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Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

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The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

Phillies Place Connor Brogdon On Injured List

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  • The Phillies placed reliever Connor Brogdon on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain yesterday. He “probably” won’t return this season, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Brogdon has been one of the more reliable arms in a shaky Philly bullpen, tossing 55 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. The right-hander hasn’t missed bats at the huge level he flashed in a small sample last season, but he’s thrown strikes and induced grounders at a slightly above-average rate. Brogdon has worked mostly in medium-leverage situations this season, but his loss further thins a relief corps that leads baseball with 32 blown saves. Those bullpen woes are perhaps the biggest reason the Phils enter play today three and a half games behind the Braves in the NL East and three games back in the Wild Card hunt.

Phillies Release Vince Velasquez

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The Phillies announced they’ve released Vince Velasquez. That was the anticipated outcome once Philadelphia designated him for assignment over the weekend.

Velasquez was on the injured list at the time of his designation (although he had begun a minor league rehab assignment). Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, and with the trade deadline having passed, Velasquez’s designation meant he’d wind up released. That’s mostly a formality anyhow, since he would’ve had the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency while still retaining his entire salary as a player with more than five years of MLB service time.

If Velasquez clears release waivers, he’ll be free to sign elsewhere. That seems likely, as claiming him would require a team to assume the remainder of his $4MM salary (approximately $452K through season’s end). If he clears waivers, a new club could sign the right-hander for the prorated portion of the league minimum while leaving the Phils on the hook for the bulk of the salary.

Whether he’s claimed or signed as a free agent after clearing waivers, Velasquez wouldn’t be eligible for a new team’s postseason roster since he was released after August 31. It’s still possible a team on the fringes of contention could look to bring him in for a couple weeks in an attempt to bolster their pitching depth as they try to make a playoff push. Velasquez worked 3 2/3 innings during his rehab outing last Wednesday, so he’s seemingly nearing readiness in his recovery from the blister issue that landed him on the IL last month.

The release concludes an up-and-down tenure for Velasquez in Philly. Acquired from the Astros as part of the December 2015 Ken Giles trade, the 29-year-old spent parts of six seasons with the Phils. He got off to a very promising start, tossing 131 innings of 4.12 ERA ball while striking out 27.6% of batters faced, a mark that dwarfed that year’s 20.2% league average for starting pitchers. That ultimately proved to be the high-water mark of Velasquez’s tenure in Philadelphia, though.

Over the next five seasons, Velasquez never posted an ERA below 4.85. He showed flashes at times, working in the mid-90s and missing bats at a league average or better rate. But he also issued walks at a higher than average clip in four of his last five seasons (2019 being the exception) while giving up a fair amount of hard, airborne contact. That predictably led to consistent troubles with home runs — particularly in Philadelphia’s hitter-friendly home ballpark — that inflated his run prevention totals.

Velasquez’s up-and-down performances will make him an interesting free agent this winter. (Even if he signs elsewhere for this season’s final couple weeks, he’ll again reach the open market this offseason). He’s still only 29 years old, and Velasquez has shown enough bat-missing promise to remain intriguing. Between their park and lackluster team defenses in recent years, the Phillies haven’t been in position to get the greatest results from their pitching staffs. Perhaps a club with a more pitcher-friendly environment and/or solid defense feels they can yet coax mid-rotation production out of Velasquez, with a multi-inning relief role a fallback possibility if he continues to scuffle as a starter.

Pirates Claim Enyel De Los Santos

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The Pirates have claimed right-hander Enyel De Los Santos off waivers from the Phillies, per a team announcement. Lefty Steven Brault was placed on the 60-day injured list in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Brault left his most recent appearance with tightness in his arm and was placed on the 10-day IL with a lat strain. The Pirates did not provide any update beyond the 60-day IL transfer, which will formally end Brault’s season.

De Los Santos, 25, was once a well-regarded prospect in both the Padres’ and the Phillies’ farm systems. San Diego sent him to Philadelphia in the Dec. 2017 trade that brought Freddy Galvis to the Padres. He appeared in the Futures Game for the Phillies the following season and made his big league debut that summer. Santos appeared in seven games that year, starting two of them, and pitched well outside of one poor outing. Overall, he notched a 4.74 ERA that season through his first 19 MLB frames — plenty respectable for a 22-year-old rookie.

Things haven’t gone as hoped for De Los Santos since that time, however, He’s pitched to a 6.92 ERA in 39 subsequent MLB frames, and while he’d been borderline dominant with Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2018,he served up a 4.40 ERA at that same level the following year. De Los Santos has previously been designated for assignment and gone unclaimed on waivers, but the Pirates scooped him up with the No. 3 waiver priority this time around. The Orioles and D-backs passed on claiming De Los Santos.

Part of the reason for the newfound interest could simply be one of having a straightforward path to making room for De Los Santos, but his work on the field this season is also somewhat intriguing. Granted, a 6.75 ERA in 28 frames isn’t much to look at, but De Los Santos’ 95 mph average heater is a career-best mark in the Majors. He’s also punched out 30.7 percent of his opponents, logged a very strong 14.9 percent swinging-strike rate and induced chases on pitches outside the strike zone at a 33.9 percent clip — all career-highs. Opponents have swung at De Los Santos’ pitches a career-high 54.2 percent of the time and made contact a career-low 72.2 percent of the time.

If he survives the offseason and Spring Training on the Pirates’ roster, De Los Santos will need to break camp with the club or else once again be designated for assignment (or traded). He’ll be out of minor league options in 2022, so he won’t be able to be sent down without first clearing waivers. And at that point, even if he were to go unclaimed, he’d have the option of electing free agency by virtue of the fact that he’s previously been outrighted once in the past.

As for Brault, he’ll look to get back to good health and put behind him what has been a largely nightmarish season. Brault missed most of the season with a strained lat and made just seven appearances before going back on the injured list with a recurrence. He posted a 5.86 ERA in 27 2/3 innings while battling that pair of injuries.

That said, Brault has been a largely serviceable long reliever/fifth starter for the Buccos over the past several seasons, including a strong showing in 2020 when he posted 42 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball. The 29-year-old carries a 4.68 ERA in 315 2/3 innings and will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter. Brault’s strong 2020 resulted in a $2.05MM salary on his first trip through the arbitration process, and he’s unlikely to see much of a raise this winter thanks to the limited workload he compiled. Pittsburgh controls him through the 2023 season.

Phillies Designate Enyel De Los Santos

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The Phillies announced that right-hander Enyel De Los Santos has been designated for assignment.  The move creates roster space for catcher Andrew Knapp’s activation off the COVID-related injury list, and catcher Rafael Marchan has also been optioned to Triple-A.

De Los Santos has been shuttled up and down between the Phillies’ roster and Triple-A Lehigh Valley multiple times this season, with the righty posting a 6.75 ERA and a strong 30.7% strikeout rate over 28 innings out of Philadelphia’s bullpen.  While his strikeout totals have increased by leaps and bounds this season at both the MLB and minor league levels, home runs have continued to plague De Los Santos in the big leagues.  Since the start of the 2019 season, De Los Santos has allowed 11 homers in only 39 innings pitched for the Phils.

This marks the second time in as many seasons that the Phillies have designated De Los Santos, and he was able to clear waivers last year before being outrighted off the 40-man roster.  De Los Santos is only 25 years old, so another team might be interested in taking a late-season flier to bring him into their organization, particularly with his improved strikeout numbers.  De Los Santos whiffed 66 of 184 batters faced in Triple-A and the majors this season, good for a very impressive 35.9% strikeout rate.

Phillies Designate Vince Velasquez For Assignment, Reinstate Matt Joyce

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The Phillies made a number of roster moves today, most notably designating righty Vince Velasquez for assignment, per the team (Twitter links).Velasquez has been on the injured list with a blister issue. Regardless, it’s a disappointing result for Velasquez, who never quite lived up to expectations in Philly, despite six seasons on the roster. This season, Velasquez has a 5.95 ERA/5.58 FIP in 81 2/3 innings.

Time will tell if this is the end of the road for Velasquez and the Phils; the other 29 teams will have the opportunity to claim him off waivers, though that might be unlikely given his current injury status and the fact that he will be a free agent at the end of the season.

In terms of their other moves, Matt Joyce was reinstated from the 60-day injured list to claim one available roster spot. Joyce has just 62 plate appearances this season with much of his usage coming as a pinch-hitter.

Adonis Medina and Mickey Moniak were also recalled from Triple-A. Moniak has 32 plate appearances with the big league club this year. He will see some time as an extra outfielder. Medina will potentially take on some of Velasquez’s former repsonsibilities as a fifth starter. The Phillies may not go with a traditional fifth starter, but Medina could be used as a multi-inning reliever.

Heading out,Enyel De Los Santos and Ramon Rosso were optioned to Triple-A, while Travis Jankowski was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right foot contusion. Jankowski had been the primary alternate in the outfield, but that role will now be taken on by Joyce and Moniak.

Zach Eflin To Undergo Knee Surgery

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Phillies starter Zach Eflin will require surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his right knee, the team announced this afternoon. The procedure is expected to keep Eflin out of game action for six-to-eight months, manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). That leaves open the possibility he could be ready for Opening Day in 2022, but it’s far from certain that’ll be the case.

Eflin has been plagued by knee issues for a large chunk of his career. Late in 2016, the right-hander underwent surgery to repair the patellar tendons in both knees. Afterwards, Eflin told Zolecki the procedures corrected chronic issues that had plagued him for more than a decade. He avoided knee troubles for the next few years, but issues with the joint cropped back up this summer.

The Phils placed Eflin on the injured list on July 20 because of patellar tendinitis. He was activated from the IL five weeks later but was scratched from what would have been his first start because of continued discomfort, followed shortly thereafter by a positive COVID-19 test. While Eflin recovered from the virus rather quickly, his rehab was delayed by continued knee pain that’ll apparently require another surgery to correct.

Losing Eflin for the rest of the season (and potentially a portion of next year) is a substantial blow for a Phillies’ team that has struggled to find reliable back-of-the-rotation innings in recent years. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola make for a fearsome top two, and Philadelphia picked up Kyle Gibson at the trade deadline to bolster the middle of the rotation. But Vince Velasquez has been up-and-down for essentially his entire career, and offseason pickups Matt Moore and Chase Anderson haven’t panned out. (Anderson has already been released).

Those depth issues have forced the Phillies to bump Ranger Suárez into a starting role. Suárez had a fantastic season working in relief and has fared well so far in his attempt to carry that success over to the rotation. Through seven starts, the left-hander has a 1.71 ERA despite some struggles with walks, thanks largely to an elite 63.1% ground-ball rate. Suárez figures to continue getting turns for the remainder of the year, but Philadelphia will have to patch things together on the mound when they need a fifth starter.

Eflin, unlike many of the Phillies’ other starters, has been a measure of consistency in recent years. Excepting a spike in last year’s shortened campaign, the 27-year-old has generally posted league average strikeout numbers. But he’s one of the game’s best at limiting walks and he keeps the ball on the ground, allowing him to be reliably effective in spite of his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Eflin has posted an ERA between 3.97 and 4.36 in each of the past four seasons, including a 4.17 mark over 105 2/3 innings this year.

Last offseason, Eflin and the Phillies agreed on a $4.45MM salary for 2021 to avoid arbitration. He’ll likely be in line for a moderate raise on that figure this winter, as he enters his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. Assuming his recovery proceeds as anticipated, Eflin’s projected salary would still seem reasonable for his typically solid production. But he could be a non-tender candidate if he’s not progressing on schedule come November, as he’d reach free agency after next season anyhow.

Solidifying the back of the rotation was likely to be an offseason priority for the Phillies even before news of Eflin’s surgery. That’ll be all the more true now, although there’s little recourse but to rely on the internal options for the remainder of this season as they hope to mount a playoff push. The Phillies enter play tonight two and a half games back of the Braves in the NL East and two games behind the Reds and Padres for the National League’s final Wild Card spot.

Phillies Activate Didi Gregorius, Return Jorge Bonifacio To Minors

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The Phillies announced they have activated shortstop Didi Gregorius from the restricted list. To create active and 40-man roster space, Philadelphia returned outfielder Jorge Bonifacio to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Additionally, the Phils activated outfielder Travis Jankowski from the paternity list and optioned infielder Nick Maton to Lehigh Valley.

Gregorius had been away from the team for a few days in his native Curacao to attend the birth of his child. He was originally placed on the paternity list but required more than the three days allotted for paternity leave, so he was briefly transferred to the restricted list. That opened up a 40-man roster spot for the selection of reliever Ramón Rosso, and Gregorius’ return pushes Bonifacio off the roster.

It has been a tough season for Gregorius, who is hitting just .221/.274/.393 over 307 plate appearances. That’s the left-handed hitter’s worst production since his 2014 season with the Diamondbacks, and a far cry from his .284/.339/.488 mark last year. That strong first season in Philadelphia earned him a two-year free agent deal to return last offseason. His getting back on track at the plate will be crucial to the Phils’ hopes of erasing a two-game deficit in the NL East or grabbing the NL’s final Wild Card spot.

Bonifacio was selected last week as a COVID-19 replacement, stepping in when three players (Zach Eflin, Andrew Knapp and Luke Williams) tested positive for the virus. Healthy and safety protocols allow those players to be taken off the roster without being exposed to waivers. The 28-year-old has gone 1-11 with a walk and six strikeouts in seven games this season.

Phillies Select Cam Bedrosian, Ramon Rosso

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The Phillies announced they’ve selected the contracts of relievers Cam Bedrosian and Ramón Rosso. They will take the two additional active roster spots available to teams as part of September expansion. To create space on the 40-man roster, first baseman Rhys Hoskins has been transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list and shortstop Didi Gregorius has been placed on the restricted list.

Bedrosian is back in the majors with his third club of the season. He began the year with the Reds but struggled mightily, leading to his release. He performed far better upon making it back to the majors with the A’s but was squeezed off the roster nonetheless. Between the two teams, Bedrosian has a 5.52 ERA over 14 2/3 innings with disappointing strikeout and walk rates (21.1% and 14.1%, respectively).

That said, Bedrosian was one of the game’s more reliable relievers for much of his time with the Angels before this season. And he’s pitched quite well since latching on with Philadelphia via minor league deal in June. Over twenty innings with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Bedrosian has a 2.25 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates. That’ll earn him another look at the big league level — ironically with the same club with which Bedrosian’s father Steve won the 1987 NL Cy Young award.

Rosso is back after being passed through outright waivers in May. The 25-year-old has worked eleven big league innings over the past couple seasons. He’s spent much of the year with Lehigh Valley, pitching to a 4.50 ERA with underwhelming strikeout and walk numbers over 28 innings.

Hoskins’ IL transfer is entirely procedural. He is out for the season after it was revealed he’d require abdominal surgery last week. Gregorius, meanwhile, is in his native Curacao due to the birth of his child. He has been on the paternity list for the past three days but will apparently need more time away from the club.

Additionally, the Phils announced that reliever Seranthony Domínguez has been reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned to Lehigh Valley. Philadelphia’s on-time closer, Dominguez hasn’t pitched since 2019 on account of Tommy John surgery. He began a minor league rehab assignment in early August and his 30-day allotted window was closing. Domínguez’s control hasn’t been there during his rehab looks, though, so he’ll get some more minor league time to try to iron things out. The right-hander has a 3.27 ERA over 82 2/3 big league innings.

Realmuto Day-To-Day With Ankle Injury

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The Phils can only hope that Realmuto’s injury isn’t too serious, as the All-Star is perhaps the indispensable member of the roster.  Though Realmuto has been ticketed for most time at first base, he is still the team’s primary catcher, and his absence will further test a position already thinned by the absence of Andrew Knapp (positive COVID-19 test).  Rafael Marchan is the only other available backstop, and the Phillies would have to create a 40-man roster spot to add the contract of Tyler Heineman from Triple-A.

J.T. Realmuto is day-to-day with left ankle soreness after the Phillies star made an early exit from today’s 7-4 win over the Diamondbacks.  Phillies manager Joe Girardi told reporters (including NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury) that Realmuto hurt his ankle during a fifth inning at-bat, which forced Realmuto be replaced in the field to begin the sixth inning.

The Phils can only hope that Realmuto’s injury isn’t too serious, as the All-Star is perhaps the indispensable member of the roster.  Though Realmuto has been ticketed for most time at first base, he is still the team’s primary catcher, and his absence will further test a position already thinned by the absence of Andrew Knapp (positive COVID-19 test).  Rafael Marchan is the only other available backstop, and the Phillies would have to create a 40-man roster spot to add the contract of Tyler Heineman from Triple-A.

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