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Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…

  • There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals’ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
  • Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
  • The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
  • That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
  • The D-Backs’ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
  • The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
  • Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.

Central Notes: Cardinals, Samardzija, Cubs, Indians

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Lance Lynn’s recent Tommy John surgery has the Cardinals hunting for starting pitching. While Lynn’s injury is unfortunate, the Cardinals’ need for pitching couldn’t be better timed, given the strong market for starters, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out. This winter’s market has everything: superstars like David Price and Zack Greinke, interesting high-upside pitchers like Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda, reliable mid-rotation types like Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, and potential post-Christmas signees like Yovani Gallardo and Doug Fister. Here’s more from the Central divisions.

  • The Cubs are interested in bringing back Samardzija, but the key to negotiations will be how much they value him compared to their other needs, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes. They need a top starter more than they need Samardzija, says Sullivan, and at some point, they’ll also need to have money left over to extend Jake Arrieta.
  • The Indians have a bit of depth that could help them withstand the departure of one of their young pitchers, and they could also look outside the organization for reinforcements if they make a trade. But they aren’t looking to deal Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar or Trevor Bauer unless they get obvious impact talent in return, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.
  • The Indians have been in touch with free agent Shane Victorino, and whether they sign him or not, Victorino is the type of outfielder the team seems likely to acquire, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. The Indians could probably sign Victorino to a one-year deal — a reasonable proposition for them, since they need outfield help in 2016 but have a number of potentially helpful outfielders in the minors (including Tyler Naquin and James Ramsey in the short term and Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer in the longer term) who could help in future seasons.

Quick Hits: Holliday, Davis, Price, Cubs, Padres, Relievers, CBA

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In response to a reader question about Matt Holliday as a possible trade candidate, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch doubts the Cardinals would move a such strong bat since the team’s main winter goal is to add offense.  Langosch isn’t sure if the Cards have any interest in dealing Holliday or if he would accept a trade via his 10-and-5 veto rights.  Even at age 35 and battling injuries last season, Holliday still posted a very respectable .279/.394/.410 line over 277 plate appearances.  2016 is his last guaranteed year under contract (St. Louis has a $17MM club option on him for 2017) so it’s also not like Holliday is a long-term roadblock for the club’s upcoming young outfielders.  Here’s some more from around baseball as we look forward to leftover turkey tomorrow…

  • The Astros aren’t likely to be big players for Chris Davis, a source familiar with the situation tells Evan Drelllich of the Houston Chronicle.  Davis will command a big price and Houston already has a lot of high-power, high-strikeout hitters.  I myself speculated that Davis and the Astros could be a fit in my Astros Offseason Outlook piece, under the logic that the team needs a big left-handed bat, Davis is a Texas native and first base would be open if Chris Carter and Evan Gattis were non-tendered.  Drellich’s piece looks at that first base situation for the Astros, and the presence of prospects Tyler White and A.J. Reed might also make a Davis signing unlikely.
  • Six general managers who recently spoke with Peter Gammons believe the Red Sox will sign David Price this offseason.  “Boston will go $30-40M above anyone else” to land Price, one NL GM opines.  This is just the latest chatter connecting Price to the Sox, and while Gammons writes that “some feel he is uneasy about Boston, but David is so sophisticated, so talented and so intelligent he will make the best of any situation.”  Another GM, however, speculates that the Cardinals could be the ones to make the big play for Price, passing on re-signing Jason Heyward in the process.
  • Gammons shares some more chatter from his sources, including “a lot of John Lackey and Alex Gordon to the Cubs speculation.”
  • Recently designated players like John Axford, Daniel Nava, A.J. Griffin, Danny Hultzen and Wilin Rosario could all be intriguing targets for the Padres, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune opines.  The first three are free agents, Hultzen was outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster and Rosario is still in DFA limbo.
  • Fangraphs’ Eno Sarris tries to identify some of the smaller-name or underrated relief arms on the open market that could blossom into bargain pickups.  The Cubs are one example of a club that has built an entire bullpen (and a strong one, at that) out of such under-the-radar pitchers, as Sarris notes.
  • One of the underlying stories of 2016 will be the negotiations between MLB and the players union over the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, ESPN’s Jayson Stark writes.  Stark’s piece highlights some of the major issues that are likely to play a big role in the upcoming talks, ranging from revenue sharing, free agency and the qualifying offer, the length of the season, a possible international amateur draft and more.  Another interesting topic could be how the league may address teams “tanking” several seasons in an attempt to rebuild, and possible solutions include a draft lottery or a rule prohibiting teams from drafting in the top five in consecutive seasons.
  • The good news about the CBA talks is that multiple sources on both sides tell Stark that everyone wants to keep the labor peace that baseball has enjoyed for over two decades.  “It’s a 9-and-a-half-billion dollar industry.  Nobody is going to want to blow it up,” one source tells Stark.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/26/15

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Here are the latest minor league signings from around baseball, all reported by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…

  • The Rockies signed right-hander Brian Schlitter, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets.  The 6’5″ righty saw significant action out of the Cubs bullpen in 2014 but threw only 7 1/3 innings last season while posting a 7.36 ERA.  Schlitter has posted some strong minor league numbers over his career and (of particular interest to Colorado) he has a 60.7% grounder rate over the last two years in Chicago.
  • The Cubs signed righty Drew Rucinski.  Rucinski has a 6.28 ERA over 14 1/3 career IP with the Angels, and was both designated for assignment and then outrighted by the Halos last September.  He has a career 3.88 ERA, 2.98 K/BB rate and 8.1 K/9 over 326 2/3 career minor league frames.
  • The Indians announced that catcher Adam Moore has been re-signed.  Moore has appeared in each of the last seven Major League seasons, though aside from a 60-game stint with the Mariners in 2010, he’s never appeared in more than nine games in any one campaign.  This included 2015, when he played one game for Cleveland.  The veteran catcher has posted a strong .291/.356/.465 career slash line over 2946 minor league PA.
  • The Athletics re-signed catcher Carson Blair.  Blair made his MLB debut in 2015, receiving 35 PA over 11 games with the A’s.  The catcher posted some solid numbers over eight minor league seasons but struggled in his first taste of Triple-A action this season.  Oakland outrighted Blair off its 40-man roster earlier this month.
  • The Dodgers re-signed right-hander Matt West.  Los Angeles originally purchased West from the Blue Jays in May.  He appeared in two games for the Dodgers and spent most of 2015 in the minors, posting a cumulative 3.54 ERA over 53 1/3 innings but was hit hard in a stint at Triple-A Oklahoma City.  West was a second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2007 draft.
  • The Pirates signed righty reliever Curtis Partch.  The 28-year-old owns a 95mph fastball but that heater has only recently translated to big strikeout totals on the minor league level, and he has a 4.74 ERA over 820 IP in the minors.  Partch posted a 4.75 ERA, 24 walks and 22 strikeouts over 30 1/3 relief innings with the Reds in 2013-14.
  • The Padres signed right-handers Johnny Hellweg and Daniel McCutchen.  Once a notable prospect in Milwaukee’s system, Hellweg underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and struggled in 61 minor league innings last year after returning from injury rehab.  McCutchen has appeared in one Major League game since 2012 and bounced around with a few teams before catching on with San Diego’s Triple-A affiliate last year.
  • The Cardinals signed right-hander Deck McGuire, best known for being picked 11th overall by the Blue Jays in the 2010 draft.  McGuire has a 4.57 ERA, 7.4 K/9 and 2.26 K/BB over 713 1/3 career minor league IP.
  • The Royals re-signed veteran righty Roman Colon and catcher J.C. Boscan.  Colon recorded 187 1/3 MLB innings from 2004-12 but hasn’t pitched in an affiliated minor league since 2013.  Boscan will be returning for his 20th season of pro ball after spending last season with Triple-A Omaha.  He’s received a few Major League cups of coffee over his long career, appearing in 17 games with the Braves and Cubs from 2010-13.
  • The Braves signed corner infielder Brandon Snyder.  Snyder, picked 13th overall by the Orioles in the 2005 draft, appeared in 83 career MLB games with Baltimore, Texas and Boston from 2010-13.  The 29-year-old spent much of last season at the Orioles’ Double-A affiliate.

International Notes: Thames, Lee, Cuba

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Korean stars Jae-gyun Hwang and Byung-ho Park may soon be joining countryman Jung-ho Kang in making the KBO to MLB transition. (Hwang will be posted next Monday, while Park is in a negotiating window with the Twins.) But perhaps the most interesting trans-Pacific baseball story is playing out on the Korean peninsula. Former big league outfielder Eric Thames was recently named the 2015 KBO MVP. Thames, who just turned 29, showed some pop and promise in North America, but never quite seized an opportunity and moved to Korea after he failed to receive a big league call-up in his age-26 campaign. All he’s done since is devastate his new league, putting up consecutive seasons with an OPS of over 1.100.  Thames is under contract with the NC Dinos for one more campaign, but figures to draw strong interest from Japan’s NPB as well as major league organizations if he can post anything approaching his 2015 numbers, which were ridiculous even for the hitter-friendly KBO: .381/.497/.790 with 47 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances.

If you’re interested in taking a peek at Thames’ exploits, check out this Naver Sports highlight video. Here are some other notes on the international market:

  • Free agent first baseman Dae-ho Lee — a South Korean who has been playing in Japan — will visit the United States in early December to meet with MLB clubs, according to another report from Yoo. The 33-year-old power hitter is drawing interest from “multiple” teams, his Korean agency (Montis) tells Yoo. He’s already shown he ability to excel in both the KBO and NPB and last year was his best in Japan, as he slashed .282/.368/.524 with 31 home runs.
  • While the Asian markets have grabbed much of the recent attention, Cuba remains a hotbed for international activity. Baseball America’s Ben Badler has the latest on a variety of intriguing players from the neighboring island. The Reds appear to be in the lead to sign slick defender Alfredo Rodriguez, says Badler, while the Cubs and Dodgers are expected to lead the charge on other bonus-pool-bound players that become eligible to sign out of Cuba.
  • Badler also has some updates on a group of other touted players. Outfielder Guillermo Heredia and righty Vladimir Gutierrez are training in Florida and holding private workouts, while pitchers Norge Ruiz and Cionel Perez are set to hold showcases in the coming weeks.

Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price

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The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.

Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.

Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.

Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.

Cubs Acquire Rex Brothers

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The Cubs announced today that they have acquired left-handed reliever Rex Brothers from the Rockies in exchange for minor league lefty Wander Cabrera. Brothers, who was designated for assignment last week, will be added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster.

The 27-year-old Brothers once looked like a potential stalwart in the Colorado bullpen and perhaps even the team’s future closer. The former No. 34 overall draft pick (2009) pitched to a combined 2.82 ERA with 218 strikeouts in 175 2/3 innings for the Rockies from 2011-13 and totaled 19 saves in that ’13 season. His 11.2 K/9 rate in that time was enough to help him offset sub-par control (4.8 B/9 rate), but his problems locating the ball have worsened significantly in the past two seasons.

Brothers has walked 47 hitters in his past 66 2/3 Major League innings and in fact spent most of the 2015 season at Triple-A, where his control was even worse. Though Brothers fanned a highly impressive 61 batters in 42 1/3 innings this season, he also issued a woeful 44 walks — more than one per inning. The Cubs will look to find the source of his location troubles in an effort to get him back on the right track to being a long-term bullpen piece. Brothers is arbitration eligible this winter, so the Cubs will have to make a relatively minor financial gamble as a result of this move. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $1.5MM salary for Brothers based on his pre-arb work, though that sum is less consequential to the Cubs than to many other teams. If Brothers turns it around in Chicago, he can be controlled through 2018.

In return, the Rockies will receive Cabrera, a Dominican left-hander that just turned 18 earlier this month. Cabrera’s first season of pro ball was 2015, in which he logged a 2.34 ERA with a 47-to-23 K/BB ratio in 42 1/3 innings playing in the Dominican Summer League. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper notes (via Twitter) that Cabrera received a $250K signing bonus from the Cubs in 2014. He features a 92 mph fastball (plenty of velocity for a lefty) and a “usable” curveball at present, per Cooper.

Relief Market Notes: Hunter, Nationals, Mets, Zagurski

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Right-hander Tommy Hunter is drawing interest on the free agent market, with the Padres, Tigers and Indians among the clubs teams intrigued by the former Orioles setup man, reports Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com. Hunter, 30 next July, split the season between the O’s and Cubs, though he enjoyed considerably more success in Baltimore than in Chicago. Hunter was surprisingly traded in exchange for Junior Lake in July after 44 2/3 innings of 3.63 ERA ball (3.38 FIP) but saw that mark soar to 5.74 (5.11 FIP) in 15 2/3 innings with the Cubs. Those late struggles notwithstanding, Hunter has a 3.26 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against just 1.7 BB/9 across 207 1/3 innings dating back to 2013, so he figures to draw further interest as the offseason wears on.

Here are a few more notes from the relief market…

  • MLB.com’s Bill Ladson joins others in characterizing the Nationals’ interest in Darren O’Day as serious, though he also notes that some clubs could offer O’Day the opportunity to close games, which Washington cannot currently promise. The market for O’Day is deep, Ladson adds, but he could be a much-needed reliable setup man for the Nats, who are “looking to trade” Drew Storen.
  • We’ve heard varying reports on the Nationals’ interest in shipping out Storen and Jonathan Papelbon, but Jayson Stark tweets that executives from three clubs have told him that the Nats are pushing to trade both righties. The club’s plan would be to rebuild the back of its relief corps with new acquisitions. Of course, as I explained in the Nationals’ offseason outlook, Washington is in need of pen additions regardless of what it does in the late innings.
  • The Mets’ bullpen focus, meanwhile, is on adding a lefty, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. New York seems prepared to give Josh Smoker a chance at cracking the pen after adding him to the 40-man roster. And the team has indicated interest in bringing back Jerry Blevins. But a surer thing would be preferable, says DiComo, who says the team is prioritizing the acquisition of a quality LOOGY this winter.
  • Former big league lefty Mike Zagurski is hoping to return to the U.S. after pitching in Japan last season, MLBTR has learned. Zagurski has struggled in a handful of Major League chances but has a 2.68 ERA with 12.0 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 in parts of six Triple-A seasons. The 32-year-old posted a 2.40 ERA in Japan last year, albeit in a small sample of 15 innings.

Free Agent Starter Notes: Price, Zimmermann, Buehrle

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Here are some items about some notable pitchers on the open market…

  • David Price and Jordan Zimmermann have both been cited as Cubs targets this winter, and ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers looks at the pros and cons for signing each starter for the Northsiders.
  • A reunion between Mark Buehrle and the White Sox is probably unlikely, MLB.com’s Scott Merkin writes as part of a reader mailbag, since adding Buehrle would give the Sox five left-handers in the rotation.  It isn’t yet clear if Buehrle plans to pitch in 2016 but at least 10 teams have shown interest if he did come back for another season.
  • Colby Lewis underwent meniscus surgery after the season and will have a checkup on his progress around Thanksgiving, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports.  The Rangers are interested in re-signing Lewis but they’ll wait to see the results of the checkup before they revisit negotiations.
  • The Rangers have been aggressive in checking out the trade and free agent markets for a pitching upgrade, but Sullivan notes that the most expensive pitchers (i.e. Price, Zack Greinke) aren’t being targeted.  Beyond finding a new starter, the biggest help to the Texas rotation will be if Yu Darvish, Martin Perez, Derek Holland are all healthy next season.

Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman

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Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…

  • The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder.  Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
  • Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening.  It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere.  I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
  • The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel.  That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season.  Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
  • Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros’ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration.  We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
  • Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation.  “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it.  Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
  • The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe.  There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
  • Though Brett Gardner’s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader.  As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
  • Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary.  Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
  • Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League.  The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services.  The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
  • John Boggs, Trevor Cahill’s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”
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