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Pirates Trade Zach Thompson To Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Zach Thompson from the Pirates in exchange for minor league outfielder Chavez Young, per a team announcement. Toronto has designated right-hander Junior Fernández for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Thompson, who’ll provide the Jays with some further rotation depth. Thompson was designated for assignment by the Pirates last week.

Thompson, 29, was drafted by the White Sox back in 2014 but was never added to their roster and reached minor league free agency after 2020. He then signed a minor league deal with the Marlins just in time for his breakout campaign. He cracked Miami’s roster that year and ended up making 26 appearances, 14 of them starts. He tossed 75 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 21% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate.

After that nice surprise campaign, the Marlins sold high and flipped Thompson to the Pirates as part of the Jacob Stallings deal. Unfortunately, the move to Pittsburgh didn’t go well for Thompson, who was deployed in a swing role. He made 22 starts and seven relief appearances, posting a 5.18 ERA over 121 2/3 innings. He still got grounders at a solid 45.3% rate but his strikeout rate dipped to 16.6%. The Bucs designated him for assignment last week when they made their signing of Rich Hill official.

Despite that poor season, there’s little harm for the Jays in taking a flier on him. Thompson still has a full slate of options and can be kept in the minors until he’s needed. The Jays have four rotation spots spoken for, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos firmly entrenched. The fifth spot is a bit less certain, but they have plenty of options, including Yusei Kikuchi, Mitch White and Nate Pearson. Thompson will jump into that mix and give the club another layer of depth. He has between one and two years of MLB service time, meaning he still hasn’t reached arbitration and can be cheaply retained for the foreseeable future.

In order to get that extra pitching depth, the Jays are parting with Young. The 25-year-old will jump to a new organization for the first time, having spent his entire career in the Jays’ system until now. He was selected in the 39th round of the 2016 draft, drafted out of the Bahamas. Since then, he’s climbed his way up the minor league ladder, hitting well at each stop until he got to Triple-A. In 78 Double-A games in 2021, he hit .265/.350/.409 for a wRC+ of 109. In 65 Triple-A games last year, his production dropped to .234/.331/.350, 86 wRC+. He’ll look to take a step forward at the plate with his new team, but he provides a solid floor to the Bucs from his speed and defense regardless. He’s played all three outfield positions, including plenty of center field, and has stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past four minor league seasons.

The Jays are also relinquishing Fernández, whom they just grabbed on waivers from the Yankees last week. The right-hander has huge velocity but has yet to figure out how to properly harness it. He averaged 98.8 mph on his four-seamer this year and 98.7 mph on his sinker last year but struck out just 16.7% of batters faced while walking 14.3% of them. 2022 was his last option year and he’s become a popular target on waivers in recent months. After being designated for assignment by the Cardinals in September, he’s been claimed off waivers by the Pirates, Yankees and Blue Jays. The Jays will now have a week to trade him or put him back on waivers yet again.

MLBTR Poll: Blue Jays’ Fifth Starter

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Four of the Blue Jays’ five starting jobs are set. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman both had great seasons last year and will be back in 2023. José Berríos is coming off a disappointing season but has a strong track record and six years left on his extension, making him a lock on another spot. Chris Bassitt will also be in there after the club agreed to give him $63MM over three years this winter, in addition to surrendering a draft pick and international bonus space because Bassitt rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

The final spot is less certain, however, with a few potential options that could step up and take the job. Hyun Jin Ryu is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could be back around the All-Star break, though that’s still an estimate at this point. Someone will have to take the fifth spot for at least the first half. Even if Ryu does meet that timeline and comes back for the second half, it’s possible that an injury to one of the other pitchers creates a continued need for another arm. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the candidates.

Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi is probably considered the frontrunner for the fifth starter right now, just based on experience. After years of strong work in Japan, Kikuchi came over to North America by signing with the Mariners prior to 2019. He spent three years with Seattle, posting some intriguing but inconsistent results.

He reached free agency after 2021 and signed a three-year, $36MM deal with the Jays. He made 2o starts last year but got bumped to the bullpen after registering a 5.25 ERA in that time. He’d go on to toss 18 1/3 innings in the bullpen with a slightly better 4.91 ERA, though the underlying numbers were more encouraging. His 24.5% strikeout rate as a starter jumped up to an incredible 39.8% rate as a reliever, while his control also improved. He posted a 13.2% walk rate in the rotation but walked just 10.8% of batters faced out of the ’pen. A .371 batting average on balls in play as a reliever perhaps helped to push his ERA up, with his 4.15 FIP and 2.28 xFIP suggesting he deserved better, though it’s also possible he was just getting hit hard.

That’s a small sample size but it perhaps suggests there’s a chance Kikuchi has a nice floor as a left-handed reliever if he eventually gets pushed out of the rotation for good. However, it’s also possible he gets another chance to start since he’s the most experienced of this bunch, turning 32 in June. He can at least bring some velocity, as he averages around 95 mph on his fastball, one of the best such marks among left-handed starters in the game. But it doesn’t seem to be a challenge for big league hitters, as Kikuchi ranked in the first percentile last year in terms of barrel rate, hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He has a 5.02 ERA through 466 1/3 MLB innings at this point and will have to figure out a way to get better results. Even if he gets the fifth starter job out of Spring Training, he should have other guys on his heels throughout the season.

Mitch White

White, 28, was a second round pick of the Dodgers in 2016 and had been a well-regarded prospect in the years after that. He’s spent the past three years without a firm role, frequently being optioned to the minors and recalled to the majors as needed, making starts but also relief appearances.

In 2021, he made 21 appearances in the majors, including four starts. He tossed 46 2/3 innings with a 3.66 ERA, getting grounders at a 47.7% rate while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 8.6% of them. Things went even better in 43 2/3 innings in the minors, with White posting a 1.65 ERA, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate.

In the first few months of 2022, White only made a couple of Triple-A appearances, spending most of his time with the big league club. He made 10 starts and five relief appearances, logging 56 innings. He had a solid 3.70 ERA and 8% walk rate, though his strikeout rate dipped to 19.8%. The Blue Jays acquired him at the deadline but the switch didn’t help his results. He made 10 appearances for the Jays, including eight starts, and posted a 7.74 ERA in that time. His walk and ground ball rates stayed around average but his strikeout rate fell even further to 15.3%.

Despite that rough start to his Toronto tenure, there’s plenty to like in White overall. He was in the 79th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate, 77th in barrel rate and 63rd in average exit velocity. His .276 BABIP as a Dodger and .368 mark as a Blue Jay explain the different results somewhat. All of the advanced metrics liked his Toronto work much better than that huge ERA, including a 3.76 FIP, 4.68 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA. White is now out of options so the Jays will have to keep him in the bullpen as a long man if he doesn’t snag the rotation job, but he has five years of control remaining and should get some starting opportunities whenever the circumstances allow.

Nate Pearson

Pearson, 26, arguably has the most upside of anyone on this list. Selected by the Jays in the first round of the 2017 draft, he posted great results in the minors and shot up prospect rankings. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the game by the start of 2018 and he got as high as #7 in 2020.

Unfortunately, injuries have stalled Pearson out since then, as he hasn’t been able to throw 50 innings in any of the past three seasons. Elbow tightness limited him to 18 innings in 2020, plus two more in the postseason. The following year, he dealt with a groin strain and a shoulder impingement, then underwent surgery on a sports hernia at season’s end. Between the majors and minors, he tossed 45 2/3 innings on the year. In 2022, his early season ramp-up was delayed by mononucleosis and he then suffered a lat strain while rehabbing. He was only able to throw 15 1/3 innings in the minors, though he was healthy enough by the end of the year to play in the Dominican Winter League. He tossed 12 innings for Tigres del Licey without allowing an earned run, striking out 36.4% of batters faced.

The fact that Pearson finished the year healthy and dealing in winter ball is encouraging, but it’s hard to expect much from him in the immediate future. He might still be a big league starter someday, but after three straight seasons of injuries and scattered appearances, it’s probably unwise to expect him to suddenly jump to the range of 150 innings in 2023. When he was last healthy for an extended stretch, he pitched 101 2/3 minor league innings in 2019 with a 2.30 ERA, 30.7% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. The talent is clearly there but his workload capacity is an unanswered question.

Thomas Hatch

Hatch, 28, was a third round pick of the Cubs in 2016 but came to the Jays in a 2019 deadline deal that sent David Phelps to Chicago. Hatch had an encouraging major league debut in 2020, tossing 26 1/3 innings with a 2.73 ERA. However, the last couple of seasons have been a struggle, with Hatch posting middling results in the minors and only getting into four big league games between the two campaigns. In 2022, he made a single start for the Jays and allowed 10 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. In 131 Triple-A innings, he had a 4.67 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate and 44.1% ground ball rate. He’s still on the 40-man and has another option year left, but he’s likely just an emergency starting candidate unless he takes a step forward this year.

Bowden Francis

Francis, 27 in April, was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in 2017 but came to the Jays in the 2021 Rowdy Tellez trade. He was added to the Jays’ roster in November of that year to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Francis scuffled last year, despite a scoreless MLB debut that lasted 2/3 of an inning. He tossed 98 1/3 innings in the minors with a 6.59 ERA, getting outrighted off the roster in June.

However, Francis suited up for winter ball, joining Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico. That stint has gone extremely well for him, with Francis making nine starts with a 1.51 ERA over 35 2/3 innings. He’s struck out 47 of the 136 batters he’s faced for an excellent 34.6% rate. He’s still a long shot to earn a spot with the Jays since he’s no longer on the 40-man, but he could be an interesting wild card in this deck.

Yosver Zulueta

The Blue Jays picked up some extra international bonus pool money by trading Kendrys Morales and Dwight Smith Jr. and used that to sign Zulueta out of Cuba in June of 2019, just before the signing period which began in July of 2018 was set to conclude. At that time, Zulueta had already been clocked at 98 mph, per a report from Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Since then, Zulueta’s rise has been stalled by a couple of factors. He required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing and spent 2020 rehabbing. In 2021, he faced one batter before tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, wiping out the rest of that year. In 2022, finally healthy, Zulueta had a breakout year in the minors, going from Low-A to High-A to Double-A and then Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 innings, striking out 33.9% of batters faced while walking 12.9% of them.

At the end of the year, the Jays added Zulueta to the 40-man to protect him from selection in the Rule 5 draft and Baseball America ranked him the second-best prospect in the system, trailing only the pitcher below him in this article. Zulueta is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate solution for the Jays. After some extended injury time, he still needs to build up his workload and refine his command. But once he does, he has a triple-digit heater that headlines a four-pitch mix. He turns 25 his month and has a full slate of options, suggesting there will be no rush to push him into the big league rotation. But as the Jays recently showed with Manoah, they can be aggressive with young hurlers once the pitcher shows himself ready.

Ricky Tiedemann

Tiedemann, 20, was selected by the Jays in the third round of the 2021 draft. In 2022, he began the year in Low-A and then jumped to High-A and Double-A in his age-19 season. He tossed 78 2/3 innings over those three levels with a 2.17 ERA, striking out 38.9% of batters faced while walking 9.6% of them.

That performance led to him shooting up prospect rankings last year. As mentioned, BA now considers him the best prospect in the system, with Gabriel Moreno having been traded to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho deal. They also currently have him ranked the #28 prospect in the entire league, with MLB Pipeline similarly bullish by ranking him #33.

Like Zulueta, Tiedemann is probably more of a long-term play than an immediate option for the Jays. He’s still incredibly young and won’t be Rule 5 eligible until December of 2025. However, since he reached Double-A last year, there’s a chance he’ll be knocking on the door this year.

External Addition

It’s also possible that the Jays look outside the organization to find someone they like better than any of these options. The club has reportedly shown interest in Johnny Cueto, suggesting they could add a short-term veteran to take over and push everyone else down the depth chart. Cueto seems to have plenty of interest, with the Reds, Marlins and Padres among those who seem to be in the mix. If the Jays miss on him, some other remaining free agents include Michael Wacha, Zack Greinke, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer. If the Jays are willing to swing another trade, the Marlins have plenty of arms available, the Mariners seem to have some openness to dealing Chris Flexen, while the Brewers seem stacked in the rotation and could consider trading someone like Adrian Houser.

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What do you think? Which of these guys will make the most starts for the Jays in 2023? Have your say in the poll below!

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Blue Jays Announce Five Minor League Deals

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The Blue Jays today announced five minor league deals, including the previously reported deals for right-handers Julian Fernández and Casey Lawrence. The other three are right-hander Drew Hutchison, lefty Paul Fry and catcher Rob Brantly. All five will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.

Hutchison, 32, returns to the organization that drafted him in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors in 2012 and had some success with the Jays, including a 2014 season where he made 32 starts with a 4.48 ERA. Unfortunately, his performance dipped in subsequent years and he was traded to the Pirates in 2016. He’s gone into journeyman mode since that time, also suiting up for the Phillies, Rangers and Tigers. With Detroit in 2022, made 18 starts and 10 relief appearances, posting an ERA of 4.53 over 105 1/3 innings. His 14.7% strikeout rate was well below par, but his 9.1% walk rate and 40.3% ground ball rate were close to league average. He’ll give the Blue Jays some veteran rotation depth in the minors, should injuries create a need during the season.

Fry, 30, seemed to have a breakout in 2020. He made 22 appearances for the Orioles that year with a 2.45 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 57.6% ground ball rate. His 9.2% walk rate was a tad high, but it was a few ticks better than the 11.4% rate he posted the year before. Unfortunately, his improved control slipped from his grasp over the next two seasons. In 2021, his walk rate shot up to 16.3%, pushing his ERA to 6.08 in the process. His 2022 was similar, with a 14.8% walk rate and 6.23 ERA, a year that included a trade to the Diamondbacks, who outrighted him in August.

Assuming Yusei Kikuchi is in the club’s rotation, then Tim Mayza and Matt Gage are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man. If Fry can improve his command at all, he still has a couple of option years remaining and between three and four years of MLB service time. If he earns his way back on the 40-man, he could be retained for future seasons via arbitration.

Brantly, 33, is a journeyman catcher who has spent time in the big leagues with the Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, Giants and Yankees. Though he’s played in parts of eight MLB seasons, he’s gotten into just 135 big league games and made just 456 plate appearances. He has a .225/.287/.326 batting line for his career for a wRC+ of 68. He’s made it to the bigs in each of the past four seasons but didn’t get into more than six games in any of them. The Jays have Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk to handle the big league catching duties but traded Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho trade. Varsho himself has plenty of catching experience but seems ticketed for outfield work for the Jays. Brantly gives the club a veteran depth option to have on hand in the minors.

Blue Jays Claim Junior Fernández From Yankees

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The Blue Jays have claimed right-hander Junior Fernández off waivers from the Yankees, according to announcements from both clubs. Fernandez had been designated for assignment last month.

Fernandez, 26 in March, has spent most of his career as a Cardinal thus far, making his major league debut with them in 2019. He struggled to a 6.62 ERA over 34 appearances in the 2019-2021 stretch, striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in that time while walking 13.8% of them. His results in 2022 were a bit better, as he posted a 2.93 ERA with the Cards, but still only punching out 17.1% of batters and giving free passes to 11.4% of them.

2022 was the last option year for Fernandez, meaning he could no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors going forward. Coupled with the disappointing results, that seemed to bump him out of the plans in St. Louis, as they designated him for assignment in September. The Pirates claimed him and put him into three games down the stretch before sending him into DFA limbo again.

Despite the tepid results, there are reasons that the Yankees claimed him from the Pirates in November and the Jays have now claimed him from the Yanks. He averaged 98.8 mph on his four-seamer this year and 98.7 mph on his sinker. Per Statcast, that puts his velocity in the 98th percentile among qualified pitchers. He’s been better at getting punchouts in the minors but without improved results overall. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 58 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.22 ERA, despite striking out 27.1% of batters faced. His control issues have also been present in the minors, as he walked 10.4% of Triple-A hitters faced in that two-year span.

The Jays seem to be willing to take a shot on the high-octane stuff and will see if they can find a way to harness it. If they succeed in that regard, they can retain Fernández for the foreseeable future, since he’s yet to crack the two-year mark in terms of major league service time.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Casey Lawrence To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Casey Lawrence to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Lawrence, 35, was also signed to a minor league deal by the Jays for some pitching depth in 2022. He eventually had his contract selected and threw 18 innings over six appearances but posted a 7.50 ERA in that time. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where things went much better. Over 23 starts and 126 innings for the Bisons, he had a 2.79 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. He was outrighted off the roster in November but is now back in the organization without taking up a roster spot.

For the Jays, their rotation currently projects to feature Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos in the first four spots, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White candidates for the fifth. By adding Lawrence on a minor league pact, they’ve added another depth option to join Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Yosver Zulueta and Bowden Francis.

Lawrence is now out of options and can no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors if he makes his way back onto the 40-man. He has just over one year of service time, meaning that he could be retained cheaply for the foreseeable future if earns and continues to hang onto a roster spot.

Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

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The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

Blue Jays, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays are signing reliever Julian Fernández to a minor league contract, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). He’ll add some hard-throwing bullpen depth to the upper minors.

Fernández has over two years of major league service, but virtually all of that was spent on the injured list. The Giants took the righty out of the Rockies organization in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. He suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery before he could throw a pitch for San Francisco and spent the entire following season on the MLB injured list. The Marlins claimed him off waivers the next offseason but he spent the entire 2019 campaign on the IL as well thanks to continued elbow issues.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Miami relinquished his Rule 5 rights. That sent him back to his original organization, the Rockies, without requiring a 40-man roster spot. Fernández had racked up two years of MLB service without appearing in a game, but he finally got his first real opportunity late in the 2021 season. Colorado selected him onto their 40-man roster as a September call-up. He allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 innings over six outings, struggling with his control but averaging a blistering 99 MPH on a fastball that maxed out just shy of 101.

Fernández held his roster spot with Colorado last winter but spent the first few months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. He struggled and was designated for assignment in mid-June. He cleared outright waivers and stuck with the Isotopes for the entire season, tallying 57 innings across 58 appearances. The Dominican-born hurler allowed a 6.63 ERA in that extremely hitter-friendly league, serving up a staggering 2.37 home runs per nine innings. He struck out 24.9% of opponents on an impressive 13.6% swinging strike percentage, but the longball and a 12.3% walk rate proved too problematic for him to get back to the majors.

After qualifying for minor league free agency at season’s end, Fernández finds a new opportunity in Toronto. His arm strength is surely intriguing for the Jays pitching development staff even as his minor league performance track record has been inconsistent. The 27-year-old still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he cracks Toronto’s 40-man at any point, he can bounce between Rogers Centre and Triple-A Buffalo freely for the next couple seasons.

Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

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The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Hyun-Jin Ryu Targeting July Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Hyun Jin Ryu saw his 2022 season cut short in mid-June, when a second bout of forearm soreness necessitated Tommy John surgery. Now more than six months removed from that procedure, the former All-Star is on track in his recovery.

Speaking with reporters in his home country of South Korea, Ryu said his rehab process remains on schedule (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The veteran starter indicated he hopes he can return to the Jays in July, roughly 13 months after going under the knife. All-Star festivities are scheduled for July 9-13, but a return early in the season’s unofficial second half seems like a rough target date as things stand.

Of course, that’s contingent on future steps in his rehab. Any kind of setback or delay once Ryu returns to throwing could push back that timetable. If all goes well, however, it’s possible he’ll play a role on the Toronto pitching staff for what the team hopes to be another postseason run.

Ryu made just six starts in 2022, allowing a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings. Forearm inflammation cost him a month between April and May and he suffered the setback that required surgery just four starts after his return from that IL stint. Through his first two seasons north of the border, the former ERA leader had a decent amount of success. He posted a 2.69 ERA across 12 starts during the truncated 2020 campaign, securing a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting as a result. His 4.37 ERA in 2021 marked a notable step back, but he stayed healthy enough to soak up 169 innings through 31 starts that year.

Toronto has an excellent top of the rotation, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman backed up by offseason signee Chris Bassitt. The Jays are hoping for a bounceback year from José Berríos, who had a disappointing first full season in Toronto but was an above-average pitcher between 2017-21. The fifth spot is up in the air, with neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Mitch White seizing the job. Former top prospect Nate Pearson remains on hand but pitched just 15 1/3 minor league innings in 2022 due to mononucleosis and a lat strain.

Ryu is headed into the final season of the four-year free agent deal he inked during the 2019-20 offseason. He’ll make $20MM before hitting the open market again at the end of the year. Getting back onto the mound and demonstrating his health with a handful of late-season starts would be a nice boost to his stock heading into the 2023-24 offseason.

GMs Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen Share Details On Blue Jays/Diamondbacks Trade

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After months of speculation and interest from multiple teams, the Diamondbacks finally traded one of their left-handed hitting outfielders and the Blue Jays finally moved one of their catchers.  The two clubs joined forces on Friday’s three-player deal that saw outfielder Daulton Varsho head to Toronto in exchange for catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in a trade that checks several boxes for both organizations.

Given how the D’Backs and Jays’ needs dovetailed so neatly, it isn’t a surprise that Toronto GM Ross Atkins said it was “from the very beginning of the off-season that dialogue began” between the two sides.

“It absolutely was a great fit with their surplus of outfielders, specifically left-handed hitting centre fielders and us having a surplus of catching and their need,” Atkins told reporters, including TSN’s Scott Mitchell. “Right from the start, we felt that was going to be a very important team and fit.”

The Blue Jays entered the winter with Moreno, Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen all lined up as options behind the plate, with Moreno (one of the game’s best prospects) looking ready for an extended audition after making his MLB debut with 25 games played in 2022.  While Varsho has only 283 MLB games on his resume, he was actually the most experienced of Arizona’s outfield core — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas both made their big league debuts in 2022, and Jake McCarthy has appeared in 123 games for the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons.

Varsho’s longer track record seemingly made him the most sought-after player by interested teams, especially since the D’Backs made Carroll (another elite prospect) all but untouchable in trade negotiations.  With the Diamondbacks intent on adding “impact in this trade,” according to Arizona general manager Mike Hazen, that need couldn’t be met just by shopping Thomas or McCarthy.

“I think there was more certainty — and clearly, we have it, too — with Daulton’s performance to this point in his career, and probably rightly so, that teams were willing to pay more for that.  I don’t know that we were ever going to cross that divide otherwise,” Hazen told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters.

Such teams as the Yankees, Reds, White Sox, Athletics, Astros, Brewers, and Marlins were also linked to the Diamondbacks’ outfielders on the rumor mill, as both contenders and rebuilding teams alike had interest in Arizona’s mix of controllable young players.  Likewise, Toronto got lots of calls about its catchers, but reports suggested that the Blue Jays first wanted to wait and see where some other catchers on the free agent and trade market landed.  Once the Braves acquired Sean Murphy from Oakland and once Willson Contreras (Cardinals) and Christian Vazquez (Twins) signed, the road was then a little more clear for the D’Backs and Jays to align on a trade.

Even then, Atkins said that finding a match was tricky since “all three catchers were of some interest to them and all of their outfielders were of some interest to us.  The component that made it challenging is that we were both trying to consolidate more talent on our Major League roster.  They are looking to take steps forward obviously and push the envelope on the winning front and that’s why Lourdes Gurriel came into the picture and made this deal work.”

Gurriel’s inclusion gives the D’Backs a veteran but not old (Gurriel is entering his age-29) outfield presence to join with Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas, and former AL Rookie Of The Year Kyle Lewis, who was acquired in another trade with the Mariners earlier this winter.  “I’m hoping the contact, the on-base, the ability to hit, the two-strike approach, is going to lend itself to making our lineup even tougher to face with the way some of those kids are going to be running around the bases the way they did last year,” Hazen said.  “I feel like a lot of that dynamic offense has a chance to be enhanced.”

The trade with the Jays and Mariners represent Arizona’s biggest moves of the winter, as the D’Backs have otherwise mostly focused on their bullpen with relatively lower-tier moves like the signings of Miguel Castro and Scott McGough.  Friday also saw the D’Backs complete another trade, bringing Diego Castillo from the Pirates to add more infield depth to the mix.

With Arizona still trying to finds its footing after three straight losing seasons, the Blue Jays are in a different position as a club intending to compete for a World Series in 2023.  After a disappointing collapse against Seattle in the Wild Card Series, the Jays have been aggressive in signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal, signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year contract, and trading Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko.

Now that the Jays finally pulled the trigger on a catcher trade, Atkins said “I think our heavy lifting is done” for the rest of the offseason, though the front office is “certainly not ruling anything out and would expect some incremental improvements.”  Varsho and Kiermaier are both left-handed hitters, and thus the Blue Jays will “look to improve our team from the subtraction of Gurriel, but in our view it doesn’t need to be right-handed or left-handed, it’s more about the impact and the fit beyond that.”

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