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Heavy Interest In C.J. Wilson

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Interest has been heavy in free agent lefty C.J. Wilson, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports, despite his disappointing postseason.  The Yankees, Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Nationals, and Rangers have already expressed interest, reports Morosi.  All six clubs had been expected to be in the mix.

An official with an involved club expects at least five years with a sixth-year option for Wilson, while another official believes six years guaranteed is possible.  Could a sixth year push Wilson to $100MM?  In an August 30th poll, 78% of nearly 7,000 MLBTR readers polled felt Wilson would fall short of nine figures.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently commented on Wilson to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, saying, "We would like to have him back.  We know he's in a great position. He'll explore his options. We'll prepare for both possibilities."  At the least, the Rangers are expected to offer arbitration to the Type A free agent nine days from now.  If Wilson does leave the Rangers, they could end up with a top 20 draft pick as compensation if the Nationals, Jays, or Angels sign him and the current system remains in place for 2012.  Out of Morosi's five competing suitors, only the Marlins have a protected first-round pick.

GM Meetings Preview

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Though GMs are flying into Milwaukee today, the GM Meetings will take place in earnest on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Today MLB's focus is on the Rookie of the Year awards, which will be announced by the BBWAA at 1pm central time.  MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith will be reporting from Milwaukee Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are a few potential stories to watch:

  • Owners meet on Thursday, at which point the sale of the Astros to Jim Crane is expected to be approved.
  • With significant progress last week, a new collective bargaining agreement could be announced at the meetings.  The Astros are expected to move to the American League in 2013, creating two 15-team leagues each with three five-team divisions.  Two more playoff teams are expected to be added.  Changes are also expected in free agent draft pick compensation and perhaps draft spending.
  • The Cardinals named Mike Matheny manager yesterday, while the Cubs and Red Sox still have openings.  The Cubs are considering Sandy Alomar Jr., Pete Mackanin, Mike Maddux, and Dale Sveum.  With a second interview coming this week, Sveum is the frontrunner for Boston's job, though Alomar, Mackanin, Torey Lovullo, and Gene Lamont are also in the mix.
  • The Miami Marlins have offers out to Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols, and Mark Buehrle.  Will any of them sign on the dotted line this week?  The Marlins were active at last year's GM Meetings, trading Dan Uggla and signing John Buck.  Assuming they're not bringing him back, the White Sox wouldn't mind Buehrle signing before November 23rd, because that would guarantee them a supplemental draft pick.
  • Click here to see the remaining free agents.  Aside from the Marlins' targets, big names include Prince Fielder, Aramis Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, and Carlos Beltran.
  • The Chunichi Dragons are up 2-0 in the Nippon Series over the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.  If the series concludes this week, will the Nippon Ham Fighters post Yu Darvish shortly thereafter?
  • Look for a couple of trades at the GM Meetings.  Last year we had trades involving Uggla and Rajai Davis, as well as the Felipe Paulino–Clint Barmes swap.  Paulino and Barmes were non-tender candidates.  I've got some tentative candidates in this spreadsheet, but my list will be published this week.
  • Last year the Joaquin Benoit contract, signed during the GM Meetings, shook up the market for free agent relievers.  Jonathan Papelbon's record deal with the Phillies has done that for the high-end of the market already, but will it have a ripple effect for all decent free agent relievers?
  • Six teams have new GMs: the Orioles (Dan Duquette), Red Sox (Ben Cherington), Twins (Terry Ryan), Angels (Jerry Dipoto), Cubs (Jed Hoyer), and Padres (Josh Byrnes).  Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is now president of baseball operations for the Cubs.  The Dodgers' Ned Colletti and the Astros' Ed Wade are operating under uncertainty with ownership changes on the horizon.

Minor Moves: Torres, Molleken

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A few minor moves for Monday…

  • The Yomiuri Giants will not exercise their 2012 option on former White Sox prospect Carlos Torres, MLBTR has learned.  The 29-year-old righty is drawing interest from MLB clubs for a split contract, and is also receiving calls from teams in Japan and Korea.  He won't be making a decision until later this year.  Torres spent most of the season in the minor leagues for Yomiuri.
  • 27-year-old righty reliever Dustin Molleken re-signed with the Rockies as a minor league free agent with a Major League invite to spring training, MLBTR has learned.  Molleken posted a 4.76 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 1.4 HR/9 in 45 1/3 relief innings this year at Double-A.

Dodgers, Mark Ellis On Verge Of Two-Year Deal

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The Dodgers are on the verge of a two-year deal with second baseman Mark Ellis, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the deal is worth $8.75MM.  Ellis is represented by TWC Sports.  

With Dee Gordon penciled in at shortstop and Juan Uribe at third, second base was considered one of the Dodgers' offseason needs.  Ellis, 34, hit .248/.288/.346 in 519 plate appearances for the Athletics and Rockies this year.  He's best known for his strong second base defense.  Assuming the current free agent compensation system remains in place for this offseason, the Rockies will receive a supplemental draft pick for losing the Type B free agent.

Kemp, Dodgers On Verge Of Eight-Year Extension

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The Dodgers and center fielder Matt Kemp are in serious discussions on an eight-year, $160MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The Dodgers and Kemp are on the verge of a deal, adds ESPN's Buster Olney.  Such a contract would be the largest in Dodgers history by a long shot, and tied with Manny Ramirez for seventh all-time.

Kemp, 27, is coming off an MVP-caliber season and would be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season.  He projects to earn over $15MM through arbitration, so if Rosenthal's figure proves final Kemp will receive more than $20MM per each of seven free agent seasons.  The Dodgers would essentially be getting Kemp's free agent years for Carl Crawford money.  

It was reported on Thursday that the Dodgers' extension talks with Kemp's agent Dave Stewart had more substance lately.  Earlier this month, owner Frank McCourt agreed to sell the Dodgers.

Visit The MLBTR Forums

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The MLBTR Forums are hopping, with 9,175 members to date.  If you'd like to expand your baseball discussions beyond the comments section at MLBTradeRumors.com, the forums are the perfect place.  We've got sections for actual trade rumors, speculative trade situations, free agents, the draft, prospects, general baseball, fantasy baseball, and each of the 30 teams.  Start or join a discussion in the MLBTR Forums today!

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are poised to spend big on a closer and must also consider acquiring a left fielder, shortstop, and utility infielder.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Phillies won a franchise-record, MLB-best 102 regular season games in 2011, but didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs.  They made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, winning one World Series and participating in another.  With several key free agents and ten players already under contract, here's a look at how GM Ruben Amaro Jr. might go about trying to sustain his success.

The Phillies' payroll should rise to the $175MM range next year, according to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki.  Including the team's arbitration eligible players they have about $138MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  The Phillies could have approximately $35MM to spend on 2012 salaries. 

Howard ruptured his Achilles tendon in the final game of the season, and although he may not be ready for Opening Day, the Phillies will probably fill first base internally until he's ready.  Potential needs remain plentiful: shortstop,  left field, multiple relievers, and perhaps a utility infielder.  Re-signing Oswalt or replacing him in the rotation with an outside veteran is an option, but seemingly not a priority given viable internal candidates and three aces at the front.

It appears to be time to move on from Rollins, if he insists on four or five years at $13MM or so annually.  Whether the Phillies use internal option Freddy Galvis or a lesser free agent, it's a hit they seem prepared to take.  I'm a little surprised signing Jose Reyes isn't being entertained, but I won't rule it out given the team's history of moving quickly and aggressively.  Otherwise, the Phillies should at least invest in Rafael Furcal, Clint Barmes, or Jamey Carroll to minimize the loss of Rollins.  Carroll, in particular, could contribute at other infield positions if Polanco and Utley need days off.

Ibanez provided little value to the Phillies in the last two years of his three-year deal, yet they appear to be headed down the same path with Michael Cuddyer as his replacement.  The Phillies' first-round draft pick would likely be part of the cost.  Cuddyer turns 33 in March and has been inconsistent offensively, plus his defense does not come well-regarded.  His versatility could come in handy in 2012, though, as he could back up the infield corners and second base.  Given that possibility, he wouldn't necessarily block top prospect Domonic Brown in the long-term.  I understand that the Phillies are in win-now mode, but their best moves have been acquiring star-caliber players.  Granting that the Phillies wouldn't be overly concerned about the back-end of either contract, they should pursue Reyes at the expense of Cuddyer.

Whether or not the Phillies lock down Madson at a reported four years and $44MM, Amaro's willingness to make that level of a commitment to a reliever is troubling.  The team just finished paying Lidge $37.5MM for 123 2/3 innings of 4.73 ERA ball.  Madson and Jonathan Papelbon aren't Mariano Rivera, and giving either closer $40MM+ will be a mistake.  Overpaying for relievers is something win-now teams sometimes have to do, but Madson would be looking at half the money without the 32 saves this year.

It feels odd to so easily criticize the moves of a team after an impressive five-year run.  Despite the annual handful of questionable contracts, the Phillies have authored enough shrewd acquisitions and extensions that perhaps Amaro and company deserve the benefit of the doubt.  Much of the Phillies' success over the last five years is owed to four players with uncertain futures: Hamels, Utley, Rollins, and Victorino.  Perhaps Amaro has already begun to acquire the next wave of stars, as the elite Halladay-Lee tandem may be together through 2014 and Pence is under control for two more seasons.  Hamels could remain a cornerstone beyond 2012, but only if the Phillies are willing to commit over $100MM.  The Phillies still won't be immune to criticism if they embark on another five-year playoff run, but at some point we'll have to acknowledge that they get the major decisions right.

Ryan Madson Rumors: Wednesday

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The latest on free agent reliever Ryan Madson:

  • The Rangers, Red Sox and Nationals are expected to pursue Madson if the deal falls through, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
  • The Phillies may have decided to wait until the collective bargaining agreement is finalized before completing the proposed deal with Madson, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
  • The sides never had an agreement in place, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Phillies are reconsidering their options and could revisit discussions with Papelbon, according to Rosenthal.
  • A source says it's "highly unlikely" a Madson-Phillies deal gets done today, tweets ESPN's Jayson Stark.
  • This morning, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com tweeted, "Source close to Madson said Tuesday night there was no deal and talks were ongoing. Still believe Papelbon in picture."  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says sources indicated this morning that the Phillies are reconsidering their options.
  • SI's Jon Heyman tweeted early this morning that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. agreed to a four-year, $44MM deal with Madson, but told agent Scott Boras he'd need the approval of team CEO David Montgomery, which still has not been given.  Heyman says Madson signed off on the deal, but the SI writer doesn't know if the contract is in jeopardy.  He adds that the Phillies had talks with Jonathan Papelbon as recently as Monday.
  • Tuesday afternoon, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio tweeted that he was hearing the Phillies were closing in on a four-year deal with Madson that could include a fifth-year vesting option.  Soon after, Yahoo's Tim Brown tweeted, "Confirming Madson with Phils, 4 for 44 mil. Fifth-year option worth 13 mil," clarifying, "Those are numbers and years Madson and Phils talking. Close, not done yet."

Marlins Rumors: Fielder, Reyes, Buehrle, Cespedes

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Just like last year, the Marlins are being aggressive early in the offseason.  But this time instead of quickly signing John Buck and Javier Vazquez and shipping out Dan Uggla, Cameron Maybin, and Andrew Miller, the new Miami Marlins are wooing top free agents.  The latest:

  • Marlins president David Samson said on the Dan Le Batard show on 790 the Ticket that the team hasn't reached out to Prince Fielder (Twitter links via MLB.com's Joe Frisaro).  
  • Samson wouldn't comment on Albert Pujols, but he confirmed that Reyes is one of the Marlins' "priorities."
  • Mark Buehrle toured the Marlins' new ballpark and caught up with his former manager Ozzie Guillen in a daylong visit yesterday, reports Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post.  Ace Josh Johnson commented, "It would be great for the team as a whole. He's a leader in the clubhouse and would really help out the rotation."  
  • Buehrle is a better bet to perform over the course of a free agent deal than C.J. Wilson, according to team executives who responded to a poll question posed by ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  Responders voted 14 to 8 in favor of Buehrle.  A GM told Crasnick, "I know C.J. Wilson is a great story, and he's obviously pitched well.  But I don't see knockout stuff, and his arm action concerns me a little bit. Buehrle quietly has been pretty rock-solid for a long time. He works fast and throws with no effort. His recipe seems built to last."
  • Marlins president David Samson appeared on MLB Network Radio this morning with Jim Duquette and Kevin Kennedy, and Capozzi has a transcript.  In regard to free-agent-to-be Yoenis Cespedes, Samson said, "Obviously he is a special guy. We’ve had some guys seeing him. We’re going to see him again. It’s not too often you can get an impact player like that as a free agent but again in our market at a position like center field with a bat that he has, that would seem like a good fit."  The Marlins are sending a contingent to the Dominican Republic for a private workout with the Cuban center fielder tomorrow, in fact.
  • Guillen has been very helpful in recruiting free agents, according to Samson.  The Marlins are meeting with Jose Reyes today, and one Mets person told John Harper of the New York Daily News the Marlins plan to offer Reyes a high-salary, three-year deal.  Personally, I don't think the Marlins will limit their offers to three years.
  • I heard today that while Japan's Yomiuri Giants inquired on free agent and former Marlins top prospect Jeremy Hermida, he's looking to stay in MLB.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers could compensate for the probable loss of Prince Fielder by acquiring corner infielders, a shortstop, and a few late-inning relievers, but payroll flexibility may be limited.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Prior to a stellar 2011 season, Brewers GM Doug Melvin had a fantastic offseason.  He put together a team that won a franchise-record 96 games, set an attendance record, and fell just two wins shy of a World Series appearance.  He also managed to lock up Braun and Weeks within a two-month span.  Melvin's follow-up act will be challenging — he's likely to lose first baseman Prince Fielder, and he drained his farm system of trade chips and potential impact players last winter.

Though Fielder said in September this was "probably" his last season with the Brewers, owner Mark Attanasio said, "We're planning on participating in the sweepstakes."  There is one scenario where I can see the Brewers retaining Fielder.  Say Fielder and agent Scott Boras do their thing all throughout December, visiting mystery teams and such, and all the offers fall short of Adrian Gonzalez's seven-year, $154MM deal.  Also say the Brewers refrain from making a major commitment to someone like Jose Reyes and keep first base open.  Then, in theory, they could jump in for around $120MM in January.  However, I can't remember Boras failing with a free agent in his prime.  There's no obvious candidate to overpay for Fielder right now, but the smart money is on Boras. 

26-year-old Mat Gamel hit .310/.372/.540 with 28 home runs in 545 Triple-A plate appearances this year, and the Brewers hope he's a late bloomer and potential Fielder replacement.  Otherwise, the free agent market features Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, and Derrek Lee as potential regulars for Milwaukee.

The left side of the infield presents another opportunity for the Brewers to improve.  The smart move at third base just might be hoping McGehee bounces back from a dismal season, because the market is bleak outside of the potentially pricey Aramis Ramirez.  McGehee would represent an arbitration gamble of $3.1MM or so.  If the Brewers do not intend to use McGehee as a starter, they should consider trading him.  Minor leaguer Taylor Green could be an internal option at third base.  Shortstop offers many opportunities to upgrade over Betancourt.  There's Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins at the high end, with Clint Barmes and Jamey Carroll also representing improvements on both offense and defense.  

The Brewers' final need is at the back end of the bullpen, with Hawkins, Saito, and Rodriguez now free agents.  Melvin could re-sign Hawkins and/or Saito or look at many other free agent options.

The problem with all these upgrades is cost.  Perhaps the Brewers' record attendance will result in a payroll increase, but right now they appear to have less than $10MM in flexibility.  The fact that the Brewers are willing to entertain re-signing Fielder suggests they could fit in a $20MM player and still address other needs.  However, we don't know if money potentially earmarked for a franchise player like Fielder would be reallocated to players like Reyes, Ramirez, or Cuddyer.  The Brewers gave up a lot to acquire Greinke and Marcum last winter, and the moves paid off.  With both pitchers eligible for free agency after 2012, the Brewers should take advantage of this window of rotation riches and stretch payroll as far as possible in an attempt to make another playoff run.

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