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2013 Contract Issues: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in MLBTR’s 2013 Contract Issues series:

Eligible For Free Agency (4)

  • Ryan Dempster - Dempster owns a 1.74 ERA through six starts and could be traded this summer. The Cubs may make the 35-year-old a qualifying offer after the season, but I don't expect them to. Dempster's ERA is definitely not sustainable and he's bound to start declining at some point, so the Cubs may look to ensure that it doesn't happen on their roster and payroll.
  • Shawn Camp - Camp has pitched well for the Cubs, and the team may have interest in retaining him on a minor league deal for 2013. 
  • Reed Johnson - Johnson, 35, has been a valuable extra outfielder in recent seasons, but the Cubs' offseason plans won't revolve around him.
  • Jeff Baker - Baker, who is off to a slow start at the plate, won't necessarily be asked to return.

Contract Options (2)

  • Paul Maholm: $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. Maholm has stayed healthy this year and $6.5MM isn't unreasonable for a back-end starter with some upside.
  • Kerry Wood: $3MM club option without a buyout. Wood has struggled through nine appearances, as his 8.64 ERA indicates. However, this has the potential to be a bargain for the Cubs if the right-hander can stay healthy and show signs that he's the same pitcher he was in 2011.

Arbitration Eligible (8)

The Cubs face a relatively expensive projected arbitration class that includes some of the team's best players. Soto and Garza will earn raises next winter as they go to arbitration for the final time. Samardzija and Castro seem primed for salaries of at least $2MM (unfortunately for Samardzija, starters Rick Porcello and David Price didn't seem to be able to use their generous pre-arbitration salaries to boost their arbitration earnings this past offseason). Wells, Volstad and Stewart could each be traded or non-tendered if the Cubs aren't comfortable locking them in for raises and roster spots going forward.

2013 Payroll Obligation

The Cubs have approximately $35MM committed to next year's payroll, including Alfonso Soriano's $19MM salary. They have spent at least $100MM on payroll in each of the past five seasons, so president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer should have financial flexibility even after accounting for arbitration raises.

Minor Moves: Zavada, DeWitt, Cubs, Diamondbacks

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Today’s minor moves..

NL Central Notes: Rizzo, Pirates, Appel, Cardinals

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The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing streak with a 7-6 win over the Cubs this afternoon.  Yadier Molina was the hero for St. Louis, delivering a walkoff RBI single to cinch the victory.  Here's the latest from around the NL Central…

  • Theo Epstein was hesitant to make the trade that brought Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs since Epstein didn't want to give up Andrew Cashner, reports Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago.  It was Cubs GM Jed Hoyer who "aggressively pushed" for the deal.  Levine covers a number of different Cubs (and White Sox) topics in this online chat with readers.
  • The Pirates aren't likely to make a trade to address their hitting problems, GM Neal Huntington told reporters (including Karen Price of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).  “There are very, very few trades of substance made in May and there are few trades of substance made in June, so our solutions are going to have to come internally unless we’re willing to be less than intelligent and dramatically overpay. That’s just the way it is," Huntington said.  “We’re certainly looking externally, but the extra wild card has made it that much more of a challenge. There are fewer sellers out there, and we’re going to have to be creative.”
  • ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription required) has released his first 2012 mock draft and he projects the Astros to take Stanford right-hander Mark Appel with the first overall pick.  "The general feeling is that they'll take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton," Law writes, though he notes that Houston's decision could also be determined by which player is willing to sign for the lowest price beneath the $7.2MM slot figure for the first pick.
  • Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal's hot starts have fueled the Cardinals' big offensive numbers, writes Scott Miller for CBS Sports.

Rosenthal On Braves, Dempster, Rizzo, Astros

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One scout told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the work of the Braves’ hitting instructors and the performance of Kris Medlen has made the difference for the team so far in 2012. Atlanta GM Frank Wren agrees with that assessment, according to Rosenthal, who offers notes and rumors from around the league in his latest column:

  • The Cubs are more likely to trade Ryan Dempster if they sign Matt Garza to an extension. However, Dempster’s ten and five rights allow him to veto any trade, so he’ll have leverage if the Cubs look to make a move. It doesn’t seem likely that Dempster will sign a below-market extension to stay in Chicago, Rosenthal writes.
  • The Cubs don’t have immediate plans to call up Anthony Rizzo, who figures to stay in the minor leagues until an opening emerges.
  • Releasing Alfonso Soriano doesn’t appear to be an option; the outfielder has approximately $50MM remaining on his contract with the Cubs.
  • General managers criticize the collective bargaining agreement, Rosenthal reports. Some low-revenue teams dislike spending restrictions on the draft, since they feel the limitations will drive up the price of MLB talent.
  • Chien-Ming Wang, who is now rehabbing at Triple-A, could be valuable insurance for the Nationals, since they’ve decided to cap Stephen Strasburg’s innings.
  • Brett Myers’ 2013 option likely vests with approximately 55 games finished, Rosenthal suggests. The right-hander will obtain a $500K bonus if the Astros trade him.
  • One scout says Blue Jays catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud looks like Russell Martin did with the Dodgers.

Red Sox, Cubs Complete Marlon Byrd Trade

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The Red Sox and Cubs completed the trade that sent Marlon Byrd to Boston, Alex Speier of WEEI.com tweets. The Red Sox are sending left-hander Hunter Cervenka to the Cubs to complete the April 21st trade that sent Byrd and cash to Boston for Michael Bowden and a player to be named.

Cervenka, 22, started the 2012 season with Class A Greenville, where he has an 8.04 ERA with 13.8 K/9 and 6.9 BB/9 in 15 2/3 innings. The 2008 27th round selection has a 5.97 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 in four professional seasons.

Cubs Sign Mike MacDougal

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The Cubs have signed Mike MacDougal to a minor league deal, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweets. The Dodgers released the right-hander after designating him for assignment earlier this month.

MacDougal, 35, struggled through seven appearances with the Dodgers this year, allowing nine hits, six walks and five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. He had signed a one-year, $1MM deal in January after spending the 2011 season with the Dodgers. He posted a 2.05 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 60.9% ground ball rate in 57 innings last year, when he ranked tenth among MLB pitchers in ground ball rate (minimum 50 innings). 

Quick Hits: Garza, Eveland, Wright, Beckett, Brewers

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Here's the latest from around the league as Saturday turns into Sunday…

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.com (video link) says talks between the Cubs and Matt Garza about a potential contract extension are going "very well." Jeff Samardzija's emergence has the club excited about possibly having two power righties in the rotation long-term.
  • The Orioles are expected to designate Dana Eveland for assignment tomorrow, reports Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com (on Twitter). Eveland made a spot start earlier this week and the move would create room on the roster for outfield prospect Xavier Avery, who will be called up.
  • Adam Rubin of ESPN New York explains why the Mets must sign David Wright to a long-term extension. The team holds a $16MM club option for their third baseman for 2013 and he'll become a free agent after that season.
  • MLB.com's Mike Bauman says the Red Sox have not gotten what they've paid for out of Josh Beckett. The right-hander signed a four-year, $68MM contract early in 2010.
  • “Stable management with good leadership is what you look for in companies,” said Brewers owner Mark Attanasio to Tyler Kepner of The New York Times about his front office. GM Doug Melvin and manager Ron Roenicke recently received contract extensions.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Garza, Bartlett

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The Mets play the 8,000th game in the history of their franchise tonight, and they're still looking for their first ever no-hitter. Here are some links to read before Johan Santana takes on Mark Buehrle and the Marlins in Miami…

  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington says the team's medical staff doesn't believe Josh Beckett was putting himself at risk by golfing with stiffness in his lat muscle, Alex Speier of WEEI.com writes. Cherington does acknowledge that perception matters when it comes to the team's level of commitment.
  • Lines of communication are open between Matt Garza and the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CSBSports.com reports. The Cubs will try to extend Garza, who's under team control through 2013. Heyman suggests a five-year, $80MM deal could work for both sides.
  • Some people expect the Padres to release Jason Bartlett, Heyman tweets. The 32-year-old has a .433 OPS in 88 plate appearances and he doesn't appear to figure into the Padres' long-term plans.

Castro Won’t Talk Long-Term Deal During Season

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Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro is off to a fine start this season and is likely in position to start talking about a long-term deal with the club.  However, agent Paul Kinzer told Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune that he won’t seek a new contract for his client during the season.

“Maybe after the season, but I’m not really interested during the season to talk about it,” Kinzer said. “I don’t want any distractions.”

Kinzer went on to say that Castro enjoys playing in Chicago and expects to talk with the club eventually about a long-term pact.  As it stands now, the All-Star will become eligible for arbitration after this season and is in line for free agency after the 2016 campaign.  The 22-year-old has Super Two status, giving him an additional year of arbitration eligibility.

Make Or Break Year: Geovany Soto

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In the aftermath of Geovany Soto's big 2010 season, the catcher was being looked at as extension candidate, in line for a healthy multiyear contract.  The Cubs held off extending Soto and instead chose to go year-to-year in arbitration, which may have proven to be a wise decision.  Soto followed up his .280/.393/.497 performance in 2010 with a disappointing .228/.310/.411 slash line in 2011, and has thus far gotten off to a slow start this season, with just a .526 OPS entering tonight's play.  (Though, in fairness, Soto's .157 BABIP indicates he's been very unlucky.)

Uspw_6233158Soto earned $3MM in 2011 and $4.3MM this season during his first two arb-eligible years and is due for one more trip through the arb process before hitting free agency after the 2013 campaign.  We can tentatively predict Soto to earn around $5.5MM next year since even if he continues to hit poorly, I think the Cubs will still tender him a contract.  Soto's big 2010 season and his Rookie Of The Year campaign in 2008 are still too fresh in everyone's memory, and since solid-hitting catchers are such a commodity in the game, the Cubs will likely give Soto another chance to regain his past form.

"Likely," however, is not a certainty.  Soto is a middling-to-below average defender, so unless his bat heats up, he has little value.  Chicago has another catching prospect in 25-year-old Welington Castillo, who has posted an .852 OPS in 590 Triple-A plate appearances and is currently serving as the Cubs' backup with Steve Clevenger on the DL.  Jed Hoyer could go in a different direction next year, using Castillo and Clevenger (who also has some good minor league numbers) in a righty-lefty platoon, possibly with a veteran brought into the mix during Spring Training to add depth.

If the Cubs do give up on Soto, it's more likely that they would try to deal him at the trade deadline rather than non-tendering him for nothing in return.  The Rays are the most notable contender with a clear need at catcher, though a number of other teams could develop a hole behind the plate by the end of July.  If Soto can't get his bat going, expect him to be dealt for a low-level prospect to a team in need of a backup catcher.  If Soto does hit, however, he'll keep his job in Chicago for at least one more season, though the Cubs will still be right to hold off on an extension until they see what Soto does in 2013.

Photo courtesy of Howard Smith/US Presswire

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