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Reds Sign Manager David Bell To Three-Year Extension

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The Reds have signed manager David Bell to a three-year contract extension that runs through the 2026 season, the team announced. His current two-year deal was set to expire at the end of this season.

Bell, 50, is in his fifth year at the helm in Cincinnati. The club went 75-87 in his first season before posting a slightly above-average showing (31-29) in the shortened 2020 schedule. Cincinnati made the expanded postseason that year but was promptly swept in the opening round without scoring a run.

It was a similar situation over a full season in ’21. The Reds hovered around .500 for the majority of the year. They were in possession of a Wild Card spot as late as mid-September but ultimately came up a bit shy of the postseason. After finishing 83-79, Cincinnati cut payroll and kicked off a retool.

The Reds dealt away a number of veterans both leading up to and immediately out of the lockout. A disastrous April portended a brutal 2022 season that saw Cincinnati lose 100 games for just the second time in franchise history. The Reds continued to deal away veterans at the deadline. After another relatively quiet offseason, few expected Cincinnati to make much noise coming into 2023.

After a middling first six weeks, the Reds have gotten hot. They’re 30-19 since the start of June, entering play Friday. They sit eight games above .500 overall and are firmly in the mix for a playoff spot. The Reds are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re in possession of a spot in a tightly-contested Wild Card picture.

Whether this’ll result in the second playoff appearance of Bell’s tenure is to be determined. Yet it’s hard not to view the first four months of this season as anything other than a strong success. Cincinnati has graduated a number of young players from the farm system. The likes of Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and Spencer Steer have been excellent from the jump. Elly De La Cruz has had an inconsistent first month in the majors but is one of the sport’s most talented young players. Injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have forced Cincinnati to use a patchwork rotation for most of the year, but they’ve managed to overcome that.

Now, the club finds itself in position to add to the roster within the next five days. Unsurprisingly, ownership and the front office appear pleased with the organization’s progress. They’ll ensure continuity atop the dugout by keeping their skipper from starting the offseason unsigned. Bell is the seventh-longest tenured active manager in the National League. The Reds have a 307-343 regular season record since he was hired but are trending towards a third above-.500 showing out of five.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds’ Reiver Sanmartin Undergoes UCL Surgery

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Reds reliever Reiver Sanmartin underwent surgery to repair his UCL earlier this month, the team informed reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). It isn’t clear if he underwent a full Tommy John procedure or something like the modified internal brace surgery, but it appears as if his season is over.

Sanmartin is already on the 60-day injured list. He landed on the shelf at the start of May with a stress reaction in his elbow. Apparently, there was also ligament damage that needed to be corrected. Assuming he’s done for the season, he’ll remain on the 60-day IL through year’s end.

The 27-year-old has pitched in parts of three seasons with Cincinnati. He owns a 5.77 ERA through 82 2/3 career frames. Sanmartin has induced grounders at a lofty 53.5% clip but posted worse than average strikeout and walk numbers. He’s controllable through 2028, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Cincinnati waived him at the start of the offseason rather than carry him on the 40-man roster throughout the winter.

The Reds provided updates on a few other injured pitchers (via Rosecrans). Hunter Greene will begin a minor league rehab stint next weekend; the club hopes he’ll be ready for the majors by August 20. Nick Lodolo is targeting an MLB return at the end of next month, beginning a rehab stint at a similar time as Greene. Vladimir Gutierrez and Tejay Antone are each beginning rehab work of their own after missing the entire season to date.

Latest On Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer

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The Mets’ sell-off began in earnest last night when they traded David Robertson to the division-rival Marlins, and further deals are widely expected to come together in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Veteran outfielders Mark Canha and Tommy Pham can be free agents at season’s end — Canha has a 2024 club option — and figure to hold interest to contenders seeking right-handed bats and/or general outfield help. But perhaps no two players will be of as much interest to fans in the next few days as future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Andy Martino of SNY reports that the Mets have thus far received “moderate” interest in Verlander but have not had meaningful enough talks to even approach the three-time Cy Young winner about waiving his no-trade clause. Scherzer has drawn less interest, per Martino.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported late last night that a pair of executives with other clubs believe there’s a real chance the Mets will ultimately trade Verlander. He listed the Rangers and Astros as potential fits, and Martino adds (without directly tying them to Verlander) that the Angels and Reds have been scouting the Mets of late. Feinsand adds that the Rangers were in on Verlander in the offseason, but the 40-year-old righty was more keen on signing with what he viewed as a contending club in Queens. It’s only reasonable to think he’d view the Rangers more favorably now; Texas is leading the AL West and owns the third-best winning percentage and top run differential in the American League. He’s certainly no stranger to pitching in Texas either, having spent several years with the Astros.

Obviously, there would be plenty of obstacles to any trade actually coming together. First and foremost, both Verlander and Scherzer have full no-trade clauses in their contracts. They’d have to approve any deal, although one can imagine that the opportunity to go from a struggling Mets team into the type of playoff chase both envisioned when signing in New York would be quite enticing. Both players are also earning a record $43.333MM annual salary on the contracts they signed in free agency — a massive number which would rule some contending clubs out entirely. Owner Steve Cohen could of course pay down some of that salary in order to facilitate a trade, but the specifics of how much cash to include and what caliber of prospects to send back for either multi-time Cy Young winner would be difficult to broker.

Beyond the contractual hurdles, the simple fact is that neither Verlander nor Scherzer has pitched as well in 2023 as in recent seasons. Verlander’s 3.24 ERA is a perfect match for his career mark, but this year’s 20.9% strikeout rate 8.2% walk rate are nowhere close to last year’s respective rates of 27.8% and 4.4%. Verlander’s 94.6 mph average fastball, 10% swinging-strike rate and 34.9% opponents’ chase rate are all down slightly from last year’s levels of 95.1 mph, 11.6% and 36.9%, as well.

Verlander, who missed the first five weeks of the season due to a strained teres major, is guaranteed $43.333MM this year and next. His contract contains a conditional $35MM player option for the 2025 season that would vest if he pitches 140 innings next year.

As for Scherzer, he’s sporting a 4.20 ERA that would be the second-highest mark of his career — his worst since a 4.43 showing way back in 2011. His 27.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate are down from his 2022 levels (30.6% and 4.2%) but still remain considerably better than the league average. However, he’s also giving up home runs at the highest rate of his career. Scherzer has yielded an average of 1.97 round-trippers per nine innings pitched and seen a whopping 16.8% of his fly-balls leave the yard. The latter of those two numbers seems bound for some regression, but Scherzer is giving up hard contact at his highest levels since Statcast began tracking batted-ball data (89.1 mph average exit velocity, 10.3% barrel rate, 38.7% hard-hit rate).

Scherzer is in the second season of a three-year, $130MM contract pays him $43.333MM annually, but he has the right to opt out of the final year of that deal this winter. Barring a return to vintage form over the final couple months, he’s unlikely to match that type of payday on the open market. However, Scherzer suggested prior to the season that the opt-out was negotiated into his contract in large part to see where the organization stood at that point. He knew his now-former teammate Jacob deGrom had a looming opt-out in his deal and wanted to ensure that the Mets would remain committed to fielding a winning club in the event deGrom departed. The Mets certainly strived to do so in 2023, but things haven’t worked out.

Reports have since suggested that Scherzer is willing to waive his no-trade clause, which is only sensible if winning is his his top priority. His willingness to do so hardly guarantees that a deal will come to fruition, but with the Mets beginning to trade short-term veterans, both Scherzer and Verlander figure to be oft-discussed names over the next four days.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Angels Are All In, Lucas Giolito and Picking a Lane

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you see the Marlins being sellers or buyers? (23:25)
  • Who are the Phillies targeting and who would they give up prior to the deadline? (26:35)
  • Who do the Tigers end up trading? And what can we expect in return? (28:50)

Check out our past episodes!

Eduardo Rodriguez Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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With the trade deadline now just a few days away, Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez is drawing plenty of trade interest. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that scouts from several rival clubs having been keeping an eye on him, with the Rangers, Rays, Reds, Phillies and Diamondbacks among those keeping tabs.

It’s unsurprising that Rodriguez, 30, is garnering attention around the league. He’s been a solid major league starter for many years and is having arguably his best season to date. Coming into this year, he had thrown 947 2/3 innings with a 4.15 earned run average, striking out 23.9% of batters faced while walking 8.1% of them and keeping the ball on the ground at a 41.2% clip. Here in 2023, he has a 2.95 ERA, nudging his strikeout rate to 25.9% and lowering his walk rate to 6%, that latter number being a career best by a full point.

Those numbers would fit great in just about every rotation around the league. What makes his situation unique is his contract. He’s not a rental in a strict sense but will be treated similarly to one. The Tigers signed him to a five-year, $77MM deal going into 2022, but that deal gave him the ability to opt out after the second year. That opt-out opportunity is now just a few months away, when he will have to decide between hanging onto the three years and $49MM left on his contract versus returning to the open market.

The last time he was a free agent, he was coming off a season in which he had a 4.74 ERA and had rejected a qualifying offer. This time, it seems like he will have the ability to return to free agency with a stronger platform year and no QO attached, since players aren’t allowed to receive more than one in their careers. He will be two years older and the underlying numbers of his 2021 season were still strong, but all the factors taken into consideration would seem to point to him having a strong shot of getting past that $49MM guarantee in free agency. The most recent offseason saw mid-rotation pitchers like Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon get between $63MM and $72MM, with Rodriguez having an argument for being in that range as well.

With that being the case, it makes sense for the Tigers to consider moving him for talent that can help them in future seasons. Their record is currently 46-55, which only puts them 6.5 games off the lead in the weak AL Central, but FanGraphs only gives them a 1.7% chance of making the playoffs with Baseball Prospectus at 0.3%.

The tricky thing is that, unlike other rental players, there’s more downside for the acquiring club. Although Rodriguez is trending towards opting out, there’s a chance he could experience a downturn in results or suffer an injury that causes him to take the bird in the hand. That’s something that other clubs would have to take into consideration when discussing deals, and it’s possible the Tigers get a lesser return than if Rodriguez were simply in the final year of his contract. The injury question mark is always a factor with pitchers and certainly with Rodriguez, who has only once topped 160 innings in a season.

Complications aside, each of the listed clubs would surely love to have Rodriguez in their rotation for the stretch run. The Rangers have lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries, which has put a couple of dents in their depth. Dane Dunning has stepped up and has an ERA of 3.18 this year, but a 15.4% strikeout rate that casts some doubt on its sustainability. Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney are each having lackluster seasons as well, with their respective ERAs hovering just under 5.00. They are still leading the AL West but the Astros are only two games back, with the Angels also aggressively making a push. They’ve already been connected to starters, with reported interest in Lance Lynn of the White Sox.

The Rays have some strong elements to their rotation with Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Zach Eflin in four spots, but Eflin has dealt with persistent knee issues in his career and underwent an MRI on his left knee yesterday. It’s unclear if that will be a serious problem, but they are already without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the rest of the season, with Josh Fleming on the 60-day IL as well. Like the Rangers, they’ve also been connected to Lynn in their pursuit of more starting pitching. They have slipped behind Baltimore in the East but still hold the top Wild Card spot in the American League.

The Reds have known for some time to be in the market for pitching, which makes plenty of sense. They were hoping to have their rotation fronted by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo but both have been on the IL for a while now with at least a few more weeks until their expected returns. Other starters like Justin Dunn and Connor Overton are on the IL with them. Luke Weaver is still clinging to a rotation spot despite his 7.20 ERA on the year, leaving plenty of room for an upgrade. They are currently holding a Wild Card spot and are just a game and a half behind the Brewers in the Central division.

The Phillies have a solid group of five in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, but their depth has been weakened by the Tommy John surgery of Andrew Painter and the struggles of Bailey Falter. The only member of their current rotation than can be optioned is Sanchez, who has a 2.98 ERA but a 4.06 FIP. But perhaps someone could wind up in the bullpen or they simply use a six-man rotation for a while. They currently hold one of the Wild Card spots in the tight NL race.

The Diamondbacks have a top-heavy rotation with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the front. Brandon Pfaadt was one of the top pitching prospects in the league coming into the year but has an 8.81 ERA through his first seven starts. Tommy Henry has a 4.01 ERA but with uninspiring peripherals and a 5.14 FIP. Ryne Nelson’s ERA is is 4.97. General manager Mike Hazen has already admitted the club will pursue pitching upgrades. It remains to be seen how aggressive they will be since they’ve been struggling lately, but they are still just half a game out of the playoff picture.

Reds Notes: India, White Sox, Newman, Casali

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The White Sox have interest in Reds second baseman Jonathan India, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.  This item has some connection to a pair of other recent reports, one from last week about the Reds’ interest in Chicago’s pitchers, and an item from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand earlier today indicating that the Reds were at least open to consider moving India in a deal for controllable pitching.

However, Wittenmyer pushed back on Feinsand’s report, hearing that the Reds’ willingness to move India was “vastly overstated…and led to conversations assuring one of the most respected players in the clubhouse of the slim-to-none chance he’ll be traded.”  Listening to offers out of due diligence doesn’t translate that the Reds are particularly eager to move India, with Wittenmyer indicating that Cincinnati’s talks about India fall “into the category of there’s no such thing as an untouchable player,” rather than the front office actually shopping the second baseman.

An India trade might make sense on paper, given Cincinnati’s glut of young infield talent and the team’s strong need for rotation help for an unexpected playoff push.  That said, moving India might not be sensible from a chemistry standpoint, as Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, and Reds manager David Bell all spoke glowingly about India’s importance within the group.

“I don’t think you can really put into words what [India] means to this team,” Steer said. “He’s the guy who addresses the team after wins….He’s been through kind of every phase of what an organization goes through when they’re trying to win. He continues to be a great leader on and off the field, vocally, leading by example through his actions every single day.”

Wittenmyer cited the Brewers’ now-infamous trade of Josh Hader as an example of how a midseason deal that is sensible from a big-picture standpoint can be disastrous to the morale of a team trying to win now, as the Brewers were vocally demoralized in the wake of Hader’s move to the Padres last summer.  Obviously the Hader trade has become something of a cautionary tale for front offices, giving Reds GM Nick Krall even more to ponder he looks for ways to bolster his surprise contender.

Of course, the Reds players could warm up to a trade quickly if a major player came back to Cincinnati in return — for instance, Dylan Cease.  While Cease is one of four players the White Sox consider next to untouchable in trade talks, India (who is controlled through 2026) might be the kind of building block that might get the Sox considering moving the AL Cy Young Award runner-up.  Likewise, in what might be the middle ground between Wittenmyer and Feinsand’s reports, landing a frontline hurler like Cease would be the only scenario that might get Krall and company to part ways with India.

Lucas Giolito is Chicago’s top trade asset heading into the deadline, yet the Reds aren’t at all likely to move India for a pitcher who will be a free agent after the season.  Michael Kopech (who, like Cease, is controlled through 2025) could be an interesting target for the Reds, though Cincinnati might be wary of Kopech’s injury history.

Speaking of the Reds’ infield, Kevin Newman returned from the 10-day injured list today after a minimum 10-day absence due to gastritis.  The veteran has hit .260/.318/.375 over 225 plate appearances this season, getting a good chunk of time at third base, second base, and shortstop.  That said, Newman’s playing time has been reduced since the arrival of McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and now Christian Encarnacion-Strand in Cincinnati’s infield, and with the youngsters taking over, Newman looks like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline.

Newman’s activation was one of a few transactions made by the Reds today, as righty Levi Stoudt was optioned to Triple-A and Daniel Duarte was called up to bring a fresh arm into the pitching ranks.  More notably, catcher Curt Casali was placed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 21) due to a left foot contusion.

With Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile already on the active roster, the Reds aren’t short in the catching department.  Casali and Stephenson began the year in something of a timeshare behind the plate, as the Reds were trying to keep Stephenson healthy after his injury-shortened 2022 by using him regularly at DH and first base.  However, with Joey Votto’s return from the IL and the DH position being used to give at-bats to many young hitters, Stephenson has more increasingly taken on a regular catching workload, leaving Casali as an odd man out.

Reds Reportedly Willing To Trade Jonathan India

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The Reds have told other teams that they are willing to trade second baseman Jonathan India, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, in order to obtain young, controllable starting pitching. This marks a shift from a couple of months ago, when the club was reported to be disinclined to trading him.

The change in attitude is surprising, as India was awarded Rookie of the Year honors in the National League less than two years ago, taking that trophy in 2021. But there are also some reasons why it’s a logical pivot for the club. For one thing, the club has vaulted itself into contention this year, ahead of the expectations of just about everyone. They were 26-29 at the time of that report from June 1 that said they were disinclined to move India, but they are now up to 55-46 and just half a game behind the Brewers in the National League Central.

That ascent has been fueled by a parade of infield prospects coming up to the majors and succeeding this year. Spencer Steer made his debut last year and cracked this year’s Opening Day roster. He’s seized an everyday role by hitting .277/.363/.461 for a wRC+ of 118, a breakout that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently looked at in more detail. Elly De La Cruz has cooled off a bit after a scorching hot start but is still a menace on the basepaths. Matt McLain is hitting .305/.371/.528 for a wRC+ of 137 while providing above-average middle infield defense.Christian Encarnacion-Strand was recently promoted after demolishing Triple-A pitching and has held his own in the majors through seven games. In addition to those youngers, veteran Joey Votto has also provided a jolt since returning from the injured list not too long ago.

The combination of those performances is a huge reason why the club is faring so well this year, but also has the side effect of crowding out their position player mix. Steer was playing third earlier in the season but moved to first a bit more when De La Cruz came up. With Votto off the injured list and Encarnacion-Strand in the mix at first as well, Steer has also seen some time in left field, joining an outfield mix that includes TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson and Nick Senzel.

As all of that has been going on, India has cooled off from a hot start. He was hitting .282/.369/.426 through the end of May for a wRC+ of 112, which is when it was reported that the Reds weren’t planning to move him. It seemed like India was bouncing back from an injury-marred 2022 season where he hit .249/.327/.378 for a 95 wRC+, getting closer to his Rookie of the Year form from 2021 where he hit .269/.376/.459 and earned a wRC+ of 120.

But since the calendar flipped to June, he’s posted a diminished line of .214/.299/.393, which translated to an 83 wRC+. That’s brought his season-long line down to .251/.338/.411 and his wRC+ to 99, just a hair below league average for the season as a whole.

Teams generally shouldn’t wildly change their player evaluations based on a couple of months, and some bad luck has probably been impacting India’s results anyhow. He has a .228 batting average on balls in play since the start of June, well below the .329 mark he had at the end of May. But he might still end up the odd man out in Cincinnati given the success of all the aforementioned players. If India were subtracted from the picture, the club could still have an infield of Steer, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand/Votto from left to right. Senzel and Kevin Newman can serve as the depth pieces, though the latter is currently on the injured list due to gastritis.

India has only played second base in his major league career, generally getting subpar grades at that spot, and brings a bit less versatility than most of the club’s other infield options. But he would still figure to have plenty of trade value based on his track record. His struggles last year coincided with multiple trips to the injured list due to hamstring issues and he seemed to be back on track here in 2023 before his recent dip. He’s also still young and cheap, having exactly two years of major league service time coming into the current campaign. That means he’ll finish this year at the three-year mark and qualify for arbitration for the first time, with free agency not slated until after 2026.

This year’s trade deadline seems like it will be unique, with so many clubs hovering near contention due to the expanded postseason and some weak divisions. That’s led to widespread speculation that there will be more so-called “baseball trades” wherein two contending clubs each trade win-now pieces, subtracting from an area of surplus in order to address an area of need. Perhaps a different season would have seen more trade rumors surrounding a prospect like Noelvi Marte, who is playing well in Triple-A, but the Reds’ theoretical trading partner might prefer an established big leaguer like India.

But the Reds quite clearly need pitching and might have to give up something to get it. Their rotation was supposed to be fronted by Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene but each has been on the injured list for over a month, with returns not likely until August. Other starters like Justin Dunn, Connor Overton and Vladimir Gutierrez are also on the IL, leaving the club with a rotation of Andrew Abbott, Ben Lively, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. Each of the latter three have an ERA of 4.60 or higher, with Weaver’s all the way up at 7.20 this year. Lively has a 3.88 ERA but hasn’t had a regular role in the majors in years and just recently came off an IL stint due to a pectoral strain. Abbott has been great this year but his career consists of just nine total starts.

There’s plenty of question marks in there so the Reds will be looking to add pitching, with general manager Nick Krall having admitted long ago that arms will be a target for them this summer. The fact that they are willing to consider India in such talks is notable but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s a lock to be moved. They will first have to line up on a deal with a club that needs a second baseman and also has controllable pitching to move.

The Dodgers would be one speculative fit since they have dealt with various challenges in the middle infield. Gavin Lux required knee surgery during the spring and isn’t expected back at all this year. Chris Taylor also missed significant time while Miguel Rojas has hardly hit, which forced the club to move Mookie Betts in from his customary right field position to play both middle infield spots. They have plenty of the young and controllable starters that the Reds seek but are currently using it themselves. With starters like Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard on the IL, they have rookies Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove currently in their rotation.

It would be a similar story in trying to line up with other clubs. Most contenders are looking to add pitching at this time of year, not subtract it. Young and controllable pitching is generally the toughest to pry loose. The Yankees traded Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader last year, but that was when the lefty had just a year and a half of club control remaining. Even if there is a club willing to deal a controllable pitcher, they would also need to have a bit of a hole at second and believe in India getting past his recent slump. Time will tell whether anything comes together but it’s an interesting turnaround for the Reds given where things were just a few months ago, when the club seemed to be rebuilding and India felt like a core piece.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/17/23

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The Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, A’s and Orioles all agreed to $4MM+ bonuses with their first round draftees this afternoon. We’ll round up the other $2MM+ signings from Monday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):

  • The Giants are signing 16th overall pick Bryce Eldridge to a $3.9975MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter links). That’s a bit below the selection’s $4.33MM slot value. Eldridge, a two-way player from a Virginia high school, ranked between 16th and 23rd on the referenced pre-draft lists. Listed at 6’7″, he’s generally regarded as a more talented power-hitting first base/corner outfield prospect than as a pitcher, though evaluators suggest he could’ve been a top-two round selection were he solely on the mound. He’s expected to try playing both ways to begin his professional career. The lefty hitter/righty thrower had been committed to Alabama. San Francisco also signed 52nd pick Walker Martin for an overslot $2.9975MM bonus. An Arkansas commit, Martin is a power-hitting infielder from a Colorado high school.
  • The Yankees announced they’ve signed first rounder George Lombard Jr. According to Callis, the Florida high schooler receives a $3.3MM bonus that beats the $3.07MM slot value of the 26th selection (Twitter link). A right-handed hitting infielder and son of the former major leaguer who currently serves as Tigers’ bench coach, Lombard Jr. had been committed to Vanderbilt. Listed at 6’3″, he’s viewed as a well-rounded and instinctual player who could hit for average and power. Evaluators generally had him as a back of the first-round prospect with some question about whether he’ll outgrow shortstop.
  • The Mariners are in agreement with 29th pick Johnny Farmelo on a $3.2MM bonus, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com (Twitter link). That’s the selection Seattle received under the Prospect Promotion Incentive after Julio Rodríguez won the 2022 Rookie of the Year. Farmelo, a left-handed hitting outfielder out of a Virginia high school, tops the $2.8MM slot value of the selection. Generally regarded as a comp round or early second round talent, he’s a plus runner who could play center field and has some power projection in a 6’2″ frame. Farmelo was a Virginia commit.
  • The Brewers are signing 18th pick Brock Wilken for $3.15MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s quite a bit below the $4.02MM slot value for the college infielder. Wilken, a Wake Forest product, is one of the better offensive prospects in the college class. Evaluators suggest he’s a power over contact player but could be a middle-of-the-order presence. They’re divided on whether the 6’4″ infielder will be athletic enough to stick at the hot corner or should move to first base down the line. The right-handed hitter put up a monster .345/.506/.807 showing during his draft year in Winston-Salem. Milwaukee also signed 33rd pick Josh Knoth for $2MM, per Callis (on Twitter). A high school righty from New York, Knoth is credited with mid-90s velocity and two impressive breaking pitches.
  • The Blue Jays agreed to a $3MM bonus with first round pick Arjun Nimmala, according to Callis (Twitter link). That’s below the $3.75MM slot value of the 20th selection. Nimmala, a high school infielder out of Florida, placed in the top 17 on each of the aforementioned rankings. The 6’1″ infielder is credited with plus power projection and a good chance to stick at shortstop. An aggressive approach and elevated swing-and-miss are the primary questions in his profile, though he’s one of the youngest players in the class and regarded as a strong upside play. Nimmala had been committed to Florida State.
  • The A’s went well above slot for third-rounder Steven Echavarria, Callis reports (Twitter links). He lands $3MM, almost $2MM north of the slot value for the 73rd pick. A high school right-hander from New Jersey, he’d been committed to Florida. He has a mid-90s fastball and potential plus curveball. Oakland also signed 39th selection Myles Naylor for the $2.025MM slot value. The Canadian infielder (younger brother of the Guardians’ Naylor brothers) is a bat-first third baseman who’d been slated to attend Texas Tech.
  • The Nationals handed out a pair of $2.6MM bonuses, per reports from Callis and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter links). Miami infielder Yohandy Morales went 40th overall after hitting .408/.475/.713 during his final season in the ACC. He’s a power-hitting third baseman. High school righty Travis Sykora gets a well above slot bonus as a third round draftee. A Texas commit, Sykora is a 6’6″ hurler who can get into the triple digits and was regarded as a possible top 40 talent in the class.
  • Infielder Sammy Stafura signed for $2.4975MM with the Reds, reports Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (on Twitter). That’s above slot for the New York high school infielder, a Clemson commit. Stafura was viewed as a potential first-round talent based on his athleticism and bat speed.

Reds Promote Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Place Kevin Newman On IL

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July 17: Cincinnati has formally announced the move; Encarnacion-Strand’s contract has been selected from Louisville, which fills the team’s 40-man roster. In a corresponding 26-man roster move, infielder Kevin Newman was placed on the 10-day injured list due to gastritis.

July 16: The Reds are calling up another of their top prospects, as FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter) reports that Christian Encarnacion-Strand is on his way to the majors.  The club may have to make multiple corresponding moves before Monday’s game, as Encarnacion-Strand isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.

A fourth-round pick for the Twins in the 2021 draft, “CES” has done nothing but mash since beginning his pro career, as he has a whopping .322/.386/.604 slash line and 56 homers over 946 career plate appearances in the minors.  This includes hitting .331/.405/.637 with 20 home runs over 316 PA at Triple-A Louisville this year, leaving no doubt that the 23-year-old is ready for a bigger challenge.

It seems quite likely that the Reds would’ve called Encarnacion-Strand up earlier if it wasn’t for the fact that the team is already overloaded with quality prospects.  The additions of star rookies Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have helped spark the Reds back into contention for the NL Central, while Spencer Steer (who made his MLB debut in 2022) has also been a huge contributor.

With the likes of Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and TJ Friedl also producing, the Reds find themselves with an interesting decision to make with Encarnacion-Strand’s position.  CES has played almost all of his career as a corner infielder, with only a pair of games in the corner outfield spots.  But, De La Cruz has been mostly playing third base since his promotion, and longtime star Joey Votto is still in the regular first base/DH mix since his return from the 60-day injured list.  It’s say to predict Encarnacion-Strand as the eventual successor to Votto, but the veteran has been on fire at the plate.

It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” for manager David Bell and Cincinnati’s front office, and it could be the issue may solve itself in the form of an injury or a slump.  Or, the Reds might simply rotate everyone through the lineup and make copious use of pinch-hitting opportunities or late-game substitutions in order to keep everyone (Votto in particular) fresh.  With the deadline approaching, it also isn’t out of the question that the Reds could create space by trading one of their young prospects in a headline deal for a controllable, frontline starting pitcher.  At the very least, it seems like Cincinnati will look to move veterans like Kevin Newman or Nick Senzel, whose playing time has been drastically reduced by the youth movement.

Encarnacion-Strand has made such a rapid rise up the minor league ladder that none of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, or The Athletic’s Keith Law had the infielder on their preseason top-100 lists.  He currently checks in 83rd on BA’s ranking and 88th on Pipeline’s ranking, with both outlets praising his natural power and his arm strength.  Questions about CES’ contact hitting seem to have been addressed in his Triple-A season, as his 10.4% walk rate is easily the highest of his three pro seasons, and he has also reduced his strikeout rate to 21.8%.  A slightly more patient version of Encarnacion-Strand is a scary concept for pitchers, given his power and ability to hit to the opposite field.

Cincinnati brought Encarnacion-Strand and Steer into the organization less than a year ago, acquired along with southpaw prospect Steve Hajjar in the trade that sent Tyler Mahle to the Twins at the deadline.  Since the Reds flipped Hajjar to the Guardians as the player to be named later to acquire Benson during the offseason, the Mahle trade has very quickly become one of the most productive swaps in recent team history.  For Minnesota, the trade is already infamous, as Mahle battled injuries and made only nine starts for the Twins before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/16/23

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Here are the latest signings from near the top of the amateur draft board.  For more on these and other prospects, check out the pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • The White Sox announced deals with 17 of their 20 draft picks, including first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez.  The Sox specified that Gonzalez signed for a $3.9MM bonus, less than the $4,488,600 slot price attached to the 15th overall pick.  The pundits had a pretty wide range of opinion on Gonzalez, with McDaniel ranking him sixth in the draft class and Fangraphs placing the Ole Miss shortstop 37th.  Gonzalez has an unusual swing that had led to some disagreement on his ceiling as a hitter, though he is considered at least average in every tool except his below-average speed.
  • The Reds signed eight more of their picks, led by second-round pick Ty Floyd.  Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link) reports that Floyd received a $2,097,500 bonus, which is below the $2,255,100 slot price for the 38th overall selection.  McDaniel had Floyd ranked highest at 42nd on his list, calling the LSU right-hander “a strong athlete with an above-average slider” and “easy plus velo” on a fastball that can hit 98mph and usually sits in the 94-95mph range.  The big fastball alone projects Floyd as at least an intriguing bullpen arm for the future, and his slider and changeup at least offer promise as plus pitches.
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