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Pedro Strop On Cubs’ Interest In Free Agency

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This past offseason was not one to remember for the Cubs, a big-market, high-payroll team that spent a mere $3.5MM on free agents after failing to make the playoffs in 2019. The club also lost quite a few of its own notable free agents, including reliever Pedro Strop, even though the right-hander revealed Wednesday that Chicago had interest in retaining him.

“They did try hard to bring me back. It’s just money-wise, they couldn’t, because they weren’t allowed [with] all the salary cap stuff; they wanted to try to stay below,” Strop said (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).

The 34-year-old Strop, a Cub from 2013-19, ended up with the National League Central rival Reds on a modest single-season pact worth $1.825MM. The Cubs weren’t even willing to go to those lengths for Strop, however, thanks in part to their desire to stay under the luxury tax (not the nonexistent salary cap) this year. They were one of three teams that had to pay the tax in 2019, when they were forced to fork over a $7.6MM bill. The threshold then was $206MM, but it has climbed to $208MM for 2020. Although they spent next to nothing over the winter, the Cubs project to start this season about $6MM over that mark, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

Should the tax really be a concern for the deep-pocketed Cubs? Arguably not. Regardless, there’s a case that the Cubs won’t get hurt by letting Strop walk, even though a divisional foe grabbed him for a relatively inexpensive guarantee. Strop was an excellent late-game option for a large portion of his tenure in Chicago, but he took noticeable steps backward last year. For example, Strop posted the worst full-season run prevention marks of his career (4.97 ERA/4.53 FIP) and one of his highest walk rates (4.32 per nine) across 41 2/3 innings. Furthermore, after averaging more than 95 mph on his fastball in each of his prior seasons as a Cub, his mean velocity dropped to 93.7 in 2019. A Strop rebound remains possible, though, and the Cubs are left to hope he doesn’t return to his old form for a Reds team that bought low on him.

Cubs Targeted Dinelson Lamet, Others In Previous Kris Bryant Talks With Padres

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The Cubs and Padres discussed various scenarios involving third baseman Kris Bryant but were (obviously) unable to come to an agreement, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune reports. Specifically, the Cubs showed interest in right-hander Dinelson Lamet. Catching prospect Luis Campusano was also a potential target.

It’s hardly a shock to see the pitching-needy Cubs pursuing a controllable big league arm like Lamet. The 27-year-old returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019 and gave the Padres 73 innings (14 starts) of 4.07 ERA ball with a massive 13.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9 and 1.48 HR/9. Lamet averaged 96.1 mph on his heater and posted a gaudy 14 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to high-end spin rates on his heater and breaking ball.

Beyond Lamet’s ability to miss bats, he’s controlled for four seasons, which surely holds appeal considering the Cubs could see both Jon Lester and Jose Quintana hit free agency next winter. His fit on the 2020 club would be clear as well; currently, the Cubs’ hope is that Tyler Chatwood can hold down the fifth starter’s role — a task that he hasn’t been up to in either of the first two seasons of his ill-fated three-year, $38MM deal. Installing Lamet as a fifth option behind Lester, Quintana, Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks would’ve been considered an upgrade.

Lamet, though, is also viewed as a key part of the Padres’ 2020 plans. He’s expected to hold down a rotation spot alongside Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi. The back of the Padres’ rotation will be a bit in flux as their wave of high-end prospects — headlined by MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino — continue to push toward the big leagues. Lamet, though, has perhaps the highest upside of anyone other than Paddack in that initial quintet.

The 21-year-old Campusano, meanwhile, has significantly elevated his status over the past year. A second-round pick back in 2017, Campusano hit .325/.396/.509 in 487 plate appearances against against much older competition in Class-A Advanced in 2019. He’s now widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects — ranking as high as No. 33 overall in the estimation of ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

While Bryant wouldn’t exactly be a clean fit into the Padres’ lineup in terms of position, his bat would represent a major upgrade to a Padres team that collectively batted .238/.308/.410 — good for just an 88 wRC+ that ranked 24th among Major League clubs. But with Manny Machado entrenched at third base and Fernando Tatis Jr. slotted in at shortstop — Machado’s other position — fitting Bryant into the mix would be a bit tougher.

Bryant does have experience in the outfield corners, but the Padres aren’t really short on options there, either (Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero). Bryant would clearly be the best hitter of the bunch, but San Diego acquired both Pham and Grisham this winter, and Myers’ contract ensures that he’ll be a part of the mix in some capacity. Acee does note that while the Padres were willing to consider moving Tatis to center field in the event of a Francisco Lindor acquisition, that scenario wasn’t a consideration when contemplating a Bryant swap.

At this point, the chances of any deal involving Bryant look to be minimal. The former Rookie of the Year and MVP has already had a sit-down with Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein — a meeting from which he came away with the impression that he’ll be remaining in Chicago. Their asking price could be informative in the event that Bryant once again hits the market, however, and it also speaks to the manner in which the Friars value both Lamet and Campusano.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs declined to pull the trigger on a significant trade and chose to spend next to nothing in free agency.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

If you’re looking for a microcosm of the Cubs’ offseason, consider veteran reliever Alex Claudio.  Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic wrote back in December that, “Before Claudio signed with the Brewers for $1.75 million, the Cubs had made it clear they were interested. But they needed to clear money first, so he signed with Milwaukee.”  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote just days earlier, “[Cubs] officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”

It was a winter marked by the Cubs’ small-market division rivals outbidding them on low- to mid-tier free agents.  Aside from Claudio, the Cubs reportedly had discussions with starting pitcher Josh Lindblom, who ultimately signed with the Brewers for three years and $9.125MM.  The luxury tax hit for the Cubs on Lindblom would have been $3.04MM.  Instead, the Cubs are slotting in Tyler Chatwood as their fifth starter, a signing that itself may never have happened had the Cubs not been outbid by the Cardinals for expat Miles Mikolas in December 2017.  The backup plan behind Chatwood appears to be Jharel Cotton, who last pitched in the Majors two and a half years ago.  The Brewers wound up committing $52.125MM across nine free agents including infielder of interest Eric Sogard ($4.5MM) as well as Swiss army knife Brock Holt ($3.25MM).  So the Cubs’ plan at second base will be Nico Hoerner with backup from minor league signing Jason Kipnis and veteran Daniel Descalso.

The Cubs entered the offseason with a clear need in center field, reportedly meeting with Shogo Akiyama at the Winter Meetings.  Akiyama instead signed with the Reds for three years and $21MM.  The Diamondbacks, another Akiyama suitor, moved on to Starling Marte.  The Cubs moved on to Steven Souza Jr., a $1MM right field short-side platoon partner for Jason Heyward. Souza missed all of 2019 due to “an ACL tear, LCL tear, partial PCL tear, and posterior lateral capsule tear in his left knee.”  It’s not that he’s a bad pickup — he’s had success in the past and now feels 100% after a grueling rehab process — but that the signing was the biggest move of the Cubs’ offseason is rather eye-opening.  The Cubs will hope that Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. can provide more production than they received at the position in 2019.  Aside from Akiyama, the Cubs will also face new Red Nick Castellanos 19 times this year.  The Cubs had interest in keeping Castellanos after he mashed for them in the season’s final two months, but they were never going to pony up $64MM.

The bullpen holdovers have question marks from top to bottom, and that starts with Craig Kimbrel.  If we’re going to discuss the team’s lack of spending, it’s worth noting that they flexed some financial muscle when they signed Kimbrel to a three-year, $43MM deal shortly after last June’s draft.  Bolstering the ’pen in 2020 and 2021 was definitely a big part of that signing — but it’s hard to know whether that’ll be the outcome after Kimbrel posted a 6.53 ERA in 20 2/3 innings and spent time on the IL.

The Cubs added pitchers like Jeffress, Tepera, Winkler, Sadler, Megill, and Morrow to the ’pen, giving them more potential bargains but no additional certainty.  The team would probably feel better had it come away with one of the winter’s top free agent relievers, but a look at the previous winter’s crop — and the early returns of their own Kimbrel addition — shows the massive risk inherent in spending big bucks in the bullpen.  Doubling down after getting burned in year one of the Kimbrel deal would’ve been risky.  The team’s plan of making minor commitments and hoping their Pitch Lab can unearth a few gems actually makes sense.

Back in early December, I was sure the Cubs would at least be willing to spend up to what the collective bargaining agreement calls the “First Surcharge Threshold,” which is $228MM in 2020.  That would have meant paying a 30% tax on money spent between $208-228MM.  Maybe the team hasn’t yet realized a revenue bump from their new Marquee Sports Network, but given the team’s window of control over key players, spending now and resetting later seemed like the logical choice.  Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein stated on October 30th, “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all.  I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”  

Cubs ownership apparently didn’t get the memo, as Tom Ricketts commented extensively on the “dead-weight loss” of paying the competitive balance tax.  The Cubs paid $7.6MM toward the luxury tax for 2019.  Ricketts’ comments have generally served to muddy the waters about this tax, with disingenuous references to losing draft picks.  The fact is that a team only gets its top draft pick moved back ten places if it reaches the “Second Surcharge Threshold,” which is $248MM for 2020 — a level to which the Cubs are not remotely close.  Tom and his sister Laura also referenced how the penalties increase if a team exceeds the Base Tax Threshold repeatedly.  That’s true, and I could see how the Cubs might not want to be a third-time CBT payor in 2021.  With Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood coming off the books in ’21, that may indeed be a time to reset and get below $210MM.  But the Cubs’ inaction this winter suggests an extreme reluctance to go past this year’s $208MM base threshold, even though capping payroll at $228MM for ’20 would result in a maximum tax bill of $6MM — lower than what they paid for 2019.

On September 30th, Epstein said, “Next year is a priority.  We have to balance it with the future. And probably that’s more important now than it was even a year ago, because we’re now just two years away from a lot of our best players reaching the end of their period of control with the Cubs.”  In other words, the team’s window runs through 2021, after which Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber can become free agents.  While Epstein said recently “you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months,” Ricketts feels that “we can stop talking about windows.”  Ricketts’ stated goal of “building a division-winning team every year” seems at odds with the notion of spending $3.5MM on free agents because you don’t like paying a 30% tax.

Though we knew payroll was a concern, the Cubs surprised us by topping out at Souza’s $1MM in free agency.  That surprise was compounded by the team’s failure to make a significant trade.  As of December, a major trade or two seemed inevitable.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote, “The Chicago Cubs have been, according to various executives, ’aggressive,’ ’manic,’ ’motivated’ and ’obvious’ in their desire to trade someone. Or someones. The Cubs are going to make a move. They’re just not sure what yet.”

It seems the Cubs had extensive trade talks involving Bryant, with rumored connections to the Braves and Padres, among others.  But with Bryant’s grievance decision dragging until January 29th and reported “sky-high asking prices,” the Cubs did not find a deal to their liking.  Without knowing what was offered for Bryant, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, and others, it’s impossible to say whether Epstein made the right call.  Eventually, some of these players will be traded, whether at this year’s July trade deadline or in the 2020-21 offseason.  If there’s an obvious extension candidate among the bunch, it’s probably Baez, who acknowledged some “up and down” extension talks with the team this winter.

[RELATED: Grading Theo Epstein’s Cubs Free Agent Signings]

In the end, the Cubs’ biggest offseason acquisition turned out to be manager David Ross.  If the players’ complacency under Joe Maddon wasn’t clear before, consider this damning quote from Baez last month: “A lot of players were doing the same as me.  They were getting loose during the game. You can lose the game in the first inning. Sometimes when you’re not ready and the other team scored by something simple, I feel like it was cause of that. It was cause we weren’t ready.”

2020 Season Outlook

During the Winter Meetings, when a shakeup still seemed likely, Epstein commented, “Status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.”  To that end, the Cubs failed.  Epstein’s assessment at the time on what the status quo would mean: “I’d feel like we’d have one of the most talented teams in the league but that we’d have some areas of exposure where we’d need a lot of things to go right.” 

That sums up the state of the 2020 Cubs perfectly — question marks persist at second base, center field, right field, fifth starter, and across the bullpen, but it’s still a talented team that should contend.  FanGraphs gives the Cubs an 85-win projection and 51.6% chance at the playoffs, much like they did last April after a winter of inaction.  If the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals are behind the Cubs, it isn’t by much, and the Cubs did nothing in the offseason to widen the gap.

How would you grade the team’s offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Cubs Notes: 2B Battle, Rodriguez

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  • It remains unclear how the Cubs will distribute playing time at second base this season, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com writes. Minor league pickup Jason Kipnis has been fighting for the starting job with holdovers Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Daniel Descalso this spring. “It really is a wait and see,” manager David Ross said of the four-way competition. A former All-Star with the Indians, Kipnis possesses the longest track record of the quartet, but his offensive production declined to a noticeable extent from 2017-19, thus stopping him from landing a guaranteed contract.
  • Sticking with the Cubs, flamethrowing pitching prospect Manuel Rodriguez is down for the time being with a Grade 2 biceps strain, Bastian tweets. Rodriguez, 23, hasn’t pitched above the High-A level to this point, but the Cubs are believers in his potential. They added Rodriguez to their 40-man roster last November to prevent another team from grabbing him in the Rule 5 Draft.

Theo Epstein: Cubs Will “Be Very Objective” At Trade Deadline

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You’ve heard by now that the Cubs didn’t exactly turn in an active offseason. Despite entering the winter with talk of change, the club largely picked around the edges and ended up sticking with its existing veterans.

That doesn’t mean the status quo will hold indefinitely. If anything, it seems the pressure will be applied right out of the gates to a roster now overseen by rookie skipper David Ross. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein made clear he’s ready to act at the trade deadline if things don’t go as hoped.

Epstein says the Cubs will “have to be very objective about what we have” during the summer trade period. That’s always the case, to some degree, but it certainly sounds as if the Chicago organization will be applying a rather stringent standard to its buy/sell analysis come July.

“In the middle of this season, if we have a legit World Series contender, that is really meaningful,” said Epstein. “But if we don’t, you can’t be blind to the realities of the following 18 months.”

You need not read through the lines too finely to get the gist. The Cubs are looking at a two-year window on some key players. They’re not interested in waiting until there’s just one season of control left before selling.

Clearly, the hope had been to strike a deal in the just-completed offseason. The team wasn’t able to find a sensible arrangement, but could be more aggressive in shopping players this summer if it’s not in the position it hopes for.

Most interesting of all may be Epstein’s framing of the choice. The standard he poses — “legit World Series contender” — is a fairly lofty one.

What if the Cubs are in a competitive postseason position, but don’t quite seem primed for a serious run at a championship? That’s not clear just yet — and will surely be the subject of close analysis by the organization. But Epstein’s comments make clear, at minimum, that the team has already contemplated scenarios in which it’d engage in a mid-season sell-off of some kind.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the club is pressed up to the competitive balance tax line. It was already fair to wonder, on the heels of a winter of austerity, whether the team would stretch its internal payroll for mid-season additions unless it found itself in a truly compelling position.

Cubs Plan To Keep Heyward In Right

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

Mild Calf Tear Sidelines Brandon Morrow For 10-14 Days

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The whack-a-mole game that is Brandon Morrow’s body continues to keep him from his comeback. He threw earlier this week and appeared to be on track, until a twinge of pain in his calf during a run revealed a mild tear, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (via Twitter). The injury is minor, with Morrow projected to be sidelined for a mere 10-14 days.

Still, given the absolute deluge of elbow, bicep, and back injuries Morrow has undergone over the last couple of seasons, it’s fair to sound the alarms here. This latest setback is innocuous enough in a vacuum, and yet it certainly takes on greater significance given Morrow’s recent history. Even a short-term injury such as this one has to put Morrow’s availability for opening day in question.

The Cubs bullpen is primed for a re-characterization after moving on from veterans like Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and Mike Montgomery, who was dealt to Kansas City at last year’s deadline. Morrow, 35, re-joined the Cubs on a minor league deal after being physically unable to contribute for the entire second season of his original two-year deal with Chicago. At this point, he has to be considered a long shot to make the team, fun as his reemergence would be.

Cubs’ Brad Wieck Undergoes Cardiac Ablation Procedure

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Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

The Cubs acquired Wieck, 28, in the trade that sent righty Carl Edwards Jr. to the Padres prior to last year’s trade deadline. The lefty didn’t make his Cubs debut until being brought to the big leagues as a September call-up, but he gave the team some reason for optimism when he held opponents to four runs on two hits and four walks with 18 strikeouts in 10 innings (3.60 ERA, 2.71 FIP).

Wieck’s previous work with the Padres had been unsightly (18 runs in 24 2/3 innings), but his ability to miss bats was on full display there as well. In total, Wieck has tossed 41 2/3 innings in the big leagues, and while his 4.97 ERA in that time isn’t much to look at, his 59-to-13 K/BB ratio is certainly intriguing. Notably, he’s fared better against righties (.287 wOBA) than lefties (.307) in his young career.

If Wieck isn’t ready to go to begin the season, Kyle Ryan becomes the Cubs’ lone plausible left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster. Prospect Justin Steele is on the 40-man but has yet to pitch above the Double-A level (where he struggled in 2019). The only other lefties on the 40-man roster are Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.

That could open the door for a non-roster invitee like Tyler Olson, Rex Brothers, Danny Hultzen or CD Pelham to get a look, although the Cubs could also just roll with a primarily right-handed relief corps early in the season as well. Wieck himself wasn’t a lock for a spot, given that he has a minor league option remaining, though his September showing put him in a good position.

Camp Battles: Cubs’ Second Base Mix

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The Cubs started seven different players at second base in 2019 with generally uninspiring results. Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist and Tony Kemp are now gone. Let’s take a look at the options who remain to fill that spot on the north side in 2020.

  • Jason Kipnis: Chicago signed Kipnis to a minor-league deal after Cleveland cut bait last offseason. The former star has slumped to a .236/.305/.403 (85 wRC+) mark over the past three seasons, especially struggling against left-handed pitching. His defensive metrics are mixed, with UZR more bullish than DRS or Statcast. At 32 (33 in April), the Illinois native probably won’t be returning to his 2015-16 heights, but there’s hope he can offer reasonable production on both sides of the ball. With that in mind, Kipnis looks to be a good bet to make the Opening Day roster, Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported today.
  • David Bote: Bote got the lion’s share of playing time at second last season, although he’s capable of bouncing around the infield. The 26-year-old has put up league average numbers over his first 566 plate appearances (.257/.362/.422). There’s a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, though, and his career 11.1% walk rate seems a bit inflated by some opportunities hitting in front of the pitcher. The organization clearly believes in him, having extended him through 2024 (with a pair of club options) last spring.
  • Nico Hoerner: The Cubs’ top prospect, Hoerner made it up for a September cameo. A polished hitter coming out of Stanford, he always profiled as a fast riser, but the club may prefer to slow things down a bit. Mediocre results over his first 82 MLB plate appearances certainly won’t sour the organization on him, but Hoerner only logged 294 plate appearances in the high minors, all in Double-A. There’s a case to be made for giving him some seasoning at Triple-A.
  • Daniel Descalso: A late-career swing change seemingly reinvigorated Descalso’s career in Arizona in 2018. The Cubs bought in, signing him to a two-year deal last offseason. Unfortunately, he fell completely flat, hitting just .173/.271/.250 (42 wRC+) in 194 plate appearances. 2018 now looks like an outlier rather than a breakout, as Descalso’s been at least ten percentage points below average at the plate in every other season of his career.
  • Robel García: García, 26, is a phenomenal story, having parlayed a stint in Italy to a return to affiliated ball (and eventually his MLB debut) in 2019. He obliterated the minors to the tune of a .284/.369/.586 line in 388 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. That came with a 30.9% strikeout rate, though, and the whiffs became an even bigger issue in his MLB audition. García struck out in 35 of his 80 MLB plate appearances with an unpalatable 20.9% swinging strike rate. That he’s even in consideration for the job is remarkable considering where he was a year ago; he’ll have to alleviate the swing-and-miss to be a viable everyday option, though.

Also in camp as non-roster invitees are Corban Joseph, Carlos Asuaje and Hernán Pérez. Joseph has intrigued teams recently with quality minor-league numbers, but he’s a 31-year-old with 94 MLB plate appearances to his name. Asuaje, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing tenure in the KBO, while Pérez has hovered around replacement-level over parts of eight seasons as a utility option. Each would seem to need an eye-opening spring to earn the job. Ditto prospect Trent Giambrone, who is also in camp but was left unprotected for (and went undrafted in) the Rule V draft.

Ian Happ could have added another name to the mix. However, the coaching staff considers Happ more of an option in center field, Mooney reports. Thus, it seems likeliest one of the names above picks up the slack at the keystone in 2020.

Brandon Morrow Suffers Mild Chest Strain

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  • In less promising news, Cubs’ reliever Brandon Morrow has been shut down “for at least a few days” with a “mild right upper chest strain,” reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morrow’s timetable for return is unclear, Bastian adds. Standing alone, a non-arm problem wouldn’t be all that worrisome at this stage of spring training. With Morrow’s litany of prior injuries, though, it’s certainly concerning to hear he’s again fighting through pain. Morrow re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal this offseason after injuries wrecked his first two years with the organization. When healthy, the 35-year-old has proven a highly-effective option in the late innings.
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