AL East Notes: Fowler, Markakis, Estrada, Cessa, Murphy
In a recent interview on MLB Network Radio (Twitter links), Orioles executive Dan Duquette further responded to recent comments by agent Casey Close regarding the Dexter Fowler talks. “It would’ve been a good fit for us. We’re disappointed the deal didn’t come together [but] that’s the way it goes sometimes,” Duquette said. Duquette went on to say that he was puzzled by the statement and he didn’t quite understand why Close was upset. “When you show sincere interest in a player, it helps him get a better deal,” said the Orioles GM.
Here’s more out of Baltimore and the rest of the AL East:
- The Orioles tried to open a conversation with the Braves about bringing back former right fielder Nick Markakis, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com tweets. But Atlanta seemingly showed little interest in trying to work out a swap, per the report.
- The qualifying offer had an impact not only on Fowler, but also on one player who never fully tested the market: Marco Estrada, who struck a two-year deal to remain with the Blue Jays. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca looks at the different experiences of Estrada and fellow Toronto signee J.A. Happ, who says he had interest from a dozen clubs on the first day of free agency. Estrada, meanwhile, says he “didn’t get a chance to really go through that process.” He added that he “probably should have done a better job of” assessing his market during his week-long consideration of the QO, and wishes he “could have gotten more years” in his deal, but ultimately says he’s happy to return to the Jays and was able to enjoy a more relaxing offseason after his early deal.
- Yankees righty Luis Cessa will get a shot to make it as a starter after being involved in several prominent trades, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. GM Brian Cashman said that adding Cessa and Chad Green in exchange for Justin Wilson was about getting quality pitchers who provide the team with options. “We think he has starter capability, just like we think Green has starter capability,” Cashman said. “And then if not, all failed starters go to the pen. We feel we acquired, in Cessa’s case, a strike-thrower with a good arm.”
- Newly-signed Red Sox outfielder David Murphy says that it’s “surreal” to return to the Boston organization, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. Murphy says he knew he “was going to have to be patient” this winter, but nevertheless was surprised with how quiet market turned out to be. But he says he’s ready to “turn the page” on his disappointing winter and is looking forward to trying to crack the roster with the Red Sox — or, failing that, another club.
Red Sox Sign David Murphy To Minor League Deal
7:17pm: The signing has been announced by the Red Sox. Murphy will have an opt-out at the end of the spring, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald tweets.
10:35am: Murphy’s minor league deal contains a $2MM base salary, should he make the big league roster, according to the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier (Twitter link).
9:55am: The Red Sox and free agent outfielder David Murphy are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The Moye Sports Associates client will return to the organization that drafted him with the 17th overall pick in the 2003 draft.
Murphy, now 34 years old, split the 2015 season between the Indians and the Angels, batting a combined .283/.318/.421 with 10 homers on the year. Murphy’s two-year, $12.5MM contract didn’t work out quite as well as the Indians had hoped, but he still managed to post a roughly league-average batting line between the two seasons. He’ll provide the Sox with a contingency plan in the event that Rusney Castillo doesn’t play well enough in Spring Training to justify a 25-man roster spot right out of the gate. Beyond that, it’s difficult to envision precisely how Murphy could end up being a factor on Boston’s Opening Day roster. The Sox figure to have Castillo, Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley roaming the outfield, with Chris Young serving as the fourth outfielder. They’ll have one bench spot reserved for backup catcher Ryan Hanigan, plus another for Brock Holt. Murphy could conceivably grab that final bench spot, but corner infielder Travis Shaw would seem to be the favorite for that slot after a very strong rookie campaign.
AL East Notes: Castillo, Craig, Warren, Sanchez, Rickard
Red Sox outfielder Rusney Castillo won’t be handed a job in 2016, writes Ian Browne of MLB.com. He faces stiff internal competition from Travis Shaw, Chris Young, and Brock Holt for playing time. The 28-year-old Cuban had a challenging first full season in the majors, hitting .253/.288/.359 in 289 plate appearances. He did chip in with possibly elite defense. Castillo blames injuries which prevented him from maintaining his in-season conditioning last year. That led to him wearing down quickly when healthy. He put in a full offseason of work to hopefully counteract that cycle. Per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Castillo needs to show he can be healthy while playing every day.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Allen Craig was outrighted off the Red Sox roster last fall, but he’s in camp competing for a backup role to Hanley Ramirez, writes Sean McAdam of CSN Northeast. Craig’s power has evaporated since his heyday with the Cardinals. He’s still just 31 years old – young enough to rediscover his groove and contribute in the majors. However, he’ll need to make more consistent hard contact, especially to the outfield gaps.
- The Yankees may find it challenging to replace Adam Warren, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Warren, traded to the Cubs for Starlin Castro, filled multiple shoes during his Yankees tenure – swingman, multi-inning reliever, and late-inning reliever. While the Yankees have a fantastic back end of the bullpen, the guys ahead of the top three carry some uncertainty. In the rotation, Ivan Nova is a good sixth starter, but the depth behind him looks shaky. Nova is the most likely to fill Warren’s many-hatted role. Bryan Mitchell is another name to watch.
- Also from Sherman, the Yankees should worry about their first base depth too. Much was made this week about the lack of options behind Chase Headley at third base. At first, Mark Teixeira is coming off his most healthy season in recent memory, but he still hasn’t played more than 123 games since 2011. Prospect Greg Bird is out for the year while Alex Rodriguez isn’t expected to don a glove. Dustin Ackley can help provide depth along with Brian McCann. The club may be better served by acquiring a more traditional alternative. Among free agents, Pedro Alvarez and Justin Morneau may be a little rich for an emergency backup role. I could see Jeff Baker, Corey Hart, Ryan Raburn, and Marlon Byrd as potential fits. Byrd would need to learn a new position.
- The role of Yankees top catching prospect Gary Sanchez will require thought, per Sherman. The club is convinced he’s ready, yet there just isn’t much opportunity to play behind McCann at catcher and Rodriguez at designated hitter. Sanchez, who has options, may benefit more from playing regularly at Triple-A. Meanwhile, both Carlos Corporan and Austin Romine can elect free agency if they aren’t ticketed for the 25-man roster.
- Orioles Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard has a shot to stick, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. With Dexter Fowler returning to Chicago, Rickard could be in the mix as a backup in left or right field. He’s a high contact hitter with speed, plate discipline, and minimal power.
Cafardo’s Latest: Analytics, Archer, Soler, Lucroy, Byrd
John Henry’s recent comments about how the Red Sox have “perhaps overly relied on numbers” in recent years and became too focused on analytics drew quite a bit of reaction from around baseball, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny believes “the enemy of the Red Sox is impatience, not analytics,” noting that properly analyzing the numbers could’ve told Boston that Jackie Bradley or Rusney Castillo wouldn’t be stars overnight, or that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval were risky signings. On the other hand, some scouts praised the Sox for their apparent turn to traditional evaluation over sabermetrics. The Red Sox have been at the forefront of the analytics movement over the last 15 years, so if they succeed in this new direction, Cafardo wonders if other teams could follow suit. Here’s more from Cafardo’s latest column…
- Cafardo points to one notable victory for scouting over analytics from 2011, when the Rays‘ then-top scout convinced Andrew Friedman to obtain Chris Archer as part of the eight-player blockbuster that sent Matt Garza to the Cubs. The scout was sold on Archer, while Friedman’s analytics evaluation were pointing him towards righty Chris Carpenter, who ended up pitching only 15 2/3 innings at the MLB level.
- There’s still “a lot of interest” in Jorge Soler on the trade market, which is an option for the Cubs as they sort out their crowded outfield. With Dexter Fowler rather unexpectedly returning to Chicago, the Cubs have Jason Heyward playing every day in right (or sometimes center) and then Fowler, Soler, Kyle Schwarber and possibly minor league signee Shane Victorino all juggling for playing time, plus Ben Zobrist and Javier Baez also capable of playing left.
- The Brewers are still considering a Jonathan Lucroy trade, as “there’s still buzz in the scouting community” that a deal could come in Spring Training. Lucroy would have to prove himself healthy in the wake of a 2015 season shortened by a concussion and a fractured toe. If he looks good in Cactus League action, that could be enough for another team to pull the trigger on a deal.
- It’s been a quiet offseason for Marlon Byrd rumors, as Cafardo notes that the veteran outfielder “isn’t getting much love on the market.” Interest in Byrd could pick up as teams sort through their roster options, however, and Cafardo lists the Angels, Blue Jays and Orioles as speculative fits. Byrd had 24 homers and an .847 OPS as recently as the 2013 season, but while he’s still managed to hit for power (48 homers) over the last two years, the 38-year-old’s batting average and OBP have fallen off considerably.
Dombrowski’s Contract With Red Sox Is Five-Year Deal
It’s been a little more than six months since the Red Sox announced the hiring of Dave Dombrowski as their new president of baseball operations, but the length of his contract was not previously announced or reported. Dombrowski took care of that fact himself today, telling reporters at Red Sox camp in Ft. Myers, Fla., that he signed a five-year contract with Boston (Twitter link via the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.)
The length of Dombrowski’s contract is on par with what highly respected peers such as Theo Epstein (Cubs) and Andrew Friedman (Dodgers) received when signing on as presidents of baseball operations with their new clubs in 2012 and 2015, respectively. Even some rookie GMs have secured five-year pacts over the past 18 months; A.J. Preller’s deal with the Padres was reported to be a five-year deal when he was hired in August of 2014, and Dombrowski’s successor in Detroit, Al Avila, is also said to have received a five-year deal to take the reins for the Tigers.
Dombrowski wasted little time in meeting the widespread expectation that he would significantly alter the fabric of the Red Sox franchise. His most notable offseason transactions included signing David Price to a seven-year, $217MM contract (with an opt-out clause after 2018), trading four prospects (Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Logan Allen and Carlos Asuaje) for Craig Kimbrel, swapping Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro for Carson Smith and Roenis Elias of the Mariners, adding outfielder Chris Young on a two-year, $13MM deal.
AL East Notes: Bautista, Gurriels, Bruce, Snell
Blue Jays president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro spoke with the media for the first time since reports of Jose Bautista‘s staggering asking price of move than five years and $150MM, and downplayed the story to some extent, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “Every spring training there are contractual situations that come up,” said Shapiro. “You manage them as effectively as possible, always maintaining the focus on what we’re out here to do as a team, and to win a championship.” Shapiro went on to explain that any comments he would have regarding Bautista’s contract would be made directly to Bautista himself or to Bautista’s representation. “For me, respecting the process and the player means you don’t comment on any of those things publicly,” the longtime executive continued. As Shapiro notes, difficult decisions on franchise players nearing the expiration of their contract aren’t exactly uncharted waters for him. In his time at the helm for the Indians, Shapiro dealt with similar situations with franchise legends like Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel, he points out.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- The Red Sox will likely take a pass on Cuban brothers Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., reports Sean McAdam of CSN New England. The Red Sox, of course, are barred from signing the younger Gurriel, Lourdes Jr., for more than $300K after shattering their bonus pool on Yoan Moncada last offseason, but even in the absence of spending restrictions, McAdam’s source indicates that Boston wouldn’t be much of a player. The Sox have expensive veterans in the infield (Dustin Pedroia and Pablo Sandoval) plus a large array of controllable talent at shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) and in the outfield (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and the well-compensated but unproven Rusney Castillo). As such, the team doesn’t have much room on the roster for any sort of additions in the short- or long-term at the brothers’ respective positions.
- Dexter Fowler‘s late demand of an opt-out clause from the Orioles and his subsequent decision to sign a one-year deal with the Cubs could end up being a break for the Reds, tweets Jon Heyman, as Baltimore’s focus could turn back to Jay Bruce, whose trade to the Blue Jays recently fell through due to one of the other players involved in the would-be swap.
- How would an extension work between Blake Snell – a player without service time – and the Rays? Craig Edwards of Fangraphs looked at the different possibilities.
- On Thursday, Orioles exec Dan Duquette and agent Casey Close both commented on the Fowler situation.
Analytics Notes: Red Sox, Phillies
Red Sox owner John Henry spent two months “under the hood” of the team’s analytics process late last season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. What he found led to the hiring of Dave Dombrowski who is well regarded as a talent evaluator. Now the Red Sox are poised to pivot away from their past role as Moneyball with money.
Per Henry, “A lot of our advantage was purely financial. We were never as far toward analytics as people thought we were.” The club has spent the second most on payroll since 2002 which helped to mask a multitude of mistakes. In particular, Henry noted an overemphasis on using past performance to project future ability. That could be why the Sox were more bullish about Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval than other clubs. While those are just two of the most glaring examples, Henry says the same evaluative techniques failed up and down the roster. While it’s popular to quip that Boston should have signed Jon Lester or traded for Cole Hamels prior to 2015, there were too many problems with the roster.
During the Theo Epstein era, the Red Sox had a blend of scouting and analytics, but that balance may have been lost upon his departure, writes Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. However, the shift in strategy could be an overcorrection. In particular, Dombrowski is known for using trades of minor leaguers to bolster the major league club. He’s already executed one high profile move in acquiring Craig Kimbrel. The previous front office seemed to emphasize developing talent, with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart representing the first wave of talent.
In an interesting reversal, the Phillies are now making strides to become more analytically proficient. If the Red Sox were the team most synonymous with sabermetrics, the Phillies were usually identified as the most traditionalist club. Now the two franchises are moving in opposite directions.
Director of baseball research and development Andy Galdi will drive the analytics process in Philadelphia, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The 30-year-old former Google and YouTube employee praised the Phillies’ recent efforts in building their PHIL computer system. Galdi also mentioned the important marriage between scouting and analytics, emphasizing that the two need to work hand and hand.
Galdi believes uncertainty is the missing piece in baseball analysis. Statistics shouldn’t be used to say a player will do X. Rather a range of possibilities should be identified with scouts helping to narrow the focus. It’s important to note that all statistics come with a margin of error. For what it’s worth, sabermetricians have emphasized the importance of error margins for years.
AL East Links: Teixeira, Orioles, Bautista
Though Mark Teixeira has been plagued by injuries in recent years, the first baseman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that he’s hoping to play for five more seasons. “My body feels so good, why not play until I’m 40? Being the kind of hitter I am, I can be a DH the last few years of my career, which could really prolong it. I would love to play that long,” Teixeira said, also noting that he wants to remain with the Yankees after his contract expires this winter. That could be somewhat of a tricky prospect given that New York has Greg Bird as its first baseman of the future and Alex Rodriguez in the DH role through the 2017 season. Still, Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 with 31 homers in a fine bounce-back campaign last year, so he can shown that he can still produce if he can remain healthy. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- The holdup in Yovani Gallardo‘s agreement has delivered a fresh round of criticism towards the Orioles and their high (perhaps overly high) standards in player physicals. As MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko observes, however, avoiding some of these contracts has often been to the club’s benefit. Many of the players the O’s opted not to sign due to health reasons proceeded to decline, either due to injury or simply subpar performance.
- An Orioles staff member also defended the team’s stance on physicals to Peter Gammons, noting that after the O’s backed out of an agreement with Grant Balfour two years ago, Balfour has since badly struggled. Despite the criticism, the Orioles “were right. Dan [Duquette] didn’t deserve the grief he took,” the staff member said. “And if this is what the doctor thinks, why would we pay Gallardo half the amount? If he’s hurt, Peter [Angelos] and Dan don’t owe him anything.” Gammons also hears from two Orioles pitchers that Gallardo’s issue is “really unfortunate” and “apparently pretty serious.”
- By setting a high and seemingly inflexible price on a contract extension, Jose Bautista has made it easy for the Blue Jays to part ways with the slugger after the season, Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star opines.
- Dave Dombrowski has shown a willingness to cut ties with underperforming players regardless of contract status, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recalls the Tigers’ 2003 release of Damion Easley when Dombrowski was Detroit’s general manager. Now that Dombrowski is in charge of the Red Sox, his presence could put added pressure on 2015 struggles such as Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Rick Porcello and Rusney Castillo to improve. (Though with the obvious caveat that eating any of those contracts would cost Boston much more than it cost Detroit to part ways with Easley.)
AL East Notes: Vazquez, Rays, O’s, Marmol, Shreve
Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez seems to be ahead of schedule in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Vazquez tells Bradford that he had a scare last week when he felt some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but the doctors informed him that it stemmed from muscle pain and scar tissue as opposed to any sort of notable setback in his recovery. Vazquez is already throwing to bases from behind the plate, though Bradford notes that it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for game action when games kick off on Feb. 29. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the Rays‘ focus on adding bats this winter will not only help the offense, but also help the pitching staff and bullpen by theoretically sparing them from so many close games. “When we’re playing in one-run games every night, it’s tough. It’s tough to piece together the innings and make sure that we keep everyone fresh,” president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said.
- There’s no reason to worry about Yovani Gallardo passing his physical with the Orioles, based on what Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun hears. Encina also points out that though Gallardo turns 30 later this month, the righty has a strong track record of durability. Gallardo’s physical is said to have taken place around noon today, so the deal could potentially be finalized and formally announced by the team at some point this afternoon.
- The Orioles have been heavily connected to Dexter Fowler, though they’re also looking at other position player options, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Pedro Alvarez, who was rumored as a Baltimore target earlier this offseason, is still being considered by the team.
- The Red Sox believe that Carlos Marmol can be a relief force again after correcting a flaw in his delivery, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes. Marmol’s already-shaky control was worsened by a high arm slot over the last two years, as observed by Boston director of pitching analysis and development Brian Bannister. If this theory is correct and Marmol can get back on track, the Sox may have landed a big strikeout reliever at the cost of just a minor league deal.
- The Yankees‘ big three bullpen aces have drawn much of the attention this winter, though the rest of New York’s relief corps will also play an important role in the team’s success. To this end, Chasen Shreve will be a big figure for the Yankees, though his late-season fade is a concern, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Fatigue or over-thinking may have played a role in Shreve’s late-season struggles, though Brian McCann feels that Shreve was tipping his pitches.
AL East Notes: Hunter, Chapman, Rays, Ramirez
The Yankees have, rather notably, failed to sign a single free agent to a major league contract this winter. But that doesn’t mean the team hasn’t tried. In fact, the team had a two-year deal for between $11.5MM and $12MM in place with righty Tommy Hunter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. But an unidentified issue cropped up in his physical, leading the club to blow up the deal (the timing of which is unclear). Hunter ultimately received just $2MM in guaranteed money from the Indians, of course, though that perhaps also reflected the fact that he needed core muscle surgery in early January and will miss the start of the season.
Here’s more from New York and the rest of the AL East:
- The Yankees‘ opportunistic acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, in the midst of a still-ongoing investigation into domestic violence allegations, raises some hard and uncomfortable questions for the organization, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. Meanwhile, New York is still waiting to learn what kind of punishment may be doled out, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News reports. Indeed, the club is not even sure when it will be informed of a decision. Chapman himself says that he has been interviewed by the league and would appeal any suspension, Passan tweets.
- Rays president of baseball operations Mathew Silverman indicated that he’s not ruling out trade activity this spring, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Silverman explains that the “transaction window is open longer” now than in the past, with other organizations seeming to show an increased willingness to strike deals during camp.
- While the Red Sox are optimistic that Hanley Ramirez can be a productive contributor at first base, writes ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the club has ways to fill in if the experiment fails. Of course, as Olney notes, there’s plenty of time for assessment before any tough choices are made.