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Quick Hits: Howard, International Prospects, Smith, Pirates

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A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies’ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels.  If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.

A few more items as we kick off Sunday…

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2.  The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
  • Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM.  Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
  • Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all.  The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.”  Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with.  You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested.  I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.”  Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.

Indians Option Five Players To Triple-A

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The Indians announced a batch of minor league options today, as left-handers Logan Allen and Scott Moss, first baseman Bobby Bradley, infielder Yu Chang, and outfielder Daniel Johnson were all optioned to Triple-A Columbus.  Johnson and Moss are the only members of the quintet who have yet to reach the big leagues.

Allen is perhaps the headline name of the group, ranked in top-100 prospect listings prior to last season when he was still throwing in the Padres’ farm system.  The 22-year-old southpaw was one of the key pieces of the trade package Cleveland acquired from San Diego as part of the three-team deal last summer that also brought Franmil Reyes to the Tribe and sent Trevor Bauer to the Reds (Moss also came to Cleveland in that trade, from Cincinnati).

Allen got his first taste of MLB action in 2019, posting a 6.18 ERA over 27 2/3 combined innings with the Padres and Indians.  Small sample size notwithstanding, it was something of a rough year all around for Allen, as he also posted a 5.85 ERA over 80 Triple-A innings last season.  Those minor league stats, of course, come with the caveat that Triple-A pitching numbers were inflated across the board in 2019, due in large part to the adoption of the livelier Major League baseball.

There was some speculation that Allen could have begun the 2020 season in the Tribe’s rotation, as Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco were both facing injured list stints for at least the opening couple of weeks.  With the schedule now pushed back indefinitely, however, it seems likely that Clevinger and Carrasco will be healthy by the time the 2020 season gets underway, so Allen is now ticketed for Columbus.

Johnson was also seen as a speculative candidate to make the team, given the uncertain nature of Cleveland’s outfield.  Johnson hit decently well (.267/.353/.400 over 17 PA) during Spring Training but be sent back to Triple-A for more regular playing time.  Acquired from the Nationals as part of the Yan Gomes trade in November 2018, Johnson hit .290/.361/.507 with 19 homers over 547 combined PA at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season.

Carlos Carrasco Questionable For Opening Day

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Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed by inflammation in his right elbow (and, earlier, a hip flexor strain) this spring. And while an MRI confirmed that Carrasco is not dealing with any structural damage, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters today that it could be a “stretch” for Carrasco to be ready for Opening Day (Twitter thread via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Carrasco will be held back from throwing for a few more days.

It’s mixed news for Indians fans, as nothing from Antonetti’s comments suggested that Carrasco is expected to require a significant absence. But the Cleveland organization already has Mike Clevinger on the shelf as he recovers from surgery to repair a partial meniscus tear, and this winter’s slate of rule changes upped the minimum IL stint for pitchers from 10 days back to 15 days. If Carrasco is indeed placed on the injured list, that stint can still be backdated up to three days, but he’d be looking at missing at least the first dozen days of the 2020 campaign.

With Clevinger and Carrasco perhaps both sitting on the IL to begin the season, the Indians will likely give 2019 breakout righty Shane Bieber the Opening Day nod. He’d be followed by a quartet of relatively inexperienced arms: Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko and Logan Allen. (Civale has been bothered by a groin issue himself, though Antonetti indicated today that he’s expected to be ready for the opener.)

The Indians’ rotation is in somewhat of a transitional state — at least as pertains to the final couple of slots. Each of Bieber (controlled through 2024), Clevinger (controlled through 2022) and Carrasco (signed through 2023) should be locks for the next few years, health permitting. However, two of Civale, Plesac, Allen, Plutko and prospects Triston McKenzie and Scott Moss will likely be counted on to eventually seize permanent starting jobs. Viewed through that lens, even brief absences for the club’s top arms early in the season could serve as a continued audition for many arms the organization hopes will emerge as core pieces.

Indians, Francisco Lindor Halt Extension Talks

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Any hope of a spring extension agreement between the Indians and star shortstop Francisco Lindor now seems to be gone. The 26-year-old tells Jason Lloyd of The Athletic (subscription link) that he and the team have “set aside” their talks on a long-term deal for the time being.

While it seems substantial talks have taken place, they obviously didn’t gain much traction. Lindor says that the club did not make an offer up to or over the $300MM level. He recently informed the front office that he would prefer to focus on the season ahead.

Just where the Cleveland organization was willing to go isn’t clear, but Lindor doesn’t seem inclined to take a big discount. He tells Lloyd that a contract along the lines of the recent Christian Yelich deal — $188.5MM of new money — wouldn’t hold appeal. And Lindor says he’s “very aware” of “what’s fair for both sides,” because he has personally “studied it.”

Lindor says he’s not bitter about the situation and remains interested in remaining in Cleveland over the long haul. But as Lloyd explains, that’s harder than ever to imagine.

With no evident possibility of a spring deal — barring a renewed pursuit by the club at a higher dollar amount, perhaps — the focus will now be on the summer trade market. If the Indians aren’t in a competitive position, they’ll surely at least entertain offers on Lindor.

All of the impediments to an agreement have long been evident, so this news doesn’t come as a surprise. But there had been some hope that the sides might figure out a way to line up, as both expressed an interest in doing so.

Quick Hits: Sanchez, Mercado, Singer, Guerra

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Yet another Yankees star is dealing with an injury, as Gary Sanchez has missed the last two days of Spring Training action due to back soreness.  Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that Sanchez will also sit out Monday’s game before hopefully returning to the field on Tuesday, though “we will kind of see how he responds.”  Sanchez said his back was already feeling improved after a day off, so there doesn’t appear to be any reason for serious concern at this point, despite Sanchez’s already rather checkered health history (plus the seemingly never-ending string of injuries to afflict the Yankees over the last year).

More from around the baseball world….

  • Oscar Mercado had an injury scare of his own when he left Thursday’s game after hurting his wrist diving for a ball in center field.  The Indians outfielder was diagnosed with a sprain, but “thankfully it was nothing” serious, Mercado told MLB.com’s Mandy Bell and other reporters this afternoon.  Mercado has already discarded the wrap that he had around his wrist for the last two days, and is now “getting better every day” after some initial discomfort.  “I’ve dove for balls, caught my wrist and stuff, it’s never hurt….That was one where I dove and I knew it was awkward, but the pain was pretty big, so I got scared,” Mercado said.  Given the positive early reports, Mercado might be on pace to achieve his goal of playing in Cleveland’s Opening Day lineup.
  • The Royals continue to look at top prospect Brady Singer in big league camp, and there’s still a chance Singer could fill the fifth starter role, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes.  Singer has a 4.76 ERA over 5 2/3 spring innings, striking out six batters and walking four.  Given that Singer has never even pitched at the Triple-A level yet, it would be a surprise to see him in the majors quite so soon, though Kansas City is clearly intrigued by the 23-year-old.  Selected 18th overall in the 2018 draft, Singer posted a 2.85 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 3.54 K/BB rate over 148 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels, and is cited on the current top-100 prospect lists posted by MLB.com (59th) and Baseball Prospectus (64th).  There isn’t necessarily any urgency about the Opening Day roster, as since the Royals won’t need a fifth starter until April 8, Singer could continue to work out at extended Spring Training.  If not Singer, K.C. could use Jorge Lopez as a fifth starter, or perhaps use an opener rather than a traditional starter to handle the rotation spot.
  • Javy Guerra has recorded five strikeouts over 5 1/3 scoreless Spring Training innings, and is looking like a realistic candidate to make the Padres’ Opening Day bullpen, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  Guerra (not to be confused with longtime veteran reliever Javy Guerra, who pitches for the Nationals) was once a highly-regarded shortstop prospect coming up in the Padres’ farm system, but his progress stalled after three lackluster years at the plate.  He converted to pitching at the end of last year’s Spring Training in an effort to revive his career, and the early returns have been very impressive — Guerra posted a 3.38 ERA, 12.7 K/9, and 3.00 K/BB rate over 21 1/3 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball last season before getting an eight-game audition in San Diego’s bullpen last season.  Now, the out-of-options Guerra is throwing his fastball at 99mph and, according to manager Jayce Tingler, could be in line for a multi-inning relief role.  “I’ve never seen somebody in (11) months go from shortstop to do what he’s done on the mound,” Tingler said.  “I’ve seen guys converted.  I’ve never seen such easy strikes with such premier velocity with movement and the ability to throw a secondary pitch.  Then having a shortstop background, somebody who can bounce off and make…plays, it’s like having a fifth infielder out there.”

Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

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We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.

Oscar Mercado Day-To-Day With Sprained Wrist

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MARCH 7: Fortunately, it seems Mercado has avoided serious injury. The MRI revealed a “mild sprain,” tweets Zack Meisel of the Athletic. He’s currently day-to-day.

MARCH 6: Indians center fielder Oscar Mercado will undergo an MRI on his left wrist after injuring it while making a diving catch in yesterday’s Cactus League game, the team revealed to reporters (Twitter link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Mercado laid out to catch a shallow fly in center field and immediately came up clutching his wrist (video link). He immediately exited the game in obvious pain. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd tweets that Mercado will be evaluated by hand specialist Dr. Thomas Graham, and an update will likely be provided tomorrow.

Mercado, 25, broke out with a strong rookie campaign in 2019, cementing himself as Cleveland’s center fielder with a .269/.318/.443 batting line, 15 home runs, 25 doubles, three triples and 15 steals. Mercado played a well above-average center field by virtually any available metric (+10 Defensive Runs Saved, +2.8 Ultimate Zone Rating, +5 Outs Above Average). While there’s been plenty of ink dedicated to the uncertainty in the Indians’ corner outfield slots, Mercado’s grip on the center field job has never been in question.

Should the Indians receive bad news, their acquisition of Delino DeShields Jr. in the Corey Kluber trade will give them an experienced center field option to plug in on a short-term basis. DeShields can’t match Mercado’s offensive production — he’s a career .246/.326/.342 hitter (76 wRC+) — but is a similarly well-regarded defender with even more speed to burn. Fellow speedster Greg Allen also has ample experience in center field, too.

Injuries have been an issue for Cleveland early in camp, as Mike Clevinger has undergone knee surgery and Emmanuel Clase (acquired alongside DeShields in the aforementioned Kluber swap) will miss up to 12 weeks after being diagnosed with a strained teres major.

9 AL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years

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We’ve already looked at potential bounce-back candidates from the American League West and the AL East. Let’s now move to the AL Central and begin with established hitters who may be able to rebound in 2020.

Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins:

The free-swinging Rosario was a 32-home run hitter last season, but despite that, his fWAR plummeted from 3.5 in 2018 to 1.2. His overall line in 590 plate appearances (.276/.300/.500 – good for a 103 wRC+) was close to average, owing in part to the sport’s fifth-lowest walk rate (3.7 percent). And whereas Rosario received positive marks as a fielder in 2018, he notched minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-5.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and the game’s worst Outs Above Average mark (minus-17) a year ago.

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians:

Ramirez was one of the most valuable players in baseball from 2017-18, though a slow start and a 5 percent-plus drop in walk rate last year doomed the switch hitter to a mediocre .255/.327/.479 line in 542 plate appearances. That said, Ramirez still finished with 23 homers, 24 steals and 3.3 fWAR, so he wasn’t exactly a drain on Cleveland’s lineup. And Ramirez was infinitely better after the All-Star break (176 wRC+ in the second half, 68 in the first), giving the Indians hope he’ll be at his best from the get-go this year.

Franmil Reyes, DH/OF, Indians:

While Ramirez came alive in the second half of the season, Reyes was somewhat disappointing after the Indians acquired him from the Padres in July. The 24-year-old still concluded with 37 HRs, but he saw his wRC+ (109) drop by 20 points from the prior season and his on-base percentage go down by 30 points. In all, he was a .249/.310/.512 hitter. Nevertheless, the powerful 24-year-old did rank in baseball’s 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 99th percentile in average exit velocity.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, Tigers:

Cabrera is undoubtedly one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but it’s fair to say he’s nowhere near the offensive force he was during his halcyon days. Thanks in part to knee problems, the 36-year-old was pedestrian at the plate in 2019, when he batted .282/.346/.398 with 12 home runs and a career-low ISO (.116) across 549 appearances. Cabrera also posted one of the lowest walk percentages of his career (8.7) and, according to Statcast, saw his average exit velocity fall by 4 mph and his hard-hit rate drop by 10 percent compared to the numbers he logged during an injury-shortened 2018. Regardless of whether Cabrera rebounds, the Tigers aren’t going to contend in 2020. However, it would be reassuring for the team to see a glimpse of vintage Cabrera, who’s still owed $132MM through 2023.

C.J. Cron, 1B, Tigers:

One of Cabrera’s newest teammates in Detroit, Cron’s coming off a so-so season with the division-rival Twins. Although Cron did hit 25 home runs, the type of production he recorded as a Ray the previous season wasn’t really there. He wound up with a .253/.311/.469 line (101 wRC+, down from 123 in 2018) over 499 trips to the plate. There were some positive signs, though: Cron’s strikeout rate went down by 4.5 percent, his swinging-strike percentage declined by roughly 2 percent and he was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the league in several categories – including hard-hit percentage (82nd percentile), average exit velocity (84th) and expected weighted on-base average (86th).

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers:

Candelario was a 2.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season in the majors, but devolved into a replacement-level performer last season. The switch-hitting 26-year-old batted a weak .203/.306/.337 with eight homers in 386 PA, and the Tigers banished him to the minors for a good portion of the season because of his uninspiring output at the sport’s highest level. Statcast didn’t offer any reasons for hope, either, ranking Candelario in the game’s 17th percentile in xwOBA, its 24th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 31st percentile in average exit velocity.

Salvador Perez, C, Royals:

The typically durable Perez, 29, didn’t play at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, though it seems he’s coming along well in his recovery. Assuming he does stay on track, the Royals will have to hope for better numbers than what the highly respected six-time All-Star offered when he last took the field in 2018. Back then, Perez registered an unspectacular .235/.274/.439 line in 544 PA and earned bottom-of-the-barrel grades as a pitch framer; however, he did throw out an incredible 48 percent of would-be base stealers.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Royals:

Once a quality prospect, Franco seldom lived up to the hype in Philadelphia from 2014-19. Last season was especially rough for Franco, who hit a disastrous .234/.297/.409 in 428 attempts en route to minus-0.5 fWAR. The rebuilding Royals then bought low on Franco in free agency, signing him for a $2.95MM guarantee. Franco’s still just 27, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration in 2021, so he’s worth a shot for Kansas City.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Royals:

O’Hearn was fantastic during his 170-PA major league debut in 2018, but things fell apart over a much larger sample size last season. The 26-year-old amassed 370 PA and stumbled to a .195/.281/.369 showing. A 63-point drop in batting average on balls in play (.230) didn’t help, though, and O’Hearn did put up above-average exit velocity and hard-hit marks. However, he only ranked in the league’s 24th percentile in xwOBA (.308, compared to a .279 real wOBA).

Injury Notes: Mercado, Robles, Brigham, Ginn

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Some updates on injuries from around baseball, including an unfortunate blow for one of the nation’s top draft prospects:

  • Indians’ outfielder Oscar Mercado left this afternoon’s spring training game with a sprained left wrist, per reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated tomorrow, Bell adds. The 25-year-old is perhaps the best player in an uncertain Cleveland outfield mix. If the injury were to affect Mercado’s availability in the season’s early going, it’s likely Terry Francona would turn center field over to Delino DeShields, Jr. Acquired from the Rangers in this offseason’s Corey Kluber swap, DeShields is a high-quality defender and baserunner, but his bat has never come around at the MLB level. He hit just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+) with Texas last year, significantly worse than Mercado’s .269/.318/.443 (95 wRC+) line.
  • Another speedster, Nationals’ center fielder Víctor Robles, has been working back from an injury of his own. Fortunately, the outlook seems promising. The 22-year-old is swinging without pain, manager Dave Martinez tells reporters (including Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). Robles is still feeling some soreness in his oblique while throwing and running, though, so the club is understandably playing things cautiously. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robles hit a passable .255/.326/.419 (91 wRC+) in his first full MLB season in 2019.
  • Marlins’ reliever Jeff Brigham is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s dealing with a right biceps issue that has thus far kept him from ramping up his throwing program. The 28-year-old logged only a 4.46 ERA with average strikeout (24.2%) and walk (8.7%) rates in 32 appearances last season. However, the former Dodger farmhand averaged 96.6 MPH on his heater with significant fastball and slider spin. That quality stuff helps to explain the Marlins’ decision to keep Brigham on the 40-man roster this winter despite an offseason full of churn in the bullpen.
  • Former Dodgers’ first-rounder J.T. Ginn underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, Mississippi State head coach Chris Lemonis announced. The 30th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Ginn turned down pro ball to head to MSU. The 20-year-old righty shined as a freshman in 2019 and looked to be a potential high draft pick again this June as a draft-eligible sophomore. He’ll still be eligible for the draft, of course, but it’ll be interesting to see if any team would be willing to offer him enough to persuade him against returning to Starkville for his junior season.
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