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Notable 2016 Non-Tenders

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Yesterday was the deadline for teams to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players, and they cut loose a number of intriguing players, adding to the free agent market at a number of key positions. Here’s a look at the most important non-tenders.

  • Tyson Ross, Padres. San Diego cut Ross and five other players loose on Friday, adding a big name to a thin starting pitching market. Ross missed most of the 2016 season due to injury and had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October, which figured to require a four- to six-month recovery period. He also wouldn’t have been cheap for 2017, making a projected $9.6MM. Nonetheless, Ross would be an interesting free agent even if there weren’t so little good starting pitching available. In 2015, he pitched 196 innings, with a 3.26 ERA, 3.9 BB/9 and an outstanding 9.7 K/9. He also has a career 56% ground ball rate.
  • Chris Carter, Brewers. Milwaukee designated their first baseman for assignment last week, then officially non-tendered him yesterday. It isn’t typical to see a home run champ non-tendered, but Carter’s consistently high strikeout totals, consistently low batting average and lack of defensive value made him a tricky case, especially since those factors would have been weighted less heavily by the arbitration process than his gaudy home-run totals. We examined the Brewers’ case for non-tendering Carter back in October.
  • Welington Castillo and Rubby De La Rosa, Diamondbacks. That the Snakes would non-tender a consistently productive starting catcher like Castillo rated as one of the tender deadline’s bigger surprises. Castillo batted a fine .264/.322/.423 in 2016 and looks like a strong addition to a rather thin free agent market for backstops. De La Rosa, too, is worth watching this winter — health concerns surely played a role in the Diamondbacks’ decision to cut him loose, and Tommy John surgery could be a possibility at some point after his recent stem cell treatment on his elbow. but De La Rosa’s blistering fastball, solid ground-ball ability and 9.6 K/9 in 2016 make him an intriguing free agent, particularly if teams are optimistic about his health.
  • Ben Revere, Nationals. Washington’s decision to non-tender Revere (who we projected would make $6.3MM through the arbitration process this winter) came as no surprise after he hit just .217/.260/.300 while struggling with an oblique injury in 2016. Still, Revere had batted at least .294 in each of the four previous seasons, stealing 142 bases in that span. He’s also just 28. Teams interested in outfield help could, therefore, view him as a candidate to contribute next season.
  • Seth Maness, Cardinals. St. Louis’ decision to non-tender Maness was surely due in large part to his health, as he had UCL surgery in August. He was, however, consistently productive as a sort of ground ball specialist in parts of four seasons with the Cardinals, producing a lifetime 3.19 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 59.4 GB%. The Cards portray their decision to non-tender him as mostly a roster issue, as the addition of John Gant in the recent Jaime Garcia trade gave them additional bullpen help, and rookie Matt Bowman emerged in 2016 as a ground ball specialist in his own right.
  • Jeff Manship, Indians. The 31-year-old righty produced an 0.92 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 for Cleveland in a terrific 2015 season and helped again in 2016, with a 3.12 ERA. He had long pitched mostly in the minor leagues before that, though, and his 4.6 BB/9 last season didn’t portend a high degree of future success.
  • Vance Worley, Orioles. Worley’s teams seemingly continue to view him as a marginal player even as he remains consistently useful. In 2016, pitched 86 2/3 innings for Baltimore, generally pitching out of the bullpen but also making four starts. He produced a 3.53 ERA and a 48.1% ground ball rate, although his peripherals (5.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9) headed in the wrong direction. He still looks like a credible long reliever, though, and his ability to start also helps.
  • Jeff Locke, Pirates. The Bucs’ decision to part ways with Locke was likely an easy one after he produced a miseable 5.44 ERA, 5.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 2016, ultimately losing his job in the rotation. Still, Locke has logged at least 127 1/3 innings in each of the last four seasons and could help a team in search of rotation depth this winter.

Nationals, Pirates Still Discussing Andrew McCutchen Scenarios

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The Nationals and Pirates re continuing to discuss “a lot of different angles” that would result in outfielder Andrew McCutchen landing in D.C., according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (via Twitter). He notes that the information came from a source in the Pittsburgh organization.

There had been some suggestion that the Nats wanted to make a move on McCutchen before this evening’s non-tender deadline. The idea, it seems, was that the club would non-tender shortstop Danny Espinosa if it added McCutchen, which would free Trea Turner to move back into the infield.

As it turned out, nothing is yet done and Washington tendered Espinosa. That apparently isn’t posing much of an obstacle to continued exploration of a deal involving McCutchen. It’s worth bearing in mind that even tendered players aren’t guaranteed their full contracts until late in the spring. And Espinosa would likely be a plausible trade candidate if D.C. decided to part ways.

Regarding the fact that there are still many different scenarios at play, that’s perhaps not surprising. All indications are that the Bucs wish to obtain premium young talent in any trade involving McCutchen. We’ve heard top Nats prospect Victor Robles mentioned quite a bit, along with a variety of the club’s quality, youthful starting pitching. From the perspective of the Nationals, though, giving up even Robles seems like a big ask given McCutchen’s struggles in this past season. It seems possible that the organizations are working on ways to balance out the value — perhaps, even involving other teams — to facilitate a mutually agreeable swap, though it’s all guesswork at this point.

Nationals Non-Tender Ben Revere

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  • As expected, outfielder Ben Revere has been non-tendered by the Nationals. (The non-tender was first reported by the TalkNats blog on Twitter.) The club’s other eligible players — including shortstop Danny Espinosa — have been offered contracts. Revere projected to earn $6.3MM despite an abysmal 2016 campaign, his first in D.C. The 28-year-old still offers speed and defense, but will need to improve quite a bit upon his .217/.260/.300 slash. He has been a near-average bat in prior years, so there’s reason for some optimism, but at that rate it proved too costly.

Nationals Acquire Derek Norris

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The Nationals have dealt for catcher Derek Norris from the Padres, per a club announcement. Righty Pedro Avila will head to San Diego in return.

It’s a homecoming of sorts for Norris, who was once a well-regarded prospect in the D.C. system before being shipped to Oakland in the deal that landed Gio Gonzalez. Now, he joins righty A.J. Cole in finding his way back to the Nationals organization via trade.

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Norris never suited up at the major league level with the Nationals, but he’ll surely do so in 2017. The organization was looking for a replacement for Wilson Ramos to pair with incumbent reserves Jose Lobaton and Pedro Severino. Odds are that the organization is planning some form of timeshare, presumably featuring Norris against left-handed pitching while Lobaton (a switch-hitter) gets the bulk of his time against righties. Severino still has options and will likely begin the year at Triple-A.

Washington will obviously tender Norris a contract, and can expect to pay him in the neighborhood of a projected $4.0MM arbitration salary. He can be controlled for one more season via the arbitration process.

The move almost certainly spells the end of Ramos’s tenure in D.C. In conjunction with the new deal just given to Lobaton, it likely also means that the Nats won’t chase free agent Matt Wieters or an alternative option behind the dish.

In Norris, the Nationals are taking a gamble on a return to form offensively. The 27-year-old posted an anemic .186/.255/.328 batting line over 458 plate appearances last year for San Diego, though he did manage to tie a career high with 14 home runs. But he was a near-average hitter in the season prior, and carried a strong 115 OPS+ in the 2013-14 seasons with the Athletics. As we noted in reviewing the organization’s offseason outlook, Norris seemed a reasonable candidate to roll the dice on given this year’s weak crop of available receivers.

The concern with Norris isn’t so much that he had a rough year — after all, his .238 BABIP figures to improve — but that his approach has eroded rather drastically. In his heyday with the A’s, Norris drew walks at about a 12% clip while striking out in around a fifth of his plate appearances. Both numbers have moved in the wrong direction in San Diego, though; last year, he posted a 7.9% walk rate (improving upon his 6.3% from the year prior) and jumped up to a 30.3% strikeout rate. Norris is both chasing pitches out of the zone and swinging and missing far more often than he had previously. Despite the anemic BABIP last year, he did post a career-best 34.4% hard-hit ratio and put the ball on a line as much (21.9%) as he ever had previously.

While the Nationals would surely love to see improvement with the bat, that’s not the only basis for the move. Norris has turned into one of the game’s better pitch framers (2016; 2015) after previously rating poorly in that area. And he rates as approximately average in other defensive areas. Plus, Norris can add some value with his legs, as he swiped nine bags last year and made an above-average overall baserunning contribution.

For the Padres, parting with Norris opens the door for top prospect Austin Hedges behind the dish. Though Christian Bethancourt remains on hand as a reserve, he has been dabbling in the idea of becoming a part-time pitcher, and certainly does not profile as anything like a regular.

The Friars also add an interesting arm in the 19-year-old Avila. A native of Venezuela, he has shown some swing-and-miss ability in the lower minors. At the low-A level in 2016, Avila ran up a solid 3.48 ERA over 93 frames across twenty starts, with 8.9 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. As Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser writes, the young righty has a slight frame and lacks a huge heater, but makes up for that with a solid three-pitch mix and “an excellent feel to pitch.” He did end the year with an injury of some kind, the details of which remain unknown.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Nationals' Pursuit Of Center Fielder, Mark Melancon

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  • Despite the ongoing interest in McCutchen, the Nationals are also looking into other outfielders, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports. Among the free agent center fielders who have at least come up internally are Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez and former Nats shortstop Ian Desmond. The organization has also given some thought to Adam Eaton of the White Sox. That’s doubly interesting given that the Nats are reportedly still engaged on star Chicago southpaw Chris Sale.
  • While the Nationals are trying to work out arrangements to land McCutchen (or an alternative) and/or Sale, they remain in on closer Mark Melancon, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Melancon’s market is moving along well, says Crasnick, with expectations that he could land as much as $60MM over a four-year term. While Washington is clearly intrigued at a reunion, Crasnick adds that the Giants remain engaged and may even be better-situated for a strike on Melancon given that the Nats’ attention may lie elsewhere.

While much of the trade chatter on Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen has focused on the Nationals, the Dodgers are also a plausible suitor, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. There’s interest from Los Angeles in the 30-year-old, not least of which because he’s controllable at a fairly reasonable salary and doesn’t come with a lengthy commitment.

Nationals, Pirates Accelerating Talks On Andrew McCutchen

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DEC. 2: Talks between the Nationals and Pirates have continued into the morning, tweets Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The Pirates have been breaking down video footage of Nationals prospects this morning, he adds. The Nats remained “in the lead” for McCutchen as of late last night, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter), though Morosi notes that the Rangers have been in contact with the Pirates about McCutchen as well.

DEC. 1: The Nationals and Pirates have “ramped up” their negotiations on a possible deal involving star center fielder Andrew McCutchen, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports. There are indications that the Nats would like to wrap up an agreement today; it seems the club may well non-tender shortstop Danny Espinosa if it adds McCutchen.

The connection between McCutchen and Espinosa involves Trea Turner, who could play either center or short. If Washington adds a new option in the outfield, Turner would surely move to his accustomed shortstop position, and the Nats would apparently not be interested in retaining Espinosa at a projected $5.3MM salary. (He could, of course, be traded.)

We’ve heard some chatter about possible pieces involved between these clubs, which reportedly explored a deal over the summer but couldn’t quite reach an agreement. The Bucs are said to be eyeing top outfield prospect Victor Robles, but it remains unclear whether the Nationals have any willingness to part with him. Stark notes that young, MLB-level pitchers such as Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez would hold appeal to Pittsburgh as well, and both (along with several other possibilities) certainly could be in play.

The Nationals would presumably utilize McCutchen in center, where he has long played in Pittsburgh. There were newfound questions about his ability to stick there after metrics panned his work in 2016, though perhaps Washington would only need to commit to him in center for a single season. Still, McCutchen isn’t quite as appealing an asset in a corner position, particularly given the risk that he doesn’t bounce back after a .256/.336/.430 year at the plate.

McCutchen also isn’t particularly cheap. With $14MM coming to him next season and a $14.5MM option for 2018, he’s hardly expensive. And that’s a pittance if he can return to his former superstar form. Having just turned 30, McCutchen represents a reasonable risk for a high-spending contender like the Nationals, though just how much willingness the team has to part with major young assets to take that chance remains to be seen.

Nats Remain In Mix For Sale, Unwilling To Part With Turner

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The Nationals, Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and Braves are at the forefront of the Chris Sale market, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman in his latest notes column. However, an exec with one of those clubs that spoke to Heyman still said he’s not sure that Sale is moved at all due to the exorbitant nature of the White Sox’ asking price. The Nationals, for instance, have been asked for Trea Turner as part of the package but have balked at the idea, Heyman notes, with one Washington source calling the budding star “too valuable” to part with. It’s similarly difficult to envision a player like Alex Bregman or Dansby Swanson being moved for Sale as well. The White Sox do like Dodgers prospect Cody Bellinger, writes Heyman, but L.A. has yet to show a significant inclination to pursue Sale, he adds. (And, from my vantage point, the Dodgers would need to add quite a bit more than Bellinger to a Sale package anyhow.)

Chapman Too Expensive For Nats?

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  • The Nationals are still looking for a closer, tweets Heyman, but it’s likely that they consider Aroldis Chapman to be too expensive. The Nats are interested in a reunion with Mark Melancon, however, he notes, adding that Washington “loved” Melancon’s clubhouse presence in his short stint with the team following a trade-deadline rental this past summer.

Nationals, Jose Lobaton Avoid Arbitration

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4:43pm: Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that Lobaton will earn $1.575MM next season (Twitter link). He’ll also earn an additional $25K if he reaches 200 plate appearances, according to Janes’ colleague, Jorge Castillo (also on Twitter).

4:23pm: The Nationals announced today that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with catcher Jose Lobaton, thus avoiding arbitration. Terms of the agreement weren’t announced, but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the Athletes X client would receive a $1.6MM salary in 2017.

The 32-year-old switch-hitter served as the primary backup to Wilson Ramos in Washington this patch season, batting .232/.319/.374 with three home runs in 114 plate appearances. Those numbers are fairly in line with the production that Lobaton has posted since he established himself as a regular member of the Rays’ roster back in 2012. In 1007 plate appearances since that time, he’s batted .231/.307/.340. Lobaton halted 28 percent of attempted stolen bases last year and delivered his typically above-average framing marks along the way. This will be his final trip through the arbitration process, as he’ll be a free agent for the first time in his career next winter after reaching six years of Major League service time.

Nationals Among Teams Primed To Act With CBA In Place

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With the CBA now in place, teams and players that were waiting for clarity can move toward new agreements. While plenty of organizations have gone right ahead with their plans, others seemingly have waited. That includes the Yankees (per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, on Twitter), Nationals (per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, on Twitter), and perhaps also the Red Sox (via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, in a tweet). Whether we’re in for a rush of moves remains to be seen, but the stage is set.

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