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Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals

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Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …

  • The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
  • In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.

Athletics To Designate Aaron Brooks, Activate Blake Treinen

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The Athletics are set to designate right-hander Aaron Brooks for assignment, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com was first to indicate (Twitter link). His 25-man roster spot will go to closer Blake Treinen, who’s set to return from a short stay on the injured list.

Brooks has been a regular for the A’s pitching staff this season, having amassed 50 1/3 innings in 15 appearances (six starts). However, the results have been underwhelming. Brooks has only managed a 5.01 ERA/5.67 FIP, in part because he has surrendered home runs on 19.4 percent of fly balls. On the other hand, the 29-year-old has logged decent overall strikeout and walk rates (7.69 K/9, 2.5 BB/9) and racked up almost a K per inning as a reliever.

Brooks is in his second stint with the Athletics, who acquired him from the Brewers last September in a minor trade. He was previously a member of the A’s in 2015 when they landed him and Sean Manaea from the Royals in a deal for Ben Zobrist. Brooks didn’t pitch for the A’s that year, though, and wound up going to the Cubs in a February 2016 trade for Chris Coghlan.

In a combined 111 career innings for the A’s, Royals and Cubs, Brooks has notched a 6.65 ERA/5.39 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9.

Injury Notes: Hendricks, Pence, Haniger, Treinen, A. Wood

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The Cubs lost left-hander Cole Hamels to the injured list Friday, but there’s better news regarding fellow rotation stalwart Kyle Hendricks. The righty, who has been out two weeks because of shoulder inflammation, could return to the Cubs’ rotation as early as the upcoming week. It’s possible Hendricks will skip a rehab start and slot back into the team’s starting staff Tuesday, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. If that happens, the Cubs could get two Hendricks starts before the All-Star break. That would be a boon for NL Central-leading Chicago, whose rotation looks especially shaky at the moment without Hamels and Hendricks. Both starters have enjoyed terrific seasons thus far, with Hendricks having pitched to a 3.36 ERA/3.48 FIP and posted 7.64 K/9 against 1.63 BB/9 in 88 1/3 innings.

More on a few other injured notables…

  • Rangers designated hitter/outfielder Hunter Pence will embark on a two-game minor league rehab stint beginning Monday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. Barring setbacks, Pence will return to the Rangers on Wednesday. Pence has been out since June 17 with a right groin strain, but the stunning start the revived 36-year-old jumped out to before then earned him his fourth career All-Star nod. Thanks in no small part to Pence, who’s raking at a .294/.353/.608 clip (142 wRC+) with 15 home runs over 215 plate appearances, Texas owns a 46-37 record and a 1 1/2-game lead on the AL’s last wild-card spot.
  • Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger won’t return until sometime after the All-Star break, manager Scott Servais announced Saturday (via Greg Johns of MLB.com). The Mariners had been hopeful Haniger would come back a bit before then, but the ruptured testicle he suffered June 6 will ultimately keep him out at least five weeks.
  • Athletics closer Blake Treinen is on track to come off the IL on Wednesday, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com tweets. In the meantime, Treinen’s likely to pitch a rehab game Monday. The A’s placed Treinen on the shelf last Saturday with a right shoulder strain, continuing a disappointing campaign for the 30-year-old. Arguably the majors’ premier reliever in 2018, Treinen has recorded a pedestrian 4.08 ERA/4.11 FIP with 9.17 K/9, 5.35 BB/9 and a 43.2 percent groundball rate in 35 1/3 innings this season.
  • Reds lefty Alex Wood has dealt with multiple setbacks in his recovery from a back injury, an issue that has stopped him from pitching in the majors this year. But he’ll make another attempt to progress toward a rehab assignment, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer relays. Wood plans to throw off flat ground Sunday, and the Reds will determine his next step thereafter. “We’re keeping our fingers crossed, hopeful that it wasn’t too big of a setback for him,” manager David Bell said of the latest setback Wood suffered earlier this week.

A’s Place Blake Treinen On Injured List

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7:25pm: Treinen’s dealing with a mild rotator cuff strain, per Martin Gallegos of MLB.com.

6:29pm: The Athletics have placed closer Blake Treinen on the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The strain’s muscular, not structural, Slusser adds.

While Treinen’s injury may not be severe, it’s the second sizable blow to the playoff-contending A’s pitching staff in as many days. They lost ace Frankie Montas to an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use Friday.

The injury has bothered Treinen for a while, Slusser tweets, which may somewhat explain the 30-year-old’s decline in 2019. Treinen was close to untouchable last year, as evidenced by a nearly nonexistent 0.78 ERA in 80 1/3 innings, but has registered a 4.08 ERA in 35 1/3 frames this season. Treinen’s 4.11 FIP suggests his bloated ERA hasn’t been the product of bad luck. His 9.17 K/9 and 5.35 BB/9 also represent marked drop-offs from his otherworldly production in 2018.

It’s unclear who will take over for Treinen as Oakland’s closer during his absence. Treinen has totaled all 16 of the A’s saves this season, after all. Lou Trivino, Yusmeiro Petit, Ryan Buchter, Liam Hendriks and Joakim Soria rank 1-5 in their bullpen in holds. Soria has amassed 220 saves in the majors, which makes him a logical pick to serve as the A’s game-ending solution on paper, but the 35-year-old has had difficulty preventing runs this season.

Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off

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Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.

In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).

Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.

No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.

Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.

It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.

Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).

Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.

What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.

While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Treinen, Rangers, Guzman, Allen

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It was on this day in 1975 that the Oakland A’s released Herb Washington, ending Washington’s unique Major League career after 105 regular season appearances and five postseason games.  Signed by the A’s prior to the 1974 season, Washington served exclusively as a pinch-runner — he never made a single appearance at the plate, in the field, or on the mound.  A distinguished track star at Michigan State, Washington tied and set world records in the 50-yard and 60-yard dashes, respectively.  Athletics owner Charlie Finley, never one to shy away from an unusual idea, signed Washington as the sport’s first “designated runner,” putting Washington on Oakland’s 25-man roster despite his lack of anything beyond high school baseball experience.  Washington ended up scoring 33 runs and stealing 31 bases (out of 48 attempts) during his regular season career, though he was caught stealing twice in the ALCS and picked off first base in Game Two of the 1974 World Series.  The A’s still won the Series, giving Washington a championship ring to show for his brief stint in professional baseball.

Here’s the latest from around the majors, including an item on the modern-day A’s…

  • Blake Treinen “came in feeling quite a bit better” on Sunday after suffering from elbow discomfort the day prior, Athletics manager Bob Melvin told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and other media.  Treinen said Saturday that he believed was suffering from elbow tendinitis, though he and the team will have more information when the closer is examined by doctors on Monday.  In the wake of his outstanding 2018 campaign, Treinen has a 3.00 ERA and 10.8 K/9 through 15 innings for Oakland this season, though with a troubling 6.6 BB/9.
  • Ronald Guzman (hamstring) is set to return from an IL stint on Thursday, leaving the Rangers with a 25-man roster question, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes.  Veterans Danny Santana and Logan Forsythe have been two of the team’s better hitters, and designating either for assignment would create the risk of a claim from another team, plus Santana and Forsythe both have the right to reject an assignment to Triple-A.  Perhaps the likelier option is that Texas demotes a reliever, as the Rangers are already working with an eight-man bullpen, or Delino DeShields is sent to Triple-A and Santana takes over in center field.  One option that isn’t on the table is a Triple-A stint for the struggling Rougned Odor, as manager Chris Woodward expressed confidence that the second baseman would get on track.  Even after a two-hit performance today against the Blue Jays, Odor is hitting only .141/.221/.244 through 86 PA this season.
  • The Angels are planning to activate Cody Allen from the IL on Tuesday, manager Brad Ausmus told Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group and other media.  Allen was sidelined on April 26 with a lumbar spine strain, though he’ll return after missing just over the minimum 10 days.  Thus far, Allen hasn’t found any success in an Angels uniform, with a 6.00 ERA, 10 walks, and 11 strikeouts over nine innings this season.  After excelling as Cleveland’s closer from 2014-17, Allen had a rough 2018 and had to settle for a one-year deal (worth $8.5MM guaranteed) in free agency.

Quick Hits: Paddack, Treinen, Archer, Tulo, L. Gurriel

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Padres rookie righty Chris Paddack has been brilliant across his first six starts and 33 innings in the majors. But Paddack’s already just 57 frames away from the career-high 90 he totaled in the minors last season in his return from 2017 Tommy John surgery. Considering Paddack’s long-term importance to the organization, San Diego has plans to limit his workload, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Indeed, agent Scott Boras told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the Padres will “manage” his 23-year-old client’s innings. However, Cassavell notes that doesn’t mean the Padres will shut down Paddack – something the Nationals did with Boras client Stephen Strasburg amid a pennant race in his younger days. “It’s mapped out,” manager Andy Green said of the Padres’ plans for Paddack, though he added that “it’s mapped out with the intention for adjustments, as well. So to sit here and walk through exactly what we think is going to happen would be foolish.” Meanwhile, Paddack indicated he’s on board with the Padres’ approach and revealed he’s aiming for a 130- to 150-inning season.

More from around the game…

  • Athletics closer Blake Treinen is dealing with right elbow discomfort that he believes is tendinitis, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Treinen’s unlikely to pitch Sunday as a result, per Slusser, who writes that “he’ll get checked out” on Monday. Treinen hasn’t toed the rubber since April 28, when he took a loss in Toronto after the Blue Jays lit him up for four earned runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. The 30-year-old’s 2019 ERA skyrocketed from 0.68 to 3.00 during that uncharacteristically disastrous performance. Treinen told Slusser he’s simply fighting “fluke soreness,” but if the issue forces him to the injured list, Slusser points out it would be his first IL stint in the majors.
  • Pirates righty Chris Archer is eligible to come off the IL on Monday, but that won’t happen, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic. Archer – out since April 27 with right thumb inflammation – is in line for a bullpen session Tuesday, and he’ll need to throw at least one sim game before the Pirates decide whether he’s ready to return. Archer’s absence is all the more troublesome for Pittsburgh now that fellow righty Jameson Taillon could miss upward of a month with a flexor strain in his elbow.
  • Already out since April 3 because of a left calf strain, Yankees shortstop Troy Tulowitzki has suffered a setback and will be shut down for another week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets. It’s the latest bad break for the once-great Tulowitzki, whom injuries have haunted throughout his career. The 34-year-old wasn’t healthy enough to participate in either of the previous two seasons, which led the Blue Jays to cut him over the winter and eat the remaining $38MM on his contract. Tulowitzki then found a taker in the Yankees on a league-minimum deal, with both parties hoping he’d stay healthy and adeptly fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius. The dice roll hasn’t paid off for the Yankees, who have received a meager 13 plate appearances from Tulowitzki and appear unlikely to get him back anytime soon.
  • Although Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has exclusively been an infielder since debuting with the Blue Jays last year, that’s about to change. Speaking with Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday, general manager Ross Atkins said the Jays plan to turn Gurriel into at least a part-time outfielder. The 25-year-old, whom Toronto demoted to Triple-A Buffalo three weeks ago, has been racking up corner outfield reps in the minors. As Chisholm writes, the outfield isn’t totally new for Gurriel, who played left in his native Cuba for 40 games back in 2015-16. The change figures to open up major league playing time for Gurriel upon his return, given that Randal Grichuk’s the sole Toronto outfielder who has been remotely productive this season. The group entered Saturday as the American League’s least valuable outfield.

Blake Treinen Wins Arbitration Case

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Closer Blake Treinen won his arbitration case against the Oakland A’s, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Treinen, represented by Sosnick, Cobbe, and Karon, is now slated to make $6.4MM for the 2019 season, with one more season of arbitration eligibility remaining in 2020. The A’s had submitted a bid of $5.6MM.

This is a notable victory for players, as Treinen sets a new record for year-over-year increase in salary for a second-time arb-eligible reliever, a raise of 4.25MM on his 2018 salary. The largest previous increase had been the $3.575MM raise Greg Holland received in his heyday with the Royals. Of course, the Athletics were winners here too, beneficiaries of a significant jump in production from Treinen this season, as their closer recorded 11.2 K/9 en route to his first All-Star appearance, a 6th place finish in Cy Young voting, and a 15th place finish in MVP voting.

Treinen, 30, came to Oakland after a disappointing start to the 2017 season left him sporting a 5.73 ERA in July, struggling to get swings and misses with only 7.6 K/9. The Nationals were counting on him to be a key cog in their late-inning bullpen rotation that year, expecting a big year after he established himself with 73 appearances and a 2.28 ERA the year before. Given the opportunity to reset their bullpen in one fell swoop, the Nats sent Treinen and two minor leaguers (more on them later) to Oakland for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. The deal panned out for Washington, as the duo stabilized the pen en route to an NL East title. Doolittle ably stepped into the closer’s role, affirming himself as both a production and personality fixture in Washington.

The A’s didn’t do so bad on their side of the deal either, as Treinen put together a massively successful 2018 campaign as the A’s closer: 38 saves, 9 wins, and 0.78 ERA. The minor leaguers in the deal look like good gets as well. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo has a real chance at acedom, coming into 2019 as Baseball America’s 7th ranked prospect overall (subscription link). Sheldon Neuse, the other prospect in the deal, lands as the A’s 9th ranked prospect, per BA, as he looks to build upon his first full season in Triple A, where he hit .263/.304/.357 as a 23-year-old.

Notably, in the other arbitration case settled thus far, the Washington Nationals defeated spare outfielder Michael A. Taylor, who will make $3.25MM in 2019 after submitting a bid of $3.5MM.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).

Trade Rumors: Abreu, Brewers, BoSox, Twins, Royals, Dodgers, Brach, Treinen

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As an established veteran on a cellar-dwelling team, White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has come up often as a speculative trade candidate, but the club’s “strongly inclined” to retain him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The 31-year-old hasn’t exactly boosted his trade value this season, having hit a career-worst .250/.312/.435 (101 wRC+, compared to 139 from 2014-17) and accounted for a replacement-level WAR across 407 plate appearances. Regardless of whether the White Sox keep Abreu, he’s slated to go through arbitration once more over the winter. In the meantime, he’s on a $13MM salary this season.

More trade-related items as the countdown to the July 31 deadline continues…

  • The Brewers’ interest in Royals second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield has been known for a while, and Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required) explores the possibility of Milwaukee acquiring him. The Brewers haven’t pursued Merrifield as aggressively as they did during the winter, according to Murray, who hears he’d be rather expensive to pry out of Kansas City. Landing Merrifield would require “three higher-end prospects, at least,” an executive told Murray. Milwaukee happens to have a quality farm system, though it’s unlikely to trade its best prospect – second baseman Keston Hiura – suggests Murray, who goes on to run down farmhands the team could deal for Merrifield. The 29-year-old Merrifield has upped his stock during a terrific season in which he has hit .305/.375/.429 with five home runs and 17 steals through 412 PAs. Adding to his appeal, Merrifield’s on a near-minimum salary this season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign.
  • The Red Sox sent a high-level executive, senior vice president of baseball operations Frank Wren, to scout the Royals–Twins game on Friday, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. It’s unclear which players Wren focused on, though it’s worth pointing out that Boston has shown reported interest in both Merrifield and Royals teammate Mike Moustakas. And with the Twins likely to sell at the deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN doesn’t rule out the Red Sox pursuing second baseman Brian Dozier.
  • Along with Baltimore’s closer, Zach Britton, the reliever-needy Dodgers are interested in Orioles setup man Brad Brach, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. The Dodgers have also scouted the Marlins and Rays and “monitored” Athletics closer Blake Treinen, Shaikin adds, though it seems improbable he’ll go anywhere with the A’s making a major push for a playoff spot. Conversely, as a pending free agent on a rebuilding team, the 32-year-old Brach is a good bet to end up in another uniform in the coming weeks. The problem for Baltimore is that Brach is in the midst of his least effective season in a while, with a 4.34 ERA/3.61 FIP and a 4.34 BB/9 in 37 1/3 innings. On the positive side, Brach has struck out upward of nine hitters per nine and generated swinging strikes at a solid clip (13.2 percent).

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