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Cubs Notes: Stroman, Hughes, Brown, Burdi

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The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.

Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.

Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.

  • Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.

Cubs To Select Shane Greene, Recall Alexander Canario

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The Cubs are set to select the contract of veteran right-hander Shane Greene from Triple-A Iowa, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He adds that outfield prospect Alexander Canario, who’s already on the 40-man roster, will also be recalled for his Major League debut.

Greene, 34, has pitched in the Majors every year since 2014, albeit for just three innings in 2022. The former All-Star reliever experienced a stark dip in performance back in 2021 and has tallied just 26 2/3 innings from 2021-22, posting a 7.09 ERA in that time. He signed a minor league deal with the Cubs earlier in the summer and has since appeared in five games — all of them starts, interestingly — pitching to a 2.16 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 12.9% walk rate in a still-tiny sample of 16 2/3 innings. The Cubs have built him up since signing, and he’s totaled nine shutout innings with 12 strikeouts against three walks in his past two starts.

Whether Greene is used as a starter or initially added to the bullpen as a long reliever isn’t yet clear. The fact that he’s been starting and is stretched out enough to have thrown five innings in a recent start, however, gives the Cubs some options to consider in the season’s final month.

As for the 23-year-old Canario, he’ll make his big league debut just over two years after being acquired from the Giants in the trade that sent former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP Kris Bryant to San Francisco. While he’s not generally considered to be among the game’s very best prospects, Canario ranks 12th within the Cubs’ system at Baseball America, 14th at MLB.com and 24th at FanGraphs. He draws praise for his impressive raw power, above-average speed and strong throwing arm, but there are also concerns about Canario’s hit tool and penchant for strikeouts.

Shoulder and ankle injuries have limited Canario to 161 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this year, but he’s slashed .276/.342/.524 when healthy. He’s swatted eight homers in that time and popped 37 long balls across three levels (High-A, Double-A, Triple-A) during the 2022 season. However, Canario also fanned in 27.5% percent of his plate appearances last year and has struck out at a 28% clip so far in Triple-A this season.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Would the Brewers be a good fit for Pete Alonso? (21:10)
  • What will the Cubs do at first base next year and could Alonso be a fit? (24:50)
  • Could Alonso fit on the Twins? (26:35)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here
  • Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back? – listen here
  • The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here

Boras On Bellinger’s Bounceback Season

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Cody Bellinger’s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.

“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”

Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.

Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.

The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.

Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.

It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.

Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.

Latest On Michael Fulmer's Forearm Injury

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  • The Cubs placed Michael Fulmer on the 15-day IL yesterday due to a forearm strain, a particularly concerning injury for a pitcher with a lengthy history of arm problems.  Manager David Ross and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy spoke with reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times) about Fulmer’s injury, saying that he had been trying to pitch through discomfort, with the team trying to accommodate the issue with some extra rest in between bullpen outings.  “It wasn’t something we were like, ’Oh my gosh, if we pitch him, we’re in trouble.’  It was stuff we were monitoring,” Hottovy said.  “It’s no different than what we do with a lot of guys.  But he’s been grinding for a few weeks.”  Fulmer will undergo tests on his forearm, but the hope is that some extended rest in the form of an IL stint can get him back onto the mound soon.

Cubs Place Michael Fulmer On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs have put Michael Fulmer on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain.  The placement is retroactive to August 25.  The move creates a roster spot for Jordan Wicks, who has been promoted to make his MLB debut in a start against the Pirates tonight.

Fulmer’s checkered injury history includes an ulnar nerve transposition surgery in 2017 and a Tommy John procedure in 2019, so another forearm-related issue is certainly a major concern for the 30-year-old right-hander.  The severity of his current strain isn’t known, but it would certainly seem like Fulmer could miss more than the minimum 15 days, perhaps simply as a precaution given his past injuries.  As such, the possibility exists that Fulmer’s 2023 season could be in jeopardy, given the lack of time remaining on the MLB calendar.

Winning AL Rookie Of The Year honors with the Tigers in 2016, Fulmer’s injury-related absences eventually saw him move to full-time relief pitching, which gave his career a second act.  After posting a 3.17 ERA over 113 1/3 innings with the Tigers and Twins from 2021-22, Fulmer signed a one-year, $4MM free agent deal to join the Cubs last winter.

The bottom-line performance hasn’t quite been there, as Fulmer has a 4.47 ERA over 56 1/3 frames for the Wrigleyville squad.  However, a 3.96 SIERA basically matches Fulmer’s 3.80 SIERA from 2021-22, so it could be that things are just balancing out after a bit of good fortune in the previous two seasons.  Fulmer has greatly improved his hard-hit ball rate and whiff rate (both sit in the 90th percentile of all pitchers) and his 27% strikeout rate is the best of his career.  On the downside, Fulmer has struggled with his control for the second straight year, with his 11.6% walk rate ranking in the bottom 10th percentile of all pitchers.

A lot of Fulmer’s struggles came earlier in the season, as he had a 1.83 ERA over 34 1/3 innings and 32 appearances prior to a rough outing last Monday, when he gave up three runs over just a third of an inning against Detroit.  Since Fulmer also pitched a scoreless inning on Thursday, it’s probably safe to assume that his forearm strain didn’t emerge during that Monday game.

Fulmer’s absence creates another hole in Chicago’s bullpen, though Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (X link) writes that Brad Boxberger is set to make another rehab outing with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday.  Boxberger hasn’t pitched since mid-May due to a forearm strain of his own, but the veteran reliever looks to be on his way back to action.  The news isn’t as good for Nick Burdi, who has also been out since May dealing with appendicitis, but the righty is now dealing with ulnar nerve irritation.  More will be known about Burdi’s condition after he is re-evaluated in a few days’ time.

These bullpen injuries could explain why Drew Smyly will be headed back to the bullpen to provide some extra depth, while the Cubs turn to a younger arm like Wicks to try and fill the rotation gap left by Marcus Stroman (whose season is also in question due to a rib cartilage fracture).  It makes for a lot of pitching questions for a team in a pennant race, as the Cubs currently hold the third NL wild card spot and are still within range of the Brewers for first place in the NL Central.

Cubs To Promote Jordan Wicks

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2:07PM: Wicks will actually start today’s game, as the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Javier Assad will now start Sunday instead of today.

10:13AM: The Cubs are set to call up left-hander Jordan Wicks, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (X links).  There had been plenty of speculation that Wicks was on the verge of a call-up, and now the southpaw (who turns 24 on September 1) will get an early birthday present Sunday when he makes his MLB debut in a start against the Pirates.

Wicks was the 21st overall pick of the 2021 draft, drawing Chicago’s attention after a standout collegiate career at Kansas State.  That success has translated into a pretty quick rise through the farm system, as Wicks has now reached the majors a little over two years since his draft date.  Making his Triple-A debut just this past June, Wicks has a 3.82 ERA, 22.2% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate over the limited sample of 33 innings for Triple-A Iowa.

This was enough to earn Wicks at least one start at the big league level, as it is possible he might be quickly ticketed back to Triple-A after helping the Cubs get through an extended stretch of games.  Marcus Stroman’s injury seemed to herald Drew Smyly’s return to the rotation, but Chicago has instead decided to keep Smyly in the bullpen, creating the need for a new starter on Sunday.  Wicks has pitched beyond the fifth inning only once in his 20 minor league games this season, so Sunday’s game might be more of a piggyback situation, with Smyly or other relievers stepping in before Pirates batters can face Wicks for a second time.

Still, even a cup of coffee in the majors is a huge moment in Wicks’ career, and it can serve as an audition for a longer look once rosters expand in September, or going into next season.  Stroman can opt out of his contract and the Cubs might not exercise Kyle Hendricks’ club option, leaving some possible rotation spots open heading into Spring Training.  Wicks has an opportunity to turn some heads and get himself into that conversation, with his minor league resume already standing out.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Wicks 51st on his preseason top-100 listing, though Wicks has yet to crack the top 100 for either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline in their preseason or midseason rankings.  BA places Wicks as the eighth-best prospect in the Cubs’ farm system and Pipeline has him 10th, and all of the pundits feel he can become a big league-caliber starter in the middle or back of a rotation.  Wicks’ outstanding changeup is the highlight of his five-pitch arsenal, though his slider is the only other offering that shows above-average potential.  For more on Wicks’ development, James Fegan of the Chicago Sun-Times published a piece today with quotes from Wicks and Triple-A pitching coach Ron Villone about the youngster’s approach on the mound.

Cubs Outright Edwin Uceta

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The Cubs announced to reporters, including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times, that right-hander Edwin Uceta has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Iowa. There hadn’t been any previous indication he had been designated for assignment, so this move will drop the club’s 40-man roster count to 37.

Uceta, 25, has filled up the transaction logs in the past year. He finished last year with the Diamondbacks but has since gone to the Tigers, Pirates, Mets and Cubs on waiver claims, before now finally passing through unclaimed. Despite all of those claims, he’s only been able to make one major league appearance this year, a three-inning scoreless outing with the Mets. He missed much of the season due to surgery to address a torn meniscus in his left knee. Around those waiver claims and the injury issues, he’s only tossed 8 2/3 innings in the minors this year.

He has likely continued to draw interest based on his strikeout stuff in the minors in previous seasons. He’s now tossed 84 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 29% strikeout rate but an uninspiring 5.12 ERA thanks to a 13.1% walk rate.

By being the club to pass Uceta through waivers, the Cubs will be able to retain him without him taking up a roster spot. He lacks the three years of service time or previous career outright to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. However, he will qualify for minor league free agency at season’s end if he’s still not on the roster. He’ll be out of options next year but still has five years of club control remaining.

Cubs Moving Drew Smyly Back To Bullpen

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The Cubs are kicking left-hander Drew Smyly back into relief, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this evening (relayed by Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Smyly had been set to oppose lefty Bailey Falter for Sunday’s series finale in Pittsburgh; the Cubs’ starter for that game is now listed as to be announced.

It’s a moderate surprise, as Smyly was generally expected to hold onto a rotation spot after Marcus Stroman’s recent injury setback. The Cubs had used Smyly three times in relief last week but gave him the start on Tuesday in Detroit. That outing didn’t go well — the Tigers saddled him with a loss by plating seven runs in 3 2/3 innings — and the Cubs have decided to return him to a relief role.

Smyly had worked a scoreless inning in each of the aforementioned three bullpen appearances. That’s far too small a sample on which to draw any conclusions, particularly given a generally weak slate of opponents (Blue Jays, White Sox and Royals). Moving him to long relief allows manager David Ross to deploy Smyly in lower-leverage situations than he’d have taken on as a starter.

It’s certainly not the result the Cubs envisioned when re-signing the veteran southpaw last offseason. Smyly had turned in a 3.47 ERA over 106 1/3 frames a season ago. The Cubs guaranteed him $19MM over two years on a deal that also allows him to opt out at the end of this season. Smyly hasn’t come close to replicating last season’s run prevention, allowing 5.28 earned runs per nine across 124 1/3 innings.

On the one hand, the front office likely anticipated some amount of regression. Smyly had a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate a season ago, leading to estimators like SIERA (4.06) and FIP (4.23) that were above his actual ERA. They certainly wouldn’t have anticipated his ERA jumping by almost two runs, though. Smyly’s 21.2% strikeout percentage is actually a touch better than last season’s, but his walks are up slightly and he has had a very tough time keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed 1.81 homers per nine, the seventh-highest rate among pitchers with 100+ frames.

The Cubs are through seven days in a stretch of 13 consecutive game days. The quartet of Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad comprises the rotation. Chicago will have to find another solution for Sunday. They could try to patch things together with a bullpen game, though that’d run the risk of straining the pitching staff in advance of a crucial three-game series against the Brewers that begins the following day. Righty Hayden Wesneski is on the MLB roster and has starting experience; he struggled out of the rotation early in the year and has been working 2-3 inning relief stints of late.

If Chicago wanted to look to the minor leagues, they could go outside the 40-man roster. Prospect Ben Brown has been on the Triple-A injured list for three weeks. The Cubs optioned righty Caleb Kilian back to Iowa on August 15. Pitchers must spend at least 15 days on an optional stint before they can be recalled unless they’re brought back in conjunction with an IL transaction. The only way the Cubs could turn to Kilian by Sunday is if they place someone else on the shelf.

2021 first-round pick Jordan Wicks and former Marlins righty Nick Neidert are among the non-roster players starting games for Iowa. Chicago would have to select either player’s contract but has a pair of openings on the 40-man roster to accommodate a move if they so choose.

Brewers, Cubs Among Teams To Discuss Pete Alonso With Mets Before Deadline

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The Mets’ retool was one of the defining stories of the trade deadline. While it became clear in the weeks approaching August 1 that rentals like Tommy Pham and David Robertson would be on the move, New York’s course of action with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander remained a mystery until the weekend before the deadline.

In the wake of trading the future Hall of Famers to AL West rivals, Mets’ brass indicated they were prepared to take a step back in 2024 while focusing on the longer-term future. Owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope the club will be competitive next year but forecast a quieter offseason than the franchise has had in the past two winters.

The club’s less certain intentions for ’24 have raised some questions about Pete Alonso’s future. The three-time All-Star has one more season of arbitration eligibility. Even if the Mets aren’t rebuilding, there’s an argument for them to pick a clear direction regarding Alonso — either by trading him to a clearer contender or working to get an extension wrapped up.

[Related: What Path Should The Mets Pick With Pete Alonso?]

Last week, the New York Post’s Mike Puma wrote the Mets had floated Alonso’s name in trade talks prior to the deadline. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic shines some light on those discussions, reporting that the Brewers and Cubs were among the teams in contact with New York brass. Rosenthal suggests talks between the Mets and Milwaukee had more traction than conversations with the Cubs, though it isn’t clear how close New York got to a deal with any team.

Asked about Rosenthal’s report following the Mets’ loss in Atlanta tonight, Alonso reiterated to reporters that he “(loves) being a Met (and) representing the city of New York” (via Tim Healey of Newsday). The star slugger unsurprisingly didn’t provide specifics about the chances of an extension, noting he “(doesn’t) know what the future holds.”

If the Mets were to seriously consider moving him next offseason, Alonso would quite likely be the best hitter on the trade market. He’s one homer away from reaching 40 for the third time in his four 162-game seasons (and was on a similar pace during the shortened schedule). Alonso’s .224 average and .325 on-base percentage are narrowly career-low marks, though it’s possible his rate production was deflated by injury.

He sprained his left wrist on a hit-by-pitch in June, an injury that was initially expected to cost him three or four weeks. Instead, Alonso returned within 10 days. He hit just .155/.277/.366 between his return and the All-Star Break. Since the Midsummer Classic, he has a characteristically excellent .262/.359/.623 batting line.

Alonso is playing this season on a $14.5MM salary. That figure could push north of $20MM for his final arbitration season. That’s a notable sum but still below market value for an impact bat of Alonso’s ilk. The one year of remaining control would likely prevent the Mets from recouping a Top 50-caliber prospect in a trade, but there’d still be plenty of interest around the league.

Last winter, the Blue Jays shipped Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners before his final arbitration season. Hernández was a bit cheaper than Alonso will be — he eventually lost his hearing and is making $14MM — but wasn’t quite as good a hitter. Over the three seasons preceding the trade, Hernández hit .283/.333/.519. Alonso owns a .256/.341/.523 line going back to 2021 while playing his home games at a more pitcher-friendly environment.

It stands to reason the Mets would look to top the Jays’ return for Hernández. Seattle sent three seasons of club control over an above-average reliever (Erik Swanson) and a minor league pitcher (Adam Macko) whom Baseball America ranked the #10 prospect in the Toronto system after the trade. If another team acquires Alonso over the offseason, they’d be able to make a qualifying offer the following winter to partially backfill some of the prospect value they surrendered.

Each of Milwaukee and Chicago could check back in with the Mets about Alonso’s availability, though they certainly wouldn’t be the only teams with interest. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana to man first base down the stretch. He’s an impending free agent, while Rowdy Tellez seems likely to be non-tendered.

The Cubs have used Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario — both of whom are impending free agents — at first base since the deadline. They already parted ways with Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini earlier in the year. Prospect Matt Mervis is having an excellent season in Triple-A but scuffled in a 25-game MLB debut this summer. Even if the Cubs consider Mervis a likely everyday player going into ’24, they could certainly kick him over to designated hitter to accommodate a player of Alonso’s caliber.

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