MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- On the most recent installment of the MLBTR Podcast, Jeff welcomed MLBTR’s Steve Adams to the show to discuss his philosophy on liberally extending qualifying offers. The discussion then moves into this year’s market, covering a host of possible QO recipients — including players such as Marco Estrada (Blue Jays), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Denard Span (Nationals), David Freese (Angels), Matt Wieters (Orioles), Ian Kennedy (Padres), and Colby Rasmus (Astros). A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, will reach free agency this winter at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power. Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked at Upton’s market and potential contract. Tim sees the Padres outfielder netting a seven-year, $147MM contract on the open market.
- Scott Boras might start out by seeking a Russell Martin-type deal for client Matt Wieters, but will he get it? Tim looked at the market that awaits the Orioles catcher in the coming months.
- Charlie Wilmoth looked at the A’s offseason and what they’ll have to do to rebound from a 94-loss season. Charlie wouldn’t rule out anything in Oakland, and that includes trades of Stephen Vogt, Jesse Chavez, or even Josh Reddick.
- Here’s a refresher on the qualifying offer system and how it works.
- Could the Cubs and Jake Arrieta hammer out an extension this winter? Tim sees it as a possibility for the Cubs, who could fortify their team in a number of ways this offseason.
- Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
- After one of the most frenetic offseasons in recent history, the Padres entered the 2015 season with elevated expectations and a wildly different roster than the one inherited by first-year GM A.J. Preller. Unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned for the Padres in 2015, and Steve ran down some of their options this winter to turn things around.
- Is Jordan Zimmermann a top-of-the-staff stalwart or a steady mid-rotation arm? Jeff looked at both sides of the coin and concluded that the 29-year-old could still get a hefty six-year pact.
- Mike Leake is poised to be one of the youngest free-agent pitchers in recent memory and Steve sees some serious dollar signs in his future.
- With several key players hitting the free agent market, the Orioles’ roster could look significantly different come Opening Day, Mark Polishuk writes. There has been a lot of discussion as to whether the Orioles should extend a QO to Matt Wieters, and Mark opines that the catcher would reject it if offered.
- If you missed out on last weeks chat, get caught up with the transcripts here and here.
Royals To Non-Tender Greg Holland
The Royals will not tender an offer to injured reliever Greg Holland, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The news doesn’t come as much of a surprise after Holland underwent Tommy John surgery in late September. Heyman adds that the Royals would be happy to consider a two-year deal for Holland, as they did for Kris Medlen.
Holland was set to earn $11.3MM via arbitration, according to MLBTR and Matt Swartz’s projection model. Even before Holland’s injury, there were questions as to whether the Royals would be able to retain the 29-year-old (30 next month). When the former closer suffered a “significant” tear in his UCL, the decision unfortunately became much easier for KC. Holland will miss most, if not all of the 2016 season.
The Royals were said to have asked Holland to get the elbow checked out on multiple occasions this season, but Holland’s preference was always to pitch through the discomfort. Ultimately, though, his September struggles became too significant, and with his fastball dropping from the mid 90s to the high 80s, Holland had no choice but to get checked out.
To this point in his career, the two-time All-Star has a 2.42 ERA with 12.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 145 saves in 319 2/3 innings. All of those innings came as a member of the Royals, who selected Holland in the 10th round of the 2007 draft. It’s still possible that the Royals and Holland could work out a new deal, but Kansas City will have to compete with everybody else if that’s their intention. Holland and newly hired agent Scott Boras can be expected to scout the market for the best opportunity.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Phillies, Pirates, Orioles
On this date in 2007, the Dodgers hired Joe Torre as their new manager, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. The former Yankee skipper was replaced in New York this week by Joe Girardi, who was also a candidate in L.A.
Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..
- Blue Jays Plus reflected on Alex Anthopoulos in Toronto.
- Section 215 discussed the Phillies’ new leadership structure.
- TPOP has a FAQ on the Pirates’ potential trade returns.
- Legends On Deck looked at Mike Moustakas from a sabermetrics perspective.
- Outside Pitch says Anthopoulos would make sense for the Marlins.
- Camden Depot introduces Orioles fans to Vance Worley.
- Florida Sports View says the Marlins should target Doug Fister.
- The Bronx Bomber Blogger talks Yankees trade possibilities.
- Reviewing The Brew says the Brewers should target Max Kepler.
- Angels Win continued its Halos primer.
- Pinstriped Prospects discussed the Yankees’ 2014 int’l free agent class.
- Notes From The Sally scouted Javier Guerra.
- Baseball Essential says Zack Greinke won’t be going anywhere.
- Brew Crew Ball checked in on a former Milwaukee farmhand.
Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Latest On Nationals’ Managerial Search
9:52pm: Black’s second interview will also take place on Monday, ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets.
2:53pm: Dusty Baker and Bud Black will indeed receive second interviews for the Nationals’ managerial vacancy and, at this point, it appears that one of the two will get the job, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com writes. “Barring something strange happening,” Heyman writes that it will be one of the two experienced candidates since they are the only finalists remaining.
Baker will interview on Monday while Black’s interview will also take place early this week. Heyman notes that GM Mike Rizzo has a preference for experienced managers, though he made an exception in the case of Matt Williams.
In 1362 career games as a manager, all with the Padres, Black totaled a record of 649-713 despite routinely having to work with one of baseball’s lowest payrolls. A pitching coach prior to his work as a manager, he drew praise for his work with many of San Diego’s young arms over the course of his career in the dugout.
As the manager of the Reds, Baker led the club to a 509-463 record and three playoff berths across six seasons. The 66-year-old is also a three-time NL Manager of the Year and led the 2002 Giants to the National League pennant. In total, Baker owns a 1671-1504 record as manager of the Giants, Cubs, and Reds.
The Nats conducted a wide-ranging search for the position with names such as Ron Gardenhire, Giants coach Ron Wotus, Dodgers coach Tim Wallach, Alex Cora, and Diamondbacks minor-league manager Phil Nevin among those linked to the opening. Ex-Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly was conspicuously absent from their search and it doesn’t appear that Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. garnered consideration despite his stated interest in the job.
East Notes: Marlins, Jennings, Harvey, Red Sox
After being told he would not retain his job as manager, Dan Jennings was set to return to the Marlins last week to resume GM duties. However, Jennings had questions about his current role and responsibilities that president David Samson couldn’t immediately answer, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. Samson has asked Jennings to stay home while he discusses the situation with owner Jeffrey Loria. The Marlins haven’t pulled their offer for Jennings to return as GM, Jackson writes, and he and Loria are expected to talk in the coming days. Jennings might have less influence in the front office than he did before, and that’s a result of Loria “listening to more voices.” In addition to president/baseball operations Michael Hill, farm system chief Marc Delpiano and execs Mike Berger and Jeff McAvoy also have sway.
Here’s more out of the East divisions..
- More from Jackson, who writes that the Marlins’ payroll of $68MM “is expected to rise slightly” in 2016. In 2015, Miami had the lowest payroll in baseball.
- With whispers that the Mets will listen this winter on offers for their top three starters, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes that it’s “not impossible” that New Englander Matt Harvey will end up in the Red Sox‘s rotation next season. Of course, there was more speculation surrounding Harvey’s Mets future during the innings-limit controversy and it’s hard to picture a deal happening as he gets set to take the hill in Game 1 of the World Series.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times opines that it’s fair to wonder if Andrew Friedman erred in not bringing Joe Maddon to the Dodgers after both men left the Rays. The Dodgers, of course, are searching for their next manager after parting ways with Don Mattingly.
AL East Notes: Greinke, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays
Zack Greinke would fit the bill for the Red Sox this winter, but Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald wonders if Boston would be the best place for him. One source close to the pitcher speculated that Greinke “definitely wouldn’t want any more stress or additional media attention,” though that was only his assumption and not something he heard directly from the former Cy Young Award winner. One can’t help but speculate if Greinke, who has been diagnosed with social anxiety disorder and clinical depression, may prefer to pitch in a market with less pressure than Boston.
Here’s more out of the AL East..
- Tim Naehring has been “one of Brian Cashman’s most trusted advisors on players the Yankees look to trade for or sign as free agents,” George A. King III of the New York Post writes. In fact, King adds that the sight of Naehring at a game often leads outsiders to conclude that the Bombers have interest in at least one of the players on the field. On Saturday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Naehring would fill the vacancy left by former assistant GM Billy Eppler, though he will not take on that title.
- All of the deadline deals made by Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos ended up working out, Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com writes. David Price proved to be the frontline starter the Blue Jays needed, Mark Lowe gave Toronto a boost in the bullpen, Ben Revere solved the team’s defensive woes in left field, and Troy Tulowitzki gave the club another dangerous bat when healthy.
- The Blue Jays could solve their rotation puzzle by plugging Roberto Osuna or Aaron Sanchez into the starting five, but they’d be better served to try and re-sign Price and Marco Estrada, Chisholm writes. Still, a reunion won’t come cheap, especially when it comes to Price. Earlier today, one AL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he could see Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- In celebration of Back to the Future Day, host Jeff Todd spoke with Back to the Future screenwriter and longtime Cardinals fan Bob Gale on the MLBTR podcast. A new episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is released every Thursday and can be accessed on iTunes, SoundCloud, and Stitcher.
- Two-time home run king Chris Davis is set to hit the free agent market and Tim Dierkes looked at his strengths and weaknesses in a comprehensive profile. Tim sees the Astros, Mariners, and Padres as some possible fits but he can also envision scenarios in which the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play.
- In the last year, five franchise contract records were toppled and we could see more fall this offseason with nine potential $100MM free agents. Recently, Tim ran down the largest contract in franchise history for every MLB team.
- The Pirates will have to replace a number of key free agents and resolve several key arbitration cases this winter if they want to continue as contenders. Charlie Wilmoth looked at some of their offseason options.
- Mark Polishuk says that the Yankees might want to prioritize adding young depth to their veteran core rather than spending big on one free agent.
- Mark also examined Braves hurler Shelby Miller as a potential extension candidate. The 25-year-old hasn’t proven that he’s a frontline ace yet, but as a former consensus top-10 prospect, his very best baseball could still be in front of him.
- The Giants have money to spend on a pitching-heavy free agent market and Jeff looked at what else it will take for SF to get back to World Series contention. As Jeff notes, the team has a fair amount of cash on the books already for next year (about $120MM, before arb) and 2017 (~$73MM, pre-arb), but little thereafter.
- Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
- With Al Avila now atop the baseball operations pyramid, the Tigers will again act as buyers this winter in hopes of returning to the top of the AL Central, Steve Adams writes. The bullpen has been a problem area for Detroit over the years and Steve looked at several avenues the Tigers could take in order to correct their late-game pitching.
- MLBTR hosted chats on Wednesday (link) and Thursday (link).
David Ross Plans To Return To Cubs In 2016
Catcher David Ross told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he will return to the Cubs next season rather than retire. Ross, who turns 39 in March, has one more year to go on his contract.
“It was a great ride,” Ross said of the Cubs’ postseason run. “It’s more sad we didn’t play well and [the Mets] played great. A lot of positives as I look back, but thought we had a legit chance at the World Series. I really wanted to get [Jon] Lester and [Jake] Arrieta another start.”
Ross has never been known for his bat, but he still had a rough season even by those depressed standards. The veteran slashed .176/.267/.252 across 182 plate appearances on the year. However, the Cubs likely value Ross more for his defensive skills, veteran leadership, and his ability to work with the team’s pitchers when called upon. If the Cubs do not trade or release Ross, he’ll likely return to the team to serve as Miguel Montero‘s understudy. Meanwhile, the Cubs are still unsure of their future plans for Kyle Schwarber, who could wind up in the outfield or behind the plate.
Ross inked a two-year, $5MM deal with Chicago in December of 2014. The signing, presumably, was made in part because of Ross’ history with Lester.
Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches. It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.
“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”
Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.
Here’s more from today’s column..
- The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities. Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
- The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal. Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked. Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
- Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.” Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal. Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto. The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
- One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM. In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
- Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards. One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness. At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
- One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.” Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock. The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
- Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch. The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period. The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
- At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill‘s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real. One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
- Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters. Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer. The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached. In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: A’s, Herrera, Cubs
On this date in 2007, Hideki Okajima became the first Japanese-born player to pitch in the World Series, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. The former Nippon Ham Fighters hurler came out of the bullpen and retired seven straight Rockies, including Kazuo Matsui, making it the first time Japanese natives have faced one another in the World Series.
Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere:
- Swingin A’s ran down Oakland’s arbitration eligible players using MLBTR’s projections.
- Section 215 praised Odubel Herrera.
- World Series Dreaming looked ahead to the Cubs’ offseason.
- Outside Pitch says the future is bright for the Cubs.
- Florida Sports View attempted to figure out Daniel Murphy‘s worth.
- Shutdown Inning has a checklist for Texas.
- Pinstriped Prospects ran down the tradable Yankees upper-minors prospects.
- TPOP ran down some possible landing spots for Mark Melancon.
- Reviewing The Brew says the Brewers should take a flier on Domonic Brown.
- Yankees Unscripted talked Brian McCann.
- Baseball Essential says there’s one player the Cubs should consider trading Kyle Schwarber for.
- Fueled By Sports wonders if the Blue Jays can stay hot.
- Notes From The Sally has a scouting report on Jorge Mateo.
- Angels Win continued its 2016 Halos primer.
Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.