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Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello Win Cy Young Awards

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Max Scherzer of the Nationals and Rick Porcello of the Red Sox have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight.

That’s the second time the 32-year-old has taken home the hardware, though his prior award came in the American League (in 2013, with the Tigers). Scherzer led the N.L. with 228 1/3 innings, twenty wins, and a 0.968 WHIP. He ended the year with 2.96 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9.

That showing was good enough to beat out Cubs hurlers Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks — who finished second and third, respectively. Scherzer ended up with 25 of the 30 first-place votes, reflecting a strong consensus, but in truth it was a widespread field full of worthwhile contenders. That includes the absurdly dominant Clayton Kershaw, who probably would have run away with the award had he not missed a dozen starts due to injury, and the dearly departed Jose Fernandez, who garnered down-ballot consideration after a dominant season that ended in tragedy.

Porcello’s win came over fellow finalists Justin Verlander of the Tigers and Corey Kluber of the Indians. All were worthy contenders in a year in which nobody put up a truly dominant year. The best A.L. pitchers on a rate basis was reliever Zach Britton, who managed a fourth-place finish despite the innings limitations inherent to his job.

The vote came with its share of controversy. Verlander received 14 of the 30 available first-place votes, but narrowly missed the award when he was left off of two ballots altogether. The 33-year-old threw 227 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball, with 10.0 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9, whereas Porcello racked up 223 frames of 3.15 ERA pitching on the back of 7.6 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9. The difference, perhaps, was that the ultimate victor managed a sparkling 22-4 win-loss record, whereas Verlander carried a less notable 16-and-9 mark.

Dexter Fowler To Reject Qualifying Offer

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Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler will reject the team’s one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offer, writes FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (he also previously tweeted the news). Fowler has been widely expected to do just that despite the problems he faced after rejecting a QO from Chicago last winter, as he even said himself recently on ESPN’s Sportscenter that he would be a free agent again this offseason.

Dexter Fowler

Fowler, 31 in March, had a career year at the plate, hitting .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases — providing well-rounded value in every facet of his offensive game. As the switch-hitter himself told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last month, though, it was questions about his glove that led to skepticism over Fowler’s value and ultimately prompted him to linger on the free agent market. As Fowler explained in that interview, he altered his positioning in center field, believing himself to be playing too shallow (the Cubs agreed), and the results manifested in both his Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved marks. Both metrics graded him as one run above average, which isn’t a ringing endorsement but is a significant step forward for a player who had delivered negative ratings in each of the five previous years.

Of course, if Fowler is an average or even slightly below average center fielder, he could probably perform well in either corner outfield slot, and there are undoubtedly teams that would like to see him in either left field or right field (and atop their lineup) in 2017. His reported near-deal with the Orioles last February, for instance, would’ve sent Fowler to right field, and the market will surely present similar opportunities this winter as well. Fowler, though, has considerably less competition on the free agent market for outfielders this time around and is also coming off a better all-around season in terms of offense, defense and baserunning (he rated as MLB’s eighth-best baserunner in 2016, per Fangraphs’ BsR metric).

While the Cubs would probably love to have Fowler back on a short-term deal once again — they could sort the subsequent outfield logjam via offseason trades and platoons in 2017 — the market should present a considerably better offer for Fowler this time around. On paper, he makes sense for any number of teams, including the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners, Rangers and Athletics, among others. While not all of those teams will have interest in Fowler at the price he could command, interest should still be great enough that he’ll land the payday that eluded him last winter. MLBTR rated him sixth on our top 50 free agent list and pegged him for a four-year, $64MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Ross, D’Backs, Black, Int’l Draft, Cubs

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David Ross’ pursuit of another World Series ring in his final season was one of the many great subplots of the Cubs’ championship run, and now the veteran catcher is adjusting to retirement, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes.  “There hasn’t been a big lull for me.  I ended it the best way I could,” Ross said.  “It’s a storybook and a dream.  I was saying to my wife, ’This offseason’ — and she said, ’It’s no more the offseason; this is life.’”  The widely-respected Ross has often been cited as a future manager or coach, and while he’ll be meeting with Theo Epstein after Thanksgiving to discuss a possible future role with the team, Ross is looking forward to more well-deserved time with his family.  Here’s some more from around the majors as we start a new week…

  • The Diamondbacks won’t face any payroll limitations in Mike Hazen’s first offseason as the team’s general manager, club president/CEO Derrick Hall tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  “It’ll become a challenge in the future,” Hall said. “We can’t have too many high-priced players on the roster at the same time in this market.  You just can’t.  At some point we’re going to have difficult decisions to make.  But this year it’s not critical.  That’s a good spot to be in as a new GM.  (Hazen is) not looking at what he has committed and looking at having to move pieces to bring in others.  It gives him time to breathe and look and make his own assessments.”  While Hazen may not be required to make big payroll cuts, however, he may not have much spending room available if the D’Backs aren’t raising payroll.
  • New Rockies manager Bud Black is certain that he can avoid the clash of personalities that soured the relationship between GM Jeff Bridich and former manager Walt Weiss, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post writes.  Black’s ability to communicate and learn throughout every stage of his playing and post-playing career is illustrated in this piece from MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, who explores some of the many relationships Black has made throughout his many decades in baseball.
  • Commissioner Rob Manfred has stated that competitive balance and transparency are the league’s priorities in pushing for an international talent draft, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler feels neither of these issues will be helped (and in fact could be worsened) by further limiting contracts for international players within a draft framework.  The league’s real priority, Badler argues, is limiting the amount of bonus money given to international players.
  • How can the Cubs best position themselves for a repeat in 2017?  MLB.com’s Phil Rogers has a few suggestions, including re-signing Dexter Fowler, acquiring Sean Doolittle (if healthy) from the A’s, and packaging some of the club’s top prospects together to trade for a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/13/16

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The latest minor moves from around the sport, all of which come courtesy of Matt Eddy of Baseball America:

  • Infielder Josh Rutledge, whom the Red Sox outrighted Nov. 3, has elected free agency. Rutledge has seen major league action in each of the past five seasons, hitting .262/.312/.397 with 23 home runs and 20 steals across 1,088 plate appearances with Colorado and Boston.
  • Like Rutledge, Reds utilityman Ivan De Jesus has also elected free agency in lieu of an outright assignment. De Jesus picked up 465 PAs with the Reds during the previous two seasons and garnered playing time in the infield and outfield, but he batted just .249/.311/.341 along the way. Cincinnati also released right-hander Soid Marquez, who threw 186 2/3 innings with low-level Reds affiliates from 2012-16 and posted a 5.26 ERA, 6.7 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
  • The Cubs have added right-hander Jose Rosario to their 40-man roster and re-signed righty Nick Sarianides and catcher Gioskar Amaya to minor league contracts. The 26-year-old Rosario has been with the Cubs throughout his professional career, which began in 2009, and logged a combined 2.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at three minor league levels in 2016. Sarianides, formerly with Cleveland and Arizona, threw 25 innings with the Cubs’ Double-A affiliate this year and put up a 3.60 ERA, 10.08 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9. Amaya, 23, has hit .274/.356/.388 in seven seasons with various Cubs minor league affiliates.
  • The Cardinals have added shortstop Breyvic Valera to their 40-man roster and re-signed catcher Alberto Rosario and righty Robby Rowland to minor league deals. Valera, 24, slashed an outstanding .341/.417/.415 in 257 PAs with Triple-A Memphis this year. The 29-year-old Rosario made his major league debut in 2016, hitting .184/.225/.237 in 41 trips to the plate with the Cardinals. Rowland spent the season with three of St. Louis’ minor league affiliates and registered a 3.92 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in just 20 2/3 innings.
  • The Royals have released catcher Chad Johnson and six pitchers – Alex Close, Daniel Concepcion, Jason Freeman, Nick Andros, Christian Flecha and Cole Way. Kansas City drafted all but two of those players, Freeman and Andros. The club also re-signed righty Roman Colon and second baseman Ramon A. Castro to to minor league agreements. Colon tossed 187 1/3 major league innings from 2004-12, including 60 1/3 with the Royals, but hasn’t pitched in an affiliated minor league since 2013.
  • The Orioles are bringing back right-handed reliever Richard Rodriguez on a minor league pact. He’ll now enter his third year as a member of the Orioles, with whom he has pitched 123 1/3 innings between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. Rodriguez, 26, recorded 2.53 ERA, 8.93 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 with Triple-A Norfolk this past season.
  • The Padres have signed righties Trey McNutt and Bryan Rodriguez to minors contracts. McNutt, once a well-regarded Cubs prospect, nearly went to Boston in 2011 in a deal for now-Chicago president Theo Epstein. He remained with the Cubs through 2015, though, before latching on with the Padres this past season. The 27-year-old threw a mere 7 1/3 minor league innings in his first season with the Friars organization. Rodriguez combined for 145 1/3 innings between the Padres’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, totaling a 4.46 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9.
  • The Braves have re-signed catcher Braeden Schlehuber to a minor league deal. The 28-year-old has been a member of the Atlanta organization since it selected him in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, but he hasn’t gotten past the Triple-A level. Schlehuber collected 116 plate appearances with Triple-A Gwinnett in 2016 and hit .236/.254/.300.
  • The Giants have re-signed 27-year-old shortstop Ali Castillo to a minor league agreement. Castillo hit .313/.351/.374 in 411 PAs between the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2016.
  • The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Felipe Castenada and shortstop Shane Opitz to minor league contracts. Opitz has been with the Toronto organization since it chose him in the 11th round of the 2010 draft. He primarily played with Double-A New Hampshire in 2016 and batted .217/.280/.300 in 258 PAs.
  • The Indians have re-signed righty reliever Enosil Tejada to a minor league accord. Tejada, 27, didn’t pitch at all in 2016, but he amassed impressive numbers with the organization from 2010-15 (1.94 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 in 296 1/3 minor league innings).

Cubs’ Theo Epstein Discusses Offseason Plans

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Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein allocated up to $272MM to free agents Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey last winter. Now, a year later, the architect of the 2016 World Series champions expects a relatively quiet offseason.

[RELATED: Cubs Offseason Outlook]

“We made two offseasons worth of acquisitions last winter, two offseasons worth of spending,” Epstein told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. “We were very open about that at the time, knowing this winter there wouldn’t quite be the same type of talent available to us.”

Epstein admitted, though, that a loss to the Indians in Game 7 of the World Series might have led to a “different kind of mindset.”

“Sometimes when you do win it, it can allow you to take a little bit of a deep breath and survey the landscape more objectively,” he said.

The Cubs have two high-profile free agents in center fielder Dexter Fowler, to whom they extended a $17.2MM qualifying offer last week, and closer Aroldis Chapman. If Fowler rejects the QO by Monday’s deadline and signs elsewhere on the open market, the Cubs will still have plenty of in-house outfield options in Heyward, Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Albert Almora and Matt Szczur. Heyward and Almora jump out as potential successors to Fowler in center, though the former has far more experience in right field and Epstein isn’t yet eager to hand the role to the latter. Instead, he’d add someone to “complement [Almora] and allow him to grow into the job” – likely a lefty-swinging center fielder, per Sullivan. As this year’s free agent list shows, center fielders who should come at modest prices and are either left-handed or switch-hitters include Jon Jay, Coco Crisp and Michael Bourn.  Picking up one of them (or anyone else) would further crowd the Cubs’ outfield, perhaps making a Soler trade even more probable than it appears now. Epstein remains bullish on the 24-year-old, but he isn’t ruling out moving him.

“We don’t have any untouchables, but I still think there’s a lot more in there offensively,” stated Epstein. “He hasn’t had the season yet where he has put it all together, hit 30 home runs and been a force in the middle of the lineup. But it’s so obviously in there. We’d like to see him reach his full potential with us, if possible.”

Soler looked like a star in the making late in the 2014 season, his first taste of major league action, when the Cuba native slashed .292/.330/.573 in 97 plate appearances. Soler has tumbled to earth since, having hit .253/.328/.413 in 668 PAs dating back to 2015, though he’s under control through 2020 and could tantalize outfielder-needy teams if Chicago shops him.

It’s possible the Cubs could acquire pitching in a Soler trade, either in the bullpen to help replace Chapman (general manager Jed Hoyer has indicated they’re not looking to spend big money on a reliever) or the rotation. Having declined Jason Hammel’s option last week, the Cubs might be in the market for starting help to complement an enviable top four of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Lackey. For now, swingman/Game 7 World Series closer Mike Montgomery is the favorite to take over Hammel’s vacated fifth spot. Montgomery told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that he’ll enter spring training as a starter (Twitter link), but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs at least land more depth for their rotation – whether in a Soler deal or by other means.

Reliever Notes: Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Giants, Holland, Marlins

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The Giants met this week with representatives of top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter) and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) report. Finding a solution for the ninth inning is perhaps the top priority for Giants GM Bobby Evans, so it’s not surprising to hear that he’s looking into the three best options on the open market. It’s far from clear at this point whether the Giants are particularly interested in any of these pitchers. It will certainly be interesting to see the strategic approaches of the players and teams in the market for premium closers. There are plenty of suitors circling, but they’ll surely be somewhat cautious in doling out potentially record-setting contracts.

  • We took a look yesterday at the latest on Greg Holland, who’s a risky but intriguing alternative to the three major options just noted, but there’s more ground to cover today. The Cubs are among many organizations that have real interest in Holland, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. They certainly aren’t alone, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that clubs including the Rays, Indians, and Mariners — in addition to the many others who were reportedly on hand for his recent showcase — could still be involved.
  • While the Marlins’ priority is in the rotation, the club may consider bolstering its relief corps as an alternative, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. President of baseball operations Michael Hill suggests that the team will allow the market to “dictate[] the direction” that’s ultimately taken, at least to some extent, and that the Fish will explore all free agent and trade possibilities. But if the price for a worthwhile rotation addition proves too steep, the organization may perhaps pivot a bit. “You see the trends now, and the analytics, and they may say you don’t want to face guys a third time through the lineup,” Hill said. “It puts more of an emphasis to have a stronger bullpen. A lot of our success this year was because of our strong bullpen.” Frisaro notes that the Marlins have long been interested in Chapman, though it would seemingly be a big surprise were the club to enter his market in earnest.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

The impossible has happened.  The Cubs won the World Series.  Millions of Cubs fans are now contemplating something their parents and grandparents never could: a potential dynasty.  While Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have a free pass for life in Chicago, they’re already plotting an encore.  What’s next for the Cubs?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jon Lester, SP: $90MM through 2020.  Includes $25MM mutual option for 2021 with a $10MM buyout.  2021 option becomes guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 innings in 2019-20.
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $149MM through 2023.  Heyward can opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019.
  • John Lackey, SP: $12.5MM through 2017.
  • Miguel Montero, C: $14MM through 2017.
  • Ben Zobrist, OF/2B: $44MM through 2019.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $27MM through 2019.  Includes $14.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout for 2020 and an identical club option for 2021.  2019 salaries can increase based on MVP finishes.  Rizzo can void 2021 option with top two finish in 2017-19 MVP voting and subsequent trade.
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $15MM through 2020.  Can opt into arbitration after 2017 season.

Contract Options

  • Jason Hammel, SP: Cubs chose $2MM buyout over $12MM club option.
  • Dexter Fowler, CF: Fowler declined his part of $9MM mutual option, triggering $5MM buyout.

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

Free Agents

The 2016 Cubs had the best starting rotation in baseball by a long shot, and they had the rare ability to bring back the exact same group for 2017: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Jason Hammel.  Instead, Epstein kicked off the offseason with a surprising move that won’t go unnoticed by future free agents.  The Cubs declined their option on Hammel, who posted a 3.79 ERA over two seasons for the club.  The 34-year-old might have profiled as the best fifth starter in baseball.  The Cubs feel they can do better, and didn’t feel the need to exercise the option and trade Hammel, which could have brought a low-level prospect in return.  Epstein said in a statement, “Our hope is that by giving a starting opportunity to some younger pitchers under multiple years of club control, we can unearth a starter who will help us not only in 2017 but also in 2018 and beyond.”

One internal possibility is Mike Montgomery, the 27-year-old lefty the Cubs acquired from the Mariners in a July trade.  Montgomery pitched well in his five starts for the Cubs, though his control remains an issue.  Montgomery also made the short list of Joe Maddon’s trusted relievers as the team continued through the playoffs.  Moving him to the rotation is a viable option, though it would open up a hole in the bullpen.  Southpaw Rob Zastryzny, the Cubs’ second round draft pick in 2013, is another rotation option.  However, with a 4.31 ERA across 23 starts at Double and Triple-A this year, Zastryzny would seem a clear downgrade from Hammel.

The free agent market for starting pitching is historically weak.  The only pitcher clearly better than Hammel is former Cub Rich Hill, a brittle lefty who turns 37 in March and would hardly fit Epstein’s search for a younger starter.  That brings us to the trade market.  Possible candidates include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, and Shelby Miller, all of whom are controllable for multiple years.  The potential prizes of the market are Sale and Quintana, but the White Sox could be reluctant to send one of their aces across town. The Cubs have plenty of position players they might consider trading, including Jorge Soler on the Major League side and prospects such as Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and Mark Zagunis.  The Cubs already spent a few pieces from their stash this summer, trading Gleyber Torres to get Aroldis Chapman and Dan Vogelbach to get Montgomery.

The Chicago bullpen will require serious work this winter.  Though Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop handled the late innings ably for much of the season for the Cubs, Joe Maddon seemed to lose faith in them as the playoffs wore on.  With combined arbitration salaries over $11MM, I can see the Cubs trading one of them.  Justin Grimm is more affordable, and despite some issues with free passes, he’s worth keeping around.  Carl Edwards Jr. is locked in as one of the Cubs’ more trusted relievers.  Montgomery will certainly have a spot if he doesn’t land in the rotation.  Travis Wood may leave for greener pastures (and a rotation job) as a free agent, while Trevor Cahill and Joe Smith did not make the playoff roster and will likely be allowed to sign elsewhere.

It is difficult to picture a team as stacked with talent and flush with money as the Cubs, coming off a World Championship, not striving for a relief ace.  The free agent market happens to offer two of them, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.  However, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out recently, signing Chapman or Jansen to a five-year deal in the $80-90MM range doesn’t fit with Epstein’s history.  And Cubs GM Jed Hoyer recently expounded on “trying to be creative in finding bullpen pieces,” perhaps discovering the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis.  Andrew Cashner, anyone?

While the Cubs could turn to the trade market for a dominant reliever, options are limited.  The Orioles’ Zach Britton or the Royals’ Kelvin Herrera would be excellent two-year additions, but they are not known to be available.  Davis, a potential one-year pickup from Kansas City, battled a flexor strain in his elbow this summer.  Barring availability of the Indians’ Andrew Miller, I don’t see any other established top relievers the Cubs could pursue.  Rather than bring in a lesser closer, they could just try to get Rondon back on track, as he had an excellent season before an August triceps injury.  We also must consider Epstein’s ability to think outside the box, as he did in trading for Montgomery.  If the Cubs’ front office is big on a Tyler Thornburg, Nate Jones, or Alex Colome, they could use their position player depth to pry one of them loose.   Regardless of the closer situation, the Cubs may do well to add another lefty reliever to the mix, with free agent options such as Brett Cecil, Boone Logan, Jerry Blevins, and Mike Dunn.

On the position player side, the Cubs have an embarrassment of riches.  Behind the plate, 24-year-old Willson Contreras will be the starter after a strong rookie debut.  Given his salary, the Cubs will likely go with Miguel Montero as the backup catcher replacement for the retiring David Ross.  However, Maddon and Montero will have to clear the air after the catcher expressed discontent with the manager’s communication about his usage in the playoffs.  It’s also not clear whether Montero can fill Ross’ role, particularly in regard to countering the large leadoffs baserunners are able to take on Jon Lester due to the lefty’s inability to make pickoff throws.  Since Contreras is only 24, it may be possible for the Cubs to lean on him for 130-140 games while reducing the role of the backup and ending the idea of Lester having a personal catcher.

The infield corners are locked down with one of the best duos in baseball, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.  Bryant, a third baseman by trade, also logged innings at the outfield corners and first base this year.  If the playoffs are any indication, Javier Baez has taken over the Cubs’ regular second base job from Ben Zobrist.  Addison Russell is locked in at shortstop.

The Cubs’ outfield machinations will be interesting to watch.  Fowler did an excellent job as the Cubs’ center fielder and sparkplug leadoff man over the last two seasons, and the team could easily afford to sign him long-term.  But doing so would only exacerbate the outfield logjam, so they may have to let him go.  In that case, the Cubs have two options to fill center field.  One is Albert Almora, a 22-year-old who was the Cubs’ first-round draft pick in 2012.  As a contact hitter who rarely walks and only has a touch of power, Almora would be an offensive downgrade compared to Fowler.  On the other hand, he can make up some of that gap with superior glovework.  The other center field option is Jason Heyward, who has seven years remaining on his contract.  Heyward was slated for center field when the Cubs originally signed him, so it’s a possibility despite his limited exposure at the position.  He did just win a Gold Glove as a right fielder.  However, after a disastrous year at the plate, Heyward will spent the winter working on his swing, and the Cubs may not want to ask him to change positions as well.

Will Heyward’s massive contract lock him into a starting job for most of 2017, as it did this year?  I expect the 27-year-old to break camp as a lineup regular, but Maddon did show a willingness to bench Heyward in the playoffs.  Look for a shorter leash in Heyward’s second Cubs season.  Zobrist, also signed as a free agent in the 2015-16 offseason, remains slated for regular playing time.  He began 2016 as the Cubs’ regular second baseman, but the emergence of Baez has pushed him to left field.

So a Zobrist-Almora-Heyward alignment seems pretty good, right?  The “problem” is that the Cubs also have one of the game’s best young hitters, Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber, 24 in March, made a surprisingly fast recovery from his early-season torn ACL and LCL, serving as the Cubs’ designated hitter in the World Series.  Can Schwarber catch again, alleviating some of the outfield logjam?  Even Hoyer doesn’t seem to have the answer yet, plus there’s just not a big need for him behind the dish.  Save for 10 interleague games in American League parks, Schwarber will need to get most of his playing time as the Cubs’ left fielder.  The need to get Schwarber into the lineup creates urgency for Heyward to bounce back offensively, as Zobrist could wind up in right field when Schwarber plays.

If the Cubs will have to do some juggling to get Schwarber, Heyward, and Zobrist enough at-bats, they’ll really have a problem finding room for Jorge Soler.  Soler, 25 in February, is the Cubs’ most obvious piece of trade bait.  The Cubs control Soler for the next four seasons.  In 765 career plate-appearances, he’s hitting .258/.328/.434.  In 86 games this year, Soler showed increased power and patience at the plate, but he’s still only a slightly above average hitter.  He’s also pretty clearly a below-average defender and has been injury-prone in his career.  Nonetheless, Soler’s ceiling may still tantalize some teams, as the former top prospect’s bat still has All-Star potential.  In potential trades with the Rays, White Sox, Phillies, and others, the Cubs could attempt to acquire a controllable starting pitcher and/or reliever for a package centered around Soler.

Once free agency starts to die down in the new year, the Cubs may want to look into a few contract extension opportunities.  Hendricks and Schwarber could be candidates.  Bryant and Russell would certainly be of interest, though they’re represented by Scott Boras.  There’s also the looming free agency of Arrieta, who turns 31 in March.  The 2015 Cy Young winner picked up where he left off in 2016, posting a 1.74 ERA through his first 14 starts.  Even in that period, however, his command had begun to falter, and in the 126 2/3 innings that followed (including the playoffs), Arrieta posted a 4.19 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 1.14 HR/9.  That performance is more in line with a Matt Moore, Ian Kennedy, or Trevor Bauer.  Good, but not $30MM per year good.  With a potential $105MM owed to Lester through 2021, a mega-deal for Arrieta looks a lot less appealing than it did a year ago.  After 2017, Arrieta may be joined in free agency by Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Danny Duffy, Masahiro Tanaka, and others, so it’s quite possible the Cubs explore alternatives.

The Cubs had baseball’s best group of position players in 2016.  Even if they subtract Fowler and Soler, full seasons from Schwarber, Baez, and Contreras, plus some level of bounceback from Heyward, might result in an even stronger group in 2017.  Likewise, the Cubs are looking to improve upon an already-strong starting rotation.  While the bullpen needs significant retooling, the Cubs project to have a good $25MM+ in the war chest to spend on new player salaries for 2017.  The team is in an incredible position for years to come, suggesting 2016 was just the beginning.

Pitching Rumors: Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Rockies, Padres

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The Dodgers have real interest in pursuing free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, Andy McCullough suggests (Twitter links). While we’ve heard plenty of indication that the organization also intends to make a bid on its own departing closer, Kenley Jansen, it appears that the fireballing lefty also represents a viable target for one of the game’s biggest spenders — despite the fact that the club jettisoned a deal to acquire Chapman last winter when domestic violence allegations arose. While Los Angeles has spent very little on its bullpen since hiring Andrew Friedman to run its baseball operations, the club obviously saw the value of a shut-down arm while leaning heavily on Jansen during the postseason. The big question remains just how hard the Dodgers will push, but their presence in the market for the two best-available relievers is certainly a boon for the earning power of both.

  • Meanwhile, the Cubs are giving signals that they may be less inclined to pay top dollar for an established relief arm, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports. While the organization gave up a haul for Chapman at the trade deadline, and featured him frequently en route to a World Series win, Chicago would seemingly prefer to think outside the box to find its next dominant relief arm. GM Jed Hoyer spoke of a “targeted” approach to the roster, with the club set to “explore every avenue” in finding a replacement for Chapman. He cited two prominent examples of pitchers who failed as starters but later emerged in a late-inning role. “You never know who that guy’s going to be,” said Hoyer. “If you stop thinking that way, you have no chance to find that guy. You always want to think like: ’OK, who is going to be that next Andrew Miller? Who’s going to be that next Wade Davis?'” As Mooney notes, Carl Edwards Jr. represents a possible internal option to take high-leverage opportunities, along with former closer Hector Rondon. Beyond that, Hoyer says, the team will “be looking at a lot of ways to acquire pitching” and will “explore every avenue” to add arms this winter.
  • That somewhat unconventional approach has long been pursued by the Pirates, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review looks at the team’s rotation prospects this winter. Pittsburgh’s reclamation strategy has paid dividends time and again, but that may be tougher than ever with a thin market and perhaps added competition from other organizations who have seen how the Bucs’ approach can work. GM Neal Huntington emphasized that, while a veteran pitcher would “take[] some pressure off,” it remains hard for his small-budget organization to commit the years and dollars needed to compete on the open market. He stressed the need to continue pushing the development of the team’s homegrown starters, and certainly there are a variety of options already on hand, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth analyzed in taking stock of the Pirates’ offseason outlook. As he notes, and Huntington acknowledges, the club could consider bolstering that group by dealing from its fairly robust array of position-player talent.
  • Another organization that could look to the trade market for starters is the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter), Atlanta has spoken with the Rays about staff ace Chris Archer, who is one of the game’s top starting pitching assets (even after a disappointing 2016 season) due in large part to his youth and highly appealing contract. That’s notable, but hardly should be read as an indication that the Braves will push the pedal to the floor for a top arm. GM John Coppolella stressed that the club is looking for value in all regards, and will continue to be opportunistic rather than stretching to add a premium starter. “Starting pitching is the main need that we have, and we want it badly,” he said. “That being said, if the numbers get crazy or the years get too long [for free agents], we’ll just stick with what we have. Or we’ll look to the trade market for short-term guys. … We’re going to look for value, whether it’s starting pitching, catching, whatever. If the market spirals too far out of control, we’ll just move on to other areas of need. Maybe build a killer bullpen and add to [an area that is a strength already.”
  • Though the Rockies have received promising returns from their own rotation of late, the team isn’t satisfied with its pitching entering the winter, GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Certainly, that could take the form of a focus on a bullpen that struggled last year, though perhaps a move for a starter can’t be ruled out either. Bridich said that the club is “going to have to take some risks” this offseason and will seek to “improve the impactful pitchers we have.”
  • The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”

Phillies Hire Bryan Minniti From Diamondbacks; Arizona Hires Jared Porter From Cubs

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7:43pm: Minniti had a two-year offer to stay in Arizona, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), but elected to seek a new opportunity elsewhere.

2:13pm: A pair of notable front office changes took place today, as the Phillies announced that they’ve hired D-backs assistant GM Bryan Minniti as a special assistant to general manager Matt Klentak. The Diamondbacks clearly already had a replacement for Minniti lined up, however, as they announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Cubs director of professional scouting Jared Porter and named him senior vice president and assistant general manager.

The moves come as just one in a flurry of promotions and hires for each team. Philadelphia has promoted Jorge Velendia to the same title as Minniti, hired a “Mental Skills” coach and made yet another add to its ever-growing analytics department, as PhillyVoice.com’s Ryan Lawrence explores in greater detail. The D-backs, meanwhile, announced that they’ve promoted director of player personnel Mike Bell to vice president of player development and named former Major League infielder Josh Barfield their new assistant director of pro scouting.

Minniti will bring the Phillies an executive with seven seasons as an assistant general manager under his belt. He comes from an analytical background, having double-majored in mathematics and statistics at the University of Pittsburgh and has been working in front offices since being hired as an intern by the Pirates back in 2001. The 36-year-old worked with the D-backs for the past two seasons and spent the previous five years with the Nationals, working on matters such as statistical analysis, budgeting and contract negotiations, per Arizona’s media guide.

The addition of Porter to the D-backs’ front office, meanwhile, gives the team another big-name executive with Red Sox roots to add to its leadership group. Porter was the Cubs’ scouting director this past season but is quite familiar with newly minted Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and newly hired assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye from the time the trio spent together with the Red Sox. Porter spent a dozen years working in the Red Sox organization and was the team’s director of pro scouting from 2012-15.

Cubs Claim Conor Mullee, Outright Three Players

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The Cubs have claimed righty Conor Mullee off waivers from the Yankees, per announcements from the team. Chicago also selected the contract of righty Jose Rosario while outrighting three players: right-handers Dallas Beeler and Andury Acevedo as well as catcher Tim Federowicz.

Fresh off a World Series win, the Cubs will enter the winter in earnest with just 34 of its 40-man roster spots accounted for. That space allowed the team to take a flier on Mullee, who has had arm issues over the years and required elbow surgery in 2016.

Despite the injuries, and a less-than-inspiring (albeit brief) major league debut last year, Mullee has shown some intriguing numbers in the minors. Most recently, he ran up 37 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 1.19 ERA and 11.2 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9.

Chicago will presumably give Mullee a shot in camp along with the 26-year-old Rosario, who has yet to crack the bigs but has an intriguing power arm. Pitching at the three highest levels of the minors last year after missing 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, Rosario worked to a cumulative 2.50 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9.

Otherwise, the 27-year-old Beeler lost his roster spot after shoulder injuries cut his season short. Acevedo, who was signed to the 40-man last winter, missed almost all the year with a torn ACL. And the 29-year-old Federowicz saw time briefly with the Cubs, but didn’t have much of a shot at the roster in 2017 with a deep group of catchers ahead of him. After showing well at Triple-A, though, he’ll surely get a crack somewhere in Spring Training.

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