Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Orioles are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Jim Johnson (5.165): $10.8MM
- Chris Davis (4.061): $10MM
- Matt Wieters (4.129): $7.9MM
- Bud Norris (4.068): $5MM
- Tommy Hunter (4.066): $3.1MM
- Brian Matusz (3.156): $2.1MM
- Nolan Reimold (4.004): $1.2MM
- Troy Patton (3.150): $1.2MM
- Steve Pearce (4.116): $1.1MM
- Chris Dickerson (3.133): $700K
- Dan Johnson (3.168): Contract includes $800K club option for 2014. If declined, MLBTR's projected arbitration salary is equal to the league minimum $500K.
Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman. It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012. Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well.
This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise. Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM. The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM. We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras. Can Boras get there? After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis. Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras. Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014.
On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well. This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan. Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year. This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities. There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well.
That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever — his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs. Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role. The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons. This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014. "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market.
Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%. The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements. Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate. The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage. Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015. It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish.
Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise. He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot. Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds. He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable.
The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training. He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances. I think he'll stick around.
Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates. Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues. Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason. He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September. Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team.
If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players.
East Notes: A-Rod, Hawkins, Nationals, McLouth
Yesterday, lawyers for Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez were barred from holding a news conference with a person they described as a "major league baseball whistleblower" when the commissioner's office obtained an order from the arbitrator hearing the case, according to the Associated Press. As A-Rod takes care of his own offseason housekeeping, let's take a look at the latest from the AL and NL East..
- Mets closer LaTroy Hawkins will most likely see what's out there on the open market and won't agree to a new deal in Queens before that, a source tells Marc Carig of Newsday. However, there is certainly mutual interest in a return. Hawkins, 40, posted a 2.93 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 70.2 innings of work last season.
- James Wagner of the Washington Post conducted a Q&A with questions from Nationals fans regarding the offseason. One of the topics brought up was the club's need for better left-handed pitching out of the bullpen. Wagner cites free agent candidates such as ex-Nat J.P. Howell, Oliver Perez, Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty, and Michael Gonzalez, who is coming off of a tough year in Milwaukee.
- There's no better candidate for the Orioles' left field job than Nate McLouth, opines Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore. The veteran, who signed a one-year, $2MM pact with the O's last offseason, could be in line for a two-year, $10MM deal, according to Tim Dierkes. That price is likely too rich for Baltimore's blood.
- Rodriguez's camp has also flatly denied that the third baseman has used PEDs, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
AL Notes: Napoli, Tigers, Orioles, Ryan
Yesterday, the Associated Press reported MLB Chief Operating Officer Rob Manfred testified, during the Alex Rodriguez arbitration hearing, baseball did not concern itself if Biogenesis founder Tony Bosch distributed illegal substances to minors and was only interested in possible criminal activity involving players. Today, Manfred called the report "ridiculous" telling Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel his testimony was "totally out of context and mischaracterized" and accused the A-Rod camp of leaking the story. "The larger point is this: From our perspective, one of the reasons we pursue cases like the A-Rod case is we think players should be role models for kids," Manfred explained to Haudricourt. "It's almost comical that A-Rod, who already has admitted in the past he used steroids, would express an opinion on our stance on children and PEDs." The hearing will resume next month. In other news and notes from the American League:
- Mike Napoli's strong postseason is further proof his avascular necrosis is not an issue as he enters free agency for the second time, reports MLB.com's Lindsay Berra. Napoli was frustrated by having to settle for a one-year, $5MM deal (incentives pushed the eventual value to $13MM) after a three-year, $39MM contract was scrapped because of the AVN diagnosis. "I waited seven years for free agency and then got an opportunity, and it got taken away because of something I didn't even know I had and had never had any pain from," said Napoli. "I'm a little more confident about negotiating a contract now that I've shown all year that my hips aren't an issue, but I'm sure I'm going to have to go through all the steps again, with all the MRIs and talking to doctors."
- There are six questions the Tigers must answer this offseason, writes MLive.com's Chris Iott. Among the answers, Iott predicts Jim Leyland will return as manager, the Tigers will not re-sign Jhonny Peralta (despite his desire to remain in Detroit), but will re-sign Joaquin Benoit and Omar Infante.
- The Orioles don't have a lot of inventory to deal this winter after trading away six players in midseason acquisitions, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, and Steve Johnson head the list of tradeable players, according to Dubroff.
- Nolan Ryan left his imprint on the Rangers, especially the pitching staff, with his attitude and focus on conditioning, opines Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
- Ryan received a $10MM buyout (his ownership stake plus incentives) when he announced his retirement from the Rangers, Grant reports in separate article. However, according to Forbes, Ryan wound up losing money on his ownership investment. Ryan's original equity interest was valued at $13MM (6% ownership); but, dwindled to $7MM (1% ownership) because he declined to participate in various cash calls to cover his share of the losses the franchise incurred.
Cafardo On Tigers, Sandoval, La Russa, Blue Jays
After the Tigers were knocked out of the playoffs, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at some of the club's flaws. He starts at the top of the lineup, where Austin Jackson's .337 on-base percentage and eight stolen bases were not good enough of a contrast to the slow, power-hitting lineup that produced the best offense in baseball. Possible solutions this winter include Scott Boras clients Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury. “That’s the one team we haven’t heard Ellsbury’s name mentioned with,” said one American League GM. “We’ve heard a lot about the Mets, Mariners, Rangers, but the Tigers make perfect sense. They are a big-market team with big resources. There’s a relationship with Scott and Mr. Ilitch. They’ve done business before and there’s no reason they can’t do business again.” Here's more from today's column..
- The Giants would probably listen to anyone who had interest in Pablo Sandoval, but his weight will be an issue for clubs. However, his conditioning might not totally dissuade teams given the lack of third base options available.
- Tony La Russa is out there, but according to a Cubs source there’s been no contact with him. For his part, La Russa has told friends he’d rather be considered for a front office job than manage again.
- Two people in baseball operations with the Blue Jays indicated to Cafardo that they need two quality starting pitchers to go with Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey. They could take care of one of those spots by extending a qualifying offer to Josh Johnson.
- It doesn't appear that Justin Morneau will return to the Pirates but the Orioles could make a play for him this winter as they go for another bat. If Carlos Beltran is too pricey, Morneau could be an alternative even though the O's may prefer a right-handed bat like Mike Morse.
- The Red Sox went pretty far in their pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu, but ultimately they lost out to the White Sox. It was a sensitive negotiation for Boston out of respect for pending free agent Mike Napoli, who would have been affected by an Abreu signing.
- There’s some real talk about the possibility that the Rays could see Montreal as a real alternative if plans for a new stadium don’t work out in the Tampa area.
- One of the reasons why Nolan Ryan parted ways with the Rangers was because of the club's decision to let bench coach Jackie Moore go.
- The Yankees appear to be on the verge of shaking up their scouting and player development departments.
AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Price, Dickerson, Hammel
The Orioles need an ace and Rays David Price will likely be on the trade market this winter. However, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com doesn't see Tampa Bay even considering an intra-division trade and the O's might not have enough to land him. More from the AL East..
- Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com has a hard time imagining that the Rays would part with Price in a deal with Texas without the inclusion of Jurickson Profar. Without the shortstop being involved, the Rangers would have to exhaust much of the top part of their farm system. While sacrificing Profar would certainly sting, Texas has to be tempted by the idea of pairing Price with Yu Darvish at the top of their rotation.
- The Orioles have a lot of questions to address when it comes to their 40-man roster, including what to do with Chris Dickerson, writes Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com. The outfielder was one of the final players cut during spring training and rejoined the big league club during the first week of the season.
- Jason Hammel made $6.75MM with the Orioles in 2013 and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com asks how much he is worth to the O's in 2014. The right-hander had a strong 2012 season but followed it up with a 4.97 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in '13.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Adair, Rothschild, Williams
As is the case at the end of every season, there have been quite a few shakeups to coaching staffs around the game. Here's the latest on several situations around the league…
- Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that Rick Adair will not return as the Orioles pitching coach in 2014. Bullpen coach Bill Castro, who was named the team's interim pitching coach when Adair left the team to be with his dying father, is unlikely to be a candidate. The same goes for rehab coordinator Scott McGregor. The rest of the coaching staff will return, according to Kubatko.
- The Yankees and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have agreed to terms on a new deal, though nothing has been finalized or announced yet, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
- Kilgore tweets that the Nationals interviewed Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams for their managerial opening recently.
Earlier Updates
- Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Angels have hired Don Baylor as their hitting coach. The 64-year-old Baylor has served as the D-Backs' hitting coach since 2011 and has 21 years of coaching experience to go along with a 19-year playing career that saw him take home AL MVP honors when he played for the Angels in 1979. Arizona had asked him to return for 2014, but the Halos have announced that Baylor opted to take the position in Anaheim.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times points out some history between Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and Baylor, noting that Baylor was Dipoto's manager when Dipoto served as the Rockies' closer in 1997-98 (Twitter link).
- The Blue Jays nearing a deal with former Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to fill the same role in Toronto, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). Seitzer, a career .295/.375/.404 hitter in a 12-year big league career, has experience working with Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. Gibbons served as the Royals' bench coach for part of Seitzer's tenure with the club.
- Brad Ausmus is on the list of Nationals' managerial candidates, tweets Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal notes that it's unclear whether or not Ausmus has interviewed, though Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post indicated that the interview has yet to take place (also via Twitter).
- Kilgore writes in a full article for the Post that as of late last week, the Nats have yet to conduct any interviews. Bench coach Randy Knorr and third base coach Trent Jewett are still the strongest internal candidates, says Kilgore.
- Arash Markazi of ESPN Los Angeles provides readers with several quotes from Angels skipper Mike Scioscia's appearance on ESPNLA 710 radio. Scioscia says that he and Dipoto went through a series of "aggressive" meetings with ownership before they were informed they would return for the 2014 season. Scioscia said there's "no doubt" that he's on the same page as ownership and the front office after those talks.
Orioles Notes: Machado, Davis, Wieters, Reimold
With some of the most interesting and attractive trade and extension candidates in the game, and coming off of a season in which major, mid-season, veteran acquisitions failed to deliver a post-season appearance, the Orioles' off-season could be busy and creative or relatively quiet. Some notes out of Baltimore:
- The O's announced that Manny Machado's sscheduled surgery was successful. Surgeon Neal ElAttrache pegged the recovery period at the long end of the four to six months that was previously reported, however, which would almost certainly keep Machado on the pine to start the season. Executive VP Dan Duquette emphasized that this timetable was "conservative,"CSNBaltimore.com's Rich Dubroff reports, but also noted that the club will not push the rehab process.
- Baltimore's payroll is higher than many fans realize, Dubroff further writes. The club's mid-season additions bumped things up significantly, reaching the same neighborhood as the Reds.
- Dubroff also takes a useful look at the team's future commitments, noting that the club will probably end up paying nine players about $70MM after accounting for some substantial arbitration paydays.
- Indeed, that figure could even be higher. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz says that closer Jim Johnson and breakout star first baseman Chris Davis will merit $10.8MM salaries, with backstop Matt Wieters checking in just under $8MM. The $100MM line will come up rather quickly if the club seeks to return veteran free agents like Brian Roberts, Scott Feldman, and Nate McLouth. A big-name free agent probably isn't in the offing, Dubroff says, particularly if Duquette signs up Davis or Wieters to long-term pacts.
- In a separate article, Dubroff reports that the Orioles are likely to non-tender Nolan Reimold this offseason and try to re-sign him to an incentive-laden contract. The team likes Reimold's upside, but he just turned 30 and has appeared in only 286 games — 104 of which came in 2009. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a modest $1.2MM salary for Reimold, but it's hard to argue that he deserves that guarantee after his injury troubles.
- A source tells Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (Twitter links) that pending free agent Mike Morse will undergo arthroscopic surgery Wednesday at the Mayo Clinic to shave down a bone outgrowth in his left wrist. The 31-year-old will be able to resume some activities within four weeks and his left wrist should be healed within six to eight weeks.
Zach Links and Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Orioles Notes: Wieters, Machado, Hammel, Valencia
Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com feels that while there is a growing sentiment among some Orioles fans that Matt Wieters should be traded due to his declining offensive numbers, the backstop is part of the team's core and should instead be offered an extension. Melewski points out that Adam Jones was extended with two years of team control remaining — the same amount of team control the Orioles currently hold over Wieters. He adds that Wieters is a durable clubhouse leader that is entering his prime years, all of which should factor into the team's desire to retain him. The x-factor that isn't discussed by Melewski is Wieters' agent, Scott Boras. Few Boras clients sign extensions prior to free agency, though notable recent exceptions include Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez. More on the O's…
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado's surgery to repair the medial patellofemoral ligament in his left knee will take place today. The projected four-to-six-week timeframe for his recovery will have him ready sometime between the beginning of Spring Training and the early portion of April.
- From within that same piece, Connolly writes that Jason Hammel is behind Scott Feldman, Nate McLouth and Brian Roberts on the Orioles' "priority to re-sign" list. Connolly's assumption is that Hammel will hook on with another team. I could envision him signing a similar contract to that of Feldman last offseason — one year at $5-6MM with additional incentives based on innings pitched and/or games started.
- Lastly from Connolly, the out-of-options Danny Valencia figures to make the team in 2014 and could see more time in the field early on, depending on Machado's recovery. Connolly adds that despite Valencia's large numbers against left-handed pitching, a consistent DH who can get on base regularly will be an offseason priority for the Orioles.
Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers
While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:
- The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
- Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
- Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
- The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
- James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
- Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Piniella, Orioles, Beltran, Scherzer
Cubs prospect Albert Almora declared 12 years ago his intention to become a major league star, Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune writes. "I'm a quiet kid, just go out and do what I have to do. I like to just shut up and not say anything, let my game do the talking. It has worked so far," Almora says. The Cubs took the outfielder sixth overall in last year's draft, and though Almora missed time this year with injuries, he's six for 10 with five runs and six RBIs in two Arizona Fall League games. On to more Saturday night links…
- Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune spoke with former Stanford assistant coach Dean Stotz about A.J. Hinch, whom the Cubs are reportedly considering for their open manager position. While Hinch struggled during his previous tenure as manager of the Diamondbacks, Stotz, who coached Hinch in college at Stanford, praised his scouting and player development acumen and predicted that the next team that hires him "will be pleased."
- The Mariners' purported interest in Lou Piniella for their manager vacancy was overblown, Ryan Divish of The News Tribune reports. A team source tells Divish that there was no "full-court press" to bring Piniella back.
- Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun has more on Manny Machado's upcoming knee surgery, reporting that the Orioles initially hoped to rehab the tear to the third baseman's medial patellofemoral ligament but decided that doing so could result in a higher chance of an injury in the future. “The surgery is universally very successful in returning players back to play, including baseball players," Daryl Osbahr, the director of sports medicine research at MedStar Union Memorial Hospital, commented.
- The time may be right for Cal Ripken Jr. to accept a managing job outside of Baltimore, Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun writes. Buck Showalter has a long-term deal in place as the Orioles' manager, providing cover from fan backlash for both the team and Ripken if the O's legend decides to manage another club. Ripken has been connected to the Nationals in recent days.
- Mutual need for outfield production may lead to a bidding war between the Mets and the Phillies for Carlos Beltran, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News says. The Mets have money to spend and will look to improve upon an outfield that posted the worst OPS in the NL, while the Phillies may target Beltran, a switch hitter, for their lefty-heavy lineup, Murphy says.
- Cardinals President Bill DeWitt III discussed his team's success and the support it receives from St. Louis in an interview with MLB.com
- The Tigers may have to decide between keeping Max Scherzer for one more year or signing Miguel Cabrera to a new extension, according to Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected that Scherzer will make $13.6MM this offseason in his final year of arbitration. Recent reports suggest that the Tigers will consider trading Scherzer in the offseason.