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Diamondbacks Listening To Trade Offers On Andrew Chafin, Joe Mantiply

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11:40am: Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Cubs and Twins as fits for Chafin. The Cubs have Anthony Kay as their only traditional lefty reliever right now. The Twins have Jovani Moran and Caleb Thielbar, the latter of whom just returned from the injured list.

11:06am: The Diamondbacks made a big addition to their bullpen yesterday when they acquired Paul Sewald from the Mariners. It seems they have at least some openness to now subtracting from their relief corps, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports they have fielded offers for lefties Andrew Chafin and Joe Mantiply, with the Brewers listed as a team with interest in Chafin.

On the surface, it’s a little bit curious to see the Diamondbacks considering this path, as they just parted with infielder Josh Rojas, rookie outfielder Dominic Canzone and infield prospect Ryan Bliss in order to upgrade their bullpen with Sewald. They are currently tied with two other clubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. To now turn and remove pieces from the group would be a bit of an odd move, though listening on offers doesn’t necessarily mean the club will indeed make a move, as front offices are generally open to listening on all offers in order to gauge the market.

Chafin, 33, has long been one of the better lefty relievers in the league, with a 3.31 career earned run average over 519 appearances. Over 2021 and 2022, he made 135 of those appearances, posting a 2.29 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 47.9% ground ball rate. The Diamondbacks were able to bring him aboard on a one-year deal this offseason, guaranteeing him $6.25MM in the form of a $5.5MM salary plus a $750K buyout on a $7.25MM club option. There’s also $1MM in bonuses available, with Chafin getting $250K at 55, 60, 65 and 70 appearances, then another $250K bonus if he’s traded.

He has already made 43 appearances on the year, putting him close to triggering those bonuses. His 4.19 ERA in that time is obviously a drop-off from his recent work, though there’s still some decent numbers under the hood. His 35.4% grounder rate and 12% walk rate are less than ideal, but his 32.7% strikeout rate is easily a career best. A .350 batting average on balls in play has probably helped some extra runs across the board, leading to a 3.13 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

Left-handed relief is always in demand and there would likely be plenty of clubs willing to look past Chafin’s ERA, especially given his long track record of success and intriguing strikeout bump. Rosenthal says the Diamondbacks are still looking for starting pitching, something that general manager Mike Hazen has long been open about. They might not be able to flip a reliever like Chafin for meaningful help in the rotation but it makes sense that they would at least listen to see what’s possible. They would still have Kyle Nelson and Tyler Gilbert as lefties in their bullpen even without Chafin.

Arizona listening on Mantiply is far easier to understand. He had a really solid showing in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.07 ERA in 2021 and 2022, getting selected to the All-Star game in the latter season. He struck out 23.6% of opponents in that time while walking just 5.5% and kept the ball on the ground at a 50.5% pace.

Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to carry that into 2023, as he has a 5.74 ERA in 15 2/3 innings. He’s been on the injured list twice, once due to left shoulder inflammation and then a right hamstring strain. He’s been sent to Triple-A Reno on optional assignment twice, the second of which is currently ongoing. He has a 7.30 ERA down at that level. But his rate stats are still decent this year, with poor strand rates and some extra fly balls leaving the yard perhaps making things look worse than they actually are. If any club is willing to bank on Mantiply’s past results and hope for a bounceback, it would make sense for the Diamdondbacks to hear that out since he’s not even on their active roster at the moment.

The Brewers have operated with one lefty, Hoby Milner, for most of the year. They had Justin Wilson come off the injured list this week after over a year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he quickly landed right back on the IL due to a lat strain. They’re a fairly sensible landing spot for a southpaw reliever as they battle with for the Central division title or a Wild Card spot in the National League.

Rays Acquire Adrian Sampson, Manuel Rodriguez From Cubs

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The Rays announced they have acquired pitchers Adrian Sampson and Manuel Rodriguez and international free agent bonus pool space from the Cubs for minor league pitcher Josh Roberson. Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic first reported the deal.

Sampson, 31, joined the Cubs’ rotation in late June last year as the team dealt with injuries to Marcus Stroman, Drew Smyly, and Wade Miley.  The journeyman righty was surprisingly able to stick, putting together 19 starts with a 3.28 ERA.  Sampson’s low strikeout rate suggested that level of success was unsustainable, but it was enough for the Cubs to retain him on a $1.9MM arbitration deal.

After losing the Cubs’ fifth starter battle out of camp this year to Hayden Wesneski, Sampson was optioned to Triple-A.  In May he hit the IL after a meniscal debridement procedure on his right knee and was bounced from the team’s 40-man roster once he recovered.  To retain his career-best salary, Sampson could not reject the Cubs’ outright.  Sampson has struggled mightily in his 23 innings at Triple-A this year, but the Cubs were able to clear his remaining $633K salary by including Rodriguez and the international free agent bonus pool space.

The Rays are the next stop for Sampson, who pitched in KBO in 2020 and was with the Rangers, Mariners, and Pirates before that.  Until the Rays decide to add Sampson to their 40-man roster, he’ll head to the Triple-A Durham Bulls to serve as extra depth.  Yesterday, the Rays picked up Aaron Civale in a trade with the Guardians, sending Taj Bradley back to Triple-A as a result.

Though Sampson has nearly 300 big league innings to his name, Rodriguez could be the bigger get for Tampa Bay.  Rodriguez, a 26-year-old righty reliever, logged a total of 31 1/3 innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen in 2021-22 to limited success.  The Cubs bumped him from the 40-man roster in January to make room for Julian Merryweather, and Rodriguez cleared waivers and was sent outright to Iowa.

The Cubs have been unable to find room for Rodriguez back on their 40-man or in their big league bullpen this year, despite a relief corps that has struggled at times.  Rodriguez worked around 96-97 miles per hour in the Majors, and this year at Triple-A he’s posted interesting numbers despite a BABIP-inflated 4.42 ERA.  In 38 2/3 innings, Rodriguez has managed to punch out nearly a third of batters faced, though he’s walked more than 10%.  He also sports a groundball rate of 58.4%, which has resulted in only two home runs allowed all year.  Like so many Rays relief pickups, this could be an underrated move.

The Cubs add Roberson, a 27-year-old righty reliever who has toiled in the minors since being drafted in the 12th round out of University of North Carolina Wilmington back in 2017.  The Rays picked Roberson up as the player to be named later to complete the deal that sent Louis Head to Miami in November 2021.  Roberson reached Triple-A for the first time this year, and has posted a 4.50 ERA, 25.7 K%, 13.2% BB%, and 41.1% groundball rate in 36 innings.

Statistically at least, Rodriguez is having a better year at Triple-A than Roberson.  Perhaps the Cubs have a good scouting report on Roberson; before the season Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote of “slam dunk big league stuff undercut by 20-grade command.”  The salary relief the Cubs are getting on Sampson is likely a factor here in this low-profile deadline day trade.

Cubs, Royals Swap Jose Cuas For Nelson Velazquez

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The Cubs and Royals have exchanged reliever José Cuas for outfielder Nelson Velázquez, the teams announced. It’s a one-for-one swap.

Cuas, 29, bounced around the minors before cracking Kansas City’s roster last summer. He has made 92 appearances in middle relief over the past two seasons. The right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA across 79 1/3 career innings. He has seen a big jump in whiffs year-over-year, pushing his strikeout rate from a modest 18.9% as a rookie to 27.1% this season. He’s picking up swinging strikes on an above-average 13.3% of his offerings.

The University of Maryland product works with a sinker-slider mix from a lower arm slot. He doesn’t throw especially hard but has missed plenty of bats with his low-80s slider. He’ll step into the middle innings mix and can bounce between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa for a while. He still has two minor league options year remaining and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least after the 2024 campaign.

In exchange, the Royals get a look at Velázquez. A right-handed hitting outfielder, he picked up some prospect attention on the strength of his power potential early in his career. The former fifth-round draftee struggled to a .205/.286/.373 line while striking out almost 32% of the time in 77 games as a rookie last season. He has mashed in a small big league sample this year but spent the bulk of the season with Iowa.

Over 330 trips to the dish there, the 24-year-old Velázquez owns a .253/.333/.469 batting line. He’s connected on 16 home runs but struck out in just under 30% of his plate appearances. He’s playing mostly center field but has generally been viewed as a better fit for a corner by prospect evaluators.

In recent years, the Royals have rolled the dice on a few upper level outfielders with above-average tools but swing-and-miss concerns. Kansas City has given looks to the likes of Edward Olivares and Drew Waters. Velázquez has a generally similar profile and will compete for reps in an uncertain outfield at Kauffman Stadium. He has one minor league option beyond this season and is at least two years away from arbitration.

Cubs Acquire Jeimer Candelario

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Jeimer Candelario is headed back to Chicago. The Cubs announced they acquired the switch-hitting third baseman from the Nationals for prospects DJ Herz and Kevin Made. The Cubs had an open 40-man roster spot after outrighting Edwin Ríos yesterday.

Candelario was one of the best rental hitters on the market after a strong four months in Washington. It was exactly what the Nats had envisioned when signing him to a one-year, $5MM free agent contract last winter.

Originally signed by the Cubs as an amateur more than a decade ago, Candelario made his big league debut with Chicago. His first stint on the North Side was short-lived. He played in five games in 2016 and 11 more the following season before being dealt to the Tigers in the Justin Wilson trade, as the Cubs pushed in young talent for veterans while trying to defend their World Series title.

Candelario got his first extended run down the stretch in Detroit and was an everyday player by the following season. He was a below-average regular for the first two years but took a significant step forward in 2020. Candelario carried that over a full schedule the following season, when he led the majors in doubles. Between those two seasons, he hit .278/.356/.458 in more than 800 trips to the plate.

As was the case for essentially everyone in the Detroit lineup, things fell apart in 2022. Candelario slumped to a .217/.272/.361 line over 124 games. The Tigers non-tendered him in lieu of paying around $7MM for his final season of arbitration eligibility. While it’s a move Detroit probably wishes they had back in hindsight, the subsequent $5MM free agent deal indicates the market didn’t value Candelario as a $7MM player just a few months ago.

The 29-year-old has certainly elevated his stock since that point. He has more or less regained his 2020-21 form. Candelario hit .258/.342/.481 through 419 plate appearances with Washington. He connected on 16 homers and 30 doubles, ranking fifth in the majors in the latter category. He’s walking at a roughly average 8.6% clip against a decent 21% strikeout rate.

Candelario has been better from the left side of the plate this season, a departure from his early-career work. He’d typically fared better against southpaws but now has similar platoon splits overall. Since the start of 2020, he’s a .253/.334/.438 hitter against right-handed pitching and owns a .256/.330/.437 line versus lefties. That well-rounded offensive production adds to a Chicago lineup built mostly on strong depth as opposed to impact talent aside from Cody Bellinger.

While his profile has mostly been built on offense, Candelario has also gotten solid reviews from public metrics for his third base defense this year. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him two runs above par in 834 1/3 innings of hot corner work, while Statcast has estimated him as four runs above average. Candelario had gotten mixed to below-average marks throughout his time in Detroit but should at least be a solid gloveman in Chicago.

He has some experience at first base as well but hasn’t played anywhere aside from third since 2020. The Cubs could plug him in at either spot but will presumably use him more often at the hot corner. Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Christopher Morel and Miles Mastrobuoni have been part of a revolving door at the position. Morel has raked but isn’t a good defender. Wisdom hits for power but doesn’t consistently put the ball in play; Madrigal has the opposite profile. Candelario is the most balanced of the group.

It’s a modest financial addition for Chicago. Candelario is due around $1.67MM in salary through year’s end. He’d tack on another $200K in incentives if he reaches 600 plate appearances, though that’s also fairly modest. As calculated by Roster Resource, the Cubs have a luxury tax number a bit north of $228MM.

That’s a little less than $5MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. It had seemed the Cubs were trending towards staying below that mark and selling away veteran pieces, but a recent eight-game win streak completely changed the calculus. The addition of one of the top rental hitters available affirms their status as buyers, which had already become clear when they took Bellinger off the trade market yesterday. They also added some middle relief depth tonight in acquiring José Cuas from Kansas City and figure to look for more impactful bullpen upgrades in the next 24 hours.

Candelario’s time in Washington proved fruitful for both parties. He revitalized his stock and now looks positioned for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll be one of the top hitters available in a below-average class for bats. The Nats never seemed likely to issue him a qualifying offer, but the trade officially takes that off the table. Players dealt midseason are ineligible for the QO, so Candelario will hit the market unencumbered by draft compensation.

The club adds a pair of players to a continually improving farm system. Made, 20, is a right-handed hitting shortstop from the Dominican Republic. He didn’t appear on Chicago’s midseason top 30 prospects at Baseball America but ranked 19th on the organizational list at FanGraphs. The outlet credited the 5’9″ infielder with roughly average tools and suggested he has an outside shot to be an everyday shortstop. He’s hitting .240/.328/.355 over 300 plate appearances with High-A South Bend. He hit just three homers there but walked at a solid 10% clip against a lower than average 18% strikeout rate.

Herz, 22, has gotten 14 starts with Double-A Tennessee. The former eighth-round pick owns a 3.97 ERA across 59 innings, striking out an excellent 30.4% of opponents but walking 14% of batters faced. He was 19th among Cubs’ prospects at Baseball America and 22nd at FanGraphs. He sits in the low 90s with his fastball and has an excellent changeup, but the obvious control woes lead most evaluators to point to a bullpen future. There’s little harm for the Nats in letting him continue to start in the minors. Herz and Made will have to go on the 40-man roster this offseason to stay out of the Rule 5 draft.

It’s the first of likely multiple deadline deals for the rebuilding Nats. Candelario was their most obvious trade chip. Middle reliever Kyle Finnegan could be on the move as well. Washinton’s top realistic trade piece would be outfielder Lane Thomas, though it remains to be seen how eager they are to deal him.

Michael Cerami and David Kaplan of Bleacher Nation reported the Cubs and Nationals were in discussions about Candelario. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Candelario was being traded to Chicago. Cerami was first with Herz and Made going back to Washington.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Outright Edwin Rios

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The Cubs have outrighted infielder Edwin Rios, according to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. There had been no previous indication that Rios had been designated for assignment. Chicago’s 40-man roster drops to 39 as a result of the move. Rios has the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, but would forfeit the remainder of his $1MM salary in doing so.

A sixth-round pick by the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Rios made his big league debut with the club in 2019 and thrived in a bench role with LA, slashing a phenomenal .260/.338/.634 in 139 plate appearances across his first two seasons in the majors. The following two seasons, however, weren’t as fruitful. From 2021-22, Rios battled hamstring and shoulder injuries while slashing just .183/.263/.365 in 152 plate appearances. That combination of injuries and ineffectiveness led the Dodgers to non-tender Rios this past offseason.

Upon departing LA Rios joined the Cubs, who signed him to a $1MM major league deal in hopes of Rios providing lefty power off the bench for the club. Things didn’t go according to plan for Rios or Chicago, however, as the now 29-year-old slugger slashed just .071/.235/.214 with a massive 47.1% strikeout rate in 34 trips to the plate. That performance was enough for the Cubs to demote Rios to Triple-A for most of the 2023 campaign despite the small sample size.

Now, more than a month removed from Rios’s last big league appearance, he’s off the 40-man roster entirely. Assuming he opts to accept his outright assignment in order to retain the remainder of his salary, Rios figures to serve as a depth bench option for the Cubs’ infield, though he’s blocked by the likes of Matt Mervis and Miles Mastrobuoni, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market

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The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you see the Marlins being sellers or buyers? (23:25)
  • Who are the Phillies targeting and who would they give up prior to the deadline? (26:35)
  • Who do the Tigers end up trading? And what can we expect in return? (28:50)

Check out our past episodes!

Cubs Still Evaluating Deadline Trajectory

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The Cubs beat their crosstown rivals this evening, pulling themselves within two games of .500 in the process. The North Siders now sit at 49-51, six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and 4 1/2 back of the three teams (Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia) tied for the last couple Wild Card spots.

With the club on the fringe of contention, the front office continues to evaluate whether it’s more prudent to add for a playoff push or move short-term veterans for future value. Before tonight’s win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote that the Cubs had yet to commit to a direction with the deadline a week off.

If Chicago were to entertain offers, they’d be able to market two of the top players available. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, no impending free agent hitter with a chance to move would be more impactful than Cody Bellinger. While he hasn’t quite recaptured his MVP heights, Bellinger has bounced most of the way back from two middling seasons to finish his Dodgers’ tenure. He’s hitting .314/.363/.540 over 292 trips to the plate and typically rates as an above-average to plus defensive center fielder.

Marcus Stroman would be one of the top pitchers on the market. The 32-year-old has struggled in July but still carries an excellent 3.09 ERA over 122 1/3 innings. He’s picking up ground-balls at a 57.8% clip, continuing his career track record of stifling opponents’ power output.

Both players are likely headed for free agency. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option. Barring injury, Stroman will do the same with a $21MM player option. Stroman has angled for a contract extension, but the Cubs are reportedly holding off on such talks as they consider trade options. Bellinger will be one of the top hitters in a free agent class light on impact bats. With top center field prospects like Kevin Alcántara and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the farm system and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on multi-year contracts, there’s an argument for the Cubs to prioritize players other than Bellinger past this season.

It has generally been assumed the Cubs would either trade both Bellinger and Stroman or neither player (depending on whether they decide to sell). However, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this evening that Chicago could also consider dealing Stroman while hanging on to Bellinger. That’s a result of the players’ respective qualifying offer status.

Stroman already received and accepted a qualifying offer in his career. Players can be tagged with a QO a maximum of one time. Bellinger has never received the offer. If the Cubs hold both through season’s end, they’d only be able to tender the QO to Bellinger. They’d get a draft choice if Bellinger signed elsewhere but no compensation if Stroman departed.

Beyond that duo, the Cubs have a handful of potential trade candidates. Kyle Hendricks is controllable for another season on a $16MM team option and carries a 3.38 ERA over 11 starts. Yan Gomes is a solid veteran catcher; his contract contains a $6MM club option for 2024. Michael Fulmer is an affordable rental reliever who has pitched well over the past six weeks.

Whether any of those players move could well be determined by the on-field results of the next six days. The Cubs wrap their series with the White Sox tomorrow. They’ll go to St. Louis for a four-game set through the weekend and play one game against the Reds (one of the teams they’re trying to track down) before the deadline.

Cubs Outright Adrian Sampson

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The Cubs reinstated right-hander Adrian Sampson from the 60-day injured list yesterday, tweets Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Rather than add the veteran righty back to the 40-man roster, the Cubs instead passed him through waivers, where he went unclaimed, and assigned him outright to Triple-A Iowa.

Sampson, 31, pitched to a strong 3.03 ERA in 139 2/3 innings with the Cubs from 2021-22 upon his return from the Korea Baseball Organization, although fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.28) and SIERA (4.44) were far less optimistic, in large part because of a pedestrian 17.6% strikeout rate. Sampson’s 6.1% walk rate was excellent, however, and he kept the ball on the ground at an only slightly below-average 41% clip.

That solid showing notwithstanding, it’s been a tough year for Sampson. The righty sustained a meniscus injury back April that would eventually require surgery. He’s pitched a total of 25 1/3 minor league frames this year and been tagged for an 8.17 ERA in that time. Sampson posted an ERA north of 8.00 in two appearances before the injury and in six appearances since returning.

As a player who’s been outrighted in the past, Sampson does have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, though he lacks the service time required to do so while retaining the remainder of his $1.9MM salary. That salary, paired with his recent struggles, surely tamped down interest in a potential waiver claim.

Given that financial commitment, he’ll surely accept an outright and remain on hand as a depth option for a Cubs team that could move at least one starter between now and next week’s trade deadline.

Rays Have Some Interest In Marcus Stroman

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The Rays could use some starting pitching and apparently have some interest in Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman. On the Onto Waveland podcast with Brett Taylor, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney, they relay that the Rays aren’t currently in on Cody Bellinger but are “doing homework” on Stroman. (Discussion around the Rays starts around the 29-minute mark.)

It’s fairly logical that the Rays would be interested in Stroman, who has a long track record of big league success and is having an excellent season. He has a career 3.55 earned run average in 1285 2/3 innings dating back to his 2014 debut. This year, his ERA is down to 2.88 through 20 starts. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate are both close to league average, but Stroman’s always been a ground ball specialist and his 58.4% rate in that department is his highest since 2018.

Despite Stroman’s contributions, the Cubs aren’t having a great season overall. They are 45-50, putting them 7.5 games back of the Brewers in the National League Central with the Reds in between, and seven games back in the Wild Card race as well. Perhaps a hot streak in the next week or so could change the calculus, but it seems fair to expect the club to consider selling off some players who aren’t part of their long-term plans.

Stroman has one more year left on his contract, set to make $21MM next year, but has the ability to opt out and return to free agency after the current campaign. Given his strong results, it will be a fairly easy decision for him to trigger that opt-out and secure a larger guarantee on another multi-year deal. He has been quite candid about his desire to stick with the Cubs via a long-term extension, but the club reportedly doesn’t share his same enthusiasm to work out a new deal. All those factors seem to point to Stroman being traded in the coming days and he was placed in the #6 slot on MLBTR’s list of top deadline trade candidates.

The Rays could use another starter, given that they have dealt with multiple significant injuries to their rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last year and was known to be a non-factor this year, but they have since lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending surgeries with Josh Fleming seemingly set for a significant absence as well. They still have a solid front four in Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, but each of those pitchers except for Bradley has been on the IL this year, leading the club to deploy bullpen games at various points.

Getting another starter into the mix would strengthen the overall group for the postseason push, but acquiring a rental could be a logical move for the Rays. Each of their four current starters are still under contract or under club control for next year. Baz could rejoin the rotation going into 2024, with Springs and Rasmussen potentially coming back in the middle of the next campaign as well. Getting a short-term fix would require the club to send a lesser return the other way, compared to a pitcher with a longer window of control. The Rays have already been connected to impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Lance Lynn, the latter of whom has a club option for 2024.

Stroman would also fit the bill, given his ability to opt out of his deal this fall. His ground ball tendencies would also be a good fit for a Tampa club that generally has strong defense. The Rays collectively have 16 Defensive Runs Saved from the shortstop position, the best mark in the league. Their 10 Outs Above Average at that spot are second only to the Cubs. Their tallies at second and third base are a bit lower but still above average. Their first base marks are subpar, but it’s still a solid group overall.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that Stroman’s opt-out does complicate his trade candidacy slightly. As mentioned, he’s currently looking like a lock to exercise that opt-out in a few months, given his good numbers on the year. But there’s always the risk of that situation changing after a deal. If the Rays were to acquire Stroman and he then suffered some sort of injury that would carry into next year, perhaps he would decide against triggering that opt-out, instead just taking the $21MM that he already has in hand.

Some clubs might be fine with taking that risk, but the Rays are one of the lowest-spending clubs among contenders. A $21MM salary might be a drop in the bucket to some clubs — but not to Tampa Bay. Their highest-paid player this year is Eflin, who’s making $11MM. They also have a big spike coming up next year, with Glasnow’s salary set to jump from this year’s $5.35MM to next year’s $25MM, a big financial outlay they made in order to push his free agency back by one year.

Per Roster Resource, the Rays have already committed $74MM to next year’s club, just shy of this year’s $78MM payroll. That’s before even factoring in arbitration raises for players like Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez, Jason Adam and others. The Rays often find ways to save money in the offseason by trading players with significant salaries, but they are currently trending to have a larger payroll next year. Although Stroman is likely going to be opting out, the Rays would be taking on at least some risk of an extra $21MM being added to that equation.

Any team acquiring Stroman would be in a similar situation, but most would have a bit more financial wiggle room. He is still likely to generate plenty of interest regardless and has already been connected to the Astros and Blue Jays. The trade deadline is on August 1, less than two weeks away.

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