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Reds To Sign Kyle Zimmer

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Right-hander Kyle Zimmer is in the Reds’ locker room, according to Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer. Presumably, he and the team have a minor league pact, based on the fact that Zimmer cleared waivers just before the lockout.

The righty was taken by the Royals with the fifth overall selection in the 2012 draft and was considered one of the better prospects in baseball in the years after that. Baseball America placed Zimmer on their Top 100 list four consecutive years from 2013 to 2016. Unfortunately, arm injuries have prevented Zimmer from reaching those lofty expectations thus far in his career.

In the shortened 2020 season, it seemed like maybe he was getting things back on track, throwing 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA. His 11% walk rate was high, but he did rack up strikeouts at an excellent 28.6% rate. He also seemed to be carrying that forward into 2021, with his ERA sitting under 3.00 into July. Unfortunately, he couldn’t finish strong and ended the year with a 4.83 ERA over 54 innings, with a meager 20.6% strikeout rate and 13.5% walk rate. He was released by the Royals in November.

For the Reds, they’ve been mostly focused on cost-cutting measures this offseason, with Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Amir Garrett being notable subtractions from the pitching staff in the past few months. The 30-year-old Zimmer is a low-cost way of getting a former top prospect into the system. He has over two years of MLB service time and an option year remaining. If he’s able to show any of the previous form that made him successful in 2020, he could give Cincy a depth arm that could be shuffled between Triple-A and the majors, as well as being kept around via arbitration beyond this year.

Reds To Sign Sam McWilliams To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have agreed to terms on a minor league deal with righty Sam McWilliams, per Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic.

Originally drafted by the Phillies, McWilliams was part of a couple of trades as a prospect, going to the Diamondbacks for Jeremy Hellickson before later being flipped to the Rays as part of the Steven Souza Jr. trade.

In 2019, he got his first taste of Triple-A, struggling mightily at that level, putting up an ERA of 8.18 in 44 innings there. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, McWilliams reached free agency and signed a Major League deal with the Mets. Yet again, McWilliams struggled, throwing 8 1/3 innings in Triple-A and getting shelled to the tune of a 10.80 ERA. He was designated for assignment and claimed by the Padres, struggling some more before being DFA’d again and clearing waivers.

Ghiroli recently wrote about McWilliams, providing insight into how all this came to be and why teams continue to be interested in the hurler. While the full story is worth a read for all the details, the short version is that McWilliams became a disciple of advanced analytics, greatly improving the speed, spin and shape of his pitches. However, he became overwhelmed in a sea of data and lost the ability to locate his pitches, developing a condition that is commonly known as “the yips.” The data certainly backs that up, as he had a 20.2% walk rate in the minors last year. (Average is usually in the vicinity of 8%.)

McWilliams is now changing his approach and hoping to make the journey back from his struggles, much like Tyler Matzek of the Braves. The yips kept Matzek out of baseball for years, but he made a remarkable comeback that led all the way to a World Series title last year. The Reds are hoping that McWilliams can similarly overcome these obstacles and find the best version of himself. The club has been primarily focused on cost-cutting recently, which involved subtracting Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Amir Garrett from the pitching staff. Taking a flier on a pitcher like McWilliams is a no-risk way of trying to recoup some of those losses without a significant financial investment. McWilliams is only 26 years old and has yet to make his MLB debut. He also has a couple of option years remaining, meaning he could be a valuable depth option for the club if he can crack the roster.

Reds To Sign Colin Moran

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3:29pm: The Reds have now announced the signing of Moran to a one-year, Major League contract. He’s guaranteed $1MM on the deal, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.

2:10pm: The Reds appear to have agreed to a deal with corner infielder Colin Moran, as C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic tweets that there’s a locker setup for the now-former Pirates infielder in the Reds’ clubhouse.

Moran, 29, was selected by the Marlins with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2013 draft but never played in the big leagues with Miami. Traded to the Astros alongside Jake Marisnick and Competitive Balance draft pick in exchange for Enrique Hernandez and righty Jarred Cosart, Moran got only a pair of brief looks in Houston before being traded to Pittsburgh along with Joe Musgrove as part of the deal that sent Gerrit Cole to the ’Stros.

After a pair of early trades, Moran finally got a long-term look with the Bucs, where he’s spent the past four seasons as a fixture in the lineup. After struggling defensively as Pirates’ primary third baseman from  2018-19, he moved across the diamond to begin logging more reps at first base. Moran’s glove has been better there, but defensive metrics are still fairly bearish on his glove overall.

Through 444 games and 1527 plate appearances with the Pirates, Moran posted a .269/.331/.419 batting line with 44 home runs, 71 doubles and a pair of triples. Moran walked in 8.1% of his plate appearances as a Pirate against a 22.1% strikeout rate. By measure of wRC+ and OPS+, Moran was a league-average hitter in his four years with the Pirates, who non-tendered him this past November rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the $4MM range.

While Moran’s glove isn’t going to win any awards and he struggles quite a bit against lefties, he’s a .280/.341/.440 hitter in his career versus right-handed pitching. Cincinnati has lefties Mike Moustakas and Joey Votto at the infield corners, so Moran seems likelier to get in some DH work against right-handed pitching at perhaps serve as the occasional pinch-hitter. At times in the past, Moran has looked as though he might have another gear at the plate; his average exit velocity in 2020 was a hearty 91.9 mph, and he posted excellent barrel and hard-hit rates, per Statcast (13.4% and 43.7%, respectively). Those numbers trended back down toward his career norms in 2021, however.

If the move to a fourth organization — and, more notably, to a much more homer-friendly ballpark — helps Moran take his offensive production to a new level, he could help Cincinnati beyond the 2022 season. With four-plus years of Major League service time, Moran is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

The addition of Moran comes just a day after Cincinnati inked former Giants second baseman Donovan Solano to a one-year deal. The Reds have stripped down what was a competitive roster in 2021 by waiving Wade Miley and trading Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart and Eugenio Suarez. While the Reds picked up a few prospects, the moves were made not in an effort to rebuild the farm so much as to simply cut payroll. GM Nick Krall opened the offseason by saying the team needed to “align payroll to our resources,” and rather than pursue the maximum possible return on Winker after an All-Star season, he was included in a package deal that was focused on shedding the remaining $35MM on Suarez’s contract.

Krall said yesterday that he’s now focused on adding to the roster, but it appears the Reds will mostly upgrade around the margins after subtracting several key players. Bringing Moran into the mix gives the team a recognizable name, particularly within the NL Central, and adds a competent platoon bat to the bench, but the current Reds roster looks quite a bit weaker than the one that finished the 2021 season at 83-79 and spent much of the season in the Wild Card hunt.

Reds Sign Donovan Solano, Buck Farmer

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5:13pm: Cincinnati has officially announced both deals. As expected, Farmer is in camp on a minor league contract as a non-roster invitee.

2:45pm: The Reds have signed infielder Donovan Solano to a contract worth $4.5MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It was previously reported by various reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, that Solano had a locker in the Reds’ spring clubhouse, along with right-hander Buck Farmer.

Solano, 34, spent many years as a classic journeyman, bouncing from the Cardinals to the Marlins, Yankees and Dodgers, playing 370 MLB games from 2012 to 2018. Prior to the 2019 season, he signed a minor league deal with the Giants and has quietly had an excellent showing for San Fran over the past three campaigns. In that time, he’s gotten 775 plate appearances and hit .308/.354/.435, for a wRC+ of 114. He mostly slotted in at second base but also saw some time at third base and shortstop for the Giants.

The Reds don’t really need help at the keystone as they have Jonathan India, last year’s National League Rookie of the Year, slotted in there. Third base is a bit more open, however, in the wake of this week’s trade of Eugenio Suarez. The club could use Mike Moustakas as their everyday third baseman but he dealt with multiple injuries last year and only got into 62 games. Now that National League teams are able to use the designated hitter, Moustakas could be a good candidate for slotting into the DH role. There’s also the possibility of a platoon, as Moustakas hits from the left and Solano from the right. Solano’s career spits aren’t drastic, but he did put up a wRC+ of 121 against lefties last year, compared to just 96 against righties.

As for Farmer, the 31-year-old has spent his entire big league career up until now with the Tigers, who drafted him in 2013. Over the past seven seasons, he has appeared in 241 games, mostly as a reliever, throwing 320 2/3 innings with a 5.33 ERA, 20.3% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate.

The club released him in August, at which point Farmer signed a minor league deal with the Rangers but never cracked their big league roster. Presumably, his deal with the Reds is a minor league deal as well.

GM: Reds Do Not Expect To Trade Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle

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Although the Reds’ offseason has consisted primarily of cutting payroll, general manager Nick Krall suggested to reporters this afternoon that his focus will now shift to adding to the roster rather than subtracting (Twitter link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). Specifically regarding sought-after right-handers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, Krall stated: “I don’t see us moving any of those two players.”

Cincinnati’s offseason kicked off with Krall ominously stating that the organization needed to “align our payroll to our resources.” Those comments came in conjunction with the decision to waive Wade Miley and his $10MM salary following a strong season and to trade former Gold Glove-winning catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers.

Following the lockout, the Reds traded veteran right-hander Sonny Gray to the Twins and attached third baseman Eugenio Suarez (still owed $35MM) to All-Star left fielder Jesse Winker in order to get the Mariners to take on the remaining salary. Cincinnati acquired prospects in both those post-lockout deals — pitchers Brandon Williamson and Chase Petty most notably — but the broader takeaway was that those trades trimmed nearly $50MM in payroll off the books.

There has indeed been something of a shift in philosophy today, as the Reds took on more than $7MM in salary when they flipped Amir Garrett to the Royals in exchange for veteran starter Mike Minor. They’ve also agreed to a $4.5MM deal with veteran infielder Donovan Solano. The moves certainly don’t make up for the losses of Miley, Gray and Winker, at least in terms of competitive expectations, but they do at least push back against the teardown narrative that had formed.

While some will wonder whether this is mere posturing, it’s rare for an executive to make public comments of this nature only to later walk them back. It’s possible that a team could simply overwhelm the Reds and force them to part with either Castillo or Mahle, both of whom are controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season, but it now seems likelier that they’ll open the year in the rotation alongside the newly acquired Minor.

If Castillo and Mahle are indeed off that market, that’s music to the ears of the Athletics, who surely won’t be making any such public declarations regarding lefty Sean Manaea and right-hander Frankie Montas. The A’s have already traded Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Chris Bassitt as they look to trim payroll and stock back up on young talent, and it stands to reason that with heavy interest in both Manaea and Montas, further trades will follow suit. Subtracting Castillo and Mahle from the market only reduces the supply of available starters on the market and enhances Oakland’s bargaining power.

Royals, Reds Swap Mike Minor For Amir Garrett

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The Royals have traded left-handed starter Mike Minor and cash to the Reds in exchange for left-handed reliever Amir Garrett, per announcements from both teams.

Minor, 34, is headed into the second season of a two-year, $18MM contract originally signed with Kansas City. He’s due $10MM this season, plus a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for the 2023 season. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Royals are covering that $1MM buyout. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that Kansas City is also covering $500K of Minor’s salary. That leaves the Reds on the hook for about $7.3MM in additional salary commitments, when factoring in the projected $2.2MM (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) that would’ve gone to the arbitration-eligible Garrett.

It’s frankly bizarre to see Cincinnati take on cash to acquire a struggling veteran starter, considering they commenced their offseason by placing a highly productive veteran starter, Wade Miley, on outright waivers — content to just give him away in order to save the same $10MM salary that is owed to Minor. The move to add Minor, who has an ERA north of 5.00 in each of his past two seasons, is a clear downgrade over simply keeping Miley. One can also imagine that if the goal was to add a veteran to the staff after trading Sonny Gray, there were options in free agency at a similar or even lesser price point.

Minor has been a durable source of innings over the past four years, starting at least 28 games in each full season and another 11 during the shortened 2020 campaign. However, he posted a 5.05 ERA in Kansas City through last year’s 158 1/3 innings, punching out 22.3% of his opponents against a strong 6.1% walk rate. Metrics like FIP (4.29) and SIERA (4.20) feel Minor’s strikeout and walk rates ought to have yielded a better ERA, but it’s quite a bet for him to bounce back when factoring in how the change of scenery could adversely impact Minor. As a fly-ball pitcher whose biggest Achilles heel during that time has been a susceptibility to home runs (1.43 HR/9 since 2018), the move to Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park seems like a poor fit (particularly at a time when the National League is adding the designated hitter).

Perhaps the Reds plan to explore additional trade scenarios surrounding Minor. Perhaps they believe pitching coach Derek Johnson, who coached Minor at Vanderbilt more than a decade ago, can help Minor return to form. Whatever the motivation behind the trade, it’s strange to see Cincinnati going out of its way to add salary after so aggressively finding ways to cut payroll over the past 18 months. In a vacuum, the trade for Minor is a sensible enough bet on a rebound for a prominent veteran — but in the context of the Reds’ recent string of transactions, it’s just rather puzzling.

As for the Royals, they’ll add a hard-throwing lefty with big bat-missing ability who has never quite put things together for a prolonged run of success. The 29-year-old Garrett averages 95 mph on his heater and has fanned just under 30% of his opponents dating back to 2018, but he’s also susceptible to walks (12.1%) and home runs (1.36 HR/9). Home runs have been a particular issue for Garrett over the past two seasons, although a move out of Cincinnati and into the spacious Kauffman Stadium could help him cut back on those long balls.

Garrett is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, so if the new environs can finally coax some consistency from him, he could be a vital piece of the Royals’ relief corps. Beyond the strikeouts and velocity, Garrett ranks 14th among all qualified relievers with a 15.7% swinging-strike rate since 2019, so the potential for a breakout is there. He’ll join a Kansas City bullpen that is increasingly deep in hard-throwing arms who can miss bats, pairing with righties like Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow as well as southpaw Jake Brentz.

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

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The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Acquire Sonny Gray From Reds

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The Reds and Twins are in agreement on a deal headlined by right-hander Sonny Gray, moving from Cincinnati to Minnesota, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Along with Gray, the Twins will receive minor league right-hander Francis Peguero. In return, the Reds will acquire the 26th overall selection of the 2021 draft, right-hander Chase Petty. Both teams have announced the deal, making it official.

This deal has the potential to shake up both central divisions. The Twins, for their part, look much improved with the addition of Gray, and they might not be done adding starters, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). With Kenta Maeda out after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the rotation was easily the Twins’ biggest area of need moving forward.

Although the Twins bottomed out last year, which led to the sell-off of a number of high-profile names, much of the talent that took them to the playoffs in 2019 and 2020 remains. Gray represents a pseudo replacement for the biggest departure, Jose Berrios, who was traded to the Blue Jays in July. Though Berrios was a homegrown star – and he’s four and a half years younger than Gray – in the short term, the 32-year-old Gray is certainly capable of holding the line in what was once Berrios’ rotation spot.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey praised Gray for a makeup that’s “off the charts,” mentioning his ability to “anchor the rotation” and set an example for younger starters, per this video clip from Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. The player, the personality, and the two years of team control made Gray a natural target for this Twins’ squad.

Berrios is the broader talent of the two, but one could argue that Gray is a better fit for this particular Twins roster because of the versatility his contract affords them. Despite a $1MM bump to his contract because of the trade, tweets Nightengale, Gray’s 2022 salary still clocks in at a mere $10.7MM. Furthermore, the Twins now hold an affordable $13MM club option for 2023. That’s plenty economical for a rotation arm coming off a 3.3 rWAR/2.4 fWAR output over 135 1/3 innings spanning 26 starts.

Given the contract, the Twins can flip Gray again if they crater as they did in 2021, but if the club proves to be more competitive, Gray figures to be one of the reasons why. His strikeout numbers were down a touch from his career norms, down to a still-solid 27.0 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate also improved to 8.7 percent, and there’s little reason to think he can’t continue to be a solid mid-to-front-end arm.

Gray should be helped by moving from the Reds’ uneven defense to a fairly well-equipped defensive unit in Minnesota. If Byron Buxton stays healthy, and Josh Donaldson can avoid an age-related decline at third, the Twins ought to catch their share of baseballs, especially with Isiah Kiner-Falefa taking over at short.

In terms of the wider impact on Minnesota’s roster, the rotation doesn’t have much else in the way of sure things. Randy Dobnak was signed to a low-risk, long-term contract last winter, but the 27-year-old struggled mightily in 2021 and didn’t end up spending much time in the rotation. Dylan Bundy had a similar kind of year for the Angels. The 29-year-old has a longer track record, but no less uncertainty. Joe Ryan, are Bailey Ober are likeliest to fill out the middle of the rotation, with Lewis Thorpe and Griffin Jax also competing for an opportunity. That’s not a unit to set your hair on fire, but it’s getting closer.

The Twins, of course, not only get the most established arm in the deal, but they’re also getting Peguero, a 24-year-old reliever out of the Dominican Republic who finished last season in High-A. Peguero isn’t close to the prospect that Petty is, but he’s a flyer nonetheless who at least has a chance of becoming a late-inning bullpen arm. Peguero posted a 4.96 ERA over 32 2/3 innings last year, striking out 36 batters in 32 2/3 innings, picking up six saves.

Taking the aerial view, the AL Central continues to get more competitive. The Tigers and Twins have both made strides to challenge the White Sox, who had a relatively clear path to a division title in 2021. Whether this will be enough to get the Twins back to their 2019-20 level remains to be seen.

On the other side, the Reds step further away from their short-lived identity as a free-spending all-out contender for the NL Central crown. The Reds spent aggressively to end their playoff drought prior to the 2020 season, and they succeeded in that measure, making the expanded playoffs as a 31-29 wild card team. They were shut out in their two playoff games, however. They actually improved by winning percentage in 2021, finishing the year with 83 wins, but out of the playoff money.

It’s tough to imagine the 2022 Reds doing even that well after subtracting Gray and Wade Miley from the rotation. Miley, of course, they gave away for nothing, letting division rival Chicago claim him off waivers. Miley may be a 35-year-old coming off a career year, but it still seems relatively short-sighted to let go of a starter who just posted a 5.9 rWAR season without netting even a lottery pick in return.

For Gray, at least, the Reds aren’t walking away empty-handed. Petty is a live-armed righty who can hit triple digits on the radar gun. As the Twins’ top draft pick in the 2021 draft, he comes with plenty of upside, but he’s also just a month out from turning 19. His future, therefore, comes with a wide range of potential outcomes. If nothing else, the Reds accomplished the goal of cutting money from their payroll while adding to the farm system.

Petty was the 7th-ranked prospect in the Twins’ system, per Baseball America, which marks both his fastball and slider as potential 70-grade offerings. He was starting games for the Twins and would continue to do so in 2022, but they saw Petty’s most likely future to be that of a “back-end reliever,” per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (via Twitter). BA, similarly, writes that “Petty’s upside is significant, but his specific player demographic is inherently risky and he’ll need plenty of time to develop.”

The variability built into Petty’s future might make this trade a tough pill to swallow for Reds’ fans. In the short term, it’s fair to wonder if this deal drops the Reds behind even the Cubs in the overall hierarchy of the NL Central. They are firmly behind the Cardinals and Brewers, and still firmly ahead of the Pirates.

The coming weeks will tell a lot about how the Reds view this deal. If they are entering a full-blown rebuild, rumors about the availability of Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle will continue to swirl. If, however, the Reds view this deal as a calculated re-balancing of the books – in the vein of how leadership pitched the Raisel Iglesias trade last winter – the Reds might still have enough talent leftover in the rotation to hang around the NL Central race.

At this point, however, they will be relying on a relatively unproven collection of arms after Castillo and Mahle. It’s hard to see where the rotation can build on last year’s success without Gray and Miley unless Hunter Greene quickly emerges as a frontline arm. Vladimir Gutierrez held his own last year, but he’ll need to take another step forward to be anything more than a back of the rotation arm.

There is time left this offseason for the Reds to shift the narrative, but for the time being, this move will further the perception of the Reds as a cost-conscious also-ran more concerned with lowering payroll than truly competing. Critics will lump this deal in with the Iglesias and Tucker Barnhart trades as evidence of their penny-pinching. The Barnhart deal is defensible because of the presence of Tyler Stephenson, but the Iglesias deal ended up hurting the club more than they anticipated in 2021. If the rotation falls off as many expect it will, the Reds will have a hard time selling this move as an example of roster savvy.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/12/22

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Catching up on some of the minor league signings on a busy day of transactions…

Latest Moves

  • The Reds are releasing Alfredo Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (via Twitter).  Rodriguez was a highly-regarded member of the 2016-17 international signing class, and Cincinnati paid a hefty $7MM bonus to land the Cuban infielder.  However, Rodriguez never produced much in the Reds’ farm system, hitting .260/.310/.321 with eight home runs over 1758 career minor league plate appearances.

Earlier Today

  • The Tigers signed righty Miguel Diaz to a minor league deal, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Diaz will be invited to the club’s MLB Spring Training camp, and he’ll earn $800K if he makes Detroit’s big league roster.  A Rule 5 Draft acquisition out of the Brewers’ farm system in 2016, Diaz posted a 6.62 ERA over 66 2/3 innings with San Diego from 2017-19 before knee surgery put him on the shelf for much of the 2019 campaign.  Returning to the Show in 2021, Diaz had a much more respectable 3.64 ERA over 42 relief innings for the Padres last season, but had trouble limiting home runs and walks.  This led the Padres outright Diaz following the season, and he elected free agency.
  • The Dodgers have signed right-hander Reyes Moronta to a minor league deal and invited him to their big league Spring Training camp, MLB.com’s Juan Toribio reports.  Moronta will lock in a $1.5MM salary if he makes Los Angeles’ active roster, adds ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.  A shoulder surgery sidelined Moronta for the entire 2020 season and he made only four appearances this past year for the Giants before a flexor strain sent to the injured list and then the minors for the bulk of the 2021 campaign.  San Francisco outrighted him off its 40-man roster after the season and Moronta opted to test free agency, and the 29-year-old will now get a chance to revive his career wit the Giants’ chief NL West rival.  Before injuries curtailed his production, Moronta had a very solid 2.66 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate over 128 1/3 relief innings for the Giants in 2016-18, albeit with a 13.6% walk rate.
  • The Marlins signed righty Jimmy Yacabonis to a minor league deal, as per young reporter Hayes Mish (off a tip from his father, Craig Mish of The Miami Herald).  Yacabonis spent 2021 with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma, marking the first season since 2016 that he hadn’t seen any big league action.  Over 104 career MLB innings with the Orioles and Mariners, Yacabonis has a 5.71 ERA.

Krall: Reds "Have Not Been Engaged With" Nick Castellanos' Camp

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The bullpen, a fifth starter, bench help, and backup catching were cited by Reds GM Nick Krall as possible target areas, Krall told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, and the Reds could turn to either Major League or minor league free agents to address any of those needs.  In regards to one particular prominent free agent, Krall seemed to close the door on the chances of Nick Castellanos returning to Cincinnati, saying “we have not been engaged with his representatives.”

It doesn’t count as any big surprise that Castellanos will be moving on, since he was looking for a hefty new contract pre-lockout, and the Reds’ offseason moves have thus far been geared towards cutting and managing payroll (while still making some effort to contend for a playoff spot).  Since Castellanos rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer and because Cincinnati is a revenue-sharing recipient, the team stands to receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2022 draft should Castellanos sign elsewhere for more than $50MM.

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