Cubs Rumors

Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2016 at 4:06pm CDT

Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
Neil Walker, Mets (link)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

Cubs Decline Jason Hammel’s Option

By Connor Byrne | November 7, 2016 at 11:25am CDT

TODAY: Chicago allowed Hammel to decide whether he’d be back for one more year or test the market, according to ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers. That was no doubt an easy call for him, at least financially.

YESTERDAY: The Cubs have declined right-hander Jason Hammel’s $12MM option for 2017 in favor of a $2MM buyout, according to a team announcement. Hammel is now a free agent.

The World Series champions’ decision to cut the reasonably priced Hammel comes as a surprise, as he at least looked like a trade candidate prior to Sunday. However, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein announced that the team had no plans to pick up Hammel’s option just to shop him.

“The intent was never to exercise the option and then trade Jason, so we will not consider that path,” said Epstein. “Instead, Jason will have the opportunity to enter free agency coming off an outstanding season and the ability to choose his next club.”

Hammel, 34, contributed 166 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA pitching to go with a 7.78 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and 42.1 percent ground-ball rate in 2016. He experienced elbow tightness late in the regular season, though, and the club subsequently left him off its roster during playoff victories over the Giants, Dodgers and Indians.

This ends Hammel’s second stint with the Cubs, who signed him to a one-year contract entering the 2014 season and then sent him and Jeff Samardzija to Oakland in a July deal that brought shortstop Addison Russell to Chicago. Hammel subsequently returned to the Windy City in free agency the next winter, ultimately collecting $20MM from the team on what would have been a three-year, $30MM pact had the Cubs exercised his option.

For Hammel’s earning power, the Cubs’ move to buy him out comes at a fortuitous time. Given the weakness of this winter’s free agent class, he’ll return to the open market as one of the top starters available. Going back to 2014, Hammel has logged a 3.68 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 40 percent grounder mark over 513 2/3 innings.

Barring offseason acquisitions, the Cubs’ removal of Hammel from their roster will leave them with Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey and Mike Montgomery as their starting five entering 2017. That quintet should form one of the majors’ premier rotations next season if healthy, though the Cubs’ depth took an obvious hit with Hammel’s exit.

Cubs To Tender Qualifying Offer To Dexter Fowler

By Connor Byrne | November 6, 2016 at 8:10pm CDT

In unsurprising news, the Cubs will tender Dexter Fowler a $17.2MM qualifying offer by Monday’s deadline, and the center fielder is likely to reject it, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

Fowler, who’s fresh off helping the Cubs to their first World Series title in 108 years, declined his half of a $9MM mutual option for 2017 on Saturday and became a free agent. Fowler is all too familiar with the open market, as the 30-year-old rejected a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Cubs last November and then went without a deal until February. After nearly taking the Orioles’ three-year, $33MM offer, Fowler re-signed with the Cubs for a guaranteed $13MM.

Fowler will once again have first-round compensation hanging over his head this offseason, but he should fare much better this time around as perhaps the second-best outfielder on the market, trailing only Yoenis Cespedes. The former Rockie and Astro is coming off the top season of his career, having slashed .276/.393/.447 with 13 home runs and 13 steals across 551 plate appearances to earn his first All-Star nod. Combining Fowler’s work at the plate, on the bases and in the field, where a change in positioning led to improved metrics, he accounted for a personal-high 4.7 fWAR.

While it’s possible Fowler will re-sign with the Cubs, prospective contenders like the Mets, Mariners and Rangers, to name a few, are among clubs that are likely to search for outfield help via free agency. Fowler has spent his entire career in center, but marketing himself as a corner option could lead to more suitors, thus driving up his price.

Cubs Notes: Rotation, Soler, Epstein

By Connor Byrne | November 6, 2016 at 2:58pm CDT

The latest on the 2016 World Series champions:

The Cubs have an enviable long-term core of position players that includes Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. However, future rotation issues could prevent the team from becoming a dynasty, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended), who points out that Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and swingman/World Series Game 7 closer Mike Montgomery are their only starters signed beyond next season. Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel will be free agents a year from now, and rival talent evaluators feel that Chicago’s top pitching prospects are still far from potentially cracking the majors, per Olney. Thus, in order to fill out their rotation, the Cubs could turn to next year’s open market – Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Danny Duffy are among starters who could hit free agency then – and/or deal from their excellent group of position players to acquire pitching.
With Heyward, Schwarber, Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. in the fold as outfield options, the Cubs could shop Jorge Soler this offseason. But FOX Sports’ CJ Nitkowski opines that Chicago missed its chance to trade Soler (Twitter link via MLB Network Radio). It wasn’t long ago that Soler looked like a surefire core piece, but the Cuba native has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene late in the 2014 campaign. He’s still just 24, though, and didn’t perform badly at the plate in 2016 (.238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances). Soler is also controllable through the 2020 season. He’ll make a relative pittance ($3MM) in 2017 and will then have the opportunity to opt into arbitration.
President of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s shrewd trading is one obvious reason the Cubs are in their current position, as Andrew Simon of MLB.com observes. Epstein has picked up several integral players that way, having landed Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks and Russell, to name a few. Nabbing Rizzo from the Padres in 2012 is the best deal Epstein has made since taking the helm of the franchise five years ago, posits Simon. The Cubs got the now-superstar first baseman for right-hander Andrew Cashner, who currently resembles more of a back-end starter than a major difference-maker.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Montero, Mozeliak, Stearns

By Mark Polishuk | November 6, 2016 at 9:56am CDT

The Cubs’ celebration of their World Series win took them to the Saturday Night Live stage, as Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler and David Ross made two cameo appearances on last night’s show. The players first appeared in a sketch as (of all things) dancers at a bachelorette party, and the trio returned later in the show to sing “Go Cubs Go” alongside SNL legend and Cubs superfan Bill Murray. Since Fowler officially elected to become a free agent last evening (slightly before SNL went on the air), this may mark the last time we see the outfielder in a Cubs uniform. Here’s the latest from Wrigleyville and elsewhere around the NL Central…

In a recent interview on ESPN 1000’s Waddle and Silvy Show (hat tip to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune), Miguel Montero admitted that he frustrated by his diminished playing time during the season and wished he had received more input from Joe Maddon about his role on the team. Montero appeared in 86 games and hit .216/.327/.357 over 284 plate appearances, with Ross and Willson Contreras getting an increasingly large share of the catching workload throughout the year and in the postseason. Though Montero is owed $14MM next season, he’ll likely still be limited to backup duties behind Contreras and possibly Kyle Schwarber if the Cubs still consider the slugger an option behind the plate. As Gonzalez notes, Montero’s large salary will make him a tough sell on the trade market unless the Cubs are willing to eat some of the money.
Exercising Jaime Garcia’s club option gives the Cardinals rotation depth and some possible breathing room to make a trade, GM John Mozeliak tells Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “As we look to the trade market as we get to the GM meetings, we want to be able to not have our hands tied. For example, if we had not picked up the option, and all of a sudden we feel there’s a trade that might make sense for us that’s going to have to include a starter, then we’re left with having to backfill,” Mozeliak said. “Given what Jaime was able to accomplish last year, clearly it didn’t end the way he would’ve liked it to, but he still ate a lot of valuable innings for us. When I think about what’s out there on the free-agent market, I still think it’s an asset to have….And what if we have to move someone else? It would be nice to still have the depth in our rotation.” Hochman figures the Cards will be more active on the trade market than in free agency this winter, and he thinks the team will look at upgrading the defense in the wake of club-wide defensive metrics ranging from middling to below-average.
Brewers GM David Stearns doesn’t expect as busy an offseason as last winter’s roster overhaul, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes. “I think the amount of transactional volume that we had over the past 12 months was probably unprecedented. It would be tough for me to imagine that we would see a similar-type volume,” Stearns said. The GM also spoke of the importance of keeping a flexible 40-man roster, so the club has the opportunity to make additions if they unexpectedly arise.

Dexter Fowler Declines Mutual Option

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2016 at 10:45pm CDT

SATURDAY: Fowler is now officially a free agent, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link).

FRIDAY: Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler will decline his half of a $9MM mutual option and re-enter the free-agent market, Fowler himself said on ESPN’s Sportscenter last night (via ESPN News Services). The news comes as little surprise on the heels of a career year for Fowler, who should be one of the top outfielders and top all-around free agents on this year’s open market.

“I’m definitely going to be a free agent, but hopefully it happens a little bit quicker than last year,” said the 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder. “You can’t control what goes on, but I loved my time in Chicago and I’m definitely not counting them out, but we’ll see what God has planned for us now.”

Fowler, who will turn 31 next March, batted .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 steals in 125 games/551 plate appearances for the Cubs in the regular season before kicking in a trio of postseason home runs on during the Cubs’ curse-breaking World Series run. He’s a surefire candidate to receive a qualifying offer from Chicago, which would give him a one-year, $17.2MM offer to return to the team, but based on Fowler’s comments it seems safe to say he’ll be rejecting the QO to again test free agency.

That’s familiar territory for Fowler, who rejected a QO from the Cubs last winter and spent much of the offseason languishing on the free-agent market. While he reportedly came close to a three-year deal with the Orioles in February — many credible reporters indicated that the deal was agreed to, though Fowler’s agent vehemently denied that rumor after the fact — Fowler ultimately settled for a one-year deal to return to Chicago instead. That was a surprising development, considering Fowler entered the offseason seemingly poised to score a strong free-agent payday. Some teams weren’t willing to part with the draft pick required to sign him, however, and that could again prove true this winter. However, it also seems less likely, as Fowler is now coming off the two best seasons of his career and has seemingly erased some concerns about his defense in center field. Fowler recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that teams last winter weren’t convinced of his ability to play center field, but he altered his positioning this year and drew slightly above-average marks from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved for the first time in his career.

Alternatively, if Fowler is open to playing an outfield corner, his market would almost certainly grow even more robust, as a number of contending clubs with money to spend (e.g. the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Rangers) could look to the free-agent market to find help in the outfield corners. It was genuinely surprising that a long-term deal did not materialize for Fowler earlier in the offseason last winter, but it’ll come as even more of a shock if he’s not able to lock down a lucrative multi-year commitment in the 2016-17 offseason. From my vantage point, Fowler should be able to land at least a four-year contract this winter even after rejecting the qualifying offer.

Cubs Claim Conor Mullee From Yankees

By Connor Byrne | November 3, 2016 at 9:03am CDT

The Cubs were busy winning their first World Series since 1908 on Wednesday, but that didn’t stop them from adding to their 40-man roster. The club claimed right-hander Conor Mullee off waivers from the Yankees.

Mullee, 28, had been a member of the Yankees organization since going in the 24th round of the 2010 draft. Injuries have been highly problematic during his professional career, unfortunately, as he missed nearly all of the 2011-13 campaigns because of various surgeries – including a Tommy John procedure. Remarkably, Mullee persevered through those issues to make his major league debut in 2016, tossing three innings of one-run ball with the Yankees. However, he once again underwent surgery – this time to repair a nerve issue in his elbow – thus ending his season in August.

Over 162 career minor league frames, including 40 at the Triple-A level, Mullee has pitched to a stingy 2.00 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates of 9.1 and 2.6 per nine innings. That terrific body of work has helped earn Mullee a place on the World Series champions’ 40-man roster, at least for now.

World Series Notes: Trades, Rizzo, Martinez, Rebuilding

By charliewilmoth | October 30, 2016 at 7:06pm CDT

Andrew Miller has thrived with the Indians and Aroldis Chapman has done well with the Cubs, but that doesn’t change the Yankees’ sides of the trades that sent those relievers packing, writes the New York Post’s Joel Sherman. Even if the Indians and Cubs had missed the World Series, the Yankees had two top-notch relievers to deal and needed to get peak value from them. The Yankees need to hit on their acquisitions of Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and Gleyber Torres, but the spotlights on Miller and Chapman shouldn’t cause Yankees fans to become increasingly impatient. Sherman notes that many key Indians players (including Corey Kluber, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw) were acquired in veterans-for-prospects deals much like the ones the Yankees made in dealing Miller and Chapman. Here’s more on the World Series, and what, if anything, teams that aren’t in the Series can learn from the teams that are.

The Cubs had similar success in veterans-for-prospects trades, getting Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Addison Russell, Pedro Strop and Travis Wood in such deals. But just as important was the 2012 deal that sent Andrew Cashner and a minor leaguer to the Padres for Anthony Rizzo and a prospect, as SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee notes in a list of key trades for both World Series teams. For awhile, Cashner looked like one of the NL’s better young starters, but the deal eventually tilted in the Cubs’ favor as Cashner struggled despite his excellent stuff and Rizzo became a force in the middle of Chicago’s lineup.
It’s doubtful whether Theo Epstein would have been able to rebuild the Red Sox the way he did with the Cubs, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. The Red Sox faithful would not have shown much patience for such a rebuild, MacPherson argues. Of course, Boston has had its share of losing seasons in recent years, but never were such losing seasons part of a broader rebuilding project, and MacPherson highlights the differences between some of the big trades the Cubs have made during losing periods and those of the Red Sox. When they traded Jon Lester, Jon Lackey and Miller in 2014, for example, the Red Sox got veterans like Yoenis Cespedes, Joe Kelly and Allen Craig. They did get youngster Eduardo Rodriguez in the Miller deal, and had success with the Lester deal too, in that they traded Cespedes and Alex Wilson for Rick Porcello. But it’s clear the Red Sox took a fundamentally different approach. Of course, it’s arguable that a full rebuild wasn’t necessary for the Red Sox at that time — by 2014 they were one year removed from a World Series victory and were already in the process of integrating youngsters like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley into their lineup, and they had an excellent season of their own in 2016, just two years later.
Regardless of what happens in the World Series, the Cubs plan to ask coaches to return in 2017, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers writes. They are, however, considering the possibility that bench coach Dave Martinez could depart, since Martinez appears to be a candidate for the Rockies’ open managerial job. Maddon says Martinez’s current job has prepared him well. “When the guy does the bench coaching properly, I absolutely believe it sets him up to be a manager,” says Maddon. “He should be there to let the manager intellectualize the day.”

Quick Hits: Cubs, Indians, Astros, McCann, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 4:38pm CDT

This year’s World Series representatives, the Cubs and Indians, have benefited from the Red Sox’s September collapse in 2011, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post observes. After the Red Sox blew a nine-game lead in the wild-card race that year, the team parted with two-time World Series-winning manager Terry Francona, who is now one victory away from helping the Indians to their first championship since 1948. The executive who hired Francona in Boston, Theo Epstein, departed after that season to take over the Cubs, with whom he has built what should be a long-term contender. And two of his veteran free agents signings in Chicago, starters Jon Lester and John Lackey, were at the center of a memorable controversy with the Sox in 2011. Along with fellow starter Josh Beckett, Lester and Lackey made a habit of drinking beer, eating fried chicken and playing videogames in the clubhouse during games in which they weren’t pitching. The Red Sox didn’t ax any of those pitchers because of it, though, as each was on the team in 2012. They eventually traded Beckett to the Dodgers in August 2012, while Lester and Lackey were part of the franchise’s latest championship squad in 2013.

NL Notes: Chapman, Dodgers, Cubs, Reds

By Connor Byrne | October 30, 2016 at 10:36am CDT

Had their offseason attempt to acquire then-Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman not fallen through over his domestic violence issues, the Dodgers would have deployed the left-hander aggressively in a setup role, a club official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That would have meant continuing with Kenley Jansen as the closer, which the Dodgers believe Chapman would have accepted after doing background work on him. Chapman ended up going to the Yankees, who shipped him to the Cubs in advance of this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. The flame-throwing 28-year-old could join the Dodgers in free agency during the offseason, notes Sherman, who writes that the team still has a high opinion of him. Los Angeles is also facing the potential departure of Jansen, who is set to join Chapman on the open market.

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