the field this season, however.

[Related: Colorado Rockies Trade Deadline Outlook]

As for the Rockies, they tend not to be particularly active on the summer trade market even in non-contending seasons. They have a reputation for holding players well past the point at which their trade value reaches its apex. That’s arguably already happened with McMahon, though his resurgent play since May has done plenty of work to rebuild some of the value he’d lost over the past three to four months of play.

Saunders is the latest of several prominent reporters to suggest that with the Rockies bottoming out so significantly in 2025, they could well be more amenable to trading some veteran players over the next eight days. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote similarly today, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested as much earlier in the month as well.

Padres Have Discussed Dylan Cease With Several Teams

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The Padres have spoken to several teams about the possibility of trading right-hander Dylan Cease, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Cubs, Mets and multiple AL East clubs have had some talks with San Diego, per the report. Separately, Olney’s colleague Jeff Passan also suggests that Cease has come up in trade talks, though that’s framed as other clubs approaching the Padres and not expressly being turned away.

Whether the Padres have initiated talks or whether they’re simply hearing other teams out, the possibility of trading Cease speaks to multiple challenges for San Diego over the next week-plus. The Friars’ farm system is not particularly well regarded beyond its top two prospects, and the team is ostensibly reluctant to part with either Leo De Vries or Ethan Salas. That leaves the Padres with a fairly light slate of prospects from which to deal.

Talks surrounding Cease could also reflect what looked to be the case in the late stages of the offseason: the Padres’ baseball operations staff does not appear to have much financial firepower at its disposal. The new-look ownership structure hasn’t been as keen to spend as the late Peter Seidler. They’re still well north of the luxury tax threshold, but the team’s actual cash payroll is down considerably from its 2023 peak.

The Padres’ late-offseason dealings put a spotlight on that lack of resources. Nick Pivetta’s four-year, $55MM deal pays him just $4MM in the first season of the contract. Catcher Elias Diaz ($3.5MM), lefty Kyle Hart ($1.5MM) and outfielders Connor Joe ($1MM) and Jason Heyward ($1MM) signed one-year contracts valued at a combined $7MM. Their other late additions included minor league deals for Yuli Gurriel, Gavin Sheets, Jose Iglesias and Martin Maldonado. Each cracked the big league roster at the end of camp, but Iglesias’ $3MM base salary was the largest of the bunch.

Trading Cease while still aiming to contend might seem counterintuitive, but the Padres could accomplish multiple goals, in theory. He’s an impending free agent who’s earning $13.75MM this season with about $4.95MM of that sum yet to be paid out. Trimming nearly $5MM off the books would create a decent bit of money to pursue upgrades behind the plate, in left field and perhaps on the bench — all areas of need. It’d also net some prospects of note, any of whom could subsequently be flipped to another team to address various needs on the roster.

Of course, moving Cease would also further deplete a perilously thin rotation. Michael King has been out nearly two months due to shoulder inflammation, and Joe Musgrove is out all season following last year’s Tommy John surgery. With Cease out of the picture, the Padres would be left with Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Stephen Kolek, Randy Vasquez and rookie Ryan Bergert in the rotation — at least until King returns. It’s not a great group, and the depth beyond it is shaky at best.

To that end, Olney further reports that even while discussing Cease, the Padres have been in contact with the Orioles about right-hander Charlie Morton, who’s widely expected to be traded between now and July 31. Morton’s $15MM salary is even larger than that of Cease, so presumably the Padres would be interested only if the Orioles were to include cash to offset a portion of the deal (likely enough so San Diego would owe a good bit less than the $4.95MM left on Cease’s contract).

Morton got out to a terrible start this season but has posted terrific numbers over his past 12 appearances overall (even including a seven-run hiccup his last time out). Since May 10, he’s posted a 3.47 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate, a 7.7% walk rate and a 44.2% grounder rate. Metrics like FIP (3.30) and SIERA (3.49) generally support his resurgence. Over that span, Morton has actually outpitched Cease, though Cease’s power arsenal, track record and sustained ability to miss bats would still hold greater appeal to most clubs on the lookout for rotation upgrades.

Cease hasn’t had his best season but has been generally solid since a catastrophic nine-run drubbing in his third start of the year. Dating back to April 14, Cease has pitched 99 innings with a 4.09 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate. His swinging-strike rate in that time is nearly 17% — a massive mark — and he’s averaging better than 97 mph on his heater. He’s had some struggles with runners on base this year and at least a little bit of batted-ball misfortune (.319 compared to his .290 mark entering the season), but Cease is still throwing hard, missing bats at a plus rate and limiting walks at an average clip. For any of the Cubs, Mets or any AL East contender, he’d very likely step right into a theoretical playoff rotation, barring a late injury or substantial downturn in results.

Guardians Open To Offers On Shane Bieber

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The Guardians have made rehabbing right-hander Shane Bieber available, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has yet to pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April but is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

Bieber, 30, signed a two-year, $26MM contract to remain with Cleveland after that ill-timed injury. He can opt out of the contract at season’s end, which only further muddies a complicated trade scenario. Bieber is owed the balance of a $10MM salary and at least a $4MM buyout on a $16MM player option for the upcoming season.

Cleveland had hoped that Bieber would be back on a big league mound by now. He originally embarked on a minor league rehab assignment on May 31 but felt some soreness that caused the Guards to pull him from that rehab stint and slow his return process. That initial soreness didn’t prove to be any kind of significant recurrence of injury, as Bieber’s now back on the mound. He made the second start of his current rehab stint last night with High-A Lake County. He’s pitched five innings and held opponents to a run with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio on this rehab stint. Bieber also tossed 2 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts back in that May 31 appearance.

Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his injury. He tossed 12 shutout innings and struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. Also encouraging was the fact that his average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging. It was a sample of just two starts, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Bieber at this point. Scouts figure to keep a particularly close eye on his remaining rehab starts as a result. Not only is Bieber recovering from Tommy John surgery, he’d pitched with diminished results in 2023 due to elbow troubles. He tossed 128 innings in 2023 and logged a 3.80 ERA with a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate.

At his best, Bieber is a frontline starter capable of dominating any lineup in baseball. From 2020-22, he pitched 374 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Those rate stats all range from good to excellent, and fielding-independent metrics were similarly bullish on Bieber’s success (2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA). He looked like more of a third or fourth starter in 2023 while working with career-low velocity, and now he’s coming off a major surgery with at least one minor setback. He’s an enigma, to say the least.

The player option for the 2026 season makes him all the more difficult to value. If Bieber is activated within the next two to three weeks and pitches even competently down the stretch, he’s sure to decline a net $12MM player option in favor of a return to free agency. If he pitches poorly and/or encounters further injury woes, he’d likely pick up that player option and stick his new club with a $16MM salary it’d prefer not to have on the books.

Given all those layers, the Guardians may not extract the sort of return that would typically be commensurate with a brand-name pitcher of this caliber. Bieber stands as a high-upside play but one who comes with plenty of risk as well. A trade shouldn’t be seen as a given, particularly not with Cleveland riding a three-game win streak that’s put them back to .500 and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the American League. But Bieber’s next rehab outing and the Guardians’ play in the next week merit a watchful eye, as a healthy Bieber could be a major boon for a contender’s staff — whether that’s the Guardians themselves or a theoretical trade partner.

Cardinals Designate Erick Fedde For Assignment

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11:22am: The Cardinals have announced the moves.

11:17am: The Cardinals have designated struggling right-hander Erick Fedde for assignment, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. Right-hander Andre Granillo is being recalled from Triple-A Memphis to take his spot on the roster, MLB.com’s John Denton adds.

A year ago, the resurgent Fedde was one of the most sought-after arms on the trade market. A former first-round pick and top prospect with the Nationals, he’d struggled for several injury-marred years in the majors before reinventing himself with an MVP-winning season in the Korea Baseball Organization. The White Sox signed him to a two-year, $15MM contract and received excellent value, as Fedde posted a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts for them before being traded in a three-team deal that brought Miguel Vargas and prospects Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez. The Cardinals parted ways with utilityman Tommy Edman.

Fedde was solid but not quite as effective for the Cardinals down the stretch. Heading into the 2025 season, his $7.5MM salary looked like a bargain after he’d posted a combined 3.30 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate in 177 1/3 innings between St. Louis and Chicago. With the Cardinals announcing an intent to take a step back to focus on player development and give young players an opportunity, Fedde looked like an obvious offseason trade candidate.

Instead, St. Louis wound up holding onto Fedde in hopes of getting some first-half innings and flipping him at the deadline. It now represents a missed opportunity. The Cards still have five days to trade him for a nominal return, but the legitimate trade value that Fedde had in the offseason has dried up with a shaky season that’s had a few highlights but far more low points.

Even early in the season, when Fedde was sporting a solid earned run average, his rate stats told another story. The right-hander’s strikeout rate has plummeted this season, while his walk rate has crept up. Fedde was masterful in a May 9 shutout of the Nationals, wherein he allowed just six hits and no walks against eight punchouts. He followed that with 5 2/3 shutout frames against a tough Phillies lineup, albeit with four walks against three strikeouts.

Much of the season has been a tightrope walk for Fedde due to his worsened command and diminished ability to miss bats, but the wheels really came off beginning in late June. Fedde served up seven runs in back-to-back starts on June 25 and 30. His results have only worsened since. Over his past five starts, he’s been shelled for 26 runs on 33 hits and 11 walks with only eight strikeouts through 17 2/3 innings.

Fedde is being paid $7.5MM this season. He still has about $2.7MM of that sum yet to be paid out. No team is going to claim his salary if he’s placed on waivers. The Cardinals will have five days to try to trade him, though they’ve presumably already been looking for matches and haven’t lined up on anything. If they’re willing to eat the rest of that salary, perhaps a team will take a low-risk flier on Fedde, but there’s a real chance he’ll simply be released. At that point, he’d be free to sign with any team and would only cost his new club the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the major league roster.

With Fedde out the door, the Cardinals will clear a permanent rotation spot for prospect Michael McGreevy. The 2021 first-rounder has pitched 28 1/3 MLB frames this year and logged a 3.49 ERA with a minuscule 2.7% walk rate. McGreevy’s 15.2% strikeout rate is one of the lowest in baseball, although he’s punched out 25.5% of his Triple-A opponents, so there’s clear upside for more missed bats. Add in that he’s also sporting a tidy 4.9% walk rate in Memphis, and it’s not hard to see why St. Louis is keen on getting him a look. The hope had been to trade Fedde for some minor league talent but that seems quite unlikely given the extent of the veteran’s struggles.

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