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2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2017 at 5:57pm CDT

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

  • Danny Duffy, Royals: $8MM versus $7.25MM (Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, via Twitter)
  • Tony Watson, Pirates: $6MM versus $5.6MM (Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, via Twitter)
  • Pedro Strop, Cubs: $6MM versus $4.6MM (Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, via Twitter)
  • Drew Pomeranz, Red Sox: $5.7MM versus $3.6MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Kelvin Herrera, Royals: $5.6MM versus $5.05MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks: $5.1MM versus $4.7MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Khris Davis, Athletics: $5MM versus $4.65MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
  • Dellin Betances, Yankees: $5MM versus $3MM (Heyman, via Twitter)
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates Danny Duffy Dellin Betances Drew Pomeranz Kelvin Herrera Khris Davis Pedro Strop Shelby Miller Tony Watson

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Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Jake Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2017 at 3:58pm CDT

The Cubs have agreed on a salary to avoid arbitration with star righty Jake Arrieta, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll receive $15.6375MM in his final trip through the arb process.

MLBTR’s model had projected Arrieta to earn $16.8MM, but as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained recently, it seemed likelier that he’d land closer to the $16MM level when analyzing comps. The deal exceeds the $15.525MM contract reached by Max Scherzer and the Tigers before the 2014 season, though unsurprisingly Arrieta comes nowhere near the year-over-year raise achieved that year by Scherzer.

It remains unclear whether Chicago will be able to work out a longer-term arrangement with the talented righty, who is now 30 years of age. He didn’t come anywhere near repeating his 2015 Cy Young campaign in his most recent season, but Arrieta still turned in a productive year. Over 197 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Jake Arrieta

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Greg Holland Seeks Two-Year Deal With Opt-Out

By Jeff Todd | January 11, 2017 at 8:54am CDT

Free-agent righty Greg Holland is arguably the highest-upside reliever left on the open market, and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides some notable updates on his situation. The 31-year-old is in a somewhat unusual spot as a free agent, in that he brings a sparkling track record but is also seeking to return from a long layoff due to Tommy John surgery.

Given his health situation and also the evident interest around the league, Holland seeks a two-year deal that would allow him to opt out after the first season, according to Heyman. That’s the same structure that Brian Wilson landed with the Dodgers before the 2014 season, though he had made it back to the hill late in the prior campaign.

In Holland’s case, there’s perhaps greater uncertainty, but also greater upside. He took a step back in his most recent action, in 2015, but that may well have been due to the elbow issues that led to his surgery. Over the prior four campaigns, Holland was one of the game’s very best relievers, as he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

There’s interest in Holland’s proposed two-year arrangement, per the report. Among the teams still pursuing him are the Dodgers, Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Rays. While the Cubs showed prior interest, it’s not clear whether they are still in. And the Royals have also indicated a desire to bring back their former closer, though it seems that the team’s payroll situation may not allow for a competitive bid.

That group of organizations would presumably offer Holland a variety of possible roles. The Nationals, Rockies, Brewers, Reds, and Royals (if they’re involved) could all promise him first dibs on closing roles, while the Dodgers and perhaps the Cubs are more likely to view the veteran as a setup man. Tampa Bay, perhaps, might be most interested in the event that it strikes a deal for incumbent closer Alex Colome. Whether and to what extent the chance to take hold of the ninth is an important factor in Holland’s decisionmaking is not immediately clear.

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Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/17

By Steve Adams | January 9, 2017 at 9:17am CDT

Some minor moves from around baseball to kick off the week…

  • KBO’s Lotte Giants have re-signed left-hander Brooks Raley and signed second baseman/third baseman Andy Burns out of the Blue Jays organization, per Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. Raley will receive $850K to return for his third season, while Burns will be venturing overseas for the first time in his career. Raley, 28, pitched 38 1/3 innings with the Cubs from 2012-13 and spent time in the Twins and Angels organizations after being claimed off waivers following that stint. Raley has turned in a 4.06 ERA while averaging 175 innings, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in the past two seasons with Lotte. As for Burns, the 26-year-old made his MLB debut last season but tallied just seven plate appearances in Toronto. He’s a career .263/.320/.363 hitter in 237 contests at the Triple-A level.
  • The Pirates announced a list of non-roster invites this morning, which includes former Rockies catcher Jackson Williams. The 30-year-old saw brief action with the Rox from 2014-15 (30 plate appearances) and has batted .232/.303/.356 in just over 1200 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s halted 36 percent of stolen base attempts against him in his minor league career and draws average to slightly below-average marks in terms of pitch framing, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Former Cardinals/White Sox right-hander Maikel Cleto has signed a minors pact with the Cubs, as his representatives at Jackson Management Group noted, on Twitter. The hard-throwing 27-year-old’s last MLB work came with the ChiSox in 2014 and resulted in a 4.60 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against an unsightly 7.1 BB/9. Cleto averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball that year and doesn’t have difficulty missing bats (10.1 K/9 in his Triple-A career), but walks have been a persistent issue for him in the Majors and in the minors. He split the 2016 season between the Mexican League and the Braves organization. In 21 innings with Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.14 ERA with 31 strikeouts against 13 walks.
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Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2017 at 10:10am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Jake Arrieta enters his third and final year of arbitration this winter with a hefty $10.7MM base salary following his 2015 Cy Young Award season. While his 2016 campaign was less stellar, Arrieta still posted a very respectable 3.10 ERA in 197.1 innings, along with an 18-8 record and 190 strikeouts. As a result, my model projects him to get a $6.1MM raise and earn $16.8MM for 2017.

Finding comparable pitchers to Arrieta’s platform season is tricky. His $6.1MM raise would be the second-highest ever for a third-year eligible starting pitcher — Max Scherzer got an $8.8MM raise after his Cy Young Award-winning season three years ago. Scherzer’s 21-3 record, 2.90 ERA, 214.1 innings and 240 strikeouts (plus the Cy Young Award itself) combine to put an obvious ceiling above Arrieta. There is no way Arrieta is going to get anywhere near Scherzer’s $8.8MM raise, but where the Cubs ace falls below that number is difficult to discern.

Aside from Scherzer, the next highest raise in this service class (excluding the anomalous and stale case of Carlos Zambrano in 2007) belongs to Jeff Samardzija, who got a $4.46MM raise in 2015.  Samardzija posted just a 7-13 record that season, but with a 2.99 ERA in 219.2 innings to go along with 202 strikeouts. While Arrieta’s 2016 season fell twenty innings short of Samardzija’s 2014, Arrieta’s 11 extra wins suggest he should easily top Samardzija’s raise.

Doug Fister in the 2014-15 offseason could be an interesting comparable because his win total is more applicable to Arrieta’s case. Fister received a $4.2MM raise after winning 16 games in 2014.  Fister’s 2.41 ERA bested Arrieta’s mark from this past season, though Arrieta significantly outpaced Fister in innings (197.1 to 164) and strikeouts (190 to 98).  Alfredo Simon got a $4.05MM raise that same year with 15 wins and 196.1 innings, but his 3.44 ERA is less impressive than Arrieta’s, and his 127 strikeouts are far weaker too.

One plausible comparable could be Justin Masterson, who got a $4.07MM raise after a strong 2013 campaign — 14-10 record, 3.45 ERA, and 195 strikeouts in 193 IP.  While the innings and strikeouts are a reasonable comparison, the record and ERA are clearly a step behind Arrieta.

Overall, we see a very obvious ceiling at $8.8MM with Scherzer way above Arrieta, and a series of pitchers in the low $4MM-raise range that clearly represent a floor. Where Arrieta lands is a mystery, but it would surprise me if he achieved the $6.1MM raise as projected by the model. I think a $5MM raise makes a lot of sense based on these comparables, and maybe $5.5MM since he clearly has a much better case than all of the $4MM-raise pitchers, though $6.1 million seems a little too high. Look for Arrieta to land somewhere closer to $16MM in 2017 than the nearly $17MM the model expects.

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Minor MLB Transactions: 1/7/17

By charliewilmoth | January 7, 2017 at 5:52pm CDT

Baseball America’s Matt Eddy has released a long list of minor transactions from over the holidays. Here are a few of the bigger moves from that list not already noted elsewhere on MLBTR (we’ll also keep track of additional minor moves from Saturday as they happen):

  • The Brewers have signed first baseman Cody Decker to a minor league deal, tweets Tommy Stokke of FanRag. The pact doesn’t include an invitation to big league camp, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Decker announced (via Twitter) that he’ll move to catcher, where he has seen action in 23 games during parts of eight minor league seasons. The 29-year-old has slashed an impressive .255/.333/.501 in 1,498 Triple-A plate appearances, though he has only logged eight PAs in the majors (with San Diego in 2015).
  • The Cubs have signed catcher Carlos Corporan and re-signed infielder Munenori Kawasaki to minor league contracts. Corporan spent several years as a backup in Houston and last appeared in the Majors in 2015 with Texas; he hit .197/.246/.333 at two Triple-A stops in 2016. The 35-year-old Kawasaki played briefly for the Cubs last season and spent most of the year playing shortstop with Triple-A Iowa, where he batted .255/.352/.312. The popular former Blue Jays infielder has now appeared in parts of five seasons in the big leagues, as well as 11 in Japan.
  • The Red Sox have signed outfielder Brian Bogusevic to a minor league deal. The 32-year-old had a tough season with Orix in Japan in 2016, batting just .187/.320/.322 over 193 plate appearances. He last appeared in the big leagues with the Phillies in 2015.
  • The White Sox have released hard-throwing righty Jorge Rondon so that he can sign with Chunichi in Japan. They had previously signed him to a minor league deal after he posted a 2.67 ERA, 5.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 pitching in the bullpen of the Pirates’ Triple-A Indianapolis bullpen in 2016.
  • The Angels have re-signed lefty reliever Cody Ege to a minor league deal. They had previously non-tendered him even though he had far less than three years of service time and was very effective in 8 2/3 innings for them last season, although he struggled in three innings with the Marlins and posted a modest 4.50 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9 in 44 innings at Triple-A.
  • The Phillies have signed righty reliever Pedro Beato to a minor league deal. The 30-year-old Beato was very effective for Triple-A Norfolk in 2016, with a 2.65 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 68 innings (although he allowed nine unearned runs). He’s pitched in the big leagues for three teams, but hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2014 and hasn’t logged significant time since he was a Met in 2011.
  • The Nationals have signed reliever lefty Josh Outman to a minor league deal. The 32-year-old last pitched in the big leagues in 2014, when he appeared with the Indians and Yankees. He posted a 4.95 ERA, albeit with 6.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, in 20 innings with Indianapolis in 2016 before being released.
  • The Tigers have signed first baseman Efren Navarro to a minor league deal. The 30-year-old batted .275/.337/.368 at two Triple-A stops in 2016. He’s appeared in parts of four big-league seasons, all with Anaheim.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Transactions Washington Nationals Brian Bogusevic Carlos Corporan Cody Decker Cody Ege Efren Navarro Jorge Rondon Josh Outman Munenori Kawasaki Pedro Beato

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Latest On Cubs’ Search For Rotation Depth

By Steve Adams | January 5, 2017 at 1:39pm CDT

The Cubs intend to deploy a six-man rotation at times throughout the life of the 2017 season as they look to lessen the workload of a rotation that shouldered a considerable burden in the postseason, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Chicago’s interest in right-hander Tyson Ross — Sherman, like Yahoo’s Jeff Passan and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal, calls the Cubs a finalist for Ross — is tied to this thinking. However, he adds that even if Ross ultimately signs elsewhere, the Cubs will pursue additional rotation depth to ease the workload on its current starters.

As it stands, the Cubs project to have Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Mike Montgomery in their Opening Day rotation. Arrieta had never thrown more than 170 innings in a full season (between the Majors and minors) prior to joining the Cubs, but he’s now thrown 468 1/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs in each of the past two seasons. Lester, similarly, has taken on a high workload, tallying 457 1/3 frames between the postseason and regular season dating back to 2015. Hendricks, meanwhile, posted a career-high 190 regular-season innings and added 25 1/3 more in the playoffs, bringing his year-long total to 215 1/3 (up from his previous high of 180). Significant workloads are nothing new for Lackey, but the grizzled vet is now 38 years old and missed a couple of weeks with a shoulder strain late in the season.

If the Cubs aren’t able to land Ross, Sherman writes that Chicago could look to bring Travis Wood back into the fold as a swingman and spot starter. Wood obviously brings plenty of familiarity to the Cubs, having spent the past five seasons with the team. Wood was pushed out of the Cubs’ rotation after a rough 2014 season and poor start to 2015, but he did throw 200 very good innings for Chicago in 2013 and average 30 starts per year from 2012-14. From my vantage point, he’d be an interesting option as a starter for teams with more clear-cut rotation vacancies, though perhaps a return to the reigning World Series champs would outweigh the opportunity to have a definitive rotation job elsewhere. Sherman notes that Rule 5 lefty Caleb Smith (selected out of the Yankees organization by the Brewers and traded to Chicago) also intrigues the Cubs and may get a look in a swingman role this spring.

If Chicago wants to look elsewhere for someone to fill that role, there are a number of options remaining on the market with recent starting and relief experience. Yusmeiro Petit, old friend Scott Feldman, Vance Worley, Dillon Gee and Jorge De La Rosa are just a few low-cost options that could potentially fit the bill. Jason Hammel, whose option whose market has surprisingly not developed much after Chicago bought out his option, makes some logical sense as a candidate to return if he’s willing to accept a one-year offer (at a higher rate than the other listed names). And, of course, the trade market can never be ruled out. (It is, after all, where the Cubs procured Montgomery this past July.)

Ross brings the most upside of the free agents, but one has to wonder his thoughts on potentially being in a six-man rotation as opposed to receiving the opportunity to rebuild his stock by taking the ball every fifth day. Then again, as mentioned with regard to Wood, the notion of pitching for a clear-cut World Series contender carries allure for any free agent.

The Cubs’ desire to incorporate a sixth starter with more regularity isn’t exactly new. Manager Joe Maddon utilized Montgomery as a starter late in the season last year and has voiced a belief that more teams will begin to look to six-man rotations in the season’s second half in the years to come (as the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales wrote last September). While the April schedule will present plenty of off-days and allow the Cubs to organically incorporate some extra rest into their starters’ schedules, that luxury is long gone by midseason as many teams deal with pitching injuries both minor and major.

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Rangers, Cubs, Nationals Pursuing Tyson Ross

By Steve Adams | January 5, 2017 at 11:30am CDT

11:30am: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the Nationals, too, covet Ross but are considered a “long shot” to land his services. Joe Ross, Tyson’s younger brother, is currently penciled into the Nationals’ rotation, so there’s some appeal beyond financial incentive for Tyson to ponder a match with the Nats. Then again, Washington also lacks a clear spot in the rotation for him. In addition to the younger Ross brother, the Nats project to utilize Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez in their starting five next season (though Gonzalez has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate at various times this winter).

10:25am: A deal between the Rangers and Ross was not close as of last night, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Ross did meet with the Rangers yesterday, and the team considers him the best available starting pitcher in free agency, per Wilson. However, the Rangers aren’t expecting Ross to be ready to open the season and aren’t likely to offer anything beyond a one-year deal.

JAN. 5, 7:20am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that Ross also met with the Cubs shortly before yesterday’s meeting with Texas (Twitter link). The Rangers and Cubs are considered the two favorites to sign the right-hander, according to Passan.

Presumably, once Ross is healthy enough to take the mound, he would push left-hander Mike Montgomery from the fifth spot in the rotation back to the bullpen. That’d give the Cubs a rotation consisting of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Ross, with Montgomery standing as the first line of defense in the event of an injury.

While there’s certainly plenty about Montgomery that makes him an intriguing rotation candidate, he’s undeniably had more success in the bullpen to this point in his career. In 125 2/3 innings out of the rotation, the former top prospect has a 4.23 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 52.8 percent ground-ball rate. In 65 2/3 innings of relief work, though, he’s logged a pristine 2.10 earned run average to go along with 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 58.9 percent ground-ball rate.

Looking beyond the pure numbers, the Cubs also have a clear need for some additional left-handed relief. As it stands, Brian Duensing, Caleb Smith and Rob Zastryzny are the top candidates to serve as southpaw options out of manager Joe Maddon’s bullpen.

JAN. 4, 4:00pm: Ross is visiting the Rangers today, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Per Heyman, Ross is still choosing among six potential suitors, though he’s getting closer to making a decision.

3:54pm: Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that Ross’ asking price has dropped since the Winter Meetings, and talks are indeed advancing between Ross’ camp and the Rangers.

3:50pm: The Rangers are being aggressive in their pursuit of free-agent righty Tyson Ross as they try to strike up a deal, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (on Twitter). Talks between the two sides “are definitely heating up,” Sullivan adds, further noting that the Rangers “really like” Ross.

[Related: Texas Rangers Depth Chart]

Ross, 30 in April, didn’t pitch last season after Opening Day as he battled ongoing shoulder problems that culminated in surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome. Not wishing to pay him a repeat of last year’s $9.6MM salary, the Padres cut bait on Ross and non-tendered him, though they were said to be amenable to negotiating a return with a lower guarantee. Ross, however, has reportedly been seeking a comparable $9-11MM on a one-year deal in free agency (before incentives), and roughly two-thirds of the league has expressed some level of interest.

The reason for that widespread interest isn’t difficult to see. While Ross undoubtedly represents a roll of the metaphorical dice given his recent surgery, he’s expected to be ready at or near the beginning of the season and was one of the National League’s better all-around performers on the mound in the years leading up to his injury. From 2013-15, Ross totaled 516 2/3 innings for the Padres, working to a 3.07 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a gaudy 58.2 percent ground-ball rate.

The Rangers, as it stands, project to trot out Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, Andrew Cashner and A.J. Griffin in their 2017 rotation. However, Cashner is coming off a dismal season split between the Padres and Marlins, while Griffin was a non-tender candidate himself (5.07 ERA in 119 innings in 2016) but was retained quite possibly due to what is expected to be a low price tag in arbitration. There’s no guarantee, of course, that Ross will be ready to begin the season, though it stands to reason that he’d bump Griffin out of the starting mix when he’s ultimately ready to pitch at the Major League level. That could push Griffin to long relief, though his projected $1.9MM salary is perfectly reasonable for a pitcher in that role.

In addition to the Rangers and Padres, the Cubs, Pirates, Twins, Mariners, Giants and Indians have all been connected to Ross to varying extents over the course of the winter thus far.

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3 Remaining Needs: NL Central

By charliewilmoth | January 1, 2017 at 7:48pm CDT

To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.

So far, we’ve checked in on the AL Central, NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the NL Central, a division featuring the World Series-winning Cubs:

Chicago Cubs

  • Negotiate with Jake Arrieta. The Cubs appear set to try to negotiate a deal with their star righty this month after the two sides swap arbitration figures. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd noted this week, it’s hard to assess the Cubs’ chances of extending Arrieta, or what kind of money he should ultimately get after a good, but still disappointing, 2016 season. Negotiations between the Cubs and Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, will be an important story line in Wrigleyville over the next few weeks. And even if there’s no extension, expect to see at least a couple interesting Arrieta-related headlines — he’s projected to make $16.8MM through arbitration in 2017, so even arriving at a one-year salary will be a relatively high-stakes endeavor.
  • Keep an eye out for starting pitching help. The Cubs’ roster is extraordinarily talented and deep, so much of what we’ve heard about the team since their swap of Jorge Soler for Wade Davis and their signing of Koji Uehara has pertained to potential role players. One name who’s repeatedly come up has been that of Tyson Ross, who (as MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed out in a recent chat) would be an interesting fit with the Cubs in that the team’s depth would give him the luxury of taking his time returning from shoulder injury, then providing rotation help once fully healthy. In any case, the Cubs could still perhaps use a bit more starting pitching, although options like Rob Zastryzny, Aaron Brooks and Jake Buchanan do give them a variety of palatable spot starters.
  • Consider adding a bit more left-handed relief. The Cubs have a heavily right-handed bullpen (with veteran Brian Duensing, waiver claim David Rollins, Rule 5 pick Caleb Smith and Jack Leathersich topping their current list of lefty relief options), so they could consider adding a lefty as a late-offseason move. They’ve been connected to Justin Wilson of the Tigers, and they could also make a move to bump lefty Mike Montgomery from the rotation back to the bullpen. Of course, the idea that lefty relief is a serious need for the Cubs is already nit-picking — they do already have a sufficient quantity of lefties, and their excellent group of righty relievers somewhat mitigates the need for southpaws, particularly since newcomer Uehara is very tough on lefty batters.

Cincinnati Reds

  1. Add pitching help. The Reds haven’t signed a single player to a big-league deal to this point in the offseason, which isn’t necessarily surprising — as a rebuilding club, they shouldn’t feel an urgent need to make short-term upgrades, and they might get better deals on helpful players later in the winter anyway. Last week, MLBTR’s Steve Adams and Jeff Todd looked at big-league free agent pitchers the Reds could pursue, focusing in large part on the Reds’ open closer role, which could provide an opportunity both for interested free agents (who might be able to establish or reestablish themselves as closers in Cincinnati) and for the team (which might be able to deal relievers they sign this winter at next year’s deadline).
  2. Find opportunities for young players. The Reds’ projected 25-man roster still includes a variety of veterans. The team hasn’t been able to strike deals this offseason, though, in part because those veterans either have no-trade protection or aren’t in high demand. For 2017, that leaves them in somewhat of an awkward position, particularly in their middle infield, where they have prospects Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera ready for playing time and veterans Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart blocking them. Phillips, of course, is one of those veterans with a no-trade clause. The Reds might not make any moves before the start of the season to deal with their middle-infield issue, but they’ll have to deal with it one way or another, perhaps by getting creative with various infielders’ playing time. Peraza could also occasionally play center field.
  3. Acquire more catching depth. The Reds have identified catching depth as an area of need — Devin Mesoraco has struggled to stay healthy in the past two seasons, and the team doesn’t have enough help behind Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart. Rule 5 pick Stuart Turner is another possibility, but he has a limited offensive track record and has never played above Double-A.

Milwaukee Brewers

  1. Add power. Assessing what the Brewers perceive their needs to be at this point is difficult, since they’ve been relatively quiet since the Winter Meetings and they don’t figure to contend in 2017. One area where they might have an opportunity, though, is in adding power to their lineup. First base is mostly open for them after they non-tendered Chris Carter, and their string of veteran trades leaves them with what should be plenty of money available to add a bat. The team did sign Eric Thames for a relatively substantial $16MM guarantee earlier in the offseason, and Thames currently tops their depth chart at first. Thames, though, can also play outfield, and the team’s relative uncertainty in the corners (where they have trade candidate Ryan Braun and the interesting but still unproven Domingo Santana) could clear space for Thames to move around. Meanwhile, the glut of power bats remaining on the free agent market (including Carter and many others) could give the Brewers an opportunity to add someone who could potentially contribute in 2017 and possibly fetch a prospect in a trade next summer.
  2. Continue evaluating Braun’s market. The Brewers and Dodgers reportedly discussed a deal last summer that would have sent Braun to Los Angeles for a package that included Yasiel Puig, but Braun’s market has been relatively quiet this winter. Now, the same market conditions mentioned in the previous bullet might have an impact on Braun’s market. There have also been whispers that Braun’s large contract and PED history might be problems as well. Regardless, with much of the Brewers’ previous core already having departed, there’s little reason for the Brewers not to investigate potential trades involving Braun.
  3. Create competition. The Brewers likely won’t be competitive in 2017, but they’ve already acquired a fair amount of interesting talent in their rebuild, and they have plenty of flexibility heading into the near future. With that in mind, they’ve added a number of marginal players this offseason, including catcher Jett Bandy, infielder Eric Sogard, and pitchers Tommy Milone, Ryan Webb and Andy Oliver. The moves that landed those players weren’t glamorous, but they’ll help give the Brewers depth they’ll need to get through 162 games, while also limiting the possibility of disaster should players further up the depth chart struggle.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  1. Consider continuing to add starting pitching. The Pirates made a big move to steady a wobbly rotation when they re-signed Ivan Nova late last month. Still, the team could use a bit more pitching help, as it currently figures to be heavily reliant on youngsters behind Gerrit Cole and Nova. The Pirates have been connected to White Sox star Jose Quintana, who certainly would be a big step forward. Beyond that, GM Neal Huntington has been outwardly noncommittal about the possibility of further additions, noting that he is open to bringing in more pitching but adding that “we like the group as is,” via Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  2. Balance the bullpen. With the recent addition of Daniel Hudson to a group that already included Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, Juan Nicasio, Antonio Bastardo, A.J. Schugel, Jared Hughes and others, the Pirates have what appears to be a decent group of relievers. That group, however, is heavily left-handed, with Watson, Rivero, Bastardo, Wade LeBlanc and Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb all pitching from the left side. Watson’s name has come up in trade rumors this offseason, and either he or Bastardo look like reasonable candidates to be dealt, partially to get value from them but also partially to clear space for more right-handed relief help.
  3.  Figure out whether Andrew McCutchen stays or goes. Following the collapse of trade negotiations with the Nationals, Huntington said the Pirates were likely to keep their star center fielder. Rumblings surrounding McCutchen have continued, albeit in more muted form, over the past several weeks, however. There’s also the question of what position he’ll play in 2017, as there have been various reports about the likelihood that the Pirates will move him to a corner after he posted poor defensive numbers in center in 2016.

St. Louis Cardinals

  1. Figure out who’s on second. The latest Cardinals-related rumors have connected them to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. While Dozier would undoubtedly help almost any team, though, most indications have been that the Cardinals’ interest in striking a deal with Minnesota isn’t particularly strong. Cardinals brass have also strongly praised Kolten Wong, who is signed through 2020 with an option for 2021 and who currently appears unlikely to be traded elsewhere.
  2. Consider extending Carlos Martinez. As of October, both Martinez and the Cardinals reportedly had interest in extension, and as Jeff noted last week, deal discussions could happen in the coming weeks as the two sides discuss Martinez’s pending arbitration case. The 25-year-old’s youth, blistering fastball and strong performances the last two seasons figure to make him a player well worth keeping, if the right deal can be found.
  3. Consider adding another outfielder. The Cardinals have a perfectly good starting outfield of Randal Grichuk, Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty. But as Viva El Birdos’ Ben Markham recently pointed out, the team’s fourth outfielder, Tommy Pham, has struggled to stay healthy, and the team doesn’t have great depth beyond that. As Markham notes, Brandon Moss is probably the best outfielder available who could conceivably sign as a backup, and Moss is a lefty hitter who could complement righties Grichuk and Piscotty in the corners.
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Quick Hits: Rizzo, Red Sox, Marlins, Orioles

By Steve Adams | December 28, 2016 at 11:05pm CDT

Mike Piellucci of VICE Sports spoke to Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and former Padres GM Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP with the Dodgers) about the 2011 trade that sent Anthony Rizzo and minor league pitcher Zach Cates from San Diego in exchange for right-hander Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Hoyer explains to Piellucci that his immediate thought upon hearing that the Padres had acquired Yonder Alonso (then one of the game’s top overall prospects) from the Reds was that Rizzo could be available. Hoyer expected significant competition, but Byrnes tells Piellucci that there wasn’t an aggressive market for Rizzo following his 2011 debut, during which he batted just .141/.281/.242. Per Byrnes, the Padres felt that Rizzo’s best assets could be dampened by the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Cashner was an appealing young arm himself at the time and pitched quite well in 2013-14 for San Diego (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings), but his injuries and inconsistencies went on to make the swap one of the most lopsided-looking trades in recent history, even if one can see the reasoning behind it. As Piellucci notes, the potential for one team to come away looking especially bad is why prospect-for-prospect “challenge” trades of this nature happen so rarely. I’d highly recommend reading the column in its entirety, even for non-Cubs and non-Padres fans.

A few more notes from around the league…

  • The Red Sox lack sufficient depth to safeguard them from injuries to their position players, opines WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. While jack of all trades Brock Holt can serve as a safety net at a number of positions, he’s not exactly an offensive force. Beyond him, the top outfield alternative following an injury would be Bryce Brentz, who hasn’t excelled at Triple-A or in the Majors. Sam Travis represents an option for some power at first base/DH if needed, but he’s coming off a torn ACL. Elsewhere in the infield, Marco Hernandez and Deven Marrero both represent largely unproven options. Beyond those names, Boston’s top alternatives might be Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, neither of whom has had any recent success, even in the minor leagues. Bradford notes that the Red Sox are still monitoring the free-agent market and adds Adam Rosales’ name to the previously reported Trevor Plouffe as depth options. Certainly, Boston has options in Brentz, Hernandez, Marrero, etc., but I’d agree with Bradford’s general assessment that some additional depth to beef up the bench would be in the club’s best interest.
  • Though Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill recently suggested that adding a right-handed platoon option for Justin Bour at first base isn’t a priority, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the team is still likely to add such a player. Miami isn’t closed off to the idea of re-signing Chris Johnson despite the veteran’s struggles in 2016, he notes. They’ve also checked in on some bigger fish (terrible pun intended — my apologies) like Mike Napoli, but that type of move isn’t considered likely, and Miami is not pursuing Napoli at this time. (Napoli is instead reportedly working on a two-year deal with the Rangers.) Bour will get some more looks against lefties this year, but he hasn’t hit them at all in his brief MLB chances (110 plate appearances, .221/.273/.291 slash, zero homers). Jackson notes that J.T. Realmuto will see some time at first base in 2017 on days when A.J. Ellis starts behind the plate (presumably against lefties). From my vantage point, both Adam Rosales and Trevor Plouffe make quite a bit of sense for the Marlins in that capacity.
  • The Orioles are maintaining interest in free agent outfielders Michael Saunders, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan and Michael Bourn, writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Among internal candidates, Dariel Alvarez is a candidate to get one last chance to convince the O’s he can be a productive Major Leaguer, but he’s also a candidate to come off the 40-man roster should the Orioles sign someone from outside the organization, Kubatko adds. Alvarez hit .288/.324/.384 with four homers in 560 plate appearances as a 27-year-old at Triple-A this past season but has had a strong showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. Signed out of Cuba back in 2013, Alvarez has an underwhelming .725 OPS in parts of three Triple-A seasons, though Kubatko notes that the Orioles continue to be intrigued by his “plus-plus arm.”
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