The Orioles announced that they have signed outfielder Dylan Carlson to a one-year deal. The ALIGND Sports Agency client will reportedly make $975K with a $25K bonus for getting to 200 plate appearances. Infielder Jacob Amaya has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Carlson, 26, has seen his stock slide in recent years. That includes a very rough showing in 2024. Between the Cardinals and Rays last year, he stepped to the plate 265 times but struck out in 28.3% of those appearances and hit just .209/.287/.277 for a wRC+ of 67. The Rays could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2.7MM salary, but they non-tendered him instead.
It’s been a steep drop from a few years ago. Carlson was selected by the Cardinals with the 33rd overall pick in 2016 and he performed well in his first professional games. Baseball America ranked him as one of the ten best prospects in the entire league in both 2020 and 2021.
In the latter of those two years, he seemed to be on his way to delivering on that prospect hype. He got into 149 games for the Cards in 2021, hitting 18 home runs and slashing .266/.343/.437 for a 111 wRC+. He also got some decent marks for his glovework, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 2.4 wins above replacement on the year. Since he was only 22 years old at the time, it would have been fair to consider that just the beginning.
Unfortunately, his production has trended down since then, perhaps due to a lack of health. A left hamstring strain sent him to the injured list, followed by a later stint for a left thumb sprain. He played 128 games with a .236/.316/.380 line and 98 wRC+. In 2023, left ankle issues were the culprit, sending him to the IL multiple times and eventually requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 for a wRC+ of 84, getting into just 76 games. In 2024, a left AC joint sprain put him on the IL to start the year. As mentioned earlier, he went on to have a poor season and got sent to free agency.
For the O’s, they probably aren’t expecting much out of Carlson except to fill a fourth outfielder role. They have Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser likely to be their regular trio on the grass. Even if someone in that group gets hurt, they have Heston Kjerstad as an option to step up. He still has options remaining and could perhaps be ticketed for everyday at-bats in Triple-A until he’s needed in the majors. The designated hitter slot will probably be shared by first basemen Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn.
That will likely leave Carlson and Daz Cameron in bench/depth roles. Carlson has played all three outfield spots in his career, with mixed reviews. Defensive Runs Saved considers him to have been slightly above average on the whole, though Outs Above Average has him a bit below par.
Based on his past prospect pedigree, there’s theoretically some upside there since Carlson is still young, though he will need to stay healthy and find a path to some regular playing time. If that comes to pass, Carlson can be retained for 2026 via arbitration. He also has a full slate of options, so it’s possible the O’s send him to the minors to try and get him back on track that way. His service time is at four years and 104 days, putting him 68 days of the five-year mark. Once he gets to that line, he can’t be optioned without his consent.
Amaya, 26, was just claimed off waivers earlier this month. The O’s have a penchant for grabbing guys off the wire and then trying to pass them through at a later date, so it’s not especially surprising to see that happen here.
The young infielder is considered to be stronger as a fielder than as a hitter. He has plenty of experience with the middle infield positions, as well as some time at third base, generally impressing prospect evaluators. He has hit .182/.222/.195 in 81 major league plate appearances. That’s a tiny sample size but his minor league work has also been subpar. Over the past two years, he stepped to the plate 868 times on the farm and hit .241/.332/.379 for a wRC+ of 80.
He exhausted his final option in 2024. As his out-of-options status was nearing, he started to bounce around the league. He was designated for assignment by the Marlins in March and traded to the Astros. Houston put him on waivers in August, which led the White Sox to make a claim, though they subsequently lost him to the O’s this month.
Amaya heads back to DFA limbo and will know his fate within a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so any possibility of a trade would need to be explored in the next five days. Based on his past few DFAs, he’s probably headed for the waiver wire again in the coming days. If he clears this time, the O’s will retain him as some infield depth but without him taking up a roster spot.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the financial terms.
Ogasawara, 27, pitched in part of nine seasons for Dragons. He threw 951 1/3 innings, allowing 3.62 earned runs per nine. He struck out 18.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 7.7% clip.
The $21MM in deferred money in the deal could lower the contract’s net present value below this tier of elite closer, but it’s hard to deny that Scott belongs in that elite company based on his incredible numbers the past two seasons. He was among the very best relievers in the sport last year with a 1.75 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 28.6% strikeout rate. His peripheral numbers were even stronger in 2023, as he struck out an eye-popping 33.9% of opponents and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Among qualified relievers over the past two seasons, Scott ranks fourth in ERA and fifth in FIP. Only 