Cubs Rumors

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Matt Chapman

By Nick Deeds | December 4, 2023 at 11:29pm CDT

Much of the rumor mill this offseason regarding the Cubs has been tied to the top two positional free agents on the market- two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and center fielder Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom re-established himself as a star-level player this season after signing with Chicago on a one-year deal last offseason. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the club’s interest in top of the positional free agent market extends beyond those two names, as Chicago is “looking at” third baseman Matt Chapman. Heyman goes on to note that the Cubs are waiting on a decision from Ohtani before engaging with Bellinger and Chapman more substantially.

That the Cubs would have interest in Chapman’s services is hardly a surprise. While the club has a strong middle infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner providing solid offense paired with elite defense, the club’s production at the corner infield spots was far less impressive in 2023. The club’s 103 wRC+ at first base, which is somewhat inflated by the 59 appearances Bellinger made at the position, ranked just 17th in the majors. The hot corner was even more dire, as Chicago’s mix of third basemen including Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni combined for a wRC+ of just 92 with just 1.8 fWAR. The latter figure was the eleventh-worst production from third base among all major league clubs last season, despite a late-season boost from deadline addition Jeimer Candelario.

Meanwhile, Chapman is among the league’s premiere third basemen. Only Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Isaac Paredes posted more fWAR than Chapman’s 3.5 last season among regulars at the hot corner, while only ten third baseman posted a wRC+ better than Chapman’s figure of 110. In addition to improving Chicago’s dismal production at third base, Chapman would provide the club with a much-needed boost in power. While the Cubs’ offense scored the sixth-most runs in the majors last year, they ranked 12th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of just 104 thanks in large part to middling power production, as evidenced by their roughly average ISO (.167) and home run total (196).

That’s not to say Chapman comes without red flags, of course. While the 30-year-old has long been a reliable source of 25-to-30 home runs per season, he suffered something of a power outage in 2023 with just 17 home runs in 581 plate appearances. While his underlying metrics (including a 17.1% barrel rate and a career-best 56.1% Hard-Hit rate) suggest that lack of power production may not have been deserved, it’s still a somewhat worrying sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30 who regularly posts strikeout rates that approach 30%. Despite those concerns, MLBTR projected Chapman for a six-year, $150MM deal this offseason while ranking him as the winter’s third-best positional free agent and seventh overall on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Much of that value comes from the slugger’s glove.

Though he hasn’t posted the elite OAA numbers in recent years that he did earlier in his career, Chapman is still on the shortlist of best defensive third baseman in the game; his +5 OAA in 2023 ranked in the 87th percentile, while his +12 DRS leaves him as the 12th most valuable infielder with the glove in baseball last year. Even if his offense is closer to the 110 wRC+ range than his career mark of 118 or the 130 wRC+ he posted during his peak years of 2018-20, pairing Chapman with Swanson and Hoerner on the infield dirt would put the Cubs in the conversation for the best infield defense in the sport.

Just as the Cubs are looking into other options besides Chapman as they look to add an impact bat in free agency, so too does Chapman have other suitors beyond Chicago. Both the Giants and the incumbent Blue Jays have also been connected to the infield so far this offseason, with Toronto having reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100MM in the four-to-five year range before he even hit the open market. An interesting wrinkle in the Chapman sweepstakes is that each of the aforementioned teams he’s been connected to so far this winter are also rumored to be among the remaining suitors for Ohtani.

Though it’s at least feasible that a club could look to sign Chapman this winter even after landing Ohtani, it’s impossible to predict what sort of payroll space any team would have remaining after committing $500MM or more to the offseason’s top free agent. Given that uncertainty and the position of Chapman’s publicly-known suitors as potential players in the Ohtani sweepstakes, it would be a surprise if a signing was imminent for the offseason’s top infielder.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

By Mark Polishuk | December 3, 2023 at 12:55pm CDT

Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut. “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said. “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games. The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Pursuit Of Shohei Ohtani

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.

The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.

As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).

While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2023 at 10:00am CDT

Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

Cubs To Hire Ryan Flaherty As Bench Coach

By Darragh McDonald | November 29, 2023 at 1:25pm CDT

The Cubs are expected to name Ryan Flaherty as their bench coach, reports Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic. Until recently, Flaherty had that same job with the Padres.

Flaherty, 37, played in the majors from 2012 to 2019 but then quickly transitioned into coaching. The Padres hired him as a quality control coach prior to the 2020 season and he subsequently became bench coach and offensive coordinator going into 2023.

He is clearly a respected voice around the league, as he has received plenty of attention around the league despite only finishing his playing career a few years ago. The Mets wanted to interview him for their bench coach gig prior to 2022 but the Friars denied that request. With manager Bob Melvin departing the Padres for the Giants this offseason, Flaherty was considered a candidate for the bench boss in San Diego but that job ultimately went to Mike Shildt. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Flaherty had one year left on his contract but was given permission to interview with other teams after the Shildt hiring.

It seems that Flaherty has decided to make a change after four years in San Diego. He will now jump to the Cubs, who have shaken up their staff by hiring Craig Counsell to replace David Ross as manager. Counsell will have Flaherty as his top lieutenant while the Padres will now have to make yet another hire, finding Shildt a replacement for the bench coach role.

Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians

By Steve Adams | November 28, 2023 at 9:24am CDT

Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.

Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.

That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.

Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.

For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.

Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.

From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.

For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.

Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.

Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.

The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.

Dodgers, Cubs, Angels Among Clubs Interested In Robert Stephenson

By Darragh McDonald | November 27, 2023 at 9:53am CDT

Free agent right-hander Robert Stephenson is proving to be quite popular this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. He is drawing interest from the Dodgers, Cubs and Angels, but other unnamed clubs as well.

Stephenson, 31 in February, was one of the lesser known names on MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents published earlier this month, where Stephenson was pegged for a four-year, $36MM deal. The righty had struggled with injuries and underperformance at various times in his career but had a well-timed breakout just before he hit the open market.

He was traded from the Pirates to the Rays in early June and then started throwing a cutter instead of a slider, with phenomenal results. He went on to make 42 appearances after heading to Tampa, posting an earned run average of just 2.35 in 38 1/3 innings. He struck out an incredible 42.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.7%. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in that time, that strikeout rate was fourth in the majors, trailing only Félix Bautista, Aroldis Chapman and Pete Fairbanks. Stephenson had a lower walk rate than all three of those guys, making his 37.1% K-BB% ratio tops in the majors in that time frame.

That’s a fairly small sample of work, but Stephenson once had a strong prospect pedigree. He was a first-round pick of the Reds back in 2011 and was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight years from 2013 to 2016, getting as high as #19 in 2014. He reached the majors as a starter and posted fairly lackluster results, with an ERA of 5.47 at the end of 2018, having thrown 133 1/3 major league innings in that time.

A move to the bullpen seemed to help, as he made 57 appearances in 2019 with an ERA of 3.76. But in 2020, he missed roughly a month due to a mid-back strain and allowed 11 earned runs in the 10 innings he was able to pitch in the shortened season. He was traded to the Rockies prior to 2021 and managed to get back on track, despite making Coors Field his home, posting a 3.13 ERA in 49 appearances that year. But 2022 saw him struggle with a 6.04 ERA in 45 appearances for the Rockies before getting claimed off waivers by the Pirates in August.

The most recent season got off to a slow start, as he had some right arm discomfort in the spring and started the season on the injured list. He eventually made 18 appearances for the Pirates this year but showed some rust, walking 13.1% of opponents and allowing 5.14 earned runs per nine. But as mentioned, a midseason trade to the Rays preceded a tremendous step forward.

Now Stephenson seems positioned to cash in. Though his big breakout was just a few months of work, he was one of the best relievers in the league for that time. It didn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had once been a highly-touted youngster and had a couple of seasons of decent relief work recently. Teams have made huge gambles on relievers based on small samples before, with Drew Pomeranz getting four years and $34MM, Robert Suarez five years and $46MM, while Rafael Montero got three years and $34.5MM. All three of those guys had fairly limited or inconsistent track records but some flashy underlying numbers that the signing club was betting on.

It would take a change in strategy for the Cubs to be seriously in on Stephenson. Since Jed Hoyer was promoted to president of baseball operations, they have stuck to one-year deals for relievers, signing guys like Mychal Givens, Michael Fulmer, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, Brad Boxberger, Chris Martin, Ryan Tepera and others with mixed results. None of those guys got more than $5MM and getting Stephenson will surely take more than that on an annual basis and for multiple years. But the Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time and may be willing to push a little farther after just missing the playoffs in 2023. The club’s relievers had a collective ERA of 3.85 in 2013, which placed them 13th in the league.

The Dodgers’ bullpen had a 3.42 ERA in 2023, which was third-best in the league, and most of their key relievers are still under club control for 2024. Adding another high-octane arm there would seemingly be more of a luxury buy than a necessity, especially when they have needs in the rotation and could potentially give a massive contract to Shohei Ohtani. But per Roster Resource, they are roughly $80MM below the competitive balance tax and well below previous franchise highs, so maybe they have enough powder dry to address everything on their to-do list and go after Stephenson.

The Angels have often struggled to put together a decent bullpen and that was again the case in 2023, with a collective ERA of 4.88 that was better than just five clubs. They tried to spend some money to address that issue a few years ago by signing Raisel Iglesias to a four-year deal but he was flipped to Atlanta after just a year and a half. The club has been struggling to get above .500 in recent years but has no plans of rebuilding this winter, even if Ohtani winds up going elsewhere.

Cubs To Sign Edwin Escobar

By Nick Deeds | November 25, 2023 at 8:09am CDT

The Cubs have agreed to a contract with left-hander Edwin Escobar, according to reporter Luis Enrique Morales (X link). The details of the deal are not currently known, though Escobar has updated his personal Instagram page to reflect his new team.

Escobar, 32 in April, was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the 2014 season. After making his professional debut in the Rangers organization, Escobar spent several years with the Giants before being swapped to the Red Sox in the deal that sent Jake Peavy to San Francisco at the 2014 trade deadline. Escobar made his MLB debut with Boston later that year, allowing one run on one hit and a hit batter while striking out two and walking none. After spending the 2015 season in the minors, Escobar resurfaced with the Diamondbacks in 2016 and struggled badly with a 7.23 ERA and 5.93 FIP in 23 2/3 innings of work.

While Escobar was claimed off waivers by Cleveland early in the 2016-17 offseason, he was released later that same offseason to pursue opportunities overseas. Since then, Escobar has spent seven seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars and Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. In that time, he’s logged 395 appearances overseas with a 3.17 ERA and a 23.3% strikeout rate in 392 1/3 innings of work. Since the start of the 2019 season, he’s been even more impressive with a 2.71 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate.

Now, Escobar is set to return to stateside ball for the first time since the 2016 season. He’ll do so with a Cubs team that’s in clear need of bullpen upgrades; Chicago’s relief corps was middle-of-the-pack last season in terms of ERA (3.85), FIP (4.05), and fWAR (4.4) while posting the league’s second-highest walk rate (11%).

Adbert Alzolay performed respectably as the Cubs’ closer. It’s certainly feasible that right-handers Mark Leiter Jr. and Julian Merryweather will be able to contribute once again in 2024, but the club’s bullpen has little certainty beyond those provisional top three arms, particularly if Javier Assad’s services are required in the starting rotation). Escobar also provides the club with some needed left-handed depth, after Brandon Hughes was non-tendered last week.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel?

By Nick Deeds | November 24, 2023 at 7:29pm CDT

On the heels of a 83-79 season that saw the Cubs finish just outside of the NL playoff picture, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office appear poised to be aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of returning the club to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game campaign since 2018. Chicago already shocked the baseball world this offseason by hiring Craig Counsell to manage the club on a record-setting contract and has been connected to high-profile free agents such as NPB arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Yuki Matsui as well as center fielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, to say nothing of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

In addition to the rumors swirling around the Cubs and many of the league’s top free agents, the Cubs have been connected to many of the league’s top trade candidates including Padres outfielder Juan Soto, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and even Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the center of many of those hypothetical trade discussions has been young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has appeared in early offseason trade rumors so frequently that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ranked him #22 in his list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.

Morel made his MLB debut back in May of 2022, just before his 23rd birthday. The youngster initially broke onto the club’s roster due to an injury to Jason Heyward, which provided Morel with the opportunity to get semi-regular reps in center field with the big league club despite having never played above the Double-A level to that point. Morel made the most of his opportunity, sticking on the club’s roster throughout the rest of the 2022 season and slashing .235/.308/.433 (108 wRC+) in 113 games while splitting time between center field, second base, third base, and shortstop.

That above-average offensive production and impressive versatility in Morel’s rookie season gave him the look of a potential big league regular, though there were certainly flaws in his profile. Morel was a well below average defender in center and seemed to be a fringy defender at both third base and shortstop as well, despite a solid showing at second base. On top of the defensive question marks, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s above-average slash line was carried by a hot first half; the youngster slashed just .194/269/.376 in 184 trips to the plate during the second half in 2022. Between that late-season slump and his 32.2% strikeout rate, which was sixth-highest in the majors among players with at least 400 plate appearances that year, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s production would be sustainable entering his sophomore season.

The questions about Morel’s glove were only exacerbated by the signing of Dansby Swanson, who slotted in at shortstop and kicked Nico Hoerner over to second base in doing so. With Hoerner now an obvious everyday solution at second base, Morel entered the 2023 season without a clear role on the big league club and started the season at Triple-A. He tore the cover off the ball with a comical .330/.425/.730 slash line in 29 games with the club’s Iowa affiliate before the Cubs had seen enough to bring him up to the big leagues. Though he logged occasional time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop, Morel spent much of the season as Chicago’s primary DH.

Morel took to his new role quite well, slashing .247/.313/.508 (119 wRC+) with 26 home runs across just 429 trips to the plate. Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez, and Nolan Gorman hit more home runs in under 500 trips to the plate this year. What’s more, Morel’s .260 ISO ranked sixteenth among players with at least 400 big league plate appearances in 2023, ranking just behind Jorge Soler and just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Though Morel’s strikeout rate of 31% is still high enough to raise plenty of eyebrows, the youngster managed to establish himself as a quality big-league power bat as the Cubs’ regular DH.

As previously mentioned, Morel has found himself at the center of trade rumors this offseason with the Cubs potentially in line to be aggressive this winter. Reports have suggested Morel as a potential piece of the return for both Soto and Alonso should the Cubs look to deal for either player, though other reports have indicated the Cubs might be hesitant to include Morel in a deal for a rental piece.

The decision on whether or not to shop Morel this offseason is an interesting one for the Cubs. The youngster is not yet eligible for arbitration and figures to remain under team control for five more seasons before being first eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. His power-oriented bat could prove crucial for the Cubs in 2024, particularly after the 2023 team landed middle-of-the-pack in terms of both ISO and home runs this past season, and it’s always possible that a player as young as Morel manages to find another gear and break out. That sort of upside could make it hard for the Cubs to part with Morel, especially given the amount of team control he has remaining.

That being said, with Nico Hoerner locked in at second base for the next three seasons while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are set to patrol the outfield corners for that same term, Morel seems unlikely to find a long-term position in Chicago— at least, unless he takes to a new position this winter. What’s more, Morel’s propensity for striking out combined with just average walk rates for his career give him an uncertain floor as a player; if his power production dips, it’s possible the Cubs could be looking at a roughly league average offensive contributor taking up their DH slot on most days. That risk could make it sensible for Chicago to attempt to sell high on Morel this offseason.

What do MLBTR readers think about Chicago’s dilemma? Should the Cubs look to move Morel now, given his value may never be higher? Or should they hold onto him in hopes of a breakout that could make him an impact player in spite of his limited defensive value? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel This Offseason?

Yes, sell high on Morel and shop him aggressively. 40.43% (2,962 votes)

Listen to offers on Morel, but don't trade him for a rental player. 36.90% (2,704 votes)

No, hold onto Morel and see how he develops. 22.67% (1,661 votes)

Total Votes: 7,327

Cubs Promote Jared Banner To Assistant GM

By Anthony Franco | November 21, 2023 at 11:36pm CDT

The Cubs have promoted vice president of player development Jared Banner to assistant general manager, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Chicago lost one of their previous AGMs, Craig Breslow, when he was hired as chief baseball officer of the Red Sox a month ago.

Banner had been in charge of the farm system for the past two seasons. He has spent three years in the Chicago front office altogether. The Amherst graduate previously worked with the Red Sox and Mets. The Cubs have a strong farm system headlined by young center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and recent first-round draftees Cade Horton and Matt Shaw. Baseball America ranked Chicago’s minor league pipeline sixth in MLB in August.

The promotion pushes Banner alongside Ehsan Bokhari as assistant GMs in the Wrigley Field offices. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is the lead decision-maker, while GM Carter Hawkins is in his third offseason as Hoyer’s top lieutenant.

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