Minor MLB Transactions: 12/9/18
Keeping up with the latest minor moves from around baseball:
- Former White Sox outfielder Dayan Viciedo has re-signed with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball on a three-year deal, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The contract’s “believed” to be worth $10MM, per Heyman. Viciedo, who will turn 30 in March, last played in the majors in 2014. He immigrated to NPB prior to the 2016 season and has since slashed .298/.371/.505 with 66 home runs in 1,420 trips to the plate.
Earlier updates:
- The Rockies have signed right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez to a minor league contract, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports. Gonzalez was a first-round pick of the Rangers in 2013 who combined for 77 1/3 innings with them from 2015-16, but he struggled to a 4.54 ERA/5.06 FIP with ugly strikeout and walk rates (4.31 K/9, 4.77 BB/9) during that span. Gonzalez then underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017, leading the Rangers to non-tender him and then re-sign him to a minors pact in the ensuing offseason. The 26-year-old threw just 10 innings at the lower levels of the minor leagues in 2018 as he worked his way back. Gonzalez is now pitching in the Dominican league, Eddy notes.
- The Reds have re-signed outfielder Aristides Aquino to a minor league deal, Eddy tweets (and as Greeneville Reds play-by-play announcer Justin Rocke first reported earlier this week). Cincinnati non-tendered Aquino last week, but it was reported at the time that the team was interested in bringing him back. The 24-year-old will now remain with the Reds, his only professional organization since he signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2011. Aquino played almost exclusively at the Double-A level from 2017-18 and combined to hit .227/.293/.421 with 37 home runs in 949 plate appearances, though he did appear in one Reds game last season.
West Notes & Rumors: Dodgers, Puig, Kemp, Rox, Rangers
Yasiel Puig has been popular in trade rumors dating back to 2016, but the Dodgers have nonetheless retained the outfielder to this point. However, it’s possible that will change this offseason – perhaps as early as the upcoming week’s Winter Meetings. The Dodgers limited Puig’s playing time against left-handed pitchers in 2018, which has left him “disgruntled,” “distrustful of management” and “open” to playing for another team, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times writes. While the right-handed Puig has offered above-average production versus lefties over his career, he has struggled against them since 2017, leading to diminished at-bats last season. Still, it’s not certain the Dodgers will trade the 28-year-old Puig, Hernandez suggests, adding that he likely wouldn’t bring much back in a deal. And the Dodgers aren’t interested in dumping Puig’s projected $11.3MM salary for the sake of doing it, per Hernandez. Rather, it seems they’d want a legitimate return for Puig’s last year of team control. Consequently, despite Puig’s current dissatisfaction with the Dodgers, he could end up remaining in their uniform in 2019.
- More on the Dodgers, who will attempt to trade outfielder Matt Kemp this winter, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports. The Dodgers reunited with Kemp last December in an unorthodox, luxury tax-based trade with the Braves, and the 34-year-old went on to enjoy a productive season in Los Angeles. Kemp faded during the second half of 2018, however, and is due $21.5MM in 2019 – the last year of his deal. The former MVP candidate will be extremely difficult for LA to move, then, though perhaps it could swap him for another team’s unwanted contract.
- With the Rockies looking to upgrade an offense that was woeful in 2018, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post focuses on first base and the outfield as areas they could attempt to strengthen. In an ideal world, the Rockies would add a power-hitting first basemen, enabling them to shift Ian Desmond to the outfield, Saunders notes. As for A.J. Pollock, the best free-agent center fielder available, his current asking price is likely out of the Rockies’ range, according to Saunders.
- Given that the rebuilding Rangers don’t figure to contend in the next couple years, they should consider trading the likes of Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara this offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News opines. Although the 25-year-old Profar finally began living up to his top prospect billing in 2018, and is only projected to earn $3.4MM in 2019, the infielder is not under control past 2020. Mazara, 23, will be similarly affordable next season ($3.7MM), the outfielder’s first of three potential arbitration years, but hasn’t yet delivered on the hype he garnered as a prospect.
Mets, Others Involved In J.T. Realmuto Market
TODAY: The Mets are “resistant” on including Rosario in a deal, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). It seems the Marlins have at least some level of interest, unsurprisingly, in Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario.
All things considered, it does not appear at present as if the sides have settled upon a clear potential deal structure. There could well be other moving parts to getting something done. After all, the Mets would need to fill in for any departing MLB assets while the Marlins could conceivably involve a third team to spin off any acquired MLB pieces.
YESTERDAY, 8:32pm: The Mets have spoken to the Marlins and are at least considering the possibility of including Nimmo as a centerpiece in a Realmuto deal, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That said, Sherman cautions that there’s no deal close and that the Marlins are still in talks with multiple other clubs.
However, whether that would be enough for the Mets remains to be seen. Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins don’t view Nimmo as a potential Realmuto centerpiece and would prefer Rosario or Conforto to headline a package of young players instead. That’s at least somewhat curious, given the fact that Conforto has only one more season of club control remaining than Realmuto.
6:55pm: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that it’s unlikely the Mets would include Conforto in a trade for Realmuto.
5:35pm: Trade chatter surrounding J.T. Realmuto will persist throughout the offseason following the definitive declaration that he won’t be signing an extension with the Marlins. While the Marlins reportedly have a preference to trade Realmuto outside of the division, Andy Martino of SNY writes that the Mets are looking into Realmuto now that they officially have Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz on board. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, in fact, reports that the Mets reached out on Realmuto earlier today and are being “aggressive” in their pursuit (Twitter links).
Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that the belief is that the Mets would have to include at least one young Major Leaguer in order to pry Realmuto loose from Miami, and Rosenthal suggests the same. (The Mets subtracted a pair of high-end prospects from its system when trading outfielder Jarred Kelenic and right-hander Justin Dunn to Seattle in the Cano/Diaz swap.) Martino speculated that Amed Rosario‘s name could come into play, and Rosenthal adds both Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto as the type of talents that could pique Miami’s interest. Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Mets would have any actual interest in dealing from that promising young trio. More specifically Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Rosario and Nimmo would be Miami’s top two targets in talks.
The Mets already tendered contracts to both Kevin Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud, though either could be traded elsewhere or designated for assignment anyway, should the organization land an upgrade in the form of Realmuto. (Speculatively, either could also be sent back to Miami as a short-term stopgap in the absence of Realmuto.)
Elsewhere in the NL East (which, to this point, has been the runaway most active division in terms of offseason activity), Craig Mish of SiriusXM tweets that the Phillies have inquired on Realmuto but are considered to be a long shot. The Phils presently have Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp as in-house catching options now that Wilson Ramos is a free agent, and they’ve been aggressive early this winter, already acquiring Jean Segura and James Pazos from the Mariners.
Mish also suggests that the Braves have inquired on Realmuto, although both David O’Brien of The Athletic and Heyman have tweeted otherwise. O’Brien indicates that he was somewhat bluntly told there’s no validity to the report that Austin Riley and Mike Soroka have come up in discussions, while Heyman reports that the Braves haven’t even engaged on any serious Realmuto talks this winter. O’Brien further adds that the Braves have shifted their focus to adding a corner outfielder and shoring up the pitching staff (Twitter links).
Looking outside the NL East, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that the Rockies have checked in on the catcher — although talks between the two sides, to this point, have failed to progress. Colorado would make a perfectly logical landing spot, though, given that none of Chris Iannetta, Tony Wolters or Tom Murphy stands out as an obvious front-line option. The Rockies also have plenty of young pitching — much of it MLB-ready, which would surely be of interest to the Marlins as they continue to build for the future.
It’s worth remembering, too, that the clubs here likely only represent a fraction of the market for Realmuto. Heyman notes that 14 teams have inquired with the Marlins about Realmuto this winter, and while clearly not all of those clubs will be particularly aggressive in their pursuit, the sheer volume underscores how many teams view the All-Star backstop as a potential difference maker. A trade isn’t necessarily guaranteed, but it’s likely that Realmuto’s value is at its apex this winter. The Marlins surely know that their time with Realmuto is limited following comments from agent Jeff Berry and, per Mish, a pair of rejected extension offers of four and five years in length (both at prices that are nowhere near Realmuto’s actual market value).
Rockies Non-Tender Sam Howard
The Colorado Rockies non-tendered Sam Howard yesterday, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com (via Twitter). Howard is now a free agent.
Howard, 25, made his major league debut last season, appearing in four games for the Rockies and giving up just a single earned run in four innings. The Georgia native was a third round pick of the Rockies in 2014, spending most of his time in the minors as a starter. Last year with Triple A Albuquerque, Howard started 21 games, earning a 3-8 record with a 4.95 ERA.
The Rockies will presumably look into bringing Howard back, but with their 40-man roster maxed out, the non-tender gives Colorado a valuable roster spot to work with.
Meanwhile, Colorado agreed to a new one-year, $1.6875MM deal with lefty Chris Rusin yesterday, while tendering contracts to their other arbitration eligible players. The Rockies 40-man roster now sits at 39.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
With the non-tender deadline looming tomorrow, there figure to be several players agreeing to pre-tender deals to avoid arbitration today. Many players who agree to terms prior to the deadline will be fringe non-tender candidates and, as such, are likelier to sign for less than they’d been projected in order to avoid a non-tender. We’ll keep track of today’s players who are avoiding arbitration in this post (with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)…
- The Royals announced that they’ve agreed to one-year deals with both Cheslor Cuthbert and Jesse Hahn. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (via Twitter) that Cuthbert will earn $850K, while Hahn’s deal contains an $800K base salary. Both were definitive non-tender candidates, as Cuthbert batted just .194/.282/.301 in 117 plate appearances this past season. Hahn, meanwhile, didn’t pitch in 2018 due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament that ultimately required “primary repair” surgery — a similar, but less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that is perhaps familiar to Royals fans after Seth Maness previously underwent the procedure.
Market Chatter: Indians, Moose, Cano, Diaz, Thor, Pads
The Indians‘ rotation has come up in trade rumors over the past month, as Cleveland looks to manage a roster with multiple holes and a crowded payroll that is already at franchise-record levels. However, while Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco have been speculative candidates to be moved, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that teams who’ve spoken to the Indians get the sense that Cleveland is more amenable to trading right-hander Trevor Bauer. Kluber is controlled through 2021, while Carrasco is locked into a club-friendly deal through the 2020 season. Bauer, though, is arbitration-eligible for another two seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to earn $11.6MM in 2019 — a projection he explored at greater length earlier today. If the Indians are to move a starter, there’s some sense behind making it the one of their “big three” who has the shortest amount of team control and least cost certainty, though there’s still no indication that the team is aggressively shopping any of its starters. The ask on Bauer would figure to be huge — likely including pre-arbitration, MLB-ready help — given Bauer’s 2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9 and 44.5 percent grounder rate in 175 1/3 innings in 2018.
Some more notes on the trade and free-agent markets…
- Mike Moustakas is “on the radar” for the Cardinals as they look for a corner infield bat, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. While Cards didn’t show much in the way of interest last winter, the absence of draft-pick compensation being attached to Moustakas is an important distinction that has them at least exploring the possibility this time around. Meanwhile, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards “made a competitive bid” for Josh Donaldson before the 32-year-old signed a one-year, $23MM contract with the Braves. There were similar reports about the Cardinals’ efforts to sign Jason Heyward and David Price, and the Cardinals also came up shy in their pursuit of Giancarlo Stanton last year when the slugger wouldn’t waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to St. Louis. Of course, Moustakas is not likely to generate the level of market interest that those players did.
- There has been quite a lot of chatter regarding Mariners infielder Robinson Cano since it emerged recently that the club would like to find a way to dump his contract, though it’s far from evident whether there’s a particularly realistic match to be found. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand says that some feel the M’s will find a taker, though he later added that Cano hasn’t yet been approached by the team about waiving his no-trade rights or about giving a list of destinations as to which he’d be amenable. (Twitter links.) One key factor in the Cano situation is the notion of the Mariners dealing star closer Edwin Diaz as a means of offloading the money owed Cano. There is indeed some willingness to do so on the part of the Seattle organization, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. But it seems clubs with interest in Diaz aren’t necessarily amenable to taking on enough of the $120MM still owed to Cano to make it work. Sherman lists the Mets, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, and Red Sox as teams angling for Diaz, not all of which have any inclination to pick up Cano. That’s not surprising, as it’s an awfully steep dollar amount, even though the long-time star second baseman does still have value himself on the ballfield. That said, Diaz arguably could command something approaching that whopping sum in a hypothetical open-market scenario. After all, he stands out against any other potentially available relievers this winter for his excellence, age, and control. That makes this general structure at least somewhat plausible, though it’ll surely be quite complicated to pull something off.
- It seems the Mets have quite a few balls in the air at the moment as new GM Brodie Van Wagenen searches for a significant deal that will help jumpstart the franchise. Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link) and Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter) each doused the flames of speculation involving the Mets as a possible match in a Cano swap. But that doesn’t mean the team didn’t explore the subject with the Mariners. SNY.tv’s Andy Martino suggested some possible scenarios involving Cano, though really the basic framework does not seem workable from the Seattle side. Martino says the clubs have batted around a concept in which Seattle would both pay about $50MM of Cano’s salary and take on more in return, such as through Jay Bruce‘s $26MM contract, while sending Diaz or Mitch Haniger to New York. Trouble is, the implication there is that the Mets could buy one of those excellent young players for less than $50MM, which doesn’t seem like sufficient salary relief for the Mariners to justify the loss of such core talent.
- Meanwhile, the biggest name seemingly in play on the Mets‘ side is Noah Syndergaard, the uber-talented but health-questionable young righty. The Padres have made clear they won’t part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., per Martino, which dovetails with expectations. While the report indicates that the teams have also discussed San Diego backstop Austin Hedges, he certainly does not profile as a centerpiece in a deal for Syndergaard. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription links) suggests the Rockies could be an under-the-radar suitor for Syndergaard, who’d turn their rotation into a potentially outstanding unit. Though the offense is surely the priority in Colorado, that can be addressed through relatively low-cost investments; adding Thor, meanwhile, is surely an intriguing thought.
Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado
Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2019 projections are available right here.
Nolan Arenado already earned $17.75 million in 2018, and put together another storied season. He led the league with 38 home runs, and hit .297 while knocking in 110 runs. He won yet another Gold Glove, yet another Silver Slugger, made the All Star Game, and again finished in the Top 5 of MVP Voting. That makes for his sixth, fourth, fourth, and third consecutive season in each of those accomplishments.
Entering his fourth year of arbitration, it stands to reason that Arenado will earn more than any player ever has in arbitration. After all, Josh Donaldson currently holds that record at $23 million just last year. Since the arbitration system generally awards raises based on platform year performance (except for in the player’s first year of arbitration eligibility), Donaldson’s level of pay would only reflect a $5.25 million raise, which is frankly too small for Arenado.
Indeed, the model predicts a big move up to $26.1MM for Arenado, which would represent a raise of over $8MM from his 2018 salary. Notably, too, there is some uncertainty present, since he earned $17.75 million last year only as part of a two year deal. Players do sometimes get treated differently in the event of returning to arbitration following multi-year deals. In the industry, this is often termed a “re-slot.” Probably the most recent notable example of such was Bryce Harper. In 2017, he received an $8.625 million raise from $5 to $13.625 million after a two-year deal. In that case, Harper had won the MVP Award in the first year of the two covered by the earlier agreement, and may have been treated as someone who would be re-slotted. In this case, if we were to estimate what Arenado would have earned in arbitration in 2018 based on his 2017 performance, we might have guessed $20.7 million rather than $17.75 million.
So, if anything, we would probably expect Arenado to argue for more than $26.1 million based on a re-slotting. Already in uncharted waters in terms of salary, that may or may not be a hard sell. After all, at that point, we would be looking at a “Kimbrel Rule” situation. That “rule” is named after Craig Kimbrel, and basically describes the maximum amount that we should expect a player to break the record raise for his service class. This rule exists because Craig Kimbrel’s first year of arbitration eligibility was so unique that my model had him earning significantly more than any closer had ever earned. We therefore capped his projection. The Kimbrel rule as applied to Arenado would give him a $26.75 million maximum, not much different than his $26.1 million projection.
If we look for comparables, it’s hard to find any for Arenado regardless of the method used to evaluate him. Donaldson would actually be a floor in my estimation. He hit .270 with 33 HR and 78 RBI in 2017, but in just 496 PA. With Arenado stepping up to the plate a whopping 673 times, and hitting .297 with 38 HR and 110 RBI, he will surely not command a smaller raise than Donaldson’s $6 million.
One potential comparable for Arenado could be teammate Charlie Blackmon, who produced .331/37/104 the year before last, and got a $6.7 million raise. We might expect that to be a rather close match for Arenado, although Blackmon’s ultimate raise was called into question by other agents at the time. Still, if we think that Arenado would come in at about a $6.7 million raise, that would land him at a $24.45 million salary — less than his $26.1 million projection. On the other hand, if Arenado’s Gold Gloves or higher service time factor in, we may still be north of that and closer to his projection.
Arenado will be an interesting, record-breaking case this year. With several complicating factors impacting his case, there’s a fairly large spread of dollars theoretically open for discussion. Ultimately, I suspect that the model is pretty close, but I could see being off by a couple million in either direction.
Mets Claim Jordan Patterson From Rockies
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve claimed outfielder/first baseman Jordan Patterson off waivers from the Rockies. The Mets’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Patterson, 27, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since 2016 but has enjoyed plenty of success in Triple-A to this point in his career. In parts of three seasons, the left-handed-hitting Patterson is a .282/.363/.516 hitter with Triple-A Albuquerque, though Mets fans should be plenty familiar with the caveat that the Pacific Coast League is an immensely hitter-friendly environment. Defensively, Patterson has nearly 3200 innings in right field, more than 2000 innings at first base and more than 300 innings in left field.
NL Notes: Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals
Nolan Arenado projects to head up the 2019-20 free agent class, and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post finds similarities with Matt Holliday’s departure from the franchise a decade ago. Holliday explained to Saunders why he found the Rockies’ final contract extension offer “disappointing,” while former GM Dan O’Dowd also provided his contrasting recollection of the situation.
- Holliday also took part in a fascinating lunch with members of the St. Louis Cardinals coaching crew recently. Manager Mike Shildt, bench coach Oliver Marmol and new hitting coach Jeff Albert shared a chance meal with Holliday at the Cardinals’ training facility in Jupiter, Florida where Holliday spends his offseason. Per the Athletic’s Bernie Miklasz, the foursome spent their lunch session talking hitting approaches, data usage and baseball philosophy. Specifically, Shildt hopes to improve the Cardinals contact rates this season, hence the hiring of Albert, who specializes in helping players refine their approach at the plate. One interesting exercise Albert used in his former post with the Astros involved making hitters verbally identify a pitch as a ball or a strike during batting practice. With repetition, Houston players improved in their ability to accurately differentiate balls from strikes. Shildt began shifting the Cardinals to a more contact-oriented approach when he replaced Mike Matheny last season, but this year he’ll have reinforcements in his efforts to further decrease the Cardinals’ strikeout rate.
- Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com suggests the Nationals might not be finished in their search for a frontline catcher, despite the recent signing of Kurt Suzuki. The 35-year-old backstop may easily give the Nats 50 to 60 games behind the dish, but few teams employ a true workhouse catcher nowadays and Suzuki might be better suited as the lesser half of a catching tandem. Kerzel imagines the possible ways in which GM Mike Rizzo might pair Suzuki with Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto or Wilson Ramos, though he admits it is equally likely the Nationals head into next season with Suzuki atop the depth chart. Considering Suzuki was arguably the top option available this winter outside the big three listed above, it would be quite the coup for the Nats to come away with another top option at this juncture. Still, durability concerns for a 35-year-old backstop aren’t wholly unreasonable.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.
A persistent 2018 Rockies club made it into the postseason and won a chance at a divisional series, but ran into a Brewers buzzsaw. They’ll look to carry the momentum into the coming season, but will first face a somewhat tricky offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Charlie Blackmon, OF: $94MM through 2023 (final two seasons via player option)
- Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $40MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
- Wade Davis, RP: $36MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)
- Bryan Shaw, RP: $19.5MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
- Jake McGee, RP: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 club option)
- Mike Dunn, RP: $8MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chris Iannetta, C: $4.75MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 vesting club option)
- Seunghwan Oh, RP: $2.5MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
- Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
- Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
- Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
- Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
- Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM
- Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
- Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bettis, Rusin, Wolters
Option Decisions
- Gerardo Parra, OF: Declined $12.5MM club option in favor of $1.5MM buyout
Free Agents
[Colorado Rockies Depth Chart | Colorado Rockies Payroll Outlook]
How often have we heard the refrain that the Rockies need starting pitching? It has become an annual rite both to cite the need and assume an inability to fulfill it. Yet here we are, staring at a Colorado club that appears to have an effective, affordable, homegrown staff.
There was uncertainty entering the 2018 season, but it largely resolved in the Rockies’ favor. German Marquez and Kyle Freeland emerged as high-quality rotation pieces, with the former turning in the more impressive peripherals and the latter finishing with a sub-3.00 ERA. Despite showing some susceptibility to the long ball and enduring some tough stretches, Jon Gray mostly appears to be another front-of-the-staff asset. And Tyler Anderson was a sturdy piece who turned in 32 useful starts.
That’s a strong four-man rotation group that could form an excellent building block in 2019 and beyond. Filling out the starting unit remains necessary. Antonio Senzatela and Chad Bettis (if tendered) would perhaps be the top internal options, with competition and depth provided by a handful of others who have some MLB experience or appear close to getting a first shot. Jeff Hoffman is the best-known name, but the 40-man roster also includes lefty Sam Howard and right-handers Yency Almonte, Jesus Tinoco, and Ryan Castellani.
None of these candidates is a slam dunk, so it’s certainly possible the Rox will add an arm to the mix via free agency, trade or claim. GM Jeff Bridich has not used the open market to build his rotation, though that may just be a reflection of the internal candidates and external opportunities he has encountered. It’s hard to get a read here, truly. The Rockies could justifiably seek anything from veteran depth all the way up to a top-of-the-rotation piece in the right circumstances, but odds are that a major portion of the Rockies’ resources will not be dedicated to the rotation. There are more glaring needs, after all, in other areas.
One portion of the roster that owner Dick Monfort has greenlighted spending on is the bullpen, with the Rockies bringing in a parade of free agents on fairly significant contracts — few of which have really worked out as hoped. Their best relievers in 2018 came from other avenues, with the homegrown Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg emerging and later being joined by Seunghwan Oh in a summer trade. While the latter two will return in setup roles in front of expensive closer Wade Davis, Ottavino is now a free agent.
Davis, of course, was the biggest splurge of all the recent reliever signings. He was generally effective but not dominant in 2018, leading the National League with 43 saves and compiling 10.7 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 but also ending with only a 4.13 ERA. A notable drop in his swinging-strike rate leaves some cause for concern, but the Rockies at least have reason to think Davis can anchor the pen in the season to come. The outlook is far murkier for the other recent free agent splashes: Shaw and McGee combined to allow more than six earned per nine innings in 2018 while Mike Dunn was injured and ineffective. Meanwhile, Chris Rusin hit a wall, Harrison Musgrave was mediocre, and no other pitcher contributed even twenty frames.
So, will the Rockies dare return to free agency to buttress this unit? Perhaps, but there’s already so much cash tied up in the relief corps that it’d be hard to keep throwing money at the problem. Plus, there are some in-house possibilities to consider. The aforementioned Almonte did have a strong showing in 14 appearances, though the club did not see fit to utilize him in the postseason. Tinoco showed some promise as a relief candidate in the Arizona Fall League. And southpaw DJ Johnson had an interesting season that could suggest he’s ready for a full go at the bigs.
It’s arguable, then, that the bullpen ought to be approached in much the same way as the rotation: if an opportunity arises to achieve good value in making an improvement, then it ought to be considered. Certainly, the org could reinvest money that would have gone to Bettis and Rusin if they are non-tendered; picking up a few relievers on low-cost MLB or low-risk minors contracts seems wise. But perhaps it’s time the Rockies retired the strategy of targeting certain veteran pen pieces and out-bidding the market to get them.
If the Rockies are to make a true splash, then, it will likely be on a bat of some kind. The 2018 lineup simply had too many holes, with only four players accumulating two or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. One of those, second baseman DJ LeMahieu, barely reached that level and is in any event a free agent. He’ll be joined on the open market by the Rockies’ fifth-best overall performer from the position-player side, long-time outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. The already porous group, then, has yet more openings to account for.
The left side of the infield is the one place without any questions — at least, that is, unless you’re wondering whether Nolan Arenado or Trevor Story might be willing to sign a long-term contract. Bridich and Monfort have ample reason to open talks with both players this winter. Keeping Arenado from the open market, as they did Charlie Blackmon, will be a major challenge that will present some major risks. Leverage will be tough to come by, but the Rockies decisionmakers may be more inclined to stick to their valuations due to the presence of top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who is steadily rising and could be a significant MLB option in the 2019 season.
Arenado and Story have already earned big 2019 arb raises with their excellent play, the precise amounts of which still need to be negotiated, meaning the club has some tough financial decisions to make elsewhere on the roster. Last year, the Rockies opened with a club-record Opening Day payroll of about $137MM. They’re already close to having that amount committed to the 2019 roster, at least assuming they tender their entire arb class and pay it something close to MLBTR’s $45.8MM cumulative estimate. Even trimming a few of the marginal members of the group would only open a few million dollars of space. Likewise, some kind of bad contract swap is always imaginable, but the Rockies could largely be stuck with their undesirable reliever commitments.
In addition to internal promotions, that leaves two ways to improve the remaining areas of the roster: trading for or signing relatively inexpensive players, on the one hand, or boosting payroll, on the other. A legitimate spending increase would move the Rockies into the upper third of league payroll, breaking new ground for the organization.
Whatever the means are, the Rockies need boosts at several positions. The catching situation stands out, as veteran Chris Iannetta did not excel at the plate in his first season in Colorado. He’s assured of one spot, but it’d be disappointing to continue fielding the anemic bat of Tony Wolters or simply to hope that Tom Murphy will make good on his promise. The Rockies are one of a handful or two of contenders that ought to make serious inquiries on Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto, although there’s little question the Fish would clamor for Rodgers in return. Though free agent Wilson Ramos seems a poor match, given the lack of a DH and his history of leg injuries, long-time division rival Yasmani Grandal would make for a fine target — if Monfort finds some money under the mattress. Robinson Chirinos or Martin Maldonado might be the right fit, balancing quality and cost, or the club could roll the dice a bit on Matt Wieters or Brian McCann to set up some platoon balance, with Murphy’s presence helping to diversify the risk. One intriguing option might be for the Rockies to send one of their underperforming relievers in a salary-swapping deal of some kind for a player such as Jason Castro or Alex Avila.
It’s debatable where the next-most-pressing need lies, in no small part because the remaining openings overlap. Let’s start by setting the stage: even after CarGo’s departure, the Rockies’ three best outfielders are all left-handed hitters (Blackmon, David Dahl, and Raimel Tapia). Ian Desmond has unfortunately been a deficient offensive performer since arriving, and is blocking a more potent bat at first base. And there’s a vacancy at second base, with the left-handed-hitting Ryan McMahon and righty swinging Garrett Hampson factoring strongly while Rodgers looms.
From my vantage point, it seems clear that Desmond ought to stuff his first baseman’s mitt into the back of his locker as a starting point. The club should not continue to put a marginal hitter in a spot that can easily (and cheaply) support much greater offensive output. Even if he doesn’t bounce back much at the plate, though, Desmond could be a sensible-enough fourth outfielder who’d limit the exposure of the existing top trio to left-handed pitching. Or, instead, Noel Cuevas or some outside acquisition — Cameron Maybin, say, or a buy-low trade candidate like Aaron Altherr, Domingo Santana, or Keon Broxton — could take the duty of right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder, leaving Desmond to serve as more of a true utility piece who could appear all over the diamond.
Moving Desmond off of first base would leave the Rockies free to pursue any number of bigger bats. C.J. Cron, for instance, is available right now with a meager projected salary of $5.2MM (potentially less if he clears waivers) after being dumped by the Rays. He out-hit all but two Rockies players in 2018. And the market is loaded with alternatives. Justin Smoak would make for a plausible trade target, while perhaps a wild Carlos Santana salary-swapping arrangement isn’t out of the question. Greg Bird of the Yankees may be out of time there but thrived as an amateur in Colorado. Justin Bour is a free agent now, along with fellow lefty swingers Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison as well as right-handed-hitting old friend Mark Reynolds.
It’s also possible that the Rockies could go without a true first baseman or a single, regular second bagger — particularly if they prefer to maintain greater defensive flexibility. Beyond Desmond, Hampson can play short or second, perhaps obviating the need for Pat Valaika or another glove-only infield reserve, and has also dabbled in the outfield. McMahon hasn’t yet appeared on the grass but does have experience at the 3-4-5 infield spots. Perhaps the club should seek yet more variability in targeting new players. Daniel Murphy would be an intriguing fit as a player who can line up at second or first while providing a lineup boost, or Neil Walker could do so at a lower rate of pay. (Brad Miller might be a minor-league-contract version of that concept.) Likewise, the righty-swinging Brian Dozier could be worth a look as a buy-low candidate who could see time in either spot on the right side of the infield. We’ve already heard of the Rockies’ interest in Marwin Gonzalez. He’d be a wonderful fit in this sort of a scheme, though he’s not going to come cheap. Josh Harrison might offer a more budget-friendly version of the same profile. Undesirable contracts (e.g., Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro) and potential cast-away arb-eligible players (e.g., Joe Panik, Devon Travis) could also provide avenues.
When the Rockies signed Desmond, the team said it had targeted a baseball player rather than a position, noting that his versatility would come in handy over the life of the contract. Using him more loosely now would free up an immense number of possibilities, opening the door to more offensive production (including through greater platoon usage) in a cost-efficient manner (not least of which because they’ll be selling free agent hitters on a chance to bat at altitude). It’d be great if the Rockies could figure a way to spend or finagle their way to a true regular at first, second, the outfield, and/or behind the dish. If not, though, they can use some flexible existing resources and combine them with versatile outside assets to make an intriguing supporting cast for the strong rotation and trio of star position players. Keeping up with the Dodgers will not be an easy feat, particularly with resource limitations, but there seem to be some creative avenues that make it imaginable.