2011 Contract Issues: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox face four contractual options after the season:
- Designated hitter David Ortiz has a $12.5MM club option. This will be declined.
- Third baseman Adrian Beltre has a $5MM player option that increases to $10MM with 640 plate appearances. It'll be tough to reach that plate appearance benchmark, and if the option remains at $5MM it'll be an easier choice for Beltre to decline. He gets a $1MM buyout for reaching 575 PAs.
- Bill Hall has a $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. Doug Melvin signed Hall to this extension in February of '07. Here in 2010, Theo Epstein won't be considering the option.
- Reliever Scott Atchison has a $440K club option with a $10K buyout. He's currently with Pawtucket.
The Sox have four additional free agents: Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Scott Schoeneweis. They earn a total of $23.2MM this year. Around $46MM will come off the books if everyone leaves. There are also a few decreases to consider – $2MM for Tim Wakefield if he fails to reach 130 innings, and $6.25MM for John Lackey assuming his signing bonus was paid up front. 2010 obligations to former players total $10.5MM (Julio Lugo, Billy Wagner, and Alex Gonzalez). If everyone leaves, and we add in the decreases and money to former players, the Red Sox free up around $64.75MM. I assume things look different for luxury tax purposes, but we're keeping it simple.
The Red Sox have five players under contract getting raises: Kevin Youkilis, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Josh Beckett. Those raises total $10.525MM. Boston also has Jacoby Ellsbury going to arbitration for the first time, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, Manny Delcarmen, and Boof Bonser in the second-time group, and Jonathan Papelbon and Jeremy Hermida as third-timers. We'll assume this results in $10MM worth of raises.
By my estimate, the Red Sox would have more than $40MM to work, holding payroll steady. It's more complicated than what I've done here, but they'll be able to address catcher, third base, and designated hitter without a big payroll increase.
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Discussion: Changes Coming In Boston?
Following the Red Sox' three-game sweep at the hands of the last-place Baltimore Orioles, GM Theo Epstein insinuated that the team may need to make roster changes. In a piece by John Tomase of the Boston Herald, Epstein assesses the current state of his club:
"We’re still playing bad baseball. Unintelligent, undisciplined, uninspired baseball. It’s got to change…. It either changes itself or we have to do something to change it."
The Red Sox ranked first in baseball in offseason spending, investing in players like John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro. The on-field product has underperformed so far though, looking up in the standings at the Rays, Yankees, and even the Blue Jays.
As Tomase suggests, it's hard to single out one player or even one aspect of the team as the root of the problem. However, when considering the likelihood of a drastic roster move, it's worth noting that many of the struggling players are in the final year of their contracts. Victor Martinez has had trouble throwing out basestealers and is hitting just .233/.298/.314. Designated hitters David Ortiz (.159/.254/.381) and Mike Lowell (.222/.300/.333) are underachieving and overpaid. Even Beltre, despite a .330 average, has yet to homer and has played mediocre defense by his standards, committing his sixth error of the season tonight.
The Red Sox are, of course, unlikely to become sellers, but they'll need to turn things around soon or risk falling from contention in a competitive division. If the Sox fail to make up ground on the Rays and Yankees in the AL East, what moves could you see the club making in the coming weeks and months?
Odds & Ends: Byrnes, Hu, Giants, Red Sox
Sunday night linkage..
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues (via Twitter) wonders if the recently released Eric Byrnes could be the Yankees' short-term replacement for the injured Curtis Granderson.
- Triple-A shortstop Chin-lung Hu may be promoted if Rafael Furcal lands on the DL, writes Evan Drellich of MLB.com. The Dodgers were reportedly shopping Hu in late March and one has to imagine that they're happy to still have him aboard.
- The Giants' patchwork job on offense may be enough for the club to make a serious run at the NL West title, says Tracy Ringolsby of FOX Sports.
- Two players in Boston's farm system who played together for quite a while will be reunited at the Triple-A level, writes Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal.
Cafardo’s Latest: Blue Jays, Dunn, Washburn, Dukes
In his column today for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo explores the effect of Arizona's controversial immigration law on baseball. He also shares a few notes from around the league:
- The Blue Jays' huge collection of scouts should have them well-prepared to deal at this year's trade deadline. Cafardo names a slew of players who the Jays could try to move if they're out of playoff contention, noting that the club will "likely listen to anything." The list includes Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, John Buck and Jose Molina.
- Molina has thrown out eight of 11 basestealers so far this year, a statistic that could intrigue the Red Sox. However, Cafardo says the Sox "will never deal for a catcher who is all defense, no offense."
- Cafardo suggests that Adam Dunn would be a good fit at DH for the Red Sox in the post-David Ortiz era.
- Jarrod Washburn's time off this spring has given him a few extra weeks to recover from offseason knee surgery, though now teams will have to assess how long it will take Washburn to be major league ready. According to Cafardo, the Dodgers' pitching issues make them look every day like a better fit for Washburn.
- A source tells Cafardo that Elijah Dukes' rumored deal with the Tabasco Olmecas of the Mexican League fell through after Dukes failed to show up for a reporting date. Cafardo indicates that the 25-year-old could end up spending the year away from baseball.
Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Adrian, Strasburg, Mets, Zito
Links for Saturday…
- The time Scott Schoeneweis spent with the Brewers in Spring Training likely gave him a leg up on Alan Embree this season, writes Ian Browne of MLB.com. Embree was DFA'd yesterday by the BoSox in order to make room for Daisuke Matsuzaka.
- Dodgers prospect Andrew Lambo was suspended 50 games for his second violation of baseball's drug policy, tweets Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Prior to the 2009 season, the outfielder ranked 49th on Baseball America's top 100 prospects list.
- Jim Bowden of XM Radio (via Twitter) spoke to Adrian Gonzalez, who says that he's not looking at Ryan Howard's new contract.
- With a good outing for Double-A Harrisburg tomorrow, the Nats will promote Stephen Strasburg to Triple-A Syracuse, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
- The Mets' Triple-A affiliate cut lefty Travis Blackley loose, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The move will make room for the returning Elmer Dessens.
- ESPN's Buster Olney notes that Barry Zito has reinvented himself this season, and is starting to deliver a little of what the Giants were expecting when they signed him for $126MM.
- Mark Bradley of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn't believe the Braves can compete with the lineup as constructed.
- Within this piece, Richard Justice of The Houston Chronicle mentions that prior to trading Brad Lidge to the Phillies, the Indians were willing to part with Cliff Lee to obtain the All-Star closer. That was the offseason prior to Lee's breakout Cy Young season.
- In an article for ESPN Boston, Mike Andrews of SoxProspects.com looks at the Red Sox depth and what the backup plans are should any of the regulars get injured.
Boston Acquires Niuman Romero
The Red Sox have acquired infielder Niuman Romero from the Indians for cash considerations, tweets Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer. The 25-year-old has been in Cleveland's farm system since 2005.
Romero made his major league debut in September of last season, appearing in 10 games for the Tribe. He saw his first promotions to Double-A and Triple-A in 2009, where he was less than stellar offensively. The native of Venezuela hit .240/.306/.292 in his stops in Akron and Columbus.
The acquisition comes days after the BoSox DFA'd Kevin Frandsen, who was claimed by the Angels.
Odds & Ends: Red Sox, Howard, Francisco, Mendoza
Links to check out as we await Cliff Lee's Mariners debut…
- BoSox manager Terry Francona says that the upcoming player move to make room on the roster for Daisuke Matsuzaka will almost certainly involve a pitcher, tweets Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- If you play fantasy baseball, be sure to follow our @closernews feed on Twitter. We've got instant news on all closer situations, enabling you to conquer the save category.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports takes a behind-the-scenes look at the Ryan Howard extension negotiations, speaking to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and Howard's agent, Casey Close.
- In an MLB.com mailbag, T.R. Sullivan suggests that Frank Francisco could be a prime trade candidate in July, particularly if the Rangers are slipping from playoff contention.
- Luis Mendoza cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Omaha, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Mendoza was designated for assignment by the Royals last week.
- GM Jim Hendry says prospect Starlin Castro will join the Cubs at some point this season, but he won't say how soon, according to ESPNChicago. A source told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago earlier in the week that Castro's promotion could be right around the corner.
- ESPN.com's Rob Neyer doesn't think the White Sox have any need for Jermaine Dye. We heard earlier today that Dye believes he'd be a fit for the South Siders.
- Talking to Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse, Brewers outfielder Jody Gerut explained why the Padres should retain Adrian Gonzalez.
- Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez answered questions from Denver Post readers, explaining that "it's a really bad feeling when you get traded" and he'd like to sign a contract "for a few years." Gonzalez is not arbitration-eligible until after the 2011 season, and he's represented by Scott Boras.
- The Yankees are not typically inclined to sign young players to long-term deals. It makes sense to maintain flexibility, as they did going year-to-year with Chien-Ming Wang. On the other hand, Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out that Robinson Cano's extension has worked out quite well. Will the Yankees exercise his $14MM club option for 2012, or choose the $2MM buyout?
- Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald believes that the future of the Red Sox catching position points more toward Adalberto Ibarra than Victor Martinez.
Angels Claim Kevin Frandsen
7:03pm: Dan Barbarisi of The Providence Journal reports that Frandsen has in fact been claimed by the Angels. It's believed that he's been assigned to their Triple-A affiliate.
THURSDAY, 2:49pm: It appears that the Angels claimed Frandsen off waivers, based on this tweet from outfielder Chris Pettit.
WEDNESDAY, 2:48pm: The Red Sox designated infielder Kevin Frandsen for assignment to make room for Alan Embree, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Frandsen had been acquired from the Giants on March 26th for a player to be named later or cash. He played 17 games at Pawtucket, tallying 71 plate appearances.
Frandsen, 28 in May, hit .295/.352/.438 at Triple A last year while playing all four infield positions. Three years ago, Baseball America viewed Frandsen as a "solid No. 2 hitter" and potential starting second baseman. However, he was derailed by a ruptured Achilles tendon in the spring of '08. Back in March, Henry Schulman if the San Francisco Chronicle wrote about Frandsen's frustrations and his new attitude adopted while playing winter ball.
Stark On Fielder, Howard, Sizemore, Frasor
Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings column is hot off the press at ESPN.com. Let's take a look.
- Stark explains that the potentially legendary 2012 first base free agent class may be further depleted, as Albert Pujols is expected to stay in St. Louis and Adrian Gonzalez could be traded and extended by his new team. Even Lance Berkman might stay put, leaving Prince Fielder as the remaining big name. There are some who rank Fielder below Ryan Howard, writes Stark.
- Stark says the Phillies signed Howard now because they felt a Pujols extension would drive up Howard's price. For an explanation straight from the horse's mouth, check out Todd Zolecki's MLB.com chat with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick.
- If the 2012 first base free agent class is loaded, will there be enough teams willing to shell out massive contracts? Stark says yes, naming a dozen teams he figures could be in the mix. Don't forget the Nationals and Orioles, two clubs that made huge bids for Mark Teixeira.
- Jayson Werth's agent Jeff Borris named the Jason Bay and Matt Holliday deals as frames of reference for his client. Stark takes that to mean Werth will be looking in the $16-17MM range. My question: does he get five years?
- One source of Stark's says the Indians have shown zero inclination to trade Grady Sizemore. Sizemore's $10MM club option for 2012 becomes a player option upon a trade, and Stark feels Sizemore would "almost certainly" exercise it – decreasing his trade value. That assumes, of course, that Sizemore doesn't turn things around anytime soon.
- Stark doesn't think the Red Sox have reached a desperation point regarding acquiring a catcher who can throw. Bringing in a Chris Snyder or a Gerald Laird might necessitate releasing David Ortiz or Mike Lowell.
- The Orioles have interest in Blue Jays reliever Jason Frasor.
- In a table, Stark provides an interesting look at teams' guaranteed money rankings for 2011 and '12. The Dodgers, interestingly, are very light on '12 commitments ($3.3MM).
Odds & Ends: Rosario, Red Sox, Bernazard, Storen
Links for Tuesday….
- Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
- The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
- MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
- Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
- Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
- In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
- Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.