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East Notes: Phillies, Braves, Orioles

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The Phillies could be major players in the outfield free agent market, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. That means they could pursue Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson. (Of those, Cruz might make the most sense, since the Phillies have expressed interest in right-handed hitting to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup.) They're also interested in the Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton, but it does not appear the Marlins will trade him. Other than Domonic Brown, Philadelphia got little out of their outfield positions last year. Heyman notes that the Phillies also would like relief help. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

Orioles Outright Chris Dickerson, Dan Johnson

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Here are today's minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…

  • The Orioles announced that they have outrighted outfielder Chris Dickerson and first baseman Dan Johnson to Triple-A Norfolk. The 31-year-old Dickerson hit .238/.266/.400 in 109 plate appearances for the O's, surviving a DFA and being outrighted to Norfolk only to resurface with the club later in the season. Johnson, 34, was hitless in five at-bats for the O's and is a career .236/.337/.411 hitter in parts of eight big league seasons. He is most famous for the dramtic two-out, two-strike, game-tying home run that he hit in the bottom of the ninth inning in the final game of the Rays' 2011 season. Tampa would go on to win the game, sending them to the postseason.

East Links: Wallace, Mets, Blue Jays

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The Orioles announced yesterday that they have hired Dave Wallace as their new pitching coach. Wallace, 66, has 10 years of experience as a Major League pitching coach and filled that role for the 2004 World Series Champion Red Sox. He has served as pitching coach for the Dodgers (1995-97), Mets (1999-2000), Red Sox (2003-06) and Astros (2007) prior to Baltimore's hiring. Here's more out of baseball's Eastern divisions…

  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun thinks the Wallace hiring to be somewhat of a surprise, if only for the reason that many felt he ultimately wouldn't take the job. Wallace was serving as the Braves' minor league pitching coordinator and was known to be content with his job. Of leaving his post with the Braves, Wallace told Connolly: "As a teacher, it’s kind of tough sometimes to walk away from those students. But you are also proud because you’ve had somewhat of an influence on what they’ve been able to accomplish in the last few years."
  • It remains likely that the Mets will trade either Ike Davis or Lucas Duda this offseason, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, but team insiders tell him that it's too soon to tell which player will have more value on the market. COO Jeff Wilpon said yesterday that the team has already begun to receive calls from teams with a need for first base help.
  • Martino also points out that Wilpon identified just four players as "solidified" for next year: David Wright, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler. Notably omitted is Daniel Murphy, who could find himself on the trading block with the Mets looking to move Eric Young Jr. to second base on a permanent basis. Martino opines that because of the team's desire for Young to man the keystone, it's actually a good thing that he didn't win a Gold Glove for his work in left field, as it would've made the decision tougher to justify to fans.
  • The Blue Jays announced yesterday that they have extended their player development contract with the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats through the 2016 season. The Fisher Cats have been the Jays' Double-A affiliate since 2004, winning a pair of Eastern League titles in that time.
  • Earlier today, MLBTR's Mark Polishuk peeked into Baltimore's future with the Orioles edition of our Offseason Outlook series.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles will look to add a starting pitcher and another big bat (or two) to help them get back to the postseason, while also juggling a number of interesting arbitration cases.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

After a surprise playoff berth in 2012, the Orioles proved they weren't a fluke by posting another winning season in 2013.  What kept the O's six games out of an AL wild card slot, however, was their starting pitching, as Baltimore ranked near the bottom of the league in ERA (27th), innings pitched (22nd) and strikeouts (24th).

While improvement is clearly needed, the O's are in the difficult position of having a number of possible rotation upgrades within the organization already, except that they're still waiting for several of these young arms to break out.  The club doesn't want to acquire an expensive starter when a much more cost-effective hurler could emerge if just given an opportunity.  Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette recently said that the team wants to improve its pitching without trading top prospects or spending too much in free agency, so Duquette may have to get creative if he wants to make a significant rotation upgrade.

Chris Tillman has posted a 3.48 ERA with a 7.5 K/9 and 2.66 K/BB rate in 48 starts over the last two seasons, and the 2013 All-Star is the incumbent ace of Baltimore's staff.  Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen line up behind him having both delivered solid 2013 campaigns, though Chen spent a couple of months on the disabled list.  Bud Norris also returns having posted a 4.80 ERA in 11 games after he came to Baltimore from Houston in July, though that number was inflated by one particularly rough start against Oakland and a .387 BABIP for Norris as an Oriole.

Scott Feldman, the team's other major midseason starting acquisition, is a free agent and both sides share an interest in continuing their relationship.  MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts Feldman will find a two-year, $17MM contract (with a vesting option on a third year) on the free agent market this winter and that's a price that that Orioles would likely be able to fit into their budget, as long as another team doesn't offer Feldman a guaranteed third year.

Jason Hammel got the start on Opening Day after looking like a breakout star in 2012, but the right-hander struggled to a 4.97 ERA in 139 1/3 IP last year and now is rumored to have pitched his last game in the black and orange.  Hammel has had troubles staying healthy so, unless he re-signs for little more than his $6.75MM 2013 salary, the Orioles will probably let him go elsewhere.

On the "young phenom" front, Kevin Gausman posted a 5.66 ERA but a 9.3 K/9 and 3.77 K/BB over his first 47 2/3 Major League innings in 2013.  He could win himself a rotation spot with a big spring, though the O's might want to give him more Triple-A seasoning before expecting him to produce in a pennant-contending rotation.  Dylan Bundy (a preseason consensus top-three prospect in baseball), underwent Tommy John surgery last June and won't be able to contribute until midseason at best, though since he has only one year of pro experience, it's likely the Orioles will take it easy on his arm and not bring him back to the Majors right away.

Zach Britton, Steve Johnson and T.J. McFarland will be given chances to impress as starting pitchers for 2014, while Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter could again be stretched out but the O's are more likely to leave them in the bullpen where they were successful last season.  Britton and Matusz are both out of options and could be trade bait — Britton could be on his last chance in the organization, while the Orioles expected more from Matusz (picked fourth overall in the 2008 draft) by this point in his career.  While Duquette did say he wasn't planning to move any top prospects, the O's already moved one ex-top prospect earlier this year when they dealt Jake Arrieta to the Cubs as part of the Feldman trade.  It wouldn't be a shock to see Britton or Matusz go elsewhere as part of a swap for more proven talent if Baltimore is willing to move on from these young arms. 

While a Tillman/Gonzalez/Chen/Norris rotation is okay and there are a lot of interesting depth arms in the system, it's also basically a stand-pat pitching situation that might not be enough to keep pace in the AL East even if Feldman is re-signed.  One other free agent possibility, however, could be Ricky Nolasco, as the O's explored a deal for the righty last summer.  Nolasco was projected to earn a three-year/$36MM contract according to MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, though that prediction was made before Nolasco fell apart in late September and made just one postseason start for L.A.  If his price tag drops enough, Nolasco could again be on the Orioles' radar.

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Quick Hits: Robertson, Dodgers, Tanaka, Orioles

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The Yankees should sign reliever David Robertson to an extension, River Ave Blues' Mike Axisa argues. By signing Robertson now, Axisa argues, the Yankees will get to pay setup man rates for him. If, in the wake of Mariano Rivera's retirement, Robertson takes the Yankees' closer job in 2014 and performs reasonably well, he'll stand to make much more money after the season, when he becomes a free agent. But signing him now could be tricky, Axisa notes, since it will also be clear to Robertson what he stands to gain by closing for a year and then hitting the free agent market. Axisa proposes a three-year, $21MM deal. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Dodgers' pursuit of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka appears to be "the most obvious move since Brad Pitt sidled up to Angelina Jolie," writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Dilbeck cites the Dodgers' signings of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Yasiel Puig and Alexander Guerrero as evidence that the team will use its considerable financial heft to pursue the biggest-name international free agents. "We've scouted him a lot, we're very much aware of him," says GM Ned Colletti. "We saw him as recently as two days ago."
  • Pitchers Tim Berry and Chris Jones and catchers Caleb Joseph and Michael Ohlman are all candidates to be added to the Orioles' 40-man roster this offseason, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski writes. Jones, who spent most of the 2013 season pitching in relief at Triple-A Norfolk, is eligible for minor-league free agency, but Baltimore would like to keep him.

AL Notes: Wotus, Corrigan, Orioles, Youkilis

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What are the biggest holes to be filled by potential 2014 contenders? Writing for ESPN, Paul Swydan lists catcher for the Tigers, right field for the Orioles, and DH for the Yankees. Having already covered some of this evening's news from the AL Central side, here are more notes from the American League:

  • The Mariners have interviewed Giants bench coach Ron Wotus for the team's manager role, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman notes that Wotus joins a lengthy group of candidates vying to become the new Seattle skipper. 
  • The Angels lost major league special assignment scout Larry Corrigan, who will return to the Twins in some capacity, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports via Twitter. Corrigan has previously been described as one of GM Jerry Dipoto's most trusted scouts.
  • While the Orioles have a lengthy list of free agents, the club is taking its time addressing their situations, reports Dan Connolly of the Balitimore Sun. With well-known names like Scott Feldman, Nate McLouth, Michael Morse, Brian Roberts, and Francisco Rodriguez all coming off the books, the Baltimore front office has to decide who to pursue. "We haven't moved on any of those free agents yet," said executive VP Dan Duquette.
  • Yankees third baseman Kevin Youkilis is healthy and ready to test the free agent market once more, agent Joe Bick tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The 35-year-old was a bust for the Yanks, who got 28 games off subpar production from him at a cost of $12MM. 

AL East Links: Rays, Loney, Rodney, Reimold

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November will bring the eight-year anniversaries of the Rays' hirings of executive vice president Andrew Friedman and manager Joe Maddon, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times. With Jim Leyland's retirement, Friedman and Maddon are now the longest-tenured GM/manager duo in Major League Baseball. Topkin quotes Friedman: "Joe and I have a tremendous working relationship that has only strengthened over time. I think that the continuity throughout our organization provides at least a little of a competitive advantage." Here's more on the Rays and the rest of the AL East…

  • Within that same article, Topkin reports that there aren't likely to be any pre-emptive deals with impending free agents for the Rays. He lists James Loney and Fernando Rodney as two such free agents who would like to explore the free agent market. That goes against what teammate Joel Peralta said about Rodney a few weeks back; Peralta voiced his certainty that Rodney would take a discount to return to the Rays.
  • Nolan Reimold hopes to return to the Orioles in 2014, though he realizes that he's not a lock to be tendered a contract, the 30-year-old tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Reimold missed the majority of the season once again but says he's significantly further along in his rehab from neck surgery than he was in his injury rehab at this time last season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.2MM salary for Reimold if the O's do indeed tender him.
  • Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com wonders how much of an impact Tim Lincecum's two-year, $35MM extension will have on the pitching market, specifically impending Orioles free agent Scott Feldman.

AL Notes: Napoli, Abreu, McClendon, Orioles

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Figures such as John Farrell of the Red Sox and new Reds manager Bryan Price have altered the debate on whether pitching coaches make good managers, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe writes. Cafardo says names such as Greg Maddux and Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves could surface as candidates for openings in the future as pitching becomes a larger part of the game. Let's take a look at the latest from around the American League:

  • Within the same article, Cafardo quotes an anonymous general manager who says he expects a team to offer Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli a three-year contract. Boston would prefer to give Napoli a short-term deal, Cafardo says. However, they'll enter the offseason needing a first baseman after missing out on Jose Dariel Abreu.
  • The Indians were never close to offering Abreu a deal in the same range as the one he got from the White Sox, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer writes in response to a reader question.
  • Jake Peavy took the hill in Game 3 tonight for the Red Sox, but as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald notes, he nearly became a Cardinal earlier this season. St. Louis was involved in talks with the White Sox at the deadline for Peavy, who was eventually shipped to Boston as part of a three-team trade. Peavy tells Lauber he's happy with the way things turned out.
  • Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon says he'll interview for the Mariners' manager job, MLive.com's Chris Iott writes. That confirms an earlier report by Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. McClendon has already interviewed for the Tigers' manager opening. 
  • The Orioles' No. 1 priority this winter will be improving the starting rotation, but Executive Vice President Dan Duquette won't make a big commitment in free agency or trade top prospects to do so, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports.

East Notes: Strasburg, Harper, Drew, Orioles

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The Nationals informed the press today that three critically important players had undergone "successful" surgeries, none of which are expected to present obstacles to a normal Spring Training. Dan Kolko of MASNsports.com, who was first to report the news on Twitter, rounds up the latest here. Staff ace Stephen Strasburg had bone chips removed from his right elbow; outfielder Bryce Harper had work done to the bursa in his left knee; and first baseman Adam LaRoche had his left elbow cleaned up. Each is reportedly on a four to six week timetable, though as Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington notes, bone chip removal in a throwing elbow typically requires a three to four month window for a full recovery. Elsewhere in baseball's eastern divisions …

  • Stephen Drew of the Red Sox has had one of the most anemic offensive post-seasons ever, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post wonders whether it will impact his free agency. Of course, as Sherman also details, Drew has been outstanding defensively during the Sox' run to the World Series. The expectation, he writes, is that Boston will make Drew a qualifying offer and attempt to keep him around, with the shortstop ultimately pulling down three or even four years at around $12MM a pop.
  • Looking at things from the perspectives of the New York clubs, each of whom could have a use for Drew, Sherman says that Drew figures to cost too much for the Mets' liking. For the Yankees, meanwhile, Drew seems more of a second-level possibility whose attractiveness will depend upon who else the Yanks can sign and the status of Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter.
  • With managerial openings beginning to be filled, the Orioles are likely to act soon to decide upon a pitching coach, writes Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The leading candidates, according to Encina, include three men with prior experience as pitching coaches (Rich Dubee, Carl Willis, and Dave Wallace) along with Andy Hawkins, the Rangers' bullpen coach.

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Orioles are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman.  It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012.  Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well.  

This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise.  Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM.  The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM.  We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras.  Can Boras get there?  After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis.  Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras.  Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014.

On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well.  This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan.  Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year.  This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities.  There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well.

That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever — his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs.  Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role.  The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons.  This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014.  "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market.

Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%.  The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements.  Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate.  The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage.  Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015.  It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish.

Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise.  He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot.  Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds.  He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable.

The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training.  He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances.  I think he'll stick around. 

Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates.  Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues.  Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason.  He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September.  Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team.

If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players. 

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