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The 20 Largest Contracts Signed By Pitchers After Tommy John Surgery

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If you match up unsigned pitchers in our MLB free agent tracker with Jon Roegele’s excellent running list of those who had Tommy John surgery, it appears that 33 of the 92 hurlers on the market have that famous elbow procedure in their history:

Al Alburquerque
Brett Anderson
John Axford
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Jorge de la Rosa
Jumbo Diaz
Brian Duensing
Scott Feldman
Neftali Feliz
Jaime Garcia
Miguel Gonzalez
A.J. Griffin
Jason Grilli
David Hernandez
Greg Holland
Drew Hutchison
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Lance Lynn
Dustin McGowan
Jason Motte
Peter Moylan
Eric O’Flaherty
Seung-hwan Oh
Zach Putnam
Bruce Rondon
Trevor Rosenthal
Anibal Sanchez
Shae Simmons
Drew Storen
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez

Meanwhile, a look at the 51 pitchers who have signed free agent contracts shows that 11 of them are Tommy John surgery survivors.  Tyler Chatwood, Jake McGee, and Pat Neshek all signed healthy contracts, with their procedures many years in the rearview.  In addition, Drew Smyly and Michael Pineda, who both had the surgery last July, set a new precedent by signing $10MM deals.  Smyly and Pineda have basically been written off for 2018, but the Cubs and Twins found a $10MM guarantee to be a worthy gamble in the hopes of full, effective 2019 seasons.

Of the 27 pitchers on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, 10 have had Tommy John surgery.  That includes four of the top 11 free agents of any type: Darvish, Lynn, Holland, and Cobb.  Oddly enough, each member of that quartet had Tommy John in 2015 within an eight-month span.  MLBTR ranked Darvish as the best available free agent this winter, and he’s vying to land the largest free agent contract in MLB history for a pitcher who previously had Tommy John surgery.  Here’s my attempt at the all-time top 20 contracts pitchers received post-TJS:

1.  Stephen Strasburg – $175MM (extension with Nationals May 2016)
2.  Jordan Zimmermann – $110MM (free agent contract with Tigers Nov 2015)
3.  Adam Wainwright – $97.5MM (extension with Cardinals Mar 2013)
4.  A.J. Burnett – $82.5MM (free agent contract with Yankees Dec 2008)
T-5.  Anibal Sanchez – $80MM (free agent contract with Tigers Dec 2012)
T-5.  Wei-Yin Chen – $80MM (free agent contract with Marlins Jan 2016)
7.  C.J. Wilson – $77.5MM (free agent contract with Angels Dec 2011)
8.  Danny Duffy – $65MM (extension with Royals Jan 2017)
9.  Mark Melancon – $62MM (free agent contract with Giants Dec 2016)
10.  A.J. Burnett – $55MM (free agent contract with Blue Jays Dec 2005)
11.  Ryan Dempster – $52MM (free agent contract with the Cubs Nov 2008)
12.  Rich Hill – $48MM (free agent contract with Dodgers Dec 2016)
T-13.  Francisco Liriano – $39MM (free agent contract with Pirates Dec 2014)
T-13.  Josh Johnson – $39MM (extension with Marlins Jan 2010)
15.  Tyler Chatwood – $38MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2017)
16.  Hyun-Jin Ryu – $36MM (contract with Dodgers involving posting system Dec 2012)
17.  Rafael Soriano – $35M (free agent contract with Yankees Jan 2011)
18.  Kerry Wood – $32.5MM (extension with Cubs Jan 2004)
19.  John Lackey – $32MM (free agent contract with Cubs Dec 2015)
T-20.  Scott Feldman – $30MM (free agent contract with Astros Jan 2014)
T-20. John Smoltz – $30MM (free agent contract with Braves Dec 2001)

If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact us.

MLB Free Agents – 2017-18 Updated Tracker

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Here at MLB Trade Rumors, we’ve been following the hot stove religiously since 2005.  MLB free agents have seen a delayed market that may play out largely in the new year, with players such as Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and Eric Hosmer still looking for homes.  For anyone looking to keep tabs on who’s signed and who’s still out there, our tracker for MLB free agents is the best on the Internet.  It’s constantly updated and lets you filter by tons of criteria, including team, position, signing status, handedness, qualifying offers, years, amounts, and option types.  Check it out today!

Follow The Winter Meetings With Our Free Trade Rumors App

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Following the MLB Winter Meetings on your phone?  We’ve got your covered with our free Trade Rumors app for iOS and Android.  With Trade Rumors, you can set up custom notifications to suit your needs, whether it’s for all of MLB, certain teams, or a few specific players.  Plus, the app’s clean, fast interface draws rave reviews.  The hot stove is burning, so download Trade Rumors at the links below!

Trade Rumors for iOS devices

Trade Rumors for Android devices

Yankees, Marlins Reach Deal For Stanton

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10:56am: Jon Heyman of FanRag reports via Twitter that the Yankees will receive about $35MM from the Marlins in the deal, and confirms that they’ll send back Castro and prospects. Heyman also adds in a separate tweet that Stanton is on his way to NYC for a physical, making it clear that he is waiving his no-trade clause.

10:35am: A source close to Morosi confirms Rosenthal’s report that Stanton is expected to approve the trade.

9:56am: A last-ditch effort to acquire Stanton today by the Dodgers is unlikely, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports hears (Twitter link).

9:33am: The main prospects that would be headed back in the deal are down in the lower levels of the Yankees’ minor league system, Sherman adds.

9:20am: Sherman hears that Castro is the only veteran going back to the Marlins in the deal (Twitter link). The other players going to Miami are Yankees prospects, though not their “best.”

8:49am: The expectation is that Stanton will approve the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal also mentions that the deal is pending physicals, which seem to be the only real item standing in the way of the trade being considered complete.

7:14am: The Yankees and Marlins have a deal for Giancarlo Stanton, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.  The deal is still subject to Stanton’s approval, as the slugger has full no-trade rights.  Several hours prior, Joel Sherman of the New York Post called the deal “virtually done,” noting the Marlins will receive second baseman Starlin Castro “plus good but not top prospects” if completed.  Before that, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle had reported the deal as “close if not done.”

Yesterday, Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Previous reporting has indicated that the Yankees are on the short list of teams to which Stanton would be willing to be traded, so his approval in this case may not be a major hurdle.  Stanton will also need to pass a physical by the Yankees, as Sherman has noted.

The pairing of Giancarlo Stanton with Aaron Judge will be one for the ages.  Stanton just took home the NL MVP award with an epic 59 home run season, a level that had not been reached since Barry Bonds in 2001.  Meanwhile, Judge won the American League Rookie of the Year award and finished second in the AL MVP voting with 52 bombs, a rookie record.  Throw in catcher Gary Sanchez, and Yankees GM Brian Cashman has assembled a Murderers’ Row of right-handed sluggers.

Earlier this year, the Marlins were purchased by a group led by former Yankees great Derek Jeter, as well as investor Bruce Sherman.  The pair chose to keep alive the Marlins’ fire sale tradition, intent on moving Stanton because of the massive contract he signed under previous owner Jeffrey Loria three years ago.  The Marlins’ leverage was clearly reduced after Stanton rejected trades to the Cardinals and Giants.  Stanton, 28, is still owed $295MM over the next ten years.  After the 2020 season, he has the right to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM, which will be a source of significant downside risk for the Yankees.  Yankees GM Brian Cashman has expressed his commitment to getting the team’s payroll under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, which isn’t easy to do while adding Stanton’s contract.  Sending Castro to the Marlins removes a two-year, $22MM commitment. However, as Sherman points out, the average annual value of Castro’s contract is what counts towards the tax; that figure is $8.6MM.

It’s certainly too early to say this for certain, but the impact of this trade could even reach next year’s free agent market, as Mark Zuckerman notes on Twitter. The Yankees have long been considered one of the best potential suitors for former NL MVP Bryce Harper, but may not have room for him in their outfield (or potentially their 2019 payroll) any longer. It would be hard to imagine them using one of Judge, Stanton or Harper exclusively as a designated hitter, and none of them are likely candidates to play anywhere on the field besides the outfield corners.

The deal will also come with significant risk for the Yankees. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs pointed out back in November, it’s hard to know how the reigning NL MVP will age. Stanton also missed large portions of the 2015 and 2016 seasons with a broken hand and a groin strain, respectively. Add that injury history into the mix, and there’s a number of scenarios that end with Stanton’s contract becoming a significant albatross for the Yankees during the final years of the deal. This doesn’t necessarily detract from the fact that New York is in a much better position over the next few years due to the slugging outfielder’s presence, but it’s certainly a notable concern.

Acquiring Stanton should help soften the blow for the Yankees of seeing Shohei Ohtani agree to terms with the Angels. Last week, the Bombers were considered strong suitors for the services of the two-way Japanese phenom, and didn’t seem like serious contenders to land Stanton in a trade. While the Yanks will still want to make a big improvement to their pitching staff, Stanton adds similar value to their roster overall, and perhaps allows them to be more aggressive in shopping outfielder Clint Frazier for cost-controlled starting pitchers (hat tip to Joel Sherman).

The Miami Marlins originally took Stanton with the 76th overall pick in the 2007 draft (second round). After a hot start with the Marlins’ Double-A affiliate three years later, the team decided to promote him straight to the majors, skipping Triple-A entirely. Stanton stuck in the majors and has been a power monster ever since; he’s already socked 267 home runs over the course of his career to go with a .268/.360/.554 career slash line. While he’s dealt with a plethora of injuries that have caused him to miss time in four of his seven full seasons, the Sherman Oaks, California high school product has averaged roughly 4.5 WAR during that time. 2017 was Stanton’s best season yet; not only did he mash a career-high 59 homers, but he cut his strikeout rate down to a career-low 23.6%. Ultimately, he was rewarded with the National League’s MVP honors for his tremendous year.

Extending Shohei Ohtani

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If Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani signs with an MLB team, perhaps in the new year, he’ll be limited to a minor league deal.  The most Ohtani could receive is $3.535MM from the Rangers, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press.  The Yankees and Twins are able to offer similar amounts.  The Pirates, Marlins, and Mariners can offer $1.5MM or more.  Everyone else is capped below $1MM, all the way down to the Indians and Rockies at $10K each.

The assumption is that these differences will not matter much to Ohtani, who might be leaving $200MM on the table by attempting to come to MLB now instead of in two years.  He’s already banked millions of dollars from his NPB career, and he would earn the MLB minimum of $545K as a rookie.

It is also true that if Ohtani wants to lock down life-changing money, he would be able to do so with little or no MLB experience.  Ohtani’s team can sign him to an extension at any time, as long as the extension wasn’t discussed as an inducement to sign him in the first place.  Three players have signed extensions with fewer than 30 days of big league service time:

  • The Rays signed Evan Longoria in April 2008 to a six-year, $17.5MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Longoria had six days of MLB service.
  • The Rays signed Matt Moore in December 2011 to a five-year, $14MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years.  Moore had 17 days of big league service.
  • The Astros signed Jonathan Singleton in June 2014 to a five-year, $10MM deal that included three club options, one of which covered a potential free agent year.  Singleton’s extension coincided with his big league promotion, meaning he signed with no big league service.

Ohtani’s NPB experience could stand in for the extensive minor league experience that justified these contract extensions.  I think a team could offer $20-25MM to Ohtani in April without sounding alarm bells at MLB’s offices.  Ohtani’s team would already control him for six years, or even close to seven years if they’re willing to keep him in the minors for a few weeks as the Cubs did with Kris Bryant.  So the incentive for a team to offer an extension would be gaining control over some of Ohtani’s potential free agent years.  One can imagine that the player’s agent would advise against this, but it is a way Ohtani could guarantee himself good money right out of the gate.  It is possible, too, that the agent could attempt to play with the structure established by Longoria, Moore, and Singleton.  For example, Singleton’s contract covered only one potential free agent year, with a club option for $13MM.  What if Ohtani made the same concession, but with an option price of $20MM or more?

Other players, such as Salvador Perez, Chris Archer, and Tim Anderson, signed extensions with service time ranging from 50 to 156 days.  Those deals topped out at Anderson’s $25MM, signed last March.  If Ohtani waits until he has one year of Major League service time, the ceiling on a reasonable extension increases quite a bit.  Four such players — Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons — signed for $40MM or more guaranteed.  Simmons is tops in the one-plus service class, with a seven-year, $58MM deal.  After one decent year in MLB, Ohtani should be able to sign an extension worth $60MM or more.

As for that monster deal that would have been a lock if Ohtani waited until he was a true free agent?  That probably becomes an option if he logs two successful years in the Majors.  Mike Trout signed for $144.5MM over six years, while Buster Posey inked a deal worth $159MM over eight years.  It is entirely conceivable that Ohtani could come to the Majors now and sign a $200MM extension in March of 2020.  Granted, he would need to play like an MLB superstar over the 2018-19 seasons to make that possible.  But to reach those heights in a true MLB free agent bidding war in the 2019-20 offseason, he would have needed to continue at a very high level in NPB anyway.  Viewed in that light, Ohtani’s decision to jump to MLB this winter at perhaps his peak ability doesn’t seem so crazy.

Next Winter’s Free Agent Starting Pitchers Aren’t Worth Waiting For

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As the 2017-18 offseason gets underway, we’ve heard a lot about teams anticipating the 2018-19 class.  Some clubs could even curb current spending to prepare for that group.  That’s reasonable enough, given potential franchise-altering free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  In addition to those two abnormally young superstars, the position players include many excellent players who will be 30 or older in 2019: Charlie Blackmon, Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Marwin Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, and A.J. Pollock, for example.  While it would be risky for a team to let this group of potential free agents affect their 2017-18 offseason spending, you can at least make a case.  However, the list of starting pitchers who project to be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season is less impressive.

Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and after the 2018 season he has the ability to opt out of the two years and $65MM left on his contract with the Dodgers.  Kershaw will turn 31 in March of 2019.  One way or another, he’s going to get a new monster contract between now and then.  It might just be another record-setting extension, as the Dodgers have almost a year to attempt to lock him up.  Given that very real possibility, the only team that should take Kershaw into account this winter is the Dodgers.

After Kershaw, the 2018-19 free agent class for starting pitchers doesn’t look all that special.  David Price could opt out of his remaining four years and $127MM, but that looks unlikely at present.  The lefty will turn 33 next August and was limited to 11 starts this year due to an elbow injury.  Aside from Kershaw, the biggest 2018-19 free agent starting pitcher contracts may go to Dallas Keuchel and Drew Pomeranz.  They will 31 and 30 years old, respectively, and posted solid 2017 seasons.  Still, these aren’t pitchers you plan for a year in advance.

Further down the list, question marks pile up.  Garrett Richards could be interesting, but only if his partially torn UCL holds up in 2018.  Similarly, perhaps Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi can re-establish themselves next season.  Gio Gonzalez and Charlie Morton are quality pitchers who will be 33 and 35 years old, respectively, in 2019, though Morton has indicated that he may retire once his current contract expires.  Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, and Cole Hamels may remain useful pieces a year from now.

While the position players potentially available could make the 2018-19 offseason one for the ages, the starting pitching in this class does not measure up.  We actually saw a group far more impressive in the 2015-16 offseason, when Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Kazmir signed for over a billion dollars combined.  It’s unclear whether Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta will incite bidding wars this winter, but if they don’t, it won’t be because of the 2018-19 free agent starting pitchers.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Lose By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Lance Lynn, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland, and Carlos Santana received one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers from their teams earlier this week.  If those players sign elsewhere, here’s a look at the draft picks the signing team would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Tigers, Dodgers, Yankees, Giants, Nationals

If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2018 draft.  The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.  The Tigers are highly unlikely to sign one of the nine players listed above, but the other four teams might.  The Giants’ second-highest pick will fall somewhere in the 30s overall, so they stand to lose the most if they sign a qualified free agent.

Non-Disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees: Diamondbacks, Braves, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays

These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax.  If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick.  These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.

All Other Clubs: Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, Angels, Mets, Phillies, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays

These nine remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  The penalty is something of a middle ground, but it would sting for a team like the Phillies to sacrifice a pick in the 30s.

What happens if a team signs two of these nine free agents?  The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick.  For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks.  So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

RELATED: Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

MLBTR Seeking Android App Developer

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Our Trade Rumors app for Android has been downloaded over 70,000 times and receives strong reviews.  However, the app has developed some bugs and we are seeking a new Android app developer to step in and take care of the issues.  We are seeking an individual who is able to work on the app as needed on an hourly or daily basis, hopefully over the long-term.  While we may explore new features in 2018, the immediate work will focus on fixing bugs.

If you have experience as an Android app developer, please email mlbtrandroid@gmail.com and explain your background.  Please include your expected pay rate in the email.

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