Rays Showing Interest In Several Veteran Starters
The Rays’ rotation has been ravaged by injury in 2023, with starters Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs both going down for the season already. Shane Baz underwent Tommy John surgery last September, and Shane McClanahan has been out since June 30 with a back injury (though he’s expected back tonight). Tyler Glasnow is healthy at the moment but has been limited to just nine starts this season. Southpaw Josh Fleming hit the injured list on June 3 and has since been moved to the 60-day IL.
Tampa Bay remains in first place despite that slate of health woes, but the rotation currently consists of McClanahan, Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. The Rays have had their share of bullpen games this season already, and with so many of their arms done for the year, they’re in the market for veteran rotation help. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they’ve already spoken to the White Sox about a potential deal for Lance Lynn, and they’ve also “extensively” scouted Cardinals rental arms Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM contract that contains a $18MM club option (or $1MM buyout) for the 2024 season. The 2021 All-Star finished in the top six of American League Cy Young voting each season from 2019-21 but is currently in the midst of one of the toughest seasons of his career. Through 108 1/3 frames, Lynn owns a 6.06 ERA, due largely to an MLB-high 24 home runs allowed.
While the long ball has plagued Lynn at career-worst levels in 2023, he’s still missing bats at a high level and limiting walks at a passable rate. Lynn’s 27.7% strikeout rate ranks tenth in the Majors among qualified starters, and his 14% swinging-strike rate ranks eighth. His 8.3% walk rate is just narrowly higher than the 7.9% average among big league starters. Metrics like xFIP (3.82) and SIERA (3.79) feel he’s outperformed his baseline ERA.
Lynn is being paid $18.5MM this season and, as of this writing, has about $7.6MM remaining on the deal — plus the $1MM buyout on next year’s option. Despite the poor results, Nightengale notes that the asking price on the righty remains high — likely reflective of both the limited number of starters available and the broad number of teams who believe Lynn’s strong K-BB profile makes him an appealing rebound candidate.
As for the Cardinals’ starters, both are rather straightforward trade candidates. The Cards sit in last place in the National League Central and are 11.5 games back not only in the division but also in the National League Wild Card chase. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak is already turning his focus to the 2024 season, and the Cardinals already look to be making some changes on the roster, as they’re reportedly set to designate lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today.
Both Montgomery and Flaherty, meanwhile, are set to be free agents following the season. The 30-year-old Montgomery would be a natural candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, but the demand for rotation help should create a trade return that outpaces that value. In 18 starts and 103 innings this year, Montgomery boasts a 3.23 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate (roughly average for a starting pitcher), a strong 6.6% walk rate and an above-average 45.9% ground-ball rate. He’s earning $10MM on the season — about $4.1MM of which is yet to be paid out.
Flaherty, 27, was one of the NL’s best young starters in 2018-19 but has been plagued by injuries for much of the past few seasons. He’s been healthy in 2023, making 18 starts and tallying 98 2/3 innings, but this year’s 11.8% walk rate is an alarming mark that represents a continuation of last year’s career-worst levels (13.2%). Despite that high level, he has a 4.29 ERA with strikeout and ground-ball rates nearly identical to those of Montgomery. At $5.4MM, he’s earning roughly half the salary of Montgomery and has about $2.2MM still owed to him.
There’s no indication yet that the Rays have had any sort of advanced talks on any of the three, and this trio surely represents just a handful of a larger number of arms Tampa Bay is considering. It stands to reason that they’ll check in on the majority of arms available, particularly those currently playing for concrete sellers like the White Sox and Cardinals. Each of Lynn, Montgomery and Flaherty has a good chance to be moved in the next few weeks, and each will draw interest from a broad range of suitors. The Rays, with a deep farm system and clear postseason ambitions, have the ability and motivation to land just about any starting pitcher they covet; time will tell which direction they go as they continue to survey the market between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
Cardinals To Designate Genesis Cabrera For Assignment
The Cardinals are planning to designate left-handed reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment today, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. They’ll have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers once the move is official.
Cabrera, 26, posted a sharp 3.41 ERA in 92 1/3 innings with the Cards from 2020-21, but he’s never displayed even average command at the MLB level and has struggled over the past two seasons. Dating back to Opening Day 2022, the southpaw carries a 4.82 ERA with a below-average 20.8% strikeout rate and much higher-than-average 11.3% walk rate. Cabrera’s heater averaged 97.9 mph during 2021, arguably his peak season, but that velocity is down two miles per hour from that level in 2023, sitting at 95.9 mph. He’s also been extremely home-run prone dating back to last year, averaging 1.64 home runs per nine innings pitched.
Even with the downturn in velocity and pedestrian strikeout rate over the past two seasons, there’s still some reason to believe Cabrera is capable of more. Averaging roughly 96 mph from the left side is of note, even if that’s down from peak levels, and Cabrera sports a very strong 13.6% swinging-strike rate this season. He’s also induced chases off the plate at an above-average 32.6% clip. There’s little doubt that Cabrera has intriguing raw stuff, and another team may have a different plan to maximize his arsenal.
Beyond his power repertoire, Cabrera is affordable ($950K salary in 2023), controllable and has a minor league option remaining. He entered the current season with just over three years of Major League service time, so he can be controlled through the 2025 campaign. He’s unlikely to fetch a major price in a trade, but another club could view him as an interesting buy-low candidate who could contribute not just this year but for another two seasons.
Cabrera’s DFA figures to be the first of a broad-reaching slate of roster changes for the Cardinals in the next few weeks. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has already suggested that the 2024 season will be his focus at this year’s deadline, and the Cards are expected to at the very least shop rental players like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong and Chris Stratton. Broader-reaching changes are possible — the Cards have a glut of MLB-ready outfielders, for instance — but the Cardinals aren’t expected to trade core players and have given no indication that a larger-scale teardown is coming as a result of this year’s disastrous season.
Padres Acquire Ben Gamel From Rays
The Padres are acquiring minor league outfielder Ben Gamel from the Rays, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Tampa Bay receives cash in return, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).
According to the transaction log at MLB.com, the veteran outfielder was assigned to Triple-A El Paso. Gamel will not immediately occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, as he’d signed a minor league pact with Tampa Bay over the offseason.
The 31-year-old Gamel has had a strong season in Triple-A Durham with the Rays, hitting .276/.402/.463 (120 wRC+) with eight homers, 12 doubles, a triple, four steals, a huge 16.8% walk rate and a 22.8% strikeout rate in 250 plate appearances. He’ll give the Friars an experienced veteran bat who could be up in the Majors and help in a corner outfield spot sooner than later.
Gamel has seen Major League time in each of the past seven seasons, dating back to his 2016 debut with the Yankees. He’s a lifetime .253/.333/.385 hitter (97 wRC+) in just over 2200 plate appearances, and while he’s typically been light on power — career-high 11 homers, .132 career ISO — he’s drawn walks at a strong clip for the majority of his big league tenure (10.2%).
Looking at his career as a whole, Gamel’s track record against right-handed pitching is roughly average. That’s skewed somewhat by some shaky performances earlier in his career, however. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Gamel carries a solid .255/.351/.408 slash against right-handed pitchers — about 12% better than league-average after weighting for his home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. During that time, he’s walked at a stout 13.9% clip in platoon matchups.
The Padres have a righty-heavy lineup and have gotten negligible production out of a thin bench group this season. Their reserve options off the bench currently include catcher Austin Nola and infielder/outfielder options Rougned Odor, Brandon Dixon and Matthew Batten. Odor is the only lefty of the bunch, and his .212/.307/.371 batting line (91 wRC+) in 150 plate appearances hasn’t been much to write home about. Gamel could be a veteran option to step into a bench spot, and if the club eventually decides to reduce struggling Matt Carpenter‘s role or move on from him entirely — the 37-year-old is hitting .173/.300/.314 — then Gamel could have a clearer path to some DH or corner outfield at-bats.
Matt Barnes To Undergo Hip Surgery
Marlins reliever Matt Barnes will undergo femoral acetabular impingement surgery on his left hip at the end of the month, Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald relays (on Twitter). He won’t be cleared to begin running or throwing for three months, so his season is almost certainly over.
The surgery also quite likely puts an end to Barnes’ tenure with Miami. Acquired in a trade that sent lefty Richard Bleier to the Red Sox, the former Boston closer was seen as a buy-low candidate by a Marlins club looking for high-leverage arms in the offseason. Barnes was an All-Star in 2021 and looked headed for a significant payday in free agency when he instead signed a two-year extension to remain in Boston. Things almost immediately went south after he put pen to paper on that $18.75MM deal. In the season’s final six weeks, he was rocked for a dozen runs in just 11 2/3 innings.
The Sox hoped Barnes would bounce back the following season, but things didn’t play out that way. A shoulder injury cost Barnes more than two months of the season, and while his 4.31 ERA when healthy was at least respectable, it’s a far cry from what the Sox hoped for when signing him to that two-year pact. Beyond that, Barnes’ 95.2 mph average fastball and 19.3% strikeout rate were both career-lows — a far cry from the 97 mph he averaged at his peak and the 37.8% strikeout rate he posted in 2021.
In Miami, Barnes pitched 21 1/3 but was tagged for a 5.48 ERA in that time. This year’s 93.6 mph average fastball is a career-low by a wide margin of 1.6 mph. His 7.7% swinging-strike rate is one of the lowest marks among relievers and about half the 14.9% he recorded at his best. The revelation of an injury hardly came as a major surprise given those stark declines, and it’s fair to wonder whether Barnes was ever pitching at 100% this season or whether he was simply trying to gut through the injury.
There’s an $8MM club option for the 2024 season on Barnes’ contract, and although the $2.25MM buyout effectively makes it a net $5.75MM decision, it’s still extremely unlikely the Marlins would pick that third year up. Given the extent of Barnes’ struggles in recent years and now the onset of a notable surgery, he’ll likely be bought out and head to free agency, where he’ll either be a candidate for a low-cost, incentive-laden one-year contract or perhaps even a minor league deal. The status of his recovery will play a large role in determining his earning power, and it obviously can’t be known at this time precisely how it’ll all play out.
Ryan Tepera Expected To Opt Out Of Rangers Deal
Veteran reliever Ryan Tepera has exercised an opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Rangers and is expected to become a free agent, MLBTR has learned. He’d signed there on a minor league pact in mid-June after being released by the Angels.
Signed by the Halos to a two-year, $14MM contract in the 2021-22 offseason, the now-35-year-old Tepera had a solid first year in Anaheim, pitching to a 3.61 ERA with 17 holds, six saves, a 20.3% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 57 1/3 innings. Things went off the rails in year two of the contract, as he was hit hard in 8 2/3 innings before being designated for assignment and released. Tepera yielded seven earned runs on 15 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts during those 10 2/3 innings, and his average fastball had dipped to a career-low 91.8 mph.
It’s been the opposite with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in Round Rock, however. The veteran righty has rattled off eight scoreless innings, punching out a whopping 37.9% of his opponents against a 10.3% walk rate. He’s picked some of that velocity back up, with his heater now back up to 93 mph — the same level at which it sat from 2020-22, when Tepera tossed 139 1/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cubs, White Sox and Halos.
It’s at least mildly surprising that the Rangers apparently don’t feel they have a big league spot for Tepera, given that performance and his broader track record. In parts of nine big league seasons, he’s tallied 363 1/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball, regularly working in leverage roles — particularly in recent seasons. The Rangers recently acquired Aroldis Chapman to shore up the back end of their bullpen and have also brought familiar faces Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush back to the organization on minor league deals, but given this year’s struggles from expected contributors like Joe Barlow, Jonathan Hernandez, Taylor Hearn and John King, there’s still some need for relief pitching in Arlington. Of course, Texas GM Chris Young is very likely still in the market for additional relief pitching.
However things play out in Texas, it appears Tepera won’t be a part of the solution at this time. He’ll hit the market in search of another opportunity. With upwards of half the league in the market for bullpen help, a nice showing in Triple-A and a strong track record, he ought to draw interest from multiple clubs as he looks for a return to the big leagues. The Angels are on the hook for the remainder of Tepera’s $7MM salary for the current season, so any team that signs him would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.
The White Sox’ Quietly Dominant Trade Chip
Earlier in the week, I took a look at how the Cubs had scored big in minor league free agency and are now left with the quandary of what to do with Mark Leiter Jr. — a breakout reliever at age 32 with three years of remaining club control beyond the current season. They could sell high or hold onto him in hopes that the breakout is both legitimate and sustainable into his mid-30s. Across town, the White Sox had similarly good fortune in minor league free agency, but there’s no question of how they’ll proceed in the coming weeks.
At some point between now and Aug. 1, it’s extraordinarily likely Keynan Middleton will be traded.
Angels fans are surely familiar with the 29-year-old Middleton, who looked like a bullpen mainstay in Anaheim earlier in his career before injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery — derailed his trajectory. Fans of other clubs, however, may have never had Middleton on their radars and might be surprised to learn that he’s in his final season of club control and will be a free agent this winter. Middleton collected five years of service time prior to the 2023 season — much of it coming on the Major League injured list — despite entering the current season with just 143 2/3 big leagues innings under his belt. As such, he’s a pure rental on a fourth-place White Sox team whose GM has been candid about the team’s chances and the possibility of selling at the deadline.
At the time of his signing, Middleton didn’t command much attention. It was a minor league deal for a reliever issued by a club that had several high-priced veterans in the bullpen (Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Aaron Bummer, Jake Diekman). Middleton hadn’t had big league success since his initial run with the Angels in 2017-19 and looked like a pure depth move. Even when the Sox selected him to the 40-man roster in mid-April, at a time when both Hendriks and Kelly were on the injured list, it seemed like he could just be a short-term stopgap until the Sox got healthier. And perhaps that was indeed the initial plan, but Middleton has become an indispensable member of the bullpen and emerged as a legitimate trade chip.
It’s only 32 innings of work so far, but the right-hander owns a tidy 3.09 ERA on the season. That’s a solid number on its own, but the underlying numbers are even more encouraging. Middleton averaged 94.8 mph with his heater in a short look with the D-backs last year but is back up to 96 mph in 2023 — much healthier and much closer to the 96.8 mph he averaged with the Angels prior to surgery.
There’s far more to like about Middleton than a simple resurgence in velocity. He’s fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents, issued walks at a slightly better-than-average 8.3% clip and racked up grounders at a huge 56.4% rate. Even more impressive are his 17.8% swinging-strike rate and 38.4% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate — top-of-the-scale numbers that rank sixth and 14th, respectively, among the 338 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings during the 2023 season. This has been the best stretch of Middleton’s career, and while the sample is small, he’s arguably been one of the sport’s best relievers in 2023.
The one knock is his 1.41 HR/9 mark, but that’s driven in part by a cozy home ballpark and a 26.3% homer-to-flyball rate that’s bound to regress; in the past decade there have only been 38 instances (out of a possible 4550) where a pitcher with at least 30 innings pitched has run a homer-to-flyball rate that high. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize in the 12-13% range for most pitchers over a large enough sample. Since 2013, the league-average homer-to-flyball rate for pitchers has fallen between 9.5% (a clear outlier season in 2014) and 15.7% (during the juiced ball season of 2019).
Skeptics might point out that Middleton has struggled over the past month, and it’s a valid concern. He’s been tagged for nine earned runs in his past 10 2/3 innings, due largely to yielding four of the five homers he’s surrendered on the season. It’s also worth pointing out, however, that the rest of Middleton’s profile during that time remains largely unchanged. He’s fanned 27.7% of his opponents, walked 8.5% of them and compiled a 55.2% ground-ball rate. Opponents are also averaging just 86.2 mph off the bat against him during that slump; he’s still rarely giving up hard contact — it’s just that a disproportionate amount of the hard contact he has yielded has resulted in a round-tripper. (For what it’s worth, four of the five homers he’s allowed this year have come in his hitter-friendly home park, too.)
There’s some degree of volatility with all relief pitching, however, and this season Middleton has done pretty much everything modern front offices love to see at a better-than-average (often elite) rate. He throws hard, misses bats at elite levels, limits walks at an average clip and ranks in the 94th percentile of pitchers (min. 30 innings) in ground-ball rate. It’s a recipe for success that checks a lot of boxes. Add in that he originally signed on a low-cost minor league deal and would be affordable for even teams with luxury tax concerns, and Middleton only sounds more appealing.
Of course, given the limited track record coming into the season and the fact that he’s a pure rental, Middleton isn’t going to fetch any club a true top-tier prospect on his own. But we regularly see teams pay relatively steep prices for relievers at the deadline, even for rental arms. The demand for Middleton should be strong, and on his own he should still be able to net the Sox a solid prospect or perhaps a younger player with some club control but no real spot on his current team’s roster.
There are multiple paths for the White Sox to explore as they mull their options with Middleton, but nearly all roads seem like they’ll lead to a trade of some sort. And while Middleton might first seem underwhelming to the fanbase that acquires him, he could wind up being one of the most impactful arms moved at this year’s deadline if he can sustain this level of pitching in the season’s final two and a half months.
Braves Claim Dalton Guthrie, Place Nick Anderson On 60-Day IL
The Braves have claimed outfielder Dalton Guthrie off waivers from the Giants, per announcements from both clubs. Guthrie has been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. In a corresponding 40-man roster move, the Braves placed right-hander Nick Anderson on the 60-day injured list with a shoulder strain. San Francisco designated Guthrie for assignment last week.
Guthrie, 27, was only just acquired from the Phillies three weeks ago but quickly lost his roster spot when the Giants added Mauricio Llovera to the roster. Guthrie made his major league debut with the Phils last year and hit .333/.500/.476 in 28 plate appearances. But in 28 more trips to the plate this year, he hit just .167/.286/.208. He’s generally hit well at the Triple-A level, slashing .296/.363/.467 between last season and this one for a wRC+ of 117.
He’s also shown some flashes of speed, including swiping 21 bags in Triple-A last year, though he was caught six times. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots and has also lined up at the three infield positions to the left of first base. He still has a full slate of options, one of which he’s currently using here in 2023, and can potentially serve as a versatile depth piece for Atlanta for the foreseeable future.
Anderson, 33, has occasionally looked like an elite reliever but has frequently been waylaid by injuries. He posted a 3.32 ERA between the Marlins and Rays in 2019 and then dropped that all the way to 0.55 in 2020, striking out 44.8% of batters faced in the shortened season.
He would hardly pitch in the next two years, however. He was diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL during Spring Training in 2021 and didn’t initially go under the knife. He tossed six innings that year but eventually underwent an internal brace procedure in October, which wiped out his 2022.
He was non-tendered by Tampa last year and landed with Atlanta. He has been having a nice bounceback season up until this point, making 35 appearances with a 3.06 ERA, striking out 25.5% of opponents while walking 6.4% and getting grounders on 41.7% of balls in play. He moved into a leverage role with Atlanta, earning 15 holds this year. However, the fact that he’s been immediately placed on the 60-day IL suggests that his shoulder strain is fairly significant. Anderson will now be ineligible to return until early September.
Dodgers Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito
The Dodgers are among the teams showing interest in White Sox righty Lucas Giolito, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a natural fit, given the Dodgers’ need for rotation reinforcements and the White Sox’ status as likely sellers of short-term pieces. Giolito is a free agent at season’s end.
Giolito, who’ll turn 29 tomorrow, figures to be of interest to a wide variety of contending clubs. He’s in the midst of a strong season, is earning a $10.4MM salary this season, and has a strong track record dating back to his 2019 breakout. Similarly, the Dodgers figure to cast a wide net as they survey the trade market for starting pitching help. While it’s certainly of note that they’ve shown some interest in Giolito, there’s also no indication that there have been any advanced talks for the righty or that he, in particular, is being pursued more aggressively than the many other starters expected to popular the trade market. In some regards, it’d actually be more surprising to learn that the Dodgers weren’t interested in Giolito, given how logical the pairing is.
Los Angeles’ starting staff has been ravaged by injuries this season. The Dodgers have already lost Dustin May for the season (flexor surgery), and they’ve endured lengthy absences from each of Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and struggling offseason signee Noah Syndergaard. Prospect Ryan Pepiot won the fifth starter’s job in camp this spring but suffered an oblique injury at the end of camp that has kept him out for the entire first half. Ace Clayton Kershaw hit the injured list late last month due to discomfort in his left shoulder. They knew coming into the year that Walker Buehler would be out until at least September after undergoing Tommy John surgery on Aug. 23 last summer.
The Dodgers have tapped into their pitching-rich system to patch things over, already calling up top prospects Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone for their big league debuts. Miller and Sheehan are both in the rotation at the moment, as is 26-year-old righty Michael Grove, who entered the ’23 season with just 29 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Grove has been tagged for a 6.89 ERA, however, struggling at a similar level to the previously mentioned Syndergaard (7.16 ERA in 55 1/3 innings).
Giolito isn’t missing bats at the same level as his 2019-20 peak, when he posted a massive 32.7% strikeout rate, but his results are in line with his best prior seasons. He’s sitting on a 3.45 ERA with a strong 25.3% strikeout rate and similarly impressive 7.4% walk rate. With the exception of last year’s 4.90 ERA, which looks like a clear outlier, Giolito has posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 every season since 2019. Overall, he carries a 3.80 ERA in his past 701 2/3 big league innings. The right-hander is also averaging just under six innings per start in 2023, so he’d help give a break to the bullpen of any team to which he’s traded.
The White Sox figure to seek a strong return in any trade for Giolito. He’s one of the top arms on the market — arguably the top arm — and is a clear qualifying offer candidate at season’s end if they don’t trade him. As a 29-year-old free agent with a strong and durable track record, Giolito would be a slam dunk to reject that offer and hit the open market in search of a long-term, likely nine-figure deal. In the event that he signed elsewhere, the White Sox would receive a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B in the 2024 draft (roughly in the mid-70s). In order to trade the righty, the ChiSox would need to feel they’re receiving greater value than the value of that theoretical 2024 draft selection.
Giolito recently landed in the top spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 deadline trade candidates — a reflection both of his on-field value and of the simple likelihood of him being traded in the next 19 days. (He also placed fourth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings late last month.) The South Siders initially only planned to make rental players available, but recent reports have suggested that they’re now open to offers on the majority of their roster, save for the young core of Luis Robert Jr., Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn. In either scenario, Giolito figures to be available and among the likeliest stars to change hands in the next few weeks.
Yordan Alvarez, Jose Urquidy To Begin Rehab Assignments
Slugger Yordan Alvarez and starter Jose Urquidy will begin minor league rehab assignments with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate tomorrow, the team announced. Houston has been without Alvarez for five weeks due to an oblique strain. Urquidy has been out more than two months due to shoulder troubles. Alvarez figures to be the first of the pair back to the active roster; Urquidy hasn’t pitched since late April and will surely require multiple rehab starts with full rest between them before reemerging as a rotation option. Still, it’s welcome news for an injury-plagued Astros club that is lacking both in the lineup and the rotation at the moment.
In recent weeks, general manager Dana Brown has publicly declared his two top needs at the trade deadline to be a left-handed bat and a starting pitcher. For much of the summer, Brown had suggested the bat was the larger priority, but just yesterday he flipped the script and indicated that pitching help is perhaps an even greater need. That’s understandable, as the ‘Stros have not only been without Urquidy but also Lance McCullers Jr. (season-ending flexor surgery) and Luis Garcia (Tommy John surgery). To top it off, ace Framber Valdez has been pitching through a sprained ankle in recent weeks, while righty Cristian Javier had his most recent start skipped to “give him a breather” after a run of poor results, per Brown.
The looming returns of Alvarez and Urquidy — barring any setbacks during their respective rehab stints — surely doesn’t quell the Astros’ desire to add help in either area. Brown’s comments on his team’s needs were made with full knowledge that both players would be returning at some point before the deadline (or perhaps shortly after, in Urquidy’s case). Even if both could be inserted into the lineup immediately after the break, the Astros would still have glaring needs.
In the rotation, Houston is currently relying on Valdez and a trio of inexperienced arms: top prospect Hunter Brown, swingman Brandon Bielak and rookie J.P. France. Presumably, Javier will rejoin the group after the break, and the Astros have also taken looks at righties Ronel Blanco and Shawn Dubin — both currently in Triple-A. There’s minimal depth beyond that group, and France’s strong 3.26 ERA to date isn’t supported by his shakier under-the-surface numbers. Most of the team’s young arms are also already nearing last year’s season-long workload; their innings could present concerns in the final 72 games.
Adding Alvarez and his characteristically excellent .277/.388/.589 batting line (and 17 homers) back into the lineup will be an obvious boon, but the Astros likely need more help than that. Jose Altuve is back on the injured list due to an oblique strain of his own, and Houston hitters have been a middle-of-the-pack group overall. The Astros rank 10th in the Majors in runs scored (417), 17th in batting average (.247), 19th in on-base percentage (.316) and 14th in slugging percentage (.407). The only left-handed bat in the lineup with Alvarez out has been outfielder Kyle Tucker. The hope had been that Michael Brantley would make his season debut soon, but manager Dusty Baker revealed earlier this month that the veteran hitter had “plateaued” in his efforts to make it back from 2022 shoulder surgery; a timetable for his return remains unclear.
Angels Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Nolan Schanuel
The Angels have agreed to terms with first-round pick Nolan Schanuel, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America. He’ll receive the full slot value of $5.253MM for his No. 11 overall selection.
Schanuel, 21, is a left-handed-hitting first baseman whose bat is his carrying card. In three years at Florida Atlantic University, the 6’4″ infielder turned in a .386/.516/.698 batting line — highlighted by a comical .447/.615/.868 slash with 19 homers, 18 doubles and four triples in 289 plate appearances this past season. He draws particularly strong reviews for his preternatural contact abilities and plate discipline; Schanuel struck out in just seven percent of his plate appearances in his three years at FAU while walking at a 17% clip. In his final season of college ball, he posted a ridiculous 71-to-14 walk-to-strikeout ratio — a mammoth 24.6% walk rate against just a 4.8% strikeout rate.
Despite the tantalizing offensive profile, Schanuel was ranked a bit lower than his ultimate selection on most prospect lists heading into the draft. Keith Law of The Athletic listed him as the draft’s No. 18 prospect, while Schanuel sat 22nd at ESPN, 26th at MLB.com, 30th at Baseball America and 33rd at FanGraphs. That’s largely due to defensive limitations — Schanuel is a pure first baseman with an outside chance handling some corner outfield work — and a hit-over-power profile. Some scouting reports give Schanuel the chance to eventually develop plus power, but most peg him for average or above-average pop (50- to 55-grade on the 20-80 scale). Presumably, based on this selection, the Angels are in the camp that believes he can reach that plus power ceiling.
Schanuel’s advanced approach gives him the potential to sprint through the minor leagues and contribute at the MLB level in short order. Kiley McDaniel’s scouting report at ESPN suggests he could be in the Majors within a year’s time — a much swifter path to the big leagues than most prospects in a given draft class.
The Angels have had uncertainty at first base in each of the past two seasons, as Jared Walsh has been unable to replicate his 2021 breakout (due largely to health troubles). Schanuel gives them a potentially fast-tracked prospect who can provide sound defense and at least average power and speed — all while excelling at putting the ball in play and getting on base.