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Orioles Agree To Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo

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The Orioles have agreed to sign Yovani Gallardo to a three-year, $35MM deal with a $13MM club option for 2019. He will be paid $9MM in 2016, $11MM in 2017, and $13MM in 2018. The 2019 option comes with a $2MM buyout, pushing the total guarantee to $35MM. The deal is pending a physical and does not include a no trade clause. The only incentives are small bonuses for awards (tweet).

GallardoInstaGallardo owns a career 3.66 ERA, 8.23 K/9, and 3.31 BB/9 across parts of nine major league seasons. After spending the bulk of his career with the Brewers, Gallardo was traded to the Rangers prior to 2015. He posted another solid campaign with a 3.42 ERA, although ERA estimators were less enthused by his work (4.00 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA). It was his most contact oriented season – he had a career low 5.91 K/9 and 6.5 percent swinging strike rate.

The Orioles rotation was among the worst in the league last season, making Gallardo an important addition. While he’s not a traditional ace, he does have plenty of experience pitching in other bandbox ball parks. Milwaukee’s Miller Park and Texas’s Globe Life Park are two of the most home run friendly stadiums. So too is Camden Yards.

Interestingly, Baltimore inked Gallardo for substantially less than the Royals paid for Ian Kennedy. Both pitchers were expected to have similar difficulties on the free agent market. The former Padres starter is a year older than Gallardo. The two starters are comparably talented but Kennedy has the more inconsistent track record. Of course, Kennedy’s complicated deal is backloaded and includes an opt out after just two seasons, making an apples-to-apples comparison difficult. Kennedy also has a history of high strikeout rates while Gallardo is more of pitch-to-contact guy.

When the Rangers tagged Gallardo with the qualifying offer, some believed he should have accepted it. While the soon-to-be 30-year-old had a long wait to find a new home – pitchers and catchers have already reported to Orioles camp – Gallardo ultimately secured nearly three times the qualifying offer which was valued at $15.8MM this offseason. He’ll now be under contract through at least his age 32 season with a chance to return to the market in either 2019 or 2020.

Gallardo effectively replaces Wei-Yin Chen in the Orioles rotation. Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman, and Miguel Gonzalez will undoubtedly form the rest of the rotation, although all four pitchers were disappointing in 2015. Jimenez’s 4.11 ERA was the best of the bunch while Tillman and Gonzalez finished with just under a 5.00 ERA. The club does have decent rotation depth including Odrisamer Despaigne, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and out-of-options Dylan Bundy, but none of them offer a high ceiling. Gallardo is the de facto ace of this group.

The Orioles will lose the 14th overall pick in the 2016 draft as a result of the signing. The slot value of the pick is $2.97MM. The Orioles also have the 28th overall pick which they received as compensation for losing Chen. However, they would also lose that pick if they sign Dexter Fowler.

Eduardo E. Encina of the Baltimore Sun was the first to tweet the two sides were finalizing a deal as well as the specific year-by-year terms. Jon Heyman reported the three-year, $35MM base contract with deferrals (tweet) and fourth year option. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation added that the option was for $13MM (tweet).

Orioles “Expect” To Land Both Gallardo, Fowler

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FEB. 20: The Orioles are “closer than ever” to signing Gallardo, reports Encina. The two sides are nearing agreement on a three-year deal in the $35MM to $40MM range. Executive vice president Dan Duquette says a deal is not imminent. It’s worth noting that the Orioles tend to be very fastidious with final contract details and physicals. A final announcement may not come tonight, but it’s looking increasingly likely.

FEB. 19: The specific holdup in talks between the Orioles and Gallardo aren’t clear, but an opt-out clause is not the cause for the delay, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Baltimore is not going to give Gallardo an opt-out clause, and the pitcher’s camp is not demanding one in negotiations.

FEB. 18: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun hears that Fowler has recently been seeking a four-year deal or, at least, more than $45MM on a three-year deal. Baltimore’s reportedly increased willingness to spend bodes well for the two sides being able to bridge that gap. Encina writes that the O’s “don’t seem to be in a rush” to complete either deal, noting that fans shouldn’t expect to see either in camp today. Encina echoes the sentiment that the O’s ultimately expect to sign both, however.

FEB. 17, 7:35pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports some of the parameters being discussed by the Orioles and Fowler (links to Twitter). The two sides are exploring a deal that would pay Fowler $12-13MM per season over a two- to three-year term, Olney hears. That’s a hike from previous comparisons to Howie Kendrick’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Dodgers, but even $12-13MM over a two- or three-year deal represents, from my vantage point, a rather nice value for the Orioles.

Olney adds that it is the Orioles’ “expectation” that they will sign both Gallardo and Fowler, with Gallardo bolstering the starting pitching and Fowler becoming the team’s everyday right fielder.

1:03pm: We checked in earlier today on the Orioles’ efforts to make some late additions of qualifying offer-bound free agents, as reports have suggested continued optimism that Baltimore will finalize a deal with righty Yovani Gallardo. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears much the same (links to Twitter), and adds that the O’s are “confident” they’ll land outfielder Dexter Fowler as well.

Notably, per Kubatko, the O’s have yet to agree with the dollars being sought by their open-market targets — suggesting that there’s a bit more ground to cover than some minor contract provisions. He adds, interestingly, that the price tag on one or both players has “apparently changed recently.”

The expected cost of these players at this stage of the market remains a bit murky, though we have heard suggestions on both. Gallardo was said to be nearing agreement on a deal that would pay him in the $40MM to $45MM range over a three-year term. And Fowler has reportedly drawn interest from the O’s at around two years and $20MM.

While there’s still confidence in adding multiple players, Kubatko says that the Orioles would be interested in reaching agreement with Fowler whether or not a deal is first finalized with Gallardo. Adding either player would require the sacrifice of the 14th overall pick in this summer’s amateur draft, while signing both would spread that cost somewhat since the O’s next selection currently stands as the 29th choice.

Meanwhile, Baltimore still isn’t ruling out a move for Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce. But it appears that the interest is tepid, as the team has real concerns about the former star’s ability to bounce back after two consecutive disappointing campaigns.

Latest On Orioles’ Outfield, Pitching Searches

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Here’s the latest on the Orioles’ search for outfield and pitching help, via various O’s beat writers on Twitter, including the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli.

  • A previous report had indicated that the Orioles “expected” to sign both Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, each of whom rejected qualifying offers at the beginning of the offseason. At least according to Orioles exec Dan Duquette (via Encina), though, that might not be the case — he says the Orioles are currently considering the value of the draft picks the team would forfeit as a result of signing Fowler and Gallardo (currently Nos. 14 and 29 overall) and how those draft picks impact those players’ value.
  • Kubatko writes that the Orioles are considering other outfield options besides Fowler, noting that other available free agents would not require the loss of a draft pick. Of course, there’s the possibility that stance could be a ploy by the Orioles’ to drive Fowler’s asking price down. The two sides had reportedly been considering potential two- and three-year deals, although another report indicated Fowler as seeking at least four years, or over $45MM on a three-year contract.
  • According to Ghiroli, the O’s haven’t yet seen Tim Lincecum pitch. The Orioles have repeatedly been connected to Lincecum, although they’re waiting to see how he looks after having worked his way back from hip issues.

East Notes: Gallardo, Mets, Harrison, Fernandez

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Talks between the Orioles and Yovani Gallardo are still ongoing and still positive, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Though it’s been quite some time since we first heard a deal was nearing completion, there’s continued optimism that an agreement can be pushed across the finish line in the days to come.

Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • Despite losing Jenrry Mejia to a lifetime PED ban, the Mets don’t expect to add a reliever on a major league deal, GM Sandy Alderson told reporters, including ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). If anything, Alderson suggested, a late-spring trade for a pen arm could be pursued if there was a need.
  • The Phillies don’t expect lefty Matt Harrison to appear at camp this spring after a recent trip to a back specialist, GM Matt Klentak told reporters, including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). Indeed, it would seemingly come as a surprise if he returns to pitch all season as he continues to deal with serious back issues. Harrison went to Philadelphia as part of the financial balancing in last summer’s Cole Hamels trade, and his new club would stand to recoup some insurance proceeds for whatever period he is unable to work. Though he had rather remarkably returned to the hill for Texas, Harrison hasn’t suited up since.
  • Jose Fernandez of the Marlins is the next NL East ace whose post-Tommy John innings will be watched, and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that there’s yet to be any kind of determination on the number he’ll be allowed to throw. Meanwhile, new skipper Don Mattingly indicated that a 180-inning limit has at least been batted around, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. The issue could have bearing not only on Miami’s prospects for the coming season, but also Fernandez’s own career trajectory and relationship with the club.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Castillo, Trumbo, Cash

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Despite the team’s poor finish in 2014, there are few spots on the Red Sox roster that are up for grabs this spring, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The starting lineup is set, and the bench will consist of backup catcher Ryan Hanigan, offseason signee Chris Young, Brock Holt and Travis Shaw. Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith, Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross ar locks for the ’pen, and the final two spots could be somewhat influenced by the fact that lefty Tommy Layne and right-hander Steven Wright are out of minor league options. Lauber lists four players that could make strong impressions on decision-makers and end up factoring into the team later in the year — left-hander Brian Johnson, right-hander Pat Light, first baseman Sam Travis and outfielder Brennan Boesch, the latter of whom had his best years on the Tigers, when Dave Dombrowski was general manager.

Here’s more from the AL East…

  • The potential upgrade from deploying Rusney Castillo in left field over Hanley Ramirez is striking, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Acknowledging the extreme sample-size caveat, MacPherson points out that Castillo rated at +9 runs in 200 innings, per Defensive Runs Saved, whereas Ramirez rated at -19 DRS. While the 90-run difference resulting from extrapolating those numbers isn’t a realistic expectation, it does highlight the potentially dramatic improvement that could result from improved outfield athleticism.
  • The potential addition of Pedro Alvarez to the Orioles’ lineup would push Mark Trumbo into right field, though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com spoke to a scout who has a more optimistic take of Trumbo in the outfield than most reports. The scout to whom Kubatko spoke graded Trumbo as a 50 on the 20-80 scale in the outfield (average). “He’s not going to hurt you out there,” the scout said. “He’s athletic in the outfield. He’ll be fine. He’s got a good arm, he’s a good athlete, he’s a good fielder.” Trumbo, though, has long drawn poor reviews from scouts in the outfield and rates considerably below average in the outfield corners per DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating.
  • Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune spoke to Rays manager Kevin Cash about the difference heading into his second season as a manager. Cash said that he learned a seemingly incalculable number of lessons from his first year on the job and stressed the importance of communicating to some of his pitchers that weren’t particularly pleased with the short leashes they were afforded last year. “That’s my job,” Cash explained. “You’ve got to be able to communicate that. I’m learning this on the fly. I never had to be that guy. Now it was, ‘OK, go tell someone why he’s getting taken out of the ballgame and explain that.’ I don’t know if you ever have a perfect message. But you get more comfortable with experience.” Cash drew rave reviews from his predecessor, Joe Maddon, especially considering that last season was Cash’s first managing at any level. “I couldn’t have done the job he did last year,” said Maddon. “I had all those years in the minors, all those experiences at all those outposts, nobody watching.” Cash also drew quite a bit of praise from Evan Longoria, who spoke very positively

Orioles Notes: Shields, Kemp, Schoop, Lee, Lincecum

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The Orioles’ offseason shopping seems to be far from over, and here’s some more on the team’s winter maneuvering from MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko…

  • Andrew Cashner wasn’t the only Padre to draw interest from the Orioles, as the O’s also discussed James Shields and Matt Kemp in talks with San Diego.  Shields has been the subject of some trade speculation this winter but there hasn’t been much solid buzz around the veteran following his somewhat disappointing 2015 campaign.  Shields allowed a career-high 17.6% homer rate last year despite pitching home games at Petco Park, which certainly would be a concern for a team playing in hitter-friendly Camden Yards.  Shields can opt out of his contract after 2016, and if he chooses to remain in his current deal, he’s owed $44MM in 2017-18 (counting the buyout of his 2019 club option).  That opt-out and Shields’ age make him a trickier trade candidate than Cashner, despite Shields’ stronger career track record and history of success in the AL East.
  • Kemp, meanwhile, was also an Orioles target last winter before the outfielder was dealt from the Dodgers to the Padres.  Kemp would provide the O’s with a bat beyond their rumored targets of Dexter Fowler, Pedro Alvarez and Jay Bruce, and he might come at a discounted price since San Diego would obviously have to eat a healthy chunk of the $86MM owed to Kemp through the 2019 season (the Dodgers are also paying $14MM of that total).  Kemp’s hitting has been inconsistent over the last three seasons, however, and Baltimore’s outfield defense would take a big hit with either Kemp or Mark Trumbo getting regular playing time.  As Kubatko puts it, Kemp is “still not coming to Baltimore,” so it may be that the O’s have moved on.
  • Several teams have asked Baltimore about Jonathan Schoop but the O’s aren’t listening to offers involving the young second baseman.
  • Minor league southpaw Chris Lee is also getting attention in trade talks, and while Lee doesn’t seem as untouchable as Schoop, Kubatko says the Orioles “would like to hold onto” the left-hander.  Lee was recently ranked as the seventh-best prospect in Baltimore’s system by Baseball America after a 2015 that saw him make his Double-A debut.  The Orioles acquired Lee from Houston last May for two international bonus slots.
  • The Orioles are planning to watch Tim Lincecum’s upcoming throwing session once the date is finalized.  The O’s were linked to Lincecum earlier this month and they’ll likely be one of several teams interested in seeing if the former two-time NL Cy Young Award winner is looking healthy.
  • Beyond Lincecum, “the Orioles are pretty much open to any bounceback candidate coming off an injury,” Kubatko writes.  This search would include Cliff Lee, though the O’s don’t seem to feel that the veteran southpaw wants to pitch in 2016.

Orioles Notes: McIlvaine, Kim, Gallardo, Fowler

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The Orioles have officially announced the hiring of Joe McIlvaine as special assistant to Executive VP Dan Duquette. McIlvaine, a former player, was the Padres GM from 1991 through mid-1993. He then transitioned to the Mets GM post from August 1993 through 1997. Since then, he has experience as a special assistant with the Twins and Mariners.

Here’s more out of Baltimore:

  • Hyun-soo Kim is projected to be a roughly league average player, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system foresees a .273/.338/.420 batting line with 18 home runs. Duquette had praise for Kim, citing his high average and penchant to walk more than he strikes out. Meanwhile, manager Buck Showalter complimented Kim’s “big personality.” He believes he’ll be a good clubhouse fit despite the language barrier. The team is still in the market for an outfielder, but Kim is likely to start in either left or right field. His experience in the KBO came in left field.
  • A decision to sign Yovani Gallardo and/or Dexter Fowler could have far reaching repercussions, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Both players rejected a qualifying offer and thus will cost a draft pick to sign. The O’s farm system is considered to be lagging behind many others. Forgoing their top one or two picks could hamstring future rebuilding efforts. As Schmuck writes, this is the club’s best opportunity to upgrade the roster – especially if the current unit fails to reach the postseason. Baltimore has an uphill battle in the always tough AL East where none of their rivals will offer an easy contest.

Cafardo On Managers, Shields, Lee, Otani

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Here’s the latest from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo:

  • Cafardo asked a variety of MLB players, managers, coaches and front office personnel who the best managers in the game were and compiled his annual ranking of the 30 skippers. Topping the list is Joe Maddon of the Cubs, whose sabermetric strategies have “revolutionized” managing much in the way Tony La Russa’s tactics did a generation ago, according to Cafardo. Maddon is followed by Bruce Bochy of the Giants and Buck Showalter of the Orioles.
  • The Padres could potentially wait to trade James Shields until this summer’s deadline, Cafardo writes. While Shields’ first year in San Diego was not terrible, he might have spooked potential suitors with the 33 home runs he allowed last season. If he were to get off to a good start in 2016, that might rebuild his trade value.
  • Chris Lee will be one of the Orioles’ “must-see” pitchers this Spring, Cafardo writes, noting that Lee throws 97 MPH with a good changeup and slider. The Astros traded Lee to the Orioles last May for only a pair of international bonus spots. However good his stuff might be, Lee’s statistics don’t yet indicate that he’s a top prospect — in 145 innings last year, he only struck out 98 batters. It should perhaps be noted, though, that the Orioles promoted him very aggressively, and he was quite young for Double-A by the time he reached that level.
  • Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Shohei Otani has been training with his team in Arizona, and as we noted yesterday, he’s been generating a lot of buzz. As Cafardo notes, the 22-year-old isn’t likely to be posted anytime soon, although US-based scouts feel he could be a star in the Majors, either as a hitter or a pitcher. “He can do both,” says a scout from the American League. “He’s going to have to make a choice. Either way he’s going to be an All-Star-caliber player as a hitter or pitcher.” With his triple-digit fastball, Otani will likely remain a pitcher.

Rosenthal Latest: O’s, White Sox, Ethier, Padres, A’s

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There’s plenty of trade chatter as camp approaches, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes in a column today. That’s already been made evident by the notable deal struck earlier this evening. As always, a full read is recommended, but here are some of the highlights of the post:

  • The Orioles would prefer to add Dexter Fowler after signing Yovani Gallardo — assuming they can get that deal done — says Rosenthal. But if that doesn’t work out for some reason, Baltimore’s backup plan would be to pursue a deal for Jay Bruce. The Reds appear to have realistic expectations with the veteran, who hasn’t been consistently productive in recent years and is owed $12.5MM this year (with a $13MM option for another season). Indeed, getting something done would likely require rather modest expectations. Though Bruce has shown quite a bit of talent over the years, and is still shy of thirty years of age, his track record over the past two seasons (.222/.288/.406) isn’t inspiring.
  • The White Sox could be a threat on Fowler or other free agent outfielders, per the report. Chicago seems to have more interest in adding there than in pursuing Ian Desmond, as the team likes its internal options at shortstop. The South Siders are pushing on multiple fronts and might well also line up a deal for Avisail Garcia if they make a significant addition. The willingness to be flexible and seek creative avenues to value could certainly serve the Sox well as the winter wraps up; the team already seems to have done well in securing Mat Latos at just $3MM.
  • Chicago’s interest in Andre Ethier has been overstated, says Rosenthal, but the Dodgers have indeed explored trade scenarios. It’s a complicated decision, as he notes, since Ethier has been plenty useful. Then there’s the fact that his contract status comes with some intricacies. Ethier is set to reach ten-and-five rights early in the year, and his vesting clause poses a bit of a barrier for possible suitors. From my perspective, it remains somewhat difficult to see another organization being willing to take on enough salary (and/or give back enough value) to make a deal work out. There’s $38MM still to go over two years, plus the threat of a reasonably attainable vesting clause, and that’s quite a bit for a player who will soon turn 34 and would come with expectations of being a solid regular rather than a difference maker.
  • While the Padres are still looking around for deals, discussing players like Matt Kemp and Derek Norris, near-term deals for those prominent names appear unlikely. Likewise, the Athletics have had talks involving Billy Butler, and may even have had one opportunity to deal the struggling DH. Butler is more expendable than ever with Khris Davis now in the fold, though that addition hardly makes a trade inevitable given how much Butler is owed. Oakland will presumably hope he can rebuild value by carrying momentum from a solid finish to an otherwise rough 2015.

Orioles Discussing Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo

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FEB. 12, 6:38pm: A deal isn’t expected to come together this evening, Kubatko tweets.

9:06am: There’s some hope that the deal could be completed today, tweets Heyman, though the two sides are still debating whether the deal would be three years or three years plus an option, he notes. Once the Orioles have Gallardo’s deal wrapped up, the focus will shift to a bat, Heyman adds. They’ve been linked to Dexter Fowler, Jay Bruce and Pedro Alvarez recently.

FEB. 10, 5:07pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that “if and when” the deal between the Orioles and Gallardo is finalized, he’ll be guaranteed $40-45MM over three years.

10:40am: There’s momentum toward a deal, but some “tweaks” in the proposed terms are needed to finalize a pact, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).

9:54am: The sides are “moving close” to a contract that would include three guaranteed years, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. It’s possible that an opt-out would be included, adds Heyman, who notes that an agreement is not yet in place. Baltimore appears to be in the lead to add Gallardo and already recently began reviewing his medicals, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com adds.

9:30am: The Orioles are “making progress” in contract talks with free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has long been said to be interested in the soon-to-be 30-year-old, but this report provides the first indication of deepening negotiations.

Gallardo declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers at the outset of the offseason, of course, and thus requires a signing team to sacrifice a draft pick to sign. In the Orioles’ case, the team would stand to part with its first-round choice — currently, the 14th overall selection. And it has been hesitant to do that after already missing out on possible comp picks in two cases (Matt Wieters and Chris Davis).

It’s not clear to what extent other teams remain involved in the hunt for the veteran, but many of the organizations that seemed plausible landing spots have taken alternative routes to building out their rotation. For instance, the Astros signed Doug Fister and the White Sox added Mat Latos. Recent reports also suggest that the Rockies are no longer in pursuit of Gallardo.

The qualifying offer is obviously a factor in Gallardo’s market, as it is with any player who receives one, but the bigger question in his value lies in how you view his results against his peripherals. As Tyler Clippard’s signing just proved, a lengthy track record of excellence may not always translate to corresponding earnings in free agency, even for somewhat younger pitchers, where there’s a lot of wear-and-tear and signs of declining underlying ability.

In the case of Gallardo, there’s plenty to like about his recent run prevention record, which includes 184 innings of 3.42 ERA pitching last year. But he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall all the way to 5.9 per nine with his walks rising to 3.3 BB/9. And Gallardo’s average fastball has declined by more than two miles per hour from his highest annual mean velocity.

It’s obvious to see why the Orioles are interested in bolstering a rotation that’s now without Wei-Yin Chen (who at least left a comp pick when he departed). There are options, to be sure. But there isn’t much in the way of upside — Kevin Gausman probably carries the most — and even some of the depth comes with its own questions. Baltimore figures to utilize Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez in the starting five, with pitchers such as Odrisamer Despaigne, Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson also factoring into the competition.

Ultimately, it’s not clear that Gallardo would end up representing a truly significant upgrade over Baltimore’s current options, but he’s an established arm with a nice track record of durability. It’s worth noting, too — as Steve Adams pointed out to me — that his strong groundball rate (49.3% last year) would figure to play well with a high-quality Orioles infield defense to back him.

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