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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds had a seemingly successful season in 2013, but an early exit from the playoffs, apparent tensions in their clubhouse, and the possible departure of a star outfielder have led to uncertainty about their future. The Reds still have a strong core in place, but they could go in a number of directions this offseason, some of them franchise-changing.

Guaranteed contracts:

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

The 2013 Reds won 90 or more games for the third time in the past four seasons, but that doesn't mean that all is well in Cincinnati. The team fired manager Dusty Baker after the season, frustrated that it couldn't handle the Pirates in a regular-season-ending three-game set in Cincinnati or a one-game playoff in Pittsburgh. (The Reds quickly replaced him with pitching coach Bryan Price.) Outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who set the table brilliantly with a .423 on-base percentage, is a free agent. And on top of all that, the team will reportedly try to trade star second baseman Brandon Phillips.

Phillips' situation is unusual. The Reds owe him $50MM through 2017. He's getting older, is coming off a down season, and is developing a reputation as a clubhouse problem, so the Reds aren't likely to get much for him. Nonetheless, his contract, while far from great, isn't terrible, given the escalating cost of wins on the free-agent market. One would think that a good, but aging, second baseman with a long history with the Reds would have more value with his current, contending team than with potential trade partners. But the Reds, fed up with Phillips' attitude, apparently feel that isn't the case.

Phillips aside, the Reds appear set in the infield. Joey Votto is one of baseball's best hitters, and he's signed long-term. (Very long-term — he'll make $25MM per year from 2018 through 2023.) Shortstop Zack Cozart and third baseman Todd Frazier are coming off solid seasons, thanks in part to their good gloves. Cozart isn't a strong offensive player, so he'll need to keep fielding well to be effective, but his 2013 season was certainly good enough to pencil him in at shortstop next year. With Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds will likely stand pat at catcher; those two combined for just 0.4 WAR in 2013, but there's reason to hope that Mesoraco, at least, will improve, due to his youth.

Jay Bruce will man right field, and Ryan Ludwick will likely occupy at least a platoon role in left, with the Reds hoping for a full recovery from the shoulder injury that limited him in 2013. If Choo departs, Billy Hamilton would be the obvious candidate to replace him. Hamilton demonstrated down the stretch that his world-class speed is a tremendous weapon. Between his baserunning and the fact that, unlike Choo, he's a legitimate center fielder, it's not ridiculous to hope that the gap between Hamilton and Choo might not be that big, although Hamilton's .308 on-base percentage at Louisville last season is a warning sign. If Choo signs elsewhere, the number of options that would obviously improve on Hamilton is fairly limited, barring a kamikaze pursuit of Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson in free agency. Perhaps signing a cheap center fielder, like Rajai Davis, Andres Torres or Franklin Gutierrez, or a trade for someone like Peter Bourjos, might make sense as an insurance policy. In any case, the Reds' decision to extend Choo a qualifying offer will be a no-brainer.

In the rotation, the Reds will have Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani. Those five could be the basis of a very good rotation, but the Reds will need depth — as it stands, Pedro Villarreal or Greg Reynolds would be the next up if someone got hurt. The obvious solution would be to re-sign Bronson Arroyo, but he doesn't seem likely to return, and maybe that's for the best. Tim Dierkes predicts that Arroyo will receive a two-year, $24MM deal on the open market, and that seems like a lot to pay for a righty whose fastball barely cracks 87 MPH, who doesn't get many ground balls, and who will be 37 before the start of the 2014 season. Given that the Reds already have five solid rotation options, the better solution might be to hope that Arroyo settles for less, or to look for someone cheaper as their depth option.

The bullpen looks relatively set, with a core of J.J. Hoover, Sam LeCure, Jonathan Broxton, rubber-armed Alfredo Simon and a healthy Sean Marshall backing up star closer Aroldis Chapman. The Reds did have mediocre lefty Zach Duke pitching in key situations down the stretch, so it might not be a bad idea to pursue another left-hander to complement Chapman and Marshall — re-signing Manny Parra, who was effective in 2013, might make sense.

Despite a capable pitching staff and a lineup that's reasonably well-stocked with players who are at least decent, the coming offseason could mark a turning point for the Reds. Baker's firing indicates that they aren't satisfied where they are, and in a tough NL Central  (with a perennial powerhouse in St. Louis, a suddenly-relevant Pirates club and a rebuilding Cubs team that could be strong sooner rather than later), maybe they're right not to be. It wouldn't be a shock, then, to see the Reds pull off some outside-the-box move this offseason, along the lines of their signing of Chapman a few years back. (For example, the Reds didn't end up signing Cuban infielder Alexander Guerrero, but they did scout him extensively.)

In any case, the outcome of the Reds' offseason may hinge on Choo and Phillips. Choo's suitors could include everyone from the Cubs to the Mets to the Astros. GM Walt Jocketty has said that re-signing Choo might be tricky. But the Reds might be able to manage it, perhaps by saving money in a Phillips trade and allowing Arroyo to depart via free agency.

For Phillips, one destination could be Atlanta, with the Braves potentially shipping Dan Uggla and a prospect to Cincinnati. Uggla's home-run power would likely play well at the Great American Ballpark, but he would be a big defensive downgrade, and he hit .179/.309/.362 last season. The Reds would have to make up the difference between Phillips and Uggla elsewhere on the diamond, and that wouldn't be easy. Phillips may give the Reds headaches, but by attempting to trade him, they may just be creating another one. Despite playing a corner outfielder in center field, the Reds led baseball in defensive efficiency in 2013. Their fielding was a boon for their pitchers, who posted an ERA nearly half a run lower than their FIP. It would be odd if the Reds began their offseason by replacing one of their most valuable defensive players.

The Uggla rumor might be an unlikely one — he wouldn't save the Reds money, at least not through 2015, so swapping him for Phillips would be an unambiguous step backwards for the Reds that wouldn't give them much chance of making up for it in the short term. But in any case, the Reds will have to be creative this offseason. They could sign a starting pitcher, then deal from their rotation depth for help in the outfield. Bailey, who is set for free agency after the 2014 season, is a wild card; the Reds could trade him, or try to sign him to a long-term deal. The Reds begin their offseason with a number of balls in the air, and when April comes, it's unclear who will be around to catch them.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Reds are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year.  28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year.  Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point.  If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent.  Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return.  Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.

Leake is also looking at a large salary bump after posting a career-best 3.37 ERA in 192 1/3 innings.  He lacks the upside of Bailey, but with two years of control some teams might prefer him.  An extension is another option, though there are few recent comparables from Leake's service class.  A five-year contract worth $40MM+ could be fair, though Leake's low strikeout rate should give the Reds pause.

Despite being signed through 2014, Chapman gets to go through the arbitration process and take his $3MM salary as a bonus.  Assuming the bonus is not factored into the closer's projection, we have him at $4.6MM.  The Reds will find that closers can get expensive in a hurry through arbitration, especially with strong ones in Chapman's service class like Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Greg Holland potentially pushing him up.  I think it's best to go year-to-year with Chapman, as the potential reward of buying out his free agent years starting in 2017 outweighs the risk of guaranteeing him a walk-prone reliever significant money when you don't have to.

Hanigan, a rare OBP-oriented catcher, has finished a three-year deal and enters his contract year.  An oblique strain, a sore thumb, an ankle injury, and a wrist strain hampered him in 2013, helping keep his salary down in the range of a backup.  It makes sense to retain him.  

Heisey continued to show pop against left-handed pitching, though his overall .237 average was a career worst.  He's due a mild raise, and even if the Reds were to look in another direction, a team would might take him on in trade.  Paul's success against right-handed pitching continued, and the 28-year-old has developed into a useful extra outfielder.

Simon finished third in MLB with 87 2/3 relief innings, and is locked in for next year after posting a 2.87 ERA.  LeCure was even better, with a 2.66 ERA and strong strikeout rate in 61 frames.

As a 37-year-old third catcher, Miller will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

Assuming the Reds retain Bailey, Leake, Chapman, Hanigan, Heisey, Simon, Paul, and LeCure, the Reds are looking at a projected $27.4MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Cards, Cubs, Bucs, Tigers

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Baseball's general managers are expected to address the topic of home plate collisions at their meetings in November, Buster Olney of ESPN reports, and some sources believe a rule change could come quickly. "At this point, I don't know who would argue to keep it, or what their argument would be," a team official speaking with Olney said. Team sources said they expect baseball to adopt a rule that would guarantee the baserunner an avenue to the plate, but disallow him from targeting the catcher — the same regulation that's in place at all levels of the game below the majors. Here's the latest from the AL and NL central divisions as Detroit and Boston battle for the AL pennant:

  • Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer ran through queries from Indians fans in a new column, ruling out Bartolo Colon as an option for the Tribe's rotation.
  • Longtime Reds writer Hal McCoy, who continues to keep a blog for the Dayton Daily News, examined where things went wrong between the Reds and Brandon Phillips. The team is reportedly shopping the second baseman, and the Braves may be interested.
  • Tyler Kepner of The New York Times attempted to pin down the reasons behind the Cardinals' sustained run of success, noting the front office's knack for player development.
  • Rick Renteria has become "the clear-cut favorite" among candidates for the Cubs' manager job, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets, reporting that support for the Padres bench coach is "staggering."
  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review assessed the Pirates' chances of carrying their 2013 success into next season. While the club's young core and farm system are reasons for optimism, several of 2013's key contributors may be lost to free agency in the coming years, and the team could be hampered by its middling revenue streams, Sawchik writes.
  • Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski may look to inject some speed into his club's lineup this offseason, Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press reports. 

NL Notes: Cardinals, Phillips, Dodgers

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With the Cardinals advancing to the World Series yet again, SI.com's Tom Verducci writes that it is fair to expect more of the same in the future. Verducci says that the Adam Wainwright–Michael Wacha starting combo has been a younger version of the Diamondbacks' top-of-the-rotation duo of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling during that club's 2001 World Series run. Some of the Cards' top National League competitors, meanwhile, are already looking for ways to knock them off their perch:

  • The Braves could be interested in trading for Reds' second baseman Brandon Phillips if Cinci is amenable to taking on fellow keystoner Dan Uggla in the deal, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta would most likely need to part with a top prospect to make such a deal happen, according to O'Brien. We learned yesterday that the Redlegs were shopping their veteran second bagger. 
  • Meanwhile, after losing to St. Louis, the Dodgers face some significant questions about 2014, writes MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. The club holds options over manager Don Mattingly, second baseman Mark Ellis, and lefty Chris Capuano. With Juan Uribe and Ricky Nolasco reaching free agency, third base and the back end of the starting rotation are question marks. And the pen and bench could also be reworked, according to Gurnick. Though we've already heard that the skipper will return, the remainder of the openings just noted could be filled in any number of ways.

Minor Moves: Rays, Cubs, Purcey, Okajima

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We'll keep track of today's minor moves here..

  • Infielder Ryan Roberts, 1B/OF Shelley Duncan, outfielder Jason Bourgeois and right-hander J.D. Martin have all elected to become free agents, MLBDailyDish.com's Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter links).  All four players were outrighted off the Rays' roster earlier this season.
  • Also from Cotillo (Twitter links), catcher J.C. Boscan and outfielder Darnell McDonald have elected to become free agents.  Both players were outrighted off the Cubs' 40-man roster last week.
  • The White Sox announced they have outrighted David Purcey to Triple-A Charlotte. Purcey, 31, posted a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 6.0 BB/9 in 24 relief appearances. The club's 40-man roster is now at 36.  Purcey was one of Chicago's arbitration eligible players this winter.
  • Left-hander Hideki Okajima and right-hander Chris Resop have elected free agency from the Athletics, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (Twitter link).  Okajima, 38 in December, pitched in five big league games for the A's but spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A where he posted a 4.22 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 37 appearances.  Resop, 31 in November, also spent the lion's share of the year in Triple-A and had a 6.81 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
  • Reds right-hander Jose Arredondo, Angels right-hander Robert Coello, and Marlins third baseman Gil Velazquez have elected free agency under Article XX(D), according to Eddy (via Twitter).  Arredondo struggled at the Triple-A level in 2013, posting a 5.87 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 6.5 BB/9.  Coello made 16 big league relief appearances in 2013 and put up a 3.71 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
  • At Baseball America, Eddy has the full list of the past week's minor league transactions.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

Reds Shopping Brandon Phillips

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The Reds decided a month ago that they will shop Brandon Phillips this winter and intend to trade him, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).  While there are several contending clubs with questions at second base to address this offseason, finding an attractive deal for Phillips could prove to be challenging.

Phillips, 32, is coming off of a down season and is owed $50MM through the 2017 season.  The second baseman slashed .261/.310/.396 in 606 plate appearances in 2013, down from his previous six seasons in Cincinnati where he hit .280/.329/.446.  Despite having a healthy amount of money left on his deal, Phillips openly complained about his contract earlier this year after the club re-upped Joey Votto with a ten-year, $225MM deal.

Teams with openings or potential openings at second base include the Dodgers, Yankees, and Orioles.

NL Central Notes: Choate, Wainwright, Guerrero, Taillon

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As the Cardinals battle to represent the National League Central in the World Series, let's have a look at St. Louis and the two other post-season qualifying members of the division.

  • Left-handed reliever Randy Choate had his pick of the Cardinals and the Dodgers over this past off-season, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His manager, Mike Matheny, credits him not only for his performance on the hill but for mentoring the many excellent young arms that have cycled through the team's bullpen this year.
  • Starting for the Cards this evening was Adam Wainwright, who has been as important as any player to the team's recent successes. As MLB.com's Steve Gilbert writes, the deal that brought him to St. Louis about a decade ago could not have turned out any better for team or player.
  • Walt Jocketty, the GM who pulled the trigger on that trade, is currently at the helm of the rival Reds. Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he is unlikely to bring aboard Cuban middle infielder Alexander Guerrero, who the club was rumored to be in on. "We scouted him extensively and had a lot of discussions," said Jocketty. "But I don't believe anything will happen."
  • Top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon has been shut down after suffering a groin injury in his first outing in the Arizona Fall League, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The injury itself doesn't seem to be significant, however, and it seems unlikely to have a significant impact on the club's plans for 2014. With Taillon now unable to add additional innings to his arm, he will have a base of less than 150 to work from next season. Of course, that is about the level that Gerrit Cole had to build off of this year. Taillon also will miss the chance to develop against AFL talent, but he has already advanced to the upper minors and should get more time there to start the season.

Reds Re-Sign Five Minor League Free Agents

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Here are today's minor transactions from around the league…

  • The Reds announced (on Twitter) that they have re-signed minor league free agents Justin Freeman, Ray Chang, Jose Diaz, Mike Costanzo and Kristopher Negron. Each played for Triple-A Louisville at some point, though Costanzo and Chang spent more time at the Double-A level. Diaz, in particular, was impressive for the Bats, firing 54 1/3 innings of 1.66 ERA ball with 9.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 13 saves.
  • As shown in MLBTR's DFA Tracker, the Rangers' Jeff Baker is the only player that is currently in DFA limbo.

NL Notes: Rockies, Pirates, Mets, Managerial Searches

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The NLCS is taking a day off as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 tomorrow night with the Cardinals leading the Dodgers 2-0. Here is the latest news and notes out of the National League today:

  • The Rockies need to improve their talent acquisition via the draft and Latin America in order to overcome the crushing injuries suffered in recent seasons, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Tim Hudson, whose free agency was profiled this past week by MLBTR's Steve Adams, would make a perfect middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Rockies, Renck opines.
  • The Pirates' payroll will increase significantly in 2014 aiding their efforts to retain free agents Marlon Byrd and A.J. Burnett while also trying to sign Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez to long-term extensions, reports the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Rob Biertempfel.  
  • The Mets will face a dilemma with their 40-man roster when it comes time to protect minor league players from the Rule 5 draft, reports ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. The Mets' 40-man roster is currently full and will be so again once the eight players on the 60-day disabled list replace the eight pending free agents on the 40-man. Jordany Valdespin headlines Rubin's list of eight Mets who could lose their roster spot.
  • The Reds' managerial search is centered on pitching coach Bryan Price and Triple-A manager Jim Riggleman, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay expects Price to get the job; but, if neither candidate impresses ownership in upcoming interviews, the search may be expanded.
  • Nationals third-base coach Trent Jewett has an excellent shot to become the team's next manager, reports ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required).

Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers

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While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:

  • The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
  • Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
  • James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.
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