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Heyman On Lincecum, Cano, Votto, Weaver, Dodgers

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Ryan Braun's $105MM, five-year contract extension through 2020 seemed like it came out of nowhere, but a ton of other young stars also appear to be in line for new deals, writes Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Heyman runs down the 20-somethings that could get hefty contract extensions and touches on a few other things in today's column..

  • Giants ace Tim Lincecum won't be a free agent until after the 2013 season, but San Francisco would be wise to lock him up before his arbitration numbers get out of hand.  A third Cy Young season could potentially bring Lincecum from $14MM into the $25MM range and possibly to $30MM in '13.  Heyman expects a deal to get done, even if it costs the club a fortune.  MLBTR's Tim Dierkes touched on the Lincecum situation here and here, and will have much more on the topic next week.
  • Similarly, there's no reason to think the Yankees would let Robinson Cano leave in the prime of his career.  The Bombers have options for 2012 and '13 at $14MM and $15MM, respectively, and will obviously exercise them. Look for the Yanks to get a deal done with the second baseman, but only after the Scott Boras client files for free agency.
  • Reds slugger Joey Votto will hit the open market after 2013 and it would be wise for the club to lock him up as the youngster continues to improve.  This winter he signed a three-year, $38MM to take care of his arbitration years, but his rate will presumably rise after that deal is up.  Heyman believes that the Reds will lock up Votto, just as they did with Jay Bruce.  This winter, Cincinnati signed the right fielder to a six-year, $51MM deal.
  • Even though the Marlins' poor attendance would seem to indicate that the club doesn't have the funds to sign Josh Johnson to a new deal, they are on their way to a brand-new facility in the near future.  Putting that aside, they're still in the black. His $39MM, four-year deal goes through 2013 but his next contract should easily top that.
  • If you're a Halos fan looking to purchase a Jered Weaver jersey, you may want to reconsider.  Heyman writes that the right-hander is all but a goner in two years.  Agent Scott Boras is talking his client up and the Angels don't have a history of keeping their top free agents anyway.  It's possible that the next Dodgers owner, assuming there is one, could talk the Simi Valley product into a homecoming.
  • It may come as a surprise to some, but Heyman predicts that Andre Ethier will remain with the Dodgers beyond 2012.  GM Ned Colletti is believed to want to lock up Ethier along with Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw.  Even though the Dodgers' situation is probably too messy for anything to get done right away, they have to act fast to keep the 29-year-old. 
  • You can also expect the Dodgers to work something out with Kemp, who is also a free agent after 2012. 
  • Of the 33 players that Heyman profiles, he expects most to get new deals done with their respective clubs.  Some of the players that we may see elsewhere: John Danks, Shin Soo-Choo, Jonathan Sanchez, Justin Morneau, Grady Sizemore, and Shaun Marcum.
  • TV magnate Burt Sugarman is one name believed to be in the mix among potential buyers of the Dodgers.  Investment banker Jason Reese and billionaire Ron Burkle are also in the mix.  Burkle is teaming with former Dodgers great Steve Garvey.

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Willis, Purke

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After consecutive disappointing seasons, Kyle Lohse is averaging nearly 8.0 IP per start this year and has a 1.64 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. Lohse, who signed a $41MM deal with the Cardinals in 2008, is living up to his contract so far in 2011. Here are today's links…

  • Tom Schieffer says he wants to be helpful, not disruptive, when he takes over the Dodgers' day to day operations and finances, according to Quinn Roberts of MLB.com. Earlier today, Dodgers owner Frank McCourt sounded intensely displeased with MLB's involvement in L.A.
  • Dontrelle Willis does not have an out clause in his contract with the Reds, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The left-hander has a 1.12 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 24 innings at Triple-A Louisville so far in 2011.
  • TCU is set to announce that left-hander Matt Purke has been cleared to return to the mound, according to MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo. That's excellent news for Purke, who was recently shut down with shoulder soreness and evaluated by Dr. James Andrews. Click here for MLBTR's Q&A with Purke.

2012 Contract Issues: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (3)

  • Ramon Hernandez's timeshare behind the plate with Ryan Hanigan is working well, and if the Reds can re-up Hernandez in the $3MM range again I think they will.  On the other hand, as several readers have pointed out, prospect Devin Mesoraco is knocking on the door.
  • Jonny Gomes has not seemed to be the Reds' Plan A in recent offseasons.  It's too early to predict what the offseason holds for Gomes or whether his 20% walk rate means anything.
  • Edgar Renteria will also be eligible for free agency.

Contract Options (2)

  • Francisco Cordero: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Cordero blew eight saves last year but is three for three in 2011.  Regardless, I can't imagine the Reds picking this up.
  • Brandon Phillips: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Phillips' power came back down to Earth in '09 and '10, though he's off to a great start this year.  Phillips would like a new contract with the Reds.  I'm not sure whether the Reds will be up for that, but I can picture them exercising the option.

Arbitration Eligible (8)

Not everyone in this group will make it to the point of being tendered a contract.  Bailey, Volquez, Janish, Bray, and Masset should be retained, which could cost around $10MM in total.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Reds' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $51.558MM not including Phillips' buyout.  If he and the arbitration eligibles are retained they could be in the $74MM range, about $7MM shy of this year's payroll.  GM Walt Jocketty won't have much to work with unless payroll is increased, though he would gain flexibility if Phillips is let go or extended on a backloaded deal.

Heyman On Hamilton, Young, Felix, Royals

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Rangers left fielder Josh Hamilton is out for six to eight weeks after enduring a non-displaced fracture of his right shoulder and, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com, some people in Cincinnati may not be completely surprised. After the 2007 season, Reds medical people strongly suggested that the front office should trade Hamilton because of his health reports. Here’s the latest on the Rangers and other notes from around the league:

  • The Rangers were “extremely close” to sending Michael Young to Colorado about a month before Spring Training, according to Heyman. The Rockies loved Young and he would have welcomed a trade to Denver or to either L.A. team. The infielder has since reconciled himself to his role in Texas.
  • A rival GM says he’d trade Felix Hernandez to the Yankees for Ivan Nova, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos and Jesus Montero if he were running the Mariners.
  • One GM says Royals GM Dayton Moore did a good job of ‘bottom feeding’ this winter to come up with left-handers Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis on affordable deals.
  • Andres Torres suffered an Achilles injury, so the Giants need outfield depth and are unlikely to release Aaron Rowand soon. Rowand has a .923 OPS so far including two hits yesterday.

The Brandon Phillips Trade Five Years Later

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Today, Brandon Phillips may be the Reds’ most recognizable player. Five years ago? He was anything but. When then-GM Wayne Krivsky acquired Phillips from the Indians on this date in 2006, he was a 24-year-old unknown who had yet to convert his intriguing potential into Major League production.

Phillips

He’d had his chances. In a season’s worth of plate appearances over the the course of four years in Cleveland, Phillips had just a .556 OPS. The minor league numbers which had once helped solidify his place among the game’s best prospects had fallen off; in his third season at Triple-A, Phillips’ average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all dropped.

But Krivsky decided to give Phillips a chance and the Indians, unable to find room on their roster for the out-of-options infielder, had had enough. Three and a half seasons after acquiring him in the Bartolo Colon trade, then-GM Mark Shapiro sent Phillips to Ohio’s other team for a player to be named later.

The Indians ultimately acquired reliever Jeff Stevens in the deal and would eventually send the right-hander to the Cubs in a trade for Mark DeRosa. The Indians later acquired current closer Chris Perez in exchange for DeRosa, so, in a roundabout way, they have something to show for Phillips.

It doesn’t compare to what the Reds got. In the five seasons since the trade, Phillips has hit .275/.326/.447, averaging 21 homers, 24 steals and 151 games per season, enough for 16.8 wins above replacement (42nd among MLB position players for that period). He has won two Gold Gloves (deservingly, according to UZR) and has a 30-30 season and two other 20-20 seasons to his name. 

Phillips, the longest-tenured position player on the Reds, outlasted Krivsky, who was fired in 2008. But the former GM deserves recognition for a deal that helped the Reds return to the top of the NL Central standings.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

NL Notes: Kroon, Edmonds, Dodgers, Padres

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Links for Saturday, as Ichiro Suzuki will attempt to pick up the one hit he needs to tie Edgar Martinez for the most in Mariners history (2,247)…

  • Giants pitcher Marc Kroon confirmed (via Twitter) that he has decided to remain with the Giants and report to Triple-A Fresno.  The right-handed reliever said at various points this offseason that he would not accept a demotion to the minors.
  • John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer wasn't shocked by Edmonds' recent comments regarding the Reds.
  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon passes along a quote from Jim Edmonds, who blasted the Reds in a recent radio interview. "The worst thing I did was accept that trade for [Reds GM] Walt Jocketty," said Edmonds, who went from the Brewers to the Reds last summer. "I should have shut it down and went home. I would be healthy right now and probably playing." He also criticized the Reds' medical staff.
  • ESPN's Tim Kurkjian listed 11 stories to watch in 2011, including the impending free agencies of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
  • Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers opened the season with a payroll exceeding $95MM, up from $83MM last year. The team also owes $15MM in salary deferments from previous seasons.
  • Tim Sullivan of The San Diego Union-Tribune explains why a recent Forbes report indicating that the Padres had a $37.2MM operating income in 2010 could be misinterpreted.

Lame Duck General Managers

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By now, I'm sure you've looked over our list of players that will be free agents after the 2011 season numerous times, but what about general managers? With some help from Cot's Baseball Contracts, here's the list of GMs without contracts for 2012…

  • Andy MacPhail, Orioles – Technically, MacPhail isn't the GM, he's the president of baseball operations. He's still the guy calling the shots though. Last October we heard that he doesn't have any plans to approach owner Peter Angelos about a new deal before his current one expires.
  • Neal Huntington, Pirates – Team president Frank Coonelly said he expects Huntington to be in Pittsburgh "for a long time" earlier this year.
  • Walt Jocketty, Reds – Cincinnati is clearly a team on the rise, so it seems likely that ownership would want to bring Jocketty back after the season.
  • Dave Dombrowski, Tigers – A few months ago we heard that the fates of Dombrowski and manager Jim Leyland could be a package deal based on the team's performance in 2011.
  • Brian Cashman, Yankees – The third longest-tenured GM in the game would seem to be on rocky ground after being over-ruled by ownership on the Rafael Soriano signing, but we heard afterwards that he still has the "full backing" of the Steinbrenners.

NL Central Notes: Pudge, Chapman, Szczur

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As Starlin Castro and Corey Hart celebrate birthdays today, here's the latest from the NL Central….

  • Writing for MLB.com, Peter Gammons talks to a number of GMs and scouts about the NL Central contenders.  One general manager thinks the Reds could "be the single biggest favorite in any division going into the season," while three scouts are collectively unimpressed with the Brewers, saying "Milwaukee may be awful" this season.
  • Ivan Rodriguez is "not a fit" for the Astros' catching needs, tweets Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  The Nationals are known to be shopping one of their catchers, but Kilgore thinks Rodriguez's $3MM salary in 2011 may be too pricey for Houston, though the 'Stros have said they would add payroll for the right catcher.
  • Aroldis Chapman has been working hard in preparation for his first full Major League season, writes MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.
  • Baseball America's Matt Eddy looks at the details of the contract Matt Szczur signed with the Cubs in January, and also the revamped deal he signed just last week.

Minor Deals: Raynor, Ortegano, McCulloch

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The Nationals claimed Lee Hyde off of waivers from the Braves earlier today. Here are the rest of the day's minor moves…

  • John Raynor requested his release and the Marlins granted it, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter). The outfielder posted a .722 OPS in 41 Triple-A contests last year
  • The Braves lost a second player on waivers today, when the Yankees claimed left-hander Jose Ortegano. The Yankees optioned the 23-year-old to Triple-A, according to Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger (on Twitter). In 131 minor league innings spent mostly at Triple-A last year, Ortegano posted a 5.98 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 as a starter.
  • The Reds acquired right-hander Kyle McCulloch from the White Sox for cash considerations, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (on Twitter). The 2006 first rounder spent last year in the upper minors, where he posted a 5.77 ERA with 3.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 as a swingman.

NL Central Notes: Greinke, Reds, Cardinals

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Links for Tuesday night, as the Cubs decide on the back of their rotation…

  • Zack Greinke told Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post that he chose to join the Brewers over the Nationals because he felt that Milwaukee was going to win sooner than Washington. The Nationals offered Greinke a $100MM extension at one point and Greinke didn’t accept it, though he says he expects the Nationals to be a good team within a few years since owner Ted Lerner wants to win badly. Greinke didn’t rule out the possibility of playing for the Nationals once he becomes a free agent, after the 2012 season.
  • The Brewers are likely to start the season with four starters and eight relievers, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.
  • MLB.com's Mark Sheldon examines the Reds' bullpen and explains that Dontrelle Willis appears to have a good chance of making the team.
  • In a mailbag for MLB.com, Matthew Leach suggests it’s a make or break year of sorts for Cardinals Kyle Lohse, Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker. They’re not the only ones with lots riding on 2011, as the MLBTR team has outlined.
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