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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you feel that the Yankees should be sellers? (17:25)
  • If the Rangers were to acquire Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger from the Cubs, would that make them the favorite in American League? (21:30)
  • What are the Blue Jays going to target at the deadline? (24:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

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Cody Bellinger is probably the top rental hitter who’ll be traded in the next two weeks. The Cubs have gotten excellent production for their $17.5MM rebound flier on the former MVP.

Bellinger went into Wednesday night’s action carrying a .308/.365/.523 batting line over 266 plate appearances. That’s well shy of his career-best 2019 season but right in line with his next-best work as a Dodger. By measure of wRC+, it’s the third-strongest rate production of his career and not far off his .267/.351/.581 rookie showing that ranks as his second-best season.

A left knee contusion cost him around a month between May and June. Since being reinstated from the injured list, Bellinger is raking at a .366/.408/.570 clip. The Cubs eased him back in defensively at first base but have kicked him out to his customary center field spot this month.

Bellinger isn’t hitting for the kind of power he once did, but he has seemingly made a concerted effort to get more balls in play. After striking out around 27% of the time between 2021-22, he’s going down on strikes at just a 17.7% clip this season. Last winter’s Brandon Nimmo contract illustrated how much value the league places on the handful of above-average defensive center fielders who can hit. For the first time in three seasons, Bellinger again seems to fall into that category.

The Cubs should and very likely will trade him. They’re six games under .500. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option for next season, so he’s an impending free agent. The demand for his services this summer figures to outweigh the value of the draft pick they’d receive if he declines a qualifying offer and walks in free agency.

If Bellinger indeed changes uniforms in the next couple weeks, let’s identify some fits (teams listed alphabetically within tiers):

Top Suitors

Astros

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has already linked the Astros to Bellinger. Houston general manager Dana Brown is on record about his desire to add a left-handed bat to a very righty-centric lineup. Even with Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field and Chas McCormick playing very well in center, there’s enough uncertainty for Bellinger to be a fit.

Righty-swinging Corey Julks has gotten the bulk of the playing time in left field. He’s on a hot streak and has a decent .279/.326/.402 showing on the year, but he’s not the kind of impact bat who’d firmly rule Houston out on upgrades. It’s tough to know what to expect from Michael Brantley given his repeated shoulder setbacks. Acquiring Bellinger while pushing McCormick to left field and Julks to the bench would balance the lineup from a handedness perspective and add some overall depth to an offense that has been closer to average than expected.

Giants

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Bellinger from their time in L.A. The Giants made a run at him in free agency last winter. They didn’t get him then, but the need is just as acute now. San Francisco has used rookie Luis Matos as its top center fielder over the past month. The 21-year-old is a very promising prospect but has started his MLB career with a middling .258/.327/.326 performance.

Bellinger would be a significant offensive upgrade and a defensive boost for an outfield that ranks 22nd in MLB at -8 Outs Above Average. Mike Yastrzemski could move to the corner opposite Michael Conforto, while Austin Slater stays on hand as a right-handed complement to the all lefty-hitting outfield. If Mitch Haniger returns before season’s end, he’d be a corner/designated hitter option.

Yankees

The Yankees are desperate for offensive help. Harrison Bader is one of the few productive regulars in their Aaron Judge-less lineup, but the corner outfield has been manned by depth types like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun (both now on the injured list), Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even after Judge comes back, one of the corner outfield spots is open.

Acquiring Bellinger would push the Yankees past the $293MM fourth competitive balance tax line unless the Cubs paid down the entire deal (thereby increasing the prospect return). New York has been reluctant to exceed that rather symbolic marker — there are no additional non-monetary penalties for doing so — but ownership and the front office could feel increased pressure to add to a floundering roster that is now outside the playoff picture. It’s easy to see the appeal of adding Bellinger’s left-handed bat to the Yankee Stadium short porch and a lineup that skews heavily to the right side.

Next Tier Down

Phillies

Any interest on Philadelphia’s part would probably be contingent on Bryce Harper holding up at first base. If the Phils are convinced he’s an everyday option there, they could kick Kyle Schwarber to designated hitter and leave open a corner outfield spot for Bellinger. (The Phils could also pursue Bellinger as a first base option if Harper can’t play the field, though that’d leave Schwarber in a corner outfield spot.) It might not be the top priority — rotation depth and perhaps third base are bigger concerns — but it’d be viable if Harper can defend. Phils’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to push in for big names.

Rangers

Texas has gotten strong production out of Leody Taveras in center field. They’ve patched things together in left field and at designated hitter, though, relying mostly on Ezequiel Durán to carry the offensive load wherever he’s played. Travis Jankowski has been a solid fill-in as part of that rotation, but Bellinger carries far more offensive upside than the journeyman Jankowski does.

Red Sox

Center field looked like a problem for Boston not too long ago. Adam Duvall has struggled since returning from a fractured wrist. Enrique Hernández is not having a good season. The Sox have gotten their awaited Jarren Duran breakout, though. The 26-year-old former top prospect is hitting a career-best .313/.364/.508 over 269 trips to the plate. He’s not a good defensive center fielder, but with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida locked into the corner outfield, there’s nowhere else for Duran to play. Adding another lefty-hitting outfielder to the mix is probably too much of a luxury buy for a club that could use pitching and middle infield help.

Longer Shots

Angels

Mickey Moniak has played well since assuming the center field role after Mike Trout’s hamate fracture. A short-term outfield of Taylor Ward, Moniak and Hunter Renfroe could theoretically be upgraded upon, but the Halos are a fringe contender at this point and Trout is expected back in August or September.

Brewers

Milwaukee hasn’t gotten a ton out of center field. Joey Wiemer has 12 homers and is playing good defense but has a .291 on-base percentage. Milwaukee could consider upgrades there or at first base, where Bellinger would be an upgrade on the currently injured Rowdy Tellez. They might have to pay a heavier prospect return to keep Bellinger within the division, though.

Guardians

The Guardians could certainly use an offensive jolt in the outfield. Myles Straw is one of the worst hitters among everyday players. He’s typically at least playable because of elite glovework and baserunning, but his public defensive metrics this season are average. This could work, although Cleveland is arguably too fringy of a contender to pursue a rental whom they’ll have little chance of re-signing. They’re only a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central but they’re two games under .500.

Marlins

Miami is relying upon 27-year-old rookie Dane Myers as a stopgap center fielder. Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be back soon to reclaim center. The corner outfield tandem of Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz is fine but not overwhelming. The Fish could use a little more offense, but outside help seems likelier to come on the infield or behind the dish. Bellinger’s contract could also be problematic for a low-payroll Miami club that probably isn’t keen on paying a $5MM option buyout at the start of next offseason.

Twins

This one is contingent on Byron Buxton’s health. If Minnesota doesn’t feel Buxton will be able to play anything other than designated hitter all season, there’s a case for making a run at Bellinger and pushing Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfield role. If they’re still holding out hope for Buxton’s late-season return to the outfield, this probably doesn’t work.

Dodgers

This would be very funny but it’s not happening.

——————————

San Francisco strikes me as the best fit for Bellinger altogether, assuming they’re still right in the Wild Card mix on August 1. The Giants have a lot of good position players but are short on star talent. One can argue whether the current version of Bellinger is an All-Star caliber player or a bit below that. Still, the chance to improve the outfield defense while taking some pressure off Matos to immediately hit against big league pitching should be a goal for Zaidi and his front office.

Cubs Release Rowan Wick

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The Cubs have released right-hander Rowan Wick, per Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register (Twitter link). Wick was already removed from the Cubs’ roster earlier this year so their 40-man remains full.

Wick, 30, once was a solid back-end reliever for the Cubs but has had a rough season here in 2023. From 2019 to 2021, he made 72 appearances for Chicago with a 3.18 earned run average. He struck out 26.8% of opponents while walking 11.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 44.1% clip. He racked up 11 saves and 12 holds in that time.

Things moved in the wrong direction a bit last year. His ERA ticked up to 4.22 as his strikeout rate dropped to 23.5%, while adding another nine saves and four more holds. The club decided to tender him a contract, with the two sides avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a $1.55MM salary. Wick didn’t crack the club’s Opening Day roster out of Spring Training and was outrighted at the end of March. Since he has over three years of major league service time, he could have rejected that assignment and elected free agency, though doing so would have meant leaving that money on the table.

He reported to Iowa, surely hoping to work his way back to the majors, but it has not gone according to plan at all. He has an ERA of 8.60 this year through 30 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. His 24.1% strikeout rate is strong but he’s walked 13.1% of batters faced. A tiny 49.5% strand rate is probably making that ERA look worse than it actually is, though he’s also allowed nine home runs, as 30% of fly balls he’s allowed have left the yard this year.

The righty will now head to the open market in search of his next opportunity. Although he’s clearly not had ideal results this year, he’s not too far removed from being a quality leverage guy at the major league level. There would be little harm in bringing him aboard on a minor league deal to see if he can get back on track. If he is able to earn his way back into a roster spot, the Cubs would remain on the hook for what’s left of his salary this year, with a signing club only responsible for the prorated league minimum for any time on the roster. He also still has an option remaining, allowing him to potentially provide a club with some roster flexibility.

Blue Jays, Astros Interested In Marcus Stroman; Astros Interested In Cody Bellinger

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The Astros “checked in” with the Cubs about two of the team’s biggest trade chips, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston inquired about right-hander Marcus Stroman and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger.  Either player would essentially be a rental pickup for the Astros, as Stroman and Bellinger are each widely expected to become free agents this winter — Stroman via an opt-out in his contract, and Bellinger in declining his end of a mutual option.

The Cubs are 43-49 after today’s loss to the Red Sox, and are facing an increasingly uphill battle in both the NL Central (though Chicago is the only NLC team with a positive run differential) and NL wild card races.  Unless the Northsiders go on a real hot streak over the next two weeks, it looks like the Cubs again be looking to sell some veteran players at the August 1 trade deadline.

Houston GM Dana Brown has cited both starting pitching and a left-handed hitter as his team’s two primary target areas heading into the deadline, and landing Stroman and Bellinger in one mega-deal would check both boxes at once, if such a blockbuster trade could be negotiated.  Of course, it isn’t known at this point whether or not the Astros’ inquiries were anything more than due diligence, and it may be yet some time before the Cubs determine whether or not to pivot into seller mode.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said yesterday that “there is nothing we want more than to add,” so if the Cubs are even still on the fringes of the playoff race, they might still opt to keep their roster mostly intact.

From a financial perspective, the Astros’ luxury tax number is approximately $218.2MM, as per Roster Resource.  This is well under the first $233MM tax threshold, giving Houston some room to add salary — such as the roughly $10.43MM still owed to Stroman and the $5.21MM owed to Bellinger, plus the $5MM buyout of his mutual option — while avoiding a tax bill entirely.  Houston were taxpayers in 2020, however, and it isn’t out of the question that they could absorb another one-year tax hit in the first penalty tier in pursuit of another World Series title.  Of course, Chicago isn’t entirely in salary-dump mode since the organization clearly wants to compete as early as 2024, so the Astros could make a deal for either player more likely by offering more of a prospect return than a financial return.  In that scenario, the question might be how much minor league depth would the Astros want to surrender for a rental player.

Starting with Bellinger, he would add some balance to a heavily right-handed Astros lineup, and strengthen an outfield that is missing both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley.  Alvarez is at least making some progress in his way back from an oblique injury, while Brantley’s status is still up in the air as he has experienced several setbacks in his recovery from shoulder surgery almost a year ago.  If Bellinger stepped into the regular center field role, Chas McCormick could spell Bellinger against southpaw pitching, and the McCormick/Corey Julks/Jake Meyers group would rotate through left field duty, with Alvarez getting most of the DH time when he returns.

Bellinger is hitting .301/.358/.524 with 12 homers and 11 steals (from 14 chances) over 257 plate appearances.  He missed about a month with a knee contusion that limited him to first base in his return to the field, but Bellinger has resumed his regular duty in center field and also regained his hitting stroke.  Bellinger had a scorching 1.209 OPS over his last 69 PA heading into today’s game.

Stroman has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 118 2/3 innings.  Despite below-average strikeout and walk totals, Stroman has done an excellent job of limiting damage (an elite 3.6% barrel rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (58.4% grounder rate).  A .251 BABIP has certainly contributed to Stroman’s success, but his knack at avoiding home run damage would likely translate well to any number of contending teams with decent infield defense.

As such, many teams will surely be calling the Cubs about Stroman’s availability, and another intriguing landing spot besides the Astros has already emerged.  The Score 670’s Bruce Levine reports that the Blue Jays (Stroman’s former team) “have expressed strong interest” in the righty’s services, which would count as a bit of a surprise considering the hard feelings that reportedly existed between Stroman and the Jays before he was dealt to the Mets in 2019.  However, Stroman expressed nothing but positivity about his old club when the Cubs visited Toronto last year, and assuming the Jays front office feels the same, a Stroman return would certainly bolster the rotation.

An inconsistent offense has perhaps been the Blue Jays’ bigger problem in 2023, as a rotation that was seen as a potential weak link has been more or less solid, due to Jose Berrios’ resurgence and Yusei Kikuchi’s ability to at least stick as a fifth starter.  However, Alek Manoah’s inexplicable first-half collapse makes him an x-factor going forward, even if Manoah looked sharp in his first start back after a month-long retooling process.  Hyun-Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery) is also expected back within the next few weeks, so technically, Toronto could have six viable starters and perhaps less of a pressing need to devote trade resources on a major arm like Stroman.

The Astros have a much clearer need for pitching, considering how injuries have drastically thinned the rotation.  Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both gone for the season, and Jose Urquidy is just starting a rehab assignment after missing two and a half months with a shoulder injury.  Framber Valdez has already been dealing with a sore ankle and left yesterday’s start with a calf problem manager Dusty Baker hoped was only a cramp.  If this wasn’t enough, Cristian Javier has been badly struggling over his last few starts, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France as the Astros’ most viable starters.

It simply isn’t a rotation that looks like it can contend for another championship, and even making the playoffs might be difficult for Houston given the Rangers’ lead in the AL West and the crowded nature of the wild card race.  Adding a starter in some form certainly seems like a must for the Astros, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive Brown will be in bolstering the rotation in his first trade deadline as a Major League general manager.

Cubs Acquire P.J. Higgins

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Per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, the Cubs have acquired catcher P.J. Higgins in a minor trade with the Diamondbacks in exchange for cash consideration.

It’s a homecoming for Higgins, who was drafted by the Cubs in the 12th round of the 2015 draft. He made his big league debut on the north side back in 2021 with a nine-game cup of coffee before getting a longer look in the organization the following season as the club’s third catcher behind Willson Contreras and Yan Gomes. Higgins made it into 74 games that season, slashing .229/.310/.383 in 229 plate appearances, good for a roughly average wRC+ of 97. In addition to his 236 innings of work behind the plate, Higgins spent time at both infield corners with the Cubs in 2022.

Despite that solid performance, Higgins was eventually designated for assignment by the Cubs during the offseason to make room for newly-signed catcher Tucker Barnhart on the 40-man roster. Higgins elected free agency shortly thereafter before signing with the Diamondbacks on a minor league deal shortly after the new year. In 2023, Higgins has hit well at the Triple-A level for Arizona with a .317/.407/.473 slash line (116 wRC+) in 58 games. Unfortunately for Higgins, he was blocked with the Diamondbacks by Gabriel Moreno, Carson Kelly, and Jose Herrera, all of whom were on the 40-man roster in Arizona.

Higgins now returns to Chicago, though he’s once again blocked by a trio of catchers on the 40-man roster: Barnhart, Gomes, and Miguel Amaya. That being said, Barnhart has struggled massively at the plate with a wRC+ of just 58 in 110 plate appearances this season, while Gomes was among MLBTR’s Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates earlier this month. Should the club move on from either Barnhart or Gomes in the near future, Higgins could have a path to a roster spot with the Cubs as the club’s third catcher. In the meantime, he figures to head to Triple-A where he’ll share time with Dom Nunez and Bryce Windham at the Triple-A level.

Latest On Dansby Swanson

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  • Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson is eligible to come off the IL for the first time today after suffering a left heel contusion just before the All-Star break. That being said, The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma relays that manager David Ross expects Swanson to be out for a least a little while longer. According to Ross, while Swanson’s heel improved over the break, he still is feeling “some pain” when running the bases. While Swanson is on the shelf, Nico Hoerner has slid from second base to shortstop, opening up the keystone for Christopher Morel.

Latest On Cubs' Deadline Plans, Marcus Stroman

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As the trade deadline on August 1 creeps ever closer, the Cubs stand as one of a handful of teams that has yet to make a decision regarding whether they will be buyers or sellers this trade season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer spoke to 670 The Score on Friday regarding the club’s plans. Hoyer asserted that “there is nothing we want more than to add” at the coming deadline, though he made clear the club was willing to pivot if buying at the deadline seemed imprudent.

The Cubs currently sit at a record of 43-48 following today’s win against the Red Sox, a record that will leave them seven games out of first place following this evening’s game between the Reds and Brewers. While the club’s +27 run differential is by far the best in the NL Central, Hoyer acknowledged that in order to justify buying at the deadline, “We need to make up ground on first place, and we need to make up ground on .500.”

Should the Cubs fail to do so over the next two weeks, the club seems poised to shop players like center fielder Cody Bellinger and right-hander Marcus Stroman to contending clubs. Stroman, whose lack of extension talks with the club has been well documented, told reporters (including Bruce Levine of The Score) today that he does not expect an extension offer from the Cubs prior to the trade deadline. Even if he’s traded, however, Stroman indicated he would have interest in returning to Chicago on a new contract during the offseason. Stroman can opt-out of the final year and $21MM on his contract after the 2023 campaign comes to a close, and seems all but certain to do so after posting a 2.88 ERA in 118 2/3 innings across his first 20 starts of the season.

Cubs Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick Matt Shaw

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with first round selection Matt Shaw, as first reported by Keith Law of the Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be paid the full $4.85MM slot value associated with the 13th overall selection.

Shaw, a University of Maryland product, was generally perceived as a mid-first round talent. He ranked 7th on Law’s pre-draft rankings, 13th at Baseball America and 16th for MLB Pipeline. Evaluators praise his hit tool and solid power potential. The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, the righty-swinging middle infielder hit .341/.445/.697 with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts during his final season in College Park.

While Shaw played shortstop for the Terps, reports suggest he’s likely to move to second base in pro ball because of a below-average arm. He’s expected to stick at the keystone and could potentially move quickly through the minors as an advanced college bat.

The Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner penciled into the middle infield for the next few seasons. If Shaw hits well enough in the minors to push to the MLB level within the next year or two, the extra depth would be a nice “problem” to have.

The Cubs Hit A Jackpot In Minor League Free Agency — Now What?

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Since the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel left them feeling burned for the first two seasons of the contract, ownership and the front office have eschewed spending on the bullpen. Rather than invest in high-priced relief options in free agency, the Cubs have spread out their bullpen investments over a series of small-scale additions, either on low-cost one-year deals or on minor league free agents. At times, they’ve had great success with the strategy (e.g. Andrew Chafin, David Robertson). Others haven’t gone so well (e.g. Brad Boxberger, Brandon Workman). They haven’t been burned by any big relief pitching commitments since Kimbrel, but they also have generally sat out on the top names on the market.

The merits of the strategy can be debated ad nauseum. On the one hand, it’s unequivocally a good thing to avoid being encumbered by any burdensome multi-year deals for relievers. On the other, the Cubs have the financial resources and payroll capacity to take such risks and withstand the missteps more than many of their smaller-payroll rivals. By steering clear of expensive, multi-year commitments they’ve also bypassed a number of quality relief options while trotting out bullpens with ERAs of 4.39 (2021), 4.12 (2022) and 4.01 (2023). Since 2021, Cubs relievers rank 20th in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.

It’s not as simple as stating, “You get what you pay for,” as player development plays an enormous role; the Guardians, for instance, have the second-best bullpen ERA in the past three years (3.30) despite signing just one reliever (Bryan Shaw) as a Major League free agent.

Relying on low-cost bullpen additions increases the importance of developing in-house relievers — which the Cubs have not done all that well — or striking it big in minor league free agency, where teams can potentially land multiple years of an effective reliever who’s not yet burned through his arbitration seasons. The Cubs’ lack of big investments and lack of development from the farm makes their biggest score in minor league free agency all the more important.

Mark Leiter Jr. has been nothing short of a godsend at Wrigley Field.

A 22nd-round pick by the Phillies back in 2013, Leiter (obviously) comes from a prolific baseball family. His father, Mark Sr., enjoyed an 11-year big league career. His uncle, Al, is a two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion who pitched in 19 Major League seasons. Leiter Jr.’s cousin, Jack, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Just two years ago, Leiter Jr. looked to be a footnote in the Leiter family baseball lineage. He didn’t pitch in the Majors from 2019-21, despite solid numbers with the Tigers’ upper minors affiliates in ’21. When he quietly joined the Cubs on a minor league deal during MLB’s lockout — minor league free agency for players who didn’t finish the prior season on a 40-man roster or MLB injured list still continued during the stoppage — few thought much of it. Leiter looked like minor league depth and little more than that.

Perhaps that was how the Cubs saw things, too. Leiter didn’t break camp with the team in 2022 and was only summoned to the big leagues as a spot starter in mid-April. He started three games for the Cubs, yielded nine runs in 9 1/3 innings, and was optioned back to Triple-A Iowa. Over the next couple months, he was optioned back and forth a few different times, eventually moving into a full-time bullpen role.

For much of the season, Leiter was a nondescript swingman on a non-contending Cubs club. Trades of Scott Effross, David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens, however, opened enough space in the bullpen for the Cubs to call Leiter back to the big leagues and stick him in the bullpen for good. The results were excellent. Although he carried a 5.35 ERA into last year’s All-Star break, Leiter was summoned to the Majors on July 30 and dominated in the season’s final two months: 29 innings, 2.17 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate, 50% ground-ball rate, three saves, four holds.

Even with that big finish to the season, however, Leiter didn’t stick on the Cubs’ 40-man roster all winter. Chicago held onto Leiter into January but ultimately chose to designate him for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Eric Hosmer (who’d eventually be released in June).

Perhaps it was Leiter’s lack of a power fastball, his spotty track record, his status as an out-of-options pitcher, or the fact that most clubs had already filled their 40-man rosters by mid-January and didn’t want to adjust — whatever the reason, Leiter cleared waivers. He elected free agency and re-signed with the Cubs less than two weeks later. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, manager David Ross and the rest of the Cubs brass have to be thrilled with that outcome.

This time around, Leiter wound up breaking camp with the team — and it’s hard to imagine where they’d be without him. In 36 2/3 innings, Leiter carries a 3.19 ERA with a career-high 34.7% strikeout rate against a tidy 8.0% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 48.8% clip, allowed just three home runs (0.74 HR/9), picked up three more saves and piled up 13 holds. The Cubs were hoping that offseason signees like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer could hold down late-inning roles, but it’s been Leiter who’s stepped up as the team’s most reliable setup man.

Leiter doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater, but both his four-seamer and sinker take a backseat to his splitter anyhow. It’s a tumbling offering that opponents have hammered into the ground at a 52.9% clip… when they put the ball in play. Leiter carries a mammoth 49.2% whiff rate on the splitter, which is a huge reason that opponents are batting just .088/.186/.132 in the 102 plate appearances he’s ended with that pitch. Unsurprisingly, after throwing the pitch at a 22.7% clip last year (per Statcast), he’s ramped that usage rate up to 35.8% in 2023. It’s now his most-used pitch.

He’s had some rough outings recently, allowing a total of four runs in his past three innings, but the overall results this season have nevertheless been excellent. In fact, dating back to July 30 of last season, when Leiter was called to the big leagues for good, he’s now sporting a 2.74 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 49.3% grounder rate and 0.69 HR/9 mark. Leiter has been proof that not all high-leverage arms need to feature triple-digit fireballs that blow opponents out of their socks.

Cubs management surely hopes the team can come firing out of the gates and play its way back into contention. The Cubs’ schedule coming out of the break, after all, isn’t exactly formidable. They’ll kick things off with three against the Red Sox before playing their next 13 games against the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox — three of the worst teams in the Majors this season. It’s quite possible the Cubs can indeed climb back into the division race.

If, however, the Cubs continue to flounder and/or the Reds and Brewers pull away, Leiter is likely to draw some trade interest. Normally, a pitcher with more than three years of club control wouldn’t be a trade candidate for a team like the Cubs, who if not this year hope to contend in 2024. But Leiter is 32 — 33 next March — and only came to them on a minor league deal. If another club is willing to give up some actual prospect value, it’d be hard not to give serious consideration to the scenario.

Leiter’s emergence is a feel-good story — a 22nd-round pick that was never a top prospect despite coming from a high-profile baseball family, he hung on when his career looked lost, clawed back to the big leagues in his 30s and now finds himself as a valuable arm in a big league bullpen. More than that, however, his emergence could put the Cubs in a quandary — if they’re not able to turn their fortunes. Hang onto a quality reliever for his final three years of team control, or sell high and trade a 32-year-old who’s effectively “found money” for them when he’s at peak value? These are the types of decisions the Cubs will face over the next few weeks, making their immediate performance following the deadline a particularly important component of this year’s deadline season.

Cubs Place Dansby Swanson On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed shortstop Dansby Swanson on the 10-day injured list due to a left heel contusion.  The placement is retroactive to July 6.  Miles Mastrobuoni was called up from Triple-A to take Swanson’s spot on the active roster.

Swanson made an early exit from Wednesday’s game due to the injury, which occurred while he was running the bases.  The injury doesn’t appear to be particularly serious, as Cubs manager David Ross told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson) that Swanson might have been available if necessary in Chicago’s game yesterday.  However, since Swanson had already decided to skip the All-Star Game due to his heel problem, the club has apparently opted for a 10-day IL stint to allow the shortstop to fully heal up.  The All-Star break will automatically absorb four of the 10 minimum days Swanson must miss, helping minimize his absence from Chicago’s lineup.

The Cubs are an underwhelming 41-46 as the break approaches, and the club is seven games out of both the NL Central lead and a wild card berth.  It certainly wasn’t what the Wrigleyville denizens were hoping for after the Cubs made some notable moves in the offseason, highlighted by their seven-year, $177MM free agent contract with Swanson.  While a lot has gone wrong for the Cubs in the first half, Swanson has been living up to his end of the deal, hitting .258/.343/.409 with 10 homers over 367 plate appearances.  Between his 108 wRC+ and his spectacular glovework at shortstop, Swanson has 2.9 fWAR, a total bested by only 18 position players in baseball.

Nico Hoerner has moved over from second base to shortstop in Swanson’s absence over the last two games, and will likely continue to fill in until Swanson returns.  The hot-hitting Christopher Morel will probably get most of the second base action, with Patrick Wisdom getting more time at third base if Morel is at the keystone.  Chicago is a little shorthanded in the middle infield since Nick Madrigal is sidelined with a hamstring strain, though with Swanson maybe missing only 10 days in total, the Cubs likely have enough to get by until the All-Star break.

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