Cubs Sign Josh Phegley To Minor-League Contract
The Cubs have signed catcher Josh Phegley to a minor-league contract, reports Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). No further details are available, although it seems likely Phegley will receive an invite to MLB spring training. Phegley is represented by Pro Star Management.
Phegley (32 in February) has been with the A’s the past four seasons. He got his most extensive MLB action in 2019, logging 342 plate appearances of .239/.282/.411 hitting (82 wRC+). That’s passable work at the dish for a catcher, but Phegley’s framing metrics were among the league’s worst. With top prospect Sean Murphy reaching the big leagues last September, Oakland elected to non-tender Phegley after the season.
The Cubs’ catching tandem of Willson Contreras and Víctor Caratini is among the league’s best, so Phegley could have an uphill battle cracking the roster. Contreras, though, has been bandied about as a potential trade candidate this offseason.
Cubs Acquire Casey Sadler
The Cubs have acquired right-hander Casey Sadler from the Dodgers, per team announcements. Minor league infielder Clayton Daniel is headed back to L.A. Sadler lost his spot on the Dodgers’ 40-man when the club signed Alex Wood. The Cubs’ 40-man roster now sits at 39.
Sadler, 29, pitched to a stellar 2.14 ERA in 46.1 innings between the Rays and Dodgers in 2019. As might be expected, his peripherals hardly supported that level of run prevention. A below-average 9.1% swinging strike rate and 16% strikeout rate contributed to a 4.38 FIP. To Sadler’s credit, he did limit walks and features elite spin on his fastball and curveball. Perhaps he’ll be able to overcome some likely regression in his BABIP allowed and strand rate if he can better actualize his raw stuff in Chicago. Sadler’s out of options, so he’ll have to stick on the Cubs’ active roster or else again be traded or exposed to waivers.
Daniel, 24, has reached Double-A, albeit briefly. In 501 professional plate appearances, mostly in the low minors, the Jacksonville State product has compiled a .290/.367/.379 line with nearly as many walks (52) as strikeouts (53). The former 31st-rounder has logged starts at second, short, and third base, with much of that work coming in the middle infield.
Cubs, Tyler Olson Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs and left-handed reliever Tyler Olson are in agreement on a minor league contract, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He’ll have a $650K base salary if he makes the club and will be in Major League camp as a non-roster invitee this spring. Olson is represented by the Ballplayers Agency.
Olson, 30, rattled off 20 scoreless innings of relief for the Indians back in 2017 but hasn’t come close to replicating that success in the subsequent years. Over the past two seasons in Cleveland, he’s tallied 58 innings with a 4.66 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate.
Lefties have posted a miserable .210/.296/.341 slash against Olson in his big league career, which spans parts of five seasons and includes a total of 94 innings pitched and a composite 3.83 ERA (4.01 FIP). However, right-handed batters have teed off at a .309/.398/.487 clip, which doesn’t bode well in light of the impending three-batter minimum that’ll be installed for pitchers in the upcoming 2020 season. That said, Olson has a respectable track record both in the Majors and in the upper minors, and he’ll give the Cubs some affordable, no-risk depth to take a look at this spring.
Astros To Interview Will Venable
Cubs third base coach Will Venable will interview for the Astros’ managerial opening on Friday, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter links). The Cubs granted Houston permission to speak to Venable about the position.
Mark Berman of FOX 26 first reported yesterday that Venable being considered by the Astros, and Venable brings a different profile than the two candidates who have already interviewed for the position. Whereas Buck Showalter and John Gibbons have combined to manage over 4500 MLB games, the 37-year-old Venable would be a first-time skipper. After wrapping up his nine-year playing career in 2016, Venable took on a new role as a special assistant to Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein in 2017 and then worked two seasons as Chicago’s first base coach.
Venable emerged as a managerial candidate earlier this winter when he was interviewed by the Giants and by the Cubs themselves for their dugout openings. While he didn’t get the big hire, Venable is slated to move into a new role in 2020, as he will move across the diamond to work as a third base coach.
As per the names on Berman’s list, Houston is taking a broad approach to its search, considering both veteran names and candidates without any managerial experience (i.e. Venable, Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Dodgers special advisor Raul Ibanez). It’s hard to predict how the organization might be leaning, both because the search is still in its early stages and due to the lingering cloud of controversy hanging over the Astros due to the sign-stealing scandal that led to the firings of former manager A.J. Hinch and former GM Jeff Luhnow.
Bruce Bochy Not Planning To Pursue Managerial Opportunities At This Time
The 2019 season marked the end of a legendary managerial run with the Giants for Bruce Bochy, but the future Hall of Famer has publicly voiced an interest in continuing his managerial career in the future. FOX 26’s Mark Berman reported just yesterday that Bochy was of interest to Astros owner Jim Crane as he seeks a new skipper following A.J. Hinch’s firing, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that Bochy does not plan to pursue any managerial openings at this time.
At the time he indicated a desire to continue his managerial career, the 64-year-old Bochy termed the 2020 season as something of a “sabbatical” for him as he “hit the pause button.” But while a return in 2021 or beyond is seemingly plausible, it doesn’t appear as though Houston’s reported interest in him is reciprocated at this time.
The Astros have already interviewed Buck Showalter and are set to meet with John Gibbons, too, as they look for a new dugout leader. At this juncture of the offseason, interviewing coaches with other clubs could be more difficult than it would’ve been earlier in the winter when teams had yet to set their staffs and had more time to find suitable replacements for departing coaches. That said, Rosenthal tweets that the Cubs would be willing to let third base coach Will Venable interview for the Astros’ vacancy. Venable, like Bochy, was on Berman’s reported list of potential targets for the Houston organization.
Latest On Braves’ Third Base Plans
The last elite free agent of the winter came off the board Tuesday when third baseman Josh Donaldson agreed to a four-year, $92MM guarantee with Minnesota. Not only does the addition strengthen an already power-happy Twins offense, but it’s also a significant blow for an Atlanta team that received outstanding production from Donaldson in 2019. The club’s situation at third, where Johan Camargo and Austin Riley are in-house front-runners to take over for Donaldson, now looks far less imposing sans Donaldson.
Camargo was effective as recently as two years ago, but his production nosedived during a season to forget in 2019. Riley’s not far removed from a run as a standout prospect, and he began his major league career well last season. However, thanks largely to a bloated strikeout rate (36.4 percent), he endured enormous struggles as 2019 progressed.
There aren’t any obvious answers left at third in free agency, so the Braves could begin the season with what they have at the position and opt for a power bat at another spot (Marcell Ozuna? Nicholas Castellanos?). On the other hand, there are two all-world trade chips in the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado looming on that market.
While Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the Braves are “expected” to revisit previous talks with the Cubs regarding Bryant, David O’Brien of The Athletic throws a bit of cold water on that. The Braves “haven’t been gung-ho on either,” per O’Brien. As was reported previously, the Braves have concerns over Bryant’s defense. And the former MVP’s contract status figures to help stand in the way of a trade with the Braves or anyone else for at least a little while longer. The Cubs and the rest of the league continue to await word on whether Bryant has one or two years of control left after he filed a service-time grievance in October.
Similarly, there are questions over how much longer it’ll be before Arenado becomes a free agent. Unlike Bryant, Arenado is on a long-term contract – a guaranteed $234MM over seven years – but he will be able to opt out of it after his age-30 season in 2021. The massive amount left on Arenado’s deal, his opt-out rights and a hesitance to surrender multiple prospects for him have led to wariness from the Braves, according to O’Brien.
As of last month, general manager Alex Anthopolous and the Braves were on the hunt for a middle-of-the-order hitter. The hope then was that Donaldson would take on that role again in 2020, but the two-time reigning NL East champions’ lineup suddenly looks much weaker now that he’s gone. With strong free-agent options dwindling, the Braves hardly shoo-ins to land either Bryant or Arenado, and their projected Opening-Day payroll ($140MM) already $5MM higher than last year’s season-ending outlay, it’s unclear where the Braves will go from here.
Cubs, Jason Adam Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Jason Adam, tweets Robert Murray. It’s a minor league pact with an invite to Major League Spring Training, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. Adam, who is represented by Platinum Sports, has already passed his physical.
The 28-year-old Adam posted a 2.91 ERA in 21 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays in 2019 but was cut loose in early December. Looking beyond that ERA, however, Adam’s 3.95 FIP and 6.20 xFIP are more alarming. His 18-to-10 K/BB ratio, 25 percent ground-ball rate and .237 average on balls in play all serve as red flags as well. On the flipside of things, the spin rate on Adam’s heater landed in the 98th percentile among MLB hurlers, and he averaged a hearty 94.7 mph on the pitch. He’s also pitched to a combined 2.14 ERA in 42 innings at the Triple-A level across the past two seasons.
If Adam does ultimately make the roster, he has two minor league option years remaining, so he can be shuttled between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa if the team sees fit. He also has less than a full season of Major League service at present, so he wouldn’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason at the earliest — and more likely not until the 2022-23 offseason.
Athletics Acquire Tony Kemp
2:20pm: The Athletics announced that Kemp has been acquired in exchange for minor league infielder Alfonso Rivas. Oakland’s 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.
1:55pm: The Athletics have acquired infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp in a trade with the Cubs, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). He’s just one name involved in a multiplayer trade, per Slusser.
Kemp, 28, appeared in 110 games between the Astros and Cubs in 2019, going from the former to the latter in exchange for catcher Martin Maldonado prior to the July 31 trade deadline. In 279 plate appearances, he mustered just a .212/.291/.380 slash with eight homers, nine doubles, four triples and four steals. Long one of Houston’s more intriguing prospects, Kemp has yet to find sustained success at the MLB level. He’ll give the A’s an option to insert into their second base and corner outfield mix, but he’s also out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with the club out of Spring Training or else be moved to another club or designated for assignment.
The A’s have reportedly been on the hunt for some left-handed depth all winter, and Kemp will bring some southpaw-swinging versatility to their bench mix. He’s played all three outfield positions and second base in both the big leagues and in his minor league career. And although he hasn’t hit much in the Majors, Kemp is a lifetime .312/.373/.425 hitter in four Triple-A seasons.
Rivas, 23, was Oakland’s fourth-round pick as recently as 2018. He’s worked mostly as a first baseman but seen brief time in the outfield corners as well. The University of Arizona product has,to this point in his pro career, shown a strong knack for getting on base but minimal power, compiling a .290/.390/.411 slash through 800 professional plate appearances. He’s walked at a 13 percent clip against a 20.5 percent strikeout rate and briefly reached the Triple-A level in 2019 — albeit only in a six-game cameo after skipping over Double-A entirely. An assignment to Double-A with the Cubs to open the 2020 season seems likeliest.
Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.
3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.
In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.
11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.
That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.
Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.
This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.
Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.
Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.
The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers. A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.
Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.
Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.
Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.
Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.
Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.