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Interest In Pavano

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Yesterday I mentioned that Carl Pavano had his first healthy effort this spring, a major step towards a trade.  The Cards, Rockies, and Mariners have expressed interest in the past.

Today, a George King report indicates some other possible suitors.  King mentions that scouts from the Braves, Mets, and White Sox attended the game at which Pavano pitched.  Whether they were there to watch him is an open question, but it is reasonable.

A cross-town trade would be particularly interesting, although the Mets are not short on Pavano-like options.

Sean Tracey Hopes For Trade

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26 year-old White Sox starter Sean Tracey doesn’t have much chance of making the team this spring, and he hopes Kenny Williams can accomodate him with a trade.

Tracey posted a 4.30 ERA at Triple A last year.  His minor league equivalents: 6.27 K/9, 7.73 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9, and 10.07 H/9.  Pitchers with that kind of control aren’t exactly hot commodities.  PECOTA sees about a 10% chance he brings that walk rate under 5.0 per nine in the bigs this year.  Tracey throws in the low 90s with unimpressive secondary pitches and profiles as a reliever according to Baseball America.

He’s best known for being berated by Ozzie Guillen for failing to hit Hank Blalock with a pitch last year.  Give Tracey credit for trying twice.         

Alex Rodriguez And The Cubs

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UPDATE: In a related story, Jon Heyman of SI.com lists a slew of teams that inquired about Rodriguez’s availability this winter: the Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Indians.  Heyman says the White Sox and Dodgers were the most persistent.  None of the offers went anywhere given Rodriguez’s unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause.

Bob Raissman of the New York Daily News has an imposing mustache as well as some insight into Alex Rodriguez’s next possible destination.  The article involves Lou Piniella in his underwear as well as a lot of crying and one tender kiss.  I found it touching.

Anyway, Raissman believes, based on an upcoming HBO interview with Rodriguez, that a reunion with Lou Piniella in Chicago would be a dream come true for him.  Rodriguez responded to the idea thusly:

"He’s on a different team in a different league. My memories of Lou are in the present and the past, not the future."

This is not the first time Rodriguez has been connected to the Cubs.  Last July, later confirmed by other sources, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke news of the team’s trading deadline interest.

I would imagine that Rodriguez would not play shortstop for the Cubs for the duration of his 5+ year contract.  More likely to me: A-Rod plays shortstop for three seasons, through 2010. At that point, Derrek Lee’s contract will be up and Aramis Ramirez might be ready to shift to first base.  Ramirez is a Cub through 2011 or 2012.

Tim’s take – Chance of Alex Rodriguez signing with the Cubs in the ’07-’08 offseason: 15%.

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

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Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

Buehrle Turned Down Offer Last Year

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Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune reports that White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle turned down a contract extension worth around $33MM over three years last July.  Buehrle was quoted as having no regrets, but you have to wonder.  Would he take the same deal if the Sox offered it now?  Would the Sox still offer it after a 6.44 second half ERA?

Buehrle’s strikeout rate dipped to a dangerously low 4.32 per nine in ’06.  But the confusing part is that his two worst strikeout rate months were his two best ERA months (April and May).  He was pretty lucky those two months – in April he allowed fewer than 7 hits per nine, and in May he managed a 3.18 ERA with a very high 1.54 WHIP.

June was more Buehrleish – 3.89 ERA, nothing terrible flukey about his peripheral stats.  The wheels really came off in July, as he reeled off five consecutive poor starts.  He was bombed by the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins for an 11.48 ERA. Hits and HRs allowed went through the roof. 

Buehrle recovered to post a 4.34 ERA in August with normal peripherals, but two of his six starts came against the Royals.  He was battered around again in September, despite two good efforts against lousy offenses again.

After such a complete collapse, can anything be salvaged for Buehrle?  Can he keep his ERA under five this season and then return to prominence with the Cardinals?  PECOTA calls for 4.83, ZiPS for 4.36, and RotoAuthority for 4.39.  PECOTA would still give Buehrle an Adam Eaton-type contract.

White Sox Keen On Rowand?

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The Philadelphia Inquirer mentioned today that Aaron Rowand remains a favorite of White Sox management.  According to the paper, the Sox are expected to try to sign him as a free agent after 2007.  Of course, Kenny Williams and Pat Gillick seem to get along well these days, so a deal could be struck.  On the other hand, Ryan Sweeney or Brian Anderson could be a solid center fielder by 2008 for the league minimum.

Two days ago, Buster Olney mentioned that the Padres were kicking around the idea of sending a reliever to Philly for Rowand.

Buehrle Expected To Leave White Sox

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At SoxFest yesterday, there was an amusing back-and-forth between Kenny Williams and Mark Buehrle.  While they were in the same room, they exchanged barbs through reporters.

Buehrle feels Williams said directly that the southpaw would not be back with the Sox in ’08.  It seems that Williams alluded to that in a more roundabout way, however.  Bottom line: both parties seem to agree that Buehrle will price himself out of the White Sox’s range.

The lefty needs a major bounce-back season to snag the huge deal he seemed in line for before 2006.  He posted a 6.44 ERA in the second half of ’06.  He’ll probably give the Cardinals a decent hometown discount and eventually work something out with Walt Jocketty.  Still, would he take less than five years and $60MM?

The Cardinals could easily be Buehrle’s third team, as Williams might want to exchange Buehrle for some nice prospects before 2007 ends.  A lot will depend on the development of young pitchers and the team’s place in the standings.

White Sox To Sign Erstad

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Pending a physical, the White Sox will sign center fielder Darin Erstad to a one-year deal with an option.  The Sox don’t have much certainty in left or center field, so Erstad will have plenty of opportunity.  The average AL CF hit .275/.334/.437 in ’06, which is probably out of Erstad’s reach.

Brian Anderson seems to have fallen out of favor with Chicago, leaving Ryan Sweeney as Erstad’s main competition in center.  Scott Podsednik is expected to hold down left field again once he recovers from groin surgery, though he’ll have to hold off Josh Fields.

To hear PECOTA tell it, the Sox should go with Sweeney and Anderson at the same time above all other options.

Erstad Options

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According to Ken Rosenthal, free agent center fielder Darin Erstad is expected to choose a team this week.  The 32 year-old has a slight chance at signing with the Angels or Cubs, but is more likely to choose between the Marlins or White Sox.

It appears that Florida is Erstad’s best shot at regular playing time, given that his competition is Alex Sanchez.  With Chicago Erstad would split time with Brian Anderson and perhaps Ryan Sweeney.

Rosenthal reports that the Cubs hope to acquire a young, cheap CF to hold the fort until Felix Pie is ready.  This comes despite the recent proclamation that Alfonso Soriano would play center. Pie has an interesting PECOTA projection – Baseball Prospectus forecasts a .289/.342/.481 line from him as a 22 year-old in the Majors.

White Sox Considering Erick Aybar?

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In his latest blog post at ESPN, Peter Gammons mentions that the White Sox might pursue Angels shortstop Erick Aybar if Juan Uribe’s future remains unclear.  Joe Crede could be the trade candidate.

Aybar, who turned 23 yesterday, hit .283/.327/.413 in Triple A last year (equivalent to .234/.269/.328 in the Majors).  Baseball America ranks Aybar as the Angels’ third best prospect, behind Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart.  Aybar has come up in many trade rumors already in his career.  According to BA, Aybar handles the bat well and his glove, arm, and speed are plus tools. They see him as more of a bottom-of-the-order, defensive-minded SS.

My feeling is that swapping out Uribe and Crede for Aybar and Fields would make the Sox significantly worse in 2007…but it is just a trade rumor right now.

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