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Players Added To 40-Man Roster: National League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from National League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

NL West

  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
  • The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
  • The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona’s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.

NL Central

  • The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
  • Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
  • Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
  • The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.

NL East

Chris Antonetti On Francisco Lindor

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We may be in for weeks of speculation centering on Indians superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor, who’s a potential trade candidate because he’s running out of team control and unlikely to sign an extension. For instance, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com runs down reasons to trade Lindor now that he’s down to his second-last year of arbitration eligibility, while Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com names potential in-house replacements for the long haul should the Indians deal the 26-year-old. The team is indeed “receiving a lot of trade calls” for Lindor, Jon Heyman of MLB.com tweets. As you’d expect, though, the Indians’ public stance is that Lindor is likely to stay put. “My expectation is Frankie will be the shortstop Opening Day next year,” president Chris Antonetti said.

Here’s more from the game’s Central divisions…

  • Tigers general manager Al Avila said this week that a “bat” – likely either an outfielder or a first baseman – as well as a backup catcher are on his shopping list, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com relays. It doesn’t seem that the Tigers will be adding a shortstop from outside, though. Rather, it looks as if utilityman Niko Goodrum is the favorite to land the job. Avila’s of the belief that young shortstop Willi Castro and catcher Jake Rogers, who made their major league debuts in 2019, need more seasoning at the Triple-A level.
  • Various injuries have prevented 25-year-old Cardinals right-hander Alex Reyes from realizing his vast potential, but it appears he’ll enjoy “a normal offseason progression” this winter, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Reyes, once among the game’s elite prospects, had an outstanding debut over 46 innings in 2016. He then missed all of 2017 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, threw 27 innings in 2018 (four in the majors) as a result of surgery to repair a tendon in his lat muscle and totaled just 40 1/3 frames this year (three at the MLB level) because of multiple health issues – including a strained pectoral.
  • Pirates infielder Erik Gonzalez underwent left foot surgery Wednesday and won’t resume baseball activities for 10 to 12 weeks, Adam Berry of MLB.com tweets. It’s the second time Gonzalez has undergone surgery as a Pirate. The offseason acquisition from last winter underwent a procedure in April to repair a fractured left clavicle, which was one of multiple injuries that helped sideline him for the majority of the 2019 campaign. The 28-year-old posted woeful production over the 156 plate appearances he amassed, as he hit .254/.301/.317 with only one home run. He’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration in 2020.

Exploring The Francisco Lindor Dilemma

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To kick things off this Sunday morning, we’ll round up a few odds and ends from the American League.

  • The Rays will look to address their offense this offseason, says GM Erik Neander (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Specifically, Neander singled out catcher as an area the front office will need to address. Travis d’Arnaud was quite effective in Tampa after being acquired in a minor trade with the Dodgers, but he’s now a free agent. The Rays could explore a reunion with d’Arnaud, Topkin adds, although his strong season positions him well among the second tier of catchers on the open market. (MLBTR forecasts a two year, $14MM deal for the veteran backstop). Mike Zunino remains under team control, but his $4.9MM arbitration projection makes for a tough call for an organization with ever-looming payroll limitations.
  • Speaking of low-revenue clubs, when is the appropriate time for the Indians to market Francisco Lindor? That question is explored by ESPN’s Buster Olney, who argues that a Lindor trade is a question of ’when,’ not ’if.’ Lindor is unquestionably one of the game’s best talents and its most marketable personalities, but there’s no indication Cleveland believes they’ll keep him in the fold long-term. Lindor will take home hefty arbitration sums each of the next two years; MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects a $16.7MM award this offseason, with another raise after next year almost certainly to follow. As Olney notes, the Orioles were underwhelmed with the offers they received on their superstar infielder, Manny Machado, when they shopped him in the 2017-18 offseason with one season remaining of team control. Perhaps Cleveland would be better suited to jump the market and trade Lindor while he still has two seasons before reaching free agency, although doing so would obviously be a massive blow to the team’s chances of contending in 2020.
  • Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom joined WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the latest episode of the Bradfo Sho podcast. Bloom explained that he’s making progress in getting up to date on the Red Sox’s systems and getting to know key people in the organization, including Mookie Betts, who figures to dominate the rumors circuit until Boston makes a decision on his future. Bloom also addressed the difficulty for front office members in trading away players to whom they’ve developed personal connections, J.D. Martinez’s decision to opt-in to his contract, and the payroll discrepancy between his former employer, the Rays, and the Red Sox in a wide-ranging conversation.

Trevor Bauer Explores Different Agency Experience, Becomes First Client Of Luba Sports

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Enigmatic hurler Trevor Bauer has left the Wasserman Media Group to become the first client of Luba Sports, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Luba Sports is a new sports agency started by Rachel Luba, who officially became certified as an MLB agent on November 1st. Luba Sports will make up just one part of Bauer’s new representation, however. Bauer hired another certified MLB agent, Jon Fetterolf, a litigator from Zuckerman Spaeder who has a history of assisting agents in arbitration proceedings.

Bauer had no qualms with his previous agency, who did, after all, help him win consecutive arbitration cases against the Cleveland Indians, but at this stage in his career, he’s looking not only at his own upcoming arbitration case, but at the system as a whole. Surprise surprise, but the innovative and free-thinking Bauer has eyes towards making a difference for the betterment of players. Still, Bauer makes a point not to disparage the Wasserman Media Group or the current system. Rather, he aims to give players another option of representation moving forward

As such, the structure of representation set up between Bauer, Luba, and Fetterolf differs from the standard practice in baseball, in which players typically pay 5% of their salaries to their agents upon reaching the majors. Instead, Fetterolf will make a lower commission (1.5 to 2.5%) that differs depending on the player’s career status, plus an hourly rate. Still, the overall fee caps at 5% for an arbitration-eligible player and 4% for a free agent. Depending on the hourly workload, then, players have the potential to pay a good deal less under this structure.

The goal of this system would be to allow players to pay strictly for services rendered, thereby allowing a more personalized agency experience. Rather than being locked into the commission model, an “a la carte” system gives players the option of paying less for fewer services (or paying more for more). This would not wholly upend the player-agent relationship, though it does provide an interesting opportunity for players to reconsider the current structure and explore a system that might work more in their favor. It’s certainly on brand for Bauer to push for this type of innovation, and it will be interesting to follow the extent to which Luba Sports or similar agencies can make inroads with the MLB player community.

Bauer and Luba’s relationship dates back to their days as undergraduates at UCLA when they met in a communication studies class. Luba would go on to become an attorney and work for the players’ union during the 2018 arbitration season. She would be offered a position as an agent with another agency, but chose to forge her own path instead.

The timing here, of course, is not coincidental as Bauer prepares for his final time through arbitration this winter. MLB Contributor Matt Swartz projects Bauer to earn $18.6MM with the Reds this season.

Indians Outright Four Pitchers

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The Indians announced today that they have outrighted four pitchers from their 40-man roster. Lefty Tyler Olson and righties Cody Anderson, A.J. Cole, and Danny Salazar all elected free agency in lieu of a minor-league assignment.

That’s a rather notable group of arms for the pitching-rich Cleveland organization to cast out onto the open market. Olson was still a bit shy of arbitration eligibility, but the three right-handers would have qualified. Anderson and Cole each projected to earn $800K, while Salazar could have anticipated a repeat of his $4.5MM salary.

Olson, 30, had shown a surprising leap in swinging-strike rate in 2018. While he still allowed more earned runs than you’d like to see, the club understandably believed he’d be a useful hurler — particularly as a lefty specialist. As it turned out, Olson fell back to earth with a big velocity drop. He ended the campaign with 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and 8.2 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9.

The 29-year-old Anderson has long struggled with health issues but was able to return to the bigs for the first time since 2016. Unfortunately, he was knocked around in 8 2/3 innings at the game’s highest level.

Cole delivered an intriguing stat line on the surface, with a 3.81 ERA and 30:8 K/BB ratio over 26 innings. He’s still 27 years of age, averaged just under 95 mph with his fastball, and has maintained about a 14% swinging-strike rate in a relief role over the past two seasons. It’s tough to argue with the Indians front office when it comes to pitching decisions, but it’ll be interesting to see whether Cole is claimed.

As for Salazar, the best-known name on this list, his time in Cleveland will finally come to a close. That was a foregone conclusion by now. The injury-riddled former All-Star did show intriguing strikeout ability in his minor-league rehab run and made it back to the majors for one outing. But he ended up back on the injured list thereafter and eventually asked to be excused from the organization while struggling in yet another rehab effort.

Indians Promote Ruben Niebla To Assistant Pitching Coach

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The latest notable coaching news from around the majors…

  • Diamondbacks bench coach Jerry Narron has elected to leave the team’s staff, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com tweets. Narron spent the previous two-plus years as manager Torey Lovullo’s top lieutenant in Arizona, though the club moved Luis Urueta into that role after the season. It’s unclear at this point if Narron has an opportunity lined up elsewhere. Now 63 years old, Narron’s a former big league catcher who has managed the Rangers (2001-02) and Reds (2005-07).
  • The Athletics have made a few changes to their staff, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle details. First base coach Al Pedrique is moving across the field to take over for third base coach Matt Williams, who will manage in Korea next season. Matt Aldrete will go from assistant hitting coach to first base coach to fill Pedrique’s void. Meanwhile, Eric Martins will assume the role of assistant hitting coach after coaching in the A’s minor league system for half a decade.
  • Longtime Rays coach Tom Foley has decided to retire at the age of 60, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Foley, a professional infielder from 1983-1995, spent a combined 16 years in multiple coaching positions for the Rays. He worked as a special assistant with the club over the previous two seasons.
  • Along with the previously reported decision to promote Brian Sweeney to bullpen coach, the Indians have moved Ruben Niebla to assistant pitching coach, Mandy Bell of MLB.com relays. A former minor league right-hander, Niebla will enter his 20th year as an Indians coach in 2020. He spent the previous seven seasons as the Indians’ minor league pitching coordinator. Niebla’s “big on analytics” and widely respected in the organization, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic.

Indians Exercise Kluber’s Option, Decline Options On Kipnis, Otero

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TODAY: The moves are now official, as per the Associated Press.  Kluber’s option was exercised, while the Indians bought out Kipnis and Otero.

OCTOBER 2: Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti announced at the beginning of today’s meeting with the media that the team intends to exercise its $17.5MM club option on right-hander Corey Kluber (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). The Indians are planning to decline their $16.5MM option on second baseman Jason Kipnis in favor of a $2.5MM buyout, however, and they’ll also decline righty Dan Otero’s $1.5MM option in favor of a $100K buyout.

Corey Kluber | Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports

Although the 2019 season was a disaster for Kluber, it was never plausible that the Indians would move on from the two-time AL Cy Young winner. Kluber’s 2019 season was truncated by a forearm fracture suffered when a comeback line-drive struck him back in May. He missed nearly three months of the season and, when he was nearing a return, sustained an oblique injury that ultimately ended his year.

Even when healthy, Kluber turned in an alarming 5.80 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. However, he was plagued by a lofty .370 average on balls in play and a low 63.8 percent strand rate (career 74.7 percent), both of which seemed due for regression. His average fastball velocity was down a bit from his 2018 totals, but a look at Kluber’s readings through the beginning of May in 2018 reveals a 91.7 mph average fastball that aligns with his 91.6 mph average in 2019. Put another way: there was minimal evidence to suggest that Kluber is suddenly on a decline of this magnitude just one year after his fourth Top 3 Cy Young finish in five seasons.

Perhaps if he’d been due to become a free agent after the 2020 season, the organization would’ve given slightly more consideration to moving on (doubtful), but Kluber’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2021 season. The Indians have been working to pare back their payroll since the beginning of last offseason, but there’s no realistic scenario in which they shy away from a $16.5MM decision on Kluber — he’d have been owed a $1MM buyout regardless — that comes with a similarly priced option for an additional season.

Jason Kipnis | Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

In the case of Kipnis, the decision was similarly straightforward. Although he briefly ranked among the game’s best second baseman, the now-32-year-old Kipnis (33 on April 3) hasn’t had an above-average season at the plate since 2016. Over his past 1485 plate appearances, he’s managed just a .236/.305/.403 batting line (86 OPS+). Add in the fact that his season ended with a fractured hamate bone that required surgical repair, and Kipnis surely saw the writing on the wall.

Lewis tweets that the team is still open to a reunion with Kipnis at a lower price, but that will depend on the level of interest expressed by other teams. Given the number of second base alternatives both in free agency and on the trade market, it’s quite possible that Kipnis will eventually have to settle for a one-year deal, so perhaps a reunion shouldn’t be ruled out. Kipnis does have a bit of experience in the outfield, which could enhance his appeal to new clubs, but he’s graded out poorly in his limited work away from second base.

It’s similarly unsurprising to see the team move on from Otero, despite the affordable nature of his option. He’ll turn 35 this February and has seen a sharp decline of his own since a brilliant run in 2016-17. Otero gave the Indians 130 2/3 innings of 2.14 ERA ball with a 95-to-19 K/BB ratio and only eight homers allowed in that ’16-’17 peak, but he’s been rocked for a 5.09 ERA with 18 home runs in 88 1/3 innings since that time. Otero still possesses superlative control, as he’s averaged less than one walk per nine innings pitched over the past two seasons, but he’s also seen his sinker dip to an average if 89.5 mph.

As far as the coaching staff is concerned, manager Terry Francona announced that the team has dismissed bullpen coach Scott Atchison but will retain the rest of his staff for the 2020 season (Twitter link via Zack Meisel of The Athletic).

Indians Name Brian Sweeney Bullpen Coach

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Let’s check in on a few teams from the majors’ Central divisions…

  • A month after their season ended, the Pirates made the surprising decision to fire general manager Neal Huntington on Monday. There are already at least a few potential replacements for Huntington, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey, who names Blue Jays senior vice president, player personnel Tony LaCava, Yankees scout Marc DelPiano and Brewers assistant GM Matt Arnold as names who could be in the running. Whether the Pirates hire a member of that group or someone else, that person will be taking over a small-market club that has come under fire for its lack of spending. Owner Bob Nutting addressed the criticism Monday, telling Bill Brink of the Post-Gazette and others, “The idea that we are hoarding cash as a team is simply not accurate, and we will find a more compelling and complete way to make sure that that is an issue that simply is not on the table.” Newly named team president Travis Williams stated the Pirates hope to “model ourselves after” clubs in similar markets that have been able to consistently succeed despite financial disadvantages.
  • The Royals “will be as aggressive as payroll will allow” when it comes to addressing their bullpen this offseason, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. Left-hander Jake Diekman, whom the Royals traded to the Athletics in July, could be one target for Kansas City, per Flanagan. Diekman enjoyed his time in KC, which is close to his native Nebraska, and will wind up back on the free-agent market if the A’s go the expected route of buying out his $5.75MM mutual option for $500K. Diekman’s control totally failed him in Oakland this season, but the hard-throwing 32-year-old was at least a legitimate source of strikeouts as a member of the Royals, with whom he posted a 4.75 ERA with 13.6 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9 across 41 2/3 innings.
  • The Indians have promoted Brian Sweeney to bullpen coach, per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. He’ll will take over for Scott Atchison, whom manager Terry Francona dismissed earlier this month. The 45-year-old Sweeney’s a former professional right-hander who will enter his third season as a member of Cleveland’s coaching staff in 2020.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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After posting only a 29-30 record through June 2, the Indians played .621 baseball the rest of the way but couldn’t catch up to the Twins in the AL Central, or to the Athletics and Rays in the AL wild card race.  It was a tough result for a team in “win-now” mode, and now the Tribe will have to retool in order to take advantage while their (perhaps rapidly closing?) competitive window is still open.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $37.25MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $17.5MM through 2020 (club option will be exercised; Indians also have $18MM club option for 2021 with $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM through 2020 ($17.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $17.25MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $7MM through 2020 ($10MM club option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $3.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM club option for 2021, $450K buyout)
  • Oliver Perez, RP: $3MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking at the position players, Cleveland has a very nice core group of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, and Franmil Reyes heading into 2020.  Jordan Luplow’s huge numbers against left-handed pitching will merit at least a platoon role in either corner outfield slot, and since the Tribe’s outfield situation is still rather unsettled outside of Mercado in center field, Luplow has a decent shot of winning an everyday job in Spring Training.

It also remains to be seen if Reyes could be an option in right field.  Though Reyes has shown very little fielding aptitude over his young career, the Indians would certainly like to see if Reyes can be a passable option on at least a part-time basis before relegating him to DH-only duty at age 24.  One would also think that the Indians would prefer to keep the designated hitter position open so multiple players could be rotated through DH days in order to keep everyone fresh.

Assuming Reyes will mostly be a DH in 2020, that leaves Luplow, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, and Bradley Zimmer battling for playing time in the corner outfield slots, with Tyler Naquin entering the mix sometime between mid-April or mid-June as he recovers from a torn ACL.  Prospect Daniel Johnson (acquired from the Nationals in last offseason’s Yan Gomes trade) is also knocking on the door after a big season at Triple-A.

It isn’t a stellar collection of names on paper, but there’s enough promise here that Cleveland might prefer to see what it has rather than pursue an everyday corner outfielder (like, for instance, a re-signed Yasiel Puig).  In particular, the Indians are hoping that Bauers can start to blossom after a disappointing first year in Cleveland, while Zimmer is looking to get his career on track after missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to shoulder surgery.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians sign a veteran to a minor league deal for extra depth, or perhaps a multi-position utility type to fill holes all over the diamond.

Ramirez has said he wants to remain at one single position in 2020 rather than alternate between second and third base, though he is open to playing either position, giving the Indians some flexibility as they look for infield help.  It doesn’t seem like longtime second baseman Jason Kipnis will be brought back at a lower price tag after the Tribe declined his $16.5MM option, leaving the team with Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, and Yu Chang as internal candidates.

Needless to say, the Indians don’t have the payroll space to shop at the very top of the free agent infield market (i.e. Anthony Rendon or old friend Josh Donaldson).  And the presence of top third base prospect Nolan Jones will further preclude any type of truly long-term signing, as Jones could potentially make his MLB debut as early as the second half of the 2020 season.

Players like Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard are coming off big seasons yet could likely be had on one-year contracts.  Along those same lines, productive veterans like Starlin Castro, Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, or former Clevelander Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued in free agency.

Depending on how much the Tribe are willing to spend, Mike Moustakas seems like a realistic option.  The Moose has had trouble finding even a multi-year contract the last two offseasons, despite still swinging an above-average bat and slugging 101 homers over the last three seasons.  Since Moustakas is likely to decline his end of an $11MM mutual option with the Brewers for 2020, a modest two-year offer for maybe only a bit more than that $11MM average annual value should get his attention.

Such a signing would essentially just replace Kipnis’ declined salary commitment with Moustakas — certainly an upgrade on the field, though perhaps not a move the cost-conscious Indians are looking to make.  Spending cuts were a big factor in last year’s offseason moves and even into the year, as evidenced by the trade deadline blockbuster with the Reds and Padres that saw Trevor Bauer moved to Cincinnati, and Reyes, Yasiel Puig, young pitching prospect Logan Allen and two other minor leaguers come to Cleveland.

The biggest looming payroll question, of course, is Lindor’s status as both the Tribe’s best player and biggest trade chip.  Lindor is projected to earn $16.7MM via arbitration next season, a raise of $6.15MM from his 2019 salary, and putting him on a likely path to a salary in the $23MM range for 2021.  Indians owner Paul Dolan’s already-infamous comment from last March that Cleveland fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens” with a potential extension doesn’t overly optimistic about the chances of Lindor staying in a Tribe uniform for the long term.  Dolan’s interview also cited a lack of bonus revenue from postseason games as a reason for last winter’s payroll-lessening measures (the 2018 Indians had just one postseason home game during a three-game sweep at the Astros’ hands in the ALDS), and thus a spending increase doesn’t seem likely coming off a season that saw the Indians miss the playoffs entirely.

Having a superstar like Lindor on the books for roughly $40MM over a two-year span is still a bargain even for a smaller-market team like the Indians, of course, so there’s certainly value in keeping him around.  But given how the Tribe shopped Bauer and Corey Kluber last offseason before eventually moving Bauer at the deadline, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office at least discuss Lindor with other teams this winter if for no other reason to see what a rival could potentially offer.  Needless to say, the Indians would want a haul of MLB-ready talent and prospects to move the All-Star shortstop, but if Cleveland finds a team willing to meet that price, a Lindor trade can’t be ruled out. The Dodgers have already come up as a potential fit for Lindor.

A Lindor trade would be the kind of franchise-altering move that could potentially address all of Cleveland’s offseason needs in one fell swoop.  Dealing Kluber could have brought back a similar package last offseason, though the former two-time AL Cy Young Award winner’s trade value isn’t nearly as high in the wake of a season that saw Kluber make just seven starts due to a fractured forearm and then an oblique strain.

Despite this lost year, Kluber’s $17.5MM club option was still exercised by the Indians.  Letting him go for nothing wouldn’t have been too logical, given the chances that Kluber could quite possibly bounce back and look like his old self.  A Kluber trade can’t be entirely ruled out this offseason, just in case an aggressive team is willing to offer something at least in the neighborhood of a trade package befitting an ace-level pitcher, which would leave Cleveland in an interesting conundrum.

Starting pitching, after all, is the Tribe’s biggest strength.  Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger project as strong front-of-the-rotation arms, with Carlos Carrasco looking to return after battling leukemia last summer, rookies Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both making strong first impressions in 2019, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez on hand as further depth options, and Allen approaching big league readiness.  If Kluber and Carrasco both return to form, the Indians will be left with the enviable problem of having almost too much pitching, though that depth will almost surely be necessary given the inevitability of injuries or downturns in performance.

An argument could be made that the Indians could turn one of their younger pitchers into a trade chip, though that seems a little less likely given how controllable young arms are such an especially big asset to a lower-payroll team like Cleveland.  The Tribe might also want that extra depth in the fold given the uncertainty around Kluber and Carrasco heading into 2020.  One pitcher who likely won’t be back is Danny Salazar, as two straight years of virtual inactivity will make him a non-tender candidate.

The starting pitching depth could be translated into extra bullpen help, and since the Indians’ relief corps is already pretty solid, any reliever shopping this winter is more likely to take the form of minor league signings.  There probably isn’t quite enough depth that the Tribe would feel totally secure in trading Brad Hand, and a $7MM salary isn’t onerous for a closer of Hand’s caliber.

Ramirez and Carrasco are the only two Cleveland players on guaranteed contracts for 2021, and several big names (Santana, Kluber, Hand, Perez) are on club options for that season.  Though Lindor and many other key talents will still be in their arbitration or pre-arb years, 2020 stands a pivotal year for this core group given the amount of roster churn that could be on the horizon next winter.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have shown a lot of creativity in assembling this roster and supplementing it with a strong pipeline of young players, especially pitchers.  Yet the Twins’ emergence in the AL Central has narrowed the Indians’ margin for error rather considerably, and another missed postseason could lead to many more tough decisions.

MLBTR Poll: Francisco Lindor’s Future

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We may be in for at least a couple of months of rumors centering on superstar Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, who came up in trade speculation earlier Monday. The Dodgers are reportedly set to explore taking an offseason run at Lindor, already a four-time All-Star who won’t turn 26 until next month. Los Angeles is likely part of a large group of teams with interest in Lindor, as he’s clearly an elite, in-his-prime player who holds down one of baseball’s most valuable positions with aplomb.

In Cleveland’s shoes, it’s hardly a slam dunk the team will market Lindor. Since Lindor debuted in 2015, the Indians have come within striking distance of a World Series title, they’ve won three division championships and haven’t finished below .500. Even this season, which was a disappointment and non-playoff campaign for the club, it still won 93 games. Lindor was no small part of the Indians’ latest respectable performance, as he accounted for 4.4 fWAR, 34 home runs and 22 stolen bases despite missing the first couple weeks of the season with calf and ankle injuries. Factoring in his most recent output, the switch-hitting Lindor is tied with the venerable Jose Altuve for sixth among position players in fWAR (27.2).

Thanks to Lindor’s career-long brilliance, he’s set to earn a somewhat lofty salary in 2020 – his penultimate year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor will rake in $16.7MM, which obviously isn’t the type of salary just any team could absorb. However, Lindor is spectacular enough to make it worthwhile, and with the possible exception of Didi Gregorius, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops offers little in the way of answers. With that in mind, the Indians probably wouldn’t have difficulty landing appealing offers for Lindor.

Of course, whether the Indians are willing to seriously consider moving Lindor (or someone like right-hander Corey Kluber, another speculative trade candidate) is in question. There still appears to be enough talent on hand for the team to push for a playoff berth next season, after all. The Indians could easily retain Lindor and attempt to make another run at a World Series in 2020, or they could at least keep him until the July trade deadline and see where they stand at that point. That said, the trade value of Lindor is surely high now, and the small-market Indians appear highly unlikely to extend him before he’s eligible to reach free agency. Perhaps the upcoming winter is the right time to aggressively market Lindor, then. How do you expect it to pan out?

(Poll link for app users)

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