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NL Notes: Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Padres

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It’s “very unlikely” outfielder Alex Verdugo will return for the Dodgers’ National League Division Series matchup, manager Dave Roberts told Ken Gurnick of MLB.com and other reporters Friday (Twitter links). The rookie originally landed on the injured list Aug. 6 with a right oblique strain, but a back injury has slowed him of late. Meantime, southpaw Rich Hill – who’s dealing with a strained left MCL – will undergo an MRI on Monday. It seems iffy at best that Hill will avoid a lengthy absence, as a strained left MCL previously shelved him for the first month of the season. The injury-prone 39-year-old then missed almost two months with a forearm problem. His start Thursday, when he recorded just two outs, was his first since June 19.

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided a couple injury updates Friday on the Brewers, who are now a game behind the NL’s second wild-card position (Twitter links). Top starter Brandon Woodruff is still on track to return in the next week, but it’s unclear whether he’ll start or relieve. Woodruff will throw a bullpen session Saturday as he continues working back from the oblique strain he suffered July 21. And catcher Manny Pina, out with a concussion since Sept. 5, isn’t recovering as quickly as the team hoped he would, according to manager Craig Counsell. The Brewers have “to stack some good days in a row” for Pina before he’s capable of returning, Counsell said. Milwaukee has been in fine shape behind the plate without Pina, of course, as it boasts one of the game’s elite catchers in Yasmani Grandal.
  • The Cubs promoted executive Jason McLeod to senior vice president of player personnel, which could keep him in their front office for at least a little while longer. But McLeod said this week that his goal is to run a team’s baseball department, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required). “I do aspire to someday lead an organization,” said McLeod, who has been on GM-needy clubs’ radars in the past. He interviewed for that position with the Giants last year, though they instead went on to hire Farhan Zaidi as their president of baseball operations.
  • Padres rookie Chris Paddack will make at least one more start this season, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets. Shutting Paddack down for the year looked like a possibility after he threw six scoreless innings against the Cubs on Wednesday. The rookie standout, 23, has now racked up 135 2/3 innings this season, easily surpassing the previous professional high of 90 he set in 2018 as a minor leaguer.

Digging Into The Cubs’ Looming Decision On David Phelps

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When David Phelps signed with the Blue Jays this past offseason, his $2.5MM contract contained a club option for the 2020 season initially that was valued at $1MM — a likely reflection of the fact that his performance and general health were question marks coming off Tommy John surgery. Unsurprisingly, the contract allowed for him to boost the value of that option with a solid showing in 2019.

Activated from the IL on June 17 and traded to the Cubs on July 30, Phelps has been terrific for both teams, working to a combined 3.18 ERA with a 30-to-12 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings (33 appearances). When he took the mound for the 30th time in 2019, he boosted the value of his 2020 option from that initial $1MM baseline to $3MM. He’s also already earned $500K of incentives and will earn another $250K when he makes his 35th appearance. If Phelps takes the ball seven more times before the end of the regular season, he’ll again boost the value of his option, this time to $5MM, and secure another $350K bonus.

The level at which his 2020 option settles is of particular intrigue because that will also determine the amount of incentives available to him next year. Phelps’ contract came with three different possible tiers of incentives, each of which was based on the option’s ultimate value. MLBTR has learned some of the specifics surrounding those incentive packages. If his option is valued at $3MM (i.e. he appears in 39 or fewer total games), Phelps would be able to earn an additional $2.75MM in appearance-based bonuses: $250K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $400K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games.

Were he to reach that 40-appearance threshold in 2019 and boost the value of the option to $5MM, he’d be able to earn an additional $1.5MM in appearance-based bonuses: $150K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $210K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games. Both tiers contain added incentives for games finished, but the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t bode well for Phelps’ chances of an extended run as the team’s closer.

All of those factors will be weighed by the Cubs when they determine whether to bring Phelps back for the 2020 season, as will the fact that they stand to see a large chunk of their ’pen depart via free agency. Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Derek Holland, Xavier Cedeno, Tony Barnette and Brandon Morrow (who didn’t throw a pitch in 2019) are all off the books at season’s end.

From a pure performance standpoint, Phelps has improved as the season has worn on. His fastball averaged 92.1 mph with the Jays but is up to 92.8 mph with the Cubs. That’s still less than the 94.4 mph he averaged prior to Tommy John surgery, but the life on that heater does seem to be coming back. Phelps also managed just a 5.4 percent swinging-strike rate in Toronto but has seen that rate leap to 11.1 percent in Chicago — a rate that would represent a career-high. He’s also benefited from a sky-high 98.6 percent strand rate with the Cubs, though, which no pitcher can be expected sustain over a larger body of work. Phelps has held righties in check nicely (.232/.311/.377) but struggled against opposing lefties (.263/.349/.553).

Phelps’ usage over the regular season’s final couple of weeks will be worth monitoring, as it may ultimately play a large role in determining whether he’s back with the team in 2020 or searching for a new deal in free agency this winter. Neither the $3MM or $5MM price point is any sort of back-breaker, particularly with a fair bit of money coming off the books. But the Cubs also likely want to maintain as much flexibility as they can, and tacking on an extra $2MM to Phelps’ option is probably something they’d like to avoid, if possible, unless they’re planning to decline the option either way. There’s no buyout on the option, so this’ll be a straight $3MM or $5MM decision, depending on how many more times Phelps takes the ball prior to Sept. 29.

Scott Boras On Nicholas Castellanos’ Market

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There’s no doubt that outfielder Nicholas Castellanos has established himself as one of the majors’ best trade deadline acquisitions this year. Since he went from the Tigers to the Cubs on July 31, Castellanos has slashed .333/.359/.673 with 14 home runs in 167 plate appearances. He’s tied for 21st among position players in fWAR (1.5) dating back to the start of August, while his 160 wRC+ ranks an even better 18th.

Not only has Castellanos’ late-season production been beneficial to the Cubs, who are trying to grab a playoff spot in a hotly contested National League race, but it figures to help his cause on the cusp of a potential trip to free agency. The 27-year-old will be among the premier offensive players on the open market should he get there, which agent Scott Boras implied is likely to happen.

“He’s the youngest free agent, and he doesn’t have a qualifying offer,” Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “So I would say he’s in position to be optimally observed because he fits, really, the m.o. of any team — whether you’re a rebuilding club, because of his age, whether you’re a club that’s close to winning and wants to win, or whether you’re a club that is an existing top-eight club that’s going to compete for the World Series. He’s one of those guys that fits all clubs.”

Whether Castellanos “fits all clubs” is up for debate. After all, his defense has been widely panned at multiple positions since his first full season in Detroit back in 2014. Castellanos spent the initial portion of his career at third base, but he had such difficulty there that the Tigers elected to move him to right field on a full-time basis a couple years back. He has since garnered negative reviews in right, including in 2019. Through almost 1,100 innings in the grass this season, Castellanos has accounted for minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-4.8 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-5 Outs Above Average.

Castellanos’ ongoing issues in the field may well tamp down his value in free agency, and they could turn off certain National League teams from pursuing him because of a lack of a designated hitter option. That said, Castellanos is a long-respectable hitter who has been highly valuable in the NL this year as a member of the Cubs. Plus, as Boras noted, there won’t be a qualifying offer weighing him down because he was part of an in-season trade. That probably won’t be the case for the Cardinals’ Marcell Ozuna – arguably the top corner outfielder nearing free agency – as he figures to receive a QO from his team.

Just how aggressive Chicago will be in trying to retain Castellanos is up in the air at this point. Unsurprisingly, though, Boras doesn’t seem as if he’s in the mood to give the Cubs a discount. While Boras informed Wittenmyer that it would be customary for a free agent to “want to listen to the Cubs” – one of the game’s highest-spending franchises – he expects Castellanos to “listen to everybody.” Castellanos isn’t ready to discuss his post-2019 future, which is to be expected, as he suggested his focus is on the current campaign. Despite Castellanos’ best efforts, the Cubs very well could miss the playoffs this year for the first time since 2014. They’ll head into Friday tied with the Christian Yelich-less Brewers for the NL’s second wild-card spot.

Royals Claim Randy Rosario

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The Royals have claimed southpaw Randy Rosario off waivers from the Cubs, as per a team announcement.  Rosario was designated for assignment by Chicago earlier this week.  To create a 40-man roster spot, Kansas City recalled infielder Kelvin Gutierrez and placed him on the 60-day injured list.

Rosario posted a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 innings for the Cubs this season, a decided step back from the 3.66 ERA he delivered over 46 2/3 relief frames in his 2018 rookie season.  Per ERA predictors, however, Rosario was fortunate (4.68 FIP, 4.60 xFIP, 4.74 SIERA) to escape at least an extra run’s worth of damage in 2018, as the grounder specialist only notched a 5.79 K/9.

This season saw Rosario miss more bats to the tune of an 8.4 K/9 in his brief time in Chicago, though his Triple-A numbers (3.11 ERA, 2.21 K/BB rate, 7.4 K/9) were almost an exact match for his career numbers over 413 minor league innings in the Cubs’ and Twins’ organizations.  Rosario has shown some very good splits against left-handed batters, giving him a possible path to regular work as a specialist in Kansas City’s bullpen.

Injury Notes: Hiura, Cubs, Ender, Rockies, Mariners

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The playoff-contending Brewers received terrible news Tuesday when their best player, all-world outfielder Christian Yelich, suffered a season-ending broken kneecap. Fortunately for the club, though, one of its other top players is on the way back from the injured list. Second baseman Keston Hiura, out since Aug. 31 with a left hamstring strain, could get “some at-bats maybe over the weekend and more game action and field action on the home stand, is what it’s looking like,” according to manager Craig Counsell (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). The Brewers, who are now tied with division-rival Chicago for the Nl’s second wild-card spot, will open up a seven-game home stand next Monday. They’re in contention thanks in part to the rookie Hiura, who has slashed .301/.369/.571 with 16 home runs and nine stolen bases in his first 295 plate appearances in the majors.

  • More unwelcome news for the Cubs, who are in real danger of missing the postseason: They won’t get closer Craig Kimbrel back from the injured list for “at least” another week, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report tweets. The club has been without Kimbrel since Sept. 1 because of right elbow inflammation. Meanwhile, the Cubs will evaluate shortstop Addison Russell when they return home Friday, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com relays. Russell has been dealing with concussion-like symptoms since last weekend.
  • Braves outfielder Ender Inciarte likely won’t return until the last week of September, David O’Brien of The Athletic suggests. Inciarte has been on the shelf since mid-August with a hamstring strain. It’s the second long-term injury of the year for Inciarte, who previously missed two months with a back issue. Inciarte had been amid a hot streak when he suffered his current ailment, as his OPS skyrocketed from .605 to .740 in the month between his IL stints. He and the soon-to-return Nick Markakis could act as a pair of important outfield reinforcements for the Braves as they gear up for the postseason.
  • Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson underwent season-ending left knee surgery back on June 11, but he still won’t be at full strength at the beginning of next year, per manager Bud Black (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). The hope is that Anderson will come back “within the first couple of months” of 2020, Black said. The 29-year-old Anderson’s procedure wrapped up a nightmarish campaign for a hurler who was a respectable member of the Rockies’ rotation from 2016-18. He yielded 27 earned runs on 33 hits, including eight homers, in 20 2/3 innings this season.
  • Mariners outfielder Jake Fraley will miss the remainder of the season because of sprained ligaments in his right thumb, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. Fraley got his first taste of major league action in recent weeks, though he struggled to a .150/.171/.200 line with no home runs in a span of 41 trips to the plate. The 24-year-old offseason acquisition was far better in the minors, though, as he slashed a combined .298/.365/.545 with 19 long balls in 427 plate appearances between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Cubs Outright Taylor Davis

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Cubs catcher Taylor Davis, who was designated for assignment over the weekend, cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Iowa, per the MLB.com transactions log.

Davis, 29, has been up and down with the Cubs over the past three seasons, appearing in just 20 games and putting together a .222/.256/.333 slash with a homer and a double in 39 trips to the plate. He also made one lone appearance on the mound in 2019, entering an 11-2 blowout and allowing three straight singles against the A’s before pulling an improbable Houdini act and escaping the jam unscathed.

A .277/.350/.386 hitter across parts of five Triple-A seasons, Taylor is known as a difficult player to strike out (12.5 percent) with a penchant for drawing plenty of walks (9.9 percent). Davis has thwarted exactly one quarter of the stolen-base attempts against him in his minor league career (60 of 240) and has posted well-above-average framing numbers in Triple-A over the past few seasons.

Cubs Name Jason McLeod Senior VP of Player Personnel

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The Cubs announced Wednesday that senior vice president of amateur scouting and player development Jason McLeod will change role, transitioning to senior vice president of player personnel.

“Jason has made immense contributions to the organization in his eight years supervising Amateur Scouting and Player Development,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said in the press release announcing McLeod’s new position. “He helped build and grow two departments that were crucial in the Cubs’ rebuild, championship and run of sustained success. As his career has evolved, Jason is prepared for new challenges at the Major League level, where his strengths in evaluation, development and culture-building will be quite impactful.”

McLeod, like Epstein and Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer, has roots in the Red Sox organization and has long been seen as a potential future GM himself. He served as Hoyer’s assistant general manager with the Padres in 2010-11 before that duo joined Epstein atop the Cubs’ baseball operations hierarchy. He’s been a fixture in the Cubs’ front office since that time but has been considered for in GM searches around the league, interviewing with both the Twins and the Giants in each club’s most recent front office restructurings.

While McLeod’s focus has been more on the amateur and development side of things with the Cubs, he’ll now take on a greater role in the day-to-day operation of the Major League club and its roster construction, per today’s release.

NL Injury Notes: Kimbrel, Verdugo, Renfroe, Taijuan

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Injured Cubs closer Craig Kimbrel is progressing toward a return, but that won’t come until at least the weekend, Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports. The big-money in-season signing has been on the injured list with right elbow inflammation since Sept. 1, making him eligible to come back as early as Thursday. Kimbrel’s IL placement came on the heels of yet another disappointing performance, in which he yielded three earned runs on two hits (including a homer) in two-thirds of an inning. He’s one of the greatest closers ever, which is why the Cubs guaranteed him $43MM over three years, yet Kimbrel hasn’t resembled his dominant self this season. While the 31-year-old has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities, he owns a bloated 5.68 ERA with 12.32 K/9 against 5.21 BB/9, and has given up just under three HRs per nine across 19 innings of work.

  • The Dodgers clinched their seventh straight NL West title Tuesday, but they’re also dealing with some unwelcome news: Outfielder Alex Verdugo isn’t nearing a return, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. An oblique strain forced the rookie to the IL back on Aug. 6, but he suffered a back injury on a rehab assignment and will sit out “for at least a few days,” Castillo writes. Verdugo has been a valuable contributor this year, having slashed .294/.342/.475 with 2.2 fWAR in 377 plate appearances, but the loaded Dodgers have carried on fine without him thus far.
  • Padres manager Andy Green isn’t willing to guarantee that banged up outfielder Hunter Renfroe will play again this season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. For now, Renfroe’s going to rest on account of right elbow and ankle problems. “Hunter has battled through a lot this second half,” said Green, who added, “There have been a number of days he was unavailable and we’ve managed not to talk about it.” We covered Renfroe’s significant second-half struggles earlier Tuesday, though it now seems possible health problems have been a major cause for his summer slump.
  • Injuries have prevented Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker from taking a big league mound since April 2018, but he said Tuesday (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) he’s still hoping to make an appearance this year. The 27-year-old sat out the majority of 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has dealt with shoulder troubles this season. However, he threw his first bullpen session in four months Tuesday and came out unscathed. Walker’s absence is among the reasons the Diamondbacks’ starting staff has been shaky this year, though the club has nonetheless stayed in the National League wild-card race.

Javier Baez Unlikely To Return In September

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The Cubs announced today that Cubs shortstop Javier Baez likely won’t be able to return to the field of play this month, with ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers among those covering the news on Twitter. He’s planning to rehab his hairline thumb fracture in hopes of being ready for some or all of the postseason.

The news is obviously disappointing, if not unexpected given recent developments. That said, it’s promising that the examination by a specialist did not result in the identification of any damage to thumb ligaments.

Going without Baez undoubtedly hurts the Cubs, who are still trying to chase down the Cardinals in the NL Central while holding off challengers for the final Wild Card spot. With Addison Russell also sidelined, the club was forced to dip into its minor-league system and call up top prospect Nico Hoerner today.

While Baez won’t be able to help the Cubs make it into the postseason, it seems there’s still hope he’ll return to action if they do qualify. His progress, therefore, remains of keen interest even though it doesn’t seem there’s any cause for long-term worry.

Cubs Designate Randy Rosario

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The Cubs have designated Randy Rosario, per a club announcement (h/t Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, on Twitter). That’s the corresponding move for the previously reported promotion of top prospect Nico Hoerner.

In other news, the club has recalled James Norwood and optioned fellow righty Adbert Alzolay. Indications are that the club decided that Alzolay had thrown enough innings — just over eighty at all levels — on the heels of an injury-limited 2018 season. While there was no need to utilize the option to create active roster space, that’ll hit pause on Alzolay’s service clock.

Rosario, 25, had turned in good results for the Chicago organization in 2018, albeit with less-than-promising peripherals. The groundball-oriented southpaw ended up spending the bulk of the present campaign at Triple-A. Through 59 2/3 total innings at the MLB level, Rosario carries a 5.13 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 along with a 53.6% groundball rate.

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