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Blue Jays Acquire Daulton Varsho From D-Backs For Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.

Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.

The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.

For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.

The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.

Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.

As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.

Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.

Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.

The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.

In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Claim Anthony Kay, Designate Alfonso Rivas

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The Cubs announced they’ve claimed left-hander Anthony Kay off waivers from the Blue Jays. To clear a 40-man roster spot, first baseman Alfonso Rivas was designated for assignment.

Kay lost his spot on the Toronto roster last week once the team officially signed Chris Bassitt. The 27-year-old had spent three-plus years in the organization. A former first-round draftee of the Mets, Kay was acquired alongside Simeon Woods Richardson in the 2019 trade that landed now-teammate Marcus Stroman in Queens. He’d been in Triple-A at the time and debuted at the big league level with Toronto later in the season.

The UCONN product has appeared in the bigs in four straight years, though he’s yet to top 33 2/3 innings in a season. He made only one MLB appearance in 2022, bringing him to 28 for his career. Working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, Kay has a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. He’s fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents but walked batters at an 11.6% clip.

Kay has pitched parts of three years at Triple-A. He’s struggled to a 6.02 ERA over that stretch, thanks in large part to an 11.5% walk rate. The 2022 campaign was a particular challenge. Limited to 14 Triple-A innings by injury, he allowed 14 runs in as many innings with 15 strikeouts and 11 free passes.

While he hasn’t found much high level success to date, Kay represents an intriguing bullpen flier for the Chicago staff. He averaged 94.5 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball during his MLB outing this past season. He’s shown the ability to miss a decent number of bats and has a notable prospect pedigree, and the Cubs will work to try to iron out his control woes. He has one minor league option year remaining, so the Cubs can bounce him between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man spot.

Rivas was a fourth-round pick of the Athletics in 2018. He was dealt to Chicago for Tony Kemp a year and a half later. Rivas didn’t play in 2020 because of the minor league cancelation and has spent the past two seasons in the upper levels. He’s moved between Chicago and Iowa as a depth option. He has hit well in Triple-A, posting a .300/.398/.433 line across 377 plate appearances. Rivas flashed that offensive potential at the MLB level in 2021 but stumbled to a .235/.322/.307 mark over 287 trips to the dish this year.

The left-handed hitter has shown a patient plate approach, working plenty of walks but also striking out quite a bit. That’s largely a product of the deep counts with which he’s comfortable. Rivas doesn’t have prototypical power for a player who’s limited to first base or the corner outfield, hitting four homers and six doubles in 119 big league games.

Chicago will have a week to deal Rivas or try to run him through waivers. If another team were to put in a claim or swing a small trade, they could option him to the minors for another two seasons.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Finding A Trade Partner For The Blue Jays’ Catching Surplus

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Entering the offseason, there were several high-profile catchers available for teams seeking upgrades — and the list of teams in search of an upgrade was quite long. Two months into the offseason, however, the options have dwindled in a hurry. Willson Contreras broke the hearts of many Cubs fans by signing for five years with the division-rival Cardinals. Christian Vazquez, the No. 2 catching option on the free-agent market, is headed to Minnesota on a three-year contract. Sean Murphy, the top option overall, was traded to a team that didn’t even expressly need a catcher — the Braves — and as a result of what wound up being a three-team swap, the Brewers saw William Contreras fall into their laps. Omar Narvaez signed with the Mets on a two-year, $15MM deal that gives him a chance to return to the market next winter.

Other teams have made smaller-scale moves. Cleveland added former Rays and Mariners slugger Mike Zunino on a one-year deal, likely removing them from the market. The A’s wound up taking Manny Pina’s contract from the Braves in that Murphy deal, so they’re unlikely to pursue a backup to prospect Shea Langeliers. The Reds inked Cincinnati native Luke Maile to back up Tyler Stephenson.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last week, the catching market has been largely picked over — with one notable exception. The Blue Jays have yet to trade any of their three big league-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno. There’s no dire need in Toronto to move any of that trio, but the Jays are a win-now team with a catching surplus and needs elsewhere on the roster (left-handed bat, bullpen help). Trading one of those catchers could bring back some needed help for the 2023 campaign while simultaneously adding a prospect or two to their system.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins acknowledged the Jays’ surplus today, calling the catching market “exceptionally strong” but also expressing he’d be comfortable carrying all three of his catchers into the 2023 season (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Moreover, Atkins suggested his focus is now shifting to improving the lineup — likely by adding a left-handed bat that could slot somewhere into the outfield mix. With many (but not all) of the top options on the free-agent market already picked over, it stands to reason the Jays could leverage their catching surplus to help address that need.

Of course, with so many teams having already filled their catching needs, the Blue Jays’ trade partners aren’t quite as plentiful as they might have been a few weeks ago. However, while they’ll likely be dealing with a smaller number of clubs now, the Jays have more leverage with those teams still seeking a catcher, because there just isn’t much else available in terms of starting-caliber difference makers behind the plate. Toronto’s wealth of catching options makes for one of the more fascinating trade scenarios around the league, so it seems worth it to take a closer look at the situation as a whole.

The potential trade candidates

Danny Jansen, 27, controlled through 2024 via arbitration (projected $3.7MM salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

It’s been an up-and-down career at the plate for Jansen, in part because injuries have intervened at times. Jansen missed more than a month in 2022 with separate injuries (broken finger, oblique strain) and missed a combined two months of the 2021 season with two separate hamstring strains. He’s played in just 142 games over the past two seasons.

On the flip side, Jansen has been anywhere from an above-average to excellent hitter in three of his five Major League seasons. He struggled in 2019-20 but since Opening Day 2021 carries a .243/.321/.496 batting line with 26 home runs in just 453 plate appearances. Jansen has easily the most power of the Jays’ three potentially available catchers and could realistically pop 25-plus homers if he were to stay healthy for a full season.

Defensively, Jansen has been about average in terms of caught-stealing rate and has above-average framing marks for his career, though those dipped to below-average in 2022 (perhaps not coincidentally, given that the aforementioned fractured finger was on his glove hand). Jansen has two arb years left but shouldn’t break the bank in that time. There are health concerns, but he’s a clear starting-caliber catcher who’d be an improvement for more than a third of the teams in MLB.

Alejandro Kirk, 24, controlled through 2026 (pre-arbitration in 2023)

Kirk only turned 24 in November but already has two years of Major League service time, an All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger under his belt. He appeared in 139 games for the Jays in 2022, serving as their primary catcher while Jansen missed time due to the aforementioned injuries. Along the way, Kirk hit .285/.372/.415 with 14 homers and 19 doubles. A hit-over-power player, Kirk has a career .278/.362/.426 slash with an 11% walk rate against an 11.1% strikeout rate (83 walks to 84 strikeouts).

Strong as the bat is, Kirk isn’t without limitations. He’s one of the slowest players in baseball (third percentile sprint speed, per Statcast) and has a below-average caught-stealing rate, due in part to slow “pop times” when coming out of his crouch; Statcast rated his pop time to second base in the 32nd percentile of MLB catchers. On the other hand, Kirk draws outstanding framing marks and above-average grades for blocking pitches in the dirt.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, controlled through at least 2028 (pre-arbitration in 2023)

Moreno is likely the most difficult of the entire bunch to move, given his remaining six years of club control and status as one of the five best prospects in baseball. He’ll turn 23 in February and just wrapped up a season that saw him bat .315/.386/.420 in 267 Triple-A plate appearances before batting .319/.356/.377 with just an 11% strikeout rate in 73 MLB plate appearances as a rookie.

While he’s not billed as a major power threat — Moreno’s career-high in homers is 12, and he hit just four in 2022 — Moreno draws praise from scouting reports for a potential plus-plus hit tool and strong glovework behind the dish. He’s not necessarily “fast,” but he’s not the plodder many would expect from any catcher. He drew average grades for his speed on scouting reports, and Statcast pegged him right in the 50th percentile for sprint speed this past season. Even if he’s not hitting more than 10 to 15 homers per year, Moreno has the potential to post high batting averages and on-base percentages while providing better-than-average defense behind the plate.

Which teams are likely OUT on a catcher

Teams that already added a starter this winter

Any of the Jays’ three catchers would be viewed as a potential starter on a substantial portion of MLB’s 30 teams, but as noted above, a fair number of teams have already found a new starting catcher this winter. Don’t expect the Cardinals (Willson Contreras), Twins (Christian Vazquez), Braves (Sean Murhpy), Brewers (William Contreras), Guardians (Mike Zunino) or Mets (Omar Narvaez) to make a play for one of Jansen, Kirk or Moreno after all six of those clubs already landed a new starting backstop this winter.

Teams that already have a standout or promising young incumbent

The Braves’ acquisition of Murphy shows that teams can never fully be ruled out of finding a creative way to acquire a new, impact player — but it still seems unlikely that any of the remaining clubs with a high-end starter behind the dish will make a play for a Jays catcher. That means the Phillies (J.T. Realmuto), Dodgers (Will Smith), Orioles (Adley Rutschman), Reds (Tyler Stephenson) and Royals (Salvador Perez, defensive issues notwithstanding) all seem unlikely to pursue any of Toronto’s backstops.

Teams with controllable young catchers of their own will also likely steer clear. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh had his OBP woes in ’22 but also hit with more power than any catcher in MLB. Top Angels prospect Logan O’Hoppe will get every opportunity to establish himself in 2023. The Rangers’ Jonah Heim and Yankees’ Jose Trevino, both standout defenders with several years of club control remaining, remove any urgency for either club to dive headlong into this market as well.

Rebuilding clubs with young catchers

You could certainly make that argument that a rebuilding team like the Nationals, A’s or Pirates would be wise to pursue Kirk or especially Moreno, but the Jays are going to want controllable, MLB-ready help in return, which a lot of rebuilding clubs don’t have in spades. Add in the fact that the Nats (Keibert Ruiz), A’s (Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom) and Pirates (Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez) all have young catchers of note already in house, and a trade becomes more difficult to see.

Long shot teams (for one reason or another)

The White Sox would probably be thrilled to get their hands on a Jays catcher, but Toronto’s top need is a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and Gavin Sheets isn’t going to be the centerpiece for anyone in this Toronto catching corps. The Sox also have a year and $18.25MM to go on their deal with Yasmani Grandal — a contract not easily moved. I’m sure the Tigers would love Kirk or Moreno, but they’re lacking in MLB talent from which to deal.

The Padres got a disappointing year from Austin Nola in 2022 but also have ballyhooed top prospect Luis Campusano as an in-house alternative. The Marlins still need catching help after a poor showing from Jacob Stallings but lack the MLB-ready outfield help the Jays might covet in trade. The Rockies are in a similar boat, having received a dismal showing from Elias Diaz in 2023. Like the Marlins, they’re short on the type of big league help the Jays would seek.

The most logical trade partners (listed alphabetically)

  • Astros: After missing out on Willson Contreras in free agency, the Astros will once again entrust light-hitting Martin Maldonado behind the plate. Maldonado played through a hernia and a broken bone in his hand, but his lack of production can’t be blamed on those injuries alone. Dating back to 2015, Maldonado’s 72 wRC+ is 16th-worst among 459 qualified MLB hitters. The Astros love Maldonado’s defense, game calling, game planning, and clubhouse leadership — and to his/their credit, they won a World Series with Maldonado as their primary catcher. That said, he’ll be 37 next summer and is on a one-year deal. Prospect Korey Lee hasn’t hit much above A-ball. There’s a good on-paper fit here, though the elephant in the room is that the Astros lack the MLB-ready bat the Jays might covet in return; Kyle Tucker surely isn’t going anywhere.
  • Cubs: The Cubs let Contreras walk, deferring to the older and more defensively-minded Yan Gomes while waiting for prospect Miguel Amaya, who missed much of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Any of the three Jays catchers would be an upgrade to the Cubs’ roster, and either Kirk or Moreno would supplant Amaya as the organization’s catcher of the future. The Cubs don’t have the controllable, big-league-ready bat the Jays might prefer, but they could send a year of switch-hitting outfielder Ian Happ and a prospect package behind him if they were to become serious about landing a Toronto catcher.
  • D-backs: The cleanest fit for a good-old-fashioned “baseball” trade, the D-backs have four left-handed-hitting outfielders — Jake McCarthy, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll — and are open to offers in a similar capacity to the Jays with regard to their catchers. Carroll seems all but untouchable, but any of McCarthy, Varsho or Thomas seems like a feasible starting point when looking at Toronto’s more controllable catchers (Kirk, Moreno). Toronto and Arizona are excellent trade partners, in this regard.
  • Giants: There’s likely still hope in San Francisco that Joey Bart can solidify himself as the everyday catcher, but he’s seen MLB time in three seasons now and owns a .222/.294/.351 slash in 408 plate appearances. Bart hasn’t dominated Triple-A pitching, either, and the Giants at least inquired with the A’s about Murphy before his trade to Atlanta. Like the ’Stros, however, I’m not sure the Giants have the sort of immediate upgrades Toronto would seek. Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. are both lefty-swinging outfielders with three remaining years of club control, but both are coming off down seasons at the plate.
  • Rays: Francisco Mejia hasn’t developed into the hitter anyone hoped, and journeyman Christian Bethancourt posted a .265 OBP with the Rays in 2022. The Rays were a rumored suitor for Murphy and checked in on Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. They’re clearly open to augmenting the catching staff, though payroll is always a consideration. The Rays aren’t deep in left-handed bats, but Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda could all have some appeal to the Jays. The former Lowe is still signed affordably for four years, though, while the latter has yet to deliver on his former top prospect status. Aranda, meanwhile, has torn through upper-minors pitching but is a poor defender who lacks a clear defensive home. With the Rays, of course, it’s worth wondering whether division rivals would even be amenable to swapping long-term pieces.
  • Red Sox: That last point on the Rays applies here, too, but the trade of Vazquez (and his subsequent deal with the Twins) leaves the Sox with a combination of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate. Boston doesn’t have another catcher on the 40-man roster, and the closest they have to an MLB-ready catching prospect is Ronaldo Hernandez, who went unclaimed on waivers two weeks ago. This is an organization that would benefit either from a two-year bridge like Jansen or, more improbably, a long-term solution like Kirk or Moreno. Perhaps there’d need to be some pieces added to balance both sides of the deal, but either Alex Verdugo or Jarren Duran fall into the bucket of MLB-ready outfield help the Jays could consider.

The D-backs represent the cleanest fit, in my view, though there are plenty of other options to consider, particularly if you want to brainstorm potential three-teams swaps like the one that sent Murphy to Atlanta. The bottom line, however, is that while many catching-needy teams have filled their vacancies, the Jays should still have plenty of interest in their catchers in the weeks to come. At this point, the majority of the roads on the catching market run through Toronto.

Atkins: Blue Jays Shifting Focus To Offense

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The Blue Jays’ offseason has primarily been focused on run prevention to this point, as the club has added Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. General manager Ross Atkins spoke with the media today as part of Bassitt’s introduction to the press and said that their focus will now “shift to offensive improvement,” per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

The Blue Jays were one of the strongest offensive teams in the league in 2022, as their collective .264/.329/.431 batting line was 18% above league average. The team-wide 118 wRC+ was the second-best mark in the majors, trailing only the 119 of the Dodgers. Most of the club’s lineup projects to be back for 2023, with the most notable departure being Teoscar Hernández, who went to the Mariners in the Swanson trade.

The club has since added Kiermaier to their outfield mix, who is a much better defender than Hernandez but inferior on offense. Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 in 2022 for a 90 wRC+ and has a career batting line of .248/.308/.407, 97 wRC+. Hernandez hit .267/.316/.491 in 2022, 129 wRC+, and has a career slash line of .262/.319/.499 for a 120 wRC+. Given that gap, it’s unsurprising that the club would look to find some more offense before the offseason is done.

The most likely method for the Jays to find that extra pop in the lineup is through a left-handed hitting outfielder. The club has already been connected to players like Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Brantley and Masataka Yoshida, though all four of those players have now agreed to terms elsewhere. Michael Conforto in still unsigned, with the Jays having been connected to him in the past. He would be a risky play since he missed all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery and also had a disappointing season in 2021. But in the four-year stretch from 2017 to 2020, he hit .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133. If he’s capable of getting back to that range, that would go a long way to making up for the departure of Hernandez.

Signing Conforto or some other free agent like Jurickson Profar, Matt Carpenter or David Peralta would add to the club’s payroll and luxury tax ledger, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue at the moment. “We’re not limited financially,” Atkins tells Nicholson-Smith. Roster Resource puts the club’s payroll at $207MM at the moment, which is already a franchise high. They are also into luxury tax territory for the first time, with their CBT number just a hair over the $233MM threshold. Based on Atkins’ comments, it seems there’s still more room to continue adding.

Another path to the club upgrading would be trade, with the club’s three catchers being frequently mentioned in trade rumors for quite some time. The club has yet to pull the trigger, with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno all still on the roster. Recent reporting suggested that the club would be comfortable holding onto all three and Atkins backed that up today. He said that the catching market is “exceptionally strong,” per Nicholson-Smith, but that the Jays are “100% comfortable” keeping all three and “remaining in that position of strength.”

Though the focus is on offense, it seems a pitching upgrade is still on the table. “We’ll continue to think about ways to improve,” Atkins told the press, per Nicholson-Smith. That lines up with recent reporting that suggested they’ve shown interest in Johnny Cueto, though it seems the lineup will be top of the agenda for now.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays’ Catchers, Yoshida, Red Sox

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All off-season it’s seemed a matter of when not if the Blue Jays trade one of their three catchers – Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Gabriel Moreno. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Blue Jays were open to trading Jansen to bring in a starting pitcher, but after landing Chris Bassitt on a three-year, $63MM deal Feinsand reports that a trade is no certainty now.

In any event, Toronto is in a strong negotiating position as there’s a few paths they could go down. The clear top two free agent options – Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez – are off the board, while the Braves have acquired Sean Murphy, making the Blue Jays the clear and obvious fit for any catcher-hungry teams. They could also opt to carry three catchers on the active roster, cycling players through the DH spot, or option Moreno back to Triple-A and go with a Kirk-Jansen tandem to begin the year at least.

The additions of Bassitt to the rotation and Kevin Kiermaier to the outfield decrease the clear needs for the Blue Jays to address this winter, but in a competitive AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ultimately opt to pursue further upgrades, whether via trade or free agency. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, the Jays were finalists for Masataka Yoshida (the Dodgers were the other finalist) before he signed for the Red Sox. It’s not clear whether the Kiermaier signing arose because they missed out on Yoshida, or whether they tried to sign both, but given the former’s injury history and declining production it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them seek another outfielder.

Boston’s signing of Yoshida addressed the need to upgrade their offense following the departure of Xander Bogaerts to San Diego. It also likely spelled the end of any chance of Eric Hosmer, who was DFA’d yesterday, receiving regular at bats. The Red Sox look to have locked in youngster Triston Casas as their everyday first-baseman moving forward, while Yoshida (and others) could well take a few DH at bats as the Red Sox cycle through their outfielders. Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom addressed the DFA of Hosmer to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

“Our roster isn’t complete yet, but as we build our club, we feel it’s important to give Triston a clear lane, and that carrying two left-handed hitting first basemen would leave us short in other areas. Given that, it’s important to do right by Eric and give him time to find his next opportunity. We knew when we first got him that this day would come at some point, and wanted to make sure we treated him right.”

Cotillo also reports that the Red Sox tried hard to trade Hosmer prior to DFA’ing him, but found minimal interest in the league. Hosmer did receive a full no-trade clause as part of the trade that sent him from San Diego to Boston at the deadline, but Cotillo’s report said that the lack of trade interest meant the no-trade clause didn’t even come into play. The Red Sox can still trade him while he’s on waivers, but it seems likely he’d be released onto the open market.

While an outgoing trade of Hosmer seems unlikely, the team is working on incomings, and recently asked the Marlins about Miguel Rojas, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rojas was one of the top defensive shortstops in the sport last season, and as Rosenthal notes, the Marlins value that defense and rebuffed Boston’s inquiry. Rojas is under contract for one more year at an affordable $5MM salary.

Blue Jays To Sign Chris Bassitt

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December 16: Bassit’s deal has now been officially announced by the team, with left-hander Anthony Kay designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The contract is split into three even salaries of $21MM, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The first season will actually be a $3MM signing bonus and $18MM salary, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 12: The Blue Jays have agreed to a three-year, $63MM contract with free-agent righty Chris Bassitt, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Bassitt is represented by Meister Sports Management.

In adding Bassitt, the Jays have fortified a rotation that saw Ross Stripling reach free agency, lost Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery early in the summer, and experienced substantial struggles from righty Jose Berrios and lefty Yusei Kikuchi in 2022. The ultra-consistent Bassitt will step into the mix behind third-place Cy Young finisher Alek Manoah and ninth-place finisher Kevin Gausman, with Berrios and Kikuchi likely to follow.

Bassitt, 34 in February, is a late-bloomer who didn’t establish himself as a consistent big league rotation piece until his age-29 season — partly due to Tommy John surgery wiping out the bulk of his 2016 season and all of his 2017 campaign. However, since a 2019 breakout with the A’s, he’s been among the sport’s most effective arms. In that time, Bassitt carries a sharp 3.31 ERA with a strong 23.1% strikeout rate, a tidy 6.7% walk rate and a 44.3% ground ball rate that’s a bit better than average.

Though Bassitt’s results have been excellent, he hasn’t quite yet solidified himself as a 30-start workhorse, although that’s not necessarily through any fault of his own. He missed the first few weeks of the 2019 season due to a leg contusion he suffered late in a spring training game but came back to make 28 appearances (25 starts) of 3.81 ERA ball. In 2020, he made 11 starts and tallied 63 innings during the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule.

Bassitt looked well on his way to a career-best season in 2021 but was interrupted by one of the most frightening scenes in recent baseball memory, when he took a 100 mph line-drive off his face. The right-hander immediately dropped into a heap on the mound and had to be carted off the field with a towel covering his face. While there was originally some concern of long-term vision problems, Bassitt incredibly escaped with “only” fractures in his cheekbone and jawbone, with no further damage being revealed on a subsequent CT scan and no long-term vision issues. Bassitt not only avoided a worst-case scenario but returned from surgery just six weeks later and pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across two appearances to close out the season.

Traded to the Mets as part of the Athletics’ fire sale following the 2021 season — Oakland acquired righties J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller in the deal — Bassitt made a career-high 30 starts and reached a career-high 181 2/3 innings in New York. He also averaged better than six innings per start, turned in a career-best 48.8% ground-ball rate and recorded a 3.42 ERA with fielding-independent marks to match in what’ll now likely be his lone season in Queens.

The Mets made Bassitt a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he unsurprisingly rejected, recognizing the opportunity for just this type of lucrative multi-year deal. By signing him to this contract, which lands right in line with the three-year, $60MM predicted by MLBTR at the outset of the offseason, the Blue Jays will be required to forfeit their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft. They’ll also see the cap on their international bonus pool for amateur free agents reduced by $500K.

That’s all of minimal concern to the Blue Jays, who are clearly in win-now mode as they look to keep pace in one of the game’s most competitive divisions. Adding Bassitt is a large step toward that end — one that ostensibly aligns with a push to improve the team’s run-prevention, perhaps at the expense of some offensive thunder.

Toronto kicked off its winter by trading its final year of club control over Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners — a deal that netted them an under-the-radar but high-end reliever, Erik Swanson, and a fairly well regarded pitching prospect, Adam Macko. The Jays remained largely quiet in the weeks to come, but just this weekend struck a deal with longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — one of the premier defensive players in the sport (when healthy). Of course, staying on the field has been difficult for the oft-injured Kiermaier and his devil-may-care approach to defense in center; he’s currently on the mend from season-ending hip surgery.

While the financial specifics of Kiermaier’s contract have yet to come to light, the sequence of moves will surely bring the Jays up to a franchise-record payroll. Bassitt alone brings their projected payroll a bit north of $200MM — already a club record — and Roster Resource projects their luxury-tax ledger to check in a bit north of $225MM. It’s possible that Kiermaier alone will push them to the $233MM first tier of luxury penalization, which would mark the first time the Blue Jays have crossed that barrier.

Of course, the entire picture could still change — at least to some extent. Toronto is also in the market for a left-handed bat to add to an near-entirely right-handed lineup, and the Jays’ front office has reportedly been willing to listen to trade offers on its trio of MLB-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Free agents Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto are among the most obvious fits, but the Jays could also ship one-third of that catching triumvirate out as part of a deal to acquire a younger left-handed bat and/or additional reinforcements to a bullpen that could still benefit from an arm or two.

However the remainder of the offseason plays out, Bassitt’s addition to a pair of righties who generated some Cy Young love in 2022 should give the Jays a formidable rotation, even if none of Berrios, Kikuchi or sixth starter/swingman Mitch White bound back in 2023. Not only will the Jays be strong on a per-inning basis, but the combination of Manoah, Gausman and Bassitt have all averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in recent years, which should go a long way toward helping keep the team’s bullpen fresh.

Berrios, at his best, has been similar — averaging six-plus innings per outing in 2018, 2019 and 2021. However,, the 2022 season was a wildly uncharacteristic one for Berrios, who in many ways paralleled Bassitt in terms of consistent, year-to-year results prior to his first full campaign in Toronto. If any of Bassitt, Kikuchi or White can turn in a strong showing this coming season, Toronto’s rotation could very well rank among the best and deepest in Major League Baseball.

Blue Jays Designate Anthony Kay For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have officially announced their signing of right-hander Chris Bassitt. To make room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Anthony Kay has been designated for assignment.

A first-round selection of the Mets in 2016, Kay was seen as a potential quick-to-the-majors starter based on the strength of his control. He underwent Tommy John surgery just a few months into his professional career, however, costing him the entire 2017 campaign. Kay returned with a new curveball to pair with his fastball-changeup combination, working his way to Triple-A by 2019.

Midway through that season, New York dealt him to the Blue Jays alongside Simeon Woods Richardson to land Marcus Stroman. Kay got to the big leagues briefly at the end of the year, making three appearances with Toronto. He’s appeared at the MLB level in each of the three subsequent seasons, though he’s yet to establish himself as a consistent presence on a big league staff.

Kay has made 28 MLB appearances, seven of which were starts. Over 70 2/3 innings, he owns a 5.48 ERA. Kay has averaged 94 MPH on his fastball and punched out a solid 23.5% of batters faced, but the plus control that was once his calling card has dipped. He’s walked nearly 12% of big league opponents, and the Jays have bounced him on and off the MLB roster the past few seasons.

Through parts of three Triple-A campaigns, the UCONN product owns a 6.02 ERA in 107 2/3 frames. He was limited to eight outings and 14 innings at that level this year, losing much of the season on the minor league injured list. Kay looked rusty in that stretch, surrendering 14 runs with 15 strikeouts and 11 walks.

Toronto will now have a week to trade Kay or place him on waivers. The 27-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining, so another team could stash him in Triple-A for a season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster. With between one and two years of MLB service, he won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Kiermaier

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Dec. 15: The Blue Jays have formally announced their one-year deal with Kiermaier. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the contract contains $750K of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster.

Dec. 14: Kiermaier’s contract is a one-year deal that comes with a $9MM guarantee, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

Between Kiermaier’s $9MM salary and the recent $21MM annual value on the Jays’ three-year deal with righty Chris Bassitt, the Jays now project to cross the luxury-tax threshold for the first time; Roster Resource pegs them at just over $234MM — a bit more than $1MM north of the $233MM cutoff point. Certainly there are ways for Toronto to duck back beneath the barrier if required — a trade of catcher Danny Jansen, for instance, would clear his projected $3.7MM salary and bring back help in other areas of need — but there’s no indication that ownership has placed given the front office any such mandates.

Dec. 10: The Blue Jays have an agreement in place with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The deal is pending a physical. It’ll be just the second team Kiermaier has played for, having spent ten big league seasons with the AL East rival Rays. He became a free agent for the first time after the Rays declined his $13MM team option for 2023. Kiermaier is represented by Equity Baseball.

Center field has been an area of need for the Blue Jays this winter, and they had previously been linked with Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

The 32-year-old appeared in 63 games for the Rays last season, slashing .228/.281/.369 with seven home runs over 221 plate appearances. He’s always been known for his stellar defense in center field, and while that’s declined a bit in recent seasons he was still worth two Defensive Runs Saved there in 2022. The offensive production amounted to a below average wRC+ of 90, but his defensive work meant he was still worth 1.1 fWAR.

Injuries played a big part in Kiermaier’s 2022 season, as he landed on the IL in June with left hip inflammation. He was activated July 1, but by July 10 he was back on the IL with the same problem, which ultimately ended his season early. He’d wind up having surgery in August to address the labrum issue in the left hip, but the expectation at the time was that he’d be ready for spring training.

Kiermaier is a three-time Gold Glove winner who’s been one of the best center fielders in all of baseball for the past decade. Since his first full year in 2014, Kiermaier has been worth 147 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Fielding Bible. That’s the best of all outfielders and second overall behind Andrelton Simmons (who had 1,400 more defensive innings).

Despite 2022 being the worst defensive year of his career, it was still above average and there’s every chance his hip problem played a significant part in that. After all, just a year ago he was worth 13 DRS in 894 2/3 center field innings. He still ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed and ranked well above league average in arm strength.

Offense has never been Kiermaier’s calling, and he owns a lifetime .248/.308/.407 line. That’s largely built off his early work, and since 2018 he’s put up a wRC+ of 79, 79, 94, 101 and then 90. There’s not a lot of power there (82 career home runs), and his strikeout rate has gradually ticked up to 27.6% in 2022 against a walk rate of 6.3%.

George Springer has been handling the bulk of the work in center field in recent seasons, but there’s been speculation that he’d move to a corner spot moving forward. The trade of Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners and this signing of Kiermaier seems to confirm that, and it looks likely the Jays will line up with Springer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corner spots with Kiermaier manning center.

This move may not be the last outfield addition either, and the team could look to add a fourth offensively-minded outfielder at some stage. Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet reports that the team has interest in both Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley. Signing either of those two would give the Jays a more flexible outfield group, and allow them to rotate options through the DH position as well depending on matchups, form and workload.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Johnny Cueto

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The Blue Jays made a notable addition to their rotation this week by signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, but they might not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the club is open to further additions and have shown recent interest in righty Johnny Cueto.

The club has four rotation spots now spoken for, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Bassitt all locked in as long as they’re healthy. The final spot in the rotation is a bit less concrete, however. The club signed lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal going into 2022 but saw him struggle badly, eventually getting bumped to the bullpen and finishing the year with a 5.19 ERA. Righty Mitch White had a 3.70 ERA with the Dodgers when the Jays acquired him at the deadline, but he posted a 7.74 ERA after the deal. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in June and won’t be an option until the second half of the season even in a best-case scenario. Nate Pearson was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but he’s been limited by various injuries to less than 50 innings in each of the past three seasons. Given all that uncertainty at the back end, it’s unsurprising that a win-now club like the Jays would be open to adding a stable veteran.

Cueto, 37 in February, surely fits the bill having pitched in each of the past 15 MLB seasons with a career 3.44 ERA. One of the best pitchers in baseball earlier in his career, he’s falling from those incredible heights but has proven himself to still be quite useful of late. He dealt with injuries and was barely able to pitch in 2018 and 2019, then struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, he’s had a solid return to form in each of the past two campaigns.

With the Giants in 2021, he tossed 114 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit shy of average, but his 6.1% walk rate was quite strong. He reached free agency after that campaign and lingered on the market after the lockout. He eventually signed a minor league deal with the White Sox in early April, though one that would pay him a prorated $4.2MM salary once in the majors. After getting built up to a starter’s workload, he made it back to the big leagues in May and eventually tossed 158 1/3 innings for the Pale Hose with a 3.35 ERA. Similar to the year before, he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, finishing with a 15.7% rate. However, his control was even better, as he walked just 5.1% of batters faced. He got grounders on 42.6% of balls in play and limited hard contact, coming in the 67th percentile in terms of hard hit percentage and 69th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.

Given Cueto’s age, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal but he should still earn a decent salary. He’s coming off a stronger platform than he was one year ago and the market for starting pitching has been quite strong overall this year. The free agent market still has a few surefire starters in Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard and Michael Wacha, but Cueto is one of the more attractive options outside of that group. Others include Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Drew Rucinski.

Notably, the Blue Jays are now positioned to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time in franchise history. The recent signings of Bassitt and Kevin Kiermaier have nudged the team just barely over the $233MM threshold, according to Roster Resource. It’s always possible that they could make a trade that puts them back under, but it seems possible the club is willing to stay over the line by season’s end. If that is indeed the case, then perhaps they are willing to spend a bit more to add Cueto or someone similar to their pitching staff. Nicholson-Smith relays that president Mark Shapiro recently said that the CBT is “not an obstacle” for ownership. “The support and the growth of that payroll is unprecedented in the history of the franchise and it continues to be very strong.”

It’s unclear how high they plan on taking the payroll, but they appear to be targeting areas other than the rotation. Nicholson-Smith reiterates their known interest in outfielders and adds that they have been showing interest in “high-upside relievers” even after acquiring Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade earlier this winter. No names are listed as specific targets, but some of the top relief names on the open market are Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Adam Ottavino and Michael Fulmer. Nicholson-Smith adds on Twitter that it’s possible the Jays are more likely to add in the bullpen than the rotation, despite the interest in Cueto.

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