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Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.

Manny Machado

Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.

Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.

With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.

Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.

It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

East Notes: Urena, Red Sox, Orioles

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The Marlins face a tricky decision with out-of-options righty Jose Urena, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Urena posted a 6.13 ERA last season (albeit with a somewhat more palatable 6.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) and has yet to establish himself in the Majors. At the same time, he has terrific velocity and a good prospect pedigree, so the Marlins likely don’t want to lose him. The Marlins’ additions of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke to their rotation and Brad Ziegler, Junichi Tazawa and Dustin McGowan to their bullpen means there’s limited space, however. A trade is a possibility, although Frisaro thinks that’s unlikely. Alternately, the Marlins could consider keeping 13 pitchers on their staff rather than 12, although that would limit their flexibility with their bench. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • The Orioles’ acquisition of Seth Smith this week should not impact their potential pursuit of Mark Trumbo, writes MASN’s Steve Melewski. The Orioles could still use Trumbo at DH, and their savings of about $4MM in the deal could possibly free up a bit of extra capital to sign him. As for Smith, he’s a platoon player, and neither he nor Hyun Soo Kim have much of a track record against lefties. That means the Orioles will likely continue to look for outfielders, presumably of the right-handed variety.
  • Money and the potential loss of amateur talent were key reasons the Red Sox didn’t seriously pursue Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Red Sox money both now and in future seasons, particularly given the possibility that they could reset their threshold this season, thus limiting their penalties in the future. Also, the new CBA calls for teams that exceed the threshold and sign a player who declined a qualifying offer to forfeit their second- and fifth-round draft picks and portions of their international bonus pools.

Duquette On O’s Plans After Seth Smith Trade

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After picking up outfielder Seth Smith from the Mariners in a deal that sent Yovani Gallardo to Seattle, Orioles VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told the media that his organization still wants to add to its outfield mix, as Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com was among those to report. Baltimore is also interested in adding some pitching depth with Gallardo leaving town.

Duquette seemingly framed the approach as one of seeking depth, but presumably the O’s will at least consider something more. It probably doesn’t hurt that turning Gallardo into Smith also freed up a bit of financial flexibility. The organization would surely like to add some more thump to its lineup, which no longer includes Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez.

Currently, Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource projects Trey Mancini to take DH duties. But while the 24-year-old had a solid season in the upper minors last year, he only made it to the majors for five games of action. And though it’s nice that he hit three home runs in his 15 MLB plate appearances, Mancini hit a relatively unexceptional twenty long balls and slugged. 458 in 611 trips to the plate in the minors. Point being: despite his promise, there’s reason to believe the O’s ought to seek a near-term upgrade.

Of course, both Trumbo and Alvarez are still available via free agency. The former is at least capable of playing the outfield, though defensive metrics have long cast doubt on that characterization. Among the free agent outfielders still available are Brandon Moss, Michael Saunders, Colby Rasmus, and longtime O’s nemesis Jose Bautista.

As for the rotation, Duqutte said that he felt the club was in a good position to move a starter. “We dealt from an area of surplus – we had six starters – to fill an area of need and that was left-handed hitting, on-base capability and an outfielder,” he said. “So, we liked the trade from that perspective. We reallocated some of our resources and I think, in the process, we strengthened our team.”

Given that assessment, it certainly sounds as if Baltimore will limit itself to swingman types or minor-league free agents. There are quite a few possible candidates still remaining that could meet that general description, so it’s all but impossible to assess where the team’s gaze might end up landing. Given Duquette’s propensity for waiting out the market, it could well be some time before we find out the full slate of arms that the O’s will have on hand this spring.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/6/17

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

  • Right-hander Zach Stewart has agreed to a minor league deal with the Orioles, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (the news was first reported by Korean media outlet Naver Sports — hat tip to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Once a well-regarded pitching prospect in the Reds organization, the 30-year-old Stewart is now a well-traveled veteran who will hope to return to the Majors for the first time since 2012 this coming season. He’s spent the past two years with the NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization and reportedly drew interest from the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles before agreeing to the deal with Baltimore. Stewart logged a 3.76 ERA with 217 strikeouts against 80 walks in 260 2/3 innings across the past two seasons in the KBO and has a career 4.08 ERA in parts of six Triple-A seasons. He’s also totaled 103 big league innings but struggled to a 6.82 ERA with 5.6 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 in that time.

Market Notes: Jays, Bruce, A’s, Plouffe, Dozier, Bautista, Trumbo, Lefty Relievers, Lewis

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Blue Jays may have misread the market for power bats this winter. In the case of Toronto, he suggests, the team ought to have been more patient with Edwin Encarnacion. By moving quickly to give a three-year deal to Kendrys Morales after Encarnacion declined to take the team’s early-offseason offer, the Jays may have spent much more than necessary to land a player of Morales’s quality while also tying their hands on Encarnacion, who ended up signing for one year and $20MM less than Toronto had reportedly offered.

  • The Mets, too, might have erred in their approach on Jay Bruce. He now seems a superfluous piece after the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, and Rosenthal says that he expects New York will need to pay down part of Bruce’s $13MM salary to deal him. The team picked up that option in large part to insure against the loss of Cespedes; a team source notes that insurance “doesn’t come for free,” and Rosenthal notes that the decision may have improved their bargaining position with their star free agent. But perhaps a greater recognition of the flood of sluggers would have led the team to choose an alternate path to protecting itself in the event of a departure of Cespedes.
  • As they continue to look to bolster their lineup, the Athletics are showing interest in free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe, per Rosenthal. He’d presumably be a value-focused addition to the overall mix at third and first base. Of course, Oakland is also said to be looking at Mark Trumbo, so it seems the organization is still casting a fairly wide net.
  • While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides a lengthy list of the winners and losers in the open-market action to date, though that can still change with a lot of free agents left and perhaps some trades still to be swung. As for some of those still-unsigned open-market players, Heyman provides a few notes. Jose Bautista’s representatives “circled back” to the Orioles to gauge interest, but it still seems that Baltimore isn’t interested. And the Blue Jays “do not seem anxious” to strike a deal with the veteran. Meanwhile, the O’s remain involved on Trumbo.
  • Heyman further notes that there remains robust demand for left-handed relievers. He lists the Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as teams still looking at southpaws. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Travis Wood, and J.P. Howell are among the established left-handed options that remain available.
  • It’s unlikely that the Rangers will bring back veteran righty Colby Lewis, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though “the door’s open,” per GM Jon Daniels, he adds that he doesn’t “foresee anything happening at this point” with Lewis. Texas would be interested only in a minor-league arrangement, it seems, due in part to questions over Lewis’s health outlook.

Orioles, Jesus Montero Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles have agreed to a minor league contract with first baseman Jesus Montero, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter). Montero, formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball, will open the season in the midst of a 50-game suspension, which he received in September (as a member of the Blue Jays organization) after testing positive for a banned stimulant (dimethylbutylamine).

Now 27 years old, Montero rated as the No. 3 prospect in the game according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus prior to the 2011 season. However, his defense behind the plate was long somewhat of a question mark, and he’s moved to first base since that time in part due to his large frame (6’3″, 235 pounds). Montero’s bat was always supposed to be his ticket to regular work in the Majors, but he underwhelmed in parts of four seasons with Seattle after being traded from the Yankees to the Mariners in the 2011 Michael Pineda deal. In those four years with the M’s, Montero batted a lackluster .247/.285/.383 in the Majors. He’s continued to hit well at the Triple-A level (.305/.357/.491 career), but at this point his best chance at making the Orioles’ roster upon completion of his suspension is as a right-handed-hitting bench bat that can spend some time at DH and occasionally spell Chris Davis at first base.

3 Remaining Needs: American League East

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To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

Jeff Todd kicked off the series with a look at the NL West, and now we’ll move across the continent and across leagues to the AL East, starting with the division champion Red Sox and moving in order of last year’s standings.  Here are three needs (of varying importance) for each team in the division:

Boston Red Sox

  1. Third Base: Boston is hoping that a healthy and in-shape Pablo Sandoval can get back to his old Giants form, though that’s no small risk given Sandoval’s disastrous 2015-16 seasons.  With Travis Shaw off to Milwaukee, the Sox are left with Brock Holt and Josh Rutledge as the primary third base backup options on the MLB roster.  The Red Sox didn’t hesitate to bench Sandoval after he struggled in Spring Training last year, so if he has another rough spring, the Sox could start looking for a reliable everyday option at the hot corner.
  2. Bench Depth: While the Red Sox have several backup options on the 25-man roster or high minors, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford recently pointed out that the team is rather lacking in proven depth pieces, and might not be able to handle an injury to one or two regulars.  Adding the likes of an Adam Rosales or Trevor Plouffe (names cited as Bradford as players of interest for the Sox) would help in this regard.
  3. Left-Handed Reliever: The club’s decision to tender a contract to Fernando Abad was something of a surprise, given how poorly Abad fared after joining the Red Sox last summer.  Robbie Ross is the primary lefty in Boston’s bullpen and while it appears the Sox feel Abad will get back on track, it wouldn’t hurt to find another southpaw.  Admittedly, this is a pretty borderline “need” on what is a pretty stacked Boston roster — the Sox could potentially find another lefty reliever internally in the form of Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens or perhaps even one of Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz (if Steven Wright reclaims a rotation spot).

Toronto Blue Jays

  1. Corner Outfield: With Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders both in free agency, the Jays are left with Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera, new acquisition Steve Pearce and Dalton Pompey as the candidates for both left and right field.  You could argue that this counts as two needs, though the Blue Jays can juggle their internal options at one corner spot and focus on acquiring an everyday outfielder to handle the other position.
  2. Left-Handed Reliever: Southpaw bullpen depth has been a long-standing need for the Jays, who were short on lefties even before Brett Cecil signed with the Cardinals.  The team has been linked to several left-handed relievers in free agency, though given the big contracts scored by Cecil and other lefties this winter, landing one of those notable arms won’t be cheap.  Toronto has added left-handers T.J. House, Brett Oberholtzer and Jeff Beliveau to minor league deals this winter, though a more proven southpaw reliever would certainly be preferred.
  3. Right-Handed Reliever: No reason to stop at just southpaws, as the Jays’ relief corps is pretty thin behind Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini, and it could get thinner if the Jays explore stretching Biagini out as rotation depth.  The Jays are looking to duplicate their success with Biagini in another Rule 5 draft pick (Glenn Sparkman) and have a few new faces added in the minors to join their in-house bullpen options.  As with the lefties, however, adding an experienced, reliable arm would go a long way to solidifying the bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles

  1. Right Field: With a Hyun Soo Kim/Joey Rickard platoon planned for left field, the Orioles have considered several free agents and trade targets for the right field slot.  This doesn’t necessarily have to be an everyday option, as the O’s could form another platoon out of a new addition and one of Christian Walker, Aneury Tavarez, Adam Walker or Dariel Alvarez.  With rookie Trey Mancini in line for a significant amount of DH at-bats, however, the Orioles may hesitate at allotting quite so much playing time to inexperienced youngsters.
  2. Designated Hitter: While the O’s are high on Mancini, it makes sense to add a veteran who can at least serve as a platoon partner should Mancini not be ready for prime time.  Baltimore has been linked to free agents like Chris Carter or Pedro Alvarez for DH duties, though ideally, Mancini’s DH partner would also be able to handle playing a corner outfield role, so two needs could be addressed at once.
  3. Left-Handed Hitter: If the Orioles do add another bat, some left-handed pop would be preferable to add balance.  Kim and Chris Davis are the only left-handed hitters projected to get regular playing time in the current Baltimore lineup.

New York Yankees

  1. Starting Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia aren’t the most rock-solid top three in the world, though they’re locked in atop the Yankees rotation.  That leaves Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and perhaps Adam Warren battling for those last two spots.  There isn’t a lot of experience in that group, and GM Brian Cashman has downplayed the idea of acquiring another starter (though the Yankees have also been linked to Jose Quintana in some trade rumors).  As much as the Yankees want to see what they have in their young arms, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a low-cost, innings-eating veteran to compete for a rotation job in Spring Training.
  2. Left-Handed Reliever: Aroldis Chapman will close and Tommy Layne is a classic LOOGY, so since Joe Girardi likes to have as many bullpen options as possible, that leaves room for another southpaw.  Chasen Shreve, Richard Bleier and Dietrich Enns are options on the 40-man roster, though since the Yankees have been connected to veterans like Boone Logan or Jerry Blevins on the rumor mill, they could be looking for more experience.
  3. First Base: As in the rotation, the Yankees are committed to young players at first, with Greg Bird penciled in as the starter and Tyler Austin getting some action against lefties (veteran Matt Holliday could also fill in, in a pinch).  While Bird is reportedly recovering well from February 2016 surgery to repair a torn labrum, you have to consider a position a bit of a question mark when the first choice is a player returning from missing an entire season.  It’s very unlikely the Yankees will make a move to address first base before Opening Day, though it could be an area to watch as the season develops if Bird, Austin or Holliday have injury or performance-related setbacks.

Tampa Bay Rays

  1. Starting Rotation: While the Rays already have plenty of starters, what they really “need” is to decide if they’re going to be dealing one of them.  Rumors have been flying all winter about teams looking to acquire one of Tampa’s starters, with Drew Smyly or Alex Cobb perhaps more likely to be on the move due to the Rays’ reportedly enormous asking price for Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi.  What the Rays get in return for one of their arms (if any are dealt) will go a long way towards filling one or both of the remaining needs on this list.
  2. Right-Handed Hitter: Left fielder Corey Dickerson and first baseman Brad Miller are both left-handed bats who struggle against southpaws, so the Rays would be aided by adding a player who can handle one (or both) positions and add some thump from the right side of the plate.
  3. Designated Hitter: This would also be a natural spot for a right-handed bat, as switch-hitter Nick Franklin was only effective against righty pitching last season in part-time action.  A regular DH isn’t necessary since the Rays would like to keep this position open for lineup flexibility — Wilson Ramos will likely require some DH time in the wake of knee surgery, while neither Dickerson or Miller have much defensive value — but the promise of DH at-bats could help the Rays entice a veteran hitter who might be otherwise unenthusiastic about playing on Tropicana Field’s artificial surface.

Orioles Notes: Alvarez, Brach, Schoop, Hundley

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Orioles executive VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette has a long history of making significant roster moves late in the offseason, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. It certainly seems that the stage is set yet again for the O’s to round out their 2017 mix in the new year, as the team is still looking to fill a need in right field and perhaps add one more power bat to the lineup. Here’s the latest out of Baltimore:

  • There’s nothing new to report on Mark Trumbo, who remains a seeming match to return to the O’s, but Kubatko notes that the club has remain engaged with lefty slugger Pedro Alvarez. Price will be a factor, of course, and it seems the organization may prefer to pursue some other opportunities before committing. But Alvarez would represent a solid platoon option at the DH slot and could conceivably even give the outfield a try, Kubatko suggests.
  • Baltimore also remains willing to deal set-up man Brad Brach, Kubatko notes. The 30-year-old entrenched himself as a key part of the O’s pen last year, throwing at least 79 innings for the second consecutive season and locking down a 2.05 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Even after that impressive showing, MLBTR gives Brach a $2.9MM arb projection in his second season of eligibility, making him an affordable asset. Just what the Orioles are willing to consider with regard to a trade remains unclear; presumably, he’ll only be moved for a significant return.
  • While the O’s have more prominent extension candidates, the team would be wise to explore a deal with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, Rich Dubroff opines for PressBoxOnline.com. With three years of control remaining, now may be the optimal time to find value, he suggests. Even if Schoop isn’t a superstar, he’s a significant power threat and only just turned 25. It’s worth noting, though, that Schoop is already projected to earn $3.4MM through arbitration, and also is set to protect his downside through an agreement with Fantex. Those earning opportunities could certainly impact his willingness to take a discount.
  • The Orioles took a hard look at Nick Hundley before deciding instead to go with Welington Castillo behind the plate, Hundley tells MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter links). Hundley, who says he still views himself as a regular catching option, says that his camp “talked to the Orioles a lot” before Castillo became available.
  • In other recent news out of Baltimore, the club has been mentioned as a possible suitor for Mike Napoli and Kubatko recently broke down the possibilities in right field.

Quick Hits: Rizzo, Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles

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Mike Piellucci of VICE Sports spoke to Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and former Padres GM Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP with the Dodgers) about the 2011 trade that sent Anthony Rizzo and minor league pitcher Zach Cates from San Diego in exchange for right-hander Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Hoyer explains to Piellucci that his immediate thought upon hearing that the Padres had acquired Yonder Alonso (then one of the game’s top overall prospects) from the Reds was that Rizzo could be available. Hoyer expected significant competition, but Byrnes tells Piellucci that there wasn’t an aggressive market for Rizzo following his 2011 debut, during which he batted just .141/.281/.242. Per Byrnes, the Padres felt that Rizzo’s best assets could be dampened by the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Cashner was an appealing young arm himself at the time and pitched quite well in 2013-14 for San Diego (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings), but his injuries and inconsistencies went on to make the swap one of the most lopsided-looking trades in recent history, even if one can see the reasoning behind it. As Piellucci notes, the potential for one team to come away looking especially bad is why prospect-for-prospect “challenge” trades of this nature happen so rarely. I’d highly recommend reading the column in its entirety, even for non-Cubs and non-Padres fans.

A few more notes from around the league…

  • The Red Sox lack sufficient depth to safeguard them from injuries to their position players, opines WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. While jack of all trades Brock Holt can serve as a safety net at a number of positions, he’s not exactly an offensive force. Beyond him, the top outfield alternative following an injury would be Bryce Brentz, who hasn’t excelled at Triple-A or in the Majors. Sam Travis represents an option for some power at first base/DH if needed, but he’s coming off a torn ACL. Elsewhere in the infield, Marco Hernandez and Deven Marrero both represent largely unproven options. Beyond those names, Boston’s top alternatives might be Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, neither of whom has had any recent success, even in the minor leagues. Bradford notes that the Red Sox are still monitoring the free-agent market and adds Adam Rosales’ name to the previously reported Trevor Plouffe as depth options. Certainly, Boston has options in Brentz, Hernandez, Marrero, etc., but I’d agree with Bradford’s general assessment that some additional depth to beef up the bench would be in the club’s best interest.
  • Though Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill recently suggested that adding a right-handed platoon option for Justin Bour at first base isn’t a priority, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the team is still likely to add such a player. Miami isn’t closed off to the idea of re-signing Chris Johnson despite the veteran’s struggles in 2016, he notes. They’ve also checked in on some bigger fish (terrible pun intended — my apologies) like Mike Napoli, but that type of move isn’t considered likely, and Miami is not pursuing Napoli at this time. (Napoli is instead reportedly working on a two-year deal with the Rangers.) Bour will get some more looks against lefties this year, but he hasn’t hit them at all in his brief MLB chances (110 plate appearances, .221/.273/.291 slash, zero homers). Jackson notes that J.T. Realmuto will see some time at first base in 2017 on days when A.J. Ellis starts behind the plate (presumably against lefties). From my vantage point, both Adam Rosales and Trevor Plouffe make quite a bit of sense for the Marlins in that capacity.
  • The Orioles are maintaining interest in free agent outfielders Michael Saunders, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan and Michael Bourn, writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Among internal candidates, Dariel Alvarez is a candidate to get one last chance to convince the O’s he can be a productive Major Leaguer, but he’s also a candidate to come off the 40-man roster should the Orioles sign someone from outside the organization, Kubatko adds. Alvarez hit .288/.324/.384 with four homers in 560 plate appearances as a 27-year-old at Triple-A this past season but has had a strong showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. Signed out of Cuba back in 2013, Alvarez has an underwhelming .725 OPS in parts of three Triple-A seasons, though Kubatko notes that the Orioles continue to be intrigued by his “plus-plus arm.”

Rangers, Mike Napoli Discussing Two-Year Deal; Other Teams Still In The Mix

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8:20pm: Napoli and the Rangers are discussing a two-year deal, reports Sullivan, and both sides are “highly motivated” to finalize a contract. However, an agreement is not yet imminent, according to Sullivan, who reports that Napoli is still receiving interest from other clubs. Sullivan lists the Athletics (as Grant speculated upon below) and, a bit more curiously, the Orioles as teams with potential interest.

Oakland could certainly use an offensive upgrade over Yonder Alonso at first base and did finish as a sort of runner up to the Indians in the Encarnacion sweepstakes. Baltimore, meanwhile, has an opening at designated hitter, and Napoli could also help to spell Chris Davis at first base from time to time there as well. The O’s have been more focused on outfielders as of late, however, making the link to Napoli a bit of a surprise.

DEC. 28, 5:45pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that with the holidays in the rear-view mirror, the Rangers have become more aggressive in their pursuit of Napoli. That meshes with a recent tweet from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, who reported that the market for Napoli has “intensified,” though Morosi also adds that the Rangers are one of multiple teams in the mix.

Earlier today, FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported that Napoli aiming for a two-year deal. Per Heyman’s report, there’s a yet-unreported suitor in the mix for Napoli’s services. Grant speculates that Oakland could consider Napoli after missing out on Encarnacion, knowing he could be flipped in a trade later this year if he performs well.

DEC. 23: There’s a “strong possibility” that in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year agreement with the Indians, free-agent slugger Mike Napoli will land with the Rangers, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (on Twitter). While there’s no deal done between the two sides, Sullivan adds that there are indications that talks between the two sides are “hot.” Earlier today, Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweeted that the Rangers had become the front-runners for Napoli now that Cleveland is out of the mix.

Napoli, 35, would give the Rangers a needed option at first base and/or designated hitter. Texas lost Prince Fielder due to persistent neck issues that forced him to abruptly retire earlier in 2016, and longtime Ranger Mitch Moreland has already inked a one-year deal with the Red Sox this winter. Napoli, as previously noted, is a known commodity for Rangers GM Jon Daniels and manager Jeff Banister, as he enjoyed a highly productive 35-game run with the Rangers in 2015 after being acquired from the Red Sox in an August swap and spent the 2011-12 seasons in a Rangers uniform as well.

Napoli hit .295/.396/.513 with the 2015 Rangers and went on to bat a solid .239/.335/.465 with a career-high 34 homers for the Indians this past year. That gives the slugger a .246/.342/.471 batting line and 39 home runs in 736 regular-season plate appearances dating back to when he was acquired by the Rangers in 2015. However, it’s also worth noting that Napoli was dreadful down the stretch for Cleveland in 2016, hitting just .157/.292/.279 over his final 40 games of the season. He also failed to turn things around in the postseason, hitting .173/.232/.288 as Cleveland made a deep run to Game 7 of the World Series against the Cubs.

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