Steve Adams | MLB Trade Rumors

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2018 at 5:09pm CDT

The final entry in MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is (obviously) rather late to the party this year. My apologies to Orioles fans for the delay. I made an error when we were determining who on the MLBTR staff would write which Outlook this winter, and the result was that the Orioles Outlook regrettably slipped through the cracks. Thankfully (or perhaps not if you’re an Orioles fan), it’s been a rather quiet offseason in Baltimore for the new front office thus far, leaving a pretty wide slate of possibilities to explore. Here’s a look at where things stand in Baltimore as a rebuild that has been a long time coming is in its nascent stage.

Guaranteed Contracts

Chris Davis, 1B: $92MM through 2022 ($6MM annually deferred, without interest, all the way through 2037)
Alex Cobb, RHP: $43MM through 2021 ($4.5MM annually deferred through 2032)
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF/DH: $13.5MM through 2019
Andrew Cashner, RHP: $8MM through 2019 (plus incentives; deal includes $10MM vesting option that will trigger with 187 IP in 2019)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM

Free Agents

Adam Jones, Tim Beckham (non-tendered), Caleb Joseph (non-tendered)

[Baltimore Orioles depth chart | Baltimore Orioles payroll outlook]

The Orioles won more games than any team in the American League over a five-year span from 2012-16, but even toward the end of that run, there were some cracks beginning to show in the foundation. The team’s core was largely headed for free agency at the same time, the rotation often appeared thin even when things were going well in Baltimore, and owner Peter Angelos made the bizarre decision to wholly ignore international amateurs in free agency (while simultaneously re-signing Chris Davis to an albatross contract), which didn’t exactly position his front office for long-term success.

The result was perhaps more catastrophic than even the most pessimistic observers could have forecast. Baltimore lost a stunning 115 games in 2018. Orioles pitchers yielded 270 more runs than the team’s feeble offense could generate. In the field, the Orioles’ collective -94 Defensive Runs Saved was the third-worst mark among MLB teams. Nearly anything that could go wrong in Baltimore did go wrong, and now-former GM Dan Duquette saw the writing on the wall this summer when he gutted the roster in advance of the non-waiver trade deadline. Gone were Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Darren O’Day and Kevin Gausman. Adam Jones, too, would have been shipped out had he not invoked his no-trade rights.

Months later, it’d be Duquette who was shown the door, along with longtime manager Buck Showalter, as Lou and John Angelos (the sons of Peter Angelos who have taken a prominent role in team control over the past year) opted to clean house from top to bottom. Newly minted general manager Mike Elias was plucked from an Astros organization that has long been on the cutting edge of data-driven baseball operations decisions, and Elias subsequently hired Brandon Hyde away from the Cubs (another progressive organization) as his new skipper. Former Astros executive Sig Mejdal has joined Elias in the Baltimore front office as an assistant general manager, while incumbent farm director Brian Graham and scouting director Gary Rajsich were ousted from the organization as well.

So where does the new-look front office turn as it looks to bring about the next wave of competitive baseball in Baltimore? Elias will no doubt be aggressive in adding to his analytics department, his international scouting staff and player development department as he looks to serve as the architect for a more modern organizational infrastructure. Most of those additions won’t be headline-grabbing news and won’t be of particular interest even to some O’s fans (let alone the broader base of MLB fans), but those will nonetheless be critical steps in a process that should span several years.

Looking at the roster, Duquette’s regime acted fairly aggressively in shipping out trade assets at the deadline, leaving the Orioles with few pieces to legitimately dangle on the trade market. Dylan Bundy would be of interest to other teams given his remaining three seasons of control, but he finished the season extremely poorly, and it doesn’t seem likely that the O’s would sell low on him. The last thing Elias wants to do as an incoming GM is to trade a longtime top prospect only to watch him break out in a new setting, and a strong first half or even a strong 2019 season on the whole would enhance Bundy’s trade value.

Alex Cobb also seems unlikely to be moved, with the $43MM he’s owed still looming large. Baltimore could perhaps eat a notable portion of that remaining sum in an effort to clear that ill-fated contract from the books, though that won’t be an easy sell. Cobb did pitch more effectively after the All-Star break, but his strikeout rate in the second half actually went down slightly (from 6.1 to 5.9 K/9) as his walk rate increased (from 2.3 to 2.7 BB/9). He allowed less hard contact and fewer home runs, but the O’s would probably need to eat half the contract to even find a taker. Andrew Cashner is a similarly unappealing trade asset, and if we were all impressed that Jerry Dipoto managed to shed the remainder of Robinson Cano’s contract, we’d have to consider it a legitimate miracle if Elias somehow found anyone to absorb a decent chunk of the Chris Davis contract. There may be a Trumbo taker out there if the Orioles agree to eat $9-10MM in salary, but the return wouldn’t be meaningful.

The O’s do have one particularly appealing trade chip, however, in the form of presumptive 2019 closer Mychal Givens. He may not be an elite reliever, but Givens is a hard-throwing (soon to turn) 29-year-old with three seasons of club control remaining and a strong 10.3 K/9 mark across the past three years. His 3.99 ERA in 2018 was elevated a bit due to a bizarre plummet in his strand rate (64.5 percent in ’18; 76.2 percent career), but Givens does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and missing bats. With a $2MM projected salary in arbitration, he’s affordable for any club in baseball and represents a nice alternative for teams that don’t want to spend $7-8MM+ on an annual basis for free-agent arms. There’s a glut of relief options available for now, but the O’s would be wise to float Givens’ name later in the offseason if there are contending teams who missed their top targets and are underwhelmed with the remnants of the free-agent class.

Frankly, though, the Orioles themselves should look to benefit from that swarm of relievers on the open market. Invariably, there’s a handful of solid bullpen pieces that is left standing each winter, and a rebuilding team like the Orioles is well positioned to add some bargains with an eye toward flipping them to contenders in July. While Baltimore surely wants to see what it has in younger relievers such as Tanner Scott, Cody Carroll, etc., there’s plenty of space in the bullpen to add a veteran or two while still leaving ample opportunity to evaluate in-house options.

The same should be true in the starting rotation. There’s zero sense in Baltimore doing something outlandish like signing Dallas Keuchel, of course, but there’s also good reason to roll the dice on a veteran starter who lingers on the market and is struggling to find a fit. If a Drew Pomeranz or Ervin Santana is available on a cheap one-year contract two months from now, signing a veteran bounceback candidate could eventually yield a summer trade chip and would create some depth to take pressure off younger arms like Josh Rogers, David Hess and Luis Ortiz (among others). At the very least, the O’s should be adding a fairly hefty number of pitchers, both starters and relievers, on minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training.

It’s a similar story in the lineup, where there are few established names. Trey Mancini will get another crack in left field (or at DH if the Orioles move on from Trumbo) and look to bounce back from a disappointing .299 OBP in 2018. Cedric Mullins will get a lengthy audition in center. DJ Stewart could get the same in right field, but there’s room for this team to add a veteran outfielder in the Jon Jay or Cameron Maybin mold for some insurance. The O’s are also the type of team that could afford to buy low on a bounceback candidate like Avisail Garcia in hopes of turning him into a prospect this summer.

Turning to the infield, Davis will be at first base and hoping to rebound to whatever extent possible from his disastrous 2018 struggles. Jonathan Villar could hold some appeal on the trade market after a solid run in Baltimore, but if he stays put, he’ll be in line for a middle-infield spot. His ability to play multiple positions should free up the Orioles to pursue veteran infielders on one-year deals and prioritize overall rather than pigeonholing themselves into finding one player at a specific position; a half season hitting homers at Camden Yards before being flipped to a contender might not sound like a bad plan for a rebound candidate like Brian Dozier, for instance. Renato Nunez may have been intriguing enough following his waiver claim (.275/.336/.445) to earn a longer look at third base. Rule 5 picks Richie Martin and Drew Jackson, too, could figure prominently into the infield mix since the Orioles know they won’t be contending anyhow. Behind the plate, Chance Sisco will eventually need to be given another chance to prove he can be the team’s catcher of the future, and the O’s have both Andrew Susac and Austin Wynns on the 40-man roster as backup options.

Outside of a few salary dumps and perhaps some bargain-bin shopping, it doesn’t figure to be an extremely active winter for Elias, Mejdal and the rest of the Orioles’ front office. It’s always possible that a newly hired executive will be surprisingly active — Jerry Dipoto wasn’t bashful about making trades immediately in Seattle, and A.J. Preller was hyper-aggressive in his first year on the job in San Diego — but the bulk of the heavy lifting from a trade perspective was already completed this past summer. There’s enough uncertainty on the Orioles’ roster that some short-term veteran additions should be expected, but the Angelos family hired Elias knowing that this rebuild was going to be a marathon rather than a sprint.

Blue Jays Sign Matt Shoemaker

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2018 at 3:25pm CDT

3:25pm: Shoemaker will earn an additional $250K if he gets to 150, 160, 170 or 180 innings, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

12:20pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing.

10:24am: Shoemaker can earn an additional $1MM via incentives, Passan tweets, which would push his 2019 earnings up into the same range as his previous arbitration projection.

9:50am: The contract will pay Shoemaker $3.5MM, tweets Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

9:25am: Shoemaker’s guarantee falls in the $3MM to $3.5MM range, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi.

8:51am: The Blue Jays are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract with free-agent righty Matt Shoemaker, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). Toronto has an open spot on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding roster move won’t be necessary. Shoemaker is represented by ISE Baseball.

Shoemaker, 32, was a late addition to the free-agent market on Nov. 30 after the Angels decided to non-tender the oft-injured righty rather than pay him a projected $4.3MM salary in arbitration.Because of that non-tender, he ht the open market with four years, 166 days of Major League service time under his belt, meaning he’ll be controllable through the 2020 season, via arbitration, if he can reestablish himself in Toronto.

A series of forearm strains torpedoed Shoemaker’s 2017-18 seasons, limiting him to just 108 2/3 innings over that two-year span. He wasn’t especially effective in that time, either, pitching to a combined 4.64 ERA (4.62 FIP) with 8.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and an ugly 1.5 HR/9 mark.

That said, there’s also reason for optimism with Shoemaker. Though his 4.94 ERA in 31 innings this past season won’t impress anyone, he averaged a career-high 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings in that brief span and recorded a career-best 13.6 percent swinging-strike rate, as well. Perhaps there’s some small-sample noise at play there, but Shoemaker’s splitter was a demonstrably more effective pitch in his limited time on the mound in his final season with the Halos.

It’s also worth noting, of course, that Shoemaker was a solid mid-rotation starter for the Angels from 2013-16, working to a combined 3.75 ERA (3.76 FIP) with averages of eight strikeouts, 1.9 walks and 1.2 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Shoemaker figures to slot into a rotation that also includes Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and Ryan Borucki, with right-hander Sean Reid-Foley and southpaw Thomas Pannone vying for the fifth spot in new skipper Charlie Montoyo’s starting five.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/28/18

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2018 at 1:23pm CDT

Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the game…

The Giants have signed right-handed reliever Jamie Callahan to a minor league deal and invited him to Major League Spring Training, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The 24-year-old Callahan had a brief stint with the Mets in 2017, during which time he yielded three runs on seven hits and a walk with five strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. Callahan’s 2018 season was torched by injury — he pitched just 8 1/3 innings in Triple-A and allowed nine runs before undergoing shoulder surgery — but his 2017 results between Double-A and Triple-A were quite strong; in a combined 52 innings at those levels, Callahan notched a 2.94 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9. Callahan averaged 95.9 mph on his heater in that brief MLB debut and will give the Giants a cheap, controllable option in the ’pen if he’s able to work his way back from this year’s shoulder woes.

Dallas Keuchel Still Seeking Five-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2018 at 12:51pm CDT

Dallas Keuchel is the top remaining starter on the free-agent market, and though the New Year is nearly upon us, he and agent Scott Boras are still seeking a lofty five-year contract, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The Phillies, according to Morosi, have been in pursuit of Keuchel but aren’t willing to offer him a five-year deal. Two weeks ago, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com had a similar report regarding the Nationals’ interest in Keuchel, writing at the time that the Nats were “leery of giving him the five- or six-year deal he seeks.”

Perhaps the notion of a six-year deal has fallen to the wayside, but even a five-year pact for Keuchel would represent somewhat of a surprise. MLBTR predicted a four-year deal worth $82MM at the outset of free agency, and to this point there are more reports of teams being wary regarding his asking price than of those strongly pursuing the 2015 AL Cy Young winner. Beyond the Phillies and Nationals, the Reds have also been prominently connected to Keuchel, but recent indications are that they’d be reluctant to meet his asking price. The fact that Cincinnati has already added both Alex Wood and Tanner Roark likely lessens their urgency to add a high-profile free agent, as well.

In addition to those three teams, Keuchel has been tied to the Angels, Brewers, Rangers and Padres over the past couple of weeks. He was also linked to the Braves and Blue Jays earlier in the offseason, although those reports were contested fairly quickly.

The Phillies, though, have been previously tied to Keuchel, and it seems there’s still some interest on their part if the asking price eventually comes down. In many ways, it’s a scenario reminiscent of last winter’s Jake Arrieta saga, in which the Phillies were frequently connected to the right-hander (also a Scott Boras client) throughout the winter but only agreed to terms with Arrieta once his asking price dropped to three guaranteed years. Keuchel is a year younger now than Arrieta was last winter, so speculatively speaking, perhaps they’d be a willing to bring in Keuchel on a four-year term — thus guaranteeing his salaries through age 34, just as they did with Arrieta.

While much of the Phillies’ offseason has centered around Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, upgrading the rotation is nonetheless a priority for GM Matt Klentak (as evidenced by Philadelphia’s unsuccessful pursuit of Corbin). Right-hander Aaron Nola broke out as a legitimate No. 1 starter and finished third in NL Cy Young voting this past season, and Arrieta gives the Phillies a solid veteran to follow him in the rotation. Beyond that pairing, the trio of Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez has shown promise at times but still lacks experience. There’s also been longstanding speculation that Velasquez’s eventual home may be in the bullpen rather than the rotation.

Angels Reportedly Interested In David Robertson

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2018 at 10:27am CDT

The Angels have interest in adding right-hander David Robertson to the back of their bullpen, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). As he points out, Angels general manager Billy Eppler is quite familiar with Robertson due to his time as an assistant GM with the Yankees. While Robertson’s reported preference is to pitch in the northeastern part of the country — he’s an Alabama native but now resides in Rhode Island — the Angels could give him the opportunity to pitch in the ninth inning, which could well appeal to the self-represented veteran.

Robertson, 33, has been among the game’s most consistent relievers since emerging as a regular more than a decade ago. He’s totaled at least 60 innings and 60 appearances per season dating back to 2010 and hasn’t been on the disabled list since 2014, when he missed the minimum amount of time due to a mild groin strain. It stands to reason that for a team that has had an overwhelming barrage of injuries throughout the pitching staff, Robertson’s durability and consistency would hold extra appeal.

The Angels have run through a carousel of closers in recent seasons. Blake Parker, Cam Bedrosian, Keynan Middleton, Bud Norris, Huston Street, Andrew Bailey, Fernando Salas and Joe Smith have all logged at least six saves in a single season since 2016, and the Halos haven’t had a consistent ninth-inning presence since Street’s 40-save showing in 2015. Of that bunch, only Middleton (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Bedrosian remain with the organization. Adding Robertson to the mix would give the Angels a much more definitive option at the back end of the ’pen and allow in-house closing candidates like Ty Buttrey, Justin Anderson and Bedrosian to pitch in a setup capacity.

Eppler and his staff have already made a pair of additions to the rotation, bringing both Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill on board last week. Those two signings pushed the Angels’ projected Opening Day payroll to around $163MM, which is more or less in line with the Opening Day payrolls authorized by owner Arte Moreno in each of the past three seasons. Adding Robertson, or virtually any other free agent of note, would push the Angels to a new record in terms of Opening Day payroll, although they finished out the 2016 and 2017 seasons with year-end payrolls in excess of $180MM following trade deadline additions.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 2:31pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Thursday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Market Notes: Cruz, Harper, Kluber, Bauer, Ottavino, Harrison

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 2:20pm CDT

Prior to this morning’s agreement with the Twins, slugger Nelson Cruz received “competitive” offers from both the Rays and Astros, according to Juan Toribio of The Athletic (Twitter link) and Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Specifics aren’t known, but it seems likely that the Twins would’ve had to outbid either by a fairly notable margin, given that the Rays won 90 games last season while the Astros won the 2017 World Series and appeared in a second consecutive American League Championship Series this past season. Minnesota ultimately secured Cruz with a $14.3MM bid that includes a $14MM salary for the 2019 season and a $12MM club option ($300K buyout) for the 2020 campaign. If Houston or Tampa Bay is still keen on adding a notable right-handed bat, there should be numerous options in play. The rebuilding Tigers, for instance, would likely be willing to move Nicholas Castellanos as he enters his final season of club control. The Cardinals, meanwhile, could move Jose Martinez to an American League club that’d be better suited to mask his defensive shortcomings at the DH spot.

Some more notes on the both the trade and free-agent markets…

The Cardinals have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Bryce Harper but have not been rumored to have any meaningful interest in the market’s top free agent. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explored the situation in his latest Q&A with readers, explaining the numerous reasons that the Cardinals feel a pursuit of Harper would differ from their prior pursuits of huge contracts for David Price, Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton. Above all else, it seems that the sizable discrepancy between Harper’s asking price and even those other substantial contracts is a roadblock for the St. Louis front office. The Cards also don’t have the personal connection with Harper that they had after a year of having Heyward in the clubhouse, and they’re generally averse to the leverage that opt-out clauses provide players on lengthy free-agent deals.
In an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com downplayed the possibility of the Indians trading a top starter (video link). “I don’t think it’s particularly likely they move either Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer at this moment,” said Castrovince, citing sources with the Indians. While he cautioned that things can change with a single call or text, the roughly $21MM saved in trades of Yan Gomes, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso has alleviated pressure to pare back payroll from its record levels in a 2018 season that saw the total attendance decline. That, of course, doesn’t mean rumors or conversations surrounding Kluber will cease — they assuredly will not — but it’s worth keeping in mind when parsing the inevitable continuation of Kluber rumblings. More than 18,000 readers voted in last night’s MLBTR poll asking whether Cleveland would actually trade Kluber, and the response was a near-even split (52-48 in favor of Kluber being moved).
The White Sox, Red Sox and Rockies are all maintaining some level of interest in free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. As one of the top relievers on the market, the 33-year-old Ottavino should have no shortage of clubs inquiring about his services, though the asking price on top-end bullpen arms could prove prohibitive for some clubs. To this point, Jeurys Familia (three years, $30MM), Joe Kelly (three years, $25MM) and Andrew Miller (two years, $25MM) are among the relievers MLBTR ranked in Ottavino’s tier of free agency to have cashed in quite nicely. Given his 2.43 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.82 SIERA and 13.0 K/9 mark, Ottavino figures to have a fairly high ask, as well. The interest from each of the three teams listed by Morosi has been previously reported, and there are some issues with some of the fits. Adding Ottavino, for instance, could push the Red Sox back into the top tier of the luxury tax bracket. And the Rockies spent more than $100MM on their ’pen last winter, which could make them reluctant to add a fourth reliever on the type of multi-year contract Ottavino should ultimately command.
Heyman tweets that infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison has current interest from the Nationals, Reds, Rangers, Giants and Brewers, and he could ultimately generate interest from teams like the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers — depending on how their pursuits of the market’s top free agents pans out. (Presumably, the Phillies or Yankees would have interest in the event that either failed to land Manny Machado.) Harrison would give the Nats a potential regular option at second base, while the Rangers are in need of a third baseman following the trade of Jurickson Profar. Joe Panik’s stock is down in San Francisco, and the Brewers, too, are in need of an everyday option at either second or third (depending on where they play Travis Shaw in 2019). The fit for the Reds is a bit more muddied, as Harrison would appear to be more of a bench option there, though it’s worth noting that he is a Cincinnati native.

Nationals Sign Anibal Sanchez

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 12:50pm CDT

The Nationals on Thursday announced the signing of free-agent righty Anibal Sanchez, to a two-year contract with a club option for a third season. Sanchez is said to be guaranteed $19MM on the contract, which reportedly contains some relatively minimal deferrals. Sanchez is represented by agent Gene Mato.

Sanchez, 35 in February, will reportedly earn a $6MM salary in 2019, $7MM in 2020 and will have the additional $6MM of his $19MM guarantee deferred to 2021. That leaves the Nats with more financial breathing room as they look to continue adding to the 2019 roster, although it doesn’t lower the luxury tax hit that comes with Sanchez’s contract. The 2021 club option is valued at $12MM, and Sanchez can reportedly earn another $4MM of incentives.

Sanchez steps into the rotation spot that was recently vacated when Tanner Roark was traded to the Reds. While Sanchez, it seems, won’t come to the Nats at a significantly lower rate than the $9.8MM at which Roark was projected (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). However, unlike Roark, who exhibited numerous red flags in 2018 (e.g. diminished velocity, strikeout, home-run and ground-ball rates), Sanchez enjoyed a legitimate renaissance with the Braves in 2018 and looks in many regards to be trending back up.

After joining the Braves on a minor league contract in Spring Training, the veteran Sanchez not only worked his way onto the roster but emerged as one of Atlanta’s most reliable arms. In 136 2/3 innings, the former Marlins/Tigers hurler worked to a terrific 2.83 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate.

While Sanchez undoubtedly has his skeptics given the dreadful manner in which his time with the Tigers ended, a look at his secondary metrics and pitch selection gives every reason to continue to be optimistic in 2019. Sanchez dramatically ramped up the usage of his cutter this past season, leading to increases in both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Where Sanchez truly shined, however, was not necessarily in terms of missing bats (though his strikeout rate was strong) but rather in terms of generating weak contact. Per Statcast data, no qualified starting pitcher in baseball had a lower average exit velocity on balls in play than Sanchez, and no pitcher in the game allowed less hard contact than the minuscule 25.8 percent clip that Sanchez yielded.

Clearly, the Nationals are buying the new and improved version of Sanchez. While there’s likely some regression in store — it’s not reasonable to expect him to replicate a league-best ability to minimize hard contact, and Sanchez did benefit from both a 79 percent strand rate and .255 average on balls in play — at two years and a total of $19MM, the Nats aren’t exactly paying him to be the dominant buzzsaw that he was in Atlanta this past season. If Sanchez can even function as a competent mid-rotation piece, that’d be a more than acceptable price to pay. And, if he outperforms Roark by any appreciable sum, then the decision to jettison him in favor of Sanchez will look all the more shrewd, given the comparable salary figures.

[Related: Updated Washington Nationals depth chart and Nationals payroll outlook]

Sanchez will slot into the Nationals’ rotation behind a stacked top three that features three-time Cy Young winner/future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg and 2018 breakout star Patrick Corbin — another offseason addition for general manager Mike Rizzo and his staff. That quartet, paired with one of Joe Ross, Erick Fedde or perhaps another yet-to-be-acquired starting pitcher, should comprise one of the game’s most formidable starting staffs as the Nationals look to reemerge as contenders in an increasingly difficult division on the heels of a down year for the organization.

From a 2019 payroll vantage point, this deal won’t likely change much from the way things looked a week ago, prior to the trade of Roark, and the same is largely true with regard to the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger. As such, the addition of Sanchez shouldn’t have any impact on the Nationals’ ability to make another run at retaining Bryce Harper, though recent comments from managing principal owner Mark Lerner suggest that Harper’s time with the Nats may indeed be up.

If that’s indeed the case, the organization will have essentially spread out much of the money that could’ve gone to Harper across a number of offseason additions, having already signed Corbin, Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Rosenthal in addition to trading for Kyle Barraclough and Yan Gomes. With Sanchez now in the fold, the Nationals project at just north of $200MM in terms of both actual 2019 payroll and luxury tax payroll. That leaves about $6MM to work with to remain under the luxury barrier, though they exceeded that threshold last season, so there’s clearly no ownership mandate not to cross that point.

Sanchez’s deal may seem steep to some, given the lasting impression from his final years in Detroit. However, the general parameters of this contract align with the two years and $22MM forecast on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings/contract predictions. For those who played along in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest, just 1.88 percent of participants correctly pegged Sanchez as a future National.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press broke the news that Sanchez was signing with the Nats (Twitter links). Fancred’s Jon Heyman added information on the third-year option (Twitter links), and Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweeted the yearly breakdown of the contract.

Cardinals To Re-Sign Francisco Pena

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 12:49pm CDT

The Cardinals have agreed to a minor league contract to bring catcher Francisco Pena back to the organization, tweets Mark Saxon of The Athletic. Although Pena won’t be immediately added to the 40-man roster, Saxon suggests that Pena is being re-signed to serve as Yadier Molina’s backup in 2019.

Pena, 29, logged a career-high 142 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2018 while Molina missed time due to injury, though he hit just .203/.239/.271 in that time. He’s generally turned in strong pitch-framing marks and caught-stealing percentages throughout the upper minors, but Pena struggled at the Major League level in both regards this past season — particularly when it came to controlling the running game (1-for-15 in throwing out base thieves).

Pena has demonstrated some power at the Triple-A level, where he’s a career .252/.296/.452 hitter with 59 home runs in 1376 plate appearances. For the Cards, it’s possible that they find a more experienced option at a palatable rate as the offseason progresses, but it seems that for the time being, the plan will be for Pena to function as the backup in place of the recently traded Carson Kelly.

Eventually, it stands to reason that well-regarded catching prospect Andrew Knizner will surface in the Majors as a backup to Molina. With Kelly traded, Knizner is now the heir-apparent to Molina, who is signed through the 2020 season. However, Knizner is entering just his age 24 season and has only 61 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, so the Cards understandably will get him some more minor league development time before giving him his first look in the Majors.

NL Central Notes: Goldschmidt, Graveman, Reds, Santana

By Steve Adams | December 27, 2018 at 11:50am CDT

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cardinals believe they have a sense of what it would take to extend recently acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt as well as the ability to make a “strong, market-right offer” to the slugger. A five-year extension offer from the team “would look something like five-years, $150 million,” per Goold, who suggests that it’s possible that the Cards could tweak an offer to technically be for six years and subsequently include a bump in Goldschmidt’s 2019 salary. All of that, of course, depends on how comfortable Goldschmidt is in betting on himself, how strongly he wants to test free agency and how he takes to his new environs in St. Louis. And, it should also be emphasized, it does not appear that any formal offer has been made at this point. The suggested terms would align closely with the $151MM extension signed by Jose Altuve in Houston last offseason, although Altuve’s new contract begins in his age-30 season, while any deal extending St. Louis’ control of the already 31-year-old Goldschmidt would begin in his age-32 campaign.

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