Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer. Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
Astros
The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel. The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock. The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case. Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.
Dodgers
The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Nationals
The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.
Red Sox
The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.
The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s. The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s. The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin. Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.
Red Sox Announce Extension With Alex Cora
5:12pm: WEEI’s Rob Bradford tweets that Cora is indeed receiving a raise on the deal as well.
4:57pm: The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’re agreed to a new contract with manager Alex Cora on the heels of 2018’s World Series title. Cora’s original contract with the Sox spanned the 2018-20 seasons and included a 2021 option. That 2021 season is now guaranteed, and the Red Sox have tacked on a club option for the 2022 season as well. It’s not yet clear if the new contract comes with a boost in annual salary, though presumably he’ll be getting some form of raise.
“We have consistently been impressed by Alex at every turn,” said Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner in a press release announcing the move. “His knowledge of the game, ability to connect with our players, and his incredible instincts and decisiveness led us to an historic championship season. We know we are in good hands, and could not be more pleased to know he will be with us for the foreseeable future.”
“Alex did a tremendous job for our club all year long and we wanted to reward him for his efforts after an amazing season,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski added. “We are extremely happy that he will be with us and leading our club on the field.”
Under Cora’s watch, the Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games, fending off a 100-win Yankees club and a 90-win Rays team en route to a division championship. That regular-season performance landed Cora second in American League Manager of the Year voting, but the World Series Championship and a new contract extension figure to eliminate any sting from finishing as the runner up in that regard.
“Since day one, John and Linda Henry, Tom Werner, Mike Gordon, Sam Kennedy, and Dave Dombrowski have been incredibly supportive of me and my family, and for that I am extremely grateful,” said Cora in his own statement. “For me, 2018 was not only historic, but it was special as well, both on and off the field. We have a great appreciation for our accomplishments this past year, but now our focus moves forward to the season ahead and defending our World Series title.”
AL Notes: Red Sox, Indians, Merrifield, ChiSox
As the Red Sox gear up to defend their 2018 World Series championship, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on this week’s episode of the Bradfo Sho. Tim and Rob discuss the recent Top 50 free agent list published here at MLBTR, with a specific focus on a number of Red Sox free agents (Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly) and a quick look ahead to the 2019-20 offseason as well. Once you’re finished listening to that, here are a few notes from around the American League…
- Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and briefly touched on the recent suggestions that his club would entertain the possibility of dealing a veteran such as Corey Kluber (Twitter link, with audio). Antonetti downplayed the possibility and emphasized that Cleveland is in a good spot in the sense that the roster is rife with players whom other teams covet — Kluber included. While that basic fact leads to many discussions, Antonetti said on multiple occasions that he feels the Indians are in a “good spot” heading into 2019 and didn’t give any real inkling that there’s pressure to reduce payroll. That said, it’s worth pushing back a bit to note that Cleveland projects to a record $145.5MM payroll next season despite a clear dearth of established outfield options and a questionable bullpen mix, among other needs. Finding a taker for some or all of the remaining $17.5MM on Jason Kipnis‘ contract would go a long way toward alleviating some of those financial constraints, but the club will surely consider other avenues as well.
- Matthew Trueblood of Baseball Prospectus takes an interesting look at Whit Merrifield‘s offensive profile, noting that while the Royals‘ unsung star doesn’t rate especially well in terms of Statcast metrics like average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, some of his shortcomings can arguably be attributed to the pitfalls of averages and extremes. Merrifield ranked well when looking at incidents of a 95+ mph batted ball with a launch angle between 10 and 30 degrees, and when adding plate appearances that resulted in walks to the equation, he ranked more than 200 places higher than he did in bottom-line average exit velocity. It’s a very intriguing read on one of the game’s most underrated players and a player who could likely fetch a fortune on the trade market. Of course, both Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star and Rustin Dodd of The Athletic have each recently penned lengthy examinations on why the Royals aren’t likely to trade Merrifield this winter, even though they look unlikely to contend in a weak AL Central division in the near future.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke at length with James Fegan of The Athletic about the organization’s philosophy on pitch framing. Hahn suggested that the team believes it easier to improve a catcher’s framing than his offensive capabilities, noting that Tyler Flowers went from a bat-first prospect to an elite framer during his time with the organization. Fegan explores how that belief led the team to sign Welington Castillo last offseason, the multiple factors that derailed Castillo’s defensive ratings in ’18 and Omar Narvaez‘s progress at the plate but continued defensive issues.
Red Sox, Juan Centeno Agree To Minor League Contract
The Red Sox are in agreement with catcher Juan Centeno on a minor league contract, tweets MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. The Magnus Sports client figures to receive an invite to Major League Spring Training.
Centeno, 28, appeared in 10 games for the Rangers this past season and joins the Boston organization with 111 games of MLB experience under his belt. He’s a career .227/.278/.331 hitter in 353 trips to the plate between the Mets, Brewers, Twins, Astros and Rangers. Centeno has shown a knack in terms of hitting for average at the Triple-A level, where he’s a .286/.330/.352 hitter in 1147 PAs, and he’s only struck out in 12.3 percent of his plate appearances at that level.
From a defensive standpoint, Centeno has thrown out 39 percent of would-be base thieves throughout his minor league career, but he’s at just 13 percent in that regard in the Majors. Baseball Prospectus gives him poor marks for his pitch-framing and blocking skills.
Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart top Boston’s depth chart at catcher right now, though Swihart was rarely utilized at the position in 2018 while Leon’s anemic offense at least raises the question of whether the Sox will tender him a contract. Nonetheless, the addition of Centeno figures to be merely a means of adding some upper-minors depth for Boston in the early stages of the offseason, as there’s no clear path to the big league roster for him at this point.
Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
After celebrating their fourth World Series in 15 years, the Red Sox now have some significant holes to fill in the starting rotation and bullpen. They’ll also need to think about whether and how to keep their championship core together for the long term.
Guaranteed Contracts
- David Price, SP: $127MM through 2022 (Price chose not to exercise his opt-out clause)
- J.D. Martinez, DH/OF: $86.25MM through 2022 (Martinez can opt out after each of the next three seasons; Red Sox can potentially convert fourth and fifth seasons into mutual options)
- Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $40MM through 2021
- Rick Porcello, SP: $21MM through 2019
- Chris Sale, SP: $15MM through 2019 (club option exercised)
- Christian Vazquez, C: $13.55MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)
- Mitch Moreland, 1B: $6.5MM through 2019
- Eduardo Nunez, IF: $5MM through 2019 (exercised player option)
Obligations To Former Players
- Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $23MM through 2019 (includes $5MM buyout of 2020 club option), minus prorated MLB minimum salary earned by Sandoval next season
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
- Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
- Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
- Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
- Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM
- Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
- Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
- Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
- Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
- Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
- Blake Swihart (2.164) – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Thornburg
Free Agents
- Craig Kimbrel, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly, Steve Pearce, Ian Kinsler, Drew Pomeranz, Brandon Phillips, Carson Smith
[Boston Red Sox offseason page][Boston Red Sox payroll information]
The Red Sox won 108 regular season games and then lost just three postseason contests en route to the Commissioner’s Trophy. The good news doesn’t end there for Boston fans, as the window is still wide open for another title. Potential AL MVP Mookie Betts and Hank Aaron Award-winning slugger J.D. Martinez are the cornerstones of a dynamic lineup that will also have Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. as Opening Day locks. Chris Sale, David Price, and Rick Porcello sit atop the rotation, with bullpen workhorses Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Ryan Brasier, and Hector Velazquez all returning.
That’s an awfully strong nucleus to start from, particularly for a team that can still account for less-stable positions with players already on the roster, and isn’t shy about making big trades or signings if external help is required. The Red Sox soared over the luxury tax threshold last season and are projected to be well over the line again in 2019, though they’ll get some help in that area by the fact that the luxury tax limit will rise from $197MM to $206MM. Hanley Ramirez‘s salary is also now completely off the books; the $22MM he had earned annually will be needed to cover projected arbitration raises.
So, what will president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski do for an encore? His most immediate question is the bullpen, as closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly are both headed for free agency. The hard-throwing Kelly has had his ups and downs in Boston, with a 4.33 ERA over 359 1/3 innings for the team and persistent control issues. When Kelly was on, however, he was hard to touch — over 11 1/3 IP during Boston’s World Series run, the right-hander allowed just one earned run while recording 13 strikeouts and no walks. It’s easy to see how a rival team could take a chance on Kelly as a closer or top setup option, and offer him a contract beyond what the Sox are willing to pay. Then again, there’s still a fit on paper in Boston, so it’s possible he’ll return.
Meanwhile, Boston may only have limited interest in bringing Kimbrel back.After Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen raised the bar on contracts for top closers, it could be that the Red Sox simply aren’t keen on spending the big money it will likely take to retain Kimbrel (MLBTR projects him for a four-year, $70MM contract). The Red Sox also stand to recoup a compensatory draft pick via the qualifying offer if Kimbrel signs elsewhere. Kimbral had another strong regular season — 2.74 ERA, 3.10 K/BB rate, 13.9 K/9 over 62 1/3 innings — yet didn’t quite hit elite levels, and he struggled mightily throughout the postseason.
If Kimbrel does leave, the Sox don’t have an obvious in-house saves candidate ready to step up to the unique pressure of Fenway Park in the ninth inning. Free agents like David Robertson, Zach Britton, or Andrew Miller could all be targets, or Boston could pursue trade options. This is assuming, of course, that the Red Sox will take a traditional approach to the closer role, as the club could prefer to add a versatile multi-inning arm (like a Miller) or two and then give manager Alex Cora a chance to mix and match his late-game options based on matchups.
Beyond the top three in the rotation, the combination of Eduardo Rodriguez, Brian Johnson, swingman Velazquez, and (health permitting) Steven Wright should be capable of accounting for at least one of the other rotation spots. This depth also comes in handy should Sale again run into any health issues, as Boston put a priority on keeping their ace as fit as possible for October. The Red Sox will likely add to this mix with at least one more starting arm. The team has the resources to check in on any of the top pitchers available on the free agent or trade markets, with a pursuit of Nathan Eovaldi standing out as a logical option. Eovaldi will still just be 29 on Opening Day, and looked as good during his two-plus months with the Red Sox as he has at any point in his career, both results-wise and in terms of his 97.2mph average fastball speed.
If not Eovaldi, Boston could look at other pitchers that could be longer-term answers for the rotation since both Sale and Porcello are entering the last year of their contracts. As good as the present looks for the Red Sox, Dombrowski will have to turn an eye to the future this offseason as several important players are approaching free agency. Sale, Porcello, and Bogaerts are all only controlled through 2019; Betts and Bradley will reach the open market after 2020; and Martinez can opt out of his contract after any of the next three seasons.
There have already been indications that Bogaerts and Martinez will test free agency, though the team will likely at least consider broaching extension talks with all of these parties. It will be interesting to see which players the Red Sox prioritize in negotiations, as it will provide significant information about their approach for the future. Bogaerts, Martinez, and Bradley are all represented by Scott Boras, whose clients tend to reach the open market rather than sign extensions. Sale has been nothing short of outstanding during his nine-year career, though with his lingering injury concerns, are the Red Sox prepared to make an expensive commitment to the southpaw as he enters his 30s? Could Boston also look to a different type of extension, and lock up a controllable player like Benintendi (scheduled for free agency after 2022) to a even longer-term deal?
Betts has preferred to take a year-to-year approach rather than sign an extension, a gamble that has thus far handsomely paid off for the superstar outfielder. Could his stance change if the Red Sox were to approach him with one of the biggest contracts in baseball history? The argument can certainly be made that Betts is deserving of such a pact based on what he has done through his age-25 season, and the Sox could get some obvious contact comps this winter in whatever record-breaking deals Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (both of whom are 26 themselves) find in the free agent market this winter.
The Sox are set in the outfield, DH, and shortstop, and we can pretty safely pencil Rafael Devers at third base and Mitch Moreland for a timeshare at first base next season. Despite below-average overall hitting numbers and a shaky glove in 2018, Devers is still only 22, and the former top prospect will certainly be given plenty of opportunity to break out. Moreland will continue to provide his solid defense and bat from the left side of the plate, though the Sox will need to find another right-handed first base as a platoon partner.
World Series MVP Steve Pearce filled that role in spectacular fashion after coming to Boston in midseason, and while his price tag may go up, the free agent market has been unfriendly enough to veteran first basemen in recent years that a re-signing is certainly feasible from Boston’s end. For Pearce, he may also welcome another crack at a ring rather than aim for a few extra dollars in free agency.
Could the Red Sox make a bigger splash at first base? That’s what we thought could be in store last winter before the team re-signed Moreland to a two-year contract, so Boston seems content for now to just stick with a platoon situation rather than deal Moreland and then pursue a bigger name in free agency or on the trade market. There’s also the possibility that the Sox might not want to block the position in the event that Devers needs to be moved to first base, as star prospect Michael Chavis is knocking on the door as a potential third baseman of the future. (Chavis himself has also seen some time at first base, plus young first baseman Sam Travis is still in the picture, albeit in need of a rebound from a lackluster Triple-A season.) All that said, there are some intriguing potential options and a move can’t be ruled out.
Catcher is another position where the team could theoretically stand pat with in-house options, as the duo of Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon each posted outstanding framing numbers and were widely praised for their game-calling abilities. The Sox have enough big bats in the lineup that they could afford to devote one position entirely to defense, yet the near-total lack of offense generated by both Vazquez (42 wRC+) and Leon (33 wRC+) begs to be addressed in some fashion. Blake Swihart also contributed little at the plate while seeing some action at catcher as part of his super-utility duties.
The boldest move would be a trade for J.T. Realmuto, who will be targeted by every team in need of catching upgrades this winter. Vazquez or Swihart could go back to the Marlins as part of a trade package, though obviously Boston would need much more to pry Realmuto out of Miami. If the Red Sox aren’t willing or able to meet the Marlins’ price, they could aim lower by signing a free agent backstop like Kurt Suzuki or Robinson Chirinos or by taking over part of the contract of a pricey veteran such as Russell Martin. This would allow Vazquez to stay in the mix. The Sox have committed to him to some extent as their catcher of the future via their three-year contract extension, and Vazquez did post decent hitting numbers just in 2017. It remains to be seen exactly what the Sox will do with Swihart, who was kept despite a flurry of trade rumors last season, and whose stock has dropped even further after a forgettable 2018 season.
The experiment with Swihart as a utilityman led him to appear as one of the nine Red Sox players who played at least one game at second base last season, as the position became a revolving door thanks to Dustin Pedroia‘s recurring knee problems. The longtime face of the Boston franchise was limited to just three games last season, leading the Sox to rotate several players through the keystone before Ian Kinsler was acquired at the deadline to solidify the position, though Kinsler didn’t play particularly well.
It’s an open question as to how much Pedroia will be able to contribute next season, especially since Dombrowski isn’t yet certain if the veteran infielder will be ready for Spring Training. Given Pedroia’s status within the organization (and the $40MM still owed to him through 2021), the Sox may have to hold off on any moves to address second base until they get more clarity on Pedroia’s health. If Pedroia isn’t an option, another in-season trade is likely, unless incumbent options Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt, or maybe even longer-shot candidates like Chavis or even Swihart can all combine to handle the position.
A reasonably healthy and productive Pedroia, a step forward from Devers, and Vazquez returning to even his 2017 form would go a long way towards firming up three positions that were rather glaringly weak links last season. Even while receiving sub-replacement level production at second base, third base, and catcher all season, the 2018 Red Sox were still one of the best teams in recent baseball history. It’s a tribute to Cora’s work in the dugout and Dombrowski’s roster-building that Boston achieved what it did even with some notable flaws, and with another winter to address these areas and others, the possibility exists that next year’s Red Sox could be even better.
Steven Wright Undergoes Knee Surgery
The Red Sox announced today that right-hander Steven Wright has undergone surgery on his left knee. Specifically, he received an arthroscopy and debridement on the joint.
At this point, a timeline isn’t known. The club says that Wright “will continue to rehab and prepare for a return to pitching in the 2019 season.”
It’s not particularly surprising to hear of the procedure, as Wright has long dealt with issues in that joint. A prior surgery knocked him out for almost all of the 2017 season. After making it back and becoming a productive member of the staff again in 2018, Wright hit the DL late in the season when he began dealing with pain and inflammation.
At the time that his recent issues arose, Wright indicated that the belief was he was suffering from “loose bodies” in the knee. If that’s all that was at issue, perhaps there’s reason to hope that there’ll be plenty of time for Wright to work back to full health before Spring Training.
The Boston organization will certainly hope the prognosis is promising. Wright projects to earn only $1.4MM in arbitration in 2019, with one more season of control still to come thereafter, making him an affordable asset. And he’s fresh off of a season in which he showed well in a multi-inning swingman role. Over four starts and 16 relief appearances, Wright worked to a 2.68 ERA with 42 strikeouts and 26 walks over 53 2/3 frames. Though his K/BB numbers fail to impress, the knuckler was seemingly legitimately tough to square up, as Statcast figures suggest (.288 wOBA, .306 xwOBA, 26.8 hard-hit rate).
Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers
The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept. You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market. If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player. (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)
Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class. The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:
- A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks‘ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
- Bryce Harper declined the Nationals‘ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
- Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
- Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks‘ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link). No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
- Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers‘ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter). Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
- Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros‘ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards. The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
- Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers‘ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today. Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.
Quintin Berry Retires, Joins Brewers Coaching Staff
After thirteen seasons in professional baseball, outfielder Quintin Berry has officially hung up his cleats. Berry announces his retirement via Twitter, but adds that he will be joining the Milwaukee Brewers for the 2019 season as an outfield and baserunning coordinating (Twitter links). The Brewers have not yet announced the hire.
Berry’s most significant playing time came with the 2012 Tigers when he made his ML debut. He played in 94 games as a 27-year-old rookie, hitting .258/.330/.354 and stealing 21 bases in 21 attempts. Since then, Berry has been one of baseball’s few speed specialists, seeing time as an occasional stolen base threat off the bench, a la Terrance Gore.
Berry, who turns 34 years-old on November 21st, was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 5th round of the 2006 draft. He spent time with 12 organizations in total, including major-league appearances for the Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles, Cubs and most-recently the 2017 Brewers, for whom he stole two bases in three attempts after rosters expanded in September. Notably, Berry stole three bases in three attempts for the Red Sox during their World Series run in 2013. After pinch-running for David Ortiz, he stole second base off Yadier Molina in the eighth inning of a Game 4 Boston victory.
Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm
Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.
More from Boston…
- Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
- In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.
Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton
Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.
Here’s the latest market chatter:
- The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
- If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
- Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
- Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
- The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
- Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.