Red Sox Shopping Hanley Ramirez
There’s “talk in the front office” that new Red Sox baseball chief Dave Dombrowski is trying to move Hanley Ramirez, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. Cafardo adds that the Mariners, Orioles, and Angels “seem to be the targets” of DD’s campaign to relocate the pricey veteran after he turned in a massively disappointing season in 2015. It’s not immediately clear if those three clubs have interest, however.
Of course, trading Ramirez is probably easier said than done. Just last week, five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take on Ramirez even if the Red Sox picked up the tab on half of his remaining salary. Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
For their part, the Sox say that they’re still committed to Ramirez playing first base for them in 2016. They’re also hopeful that the soon-to-be 32-year-old can bounce back by dropping some weight. Ramirez was officially listed at 225 pounds this season but he was apparently tipping the scales at 240 pounds. All in all, Ramirez’s first year in Boston was dreadful. Despite hitting 19 home runs, he produced just a .291 OBP, and he struggled horribly with the transition from the infield to left field. At the time of his signing, Ramirez was coming off of a year in which he posted a .283/.369/.448 slash line with 13 homers for the Dodgers with a .300/.373/.500 slash line for his career.
On a related note, Cafardo hears that the Red Sox have discussed free agent slugger Chris Davis internally. However, that would only be doable if the Red Sox were able to move Ramirez. Also, the Red Sox would have to weigh their desire to add Davis’ bat against their need for a frontline starter.
Orioles Notes: Davis, Pitching, Morneau, Hardy
The Orioles were right to extend Matt Wieters a qualifying offer even though the plan backfired, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNmidatlantic.com. Dubroff’s wish list for the club includes first baseman Chris Davis, a starting pitcher, and a quality outfielder. He doesn’t expect the club’s payroll to exceed $130MM to $140MM. With about $100MM committed to their current roster, the club has just enough money to pay Davis and one other substantial piece.
- The three-year, $36MM contract signed by J.A. Happ serves to set the market floor for mid-tier starting pitchers, per Dubroff. Possible Orioles targets like Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, John Lackey, and Jeff Samardzija can expect to earn more than Happ. If the club retains the space to re-sign Davis, then they’re out on any of the top market starting pitchers.
- Dubroff also looks at first basemen past Davis. Several like Chris Parmelee, Kelly Johnson, Travis Ishikawa, Mark Reynolds, and Steve Pearce have already appeared with the Orioles. None would represent a fan-inspiring signing. Should the club fall short on Davis, Dubroff suggests a one-year flyer on Justin Morneau as one alternative.
- While Baltimore may look to free agency for additions, current players need to step up their game too, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. In particular, J.J. Hardy, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez are listed as three players in need of a rebound. Injuries have ruined Hardy’s last two seasons, especially at the plate. Tillman, once a promising pitching prospect, is coming off his worst season since 2011. Gonzalez is entering his age 32 season after posting career worst numbers across the board.
AL East Notes: Price, Happ, Davis, Maeda
The Blue Jays‘ signing of lefty J.A. Happ strongly suggests that David Price won’t be returning to Toronto next year, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. Price’s acquisition was emblematic of the go-for-broke approach former GM Alex Anthopoulos took, and it isn’t like new team president Mark Shapiro to make similarly dramatic, risky moves. Instead, Shapiro and interim GM Tony LaCava have addressed the Jays’ rotation needs more quietly, with the signing of Happ, the re-signing of Marco Estrada and their trade for Jesse Chavez. “We obviously had multiple holes to fill in our pitching staff, and our front-office team felt diversifying the risk among multiple pitchers who could start was important, both due to our need at the (big-league) level and our lack of Triple-A depth starting pitchers,” Shapiro says. Here’s more from the AL East.
- Happ wasn’t the same pitcher he was in Pittsburgh as he had been previously, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca writes. He allowed fewer walks, his velocity increased, and he leaned harder on his fastball, leading to a brilliant 1.85 ERA in 11 starts. The Blue Jays, then, will have to see if the adjustments Happ made in Pittsburgh can continue to help him.
- No one involved with sports negotiations likes the phrase “hometown discount,” but if Chris Davis is to return to the Orioles, he’ll have to give them that discount, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. The Orioles believe they can make Davis a competitive offer, just not one quite as large as he might be able to get elsewhere. They can hope that such a competitive offer might be enough to lure Davis, a beloved player in Baltimore and a good fit at Camden Yards, to return. Davis’ agent Scott Boras might have something to say about that, of course, but as Connolly notes, the choice will ultimately be Davis’.
- Japanese righty Kenta Maeda could be one possibility for the Red Sox this offseason, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. Maeda recently asked his NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, to post him. With the Tigers, new Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski wasn’t usually a top bidder for the best talents from abroad. The Sox, however, have signed top foreign players like Yoan Moncada, Rusney Castillo and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so perhaps they’ll be contenders for Maeda as well. Maeda could represent a lower-priced alternative to top free agents like Price and Zack Greinke.
AL East Notes: Davis, Orioles, Price, Yankees
The Orioles remain tight-lipped on the progress of their offseason talks with Chris Davis and agent Scott Boras, but one person within the organization at least termed the discussions thus far as “productive,” writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. According to Kubatko, the Orioles aren’t turned off by the notion that Davis could command a six- or seven-year pact ranging from $24MM to $26MM in annual value. If nothing else, he notes, the fact that the Orioles haven’t simply walked away due to that price tag is telling of their desire to retain Davis. However, waiting on Davis is at least somewhat risky, as it’s possible that many of Baltimore’s alternatives will sign elsewhere in the meantime, leaving little in the way of options should the team ultimately prove unable to retain the slugger.
A few more items pertaining to the AL East…
- The Orioles are “searching everywhere” for outfield help, writes CSNMidAtlantic.com’s Rich Dubroff. At present, there are seven players on Baltimore’s 40-man roster with outfield experience, but only Adam Jones is the only established regular among them, Dubroff notes. Arbitration eligible players like David Lough and Nolan Reimold could be non-tendered next week, Dubroff writes, though Reimold is a better bet to return than Lough, he adds.
- Former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos was a recent guest on the WEEI Hot Stove show, and in discussing David Price‘s impact on the Jays, Anthopoulos called him the “best teammate I’ve ever seen.” Anthopoulos lauded Price for his work ethic and the way in which that rubs off on other players as well as the leadership he exudes in the clubhouse. Said Anthopoulos: “He brings something else more than just the two ERA and the 240 innings and everything else. He leads. He sets a great example. He’ll be a great get for any team that gets him.”
- Chad Jennings of the Journal News profiles some of the potential bargain help on the Yankees‘ roster. While names like Dellin Betances and Luis Severino are obvious picks, Jennings also points out the potential bargain the team could have acquired in buying low on Dustin Ackley, who seems likely to handle the bulk of New York’s second base duties next season. Ackley hit a robust .288/.333/.654 in his tiny sample of work with the Yankees, but getting out of Safeco Field could help him realize his potential. Brendan Ryan‘s $1MM salary looks like a bargain when compared to the two-year, $3.75MM contract commanded by a similar player — Cliff Pennington. And, the Yankees’ successful buy-low on Didi Gregorius last offseason has left the team with a shortstop whose production will far outreach his salary in the coming years.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11-25-15
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Rays released catcher J.P. Arencibia after recently designating him for assignment, per the team’s transactions page. Arencibia, 29, had an impressive 24-game run with Tampa Bay late in the season, but it wasn’t enough for the club to tender him a contract. He ought to get plenty of interest as a free agent from teams looking for major-league-capable receiving options.
- Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen cleared outright waivers, the club announced. Though his talent has always been evident, Hultzen’s shoulder has not been willing. Despite going second overall in the 2011 draft, Hultzen has yet to tally 200 professional innings pitched.
- Backstop Adrian Nieto tweets that he’s signed on with the Marlins. Nieto was a Rule 5 pick of the White Sox who stuck on the big league roster for all of 2014, but the switch-hitter didn’t hit much at the Double-A level last year and lost his roster spot in Chicago.
- The Orioles announced a host of minor league signings today. Among the notable names are righties Pedro Beato and Todd Redmond, lefty Cesar Cabral, and catcher Audry Perez. The 29-year-old Beato has 93 1/3 innings of MLB experience under his belt, while Redmond was a regular part of the Blue Jays’ pen from 2013-14 before losing his job last year. Cabral and Perez both have much more limited MLB experience. They each return to the Baltimore organization after spending most of 2015 at Triple-A Norfolk.
- The Blue Jays have signed lefty Scott Diamond to a minor league deal, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports. The 29-year-old will receive a big league camp invite after tossing 150 1/3 solid Triple-A frames last year in the Rays organization.
Heyman’s Latest: Madson, Iwakuma, Alvarez, Zobrist, O’s, Perez, Freese
Let’s take a look in at the latest reporting from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who touched upon several notable stories today (all via his Inside Baseball column, except as otherwise noted):
- The Dodgers have had contact with free agent righty Ryan Madson, Heyman says. The veteran, who enjoyed a remarkable turnaround last year, could be one of several options as Los Angeles looks to beef up its pen.
- The Mariners have long said that re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma is a priority, and GM Jerry Dipoto reaffirmed that stance only days ago. Heyman writes that the club is “willing to go to around $24 million or so over two years” for the accomplished veteran. It’s not entirely clear whether there’s any willingness to go beyond that amount, but it seems a bit light for a pitcher of Iwakuma’s ability. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts a three-year, $45MM deal for the righty.)
- Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez would welcome a trade, writes Heyman. It’s been known for awhile that Alvarez is on the block due to his rising arbitration salary, poor glove and struggles with left-handed pitching. The Pirates almost certainly don’t want to pay Alvarez his projected $8.1MM salary next season and could very well non-tender him next week if they can’t find a taker. Heyman notes that the Orioles make some sense, and I’d add the Athletics as a speculative fit also. He’s probably best off with an AL club where he can DH, but it’s also fun to think of the power numbers Alvarez could log at Coors Field.
- The Cardinals are among the most interested teams in Ben Zobrist and have reached out to his representatives at Octagon, reports Heyman. Zobrist was linked to the Cardinals last week, and Heyman notes that there are as many as 20 teams believed to have interest in the versatile switch-hitter. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets that the Cardinals are indeed in the mix, but it remains to be seen whether they can sell Zobrist on a super-utility role (an “uber-role,” as Goold terms it). Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base.
- While the Orioles are prioritizing an effort to bring back Chris Davis, the club has legitimate interest in outfielder Alex Gordon. Meanwhile, Heyman says that he’d be surprised if the club pursues Gerardo Parra as a corner outfield option, since “they weren’t all that impressed by him” over the last several months.
- The Royals may be “willing to at least talk” with the reps of backstop Salvador Perez about “reworking” his early-career extension. That contract has become almost comically team-friendly since it was signed — a reflection of both the significant risk taken on by the team at the time and the extent to which Perez has rewarded that trust. It’s not entirely clear what kind of scenario could be pursued, but all indications are that Kansas City would be bargaining from a position of strength.
- There’s at least “a bit” of contact between the Angels and free agent third baseman David Freese, says Heyman. A reunion continues to appear possible, though the club will likely look to see how some other market possibilities play out before committing to the veteran.
Orioles Interested In Yovani Gallardo
The Orioles have made contact with the representatives of Yovani Gallardo to express interest in the free agent righty, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Encina cautions that it is still early in the process and there does not appear to be any likelihood of near-term movement. Indeed, we heard recently that Gallardo’s agent expects it to take some time for his market to develop.
Gallardo, 29, took the twentieth spot on the top fifty free agent list of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes. While he no longer profiles as a top-of-the-rotation arm, Gallardo fits in the mold of other recent free agent hurlers who have commanded four-year deals at better than $12MM annually. Dierkes predicts that he can achieve a $52MM guarantee on the open market.
Of course, one of those recent comparables — Ubaldo Jimenez — signed his deal with Baltimore two years ago. That contract was, and still is, the richest pitching contract ever given out by the club.
The O’s needed to give up a draft pick to sign Jimenez, and the same would be required to add Gallardo, who declined a qualifying offer from the Rangers. Baltimore owns the 15th overall pick in this year’s draft and stands to add two more top selections if and when Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen sign with new teams.
Baltimore’s staff certainly appears to be in need of supplementation, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explained in his offseason outlook piece on the club. Gallardo comes with his share of risk — metrics suggest that his sub-3.50 ERA over the last two seasons has been about half a run per nine lucky — but he has been exceedingly durable and has a a nice overall track record of production.
Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen
After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.
Strengths/Pros
Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings. That ranks 28th among all qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a historically strong free agent class. While Chen is not an ace, he’s had better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.
Chen is not going to beat himself. His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced than even Zack Greinke. Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a lower weighted on-base average against them. Chen throws hard for a southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6 miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.
Chen features a healthy left arm. His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique strain in 2013. In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least 31 starts. Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.
Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July. He’s younger than mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years palatable and five years possible.
Weaknesses/Cons
If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great. Though he had that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was 3.91. Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano. I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here. Chen’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league average. His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in baseball. To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark. Even then, the expectation should be league average innings.
On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged 6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons. Among those with at least 60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46. Samardzija and Leake will regularly go deeper into games than Chen.
Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. This is a disadvantage for Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda. Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust market for free agent pitching.
Personal
Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball, according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. He reportedly received offers from Japanese and MLB teams at the time. According to Newman, Chen chose to sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen. After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006. Newman tells me the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei contract. He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in 2009. At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011 season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with the posting system. Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a fourth year. Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for $8.15MM. Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history. Chen’s big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the game was carried on three national TV networks.
Market
The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to re-sign Chen. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June due to a roster crunch. Chen’s market could include teams such as the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, D’Backs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees. According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in the offseason. As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the qualifying offer. Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen. There are four potential $100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen, Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda. I project this to be the $80MM range, and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three. Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be posted. Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier. If Chen drops down to four years, he could be compared to Kazmir. Kazmir is no horse himself, and he’s a year and a half older than Chen.
Expected Contract
I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is possible, I believe he’ll get five. Next year’s free agent market is one factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group, which might be important to forward-looking teams. There’s also the Boras factor. He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe. He routinely gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those coming off a good year. There’s also good old-fashioned earned run average. A 3.34 ERA still sounds really good. If Boras has a team owner’s ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the basis of that ERA. ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade. While I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for Chen.
Orioles Acquire L.J. Hoes, Designate Andy Wilkins For Assignment
The Orioles announced that they have re-acquired outfielder L.J. Hoes in a trade with the Astros and designated first baseman Andy Wilkins for assignment in order to clear room on the 40-man roster.
Hoes, who will turn 26 years of age in March, was initially acquired by the Astros alongside lefty Josh Hader in the 2013 trade that send right-hander Bud Norris to Baltimore. He picked up 333 plate appearances with Houston over the parts of three seasons he spent in the organization, batting a collective .240/.292/.332 with four homers and seven stolen bases.
A right-handed batter, Hoes has had good success at the upper levels of the minor leagues, including a .299/.388/.399 batting line in parts of four seasons at the Triple-A level. He typically has more success against left-handed pitching and will give Baltimore some much-needed outfield depth. The Orioles cycled through an alarming number of corner outfield options in 2015 as Adam Jones held down the fort in center field, so he’ll present GM Dan Duquette and skipper Buck Showalter with a possible platoon option in the event that a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder is acquired.
As for Wilkins, the 27-year-old has bounced around the league quite a bit since making his big league debut with the White Sox in 2014. The former fifth-rounder hit just .140/.178/.186 in a minuscule sample of 45 plate appearances with the South Siders in ’14. This season, he was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays, who would eventually trade him to the Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations. The Dodgers lost Wilkins to the Orioles on waivers in early September, and he’ll again be in search of a new club now that he’s been designated by Baltimore. Wilkins launched 30 homers in Triple-A in 2014 and has a career .272/.324/.490 line at that level.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports first reported that Hoes was traded back to Baltimore (Twitter link). Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com tweeted that the Astros would receive cash considerations.
AL Notes: Iannetta, Gardner, Heyward, Orioles, Parra
The Mariners signed Chris Iannetta to be the team’s primary backstop, GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters, including Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (story link). Dipoto said that he sees Iannetta as a likely candidate to return to his prior levels of offensive performance. Meanwhile, the new GM explained that incumbent catcher Mike Zunino will have opportunities to earn time in a part-time role. “Mike comes in with an opportunity to win playing time,” Dipoto said. “A primary catcher is different from what I would consider an everyday player. There is no catcher who is going to go out and catch 162 games. Whether it be a time-share or a backup catcher, Mike is going to be in position to win some of that playing time. He’s still a young guy, and we need to get him back on track.”
Here’s more from the American League:
- The Angels and Yankees make for a good match on outfielder Brett Gardner, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times opines (Twitter links). Though Los Angeles would rather add a slugger in left, the team also needs an OBP threat at the top of the lineup and has the asset (starting pitching) that the Yanks are after. It probably doesn’t hurt that new Halos GM Billy Eppler just came over from New York. Of course, it remains to be see what kind of pitching asset New York GM Brian Cashman hopes to find, and what kind of value Eppler places on Gardner.
- Meanwhile, the Angels could still dabble at the top of the free agent market, says Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, who writes that the Halos “aren’t ruling out a pursuit” of Jason Heyward. That match makes sense on paper, of course, given the need and the club’s large budget. Of course, as MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez explained to me on last week’s MLBTR Podcast, the club’s ability to land a player of that magnitude will depend on the payroll levels approved by owner Arte Moreno.
- With so many needs, the Orioles are giving serious consideration to utilizing Trey Mancini at first base next year (assuming that Chris Davis departs in free agency), ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes (links to Twitter). The 23-year-old had a huge year at the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Though he feasted on opposing southpaws, he was quite good against right-handed pitching as well. Of course, leaping into the majors could be a big ask. But as Crasnick notes, there are limits to the teams other options. It lacks top-level system depth to trade from and is understandably uninterested in swapping young, MLB-level players such as Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop, he says.
- The Orioles have interest in a new deal with free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Crasnick also tweets. But Baltimore isn’t looking to go past two years with Parra, who was a trade deadline acquisition. From my perspective, that stance makes a reunion unlikely.