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Diamondbacks Sign Merrill Kelly To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2018 at 8:13pm CDT

8:13pm: The D-backs formally announced the signing via a press release.

5:43pm: The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a two-year, $5.5MM contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). The contract will pay Kelly $2MM in 2019 and $3MM in 2020. It also includes a pair of club options, per Passan, the first of which is valued at $4.25MM and comes with a $500K buyout. The second of the two options comes with a $5.25MM value, he adds.

Merrill Kelly | Rob Carr/Getty Images

Kelly, a 30-year-old righty, has never pitched in the Majors but just wrapped up a strong four-year run in the hitter-friendly Korea Baseball Organization. The former Rays farmhand has been particularly impressive over the past two seasons, during which time he has made 61 starts and tossed 390 1/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 341 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) and 105 walks (2.4 BB/9). He’s being viewed as a starter and is expected to join the Diamondbacks’ rotation next season.

The Arizona rotation has taken a hit this winter with the loss of Patrick Corbin, who reportedly agreed to a six-year contract with the Nationals earlier today. Arizona will also be without Taijuan Walker for much of the 2019 season after the righty underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, and the D-backs also non-tendered Shelby Miller last week. The top names remaining in the Diamondbacks’ rotation mix include Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley and perhaps Matt Andriese, though there’s been ample trade chatter surrounding the veteran Greinke this offseason.

While Kelly lacks big league experience, the contract is a rather low-risk investment for the Diamondbacks, who will hope that Kelly can be the 2019 version of the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. It’s the second consecutive season in which GM Mike Hazen and his staff have given a multi-year contract to a pitcher who has no MLB experience. Last winter’s two-year pact for right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano paid off in spades — 66 1/3 innings of 2.44 ERA ball out of the bullpen — and Kelly will bring another intriguing overseas track record at a minimal price.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Merrill Kelly

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2018 at 2:12pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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MLBTR Chats

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2018 at 1:15pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Brewers went from a near-miss in the 2017 postseason to a deep NLCS run against the Dodgers in 2018. With much of the core under control, general manager David Stearns and the rest of the Milwaukee front office will look to push the roster to the next level in 2019.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $66MM through 2022
  • Ryan Braun, OF: $38MM through 2020 (includes $4MM buyout of 2021 mutual option)
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $37.5MM through 2021 (includes $1.25MM buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: $7MM through 2019 (includes $1MM buyout of 2020 club option)
  • Chase Anderson, RHP: $6.5MM through 2019 (includes $500K buyout of 2020 club option; contract also contains 2021 club option)
  • Jhoulys Chacin, RHP: $6MM through 2019
  • Jeremy Jeffress, RHP: $3.175MM through 2019 (contract contains 2020 club option)
  • Matt Albers, RHP: $2.5MM through 2019
  • Erik Kratz, C: $1.5MM through 2019 (as a pre-tender arbitration contract, Kratz’s deal is not fully guaranteed)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
  • Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
  • Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM
  • Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
  • Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
  • Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
  • Manny Pina (3.046) – $1.8MM
  • Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM

[Brewers depth chart |  Brewers current payroll outlook | Brewers payroll projection analysis]

Free Agents

  • Jonathan Schoop, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, Wade Miley, Curtis Granderson, Jordan Lyles, Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, Stephen Vogt, Eric Sogard

Generally speaking, there aren’t going to be a lot of holes to fill for a 96-win team that stands to retain the vast majority of its top players, but that’s perhaps less so in the case of these Brewers. Milwaukee’s outfield is set, if not overcrowded, but the Brewers’ infield, catching and rotation pictures all present the opportunity for improvement.

The Brewers bit the bullet and non-tendered Jonathan Schoop — a supposedly key trade-deadline acquisition who instead flopped in his limited time in Milwaukee. With Mike Moustakas, whose midseason acquisition was much more successful, hitting the open market and Orlando Arcia still not fully cemented as an everyday player in the big leagues, the Brewers could pursue multiple avenues to solidifying their infield mix.

Travis Shaw has proven a quality third baseman for the past two seasons in Milwaukee, but he shifted to second base at times when the club added Moustakas to the fold. Presumably, given the fact that Shaw grades out as a strong defender at the hot corner, the Brewers wish to return him to third base. At the very least, Milwaukee could stand to add a second baseman, where utilityman Hernan Perez currently tops the depth chart. Fortunately for the Brewers, there’s hardly a shortage of options available to them.

Frankly, it’s possible to imagine a variety of approaches, including the addition of multiple pieces that will see action at multiple positions. Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez would be an intriguing fit, and he’s certainly familiar to Stearns. But he may well cost more than the Brewers wish to pay. It’s not hard to imagine Stearns looking to find his own such player at a more palatable rate of pay.

DJ LeMahieu and Jed Lowrie head up a deep free-agent crop of second basemen. The former would bring some relative youth and premium defense to the position; the latter, meanwhile, is coming off a career-best season and offers more defensive versatility, though Lowrie will play next season at age 35. With top prospect Keston Hiura already reaching Double-A, the Brewers probably don’t feel the need to spend heavily on a long-term option at second base, and likely won’t be forced to in this market. Any of Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler or Asdrubal Cabrera could presumably be had on short-term pacts (in some cases, even one-year deals), and the trade market also features myriad options. Starlin Castro and Cesar Hernandez could be shorter-term options, while someone such as Arizona’s Ketel Marte is a longer-term piece who has the versatility to move to a utility role if Hiura pushes him off the spot. Stearns is never shy on the trade market, and he’ll have ample avenues to explore in that regard.

At shortstop, the need is less acute. Arcia was one of the game’s worst hitters in the first half of the season, but the former top prospect returned from a brief demotion to hit .290/.320/.386 in his final 154 plate appearances before hitting .333/.353/.606 in 34 trips to the plate in the postseason. Given his strong defensive ratings at short, his once-premium prospect pedigree and the fact that he’s headed into his age-24 season, there’s reason to believe that Arcia can hold down the fort in 2019 at the very least — if not blossom into a close approximation of the player he was projected to be when ranked as a top 10 prospect in the entire game. If anything, perhaps a glove-first utility option to support Arcia could make sense — someone in the mold of Freddy Galvis.

For a second consecutive offseason, the Brewers could explore the market for help behind the plate. Manny Pina regressed in most offensive respects in 2018, but to his credit, he improved substantially in terms of pitch framing, pitch blocking and halting stolen bases. Pina turned in a terrific defensive season but hit just .252/.307/.395. At present, he’s projected to pair with affable veteran Erik Kratz, who hit .236/.280/.355 while serving as a fan favorite and clubhouse leader. It’s a defensively sound pairing but one that also lacks much offensive upside. If the Brewers want to again try to pry a Marlins star out of Miami, they’d be a fairly natural landing spot for J.T. Realmuto, who’d bring a more well-rounded approach to the table. To date, there’s no real indication of how high a priority the club places on improving in this area, but there are quite a few other plausible targets floating around the market at different price points.

Turning to the pitching staff, Stearns and his lieutenants did well to prove that the public outcry for more rotation help last offseason was exaggerated. The Brewers will welcome Jimmy Nelson back to a starting staff that should feature a combination of Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Junior Guerra, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. It’s a quality mix of arms with some significant upside in the form of Nelson and Burnes. The standard adage that one can never have too much starting pitching always applies, and acquiring a clear top-of-the-rotation arm could allow the Brewers to deal from that depth to address other needs, but an impact starter is far more a luxury than a necessity for Milwaukee this winter. Milwaukee has often been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Sonny Gray, which would deepen that mix and add some potential upside to an already promising group. There’s also certainly an argument the Brewers should go bigger if they’re to make a move. The club has been connected to Noah Syndergaard, though that seems a remote possibility.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will return much of the unit that proved to be arguably the club’s greatest strength in 2018. Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress were an utterly dominant trio at the back of the Milwaukee ’pen for much of the season. The latter of that group may have worn down a bit in the postseason, but without the Herculean regular-season efforts of any of that threesome, the Brewers may not have been in the playoffs at all. They’ll likely be joined by veteran Matt Albers, Jacob Barnes and at least one of the rotation candidates who doesn’t end up winning a starting job this spring. But the Brewers could stand to strengthen an existing strength — particularly in the form of a left-handed reliever. Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are the top free agents out there, but Stearns hasn’t spent heavily on the ’pen in free agency since taking the reins in Milwaukee. The market has some bargain options and upside plays in the form of Oliver Perez, Zach Duke, Tyler Lyons and Jake Diekman, among others. An affordable southpaw option to pair with Hader, the resident late-inning juggernaut, would seem prudent.

Beyond filling out those needs, however, the Brewers face some surpluses with which to deal. The Brew Crew was happy to stockpile outfielders last season, knowing that players like Keon Broxton and Domingo Santana had minor league options remaining and could be shuttled back and forth from Triple-A to the Majors as needed. That won’t be the case next season, and with Yelich, Cain and Braun lined up in the outfield — Braun possesses a no-trade clause — the front office will have to make some tough decisions. Both Santana and Broxton are out of minor league options, making them obvious trade candidates this winter. Either could be used to help address the bullpen, infield or catching situations. With three and four years of club control left, respectively, neither is an extremely long-term asset, but they could very well still hold appeal to organizations such as the Indians, White Sox, and Giants that are in need of some outfield options.

It seems likely that Eric Thames will also see his name bandied about the rumor circuit this offseason. Jesus Aguilar’s ascension to primary first baseman and the outfield logjam have left Thames as something of an odd man out. It doesn’t help that the former KBO star took a step backward in his second season back in the Majors, hitting .219/.306/.478 in 278 plate appearances. Thames’ overall .237/.341/.504 slash in two seasons as a Brewer is still productive, though, and for a club seeking an affordable first base or corner outfield option (e.g. Twins, Rockies), the lefty slugger could be a reasonable target.

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff noted in analyzing the Brewers’ payroll, the current roster construction leaves Milwaukee with around $15MM to spend — based on historically plausible payroll expectations in Milwaukee. However, moving someone such as Thames, Santana or Albers could create a bit of extra room. Beyond that, given a deep playoff run in 2018, perhaps owner Mark Attanasio will be content to push the envelope a bit further in terms of what he’ll spend on the 2019 roster.

Fortunately, the Brewers are lacking in a clear, glaring need. The rotation could be improved, but Nelson’s return and the emergence of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff create a deep reservoir of arms from which to draw. Arcia showed signs of life at shortstop late in the season, and a short-term addition could bridge the second-base gap to Hiura. Neither Pina nor Kratz is a highly exciting option behind the dish, but it’s a sturdy enough pairing to support a young pitching staff. The bullpen’s top three spots are locked in, and some of the rotation mix figures to join the group.

None of that is to say that the Brewers don’t need to or won’t make some additions to bolster their chances in 2019. They assuredly will. But, rather than zero in on one specific area of need, Stearns and his staff can take a broad, value-based approach to looking at the best ways to improve the current collection of talent. That general tact has paid dividends (and produced surprises) over the past two seasons, so it’ll be interesting to see what the front office comes up with this time around.

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2018-19 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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Tigers Sign Matt Moore

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2018 at 1:04pm CDT

DECEMBER 4: The deal has now been announced.

NOVEMBER 27, 7:06pm: The guarantee is $2.5MM, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The contract also includes $1MM in potential incentives.

12:18pm: The Tigers and left-hander Matt Moore are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had indicated that the two sides were in talks just prior to that report (also via Twitter). Specific parameters aren’t clear, but Feinsand and Passan both suggest Moore would be looking at a guarantee in the range of $2-3MM. The deal is pending a physical. Moore is represented by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

Matt Moore

Moore, still just 29, has struggled through a pair of awful seasons and would be a buy-low option for the Detroit rotation. Once considered the best pitching prospect in the game — Baseball America rated Bryce Harper, Moore and Mike Trout the game’s top three overall prospects prior to the 2012 season — Moore’s career came to a screeching halt in 2014 when he underwent Tommy John surgery.

To that point, Moore had amassed 347 big league innings with a 3.53 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 all before celebrating his 25th birthday. Moore struggled in his return from the ligament replacement procedure late in the 2015 campaign but gave some reason for optimism when he tossed a career-high 198 1/3 innings of 4.08 ERA ball in 2016. His velocity hadn’t quite returned to its peak levels but was on the upswing, and Moore looked to be on the path to reestablishing himself.

Unfortunately for both Moore and the Giants — who acquired him from the Rays midway through that solid 2016 campaign — the left-hander completely unraveled in 2017. Since Opening Day that season, he’s been clobbered for a 5.99 ERA in 276 1/3 innings of work. Moore has averaged 10.7 hits and 1.5 home runs per nine innings pitched during that time, and his strikeout rate has fallen sharply (7.5 K/9). Over the past two seasons, he ranks 123rd of 125 pitchers in ERA (min. 200 innings), 107th in FIP and 117th in xFIP.

Those struggles won’t matter much to the Tigers, who are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the once-vaunted left-hander. Moore will slide into the back of a rotation that will be devoid of any expectations. Michael Fulmer, Jordan Zimmermann, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris are the top candidates to join Moore in manager Ron Gardenhire’s rotation next year, though the Detroit organization has an extremely promising wave of starting pitching prospects on the horizon. Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows and 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick Casey Mize are all rising through the ranks and could soon arrive to give the rebuilding Tigers some hope for years to come.

In the meantime, Detroit will turn to low-risk stopgaps like Moore (and, a year prior, Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano) in hopes of extracting some quality innings at a reasonable price point. Should they succeed in this instance, Moore will quickly become a trade chip next June or July.

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Detroit Tigers Transactions Matt Moore

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Giants Likely To Hire J.P. Ricciardi In Advisory Role

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 3:51pm CDT

Former Blue Jays general manager and Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi is finalizing a new contract to join the Giants’ front office as a senior advisor, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’ll be the first of what should be several front office additions for new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported talks between the two sides (Twitter link).

The 59-year-old Ricciardi spent eight years as a special advisor to the general manager in New York played a prominent role in the front office between the time at which Sandy Alderson stepped down as general manager and Brodie Van Wagenen was hired as Alderson’s successor. Ricciardi, along with fellow advisor Omar Minaya and assistant GM John Ricco, shared the workload of overseeing the Mets’ baseball operations department for much of the summer following Alderson’s departure. The Mets announced last month that the two sides had “mutually” agreed to part ways.

Ricciardi is no stranger to the Bay Area, having come up through the ranks with the Athletics in the late 80s and early 90s. The veteran exec broke into the front office side of the game as an area scout with the A’s in 1986 and rose to the titles of scouting supervisor, national crosschecker and, in 1999, director of player development. The Blue Jays hired him as their general manager in 2001 — a role he’d hold for eight years before being replaced by Alex Anthopoulos in 2009. Ricciardi has worked extensively with both Alderson and current A’s executive vice president Billy Beane in the past and will bring more than three decades of scouting and player development experience to his new post if and when the organization makes the hiring official.

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San Francisco Giants J.P. Ricciardi

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Mets Announce Acquisition Of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 2:38pm CDT

After several days of anticipation, the Mariners and Mets have made what will surely be one of the offseason’s biggest moves official: Seattle has traded second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Jay Bruce, right-hander Anthony Swarzak, right-hander Gerson Bautista and prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.

Beyond the contractual values changing hands, the Mariners are sending a reported $20MM to the Mets to help offset the remaining $120MM owed to Cano through 2023. That said, the blockbuster swap will still save the Mariners a reported total of roughly $64MM. With the $20MM sum spread in approximately even amounts during the remainder of Cano’s time under contract, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), the move will leave the Mets’ 2019 payroll in more or less the same position it was beforehand.

Robinson Cano | Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a stunning move from multiple angles. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto denied reports early in the offseason that he was considering a tear-down of the Mariners’ roster but, in the month or so since making that comment, has now traded James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Cano and Diaz — to say nothing of a Jean Segura trade to the Phillies that is reportedly nearing conclusion but has yet to be formally announced.

Meanwhile, the Mets, who’ve typically operated with a far tighter budget than one would anticipate for a club in that market, are taking on a huge amount of money in order acquire Cano and Diaz, and they still have ample work to do to address holes elsewhere on the roster. The deal is all the more fascinating when observing that newly hired Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen was formerly one of the game’s most prominent agents and that the largest contract he ever negotiated was none other than Cano’s 10-year, $240MM deal with Seattle.

Cano, who had to waive his no-trade clause to green-light this deal, will head back to the city where his big league career started and figures to supplant Jeff McNeil as the Mets’ primary second baseman. It’s a tough pill for McNeil to swallow after he hit .329/.381/.471 as a rookie, but he should still be in line for plenty of at-bats. The Mets could well give him a significant amount of work at third base, depending on the organizational plans for Todd Frazier, and McNeil has seen brief minor league work at shortstop, first base and in the outfield as well. At one point, the Mets were reportedly debating the possibility of sending McNeil to Seattle as what would’ve been a key part of this swap, and the fact that they were ultimately able to keep him is a critical factor when taking a step back and even attempting to evaluate the complex transaction.

It’s also important to emphasize that while Cano’s contract, like any 10-year free-agent deal or extension, was an obvious overpay at the time, he’s not an entirely sunk-cost acquisition. Though he served an 80-game suspension following a failed PED test last year, Cano hit .303/.374/.471 with 10 home runs through 348 plate appearances on the season as a whole. Some will point to the suspension in an effort to invalidate his output, but Cano was actually better at the plate upon returning from that ban; in 179 PAs down the stretch, he hit .317/.363/.497.

There’s also been plenty of talk about his defense, but the notion that he needs to move to first base because he’s no longer a quality defender at second base carries little weight. Since the 2012 season, Cano has received negative marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating just once (2015), and he tallied +4 DRS and a +2.8 UZR in 561 innings at the position this past season.

Of course, while Cano was still an extremely productive player when on the field in 2018, it’d be foolish to simply expect that he can continue playing at that pace in 2019 and beyond. The eight-time All-Star turned 36 in October, and he’s already outperforming the typical aging curve that one might expect for someone who is well into his mid-30s. While he may prove to be an anomalous exception in that regard, history suggests that Cano’s production will begin to deteriorate sooner rather than later. If the Mets were even able to receive two strong seasons out of Cano, they’d likely consider that a victory. There’s little doubt, though, that the final two to three seasons of Cano’s contract won’t be worth what they pay him — even with Seattle picking up a portion of the tab.

Edwin Diaz | Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Really, though, the trade was less about the Mets hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the final couple of productive seasons of Cano. For Van Wagenen and the New York front office, this trade was a means of effectively purchasing four below-market seasons of one of the game’s premier young relievers. The 24-year-old Diaz just put the finishing touches on a historically dominant season — 1.96 ERA, 15.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 44.4 percent ground-ball rate, 57 saves — and missed arbitration eligibility by a matter of weeks. He’ll make less than $1MM in 2019 and can be controlled for a fraction of his open-market price through his three arbitration years.

However, Diaz won’t be the typical bargain that many associate with arbitration-eligible players. His enormous save and strikeout totals should push him into record-breaking territory among relievers, and it’s conceivable that he’ll be paid in the $8-9MM range for his first arbitration season in 2020 — assuming another productive campaign in 2019. Like most arbitration-eligible stars, he’ll still be highly valuable asset, but the real question of this trade is just how much surplus value comes with Diaz and how confidently one can project him to maintain his dominance. One could argue that the four years of Diaz being acquired by the Mets is worth anywhere from $60-80MM (if not a bit more), and considering he’ll be paid somewhere around half that sum, he’s an extremely appealing commodity.

The debatable question is whether that surplus value is great enough for the Mets to both part with prospects and take on some negative value at the back of Cano’s deal. Obviously, both Kelenic and Dunn are exponentially more affordable than they’d be in an open-market setting themselves, and the Mariners feel that long-term value, paired with the subtraction of a huge financial burden in the form of Cano, are worth surrendering one of the game’s better young arms. There’s no clearly correct answer in that subjective debate. In the end, the Mets feel the up-front value of Diaz’s electric repertoire and the remaining productivity Cano has to offer are the more valuable asset.

That, in fact, is perhaps the most important takeaway from the entire scenario. While much of the summer was spent wondering whether the disappointing and dysfunctional Mets would trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and others — thus embarking on a rebuild like the ones the Mariners have begun — the addition of Cano and Diaz at a premium price firmly suggests that Van Wagenen and the Mets’ staff are unabashedly in “win-now” mode. Trade rumblings surrounding Syndergaard persist, though it’s clear that if he’s to be moved in a trade, it would need to be a deal that netted immediate MLB help at another position of need. The Mets are in for a highly active winter, and the organization seems fully committed to keeping up with the emerging threats in Atlanta and Philadelphia, as well as the near-perennial postseason contenders in D.C.

The Mariners entered the offseason with a bloated payroll and an aging roster, but they did so on the heels of an 89-win campaign that saw them firmly in contention for a postseason spot for much of the season. Dipoto and his staff, though, were undoubtedly cognizant of the team’s glaring run differential (-34 at season’s end). Mariners decision-makers were surely aware that there was a fair bit of good fortune that contributed to their sterling record for much of the season. While that reality and a bloated payroll initially led to comments about “re-imagining” the roster in Seattle, the M’s have instead taken a more drastic approach.

It’s a credit to Dipoto and his staff, in some regards, that the team has managed to shed upwards of $100MM in salary obligations (including the projected arbitration payouts for Colome, Paxton and Zunino while also accounting for the contracts they’re reportedly taking back in today’s trades). And, while they’ve stripped away a number of fan favorites and productive veterans from the roster, they’ve also added a significant amount of MLB-ready talent that could soften the blow immediately.

Mallex Smith and Omar Narvaez will be regulars on the 2019 roster, while pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson should both factor into the 2019 rotation at some point (possibly from Opening Day, in Sheffield’s case). Bautista, acquired in return for Cano and Diaz, will be given an opportunity to claim a bullpen spot. Bautista, 23, averaged 96.9 mph on his fastball in an exceptionally brief MLB debut this past season (4 1/3 innings) and has averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings since the Mets acquired him from the Red Sox in 2017’s Addison Reed trade.

And that doesn’t yet factor in the addition of Bruce and Swarzak — two veterans who, while acquired more to offset Cano’s salary than anything, are only a year removed from productive big league seasons that resulted in multi-year guarantees in free agency. While it’s eminently possible, if not probable, that the Mariners will look to trade both, it’s also at least possible that either could simply suit up in Seattle this coming season and perhaps enjoy a rebound. Bruce could unseat Ben Gamel in left field, and the Mariners’ relief corps is rife with uncertainty at present, creating an easy path for Swarzak to work toward reestablishing himself.

Of course, for the Mariners, this trade is primarily about the opportunity to not only add a pair of recent first-round picks in Kelenic (2018) and Dunn (2016) but also simultaneously jettison half the remaining money owed to Cano (for his age-36 through age-40 seasons). That contract was signed under the Mariners’ previous front-office regime and was likely never something Dipoto’s group was excited about inheriting. And Kelenic and Dunn will add a pair of interesting young talents to a farm system that had previously been regarded as one of the weakest in the game — if not the absolute worst.

Just 19 years of age, Kelenic was selected with the sixth overall pick just under six months ago. At one point, the Wisconsin native was tabbed as a potential No. 1 overall pick, and he’s done nothing to dispel the notion that he was a worthy top 10 overall selection since signing. In his brief time with the Mets, Kelenic hit .286/.371/.468 with six homers, 10 doubles, six triples and 15 stolen bases (in 16 tries) across two minor league affiliates. Scouting reports agree that Kelenic has the potential to be average or better in center field, and he’s already ranked comfortably within the game’s Top 100 prospects by MLB.com and Fangraphs.

Dunn, who turned 23 in late September, tore through Class-A Advanced opposition in 45 2/3 innings this season, posting a 2.36 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA jumped to 4.22 in 89 2/3 innings of Double-A ball, but he averaged 10.5 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs per nine innings pitched at that more advanced level — all while seeing his ground-ball rate improve to 45.1 percent. Dunn did average 3.7 walks per nine innings in Double-A, so there’s some work to do on his control, but he’ll instantly become one of the Mariners’ more intriguing pitching prospects.

In the end, the Cano/Diaz blockbuster, while fascinating, is impossible to accurately judge at present. While everyone will surely formulate his or own opinion of the deal as presently constructed, there are too many trickle-down effects that will prove critical when looking back at the deal down the line. Can the Mariners further unload some of the money owed to Bruce and/or Swarzak? Will either rebound? Is Kelenic a star in the making or one of the countless drops in the bucket of “what could have been”? Will Mets ownership finally give its baseball ops staff the resources commensurate with the team’s market size, or will the addition of Cano’s contract prove prohibitive when pursuing additional win-now maneuvers? All of these will factor into the calculus of this trade when looking back on it six months, a year and five years from now. What’s immediately clear is that this is a legitimately franchise-altering transaction for both organizations — and it’s unlikely that either is anywhere near finished with its offseason roster shuffling.

SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week that the Mets were being “aggressive” on Cano. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted that there was “significant momentum” toward a trade that would send Cano and Diaz to the Mets (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Kelenic and Dunn were being discussed and that an agreement between the two teams was close (Twitter links). Martino tweeted details on the package, reporting that Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic and Dunn would be in the deal, and Bautista could be the fifth player. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Bautista’s inclusion. Passan added further clarity on the financial component of the trade (via Twitter), while MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted that Cano had officially waived his no-trade clause. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted the exact package, including the money changing hands.

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New York Mets Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Anthony Swarzak Edwin Diaz Gerson Bautista Jarred Kelenic Jay Bruce Justin Dunn Robinson Cano

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Marlins Sign Pedro Alvarez, Dixon Machado, Deven Marrero To Minor League Contracts

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 12:52pm CDT

The Marlins announced Monday that they’ve signed a slew of players to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. First baseman Pedro Alvarez and middle infielders Dixon Machado and Deven Marrero have the most recent MLB experience of the bunch. Left-hander Mike Kickham, right-hander R.J. Alvarez, infielder Jon Berti and outfielder Gabriel Guerrero all have big league experience as well. Miami also made its previously reported re-signing of catcher Bryan Holaday to a minor league contract official and revealed that prized outfield addition Victor Victor Mesa will participate in Major League Spring Training.

Alvarez, 32 in February, is the most recognizable name of the bunch. The former No. 2 overall draft pick and Pirates slugger has spent the past three seasons in the Orioles organization. “El Toro” swatted 22 homers and had a solid year at the plate — primarily as a platoon designated hitter. He returned to the O’s on minor league pacts in each of the past two seasons but spent more time in Triple-A than in the Majors. Last year, Alvarez batted just .180/.283/.414 with eight homers in 127 Major League plate appearances and hit .243/.311/.446 with 16 homers in 305 Triple-A plate appearances. He’ll give the Marlins another option to compete for playing time alongside Peter O’Brien and Garrett Cooper.

Machado, 26 (and of no relation to the free-agent market’s more prominent Machado), appeared in 140 games with the Tigers from 2017-18. He’s generally regarded as a quality up-the-middle defender but didn’t provide enough hope with the bat to keep his roster spot in Detroit, even as the Tigers themselves are somewhat starved for middle-infield options. Machado batted just .229/.280/.303 in 414 PAs over the past two seasons, and he’ll give the Miami organization a glove-first depth option.

Marrero fits a similar profile. The former Red Sox first round-pick (2012) has long drawn praise for his defensive prowess but has yet to find success at the plate in parts of three seasons with Boston and another in Arizona. In 343 MLB trips to the plate, Marrero has posted a woeful .197/.250/.283 slash with five homers, 10 doubles and 10 steals. He does have experience at three infield positions, so he’ll join Machado in competing for a bench job in Miami this spring.

Kickham, soon to turn 30, will return to the Marlins organization after a solid minor league campaign in 2018. Through 42 innings (34 1/3 of which came in Triple-A), Kickham notched a 3.64 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9. He hasn’t been in the Majors since 2014 and has surrendered 37 earned runs in 30 1/3 frames as a big leaguer, but he’s thrown well in the Miami minor league ranks since 2017.

R.J. Alvarez, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2015 and has a career 7.39 ERA through 28 innings at the game’s top level. He’s punched out 101 hitters through 88 2/3 innings with the Rangers’ Triple-A club across the past two seasons, though he’s done so while exhibiting questionable control (48 walks).

Berti, 29 next month, received a four-game cup of coffee with the Blue Jays late in 2018, which marked his MLB debut. He’s struggled to a .593 OPS in 506 career PAs in Triple-A but posted much better numbers in Double-A. As with Machado and Marrero, he’ll provide some infield depth.

Guerrero, 24, was once considered to be one of the Mariners’ best prospects but has seen his production evaporate since reaching the Double-A level. The Reds gave him his first taste of the Majors in 2018, and he managed to connect on his first big league homer in a brief 14-game stint with Cincinnati. On the whole, though, he went 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first MLB cup of coffee. There’s certainly reason to believe that a player with Guerrero’s bloodline can improve; he’s the nephew of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and the cousin of Blue Jays uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Beyond the aforementioned players, the Marlins also added catchers B.J. Lopez, Sharif Othman and Rodrigo Vigil to minor league contracts, as well as left-hander Brian Moran. None of that quartet has MLB experience, though each will have the opportunity to win a job in Spring Training, it seems. Lopez, Othman and Vigil were minor league free agents of the Marlins and each re-signed to return to the organization.

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Miami Marlins Transactions Deven Marrero Dixon Machado Gabby Guerrero Mike Kickham Pedro Alvarez R.J. Alvarez

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Dodgers Extend Dave Roberts

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 12:05pm CDT

The Dodgers announced that they’ve reached an agreement with manager Dave Roberts on a contract extension that runs through the 2022 season. Los Angeles had previously exercised Roberts’ option for the 2019 season, but he’ll now be under contract for an additional three guaranteed season. That it was announced as a four-year contract may indicate that Roberts was also given a raise for the upcoming season.

“Keeping Doc as our leader on the field was a top priority this offseason and now that we’ve accomplished that we are excited to collectively shift all of our focus to doing all we can to bring a World Championship to our passionate fans,” said president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman in a statement announcing the move.

Since Roberts was hired in the 2015-16 offseason, the Dodgers have gone 287-199 in regular-season play, won three NL West Division titles and won two National League pennants en route to consecutive World Series appearances. Despite the glowing results, Roberts has drawn the ire of some Dodgers fans — as is the case with most postseason managers who ultimately fall short — particularly with regard to bullpen management and a rather rigid reliance on platoon-based lineup construction. Of course, it’s easy to zero in on relatively isolated incidents in a short series and lay blame on any manager when those moves don’t work out. Sticking with Enrique Hernandez throughout a prolonged slump in the postseason, for instance, was a particular point of contention among Dodger fans, but Roberts was surely more focused on Hernandez’s generally strong numbers against lefties over a much larger sample.

Regardless of which side of that type of issue on takes, it’s tough to dispute Roberts’ results in terms of the team’s performance in getting to the World Series in two straight years. While he undeniably had plenty of star power on his side, Roberts also at times had to lean heavily on rookies and relative unknowns while dealing with injuries to high-profile talent. Clayton Kershaw has missed time in each of the past three seasons. Corey Seager was a non-factor in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery early in the year. Players like Chris Taylor, Max Muncy and Ross Stripling have emerged from obscurity to play prominent roles in the team’s success, while veterans such as Brandon Morrow and Matt Kemp have enjoyed career renaissances in L.A. in recent seasons.

To that end, Roberts has also done well to manage what has, at times, felt like an overcrowded roster — one with numerous high-profile players who have been accustomed to much larger roles than they found on a deep Dodgers roster. By all accounts, Roberts has done well to maintain a strong clubhouse environment and to get veteran players to buy into more limited roles with an eye toward the bigger picture. That’s no small task, and while a pair of crushing World Series losses has made Roberts a polarizing figure for Dodgers faithful, the front office is clearly more than confident that he’s the right person to return the Dodgers to another Fall Classic and take care of unfinished business.

“When I was hired to lead this team three years ago, I said at the time that managing the Dodgers is truly the opportunity of a lifetime and I feel the exact same way today,” said Roberts in a statement of his own. “We’ve worked hard to develop a team and culture that will put us in position to win the World Series every season, but we still have yet to achieve our ultimate goal and that is what drives me each day. I want to thank Andrew, Stan Kasten and our outstanding ownership group for believing in me and keeping me in Dodger Blue, a uniform I’m so proud to wear.”

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Dave Roberts

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Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi Tomorrow

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 10:25am CDT

Dec. 3: Major League clubs have been informed that Kikuchi will be available to them beginning tomorrow morning at 8am ET, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Nov. 23: The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have announced that they will post ace Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams in early December (English-language link via the Japan Times). The negotiating window for the 27-year-old left-hander will begin on Dec. 5.

This will be the first offseason featuring the new posting system between NPB and MLB. Under the new rules, all 30 teams will have a 30-day window to negotiate with Kikuchi and recently hired agent Scott Boras. It’s a change from the previous iterations of the system — both the former blind bidding and the $20MM maximum posting fee — as the release fee paid to the Lions will now be based on the size of the contract that Kikuchi signs with his new team.

Beyond the actual contract given to Kikuchi, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20 percent of the first $25MM of the deal, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM of the contract, plus another 15 percent of anything beyond $50MM. (A $60MM contract, for instance, would come with a release fee of $10.875MM.) The Lions will also receive a sum equal to 15 percent of any non-guaranteed money that Kikuchi eventually earns (e.g. performance bonuses, option salaries).

Kikuchi won’t turn 28 until next June, meaning his age will be an extremely appealing factor as Major League clubs weigh how heavily to pursue him. Beyond the fact that he’s younger than any other starter on the free-agent market, Kikuchi’s performance over the past several seasons has established him as one of the top starters in all of NPB. Over the past four seasons, Kikuchi has worked to a pristine 2.58 ERA with averages of 8.9 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. The general belief with Kikuchi is that he can function, at the very least, as a serviceable fourth starter, though the most optimistic teams are more bullish on his upside.

Given the sizable number of clubs looking to add to their rotations this offseason, the general lack of available top-end pitching and the upside the left-hander brings to the table, Kikuchi’s market should be a robust mix of contenders and non-contenders alike. The Padres, for instance, are reported to be seeking starters who are young enough to contribute to the rotation by the time the bulk of the team’s core has emerged in the Majors — perhaps in the 2020-21 seasons. The Phillies, too, have been linked to Kikuchi, as have the Dodgers. Not every team with some rotation questions will embark on an aggressive pursuit, of course — the Red Sox are said to be “lukewarm” on the lefty — but interest will be expansive enough that Boras should secure a strong multi-year deal for the market’s top international player this winter.

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Newsstand Yusei Kikuchi

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Eddie Butler, Drew Rucinski Sign With KBO’s NC Dinos

By Steve Adams | December 3, 2018 at 7:42am CDT

Right-handers Eddie Butler and Drew Rucinski have signed with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization. The Dinos announced Rucinski’s signing Friday, while Butler’s signing was made official this morning (both links via Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency). They’ll each receive the maximum $1MM guarantee that first-year foreign players are permitted under the KBO’s new rule structure for inking international free agents.

Butler, 28 in March, was selected by the Rockies with the No. 46 overall pick in the 2012 draft and at one point was considered to be among the game’s premier overall prospects. The righty drew Top 50 billing from each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus leading into the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Butler, though, never missed as many bats as one would expect from someone whose power sinker and slider drew as much praise as they did while rising through the minor league ranks. His numbers took a turn for the worse upon graduating from Double-A to Triple-A, and he simply has never found his footing in the big leagues.

The lack of MLB success isn’t for lack of opportunity; Butler has racked up 263 2/3 innings across parts of five Major League seasons but struggled to a 5.80 ERA with just 5.2 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9. He’s kept the ball on the ground at an above-average 48.6 percent clip but also been far too homer-prone, yielding 1.47 long balls per nine innings pitched. Butler has spent time with the Rockies, Cubs and Rangers prior to this new agreement to pitch in Korea.

As for Rucinski, the 29-year-old has had quite a different career path than his new teammate. The Ohio State product went undrafted before signing with the Indians organization in 2011, though he ultimately wound up pitching through multiple stints in independent ball before latching on with the Angels and making his MLB debut in 2014. Along the way he worked various odd jobs, including some time on a pecan farm and selling sporting goods at a retail store.

The right-hander only got a brief glimpse of action with the Angels and had an even smaller cup of coffee with the 2017 Twins, though he logged a career-high 35 1/3 innings with the Marlins this past season. Rucinski has a 5.33 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 54 Major League innings, but he’s posted a combined 2.54 ERA in his past two Triple-A seasons between the Minnesota and Miami organizations.

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Transactions Drew Rucinski Eddie Butler

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