Jameson Taillon Likely To Begin Season On Injured List
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon hasn’t yet appeared in an official Spring Training contest this year and manager Craig Counsell admitted that the righty may not have enough time to get ready for Opening Day. The skipper tells Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune that Jameson is trending towards beginning the season on the injured list.
Jameson was initially slowed at the start of this month with some soreness in his calves but then that was followed by some lower back tightness. With Opening Day now just over two weeks away, he’s running out of time to get himself into game shape.
When a player is placed on the injured list at the start of a season, the transaction can be backdated by three days. The Cubs also have two off days in the first couple of weeks of the schedule and those two facts could limit Jameson to only missing the first 10 games of the schedule.
But that would be contingent on him returning to health and getting back on track so that he can build up between now and then. The righty has generally been fairly durable apart from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He made 25 starts in 2017 and 32 in 2018 prior to the surgery, more recently making at least 29 starts in the three most recent campaigns.
Last year, he missed a couple of weeks due to a groin strain but otherwise was on the mound, logging 154 1/3 innings. The problem was that his earned run average jumped to 4.84, almost a full run better than his 3.91 from the year before. His 21.4% strikeout rate was actually a bit better than in 2022 but most other metrics moved in the wrong direction. His walk rate, ground ball rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate were a few ticks worse than the prior campaign.
Taillon signed a four-year, $68MM deal prior to last year and is still a key piece of the club’s rotation. He’ll be looking for a bounceback here in 2024 but will have to do so after a less than ideal start with the injury setbacks.
In the meantime, the Cubs have three rotation spots set for Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. There was going to be a competition for a fifth spot behind those three and Taillon, but it appears there will now be two spots up for grabs for Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski or Javier Assad, at least to start the year. That group would have also included Caleb Kilian but he’s been shut down with a teres major strain.
Wicks is one of the club’s best prospects and he debuted with seven starts last year. Neither his 4.41 ERA nor his 16.3% strikeout rate were especially impressive but he punched out 26.5% of hitters in the minors last year and could be set for a step forward in 2024.
Smyly is a veteran with over a decade in the big leagues but he’s coming off a rough season, as he got bumped to the bullpen and finished the year with an ERA of 5.00. Wesneski was also bumped to the bullpen, and often optioned to Triple-A, finishing last year with a 4.63 ERA. Assad was also in a swing role and had a solid 3.05 ERA on the year, though he may have been lucky to wind up there. His .268 batting average on balls in play and 83.3% strand rate were both on the fortunate side of average, which is why his 4.29 FIP and 4.41 SIERA were a bit less exciting.
Of those four, Wicks is the only one with a Spring Training ERA lower than 6.14 right now, for what that’s worth. Smyly can’t be optioned and the Cubs still owe him $11MM, as he’s making a salary of $8.5MM this year and has a $2.5MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option. That makes him likely to have a roster spot, whether he’s in the rotation or working as a long reliever in the bullpen.
Free agency still features a number of interesting names even though the regular season is getting near, though the Cubs may not have much interest in spending more money on the roster. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest Taillon is slated for a lengthy absence, just that he’s behind schedule by a few weeks right now. The Cubs are also hovering on the competitive balance tax line, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number as just $55K over the $237MM threshold.
They probably don’t want to add to that in order to address what is likely a temporary situation with Taillon. But as Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Michael Lorenzen and others linger in free agency into the middle of March, each pitching injury will lead to speculation about how it affects the markets for those guys. Lucas Giolito, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Sonny Gray and many other notable pitchers around the league are dealing with spring injuries of varying degrees.
Assuming the Cubs stay in house, they will likely need innings this year from each of Wicks, Smyly, Wesneski and Assad. Each club battles injuries over a long season and the Cubs are also reportedly planning to manage Imanaga’s workload as he transitions from the weekly pitching rotation of Japanese baseball to the five-day turns in North American ball.
NL Central Notes: Taillon, Cardinals, Grandal
Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon has yet to make an in-game appearance this spring due to soreness in his calves. That was set to change today as he was poised to make his first start since camp began, though those plans were scuttled when the club scratched Taillon from his start earlier today.
As noted by Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, manager Craig Counsell indicated to reporters that Taillon was dealing with lower back tightness and that the right-hander’s back “locked up” while throwing warm up pitches prior to his scheduled start, though there hasn’t been imaging scheduled for the right-hander and Counsell indicated the club hopes to know more about Taillon’s status tomorrow. Sharma goes on to note that the Cubs are hopeful the issue was just a spasm and that Taillon has dealt with a similar issue previously in his career and that it often subsides after just a few days. Though Chicago is remaining optimistic that the 32-year-old will be able to avoid a trip to the shelf to open the season, the right-hander missing time to open the season would be a blow to the club’s chances in a crowded NL Central division.
Taillon figures to occupy the middle of the club’s rotation this season alongside fellow veteran righty Kyle Hendricks, behind southpaws Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga. The fifth spot in the Cubs’ rotation has not yet been determined but appears likely to go to one of Jordan Wicks, Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and Hayden Wesneski as things stand. Taillon’s four-year deal with the Cubs got off to a rough start last season as he struggled to a 6.90 ERA in his first 13 starts with the club, though he settled in to provide mid-rotation results late in the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.23 ERA across the season’s final three months. [UPDATE: Counsell told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters Sunday that Taillon “came in today pretty much the same as he left yesterday. Probably not the improvement we were hoping for.” While the manager admitted to “a level of concern for Opening Day,” Counsell doesn’t “think it’s a long-term absence for Jameson, so don’t think it’s one of those concerns.”]
More from around the NL Central…
- Cardinals manager Oli Marmol provided a positive update regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray today, as noted by MLB.com’s John Denton. Marmol told reporters that Gray has been able to throw from 120 feet and do agility work without issue in recent days, and could progress to throwing off the mound sometime next week. The 34-year-old veteran is battling a mild hamstring strain that has put his odds of making a start for St. Louis on Opening Day in doubt. While Marmol’s comments regarding Gray today didn’t indicate whether or not the righty will be able to avoid opening the season on the injured list, it’s nonetheless encouraging news for Cardinals fans given the important of Gray to the club’s rotation this year. Gray signed with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal this winter on the heels of a strong 2023 season that saw him finish second to Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young award voting on the back of a sterling 2.79 ERA in 32 starts.
- Sticking with the Cardinals, shortstop-turned-center fielder Tommy Edman recently spoke to reporters (including Denton) regarding his own injuries woes in the wake of reports that he is now doubtful for Opening Day due to wrist issues. It appears as though those concerns are justified, as Denton notes that the switch-hitting Edman has been unable to swing right-handed at all and has not been cleared to face live pitching from either side this spring. That being said, Denton adds that Edman expressed optimism regarding a recent diagnosis, which indicated that the pain in his wrist is “more inflammation than structural.” With fellow outfielder Lars Nootbaar‘s availability also questionable ahead of Opening Day, St. Louis appears likely to turn to one or both of Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson in the outfield alongside Jordan Walker to open the 2024 campaign.
- Pirates manager Derek Shelton spoke to reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) earlier today to announce that veteran catcher Yasmani Grandal is dealing with plantar fasciitis this spring, which has prevented him from catching over the past two weeks. With that said, Shelton appeared to be optimistic about Grandal’s status, noting that the veteran is expected to return to games in the near future. Grandal signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh last month and figures to feature prominently in the club’s catching mix, which also includes Henry Davis, Jason Delay, and Ali Sanchez among options currently on the 40-man roster. Grandal enters the 2024 season in search of a bounceback after struggling badly across his final two seasons with the White Sox, where he slashed just .219/.305/.306 in a combined 217 games.
Caleb Kilian To Miss Several Months Due To Teres Major Strain
Cubs manager Craig Counsell provided members of the media, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, updates on some injured players. Right-hander Caleb Kilian has a teres major strain and will be out for a while, probably not back in game action until around the All-Star break. Infielder Nick Madrigal has a mild right hamstring strain, with his prognosis a bit less clear at the moment. “We’re going to progress him over the next week, and then we’ll have a good idea where we’re at,” Counsell said of Madrigal.
Kilian, 27 in June, came over to the Cubs in the 2021 deadline deal that sent Kris Bryant to the Giants. He was added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster in June of 2022 but has spent most of his time since then on optional assignment. He’s only tossed 16 2/3 major league innings so far, having allowed 23 earned runs in that time.
His results in the minors have naturally been better. He has thrown 231 innings at the Triple-A level over the past two years, with an earned run average of 4.36. He struck out 22.1% of batters faced in that time, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on roughly half the balls in play he allowed.
The righty would have been in competition for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Four starting jobs are accounted for between Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and Jameson Taillon, with the final spot up for grabs between guys like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Ben Brown and Porter Hodge.
Kilian would have been in that battle and, even if he didn’t win the gig, he would have been in Triple-A looking to earn the first call-up when a need arose. But he was experiencing some discomfort and underwent an MRI yesterday, which revealed the bad news. He’ll now be out of action for the next few months and won’t be available to the club until the second half of the season, most likely.
As for Madrigal, he also came into camp fighting for a job. The Cubs have a fairly open competition for time at third base, with Madrigal in the mix alongside Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel, as well as a few others. Madrigal’s current injury doesn’t appear to be severe, but if it lingers into the start of the season, it could open up more playing time for Wisdom or Morel until Madrigal is back to full strength.
Madrigal is a hit-over-power guy who has just four home runs in his 846 major league plate appearances. His 4.6% walk rate is also very low but his tiny 8.9% strikeout rate demonstrates he is one of the toughest hitters in the league to punch out. His career batting line of .280/.328/.354 translates to a wRC+ of 90, indicating he’s been about 10% below league average overall. Last year was his first season playing third base at the big league level, moving from his customary second base spot, but he seems to have made the move swimmingly. He was worth eight Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average in just 560 1/3 innings at the hot corner.
Wisdom and Morel have the opposite profile, as both of them are high-power, high-strikeout bats with questionable defense. The club doesn’t have a true designated hitter, so perhaps they could have used Madrigal at third while deploying one of Morel or Wisdom as the DH, but that won’t be an option if Madrigal misses some time.
Cubs Notes: Tauchman, Imanaga, Taillon
Cubs outfielder Mike Tauchman has had plenty of uncertainty in his career. He’s bounced around from the Rockies to the Yankees and Giants, spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the KBO League and settled for a minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2023. But in 2024, he seems to have a bit more clarity on the path ahead of him. He tells Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that manager Craig Counsell told him at the start of Spring Training that he has already made the team.
‘‘From a personal standpoint, [it’s] given me a little freedom to trial-and-error a couple of things, rather than really focusing on the results, focusing on ‘making the team,’ ’’ Tauchman said. ‘‘Because now it’s about getting ready for March 28 and the subsequent games that we have.’’
Tauchman, now 33, got added to the Cubs’ roster last year when Cody Bellinger was injured but played well enough to stick around even when Bellinger returned. He got into 108 games, drawing a walk in 14% of his 401 plate appearances. His home run total of eight was fairly modest but he was on-base enough to be above average at the plate overall. His .252/.363/.377 slash line translated to a wRC+ of 107. He also stole seven bases and got strong grades for his time on the grass, most of which was in center field. In 584 innings in center, he produced three Defensive Runs Saved and got a +1 from Outs Above Average.
That solid showing was enough for the Cubs to tender him an arbitration contract, with the two sides eventually agreeing to a $1.95MM salary. For part of this offseason, Tauchman may have been seen as the on-paper center fielder between Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong would have been another option but he’s considered a glove-first player, is still shy of his 22nd birthday and has just 47 games played above Double-A.
The Cubs recently re-signed Bellinger and he figures to take the center field job. He also plays first base but it seems like the Cubs will give Michael Busch a chance to take that spot. That will likely leave Tauchman in a fourth outfielder role while Crow-Armstrong gets regular reps in Triple-A. An injury could always change things, with Happ currently dealing with a mild hamstring strain, but Tauchman seems to have a refreshingly secure gig for the time being.
Elsewhere in Cubs’ tidbits, the rotation figures to be an area of focus this year as the club looks to take a step forward after just missing the playoffs last year. Collectively, Cub starters had a 4.26 ERA last year which put them 14th in the majors. Since the club is going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster, improvement in the rotation could be a difference maker.
Marcus Stroman departed via free agency and the club signed Shota Imanaga to take his spot. Imanaga will be looking to make the transition from Japan, where pitchers often throw once a week, to the five-day cycle in North America.
Bruce Levine of 670 The Score relays that the club plans on using off-days and spot starters to help him with the adjustment, which could perhaps lead to some extra starts for optionable depth arms. The club figures to have Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Imanaga in four rotation spots, with one more spot available to Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, Caleb Kilian or Ben Brown.
Everyone in that latter group has options and may start the season in the minors but it sounds like there will be opportunities to make big league appearances as the season rolls along. The occasional spot start will be used to give Imanaga and the other guys a breather and injuries are fairly inevitable for pitchers, which will open other chances.
Taillon will be looking for a bounceback season, as his first campaign with the Cubs wasn’t strong, finishing with a 4.84 ERA. That potential bounceback season is off to a bumpy start, however, as Lee reports that Taillon is dealing with some soreness in both of his calves. That issue doesn’t seem debilitating and he still appears to be on track for Opening Day if he doesn’t experience any setbacks, but it’s a situation worth monitoring over the weeks to come since a return to form for Taillon will be important for the Cubs this year.
NL Central Notes: Happ, Pirates, Liberatore
Cubs left fielder Ian Happ won’t be appearing in games for the time being after he suffered a mild hamstring strain during a game earlier this week, club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Counsell added that the club remains “optimistic” that Happ will be ready for Opening Day, though he added that the 29-year-old will need to get additional reps in before Spring Training comes to a close in order to be ready for the start of the season.
The ninth-overall pick in the 2015 draft, Happ is entering the first year of the three-year, $61MM extension he inked with the Cubs early last season. The switch-hitter has settled in to become one of the club’s most reliable regulars in recent seasons, slashing a solid .259/.351/.435 (119 wRC+) across the past two seasons while earning his first career All Star appearance during the 2022 season and back-to-back Gold Glove awards in left field. In 2023, Happ posted a career-best 22.1% strikeout rate while walking at an impressive 14.3% clip. That strong plate discipline has left Happ as a key piece of the club’s core entering the 2023 season alongside the likes of Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner.
Losing Happ for any amount of time entering the regular season would surely be a blow to the Cubs, though Chicago has plenty of other options for its outfield mix available should their longest-tenured hitter start the season on the shelf. With top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong expected to begin the season at the Triple-A level, the likes of Mike Tauchman and Alexander Canario figure to be the most likely options for a reserve outfield spot with the big league club to open the season currently on the 40-man roster. Veteran left fielder David Peralta is also in camp with the club after signing on a minor league deal last month, with slugging prospect Owen Caissie also among the club’s non-roster invitees.
More from around the NL Central…
- Pirates outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Joshua Palacios have yet to appear this spring after being slowed by injuries entering camp, though manager Derek Shelton recently told reporters (including those at MLB.com) that each figures to see the field at some point in the next week. McCutchen, 37, has been working on defensive drills and taking swings this spring while rehabbing the partially torn achilles that ended his 2023 campaign in early September. The veteran figures to enter the 2024 season penciled in as the club’s regular DH, though he did make occasional appearances in right field last season. Palacios, meanwhile, figures to battle with the likes of Edward Olivares and Connor Joe for playing time in the outfield alongside regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski. The 28-year-old slashed .239/.279/.413 in 91 games with Pittsburgh last year but has been slowed this spring by a lower leg injury.
- Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore spoke to reporters (including Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) recently about his goals for the coming season, and while he indicated that he still hopes to have a future with the club as a starting pitcher at some point, right now his priority is contributing in the majors regardless of his role. Liberatore struggled to a 5.88 ERA in 11 starts for the Cardinals last year but was dominant out of the bullpen, posting a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings of work with a 24.5% strikeout rate. The club’s starting five appears set with Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn all poised to take spots in the rotation, though Liberatore has stretched out as a starter alongside the likes of Zack Thompson with Worthy noting that manager Oli Marmol hasn’t ruled out the possibility of opening the season with a six-man rotation.
MLBTR Podcast: How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger (1:40)
- How did he end up with a short-term deal? (3:35)
- Why would he not take a deal of around six years, $150MM? (5:00)
- Was this about Bellinger’s Statcast metrics? (8:00)
- Would Bellinger have gotten a megadeal in a different winter? (11:15)
- Is there a gulf widening between what superstars can make and what mid-market players can make? (15:55)
- How does the Bellinger deal affect expectations for the other Boras guys? (19:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- We have some brand-name starting pitchers who will be signing contracts after Spring Training games have begun. Historically, how have previous late signings fared after starting their seasons so late? (27:00)
- Does the Aaron Nola deal look terrible in hindsight? In my opinion, he’s not as good as Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and Nola got more than every pitcher except for the Dodgers’ guys. Do the Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodríguez deals look smarter than Nola’s too? (30:30)
- What is the feeling around Juan Soto and where he might be in 2025? I feel like he’s gonna stick with the Yankees but everyone seems to think it’s a one-year location for him. (34:10)
Check out our past episodes!
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities
Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.
There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.
Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:
While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.
The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.
Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.
The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.
Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.
Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.
That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.
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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.
Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.
The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.
Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.
Boras, Hoyer Discuss Bellinger Signing
The Cubs reintroduced Cody Bellinger at a press conference this morning. The two-time All-Star was alongside agent Scott Boras and Chicago president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer to discuss his protracted free agent process (link to the full presser).
At the start of the offseason, few would’ve expected Bellinger settling for a three-year guarantee worth $80MM. His camp began the winter in search of a much larger offer, reportedly seeking upwards of $200MM. Unsurprisingly, no one confirmed the precise contract terms that Bellinger had sought, although the former MVP conceded he initially expected an extended deal.
“Yeah, I think there’s definitely that thought that goes into it,” Bellinger said when asked if he anticipated signing a long-term contract. “Ultimately, that’s the goal. … I talked to Scott continuously to see what was going on. At the end of the day, I’m super excited how it all worked out. Yes, obviously (thought about a longer deal), but I’m very excited with it all and very happy to get going.”
With the offseason nearing an end, it’s clear that teams weren’t going to meet Bellinger’s asking price on that kind of contract. At that point, he moved to the much shorter term with the ability to opt out and retest free agency in either of the next two offseasons. He’ll collect $30MM for the upcoming season. If he repeats his 2023 production, he’ll almost certainly take another swing at a massive contract — this time without a qualifying offer attached and with potentially greater confidence around the league that he has put his dismal 2021-22 campaigns behind him.
Boras suggested that Bellinger was always targeting one of those outcomes: either an especially long-term deal or a short-term pact with opt-outs. “Cody and I agreed that we’re going to look at this in a couple ways. We’re going to have two positive outcomes for this process. … Our dynamic was to determine what it was on the other end with a contract of great length. As we got through that process and looked to it, that’s certainly where we let Jed know that on something like this — with this kind of structure, with this kind of flexibility, with these kinds of things, is what we’re looking for. We had mutual agreement and understanding that this type of structure was agreeable to both of us.”
Bellinger’s youth certainly plays a part in that. He turns 29 in July, leaving open the possibility of seeking another long-term pact next winter. His camp seemed to prefer that to locking in a five- or six-year contract that would’ve guaranteed more than $80MM but wasn’t close to his initial asking price and wouldn’t have allowed him to get back to the market.
The short term with the higher annual salary works well for the Cubs. Bellinger offers cover in both center field and at first base. Chicago had been set to turn to highly-touted but unproven players in Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch at those respective positions. The move pushes the Cubs to a franchise high in terms of player spending.
RosterResource calculates their 2024 payroll around $222MM. They’re at $234MM in estimated luxury tax commitments, just below the $237MM base threshold. It’s probable the Cubs will up end up paying the CBT if they’re as competitive as they hope. Even if this is their final move of the offseason, any salary taken on in midseason acquisitions counts against the CBT on a prorated basis.
Hoyer predictably declined to answer when asked if ownership was willing to pay the luxury tax. He noted that it’s his “expectation” they’ll carry this roster into the season, although he indicated the front office will stay open to opportunities. “Obviously, we’re never going to stop looking. Never put a final nail in that because things come up all the time — trades, free agents. But, it’s the 28th of February, so I think that’s the expectation, though I would never rule anything out.“
Latest On Cubs’ Bullpen Plans
Though Spring Training is underway, this offseason business is ongoing. The Cubs just reached an agreement to bring back Cody Bellinger over the weekend, a three-year, $80MM pact with a couple of opt-outs.
Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic took a look at what could be next for the Cubs and suggested they may be done making notable additions, including in the bullpen. The club had been connected to right-hander Ryne Stanek last month and Sharma reports that the interest was mutual. However, Stanek’s asking price didn’t drop to the point that the Cubs felt it was worth it to bring him aboard and sacrifice some roster flexibility.
The club’s current bullpen projection doesn’t feature a lot of optionable guys. Adbert Alzolay still has one option but he emerged as the club’s closer last year and will certainly be up with the big league club. Then there’s Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr., Julian Merryweather, Drew Smyly and Yency Almonte, all of whom are either out of options or can’t be optioned by virtue of having more than five years of big league service time.
As Sharma points out, clubs generally like to have a couple of optionable guys in the bullpen so that fresh arms can be summoned during the season when the staff is taxed. The Cubs already have five spots taken by guys who can’t be sent down and Alzolay makes six. Stanek is a veteran with over six years of service time, meaning he wouldn’t be able to be optioned either. If they were to add him into the mix, they would have seven of their eight bullpen slots locked up.
Stanek, 32, is coming off a decent three-year run with the Astros. He made 186 appearances over that time with a 2.90 ERA and strong 27% strikeout rate, though a high walk rate of 12.2%. He got that walk rate down to 9.9% last year but his strikeout rate also fell to 23.9%. He’s arguably the best reliever still on the open market but it seems no club has been willing to meet his asking price, including the Cubs. He’s also received interest from the Mets and Red Sox this offseason.
What also might be an issue for the Cubs is the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource lists their CBT number just over $234MM, meaning they are less than $3MM from the base threshold of $237MM. Sharma reports that “there is an understanding that they’re essentially over it” due to inevitable moves that will come over the course of the season. A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, so the Cubs could always change the calculus throughout the year if they want to. But perhaps they would rather stay where they are so that they have some wiggle room to assess things as the season progresses.
Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger is back with the Cubs. Chicago officially announced his re-signing on a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has scheduled a press conference for Wednesday to welcome him back to the fold. Chicago cleared the necessary 40-man roster spot with this afternoon’s trade sending Bailey Horn back to the White Sox.
Bellinger, a client of the Boras Corporation, is reportedly guaranteed $80MM. The deal pays him $30MM for the upcoming season. He’ll have a $30MM salary for 2025 and be paid $20MM if he remains on the contract in 2026. The deal contains an approximate $26.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes.
Bellinger returns to the Cubs after signing a one-year deal with the club last winter and delivering an excellent platform campaign. In 556 trips to the plate, the 28-year-old slashed .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases while splitting time between center field and first base for Chicago. That performance earned Bellinger a Silver Slugger award and a top-10 finish in NL MVP voting and seemingly left him poised to cash in this winter with a major contract. MLBTR ranked Bellinger as the #2 free agent in this year’s class behind only two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, predicting a 12-year, $264MM deal for the outfielder in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list.
As Bellinger’s offseason dragged on, it became apparent a $200MM+ commitment would not be in the cards. In his recent Wednesday mailbag, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a three-year, $90MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. While Bellinger entered the winter with plenty of big market clubs seemingly in the running for his services including the Giants, Yankees, and Blue Jays, each pivoted in other directions throughout the month of December: San Francisco landed KBO star Jung Hoo Lee to patrol center, Juan Soto was shipped to the Bronx to fill the left-handed void in their outfield mix, and the Blue Jays changed course after missing out on Shohei Ohtani to instead focus on smaller deals for players such as Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That left Bellinger with few clear suitors outside of the incumbent Cubs, though his free agency continued into Spring Training as his camp held out for a long term deal while the Cubs and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer remained steadfast in waiting out the market. Ultimately, Chicago was rewarded for its patience, as the club will retain Bellinger’s services for at least the 2024 campaign on a relatively low-cost deal similar to the three-year, $105MM deal fellow Boras Corporation client Carlos Correa signed with the Twins two offseasons ago.
A number of factors beyond his relatively small number of suitors likely contributed to Bellinger signing a short-term deal. Excellent as he was in 2023, the slugger struggled badly while contending with shoulder issues and a fractured fibula during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. Though he managed to take the field for 900 plate appearances across the two seasons, he hit a paltry .193/.256/.355 during that time, a far cry from the career .273/.364/.567 slash line he entered the 2021 season with that earned him Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in 2017 and 2019.
While Bellinger’s 
strong and healthy 2023 campaign certainly helped to assuage the concerns brought on by his dismal campaigns in the prior two seasons, a look at his advanced metrics reveals some cause for concern that the 28-year-old’s 2023 campaign may not be entirely sustainable. While Bellinger’s career-best batting average last season was supported by a career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, it was also propped up by a .319 BABIP that eclipsed his career .277 mark entering the 2023 season by more than 40 points.
That leap in good batted ball fortune came in spite of unusually low contact quality peripherals. Per Statcast, Bellinger’s average exit velocity, barrel rate, and Hard-Hit percentage were all well below average, landing in the 22nd, 27th, and 10th percentile respectively among qualified major leaguers. Taken together, those peripheral numbers left Bellinger with a roughly league average xwOBA of just .330 last year, 40 points below his excellent .370 wOBA. Between his pronounced struggles in recent seasons and the concerning peripherals underlying his 2023 return to form, it’s not a complete shock that Bellinger would land a short-term, opt-out heavy deal that preserves flexibility rather than a lengthy deal that maximizes guarantee.
Such a contract could set Bellinger up for a much more significant payday in the future. As noted by MLBTR’s Steve Adams in his recent look at the possibility of a short-term deal for Bellinger, the slugger is unusually young for a free agent and, as such, may be uniquely suited for a short-term arrangement. If Bellinger can maintain a similar level of production to his 2023 rebound, he’ll be a near lock to opt out of the remaining two years and $50MM on his deal and return to free agency, where he would be marketing his age-29 campaign and be unimpeded by the Qualifying Offer, which the Cubs extended to Bellinger this winter. Next year’s free agent class is also likely to benefit from additional certainty regarding the ongoing Diamond Sports bankruptcy, which has impacted the TV deals of some contenders such as the Rangers and Twins. Those clubs were joined in mostly standing pat by big spending clubs such as the Padres and Mets that faced exorbitant luxury tax bills last year and took this offseason as an opportunity to reset.
In the meantime, Bellinger will return to Chicago, where he immediately improves the club’s lineup and odds of contention in a crowded NL Central dramatically. Bellinger’s 134 wRC+ and .525 slugging led all Cubs hitters with at least 100 trips to the plate last year, while he ranked fourth in terms of on-base percentage. The slugger also provides a much-needed lefty bat to a lineup who complements righty hitters in the lineup such as Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, Christopher Morel, and Nico Hoerner. In addition to providing the club’s lineup with potentially impactful offense, Bellinger’s versatility offers the Cubs flexibility as they look to incorporate their bevy young hitters into the big league lineup on a regular basis.
Infielder Michael Busch is likely to enter the season as the club’s regular first baseman after the club acquired him from the Dodgers in a deal last month, leaving Bellinger to begin the season as the club’s everyday option in center field. With that being said, top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong lurks after making his big league debut last September and sports 80-grade defense in center field. The club’s reunion with Bellinger takes pressure off Crow-Armstrong, who went hitless in 19 plate appearances during his cup of coffee last fall, to immediately produce at the big league level and allows the Cubs to continue his development at Triple-A to open the year.
Should Crow-Armstrong prove himself ready to take on the everyday job in center sometime this season, Bellinger could shift to an outfield corner, first base, or even DH depending on the health and production of the rest of the lineup. One possibility for the Cubs would be either Busch or Morel establishing themselves as a capable defender at third base, allowing the other to handle DH duties. In that case, Bellinger would be able to move to first base and make room for Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in center, though that’s just one possible option for a Cubs team that could even see 2023 first-round Matt Shaw or top corner outfield prospect Owen Caissie debut sometime this year after strong performances in Double-A last season.
The reunion with Bellinger likely serves as a capstone for an offseason that saw Chicago also land left-hander Shota Imanaga and veteran relief arm Hector Neris in free agency. Club chairman Tom Ricketts recently indicated that the club was unlikely to exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold this winter, and RosterResource projects the club for a $234MM payroll in 2024 for CBT purposes, less than $3MM below the first $237MM threshold. That means a reversal of the stance would be nearly mandatory for the club to make further additions this winter, barring a trade that clears salary elsewhere on the roster.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Cubs and Bellinger had agreed to a three-year, $80MM contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.