- The Reds announced a series of coaching changes Monday. Former Astros farmhand Rolando Valles has been promoted from major league associate coach to major league assistant coach. Kyle Arnsberg, the game-planning coach for Double-A Chattanooga, was also promoted to an assistant coach role on the MLB staff. Former Vanderbilt infielder Joel McKeithan has been named a major league assistant hitting coach and offensive coordinator. Bullpen catcher Nate Irving has taken over Arnsberg’s old role in Chattanooga, where he’ll also serve as the bench coach.
Reds Rumors
Reds Have Had Recent Trade Talks Regarding Castillo, Gray, Mahle
TODAY: The Rangers are one of the teams who have spoken to the Reds about their starters, according to Jon Morosi (via Twitter).
NOVEMBER 29: The Reds have had talks with multiple teams about starting pitchers Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Cincinnati has reportedly been open to dealing starting pitchers for weeks now, but Morosi suggests there have been recent discussions on all three from that trio.
Either Mahle (who has two years of control remaining after a breakout 2021) or Gray (who’s under contract for $10.2MM in 2022, with a $12MM club option for 2023) would figure to cost significantly less in prospect capital than would Castillo, whom Cincinnati is said to be loath to deal. Like Mahle, Castillo has two years of club control remaining. However, he also has a longer track record of consistent high-end production than Mahle, and he’s three years younger and less expensive than Gray, who is playing out the final two years of a contract extennsion.
An earlier report by Morosi had linked the Angels to Castillo, though he described those talks as “preliminary.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, however, that the Angels are at the “forefront” of the Castillo push, even as the Reds have told opposing GMs they prefer to hang onto their top starter.
Just how high a price Reds GM Nick Krall is asking for Castillo remains to be seen, but any team that’s come calling will have expected it to be high. In what was actually one of his lesser statistical seasons, Castillo posted a 3.98 ERA (3.75 FIP) across 187 2/3 innings against a career ERA of 3.72 (3.76 FIP) in parts of five major league seasons — all of which were spent playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park. He’s also been remarkably durable, taking the ball at least 31 times in each of his full seasons (and 12 times in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).
Castillo also closed out the year in particularly impressive fashion, recovering from an ugly April/May showing to post a 2.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP over his final 135 1/3 frames. Combine that with an eminently reasonable $7.6MM projected salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) and an additional year of club control, through the 2023 season, and it’s easy to see why the ask on Castillo would be sky-high.
The 32-year-old Gray, meanwhile, is plenty affordable in his own right. He hasn’t replicated the 2015 form that saw him finish third in AL Cy Young voting and may never reach that level again, but the right-hander has strongly bounced back from a poor showing with the Yankees that prompted his trade to Cincinnati.
In three years with the Reds, Gray carries a 3.49 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate that trounces the 20.9% mark he posted in his pre-Reds career. Last season’s 4.19 ERA was more solid than stellar, clearly, but Gray was also among the best in the game in terms of limiting hard contact. Most fielding-independent metrics feel he was quite a bit better than that baseline ERA indicates.
Mahle doesn’t carry the name value that his teammates do — but he’s developed into a quality mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons. Through his past 227 2/3 frames at the MLB level, Mahle owns a 3.72 ERA with an impressive 28.1% strikeout rate against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Walks and home runs have both been issues at times in his career, but he posted solid marks in both categories over the past two seasons — and one would imagine that a move away from Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park could also have a beneficial impact on his home-run rate.
Swartz projects a $5.6MM salary for Mahle, so any team acquiring him would have to figure it’s picking up two years of Mahle for under a total of $15MM in salary. There’s quite a bit of surplus value there, making Mahle a more enticing trade option than most would expect. Mahle turned 27 at the end of September, so he’ll pitch nearly all of the 2022 season at that age. Teams will likely view him as a pitcher whose stock is on the rise, and some may even have designs on extending him after a trade, given his age and recent strides.
National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21
We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.
As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:
- The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
- The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
- The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
- The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
- The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
- The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
- The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
- The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
- The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
- The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
- The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
- The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
- The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.
Reds Sign Aramis Garcia To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed catcher Aramis Garcia to a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, per a club announcement.
Garcia, 29 in January, is a former Giants prospect who once looked like a possible backup option to Buster Posey. He carries a solid .268/.333/.448 slash in 536 Triple-A plate appearances and turned in an impressive .286/.308/.492 debut as a rookie in 2018 — albeit through just 65 plate appearances. Garcia didn’t hit much in 46 plate appearances the following season, however, and he underwent major hip surgery in Feb. 2020 that kept him from playing that season.
Garcia spent the 2021 season with the A’s organization, hitting just .205/.239/.318 through 94 plate appearances in his first action since that labrum repair surgery in 2020. He did manage a more palatable .268/.323/.393 slash in 124 Triple-A plate appearances.
Bringing Garcia into the fold adds some depth to the organization after trading Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers earlier in the offseason. Tyler Stephenson is the clear starter behind the plate on the heels of an impressive rookie season that saw him hit .286/.366/.431 with 10 homers in 402 plate appearances. That production surely made it easier to move Barnhart, but it’s not clear at this point who’ll back him up.
Catching prospect and Team USA Silver Medalist Mark Kolozsvary was recently added to the 40-man roster and will compete for that spot, and utilityman Kyle Farmer has experience behind the dish as well. Farmer, however, saw extensive run at shortstop last season and fared well there on both sides of the game. He’s more likely an option in the infield than behind the plate, where he has just 90 career innings.
Angels Interested In Luis Castillo
The Angels and Reds have engaged in “preliminary trade talks” about right-hander Luis Castillo, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (Twitter link). No deal seems close, however, as “the sides are far apart as of today.”
While the Reds are known to be listening on offers for Castillo, latest reports have indicated that Cincinnati isn’t keen to part with either Castillo and Tyler Mahle. As Morosi plainly puts it, the Reds’ “price remains very high” for Castillo’s services.
It costs the Angels nothing to just ask about Castillo, of course, and given how Los Angeles is scouring the free agent market for pitching, it isn’t surprising that the Halos are also exploring trade possibilities. Noah Syndergaard has already signed with Anaheim, but the Angels could surely use at least one more starter for what is planned as a six-man rotation. Right now, Syndergaard, Shohei Ohtani, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, and Jaime Barria sit as the Angels’ top six choices.
Castillo is a good fit for the Angels for several reasons, starting with his obvious ability to be front-of-the-rotation type of arm. Castillo is also controllable and affordable for two more seasons via the arbitration system, with Castillo projected to earn $7.6MM this winter. Since the Angels have a longstanding aversion to long-term deals for starting pitchers, keeping Castillo on a short-term deal carries obvious appeal, especially since he would also cost much less than it would take to sign a top-tier free agent arm like Robbie Ray or Max Scherzer.
Of course, obtaining Castillo carries a different kind of steep cost. The Reds’ specific demands for Castillo aren’t known, but it’s easy to imagine the team wanting a big package of high-caliber young talent. Since Cincinnati isn’t pursuing an outright fire sale in its efforts to cut payroll, one would think the Reds might want at least one young player who can contribute in 2022, since the team is still hoping to contend in the NL Central.
Castillo has garnered interest all over the L.A. baseball scene, as the Dodgers have also reportedly had some talks with the Reds about a possible swap. While it is safe to guess that multiple teams have checked in on Castillo’s availability, the Twins are one of the teams who haven’t yet shown interest, according to SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson. Minnesota may have an even more severe need for veteran pitching than the Angels, yet it has been a quiet offseason overall for the Twins, with the exception of today’s contract extension with Byron Buxton.
Brian O’Grady Signs With NPB’s Seibu Lions
Former Padres, Rays and Reds first baseman/outfielder Brian O’Grady has signed with the Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball, per announcements from both the Lions and from O’Grady himself (Twitter link).
O’Grady, 29, became a free agent after being outrighted off San Diego’s roster at season’s end. The 2014 eighth-round pick (Reds) saw a career-high 61 plate appearances with the Friars in 2021, frequently operating as a pinch-hitter but also drawing a handful of starts in right field. O’Grady hit .157/.267/.333 with a pair of homers, three doubles and eight walks (13.1%).
The limited role wasn’t entirely new for O’Grady, who also saw action with the Reds in 2019 and Rays in 2020 without ever receiving an opportunity at consistent playing time. He’s a career .184/.283/.388 hitter in 114 Major League plate appearances — but those plate appearances have come over the course of 62 games.
O’Grady figures to be afforded far more opportunities in Japan, and given his career .284/.362/.551 batting line in 978 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, there’s good reason to believe he’ll find success overseas. Regardless of how he performs, he’ll quite likely be paid a guaranteed salary that handily eclipses what he’d have made in another season split between Triple-A and the big leagues. A strong season in Japan could either position O’Grady for a raise on a new contract in NPB or the KBO, and success in a foreign professional league could also prime him to return to MLB on a guaranteed contract at some point down the line.
Orioles Claim Cionel Perez
The Orioles have claimed lefty Cionel Perez off waivers from the Reds, per a team announcement. Baltimore’s 40-man roster is now full.
Perez, 25, was a prominent international signing out of Cuba by the Astros back in 2016, when current Orioles GM Mike Elias was an assistant GM in Houston. Cincinnati acquired him from Houston this past January, and he went on to tally 24 big league innings with a 6.38 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate, an 18.6% walk rate and a 51.5% ground-ball rate at the MLB level. In 50 2/3 innings between the Reds and the Astros, Perez has a 6.04 ERA.
While he’s worked exclusively as a reliever in the Majors, Perez has split his time between the rotation and the bullpen in the minors. He has a 4.46 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate in 82 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball, and although that walk rate is rather bloated, Perez’s 52% grounder rate in Triple-A is strong. He was particularly sharp in Triple-A Louisville this past season, notching a 3.26 ERA and 41-to-13 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings of relief.
Perez is out of minor league options, so if he makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, have to either break camp with the Orioles or else be exposed to waivers a second time.
Reds Reportedly Open To Trading Sonny Gray
The Reds are open to trading right-handed starter Sonny Gray this offseason, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). However, Olney hears that Cincinnati isn’t amenable to moving either of Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle.
No deal involving Gray appears to be close, but he’s seemingly the most likely Reds starter to wind up on the move at some point. That’s not especially surprising, since Gray’s also the most expensive of their top trio. Cincinnati has opened the offseason scaling back expenditures, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken about “aligning (the team’s) payroll to its resources.” Early reports suggested a Castillo deal could be part of those efforts, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that it was doubtful any deal involving the 28-year-old would come to fruition.
Gray looks like a fairly straightforward trade candidate as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. He’s slated to earn around $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. (Gray would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade). That’s a reasonable sum for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, but it also makes him Cincinnati’s fourth-highest paid player. And the three players set to earn loftier sums (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez) wouldn’t be easy to move. Votto’s a franchise icon who has full no-trade protection; Moustakas and Suárez are coming off bad 2021 seasons and wouldn’t figure to hold much appeal to other clubs.
On the other hand, Gray offers a blend of fairly substantial but still team-friendly salary that could make a trade realistic. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/3.85 SIERA across 135 1/3 innings. That’s decent mid-rotation production, and Gray was even better over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly home environments, the right-hander reeled off 231 1/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball from 2019-20.
Gray has backed up those solid results with strong underlying numbers. While he typically runs walk rates a bit higher than the league average, he also generates an enviable combination of punchouts and grounders. Gray has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball percentages in each of the past three seasons. His 27% and 47.2% marks in those categories in 2021 were his lowest since 2018, but even those were both markedly above the respective league averages (22.6% and 42.7%) for starting pitchers.
Installing Gray into the middle of a rotation should have plenty of appeal around the league. The Dodgers were already rumored to have interest in that possibility this offseason, and others would join them if the Reds’ front office began to discuss trade frameworks in earnest.
Both Castillo and Mahle could bring even greater returns, as they’re arguably superior pitchers who are more affordable. Like Gray, both righties are controllable for two more seasons, but they’re proceeding through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castillo for a $7.6MM salary in 2022; Mahle is projected to bring in around $5.6MM. Both pitchers would stand to earn a final raise in 2023, although it’s unlikely either would match or top the value of Gray’s $12.5MM option that year.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Reds are preparing to tear the roster down completely. Coming off an 83-win season with a strong core led by their talented rotation, it’s not implausible that Cincinnati could compete next season. A frugal offseason would certainly make building a strong roster more difficult for Krall and his front office, particularly with middle-of-the-order presence Nick Castellanos likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. A returning group including Castillo, Mahle, Votto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson certainly has promise, though. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target near-MLB players in potential discussions involving Gray to help thread that needle of remaining competitive while cutting costs.
Reds Select Hunter Greene, Four Others
The Reds selected the contract of top pitching prospect Hunter Greene, adding him to the 40-man roster, per a club announcement. Also selected to the 40-man roster were outfielder Allan Cerda and righties Alexis Diaz, Daniel Duarte and James Marinan. All five prospects are now protected from the Rule 5 Draft, and Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now full.
Greene, 22, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft as a shortstop/right-hander with a fastball that could run up to 102-103 mph. He’s undergone Tommy John surgery since that lofty selection but enjoyed a nice return campaign in 2021, tallying 106 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. The 6’5″, 230-pound Greene fanned 31.7% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate and a 43.8% walk rate. Regarded as one of the 50 best prospects in the game, Greene should be in line to make his big league debut at some point in 2022 — particularly if the Reds part ways with a starter via trade this winter (e.g. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle).
The 21-year-old Cerda is the only other one of today’s additions who ranks as a consensus top-30 farmhand in the Reds organization. Cerda hit .250/.361/.523 with 17 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and a pair of steals (albeit in a concerning 10 tries) through 363 plate appearances between two Class-A levels. A right-handed hitter with big raw power and above-average speed, Cerda can handle center field but also has questions about his hit tool.
Marinan, 23, was the Reds’ fourth-round pick in 2017 and logged a 4.31 ERA with a 22.3% strikeout rate but an alarming 14.4% walk rate in 64 2/3 innings this season — mostly spent as a starter. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives him credit for three potentially average (or better) offerings, but questions about the 6’5″ right-hander’s command drag his stock down.
Both Diaz and Duarte are relievers heading into their age-25 seasons. Diaz posted a 3.83 ERA with a huge 38.9% strikeout rate through 42 1/3 Double-A frames, but he also walked 11.1% of his opponents. Duarte began the 2021 season pitching in the Mexican League but impressed upon joining the Reds, posting a 31.4% strikeout rate in 23 2/3 frames across multiple levels. Like Diaz and Marinan, walks have been an issue.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/18/21
Some recent minor moves from around baseball:
- The Orioles are re-signing righty Marcos Diplán to a minor league contract, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to big league Spring Training. Diplán made his first 23 big league appearances this past season, working 30 frames of relief. The 25-year-old managed a respectable 4.50 ERA, but that came with an unimpressive 19.5% strikeout rate and an elevated 12.2% walk percentage. The O’s outrighted Diplán off the 40-man roster after the season, but he’ll return to the organization and look to pitch his way back onto the big league club next spring.
- The Reds agreed to a minors pact with righty Connor Overton yesterday, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 28-year-old made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays in August, then landed with the Pirates via waivers the following month. Between the two clubs, he tossed 15 1/3 innings of 4.70 ERA ball with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Overton had a great showing with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, posting a 2.03 ERA in 57 2/3 frames — working mostly out of the bullpen.
- The Cubs reached agreement on a minor league deal earlier this week with catcher Tyler Payne, per a report from Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Payne made his big league debut on the final day of the regular season, going hitless in two plate appearances. Chicago outrighted him off the 40-man roster after the season but they’ll bring the 29-year-old back to bolster their organizational depth behind the plate. The right-handed hitting Payne posted a .231/.291/.363 line over 234 plate appearances with Double-A Tennessee this year.
